Short
Long
3 Key Bitcoin Signals That Could Indicate a Cycle BottomHello everyone,
Before you review the analysis, please pay close attention to the educational section first.
1. What Is an Inverted Hammer?
An inverted hammer is a candlestick that forms at the end of a downtrend and can signal a potential trend reversal.
2. What Is Miner Capitulation?
Miner capitulation refers to a situation where major Bitcoin miners are forced to surrender or sell their Bitcoin holdings, often due to financial pressure.
3. What Is Strategy Capitulation?
Strategy capitulation refers to Bitcoin sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) near a cycle bottom, potentially due to financial pressure, the need to cover expenses, prevent bankruptcy, or meet dividend obligations.
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First, Let’s Start With the Inverted Hammer
At the bottoms of the three Bitcoin cycles in 2019, 2022, and 2026, an inverted hammer pattern appeared on the monthly timeframe.
This pattern can signal a potential trend reversal, especially if we are approaching the end of a four-year cycle and a bear market, and particularly when it is combined with miner capitulation.
Now, if next month begins with a bullish candle, it could be a positive sign for the beginning of the next bullish cycle.
Second: Miner Capitulation and Strategy Capitulation
Let’s look at some examples.
December 2018
Miner Capitulation | Severe selling pressure from miners and a sharp decline in hashrate
December 2022
Miners were selling BTC to survive; approximately 40,300 out of 40,700 BTC produced by the 10 largest miners had been sold by the end of November.
We also witnessed miner selling in 2026.
Now, let’s take a look at Strategy.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold Bitcoin once in December 2022.
In August 2026, both Strategy and MARA Digital began selling some of their Bitcoin holdings.
So, let’s answer the important question:
Should We Be Afraid and Run?
We need to look at why they are selling:
🔴 Selling to survive, repay debt, cover expenses, or avoid bankruptcy → this can be a sign of capitulation.
🟠 Selling due to treasury management or profit-taking → this does not necessarily indicate a cycle bottom.
🟢 A large company selling without financial pressure → by itself, this is not a reliable signal that the bear market is ending.
When Strategy and miners are selling Bitcoin because they need to cover expenses or avoid bankruptcy, it can often be a clear sign that we are approaching a Bitcoin cycle bottom.
Putting Everything Together
So, friends, when we put all these factors together — miner capitulation, Strategy capitulation, the monthly inverted hammer, the proximity to day 373 after the market top, and the beginning of the next cycle — they collectively give us an important warning:
Either we are already at the Bitcoin cycle bottom, or we are very close to it.
Don't forget that this is not financial advice.
I am simply presenting a broader idea for you to consider, based on the chart, on-chain data, and historical cycles.
Best regards,
Amir Ghasemi
Long
XAUUSD — Buy the H4 PullbackFundamental Analysis
Gold has eased after reaching a fresh multi-month high as rising oil prices revived inflation concerns and pushed Treasury yields higher. Markets are now focused on the July CPI release on August 12 and PPI on August 13; hotter inflation could strengthen rate-hike expectations, while softer data may support gold again. The Fed currently holds rates at 3.50%–3.75%.
Technical Analysis
On the 4H chart, XAUUSD is trading near 4,389 after reaching 4,435.25 and sweeping the nearest buy-side liquidity. The broader structure remains bullish, but price is extended after a strong displacement from the 3,996 low. The preferred plan is to wait for an H4 correction into 4,267–4,332, where the Fibonacci 0.236–0.382 levels and the marked pullback zone converge. If buyers defend this area, gold could recover toward 4,435 before targeting higher liquidity.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,389.58
Main buy zone: 4,267–4,332
Short-term support: 4,267.47
Short-term resistance: 4,435.25
Liquidity area: 4,435–4,450
Main target: 4,435–4,450
Invalidation: below 4,245
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 4,267–4,332
Stop Loss: 4,245
Take Profit 1: 4,360
Take Profit 2: 4,400
Take Profit 3: 4,435–4,450
Buy Condition
Wait for a controlled H4 pullback into the marked value zone and clear bullish confirmation. A liquidity sweep, long lower wick, bullish engulfing candle, failed breakdown below 4,267, or reclaim above 4,332 may confirm renewed buyer pressure. If price breaks and holds below 4,245, the pullback setup is no longer valid.
Overall View
The H4 structure remains bullish, but buying near 4,390 after the recent expansion offers limited value. The preferred plan is to wait for a retracement into 4,267–4,332 and look for confirmation before targeting another test of 4,435. CPI volatility could provide the liquidity move needed for that pullback.
Do you expect gold to retrace into the H4 pullback zone before challenging 4,435 again? 
Long
Short 
Short
BTCUSDT: Retest Support Can Opens the Path Toward 64,600$Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup.
Market Analysis
BTCUSDT previously formed a Head and Shoulders pattern before recovering above the 62,700 Support Zone. Price then moved higher and recently broke above the descending triangle resistance line, signaling a potential bullish shift.
Currently, BTCUSDT is trading below the 64,600 Resistance Zone while holding above the 62,700 Support Zone and the rising trendline. The recent breakout suggests that buyers are attempting to regain control.
My Scenario & Strategy
As long as BTCUSDT remains above the 62,700 Support Zone and respects the rising trendline, the bullish scenario remains valid. A continuation higher could push price toward the 64,600 Resistance Zone (TP1).
However, if BTCUSDT breaks back below 62,700, the bullish outlook would weaken and increase the risk of a deeper correction.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk. Long 
Long 
Long 
H1 Bullish Continuation Toward Buy-Side LiquidityXAUUSD is trading around 4,396 after maintaining a clear sequence of bullish BOS inside the ascending price channel. Price is consolidating below the next liquidity cluster, but the H1 structure continues to favour buyers.
Gold remains supported after weak U.S. labour data reduced expectations for immediate Fed tightening. Markets are now waiting for July CPI, scheduled today at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July but maintained that inflation remains elevated, making today’s inflation print a major volatility catalyst.
Technical View
The H1 structure remains bullish after multiple BOS confirmations and the latest expansion toward 4,430.
Price is currently testing the 4,380–4,405 immediate resistance area. A controlled pullback toward 4,360–4,380 could provide the next higher-low structure before continuation.
The first major upside objective is the 4,425–4,445 buy-side liquidity zone. Acceptance above this area would expose the major resistance zone around 4,470–4,490.
The broader bullish structure remains protected by institutional demand around 4,215–4,235.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,396
Buy Priority: 4,360–4,380
Immediate resistance: 4,380–4,405
Buy-side liquidity: 4,425–4,445
Major resistance: 4,470–4,490
Institutional demand: 4,215–4,235
Bullish invalidation: below 4,350
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,360–4,380
Condition: wait for an H1 pullback followed by bullish rejection, liquidity-sweep reclaim or higher-low confirmation.
SL: below 4,350
TP1: 4,425–4,445
TP2: 4,470
TP3: 4,480–4,490
Important Note
Avoid chasing price inside immediate resistance. CPI may produce aggressive liquidity sweeps before direction stabilizes.
A sustained H1 close below 4,350 would weaken the immediate continuation structure and increase the risk of a deeper correction.
Final View
Gold remains bullish on H1. The cleaner setup is a controlled pullback into 4,360–4,380 before targeting buy-side liquidity around 4,440 and major resistance near 4,480.
Will gold build another higher low before the next expansion toward 4,480? Long 
Hellena | OIL (4H): LONG toward the unfilled gap area at 87.59.OIL continues to develop within a complex corrective structure. According to the current wave count, the larger wave "W" has already been completed, while the next part of the correction, wave "X", is now unfolding.
Within wave "X", the price is developing wave "B" of the higher degree. However, the intermediate bearish wave "C" is probably not complete yet.
For this reason, I allow for another decline toward the 72.21 support area before the main bullish move begins. This is where intermediate wave "C" may end and create a foundation for the next advance.
Nevertheless, the bullish scenario remains my priority. An unfilled gap is located around 87.59, and the price has not yet returned to close it completely. This provides an additional reason to expect another move toward this area.
My first bullish target is the 86.10-88.70 resistance area, with 87.59 as the main reference level. The unfilled gap coincides with a significant technical area from which the previous sharp decline began.
I am considering long positions only. An entry may be considered from current levels if a reliable bullish pattern appears, or after wave "C" completes around the 72.21 support area. The second option requires waiting for a clear price reaction within the support zone and using limit orders with strict risk control.
Uncertainty surrounding the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is currently supporting oil prices. At the same time, expectations of recovering supply flows and rising global inventories may limit the upside. The fundamental backdrop therefore remains volatile, although short-term supply risks currently favor higher prices.
Manage your capital properly and wisely! Enter trades only based on reliable patterns! Long 
SpaceX: Relief Rally or Trend Reversal?Earlier in the week, investors were focused on rising AI spending and the impending post-IPO lock-up expiry. By Friday, attention had shifted towards accelerating AI revenues, improving returns on AI investment and the fact that insiders hadn't rushed for the exit. Whether that change in sentiment develops into a broader trend reversal is now becoming a question for the chart rather than the headlines.
The narrative has changed
SpaceX's first quarterly results as a public company gave investors plenty to think about. Revenue almost doubled compared with a year earlier, supported by continued growth across Starlink and the company's expanding AI business. Management also argued that its AI infrastructure is beginning to generate returns far more quickly than many had expected, with new compute capacity paying for itself in less than a year.
Earlier in the week, however, those positives were largely overshadowed by concerns over the sheer scale of investment required to deliver that growth. Capital expenditure remained exceptionally high, free cash flow stayed negative and investors questioned how long Starlink's cash generation could continue funding such an ambitious expansion.
By the end of the week, the conversation had changed. The first post-IPO lock-up period passed without the wave of insider selling many had anticipated, removing one of the market's biggest concerns almost overnight. An analyst upgrade and improving sentiment across the tech sector added further support, allowing investors to place greater emphasis on the company's longer-term growth prospects rather than its near-term spending requirements.
A key retest of broken support
The technical picture naturally reflects the improving shift in sentiment.
After falling almost 30% from the July highs, SpaceX has established a triple bottom around the $107 area before producing its first higher swing high for several weeks. That sequence matters because it interrupts the pattern of lower highs and lower lows that had defined the previous decline and suggests sellers are no longer exerting the same degree of control.
Friday's break above the early August swing high strengthened that message further by confirming the first meaningful higher high of the recovery. On the four-hour chart, the 9-period EMA has also crossed above the 21-period EMA, with both averages now beginning to turn higher. While moving averages should never be viewed in isolation, they reinforce the view that short-term momentum is becoming increasingly constructive.
The next technical challenge now comes into view around $150. When that level broke in July it triggered an aggressive acceleration lower, making it one of the most important technical reference points on the chart. Markets often revisit former support after a major breakdown, and the reaction around those levels can provide valuable insight into whether sentiment has genuinely improved or whether sellers are simply waiting for higher prices to re-enter.
If buyers can continue defending higher lows as the recovery develops, attention is likely to remain focused on that $150 area. How the shares behave once they get there may ultimately tell traders far more than last week's impressive rally.
SpaceX Four-Hour Candle Chart
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BTCUSD: Sellers in Control, Buyers at the Edge🔹 BTCUSD is currently showing a bearish market structure after a sharp downside move from the 65,000–65,400 area. Price has shifted below previous structure and is now consolidating around the 63,300–63,600 support zone. The chart highlights a nearby liquidity area around 64,450, while the recent lows suggest that sell-side liquidity remains relevant below the current range. This price action suggests that BTCUSD is attempting to stabilize after the recent decline.
🔸 A possible scenario is a liquidity sweep beneath the current support zone, followed by a bullish reaction if buyers regain short-term structure. If confirmed, price could potentially revisit the higher liquidity area near 64,450. However, continued weakness below the highlighted demand zone could expose further downside and maintain the bearish structure. Traders may wait for clear price confirmation before considering any trade. This BTCUSD technical analysis focuses on price action, market structure, support, resistance, and liquidity.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions. Long 
SOLUSDT: What Happens Next?🔹 SOLUSDT is showing a recovery from the lower demand area, with price reclaiming the 75.00 region and pushing toward the 76.40–76.60 resistance zone. The recent move has created a short-term bullish structure, while the highlighted upper supply area around 76.60–77.15 remains an important reaction zone. Price action suggests that liquidity may be building above the recent highs, with the broader structure still requiring confirmation around resistance.
🔸 If SOLUSDT faces rejection from the highlighted resistance zone, price could rotate lower toward the nearby liquidity area around 74.60–75.00. A sustained move above resistance, if confirmed by further price action, could instead support another attempt toward the upper range. Traders may wait for confirmation before considering any trade, while a failure of the lower support area could expose the major support zone near 73.50. This keeps the current setup focused on price action, market structure, support, resistance, and liquidity.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions. 
Short
Pullback Before 4,460? | XAUUSD 12/08Gold is holding a strong H1 bullish structure after the expansion from the 4,230–4,245 Order Block. Price has reclaimed the 4,340–4,355 liquidity area and continues to form higher highs and higher lows.
With price currently around 4,396, I expect the main intraday path to be a pullback first, followed by another bullish expansion if the reaction is confirmed.
📊 Today's Market Outlook
My bias: Bullish
The path I am watching today:
4,396 → 4,360–4,375 → bullish reaction → 4,420 → 4,450–4,460
I do not want to chase the current price. The preferred opportunity is to wait for price to retrace into the 4,360–4,375 reaction zone.
🎯 Trading Plan
Potential Entry: 4,360–4,375
Confirmation: Lower-timeframe bullish MSS/CHoCH after the reaction
Stop Loss: 4,330
TP1: 4,420
TP2: 4,450
TP3: 4,460
Using the middle of the entry zone around 4,368:
TP1 ≈ 1:1.4 R
TP2 ≈ 1:2.2 R
TP3 ≈ 1:2.5 R
The idea is not to enter simply because price touches the zone. I want to see liquidity being taken and buyers regain short-term structure before considering the continuation setup.
🔎 Why 4,360–4,375?
This area sits below the current price and above the broader 4,340–4,355 liquidity zone.
If price pulls back into this area and holds, it would provide a cleaner location to look for bullish confirmation while keeping the invalidation clearly below the recent structure.
🎯 Upside Targets
4,420 is the first liquidity target.
If price accepts above this area, attention shifts toward 4,450–4,460, where the External BSL is located.
I would not automatically expect a reversal at 4,420 or 4,460. The reaction after the liquidity sweep is what matters.
⚠️ Invalidation & Bearish Scenario
The bullish setup is invalidated if price produces a sustained H1 close below 4,330.
In that case, the expected path changes:
4,330 breakdown → 4,300–4,320 → 4,230–4,245 H1 OB
A bearish MSS/CHoCH after the breakdown would provide additional confirmation for the downside scenario.
🧠 Key Insight
The structure is bullish, but the better location is below the current price.
For today, I am watching 4,360–4,375 as the main decision zone, 4,420 as the first liquidity target, and 4,450–4,460 as the major upside objective.
The key is simple:
Pullback → reaction → confirmation → continuation. Short 
[XAUUSD M30] Internal BMS Confirmed: Re-testing 4,440 Ceiling Before the Major Liquidity Flush.
⚖️ Macro Backdrop & Order Flow: Institutional Buying Interest Defends Mid-Pivot Floor
Gold continues its high-probability structural expansion on the M30 timeframe, floating near the 4,405.965 region (-0.12% intraday) as institutional order flow maintains complete control above the medium-term trend baseline (Mid: 4,389.4525 / Trend: Positive).
Following a clean sweep into the lower discount demand block near 4,360 - 4,370, Smart Money engineered a sharp internal Change of Character (CHoCH) and Break of Market Structure (BMS), confirming that buyers are actively defending dips to pave the way for a retest of higher liquidity ceilings.
📉 Technical Narrative: Structural Alignment & Playbook Roadmap
The M30 structural blueprint on XAUUSD outlines a textbook SMC rebalancing and markup delivery:
1. Internal BMS & Higher High Trajectory: Price executed a technical pullback from the fresh HH peak (4,435 - 4,440 area), mitigated the Primary Demand Zone 1, and printed an internal BMS to realign lower-timeframe momentum back to the upside.
2. Premium Resistance Ceiling (4,435 — 4,440 Area): The immediate upside target for the current expansion leg. A decisive M30 close above this peak will validate further bullish continuation toward higher macro targets.
3. Primary Demand Zone 1 (4,360 — 4,375 Corridor): The critical S/R flip and rebalancing floor. As long as price holds above this zone, the immediate intraday bias remains firmly bullish.
4. Discount Demand Zone 2 (4,310 — 4,320 Area): The deeper structural floor resting at the base of the expansion wave. If a high-volume macro flush occurs, this area provides extreme discount pricing for long-term accumulation.
🔄 IF-THEN Playbook (Execution Scenarios):
• IF price maintains momentum above the 4,389 Mid-Pivot and pushes through 4,410 -> THEN expect a direct expansion drive to retest the 4,435 - 4,440 Higher High Peak.
• IF price rejects the 4,435 - 4,440 ceiling with strong lower-timeframe bearish price action (M1/M5 CHoCH Rejection) -> THEN look for premium short opportunities targeting a deeper flush back down to Demand Zone 1 (4,360) and potentially Demand Zone 2 (4,310 - 4,320).
• IF price secures a solid M30 candle close below 4,300 -> THEN the immediate bullish structural narrative is invalidated.
🎯 Strategic Metrics Summary:
• Current Floating Price: 4,405
• Trend Dashboard: Positive (Mid: 4,389 | Upper/Lower: Forming)
• Near-Term Resistance Peak: 4,435 — 4,440
• Primary Demand Support 1: 4,360 — 4,375
• Deep Discount Floor 2: 4,310 — 4,320
• Structural Invalidation Level: Decisive M30 close below 4,300
💬 Trader Question: Are you riding this internal BMS expansion back to the 4,440 peak, or are you waiting at the supply ceiling to catch the heavy flush down to 4,320?
Let us know your execution plan in the comments below! 👇 Short 
BTC/USD Bullish Rebound Toward $64,289Bitcoin is holding a key support zone around **$63,400–$63,500** after the recent pullback. Price is showing signs of a rebound from support, while the nearby resistance around **$64,177** is the key level to watch.
A successful break above $64,177 could open the way toward the **$64,289 target**, with further upside possible if bullish momentum strengthens. The broader structure remains sensitive to the marked support zones, so a sustained move below **$63,250** would weaken this bullish setup.
**Target: $64,289**
**Key Support: $63,400–$63,500**
**Key Resistance: $64,177**
Long 
Long 
