Long
Short
XAUUSD: Bullish channel holds; buyers remain in controlXAUUSD maintains a clear bullish structure on the H1 timeframe, with price consistently forming higher lows and trading steadily within an ascending channel. Following a correction from the 4,430 level, buying pressure has re-emerged near the dynamic support zone, indicating that the primary trend remains intact.
Technically, the 4,370–4,380 range is a key area of interest, as it represents a confluence of the ascending channel's lower boundary, Ichimoku levels, and the nearest Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). If price holds this zone, I anticipate XAUUSD could reclaim the 4,430–4,440 level before extending gains toward the 4,500–4,502 area.
Recent news developments also support the bullish case for gold. However, the 4,430–4,440 zone remains a resistance level that must be overcome; therefore, a pullback prior to further upward movement would represent a healthier price action.
The bullish scenario would be invalidated if XAUUSD closes decisively below 4,370, as this would signal that the short-term support structure and the lower boundary of the ascending channel are no longer holding. Long 
Bearish drop off?Dow Jones (US30) is reacting off the pivot and could reverse toward the 1st support, which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 53,782.65
1st Support: 53,326.77
1st Resistance: 54,217.43
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Short
Potential bullish rise?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise towards the pullback resistance that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 81.90
1st Support: 79.37
1st Resistance: 88.90
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Long
EURUSD – Rising Support Breakdown & Bearish Continuation Setup📊 EURUSD – Rising Support Breakdown & Bearish Continuation Setup
🔍 Market Overview
EURUSD is beginning to lose its recent bullish structure on the 1H timeframe. After spending several sessions climbing along a rising support line, price failed to extend higher and started forming lower highs from the recent peak.
The latest move below the ascending trendline is the key development. This support had helped maintain the recovery, so losing it suggests that buyers are no longer controlling the structure as cleanly as before.
A short recovery toward the broken trendline is still possible, but unless price can reclaim the structure, the current setup favors further downside.
📉 Market Structure Insight
Market Bias: Bearish
Momentum: Weakening / Turning Lower
Current Phase: Support Breakdown / Potential Bearish Continuation
The shift from higher lows into lower highs, followed by the loss of rising support, suggests that EURUSD may be transitioning from an upward structure into a corrective bearish phase.
🔻 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bearish Scenario — Primary Bias
Conditions:
Price remains below the broken ascending trendline.
Any recovery into the breakdown area struggles to hold.
Sellers continue to defend the short-term descending resistance.
Bearish momentum returns after a possible retest.
Trade Plan:
Rather than chasing the first drop, I would prefer to see price retest the broken structure and show another clear rejection. If sellers remain in control after that retest, EURUSD could continue lower toward:
🎯 Target: 1.14450
❌ Bearish Invalidation Scenario
The bearish idea would begin to weaken if EURUSD moves back above the broken trendline and successfully holds inside the previous rising structure.
A strong recovery above the recent lower-high structure would suggest that the breakdown has failed and that buyers are regaining control.
📍 Key Levels to Monitor
🔴 Key Resistance: Broken rising support / short-term descending trendline
🟢 Main Downside Target: 1.14450
⚠️ Trading Perspective
The important signal here is not simply that price has moved lower. It is where the move happened.
EURUSD has broken beneath a trendline that supported several previous pullbacks. If that former support now turns into resistance, it would provide much stronger confirmation that the market is shifting in favor of sellers.
For that reason, a controlled retest would be more attractive than entering after an already extended bearish candle.
🧠 Professional Insight
This setup is supported by:
Loss of the previous rising support structure.
Lower highs developing after the recent peak.
Increasing pressure from the descending trendline.
A possible support-to-resistance transition.
Clear downside room if the breakdown is confirmed.
The cleaner approach is to let price confirm that the broken trendline can no longer be reclaimed before expecting continuation toward 1.14450.
🛡️ Risk Management
Define invalidation before entering.
Avoid chasing price after a sharp bearish candle.
Wait for confirmation around the broken structure.
Keep position size appropriate for current volatility.
Risk only what your trading plan allows.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Strong support ahead as price falls?Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling toward the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce toward the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.7021
1st Support: 0.7001
1st Resistance: 0.7069
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
GOLD 15MIN CRITICAL POINTXAUUSD 15-Minute Chart Analysis – Shavyfxhub Strategy
Current Price: ≈ 4,402
Market Structure
Gold is trading inside a rising structure on the 15-minute timeframe.
Multiple green ascending trendlines are acting as dynamic demand.
Horizontal resistance is clearly marked at 4,434 and 4,415.
Price recently made a push higher and is now retesting a confluence area.
The chart explicitly notes the trade reason: Ascending Trendline + Horizontal Support.
A BAR (Break and Retest) is marked near the current price action.
Important warning on the chart: Break and close of the current structure is a sell continuation.
Key Levels (Shavyfxhub Style)
Supply Roof / Resistance:
4,434 – 4,435 → Higher Supply Roof
4,415 → Intermediate resistance
Demand Floor / Support:
Rising green ascending trendlines (main dynamic demand)
Horizontal support around current levels (4,400 – 4,380 zone)
Current Bias
Bullish while the ascending structure holds.
Price is currently sitting at a critical confluence of the ascending trendline and horizontal support. This is a high-probability decision zone.
Scenarios
Bullish continuation:
Hold and bounce from the ascending trendline + horizontal support
Break above 4,415 then 4,434
Targets the upper red channel lines
Bearish / Sell continuation:
Clear break and close below the ascending trendline and horizontal support
Would confirm the chart’s warning and open downside targets toward 4,340 – 4,300 and lower
Summary (Shavyfxhub View)
Structure = Rising channel with key confluence support
Immediate focus = Reaction at the ascending trendline + horizontal support (around 4,400)
Critical resistance = 4,415 → 4,434
Critical support = Current ascending trendline zone
This is a clean Shavyfxhub decision point. Holding the structure keeps the bullish bias alive. A decisive break below it shifts the short-term bias to sell continuation.
Long 
Long 
GBPTHB Eyes US CPIYesterday Recap
Yesterday, GBPTHB closed at 44.78, with the pair continuing to rise and testing the 44.78–44.80 zone before facing selling pressure and pulling back. This suggests that buying momentum is beginning to weaken around the key resistance area.
Fundamental Analysis – 12 Aug 2026
GBPTHB is expected to trade within a range with a short-term bearish bias. There are no major economic data releases from the UK today, while Thai markets are closed for National Mother’s Day, which may result in thinner liquidity in the Thai baht market. Meanwhile, the market is primarily focused on U.S. CPI and the direction of the USD.
If U.S. CPI comes in higher than expected, it could support the USD and put pressure on GBPTHB. Conversely, weaker-than-expected CPI could weigh on the USD and create room for GBPTHB to recover.
Technical Analysis
The technical outlook is Sideway to Bearish after the price tested the 44.78–44.80 area and came under selling pressure. The RSI is beginning to weaken, while the MACD Histogram has turned negative, indicating that bullish momentum is starting to fade.
If the price breaks below 44.67, it could decline further toward the 44.64 area.
Bias: Sideway to Bearish
Resistance: 44.78 – 44.80
Support: 44.67 – 44.64
Target: 44.67 – 44.64 (Bearish Scenario)
Cut Loss: 44.81 (for the short position) AUDTHB Eyes Wage DataYesterday Recap
Yesterday, AUDTHB closed at 23.39, with the AUD supported by the RBA’s hawkish stance after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.35%, while leaving the possibility of further rate hikes if inflationary pressures remain elevated. This continued to provide short-term support for the AUD.
Fundamental Analysis – 12 Aug 2026
AUDTHB is expected to trade within a volatile range with a short-term bearish bias. Today, Thai markets are closed for National Mother’s Day, which may result in thinner liquidity in the Thai baht market. Meanwhile, the market is watching the Australian Wage Price Index (WPI) and the RBA Chart Pack to assess wage pressures, inflation, and the outlook for RBA monetary policy.
If WPI comes in higher than expected, it could reduce expectations for monetary policy easing and support the AUD. Conversely, weaker-than-expected WPI data could pressure the AUD and AUDTHB. Meanwhile, stronger gold prices and potential support for the Thai baht from capital flows related to the gold market could add further downward pressure on AUDTHB in the short term.
Technical Analysis
AUDTHB has a Sideway to Bearish technical outlook after being sold off from the 23.42 area. The RSI has declined toward 50, while the MACD is beginning to weaken, reflecting fading bullish momentum.
If the price fails to move back above 23.38–23.40, it could decline further toward the 23.35–23.33 zone and the FVG around 23.32. However, a move back above 23.40 would reduce the downside pressure.
Bias: Sideway to Bearish
Resistance: 23.38 – 23.42
Support: 23.35 – 23.32
Target: 23.35 – 23.32
Cut Loss: 23.40 (for the short position) XAGUSD 30M — Market Structure & Liquidity AnalysisMarket Structure 🔎
Silver is showing a bullish intraday structure, with multiple BOS confirmations followed by strong upward displacement. After reaching the 4H OB around 66.00–66.50, price has started a corrective move lower.
The current retracement brings price toward the marked 30M FVG + OB area around 63.60–64.40, which is an important zone to observe for a potential reaction.
Key Zones
🔹 30M FVG: ~64.15–64.45
This is the first area to monitor during the current pullback.
🔹 30M OB: ~63.60–64.15
A deeper reaction zone if the FVG is not sufficient to support price.
🔹 Swing Low / Liquidity: ~63.00
A key structural reference. A sweep of this area followed by bullish confirmation could be significant from a market-structure perspective.
🔹 Lower 30M FVG + OB: ~62.30–62.70
Deeper demand/imbalance area if the correction extends further.
🔹 4H OB: ~66.00–66.50
Major higher-timeframe reaction/supply area where the previous bullish expansion encountered resistance.
Possible Scenarios 📈
Bullish scenario:
Price could continue retracing into the 30M FVG/OB, potentially sweep nearby liquidity, and then form a bullish structure shift. A sustained recovery could bring price back toward the 4H OB.
Deeper correction scenario:
If the first 30M zone fails, attention can shift toward the 63.00 swing-low liquidity and subsequently the 62.30–62.70 FVG + OB.
Invalidation / bearish clue:
A decisive breakdown below the important swing structure, followed by bearish continuation, would weaken the current bullish interpretation and suggest that the correction may be developing into a larger reversal.
Educational Takeaway 🧠
The key idea here is not to chase the previous impulse, but to study how price behaves around the marked FVGs, order blocks, and liquidity levels. The reaction and subsequent market-structure shift provide more information than simply assuming that a zone will hold.
⚠️ Educational and technical-analysis study only. This is not financial advice, a trade signal, or a guarantee of future price movement. Always conduct your own analysis and manage risk independently. 
Long
EURTHB Eyes US CPIYesterday Recap
Yesterday, EURTHB closed at 38.26, recovering from lower levels and moving back above the 38.20 area. After the EUR weakened initially, buying interest returned, allowing the pair to rebound and indicating that short-term demand for the EUR remains present.
Fundamental Analysis – 12 Aug 2026
EURTHB is expected to trade within a volatile range with a bearish bias. Today, Thai markets are closed for National Mother’s Day, which may result in thinner-than-usual liquidity in the Thai baht market. Meanwhile, the market is focusing on the U.S. CPI, a key factor influencing the USD and EUR/USD direction.
In addition, the strength in gold prices reflects safe-haven demand and increased investor caution in global markets. This may encourage capital flows toward safe-haven assets and add further pressure on the EUR in the short term.
If U.S. CPI comes in higher than expected, it could support the USD and pressure EUR/USD lower. Meanwhile, continued strength in gold could signal a risk-off environment, potentially causing EURTHB to decline. Conversely, if CPI comes in below expectations, the USD could weaken and renewed buying interest in the EUR could help EURTHB recover.
Technical Analysis
EURTHB has a Sideway to Bearish technical outlook after testing the 38.27 resistance area and facing selling pressure. The latest candlestick indicates selling interest near resistance, while the RSI is around 52 and the MACD remains close to the zero line, suggesting that bullish momentum is not yet clearly established.
The price is still trading above the FVG zone around 38.18–38.20, which serves as an important support area. A break below this zone could open the way for further downside. The 38.20 level remains a key area to watch; if it holds, the pair could rebound and retest resistance.
Bias: Sideway to Bearish
Resistance: 38.27 – 38.29
Support: 38.20 – 38.22
Target: 38.18 (Bearish Scenario)
Cut Loss: 38.29 (for the short position) 50% Fib resistance signals downside?Ninja (USD/JPY) is rsing towards the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and ould reverse toward the 1st support.
Pivot: 159.58
1st Suppport: 157.91
1st Resistance: 160.72
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
USDTHB Eyes US CPIYesterday Recap
Yesterday, USDTHB closed at 33.17, recovering from around 32.98 after the USD weakened initially before buying interest returned. However, the pair failed to sustain levels above the 33.20 zone toward the end of the session and came under renewed selling pressure, suggesting that USD buying momentum remains relatively weak.
Fundamental – August 12, 2026
USDTHB is expected to trade sideways to bearish in the short term. Today is Thailand’s National Mother’s Day, resulting in the closure of the Thai stock market and financial institutions. This may lead to thinner-than-usual liquidity in the Thai baht market. Meanwhile, investors are focusing on the US CPI for July, scheduled for release at 19:30 ICT, to assess the inflation outlook and the Fed’s monetary policy direction.
In addition, stronger gold prices could provide support for the Thai baht through capital flows and transactions related to the gold market. If buying interest in gold remains strong, it could lead to USD selling and add downward pressure on USDTHB in the short term.
If US CPI comes in higher than expected, it could reduce expectations for Fed easing and support the USD, potentially limiting the downside in USDTHB. Conversely, if CPI comes in below expectations while gold prices remain strong, this could weigh on the USD and support the baht through gold-related capital flows, increasing the likelihood of further downside in USDTHB.
Technical Analysis
USDTHB remains Sideway to Bearish after declining from the 33.12–33.15 resistance zone and forming a Lower High pattern. RSI has started to weaken from elevated levels, indicating that buying momentum is losing strength. Meanwhile, the MACD Histogram has turned negative, signaling fading bullish momentum.
A break below the 33.09–33.07 support zone could trigger further downside, with the next target around 33.07 and potentially lower if selling pressure intensifies. On the upside, a move back above 33.12–33.15 would weaken the short-term bearish outlook.
Bias: Sideway to Bearish
Resistance: 33.12 – 33.15
Support: 33.09 – 33.07
Target: 33.07 (Bearish Scenario)
Cut Loss: 33.18 (Short Position) SOYBEAN 1H: Descending Wedge Breakout & Seller Trap (Long Setup)
1. Market Context
On the 1H chart, Soybean is compressing inside a descending red wedge structure right above the major bottom support floor at 1,151.6. Price recently bounced off 1,156.0 and is now pressing directly against the upper red trendline resistance around 1,170.0.
2. Trader Behavior & House Trap Analysis
Where Traders Place Orders: Seeing the downward trendline and overall bearish momentum, retail traders are opening SELL orders near 1,170.0, expecting price to drop back down to 1,151.6 or lower.
Trader Stop-Loss & Target: These short-sellers have placed their Stop-Loss orders immediately above the trendline around 1,172.0 – 1,175.0, targeting lower lows.
How the House Plays It: The House previously flushed early buyers down at 1,151.6. Now, as retail crowds into sell orders at the trendline, the House will push price up to slice through 1,170.0 ("Break Signal"). This sweeps all the sellers' stop-losses (forcing buy-stop market orders), fueling a rapid squeeze toward 1,185.7 (TP1) and 1,197.3 (TP2).
3. Trade Setup
Entry: 1,170.0 (Confirmed 1H close above the red trendline / Break Signal)
Stop Loss (SL): 1,156.0 (Placed safely below the recent bottom bounce)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1,185.7
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 1,197.3
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): Approx 2:1 (Calculated toward TP2) 
Long
US Tech100 – Bullish Continuation Setup Order Block & Liquidity.US Tech 100 is showing a bullish market structure on the 1H chart, with price respecting the 29,400–29,440 Order Block as a key demand area. The recent reaction from this zone indicates that buyers are defending the level.
Above price, a major buy-side liquidity zone is located around 29,750–29,930. A sustained move into this area could lead to a liquidity sweep and potentially a continuation toward the 29,900–29,950 region.
The lower 29,120–29,310 Fair Value Gap remains an important demand/imbalance zone. If price experiences a deeper retracement, this area could provide additional support.
Key Levels
🟢 Demand / Order Block: 29,400–29,440
🟢 Major FVG: 29,120–29,310
🔴 Resistance / Buy-Side Liquidity: 29,750–29,930
🎯 Upside objective: 29,850 → 29,930
⚠️ Invalidation: Sustained breakdown below the 29,400 Order Block
Market Bias
Bullish while price holds above the 29,400–29,440 Order Block.
A confirmed reaction from this zone could support another move toward the 29,750–29,930 liquidity area. If price breaks and holds below 29,400, the bullish scenario weakens and the lower FVG becomes the next area of interest. ES Tests 7,755 — NQ Weakens, Credit HoldsES Tests 7,755 as NQ Approaches a Major LVN — But Credit Still Refuses Risk-Off
Market Regime
Fragile Rotation / Tech-Led Risk-Off Pressure
Tuesday added meaningful technical deterioration to the U.S. equity picture.
ES lost both of its recent short-term trend structures and fell back toward the major 7,755 high-volume shelf. NQ remained below its larger broken trend and moved closer to a major low-volume boundary near 29,480–29,500.
The weakness is becoming more credible, but it still lacks confirmation from credit, financials and broader volatility.
ES Structure
ES is trading near 7,753, directly around its important 7,755 HVN and nearby trend support.
The larger 7,735–7,725 HVN/LVN boundary remains immediately below.
Higher-timeframe CVD had been trending lower for several sessions while price remained near the highs. Tuesday finally saw price begin moving in the same direction as that weaker participation, suggesting the divergence is starting to resolve.
However, ES has not yet accepted inside the larger LVN.
A reclaim and hold above 7,755 would stabilize the structure. Acceptance beneath 7,735–7,725 would materially strengthen the bearish case.
NQ
NQ remains the weaker major index.
Price is near 29,680 and remains beneath its major broken trend structures. Short- and longer-term CVD remain weak, while the next major structural decision area begins around 29,480–29,500.
Acceptance beneath that LVN boundary would increase the probability of faster downside travel.
Market Internals
Breadth began Tuesday strongly but deteriorated through the session.
ADD faded toward roughly flat, VOLD remained positive but gave back much of its early strength, and cumulative TICK weakened into the close.
RSP was more resilient than SPY and ground slightly higher despite weakness in the capitalization-weighted index. That suggests the deterioration remains concentrated disproportionately in larger leadership names rather than the entire market.
Credit / Financials
Credit continues to contradict a full risk-off interpretation.
HYG/LQD remains strong.
KRE had a constructive session and XLF finished roughly flat while its CVD strengthened significantly.
That is not the behavior normally associated with broad financial stress.
Volatility
Short-duration volatility increased, with VIX1D moving higher.
However, both VIX and VX remain beneath their larger EMA-cloud and VWAP resistance structures.
Interestingly, VX RSI and CVD are strengthening despite subdued volatility price.
That divergence deserves monitoring, but it has not yet triggered a broader volatility breakout.
Rates
Treasury yields declined across the curve Tuesday and TLT strengthened.
That should have provided a more supportive environment for growth, yet NQ and semiconductor leadership still weakened.
The failure of technology to respond positively to falling yields suggests the current weakness is increasingly technical and leadership-driven rather than purely rate-driven.
Leadership
Semiconductors remain the clearest weakness.
NVDA fell into the major LVN beginning near $217.20 before recovering modestly above it.
SMH also entered lower-volume structure, while AMD and AVGO remain below broken trends. SOX is still consolidating, but RSI continues forming progressively lower highs.
Weakness is also beginning to spread beyond semiconductors.
AMZN lost a major trend and is testing support around $271–272, while GOOGL broke beneath daily moving averages with weak CVD.
MSFT, META and ORCL remain comparatively healthier.
Funding
Funding plumbing remains calm.
SOFR is orderly near 3.62–3.63%, ON RRP usage is negligible and the TGA is stable near recent levels.
There is currently no evidence that the equity weakness reflects funding-system stress.
What Changed?
Tuesday confirmed more of the internal weakness that had been building beneath the major indexes.
ES began resolving its higher-timeframe CVD divergence lower, NQ remained structurally weak, semiconductor leadership deteriorated further and global markets softened.
But strong credit, improving financial internals, RSP resilience, falling yields and subdued VX continue to prevent the move from becoming a confirmed broad risk-off regime.
Wednesday I'm Watching
ES holding or losing 7,755.
ES acceptance beneath 7,735–7,725.
NQ holding 29,480–29,500.
NVDA holding the $217.20 LVN boundary.
VIX/VX reclaiming or rejecting VWAP and EMA-cloud resistance.
HYG/LQD remaining strong.
KRE/XLF financial confirmation.
RSP participation versus SPY.
ADD/VOLD breadth.
Semiconductor leadership through SMH/SOX/AMD/AVGO.
Confidence
Medium
Technical weakness is becoming more credible, but the market still lacks the broad cross-asset confirmation required for a full risk-off classification.
This is my personal market journal and analysis process—not financial advice. GOLD Pullback Holds – Bullish Structure Remains IntactXAUUSD is still trading within a well-defined ascending channel, with price continuing to respect the broader bullish structure. Recently, price pulled back into a key support zone and buyers responded quickly, showing that demand remains strong and the uptrend is still intact.
The current price action suggests that if this support zone continues to hold, XAUUSD could extend higher toward 4,500, which also aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. However, if sellers manage to break below the support area and push price beneath the channel structure, the bullish outlook would weaken and could open the door for a deeper correction.
For now, the structure still favors buyers. Watching how price reacts around this support area will be important for confirmation.
This is just my personal view on the current market structure, not financial advice. Always confirm your setup and manage risk carefully before entering a trade.
Best of luck! Long 
XAUUSD H1 SMC: Retracement to Trendline Precedes Path to 4,450Macro Structure & Order Flow EvolutionFollowing a major liquidity sweep below the 4,000.00 structural low, XAUUSD established a strong macro bullish cycle. The Break of Structure (BOS) above HTF Buy-Side Liquidity (~4,120.00) shifted market control to institutional buyers. Price continues to expand upward within an ascending channel (guided by the red dynamic support line and orange upper boundary), consistently forming higher highs and higher lows.SMC Key Zones & Current Market DynamicsPoint B Liquidity Sweep: Price previously retested Point B, sweeping sell-side liquidity beneath Point A while filling the underlying Fair Value Gap (FVG) and confirming the Institutional Demand Zone around 4,200.00–4,240.00.Current Action: Following recent BOS/CHoCH structural breaks above 4,320.00, price reached a local high near 4,400.00 before initiating a temporary consolidation around 4,401.540.Red Supply Target: An institutional supply zone and liquidity pool remain unfilled at 4,440.00–4,460.00 (red box).Intraday Direction Forecast & Detailed Trade PlanToday's bias remains strongly bullish, but avoiding FOMO buys at current local highs is critical. Price is expected to follow the projected yellow path, pulling back to test dynamic support before initiating the next expansion phase:Directional Forecast: Deep internal retracement to trendline support $\rightarrow$ Institutional buying reaction $\rightarrow$ Bullish expansion toward new highs.Buy Entry Zone: 4,280.00 – 4,320.00 (Confluence of dynamic support line, lower-timeframe FVG, and local demand).Stop Loss (SL): 4,215.00 (Safely anchored below the Point B / 4,220.00 liquidity sweep structural low).Take Profit 1 (TP1): 4,400.00 (Recent local peak / internal buy-side liquidity).Take Profit 2 (TP2): 4,450.00 (Primary target: Red institutional supply zone).Execution Strategy: Allow price to pull back into the 4,280–4,320 demand pocket. Look for lower-timeframe (M5/M15) confirmation via a CHoCH or BOS before executing a Long position targeting 4,450.00. Long 
XAUUSD (Gold) Setup: Upward Channel Breakout & Multi-Target LongGold (CFDs on Gold, 2-hour timeframe) has broken cleanly out of a rising parallel channel, successfully completing a market structure shift (CHoCH / BOS) and holding above the primary Buying area. Price action indicates a continuation setup targeting overhead resistance
Key Technical Highlights:
Channel Breakout & Structure: After consolidating inside an ascending channel and establishing a solid support base near 4,000 - 4,050, price surged upward, confirming bullish momentum.
Structural Objectives:
Target 1: Overhead resistance zone near 4,500
Target 2 (Extended): Major target objective at 4,670
Trading Plan / Setup
Bias: Bullish (Buy / Long)
Entry Zone: Current pullback / retest region (~4,402)
Stop Loss (SL / Invalidation): Placed below structural support / invalidation zone (~4,297)
Take Profit (TP): Scaled across objectives at 4,500 (Resistance) and 4,670 (Target)
Educational Disclaimer: This analysis is published for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial or investment advice. Trading CFDs and commodities involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Always perform your own due diligence and manage your risk accordingly before executing any trades Long 
