BTCUSD — Liquidity Sweep + Bearish Market Structure ShiftBitcoin is showing a potential short-term bearish scenario after sweeping the previous buy-side liquidity near 65,200–65,300 and subsequently breaking below the prior market structure. 📉
🔍 Key Technical Observations
💧 Liquidity Sweep:
Price pushed above the previous highs and took buy-side liquidity before reversing sharply.
📉 Market Structure Shift:
The strong sell-off broke the marked structure around 64,400, indicating a shift in short-term momentum.
🔄 1H FVG:
Price is currently retracing toward the 1H Fair Value Gap around 64,200–64,400, which could act as a potential reaction area.
🧱 Breaker Block:
The 63,800 area is another important structural level. A rejection here could support continuation toward the lower imbalance.
🎯 Downside Areas of Interest:
63,800 → Breaker Block
62,800–63,050 → 1H FVG
62,500–62,700 → 1H Order Block
⚠️ Invalidation:
A sustained reclaim above the 1H FVG / 64,400 area would weaken the current bearish scenario and could indicate that buyers are regaining control.
🔥 Title
BTCUSD: Buy-Side Liquidity Sweep → Bearish MSS | 1H FVG in Focus 📉
📚 Disclaimer: This is a technical market-structure analysis based on liquidity, BOS/MSS, FVGs and breaker-block concepts. It is not financial advice or a guaranteed outcome. Always manage risk and reassess the setup as price develops.
Tags:
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #SmartMoneyConcepts #LiquiditySweep #MarketStructure #FVG #BreakerBlock #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis 
Short
XAUUSD: Bulls Hold 4,400, 4,500 Comes Into Focus XAUUSD: Bulls Hold 4,400, 4,500 Comes Into Focus
Market Context
Gold is trading around 4,399 as buyers continue to defend the short-term bullish structure. Price is now testing the 4,400 area again while the market waits for key US inflation data.
The US Dollar remains stuck in a narrow range as traders balance US-Iran uncertainty, elevated oil prices, and fading expectations for a September Fed rate hike. This mixed macro backdrop keeps gold supported, but also makes the next breakout highly dependent on confirmation.
The daily structure still points toward a possible test of the 200-day SMA near 4,500, with RSI supporting the bullish recovery. However, price is already close to short-term resistance, so execution matters.
Key point: gold remains bullish above 4,360 - 4,375, but buyers need to break 4,425 - 4,435 to unlock the next upside leg.
Technical Structure
Gold is moving inside a clean upward trend after a strong bullish expansion from the lower base. The chart shows higher highs, higher lows, BOS signals, and price still respecting the upper trendline structure.
The 4,400 level is now the psychological decision area. Staying above this level keeps bullish pressure active, but the real breakout zone is 4,425 - 4,435.
If buyers break through 4,425 - 4,435 with strength, gold may continue toward the next resistance at 4,450 - 4,470. Above that, the bigger market focus shifts toward 4,500.
The nearest support is 4,360 - 4,375. This is the Immediate Buy Reaction zone. If price pulls back and holds there, buyers may attempt another push higher.
Below that, 4,315 - 4,335 is the Main Reload Zone. Losing 4,360 would not fully break the trend, but it would increase the chance of a deeper pullback into this reload area.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,399
Nearest Peak / Breakout Zone: 4,425 - 4,435
Target Resistance: 4,450 - 4,470
Psychological Target: 4,500
Immediate Buy Reaction: 4,360 - 4,375
Main Reload Zone: 4,315 - 4,335
Structure Base Demand: 4,225 - 4,250
Bullish Continuation Trigger: Above 4,435
Correction Risk: Below 4,360
Trading Plan
Buy Pullback
Entry: 4,360 - 4,375
SL: Below 4,335
TP: 4,400 / 4,425 / 4,450
Condition: Price must pull back into the Immediate Buy Reaction zone and show clear bullish rejection. Buyers need to defend 4,360 to keep the short-term trend healthy.
Buy Breakout Continuation
Entry: Above 4,435 after breakout + retest
SL: Below 4,400
TP: 4,450 / 4,470 / 4,500
Condition: Price must break 4,425 - 4,435 with strength, retest successfully, and hold above the breakout zone. Avoid chasing the first candle into resistance without confirmation.
Deep Reload Buy
Entry: 4,315 - 4,335
SL: Below 4,250
TP: 4,360 / 4,400 / 4,435
Condition: If price loses 4,360 and corrects deeper, this becomes the cleaner re-entry zone. Look for strong bullish reaction before considering continuation.
Sell Reaction
Entry: 4,450 - 4,470
SL: Above 4,500
TP: 4,435 / 4,400 / 4,375
Condition: Price reaches target resistance and shows bearish rejection. This is only a reaction sell, not the main bias, unless gold later breaks below 4,360.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 4,360 after breakdown + retest
SL: Above 4,400
TP: 4,335 / 4,315 / 4,250
Condition: Price loses the Immediate Buy Reaction zone and fails to reclaim it. This would confirm a short-term correction toward the Main Reload Zone.
Overall Bias
Gold remains bullish while price holds above 4,360 - 4,375. The structure is still strong, but price is now close to the next breakout zone, so chasing the high is not ideal.
If buyers break 4,425 - 4,435, the next upside path opens toward 4,450 - 4,470 and possibly 4,500.
If 4,360 fails, gold may need a deeper reload toward 4,315 - 4,335 before the next bullish attempt.
Best approach: follow the trend, but wait for confirmation. Either buy a clean pullback into support or wait for a confirmed breakout above 4,435.
Will buyers break 4,435 and drive gold toward 4,500, or will CPI trigger one deeper pullback first?
Long
XAUUSD — 4H BULLISH BREAKOUTGold is showing strong bullish momentum on the 4H timeframe, with price breaking above the 4,350 resistance zone and continuing to push higher.
📈 Market Structure
The chart shows a strong recovery from the 4,020–4,060 area, followed by an aggressive bullish expansion.
Price has now:
✅ Broken above 4,281
✅ Reclaimed 4,350
✅ Established bullish momentum above the previous resistance
✅ Continued forming higher highs and higher lows
🎯 Upside Target
The major resistance/target I'm watching is:
TP: 4,589
This is the previous major high and represents the next significant area where sellers could appear.
🔑 Key Levels
4,350 → Breakout/support zone
4,281 → Secondary support
4,589 → Major resistance / upside target
As long as price holds above the 4,350 area, the bullish structure remains attractive.
⚠️ What Could Change the Bias?
If price falls back below 4,350 and fails to reclaim it, the breakout could become a false breakout. A deeper pullback toward 4,281 could then become possible.
Current Bias: 🟢 BULLISH
The 4H structure is favoring continuation, but I would prefer buying pullbacks/retests rather than chasing an extended candle.
Gold remains strong. The breakout is the key. 🚀
#XAUUSD #Gold #GoldTrading #Forex #PulseWire #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure #ForexTrading #GoldAnalysis #SwingTrading Long 
Gold at 4,400: Breakout or Liquidity Trap?
Gold is trading around 4,401 after another strong bullish expansion, but the latest price action is now pressing directly into the upper boundary of the ascending structure.
The bigger trend remains bullish. However, the short-term location is no longer attractive for chasing longs.
With US July CPI due today, the next move could become highly asymmetric. Consensus is around 3.4% YoY headline and 2.5% core, making the inflation print a major catalyst for USD, yields and Gold.
🔹 H1 Structure
Gold remains inside a broader ascending channel.
The latest rally pushed price toward:
4,435–4,440 → Major Resistance / Supply
This zone is important because it sits near the recent swing high and upper channel resistance.
A rejection here would favor a corrective move before the next attempt higher.
🔹 Key Support
4,350–4,360 — Internal Demand
This is the first zone I want to see buyers defend.
If price sweeps this area and quickly reclaims it, the bullish structure remains intact.
Below that:
4,315–4,325 — Major Demand
This becomes the deeper retracement zone and aligns with the lower portion of the current bullish structure.
🔹 Two Scenarios
🟥 Bearish scenario
If Gold fails around 4,435–4,440 and loses 4,350–4,360:
→ 4,315–4,325 becomes the next draw
→ deeper correction becomes more likely
→ bearish continuation strengthens below the ascending support structure
🟩 Bullish scenario
If CPI triggers a strong bullish reaction and Gold closes decisively above 4,440:
→ supply is invalidated
→ breakout confirmation becomes stronger
→ 4,460+ becomes the next expansion area
🎯 Trading Framework
I would not chase Gold at 4,400+.
The better question is:
Will price sweep 4,350–4,360 first before attempting another expansion?
For me, the key level is simple:
Above 4,440 → bullish expansion
Below 4,350 → deeper retracement
CPI may decide which side gets liquidity first.
Would you buy the breakout above 4,440 — or wait for the liquidity pullback? Short 
XAUUSD H1: 4,370 Holds — Is 4,435 Next?Gold is trading around 4,392, and the H1 chart is approaching an important decision point.
The sharp rejection from 4,435 created a strong pullback, but sellers have not yet managed to break the underlying bullish structure. Price found support around 4,365–4,370 and has now recovered back into the 4,380–4,405 iFVG.
For me, this is less about predicting the next candle and more about watching how price reacts around these two boundaries.
4,370 is the defense.
4,405 is the trigger.
If buyers can maintain control above 4,370 and reclaim 4,405, I expect Gold to make another attempt at the 4,435 weak high.
The Setup
My preferred long area is:
Entry: 4,380–4,390
I don't want to chase Gold around 4,392 while price is sitting in the middle of the iFVG.
Instead, I want a pullback toward 4,380–4,390 and a clear bullish reaction.
Stop Loss: 4,360
This level is important because a decisive H1 move below it would tell me that the recent breakout area is no longer being defended.
For the upside:
TP1: 4,410
TP2: 4,435
TP3: 4,460
The first target is the nearby resistance.
The second target is the previous weak high.
If 4,435 is finally broken with strong H1 momentum, 4,460 becomes the next expansion target.
What Could Happen Next?
There are three important price reactions to watch.
1. Gold Pulls Back Into 4,380–4,390
This is the setup I prefer.
If price retraces into the zone, holds it, and buyers step back in, I would look for continuation toward 4,410 and then 4,435.
The key is that the pullback must remain controlled.
A healthy retracement followed by bullish rejection would keep the H1 structure intact.
2. Gold Breaks 4,405 Without Pulling Back
If an H1 candle closes firmly above 4,405, I would not immediately chase the breakout.
Instead, I would watch for a retest of 4,398–4,405.
If that area becomes support, the breakout setup becomes valid.
The targets remain:
4,435 → 4,460
This gives buyers a second opportunity even if the preferred 4,380–4,390 entry never appears.
3. Gold Loses 4,365
This is where my bullish idea is invalidated.
If H1 closes decisively below 4,365, I would cancel the long setup.
I would not immediately flip short simply because support failed.
The better decision would be to step aside and wait for a new market structure to develop.
Why 4,435 Matters
The 4,435 area is not just another target.
It is the previous weak high where sellers already appeared aggressively.
If Gold reaches this level again, I expect a reaction.
A rejection there could create another correction.
But if buyers break and hold above 4,435, the market would be showing that the previous supply has been absorbed.
That is where 4,460 becomes relevant.
My Current View
The H1 trend remains bullish as long as 4,365–4,370 continues to hold.
I am therefore looking for:
4,380–4,390 → bullish reaction → 4,405 reclaim → 4,410 → 4,435
And if the weak high finally breaks:
4,435 → 4,460
The opposite is equally clear:
H1 close below 4,365 = bullish setup cancelled.
No need to predict every move.
Let price reach the important levels and show which side is actually in control.
4,370 held once.
Now the question is whether buyers can take back 4,405.
Not financial advice. Always manage risk and position size appropriately.
Would you buy the 4,380–4,390 pullback, or wait for Gold to reclaim 4,405 first? Long 
Short 
CPI SCALPING: GOLD BULLISH — 4430 IS THE KEYGold remains in a strong bullish structure, continuously creating higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently trading near 4418, approaching the 4425–4430 resistance zone while the market waits for today's US CPI.
With CPI ahead, the priority is not to chase the current bullish move. Emma's approach is to wait for price to react at the key zones, then follow the confirmed short-term structure.
🟢 BUY SCENARIO – FOLLOW THE TREND
The main bias remains bullish. If gold pulls back and holds support with bullish confirmation, prioritize BUY.
BUY Zone 1: 4355–4360
→ First pullback zone after the recent breakout.
BUY Zone 2: 4315–4320
→ Deeper support if volatility increases.
BUY Zone 3: 4260–4265
→ Major demand zone and deeper trend continuation area.
Upside targets:
→ 4429
→ 4470–4475
🔴 CCS SELL – KEY RESISTANCE
Gold is approaching 4425–4430, where sellers may attempt to create a short-term reaction.
If price reaches this zone and gives a clear rejection + bearish confirmation, a CCS scalp can be considered.
CCS SELL: 4425–4430
The objective here is only to capture the short-term correction. This is counter-trend, so do not hold the position aggressively if buyers break and sustain above the zone.
If 4430 breaks decisively, the next upside area is 4470–4475.
📰 CPI TODAY
CPI is the main volatility catalyst for today's US session.
Hotter CPI → USD strength → potential pressure on Gold.
Softer CPI → USD weakness → potential continuation toward 4429 → 4470.
Before the release, avoid entering simply because price is moving fast. Let CPI create the volatility, then trade the structure.
📌 KEY LEVELS
4470–4475 → Major upside target
4425–4430 → Key resistance / CCS Sell
4355–4360 → First Buy zone
4315–4320 → Secondary support
4260–4265 → Major demand
🎯 EMMA'S BIAS
BULLISH — BUY THE PULLBACK
The dominant trend remains bullish. The preferred setup is BUY after a controlled retracement into support. CCS SELL is only considered when price reaches the major resistance and gives confirmation.
No FOMO. No chasing. Wait for the level, wait for confirmation, execute. Long 
Gold Has Potential for Further GainsGold prices (XAU/USD) OANDA:XAUUSD regained fresh buying momentum during Wednesday's Asian trading session, reclaiming the ground above US$4,400 and edging closer to the two-month high (US$4,435) touched yesterday.
The bullion's rally was underpinned by a sell-off in the US Dollar (USD) following the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data confirming cooling inflation, alongside elevated geopolitical risk premiums spanning from the Middle East to the Korean Peninsula.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ US Macro Landscape: Cooling CPI Data Hits USD; Setting the Stage for the Fed Meeting
The released US consumer inflation report served as a major volatility trigger for foreign exchange and bond markets:
- 🔸Cooling US CPI Inflation: The July US CPI report showed inflation slowing in line with or below market expectations. This confirms that consumer price pressures are beginning to cool following the labor market slowdown (after the -23K NFP contraction), dampening speculation that the Federal Reserve will act aggressively in the near term.
- 🔸US Dollar & Bond Yield Sell-off: The easing CPI pace triggered a drop in short-term US government bond yields and weighed on the US Dollar Index (DXY). These conditions provided fuel for gold, a non-yielding asset.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Geopolitical Flare-ups: Commerzbank Analysis on Hormuz & North Korean Missile Launches
Military risk landscapes across the globe are heating up, locking in "war risk premiums" for safe-haven assets:
- 🔸Commerzbank Analysis on Reciprocal Demands: Financial institution Commerzbank highlighted that hopes for a US-Iran peace deal are fading as diplomatic stances harden. An advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, asserted that the Strait of Hormuz would not be opened unless Tehran's conditions regarding reparations are met.
- 🔸North Korean Missile Launch & Taiwan Tensions: Geopolitical risks have heightened following North Korea's ballistic missile launch early this morning, ahead of joint US-South Korea military exercises. Simultaneously, Taiwan has condemned China's planned naval drills off the island's east coast, reinforcing capital flows into safe-haven assets.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday H4)
Technically, on the 4-hour (H4) chart, XAU/USD has confirmed a bullish continuation pattern above the psychological base of US$4,400:
- 🔸Bullish Trend Dominance: Gold's ability to hold firm above US$4,400 confirms that buyers (bulls) are in full control. The path of least resistance remains to the upside.
- 🔸Acceleration Target: A clean break above the daily highs of US$4,435–US$4,440 would clear the technical hurdles, paving the way toward the key psychological target of US$4,500. Long 
GBPUSD Upside ContinuationFirst, after the recent swings, GBPUSD started to settle into a tighter range. Price was moving back and forth around the same area, with no clean continuation in either direction.
Now look at the zone marked on the chart. It had acted as resistance several times before, repeatedly stopping buyers from pushing higher. That history makes the latest reaction much more important.
This time, however, price approached the level with stronger bullish pressure. Buyers kept pressing into resistance until the market finally broke through. More importantly, price has now come back to test the same area and is still holding above it.
That changes the picture. Former resistance is beginning to behave like new support, and as long as buyers continue to defend this zone, I would favor another move higher toward 1.35580.
The key now is simple: the breakout has happened, the retest is holding, and buyers still have the stronger hand. 
Long
Gold Above 4400: The Correction May Be StartingIn yesterday’s analysis, I wrote that although Gold had broken several important resistance levels and gained almost 10% last week, traders should start becoming cautious.
After such an aggressive move, a correction was becoming increasingly likely, and I specifically pointed to prices above 4400 as an area worth watching.
Well, Gold went there.
During yesterday’s session, the price initially dropped toward the 4320 zone. Buyers stepped in, 4320 confirmed itself as strong support, and Gold resumed its move higher.
Overnight, the rally extended above 4400, reaching a high around 4435.
But what happened next is much more interesting from a Price Action perspective.
Instead of consolidating above 4400 and preparing another leg higher, Gold was quickly rejected from 4435 and reversed. At the time of writing, the price is trading around 4370, which is an important confluence area between the rising trendline and horizontal support.
So, 4370 becomes important.
A clean break below this area would weaken the current bullish structure and add weight to the idea that the correction I've been expecting may finally be starting.
There Is Another Warning Sign
Besides the simple fact that not even trees don't grow to the sky , traders should also pay attention to the pattern that has gradually been developing since August 6, when Gold printed its first important high around 4300.
The price action since then is beginning to resemble a rising wedge.
And the important thing about a rising wedge is not simply that it exists. Patterns don't trade themselves.
What matters is the combination:
an almost 10% rally + a failed attempt to hold above 4400 + rejection from 4435.
Taken together, these elements make the downside scenario increasingly interesting.
My Bias
At this moment, my bias has turned bearish, and I see potential for Gold to correct toward the 4250 zone.
That doesn't mean I want to chase the price lower from wherever it happens to be trading.
Quite the opposite.
From a risk/reward perspective, I still believe that spikes above 4400 can offer attractive prices for selling, especially if another attempt higher is followed by rejection.
The idea is simple:
I don't want to sell Gold because it has risen too much.
I want to sell it if the market starts showing that it can no longer sustain those higher prices.
And after the rejection from 4435, we may be seeing the first serious signs of exactly that. Short 
XAUUSD: Uptrend Still IntactXAUUSD maintains a bullish structure on the H1 timeframe, characterized by a series of higher lows and continued support from an ascending trendline. The most recent pullback failed to break the support zone around 4,360, indicating persistent buying pressure.
Notably, the 4,360 level represents a confluence of the trendline and short-term support. If the price holds this area, I expect XAUUSD to regain momentum and move up to test the 4,430–4,440 range.
From a fundamental perspective, safe-haven demand and expectations of a less hawkish Fed continue to underpin gold prices. However, upcoming US inflation data could trigger significant volatility.
Main Trend: Bullish | Support: 4,360 | Target: 4,430–4,440 Long 
ETH/USDT: THE $1,990 BREAKOUT EXPANSION!🚀
Holding firm above lower support near 1,890.68! Are you panic-selling this local dip, or getting ready to ride the multi-wave breakout rally to macro resistance? 🤔
Ethereum is building strong momentum within an ascending structure on this 4-hour Binance chart. ETH is trading around 1,890.68, bouncing cleanly off lower trendline support and preparing for a higher-timeframe expansion past the descending Resistance line. 📈💥
Look closely at the black blueprint trajectory mapping out the coming sessions. The algorithm projects a textbook multi-wave expansion sequence:
• An initial impulse surge driving price straight up to test $1,950 near local pattern resistance. ⚡
• A healthy higher-low pullback retesting $1,920 to solidify structural support. 🌊
• Final powerful acceleration wave driving straight up to target the overhead ascending boundary near $1,990. 🎯🏹
Maintaining technical patience and aligning with the primary trendline flow is your ultimate superpower in this setup. Trying to short directly into a confirmed ascending support floor while holding above key demand is a fast track to getting caught in an aggressive expansion squeeze. Smart money is quietly accumulating long position blocks right off this trendline base. 🧘♂️⚡
🛠 Trade Parameters:
🛒 Long Zone: 1,875 - 1,895 🛍️
🛑 Stop-Loss: 4h close below 1,850 ❌
💰 Take-Profit: 1,990 🎯
The retail bears trying to short this support floor are about to get caught offside as institutional buy volume takes total control. Stay focused, strictly manage your risk, and let the algorithm carry the trade up to our target.
Maintain your composure through the waves, and we will see you up at the $1,990 resistance target ceiling! 🚀💎 
Long
XAUUSD – Below H4, Eyeing 4494XAUUSD has already tested the H4 Turn around 4431 and has started to pull back slightly, but structurally this is not yet a bearish reversal. It looks more like a sideways accumulation phase within the 4317–4430 range before the market chooses its next expansion. Buy-side pressure remains dominant , so pullbacks toward 4411, 4361 , or even deeper to 4326 should be viewed as potential reaction zones rather than immediate signs of a broken trend. Under the current structure, if support holds, the next upside target remains 4494 , potentially later today or tomorrow.
From a price action / SMC perspective , the market is moving in a typical mitigation pattern after testing a premium zone: price tags the upper area, faces short-term rejection, then sweeps lower turn levels to absorb liquidity before attempting the next leg higher. The key here is not to assume price will rally in a straight line, but to watch whether buyers continue to defend structure around 4411 / 4361 / 4326 . If reactions are clean at those levels, the move toward 4494 becomes much more convincing.
On the macro side , gold is still supported by a constructive backdrop: the latest gold price is around 4400.80 USD/oz , up 0.70% on the day , 9.97% on the month , and 31.11% year-on-year . Support continues to come from investment demand, purchases by China’s central bank, and defensive sentiment linked to uncertainty around the Hormuz/Iran situation. However, there is still a counterweight from upcoming U.S. inflation data, as the Fed could maintain a hawkish tone if CPI or PPI comes in hot.
On the USD side, the DXY is around 99.88, slightly higher on the day but still down 1.34% over the month, which means the dollar is not yet strong enough to invalidate gold’s short-term bullish structure. The biggest catalysts this week remain CPI on Aug 12, PPI + Jobless Claims on Aug 13 , and Retail Sales on Aug 14 . If the data comes in softer than expected, gold will have a stronger case for continuation; if CPI/PPI surprises to the upside, price could become much more volatile inside the current consolidation zone.
The more strategic approach here is not to chase price in the middle of the range, but to use small-sized entries at the turn zones , then drop to M1/M5 for confirmation of entry, take-profit, and stop-loss placement. In a market where the primary trend remains bullish but price is consolidating just below an H4 resistance zone, the edge belongs to traders who wait for the right reaction area instead of buying emotionally in the middle of noise.
Core idea: XAUUSD is in a strategic re-accumulation phase below the H4 Turn at 4431 ; if the 4411 / 4361 / 4326 zones continue to hold structure, the market still has a high probability of extending toward 4494 in the short term. 
Long
XAUUSD: Bullish Structure Favors a Move Toward $4,430Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current XAUUSD setup.
Market Analysis
XAUUSD previously traded inside a broad descending channel before forming a strong base near the lower boundary. After several breakout attempts, price successfully broke above the channel resistance and reclaimed the 4,290 Support Zone, confirming a bullish shift in market structure.
Currently, XAUUSD is trading above the 4,290 Support Zone while remaining below the 4,430 Resistance Zone. The recent breakout from the consolidation range and the ascending trendline suggests that buyers remain in control despite the short-term pullback.
My Scenario & Strategy
As long as XAUUSD holds above the 4,290 Support Zone and respects the rising trendline, the bullish scenario remains valid. A successful retest of support could trigger another upward move toward the 4,430 Resistance Zone (TP1).
However, a breakdown below the 4,290 Support Zone would weaken the bullish outlook and increase the risk of a deeper correction.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk. Long 
Long
3 Key Bitcoin Signals That Could Indicate a Cycle BottomHello everyone,
Before you review the analysis, please pay close attention to the educational section first.
1. What Is an Inverted Hammer?
An inverted hammer is a candlestick that forms at the end of a downtrend and can signal a potential trend reversal.
2. What Is Miner Capitulation?
Miner capitulation refers to a situation where major Bitcoin miners are forced to surrender or sell their Bitcoin holdings, often due to financial pressure.
3. What Is Strategy Capitulation?
Strategy capitulation refers to Bitcoin sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) near a cycle bottom, potentially due to financial pressure, the need to cover expenses, prevent bankruptcy, or meet dividend obligations.
---
First, Let’s Start With the Inverted Hammer
At the bottoms of the three Bitcoin cycles in 2019, 2022, and 2026, an inverted hammer pattern appeared on the monthly timeframe.
This pattern can signal a potential trend reversal, especially if we are approaching the end of a four-year cycle and a bear market, and particularly when it is combined with miner capitulation.
Now, if next month begins with a bullish candle, it could be a positive sign for the beginning of the next bullish cycle.
Second: Miner Capitulation and Strategy Capitulation
Let’s look at some examples.
December 2018
Miner Capitulation | Severe selling pressure from miners and a sharp decline in hashrate
December 2022
Miners were selling BTC to survive; approximately 40,300 out of 40,700 BTC produced by the 10 largest miners had been sold by the end of November.
We also witnessed miner selling in 2026.
Now, let’s take a look at Strategy.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold Bitcoin once in December 2022.
In August 2026, both Strategy and MARA Digital began selling some of their Bitcoin holdings.
So, let’s answer the important question:
Should We Be Afraid and Run?
We need to look at why they are selling:
🔴 Selling to survive, repay debt, cover expenses, or avoid bankruptcy → this can be a sign of capitulation.
🟠 Selling due to treasury management or profit-taking → this does not necessarily indicate a cycle bottom.
🟢 A large company selling without financial pressure → by itself, this is not a reliable signal that the bear market is ending.
When Strategy and miners are selling Bitcoin because they need to cover expenses or avoid bankruptcy, it can often be a clear sign that we are approaching a Bitcoin cycle bottom.
Putting Everything Together
So, friends, when we put all these factors together — miner capitulation, Strategy capitulation, the monthly inverted hammer, the proximity to day 373 after the market top, and the beginning of the next cycle — they collectively give us an important warning:
Either we are already at the Bitcoin cycle bottom, or we are very close to it.
Don't forget that this is not financial advice.
I am simply presenting a broader idea for you to consider, based on the chart, on-chain data, and historical cycles.
Best regards,
Amir Ghasemi
Gold Channel RejectionWill $4,480 Premium Resistance Trigger a Flush to $4,390 FVG?
Market Overview
• Macro Driver: The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds steady near 99.70 as institutional market participants adopt a watchful stance ahead of upcoming US inflation benchmarks. This localized stabilization caps Gold's immediate upside momentum, prompting pre-news profit taking.
• Market Condition: Gold remains locked within a well-defined Ascending Channel structure on lower timeframes. However, as price approaches the upper boundary of the channel, institutional order flow indicates potential exhaustion and a engineered liquidity sweep.
Technical Context
• Structure: Ascending Channel & Intraday Liquidity Engineering (M30). Gold has executed a multi-wave rally from the Intermediate Supply Block (4,225 - 4,235), validating consecutive BOS shifts. Price is now testing the upper trendline channel boundary.
• Liquidity & Imbalance: The sharp ascent left two significant Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) unmitigated between 4,365 and 4,395. Algorithms are expected to sweep buy-side liquidity above local highs before triggering an aggressive breakdown through the lower trendline support to fill these discount voids.
Key Zones
• Upper Institutional Supply / Rejection Box: Premium Resistance Zone (4,475.000 - 4,485.000)
• Current Market Price (CMP): ~4,432.970
• Intermediate Support Level: Trendline & Intraday Resistance (4,310.000 - 4,320.000)
• Primary Discount Retest Array: Upper FVG Zone (4,385.000 - 4,395.000)
• Lower Structural FVG Floor: Core FVG Demand (4,365.000 - 4,375.000)
• Lower Structural Base: Intermediate Supply Block (4,225.000 - 4,235.000)
Trading Plan (IF–THEN)
• IF price pushes into the upper supply box (4,475 - 4,485) AND validates LTF (M3/M5) bearish displacement/CHoCH -> THEN look for Short executions, targeting the trendline breakdown toward 4,410 and the primary FVG demand pool at 4,385 - 4,395.
• IF price breaks decisively above 4,485 with a strong M30 candle close -> THEN the corrective pullback narrative is invalidated, opening the door for an immediate macro expansion.
MMFLOW View
• Bias: Corrective Bearish Rejection from Channel Resistance. Do not chase breakouts at the upper edge of an extended ascending channel. Our mathematical edge lies in executing premium shorts upon confirmed rejection at $4,480 down to the $4,390 FVG floor.
Are you shorting the upper channel rejection at $4,480 or waiting to buy the $4,390 FVG retest? Short 
