EURUSD Technical and Fundamentals AnalysisFundamental bias
For the coming months, the fundamental bias is mildly bullish EURUSD (favoring EUR over USD), with medium confidence.
Key reasons:
The Euro area is closer to “normal” inflation than the US, allowing the ECB to remain neutral while the Fed is pressured to ease more over time.
Market expectations increasingly price a narrowing of the Fed–ECB rate differential and continued soft‑USD environment, with bank forecasts lifting EURUSD toward 1.18–1.20 by year‑end.
PPP and valuation work suggest EUR remains 3–7% undervalued, giving a structural argument for gradual EURUSD upside if there is no severe Eurozone shock.
Risk sentiment is not in full risk‑off mode; in soft‑USD + stable‑Europe regimes, macro funds tend to buy EURUSD on dips rather than sell rallies.
For a trader: bullish EURUSD means you prefer long EUR / short USD exposure, but you respect that short‑term moves are still highly dependent on upcoming US data and ECB/Fed messaging.
Bias risks and invalidation
This bullish bias could be invalidated or reduced if:
US inflation re‑accelerates toward or above 4% while growth stays strong, forcing the Fed back into a more hawkish stance and supporting USD yields again.
Euro area data disappoints (revised GDP lower, PMIs soft, services inflation sticky), reviving recession worries or pushing the ECB toward more aggressive easing than currently expected.
Global risk‑off shocks (geopolitics, energy spike, trade tensions) hit Europe harder than the US, boosting demand for USD as the primary safe haven.
Market positioning becomes extremely long EURUSD, making the pair vulnerable to sharp downside squeezes on any strong US data prints.
If those scenarios start to dominate, the bias would shift toward neutral or even mildly bearish EURUSD, especially in the 3–6‑month window.
What to watch next
From here, the key catalysts to monitor are:
US CPI and PPI (e.g., the August 12 CPI release), which currently carry the highest short‑term directional risk for EURUSD; dovish surprises favor EUR, hawkish ones favor USD.
Upcoming ECB meetings and speeches for any sign that they are uncomfortable with a too‑strong euro or with lingering services inflation.
FOMC meetings and Fed communication around the pace of cuts in late 2026, relative to market pricing from tools like FedWatch.
Euro area industrial production and current‑account data, to confirm whether the Eurozone story remains “weak but stable” or slips back toward stagnation.
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JPYUSD: Descending Wedge Formation, Levels to Watch Next!Hello Community,
welcome to this new analysis about JPYUSD from an hourly timeframe perspective. JPYUSD in recent times dropped strongly to lower levels, testing remaining zones within the structure. Now, I detected the underlying formation, which will be important to watch in the upcoming times. When this formation completes, there could be a major market turning.
When looking at my chart now, we can watch how JPYUSD trades within this descending wedge structure. Within this formation, it is also forming the wave count reaching out to the final wave E destination point. This wave has support within the 400-EMA marked in green and the 300-EMA marked in grey. It also has a horizontal support base in this area.
Once the price approaches these zones, as seen in my chart, this will lead to a potential reversal along the line if the price bounces within this area. In this case, there is a good potential for the descending wedge to complete with a breakout above the upper boundary. This breakout is likely to activate the upper target zones as seen in my chart. If the price should drop below this area, this formation could also invalidate when more bearish pressure arises.
In this manner, thank you a lot for watching!
The support is highly appreciated.
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AI Boom or Bust?Most people have been calling the top in AI for over a year now, those people were deservedly punished. We were long chip stocks for well over 4 years, I posted many chip trade ideas to you guys if you follow my trades.
Now the market has melted down, and we are close to the SK Hynix earnings call following the large meltdown we predicted close to the top.
With cash to deploy, time to analyse beaten down AI stocks, this time in the risky world of high debt and Neo Cloud compute.
Coreweave provides a fascinating set up and a possible trade opportunity sitting at support. The stock lagged peers including Nebius, which went on an epic run. CoreWeave operates an active fleet of over 100,000+ GPUs (having deployed over 50,000 Grace Blackwell GPUs in Q4 2025 alone). This gives CoreWeave approximately 10x the operational GPU capacity of its nearest neocloud peer, Nebius.
Why it could bounce from here?
CRWV holds a $99.4B RPO backlog and expanding margins into H2 2026 as newly fit out data centers come online. If Q2 earnings show margin stabilization or debt refinancing progress, oversold technicals could trigger a violent short squeeze back toward the volume profile cluster.
The Bearish Catalyst (Why it could break down): CRWV is carrying $35.1B in debt with $7.55B maturing within 12 months and a negative single quarter FCF burn. If Q2 guidance hints at further CapEx inflation or debt service pressure, the $66.44 Fib level will break, quickly pulling price down toward $56.62.
Technicals Breakdown:
The 0.786 Fib holds ($66.44) + oversold bounce ahead of or post-earnings.
Entry Zone: $66.00 – $67.50
Stop Loss: $63.50 (strict exit if $66.44 fails to avoid the $56.62 vacuum). I will keep a soft stop loss here, as I may chose to add more if I like what I see from a fundamental perspective.
Not financial advice, do what's best for you.
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POLYPLEX LTD MONTHLY ANALYSIS# POLYPLEX LTD. — LONG-TERM BULLISH TRAJECTORY
### **Liquidity Sweep → Discount Accumulation → FVG Repricing**
**Timeframe:** Monthly
**CMP:** ₹1,229.60
**Structure:** **Bullish reversal / long-term accumulation**
## Executive Summary
POLYPLEX has undergone a prolonged corrective phase from the 2022 peak near ₹2,870 and has now returned to a **deep discount region**, where the chart shows a major bullish FVG/demand zone.
The most important structural event is the sweep of the **52-week low / external sell-side liquidity around ₹750** followed by a strong bullish displacement.
This creates the foundation for a potential **multi-stage repricing toward higher liquidity pools**.
### Primary thesis:
**₹750 liquidity sweep → accumulation → bullish displacement → retracement → ₹1,474 → ₹1,698 → ₹2,441 → ₹2,523+**
---
## 🟢 TRADE BIAS: LONG
### Preferred Accumulation Zone
**₹850–₹1250**
The chart's highlighted demand/FVG region provides the preferred area for accumulating on weakness rather than chasing the current expansion.
### Current Price
**₹1,229.60**
Price has already moved substantially away from the original demand zone, so fresh entries at current levels carry less attractive risk/reward.
---
## 🎯 TRAJECTORY
### TP1 — ₹1,474
First major buy-side liquidity objective.
A sustained move above this level would confirm that the current recovery is progressing beyond the initial reversal phase.
### TP2 — ₹1,698
Major historical liquidity/resistance.
This is the next significant structural objective after ₹1,474.
### TP3 — ₹2,441
Major bearish imbalance / **-IFVG** zone.
This region represents a substantial repricing target and should be treated as a major reaction area.
### TP4 — ₹2,523
Buy-side liquidity above the previous structural level.
A successful breakout through ₹2,523 opens the path toward the broader premium region.
### Extended Objective — ₹2,868+
The previous major high represents the ultimate long-term liquidity objective visible on the chart.
---
## MARKET STRUCTURE
POLYPLEX experienced a major decline from approximately **₹2,870 → ₹750**, creating a large long-term discount.
The important change occurred around the **₹750 region**, where price swept external sell-side liquidity and subsequently produced a strong bullish reaction.
The current structure therefore has three major phases:
**1. Distribution**
₹2,870 → ₹1,500+
**2. Capitulation / Liquidity Sweep**
₹1,500 → ₹750
**3. Accumulation & Repricing**
₹750 → ₹1,229+
The third phase is currently developing.
---
## 🔥 WHY THE SETUP IS INTERESTING
### 1. External SSL Sweep
The market traded into the **₹750 region**, taking the external sell-side liquidity marked on the chart.
### 2. Discount Location
The entire current accumulation structure remains substantially below the historical high.
### 3. Bullish FVG
The green FVG around **₹750–₹960** represents the principal demand/repricing zone.
### 4. Structural Recovery
Price has moved from the ₹750 region to above ₹1,200, indicating meaningful displacement away from the lows.
### 5. Multiple Buy-Side Liquidity Pools
Above the current price, the chart provides a clear sequence:
**₹1,474 → ₹1,698 → ₹2,441 → ₹2,523 → ₹2,868**
This creates a well-defined long-term liquidity roadmap.
---
# 📈 PROJECTED PATH
**₹1,229**
↓
**₹1,474**
↓
**₹1,698**
↓
**₹2,000–₹2,200**
↓
**₹2,441**
↓
**₹2,523**
↓
**₹2,868+**
The path does **not** imply a straight-line rally. Retracements and consolidation should be expected between each major liquidity objective.
---
## ⚠️ INVALIDATION
The bullish thesis materially weakens if price loses the major accumulation structure and begins accepting below the **₹750 external SSL region**.
A sustained breakdown below the structural low would indicate that the liquidity sweep did not establish a durable long-term reversal.
---
## EXECUTION FRAMEWORK
For a fresh position, the preferred approach is:
**DO NOT CHASE THE EXPANSION.**
Instead:
**Retracement → FVG/Demand → Confirmation → Long**
The **₹850–₹980 region** is therefore more attractive from a risk/reward perspective than entering aggressively after the current expansion.
---
# FINAL VIEW
POLYPLEX is transitioning from a prolonged **discounted accumulation structure into a potential long-term repricing phase**.
The key event was the **external sell-side liquidity sweep near ₹750** followed by bullish displacement.
If the structure remains intact, the higher-timeframe liquidity roadmap points toward:
### **₹1,474 → ₹1,698 → ₹2,441 → ₹2,523 → ₹2,868+**
The most important principle is **patience**. The strongest asymmetric opportunity would come from a controlled retracement into the highlighted demand/FVG rather than chasing price after a large expansion.
**LONG-TERM BIAS: 🟢 BULLISH**
*This publication is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The projected levels are technical scenarios, not guaranteed targets. Equities can experience significant volatility and drawdowns. Conduct independent research, define risk in advance, and use appropriate position sizing before taking any position.*
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XAU/USD 15M — Bullish Continuation Toward Buy-Side LiquidityGold is currently maintaining a bullish market direction on the 15M timeframe. The overall structure shows a transition from the earlier bearish phase into a clear bullish sequence, with higher lows and strong upside displacement.
The first important confirmation on the chart is the Market Structure Shift around 4360–4365. Price broke above the previous structure and established a new bullish bias. After this shift, the market expanded strongly toward the 4435 area, confirming that buyers had taken control.
During the subsequent retracement, price returned into the marked FVG + Order Block zone around 4350–4365. This area acted as a major demand zone, producing multiple reactions and preventing a deeper bearish continuation. The repeated respect of this zone strengthens its importance within the current bullish structure.
The chart also shows a smaller FVG around 4390–4400. Price interacted with this imbalance during the recovery and subsequently pushed higher, showing that the area was being used as part of the bullish continuation structure.
Another major component is the ascending trendline drawn from the 4320 region. This trendline has continued to support the sequence of higher lows. Price has respected it throughout the recovery, so it remains an important structural guide for the current bullish direction.
On the right side of the chart, price produced another Market Structure Shift around 4400–4405, breaking the previous swing structure and accelerating toward the 4410–4415 region. This confirms renewed bullish momentum.
The gray projected price path on the chart suggests a potential short-term pullback/retest after the recent bullish expansion, followed by another upside move. A controlled retracement while the bullish structure and trendline remain intact would be consistent with continuation rather than an immediate trend reversal.
Above the market, the major objective is the clearly marked Buy-Side Liquidity around 4435.39. This level sits above the previous major swing high and represents the key liquidity pool that price may seek next.
The blue premium zone between approximately 4420 and 4435 is therefore an important area to monitor. Price may encounter temporary resistance inside this zone, but a successful continuation through it would open the path toward the marked buy-side liquidity.
📌 Overall Market Direction
BULLISH 📈
The combination of the Market Structure Shifts, FVG, FVG + Order Block demand zone, ascending trendline, higher-low structure, and untouched Buy-Side Liquidity near 4435 keeps the broader 15M bias bullish.
The main scenario shown on the chart is short-term retracement/retest → bullish continuation → Buy-Side Liquidity sweep near 4435.39. A decisive breakdown of the major bullish structure and trendline would be required to invalidate this continuation view. XAU/USD Bearish Setup: Gold Targets 4,250 After Rejection from 4Gold has rejected strongly from the 4,400 area and is now trading near 4,365, showing short-term bearish momentum. The main resistance/sell zone is approximately 4,376–4,403.
Sell zone: 4,376 – 4,403
Stop-loss / invalidation: Above 4,404
Support: 4,350, 4,320, 4,300
Main bearish target: 4,250 – 4,249
As long as price remains below 4,376–4,403, sellers have the advantage. A sustained break above 4,404 would weaken the bearish setup.
One caution: the backtest panel shows only a 29.5% win rate and 0.62 profit factor, so the indicator should not be used alone for trade decisions. WTI Crude Oil awaits credible Hormuz reopening agreementWTI crude remains firmly supported as the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues with no clear agreement to reopen the waterway. Iranian officials are signalling that the Strait will remain closed until broader conditions are met, suggesting the disruption could persist for longer than initially expected.
This is increasingly being reflected in the oil market. Brent has risen for six consecutive sessions and is now around $89.74/bbl, while longer-dated prices are also moving higher. The rise across the futures curve is important because it suggests traders are beginning to price a more prolonged supply disruption rather than simply reacting to short-term headlines.
For WTI, the key risk is therefore further upside volatility, particularly if negotiations between Iran and Oman fail to produce a credible reopening agreement. Any escalation in US-Iran rhetoric or evidence that shipping through Hormuz will remain restricted could quickly push crude higher.
The main near-term counterweight is US inflation data. July CPI is due at 13:30 London time, with markets particularly sensitive to the result because expectations for the Fed's September decision are almost evenly balanced. A stronger-than-expected CPI could reinforce inflation concerns and potentially pressure risk assets, although for crude the initial reaction may depend on whether the market focuses more on higher inflation or the resulting impact on Fed policy and demand expectations.
Conclusion
The bias for WTI remains bullish in the near term. The combination of a prolonged Hormuz closure, hawkish Iranian rhetoric and rising prices across the futures curve supports further upside. However, WTI is becoming increasingly sensitive to headline risk and today's CPI could create significant volatility. A sustained move above recent highs would strengthen the bullish case, while any credible Hormuz reopening agreement would be the key catalyst for a sharp downside reversal.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 8,656
Resistance Level 2: 8,840
Resistance Level 3: 9,030
Support Level 1: 7,840
Support Level 2: 7,600
Support Level 3: 7,390
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Strong support ahead as price falls?Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling toward the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce toward the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.7021
1st Support: 0.7001
1st Resistance: 0.7069
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