XAUUSD: Key Support Zones and Possible Price PathGold is currently trading around the 4,364 area after a strong upward move and a pullback from the recent high near 4,435.
The chart highlights two important reaction zones:
SRT zone: approximately 4,350–4,360
SR Level: approximately 4,300–4,315
The first zone is close to the current price and may be important for observing the next reaction. If price continues to hold above this area, the chart shows a possible move toward the 4,380–4,400 region, followed by the previous high area around 4,435.
If the first zone does not hold, the lower 4,300–4,315 region becomes the next area to watch for a potential reaction.
The blue paths on the chart represent possible scenarios, not a fixed outcome. I will be watching how the candles develop around these marked levels before considering the next move.
Key levels:
🔹 4,350–4,360 — SRT zone
🔹 4,300–4,315 — SR zone
🔹 4,375 — Fibonacci 0.5 area
🔹 4,435 — recent high
Educational chart for market-structure observation. 
Long
Long
Elliott Wave View: GDX Short‑Term Rally Still DevelopingThe short‑term Elliott Wave view in the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) shows that the cycle from the July 17 low remains in progress as a five‑wave impulsive rally. This structure is not yet complete, which implies further upside before a larger corrective phase develops. Wave 1 advanced to $77.99, followed by a pullback in wave 2 that ended at $72.17. From that level, wave 3 began and is unfolding with internal subdivisions that reveal another impulsive sequence of lesser degree. Within this advance, wave ((i)) ended at $76.03, while the corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) concluded at $72.92.
The current leg higher is wave ((iii)), which is expected to finish soon. Once complete, a pullback in wave ((iv)) should occur before another advance develops to complete wave ((v)) of 3. Afterward, the ETF should enter wave 4 and then wave 5, which will finalize the five‑wave rally from the July 17 low. At that point, a larger corrective phase is likely to emerge. Near term, the structure remains constructive as long as the pivot at $72.17 holds. Dips should continue to attract buyers, with corrective sequences unfolding in three, seven, or eleven swings before the next leg higher resumes. Bitcoin— Rising Trendline Breakdown | Bearish Pullback SetupBitcoin has broken below the rising trendline that supported the 1H structure for an extended period.
The breakdown was followed by strong bearish momentum, shifting the short-term market structure toward the downside.
The key area now is the 64,400 zone.
After the breakdown, this area can act as a retest / pullback resistance. Instead of chasing an extended bearish move, I would prefer to see price return toward 64,400 and show bearish rejection or continuation confirmation.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
The short setup is based on continuation below the broken trendline.
BTCUSDT Bitcoin (1h) (Futures)
⬇️ Sell now or sell on 64400.0
⭕️ SL @ 64900.0
🔵 TP1 @ 63000.0
🔵 TP2 @ 62550.0
🔵 TP3 @ 61600.0
The first target is 63,000, followed by the 62,550 area, which is close to the major support zone marked on the chart.
The 62.5K area is an important support, so price action around this region should be monitored carefully rather than assuming an uninterrupted decline toward TP3.
🔴 Invalidation
A move back above 64,400 alone would not necessarily invalidate the entire bearish idea, but it would weaken the immediate continuation setup.
The defined invalidation for this trade is:
SL: 64,900
A sustained recovery above the broken structure would increase the probability that the breakdown was a false move.
Trade Management
Because the breakdown has already produced a significant move, chasing the current price carries more execution risk.
The cleaner setup is a pullback → rejection → continuation.
If price does not provide the expected confirmation, there is no need to force the trade.
This is a short-term Futures setup, while the market can still react strongly around major support levels.
Risk Warning: Futures and leveraged trading involve a high level of risk and can result in significant losses. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always manage position size and risk according to your own trading plan. 
Short
BTC's Biggest Trap Isn't at $82K — It's Waiting at $70K-$72KBTC: Don't Short From Here — The Real Bull Trap Is Still Ahead at $70K-$72K
BTC is setting up what looks like a major bull trap. The final move toward the $70K-$72K FVG zone is still ahead before the real move plays out — this is not the level to be shorting from.
The plan is to open one of the largest short positions of this cycle, but only once price reaches that zone. Limit orders are already set — now it's a matter of waiting for the market to come to the entry rather than chasing it here.
Key Levels:
🔴 Entry Zone (short): 70,000 – 72,000
🔵 1st Target: 57,000
🔵 2nd Target: 49,000
⚫ Stop Loss: 79,000
📉 Bias: Bearish above current levels, short trigger at 70K-72K
Analysis:
The prior call on the $82K bull trap and the summer drop played out as expected, and the structure now points to one more push higher into the $70K-$72K fair value gap before sellers take control again. Rather than shorting into current price action, the plan is to let the market run into that zone first, where the risk/reward for a short improves significantly with a defined stop above $79K.
If triggered, the first target sits at $57K, with the second target extending down to $49K if momentum follows through. This setup is being treated as the next major call of the cycle — patience for the right entry matters more than reacting early.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Educational purposes only. Always use proper risk management before entering any trade. 
Long
XAUUSD 60M: Observing a Fresh Supply Zone After Drop-Base-DropMarket Structure
On the 60-minute XAUUSD chart, price is currently near an identified Supply Zone that developed through a Drop-Base-Drop (DBD) structure.
The zone is being observed because the formation contains several technically relevant characteristics:
• Fresh zone: The area has not experienced a significant revisit since its formation.
• Strong leg-out: The departure from the base showed notable downside displacement, indicating a meaningful change in price balance at that location.
• Quality basing structure: The base contains a relatively structured consolidation before the subsequent decline.
• Market structure: The formation occurred within a sequence that provides useful context for studying the relationship between consolidation, displacement, and subsequent price movement.
Why the Zone Is Technically Significant
In demand-supply analysis, a DBD structure can be viewed as a period where price temporarily consolidates before continuing lower with stronger displacement.
The resulting supply area represents the price region associated with that transition. When such a zone remains fresh, traders often observe how price behaves when it revisits the area.
A revisit does not automatically imply that the previous reaction will repeat. Instead, the reaction can provide information about the current balance between buying and selling pressure.
What Could Happen During a Revisit?
There are several possible scenarios:
1. Bearish reaction
If price enters the supply area and shows rejection, weakening upward momentum, or renewed downside displacement, the zone could continue to behave as an area of selling pressure.
2. Bullish continuation through the zone
If price moves through the supply area with sustained bullish displacement, the zone could lose its previous structural significance. This may indicate that the conditions surrounding the original imbalance have changed.
3. Temporary reaction followed by a breakout
Price could initially react around the zone and later move through it. This highlights why the presence of a supply zone alone does not establish a directional outcome.
Confirmation Matters
The important observation is not simply whether price reaches the zone, but how price behaves around it .
Price action confirmation, market structure, displacement, and subsequent candle behavior can provide additional context when evaluating whether the original imbalance is still relevant.
Zone Invalidation
A supply zone is not permanent. Continued bullish price action through the area can weaken or invalidate the original supply thesis.
This is an important part of demand-supply analysis: zones should be treated as areas for observation rather than guaranteed reversal points.
Risk Management — Educational Context
From a general educational perspective, risk management involves understanding that technical analysis can be wrong and that individual setups can produce unexpected outcomes.
Concepts such as predefined invalidation conditions, position sizing, and limiting exposure are commonly discussed as ways of managing uncertainty. These concepts should be evaluated according to an individual's own circumstances rather than treated as universal recommendations.
Key Observation
The XAUUSD 60M chart currently provides an interesting example of how a fresh Supply Zone formed through a Drop-Base-Drop structure can be studied in the context of price revisiting a previous imbalance.
The eventual reaction remains conditional on future price action. Both continuation through the zone and rejection from the area are technically possible scenarios.
Educational Disclaimer
This publication is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It reflects a technical analysis of market structure and should not be interpreted as investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Always perform your own analysis and manage risk according to your individual circumstances. Short 
Bearish reversal setup?AUD/JPY is rising toward the pivot, which is a pullback resistance, and could reverse toward the 1st support, which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 112.80
1st Support: 111.83
1st Resistance: 113.93
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party. DAX40 | LONG IDEAGreetings traders,
DAX40 showed exactly what I expected and caught a long trade successfully reaching our target.
We are now facing two possible scenarios.
A recent critical volume area has appeared according to my strategy, and I will be looking for a Long position within this area. More precisely, around 26,244 , where the Internal (retracement) lies within my Volume Area (grey rectangle) .
Looking at the final hours of Friday's session before the close, price came very close to touching our Volume Area and bounced significantly.
This leaves us with two possibilities: either price continues higher and forms a new Higher High , or we wait for a retest of the Volume Area , ideally with price also touching the Internal level.
The second scenario is the setup I will be patiently waiting for.
Macroeconomic relief came via stronger-than-expected German industrial production and export data, providing concrete evidence of stabilizing growth inside Europe’s largest economy. As a result, I am expecting DAX40 to keep climbing this week, although we broke past 26,000 for the first time, which makes me a bit skeptical, but I am sticking to my rules as always.
As always remember to trade cautiously. Trading requires proper risk management; losses are part of the game.🙂
Long
XAUUSD: The Uptrend Is Strong, but Something Is ChangingLooking at the H1 chart, the first thing I see is not that “gold is about to fall,” but that a very strong uptrend is starting to lose some of its ease and momentum. In just a few sessions, XAUUSD rallied from around 4,080 into the 4,430–4,435 area before being sold off fairly quickly back toward 4,360. That reaction matters because price is now returning directly to the lower boundary of the rising wedge structure.
For newer traders, a rising wedge can be understood quite simply: price is still making higher highs and higher lows, but the swings are becoming tighter. This usually means buyers are still controlling the broader move, while momentum is no longer as strong as it was earlier in the rally. It does not automatically mean price must fall; the pattern only becomes more meaningful if support breaks and the market fails to reclaim the lost area.
The fundamental backdrop also helps explain why gold has rallied strongly but may struggle to move higher in a straight line. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its late-July meeting, but the decision passed by a 9–3 vote, with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike. That suggests the Fed has not completely ruled out further tightening if inflation picks up again.
On the other hand, the U.S. labor market has recently shown a much weaker signal: July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%. That softness has reduced expectations for an immediate Fed rate hike in September, which has helped support gold because non-yielding assets tend to benefit when the interest-rate outlook becomes less restrictive.
But the story does not end there. July CPI will be released on August 12 and PPI on August 13, making this a particularly sensitive period for gold. If inflation continues to cool, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields could come under pressure, creating room for gold to recover. A hotter-than-expected reading, however, could bring the rate-hike discussion back into focus and deepen the current correction. At the same time, ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions continue to provide an underlying layer of safe-haven demand for precious metals.
The area I am watching most closely is 4,350–4,360. Rather than rushing to sell simply because price has dropped sharply, I would prefer to see a clear H1 close below this zone and, more importantly, a rebound that fails to reclaim the broken support. If both conditions appear together, the move would begin to shift from a normal “pullback within an uptrend” into a more structured correction, making the 4,250 area a more reasonable downside objective. On the other hand, if buyers defend 4,350, push price back above 4,400, and continue applying pressure toward 4,435, the bearish case would lose much of its advantage.
This is also the key difference between predicting and trading with confirmation: traders do not need to guess that 4,435 is the top. The real task is to watch whether the market actually loses the structure that carried price there in the first place.
Wishing you successful trading, and always let the market confirm the setup before entering. Short 
BTC/USD High-Probability Setup Bearish FVG Rejection to Major DZ📌 Market Analysis & Confluence
1️⃣ Market Structure Shift (MSS): Price recently swept Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) near the $65,400 region and broke down lower, executing a clear Market Structure Shift (MSS) to the downside.
2️⃣ Fair Value Gap (FVG) Tap: BTC has retraced right back up into the bearish 30-minute Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $64,400 – $64,600, aligning right below the 100 EMA. This supply zone is holding as dynamic resistance for a continuation dump.
3️⃣ Higher Timeframe Demand Target: Below current price action lies a strong HTF Demand Zone resting between $62,400 – $62,700. This area is expected to offer prime long confluence after liquidity is fully cleared.
📉 Trade Plan 1: Short Position (Current Setup)
🎯 Entry Zone: $64,300 – $64,550 (Inside Bearish FVG)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): $64,850 (Above FVG & local highs)
🎯 Take Profit 1 (TP1): $63,600
🎯 Take Profit 2 (TP2): $62,700 (Upper Demand Zone)
🎯 Take Profit 3 (TP3): $62,400 (Demand Zone Sweep)
📈 Trade Plan 2: Long Reversal (Potential Bounce Setup)
🎯 Entry Zone: $62,400 – $62,700 (HTF Demand Zone)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): $62,100
🎯 Take Profit 1 (TP1): $63,800
🎯 Take Profit 2 (TP2): $64,500
🎯 Take Profit 3 (TP3): $65,400+
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is NOT financial advice. Always manage your risk properly and trade at your own responsibility.
#Bitcoin #BTCUSD #PulseWire #SmartMoneyConcepts #SMC #CryptoTrading #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexTrading #CryptoSignals Long 
Long 
