TRADLEWARE-Gaussian Channel + StochRSI BTC
TRADLEWARE - Gaussian Channel + Stochastic RSI
This strategy combines a Gaussian Channel with a Stochastic RSI filter to capture momentum continuation in trending markets on the daily timeframe.
How it works
The Gaussian Channel is a smoothed price envelope built with an IIR (infinite impulse response) filter — a mathematically elegant alternative to a simple moving average. Instead of weighting recent bars linearly, the Gaussian filter applies a bell-curve weighting that produces very smooth, low-lag output. The channel is formed by adding and subtracting a filtered measure of true range (volatility) around the central filter line.
The channel turns green when the filter is rising (uptrend) and red when it is falling (downtrend).
Entry
A long position is opened when all three conditions are true simultaneously:
The channel is green (filter rising — uptrend confirmed)
Price closes above the upper band (breakout above the channel)
Stochastic RSI %K is either above 80 (strong momentum confirming the breakout) or below 15 (oversold dip within the uptrend)
The dual Stochastic RSI threshold captures two different entry scenarios: a momentum breakout and a pullback-and-recover within an ongoing trend.
Exit
The position is closed when either:
Price closes back below the upper band (breakout has failed or the trend is cooling), or
The channel reverses from green to red (trend direction has flipped)
An optional stop-loss (on by default) is placed at the lower band and trails as the channel moves, providing a floor on losses if price drops sharply through both the upper and lower bands in the same move.
Parameters
Poles: 4 (filter smoothness — higher = smoother but more lag)
Sampling Period: 144 (slow channel, suited to daily trends)
True Range Multiplier: 1.414 (controls channel width)
Stochastic RSI overbought threshold: 80
Stochastic RSI oversold threshold: 15
Stop-loss at lower band: on by default, can be disabled
Start/End date range inputs let you restrict the backtest window without editing code
Costs modelled
0.1% commission per side, 3 ticks slippage, fills at next bar's open.
Intended assets and timeframe
Daily bars. Designed and validated on BTC/USDT. Likely applicable to other trending crypto assets; not validated on equities .
Known limitations
Underperforms in choppy or ranging markets — the upper band breakout condition generates whipsaws when price oscillates without directional conviction. The filter requires several hundred bars of history to fully converge; results on very short histories may differ from the validated backtest. The strategy trades infrequently (around 30 trades from 2018 to present on BTC/USDT), so treat any single backtest run as a small sample rather than a statistically strong result.
Credit
The Gaussian Channel filter is from the open-source "Gaussian Channel (DW)" indicator by DonovanWall. This script reuses that filter and adds the Stochastic RSI entry filter, exit rules, stop-loss, and full strategy order management on top of it.
Strategy
TCP | Dominance Dashboard | Crypto Version🚀 Crypto Dominance Dashboard Pro
A Complete Dashboard for Monitoring Crypto Market Rotation
Understanding where capital is moving within the cryptocurrency market is one of the most valuable insights for traders and investors.
The crypto market is constantly shifting between Bitcoin, large-cap altcoins, small-cap assets, and stablecoins. Monitoring these rotations manually often requires multiple charts and significant analysis.
Crypto Dominance Dashboard Pro simplifies this process by bringing together the most important dominance metrics, market capitalization indexes, trend analysis, and momentum data into a single, easy-to-read dashboard.
Instead of switching between several charts, you can monitor the overall market structure, evaluate capital rotation, and gain a clearer view of the current market environment from one place.
Whether you're analyzing short-term market movements or following longer-term trends, the dashboard is designed to provide objective market context that can support your own trading and investment decisions.
✨ Features
📊 Comprehensive Market Dashboard
Track the most important crypto market metrics in real time:
• 🟠 Bitcoin (BTC)
• 🔵 Ethereum (ETH)
• 🟡 Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
• 🟣 Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D)
• 🟢 Tether Dominance (USDT.D)
• ⚪ OTHERS Dominance
• 🌍 TOTAL Market Capitalization
• 🌎 TOTAL2 Market Capitalization
• 🌏 TOTAL3 Market Capitalization
• ⚡ ETH/BTC Relative Strength
🔄 Smart Market Regime Detection
The dashboard continuously evaluates multiple market conditions to identify the current market environment.
Possible market regimes include:
🟠 Bullish Bitcoin Environment
🔵 Bullish Large-Cap Altcoin Environment
🟢 Bullish Small-Cap Altcoin Environment
🔴 Bearish Bitcoin Environment
🔴 Bearish Large-Cap Altcoin Environment
⚪ Neutral / Range Market
Each regime is determined using a combination of dominance metrics, trend analysis, momentum, and capital rotation instead of relying on a single indicator.
📈 Trend Analysis
Monitor trend direction across key market metrics using moving average analysis.
Included trend detection:
✅ Bitcoin Price
✅ Bitcoin Dominance
✅ OTHERS Dominance
✅ Total Crypto Market
⚡ Momentum Analysis
The dashboard measures momentum across multiple market indexes to provide additional context for market activity.
Percentage change calculations include:
📈 BTC
📈 ETH
📈 BTC.D
📈 ETH.D
📈 USDT.D
📈 OTHERS.D
📈 TOTAL
📈 TOTAL2
📈 TOTAL3
📈 ETH/BTC
This approach helps traders monitor how strength and weakness develop across different areas of the market.
⏱ Automatic Timeframe Adaptation
Market conditions can look very different across timeframes.
To improve consistency, the indicator automatically adjusts its internal thresholds based on the selected chart timeframe.
Supported across:
⏱ 5 Minutes
⏱ 15 Minutes
⏱ 1 Hour
⏱ 4 Hours
⏱ Daily
⏱ Weekly
This adaptive scaling allows the dashboard to remain responsive across multiple trading styles.
💡 Market Outlook
Based on the detected market regime, the dashboard provides an easy-to-read market outlook to help interpret current conditions.
Examples include:
🟠 Bitcoin Leading the Market
🔵 Strength in Large-Cap Altcoins
🟢 Improving Small-Cap Participation
🔴 Defensive / Risk-Off Conditions
⚪ Neutral Market Structure
These summaries are intended to provide additional context and should be considered alongside your own market analysis.
🔔 Built-in Alerts
Receive PulseWire alerts whenever significant market conditions change.
Available alerts include:
✅ Bullish Bitcoin Environment
✅ Bullish Large-Cap Altcoin Environment
✅ Bullish Small-Cap Altcoin Environment
✅ Bearish Bitcoin Environment
✅ Bearish Large-Cap Altcoin Environment
✅ Risk-Off Conditions
Alerts help you stay informed about important market changes without continuously monitoring every chart.
🎨 Clean & Informative Interface
The dashboard is designed to present a large amount of market information in a clear and organized format.
✔ Color-coded momentum
✔ Trend direction indicators
✔ Percentage change tracking
✔ Market regime overview
✔ Market outlook summary
✔ Automatic timeframe scaling
Everything is organized to provide quick access to the information that matters most.
👥 Who Is This Indicator For?
Crypto Dominance Dashboard Pro is suitable for:
📌 Day Traders
📌 Swing Traders
📌 Position Traders
📌 Scalpers
📌 Long-Term Investors
📌 Portfolio Managers
📌 Market Analysts
Anyone interested in monitoring market structure and capital rotation can benefit from this dashboard.
🎯 Why Use Crypto Dominance Dashboard Pro?
Price is only one part of the market.
Dominance metrics, market capitalization indexes, relative strength, momentum, and trend analysis each provide a different perspective on market behavior.
By bringing these elements together into one dashboard, Crypto Dominance Dashboard Pro helps traders monitor changing market conditions, understand capital rotation, and build additional context for their own analysis.
Rather than focusing on a single metric, the dashboard provides a broader view of the crypto market that can support more informed decision-making.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is designed for educational and analytical purposes only.
It is intended to provide market context based on publicly available market data and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice.
Always perform your own research and risk management before making trading or investment decisions.
❤️ Support the Project
If you find this indicator useful, your support is greatly appreciated.
⭐ Add it to your Favorites
👍 Like the script
💬 Leave a review and share your feedback
📢 Share it with other traders who may find it useful
Your feedback helps improve future updates and supports the development of additional tools for the PulseWire community.
Thank you for your support, and happy trading! 🚀
This indicator was designed and developed by TradeCityPro.
Special thanks to the TradeCityPro community for their continuous support, valuable feedback, and contribution to improving this project.
Thank you for your support, and happy trading! 🚀 Indicator
AlphaVault - Regime FilterTwo long-term trend filters and one rule: price above both is a bull regime, below both is
a bear regime, anything in between is neutral. It plots the filters, tints the background
by state, marks each change, and shows how long the current state has held.
NO REPAINTING. Both filters are read from the previous COMPLETED daily and weekly bar
(lookahead_off plus a one-bar offset), so the regime shown for a closed bar never changes
afterwards. This is worth verifying yourself on any indicator you did not write: scroll
back, note the state on an old bar, reload the chart, and check it is the same.
What it is for: deciding whether to be doing anything at all. Most trend systems lose the
majority of their money trying to trade against a long-term downtrend, and a neutral state
is genuinely common — roughly a fifth of all bars on BTC since 2018. Treating "no clear
regime" as a valid answer rather than a gap to be filled is most of the value here.
What it is not: an entry signal. It tells you which direction is permitted, not when to
act, and it will keep you out of some large moves that begin before the filters confirm.
It is deliberately slow. On BTC it changes state a handful of times a year.
Defaults are a 200-period SMA on daily closes and a 20-period EMA on weekly closes. Both
lengths are configurable, though the defaults are the ones worth arguing about — a filter
you re-tune until it looks good on the chart in front of you has stopped being a filter.
Alerts fire on a turn to bull, a turn to bear, or any change. Regime changes are rare by
construction; an alert that fires constantly is one you learn to ignore.
Open source. Read it, change it, take it apart. Indicator
BTC On-Chain Value Zones [MVRV]BTC Onchain Value Zones (MVRV)
Bitcoin has a cost basis. Realized Price is the average price at which every coin in circulation last moved onchain, which makes it a reasonable proxy for what the average holder actually paid. This script plots that level directly on your price chart and builds valuation zones around it.
MVRV is just price divided by Realized Price. When MVRV falls under 1, the average holder is sitting at a loss. Historically that condition has clustered around cycle lows and long accumulation ranges. When MVRV stretches well above 2.5, the market is carrying a large amount of unrealized profit, and historically that has clustered around distribution phases and cycle highs. It is a slow, structural read, not a trade trigger.
Why I rebuilt it
The common version of this idea relied on the IntoTheBlock MVRV feed. That feed stopped updating in August 2025 and PulseWire flagged it as discontinued. Scripts using it did not throw an error. They quietly froze on a stale value and kept plotting a line that meant nothing, which is worse than breaking outright.
This version calculates MVRV itself from two live feeds:
Realized Price = Realized Cap / Circulating Supply
MVRV = Price / Realized Price
Realized Cap comes from CoinMetrics and Circulating Supply from Glassnode. If either symbol is unavailable on your plan, the script falls back to an alternate ticker automatically. If supply goes dark entirely, it derives supply from market cap divided by price so the realized line keeps working rather than vanishing.
The zones
Deep buy below 0.85, meaning capitulation territory where holders are heavily underwater.
Buy below 1.0, meaning price sits under the aggregate cost basis.
Fair value between 1.0 and 2.5.
Sell above 2.5.
Euphoria above 3.5.
Every threshold is adjustable in settings. The zones are drawn in price terms, not as an oscillator, so you can see exactly what dollar level each multiple sits at right now.
Signals
Markers fire when MVRV crosses a threshold on the daily close. Triangles mark entries into the buy and sell zones, labels mark deep value and euphoria, and a circle marks the moment price reclaims its cost basis, which has historically been a useful bottom confirmation. Alerts are available for each event individually, for any buy event, for any sell event, and for a stale data feed.
Diagnostics
Two tables. The top right shows current MVRV, realized price in dollars, the active zone, how many days old the onchain data is, and which feeds are supplying it. The bottom right lists all six candidate symbols with their current values, marked green if live and red if dead. If a data provider retires a ticker two years from now, you will see it immediately instead of trusting a frozen line.
How to use it
Onchain data updates once per day, so use this on a daily chart or higher. It is built for position sizing and accumulation decisions across weeks and months, not for entries. Treat the zones as context for whatever you are already doing.
One honest caveat. MVRV peaks have declined with every cycle as Bitcoin has matured and the holder base has grown. The 3.5 euphoria level was routine in 2013 and 2017 and has been harder to reach since. Adjust the upper thresholds to fit the market you are actually trading rather than assuming past extremes will repeat.
This is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Indicator
Bitcoin Almanac [WillyAlgoTrader]₿ Bitcoin Almanac is an overlay indicator that maps the entire Bitcoin macro landscape on one chart: a fixed-length cycle time model (bull/bear phases projected from a single anchor date), two hyperbolic curves fitted through historical cycle lows and cycle highs in log-price space, Fibonacci grids stretched between every macro pivot, halving markers, accumulation and distribution zones, and a hypothetical price path for the next bull leg — all summarized in a live dashboard with projected turn dates, curve prices, and historical correction depths.
The core insight: Bitcoin's completed cycles show a remarkably stable time rhythm (roughly 1064 days up, 364 days down) and a decelerating growth pattern that a hyperbola in log10(price) captures with surprisingly small error. Neither observation is a law of nature — but when the time model and the price curves are combined on one chart, they produce concrete, falsifiable reference points: a projected top date with a curve price, a projected bottom date with a curve price, and buy/sell zones derived from both. The indicator makes the whole framework explicit, configurable, and honest about its assumptions.
Everything is driven by dates and user-defined pivots — not by real-time price action — so nothing repaints: the lines you see today are the lines you saw yesterday.
🧩 WHY THESE COMPONENTS WORK TOGETHER
A cycle-date model alone answers WHEN but not AT WHAT PRICE. A curve through historical lows answers WHERE support migrates but not WHEN price will meet it. Fibonacci retracements answer WHERE pullbacks tend to end, but only if you know which macro leg to anchor them to. Used separately, each tool leaves you guessing at the missing dimension.
Bitcoin Almanac chains them into one pipeline:
Cycle time model (anchor + phase lengths) → projected turn dates → hyperbolic lows/highs curves → curve price AT each projected date → Fibonacci grids between macro pivots → 0.786–0.836 accumulation zones bounded by cycle end dates → ±% distribution zones around each high → replayed bull-path projection between the two curve endpoints → dashboard synthesis
The time model supplies the X-coordinate of every future event. The two hyperbolas supply the Y-coordinate: the lows curve is evaluated exactly at the projected bottom date, the highs curve exactly at the projected top date — the "◎ cycle × curve" labels mark these intersections with date and price. The Fibonacci grids are then anchored to the same pivots the curves are built from, so the 0.786–0.836 buy zone of the current leg stretches in time precisely to the model's next cycle-bottom date. Finally, the projection module takes the two curve × date intersections as endpoints and fills the path between them by replaying the shape of the previous bull phase in log space.
No single component can do this: the intersection of an independent time model with an independent price model is what turns two vague trajectories into specific, checkable coordinates.
🔍 WHAT MAKES IT ORIGINAL
1️⃣ Fixed-rhythm cycle engine — pure time math, zero price input.
The phase of any bar is computed directly from calendar time:
daysSince = (barTime − anchor) / 86 400 000
phasePos = daysSince mod (bullDays + bearDays)
isBull = phasePos < bullDays
Defaults: anchor = 07 Nov 2022, bullDays = 1064, bearDays = 364 (each ≈ the average of the three completed BTC cycles). A true mathematical modulo (always ≥ 0) phases bars BEFORE the anchor correctly, so past cycles line up too. With defaults this reproduces the well-known projected dates: top ≈ 06 Oct 2025, bottom ≈ 05 Oct 2026. An alternative anchor (21 Nov 2022 — the actual lowest trade of the cycle) is documented right in the input tooltip and shifts the bottom to 19 Oct 2026.
Why this matters: because the phase depends only on time, the bull/bear background, turn lines and flip alerts are deterministic and cannot repaint — the model's claims are fully falsifiable in advance.
2️⃣ Hyperbolic curve through cycle lows — exact geometry or least-squares fit, with the error printed on the chart.
The lows model is log10(price) = a + b / (c − t), where t is days from the first pivot. The hyperbola has a vertical asymptote in the past and a horizontal asymptote in the future — it encodes decelerating growth, which a straight log-regression line cannot.
— With exactly 3 enabled lows (default: Aug 2015 ≈ $169, Dec 2018 ≈ $3 122, Nov 2022 ≈ $15 476) the three parameters are solved exactly — the curve passes through the pivots by construction. This is geometry, not statistics, and the label says so: "exact through 3 lows".
— With 4+ enabled lows (three optional early-history slots: 2011, 2013, 2015 are provided) the indicator switches to a least-squares fit: a coarse log-spaced search over 250 candidate asymptote positions, followed by a 200-step linear refinement around the best candidate. The curve label then reports the number of points and the RMSE in log10 units — the fit quality is never hidden.
A fit is accepted only if b > 0 and the asymptote c lies before the earliest pivot — degenerate solutions are rejected and the curve simply doesn't draw.
3️⃣ Second independent hyperbola through cycle highs.
The same model is fitted to cycle tops (defaults: Nov 2013 ≈ $1 238, Dec 2017 ≈ $19 700, Nov 2021 ≈ $69 000, Oct 2025 ≈ $126 200 — four points, so LS fit with visible RMSE). A fifth, disabled slot exists only if you want to force the fit through your own future target; you never need it for the projection, because the future top is marked automatically at the crossing of the highs curve with the projected top date.
Why two curves: lows and highs decelerate at different rates. Fitting them independently (instead of offsetting one curve) lets the model express a narrowing channel without assuming its shape.
4️⃣ "Cycle × curve" intersection labels — the model's testable predictions.
At the projected bottom date the lows curve is evaluated: ◎ label with date ≈ price. At the projected top date the highs curve is evaluated: ◎ label with date ≈ price. These two points are the indicator's headline output — a date AND a price for each future turn, derived from two independent models. Both curves extend beyond their intersection as dashed lines (lows: default 10 years, highs: 5 years) to show the long-term trajectory.
5️⃣ Macro Fibonacci grids with a time-bounded 0.786–0.836 accumulation zone.
All enabled lows and highs are merged chronologically; every leg between two pivots of opposite type receives a grid (low→high = bull grid, high→low = bear grid; same-type neighbours are skipped). Levels are fully user-defined (default: 0, 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786, 0.836, 0.886, 1; values > 1 add extensions).
Two non-standard options:
— Log-scale interpolation : level price = 10^(log10(pA) + f × (log10(pB) − log10(pA))) — matches a fib tool drawn on a log chart. Off by default (arithmetic levels for a linear chart).
— Reverse mode (default ON): ratio 0 sits at the END of the leg, so on a bull leg 0.618 is the classic retracement below the high.
The 0.786–0.836 zone of each bull leg is highlighted as a "BUY ZONE" box — and here is the original part: the box stretches in time from the leg start to the end date of the cycle the leg belongs to (the next projected cycle bottom). Depth from the fib model, deadline from the time model — the zone is a rectangle in (price × time), not just a price band.
6️⃣ Distribution zones tied to the cycle skeleton.
Every enabled high gets a "SELL ZONE" box spanning high ± sellPct (default 5% → from high × 0.95 to high × 1.05). The time span runs from the LATER of (a) the latest enabled low before that high or (b) the model's cycle bottom immediately preceding it — so a projected 2029 high starts its zone at the projected Oct-2026 bottom, not at a 2022 pivot. If no enabled high exists in the upcoming cycle, a projected sell zone is created automatically at the highs-curve × projected-date crossing (duplicate-guarded within half a cycle).
7️⃣ Bull-path projection — fractal replay of the previous bull, rescaled in log space.
The path for the NEXT bull phase (with defaults: 05 Oct 2026 → 03 Sep 2029) is drawn between two model-derived endpoints: start = lows curve at the projected bottom, end = highs curve at the following projected top. Two shapes:
— Replay last bull (default): the log-price trajectory of the previous bull phase is recorded bar by bar (confirmed bars only, thinned to ≤ 400 samples for memory safety on intraday timeframes), then linearly rescaled: y(progress) = yStart + (ref(progress) − ref(0)) × (yEnd − yStart) / (ref(1) − ref(0)). The result keeps the timing character of the last cycle — early acceleration, mid-cycle chop, late blow-off — mapped onto the new endpoints.
— Log-linear : a straight line on a log chart between the endpoints. The replay mode automatically falls back to log-linear if the reference phase covers less than 90% of the bull duration.
The path is explicitly labeled "◇ PROJECTED PATH (hypothetical)" — it is a scenario generator, not a forecast.
8️⃣ Corrections table — every macro drawdown since 2014, including the unfinished one.
The dashboard lists every completed high → following-low leg between enabled pivots since 2014 as a % drop (e.g. 2017–2018: −84%). If the latest pivot is a high with no low after it, the current correction is projected : measured from that high to the lows-curve price at the next model bottom, and marked "(proj.)" in accent color. You always see how the ongoing decline compares with history.
9️⃣ Full-transparency dashboard with a phase gauge and next-leg scenario PNL.
Four toggleable sections: Cycle (phase, day X / Y, ██████░░░░ progress gauge), Projection (top and bottom dates with days-left counters and curve prices, plus the hypothetical PNL of the next bull leg: (topCurve / bottomCurve − 1) × 100% and the × multiple), Corrections (see 8️⃣), Ranges (nearest upcoming buy range = the 0.786–0.836 zone prices; nearest sell range = the ±% zone around the next projected high). The footer states the calibration chart (INDEX:BTCUSD · W · linear scale, with a live ✓ when you're on it), a timeframe warning, and the sample-size caveat "⚠ Sample size: 3 cycles" — the model's biggest limitation is printed on the chart itself.
🔟 Efficient, tick-stable rendering.
All drawings (500+ polyline points, fib grids, boxes, dashboard) are anchored to bar-open times and first-bar curve fits — nothing changes within a bar. A redraw gate rebuilds them once per new bar instead of on every real-time tick, and both curve fits run exactly once on the first bar. The chart stays responsive even with all modules enabled.
📐 HOW IT WORKS — CALCULATION FLOW
Step 1 — Parse pivots: on the first bar, all enabled lows and highs are converted to (days-from-first-pivot, log10(price)) pairs.
Step 2 — Fit the curves: each set is fitted to log10(price) = a + b/(c − t) — exact solve for 3 points, two-stage least-squares search for 4+. Fit validity is checked (b > 0, asymptote before the data).
Step 3 — Phase every bar: calendar-time modulo against the anchor determines bull/bear phase, day-in-phase, and the timestamps of the current, next bottom and next top.
Step 4 — Evaluate intersections: the lows curve at the projected bottom date and the highs curve at the projected top date become the model's price targets.
Step 5 — Record the reference bull: during the anchor cycle's bull phase, confirmed closes are stored as (progress, log10 price) — the shape later replayed by the projection.
Step 6 — Draw (once per bar): turn lines and labels for N past and M future cycles, both hyperbolas with dashed extensions, fib grids per alternating pivot leg, buy/sell zone boxes, halving lines (2012 / 2016 / 2020 / 2024 solid, Apr 2028 dashed "(est.)"), the projected path, the dashboard and the watermark.
Step 7 — Alert: on confirmed bars, phase flips and the pre-turn countdown fire alert() calls in text or JSON format.
📖 HOW TO USE
🎯 Quick start:
1. Open the INDEX:BTCUSD chart, Weekly timeframe, regular (linear) price scale — the model is calibrated there, and the dashboard shows a ✓ when the symbol and timeframe match (the scale must be checked manually — Pine cannot detect it).
2. Add the indicator. The green/red background immediately shows the model's current phase; the dashboard shows the day count and progress gauge.
3. Find the two ◎ labels — the projected bottom (orange, lows curve) and the projected top (red, highs curve). These are the model's date + price coordinates for the next turns.
4. Check the yellow boxes: BUY ZONE (0.786–0.836 of the current bull leg, extended to the cycle end date) and SELL ZONE (±5% around each high).
5. Create ONE alert with condition "Any alert() function call" to receive flips and the pre-turn countdown.
👁️ Reading the chart:
— 🟢 Green background = model bull phase; 🔴 red = bear phase
— Solid green verticals = cycle bottoms; dashed red verticals = cycle tops; future turns are labeled ★ PROJECTED and drawn brighter
— 🟠 Orange curve = hyperbola through cycle lows (solid to the projected bottom, then dashed extension)
— 🔴 Red curve = hyperbola through cycle highs (solid to the projected top, then dashed extension)
— Small circles = the exact pivots each curve is built from
— ◎ labels = cycle × curve intersections with date, ≈ price, and fit info (point count + RMSE, or "exact through 3")
— Fib grids between macro pivots: solid edges (0 / 1), dashed 0.5, dotted intermediate levels, price + ratio labels on the right
— 🟡 Yellow boxes = BUY ZONE (0.786–0.836, time-bounded by the cycle end) and SELL ZONE (±% around highs; "(proj.)" = auto-generated at the projected top)
— ⛏ Grey verticals = halvings; the 2028 line is dashed and marked "(est.)"
— 🔵 Blue dashed path = hypothetical next-bull trajectory with its ◇ end label
📊 Dashboard fields:
— Phase / Phase day / Progress : current model phase, day within it, and a 10-segment gauge
— Proj. top / Proj. bottom : projected turn dates, days remaining, and the curve price at each date
— Next leg PNL : hypothetical bottom→top move of the next bull leg in % and as a × multiple — a scenario, not a forecast
— Corrections : every completed macro drawdown since 2014 (high → following low, %), plus the unfinished one projected to the curve bottom and marked (proj.)
— Next buy range / Next sell range : the price boundaries of the nearest upcoming accumulation and distribution zones
— Footer: recommended chart check, timeframe warning, sample-size caveat, version
🔧 Tuning guide:
— Curve doesn't draw: fewer than 3 pivots enabled, or the fit was rejected as degenerate — enable at least 3 lows (or highs) with sensible dates/prices.
— You disagree with a pivot price: every pivot is an editable date + price input — correct it and both the curve and the fib grids rebuild instantly.
— Want dates matching the actual price low: switch the anchor to 21 Nov 2022 (documented in the tooltip); the projected bottom moves to 19 Oct 2026.
— Fib levels look wrong on a log chart: enable "Log-scale levels" (keep it OFF on the recommended linear chart).
— Chart feels crowded: disable individual modules (grids, zones, halvings, projection) or dashboard sections — every block has its own switch.
— Curious about 2030+: enable "Show 2nd projected cycle" for one more bottom/top pair (~Sep 2030 / ~Aug 2033) — off by default because those dates carry double model uncertainty.
💡 Trading ideas:
— Accumulation planning : scale into the 0.786–0.836 BUY ZONE while the model is in its bear phase; the zone's right edge tells you the model's deadline.
— Distribution planning : scale out inside the ±5% SELL ZONE as the projected top date approaches; the pre-alert (default 30 days) gives you a heads-up.
— Scenario testing : move pivots, change phase lengths, or force High #5 to your own target and watch how the whole framework (curves, zones, PNL) responds — the model is a sandbox, not an oracle.
⚙️ KEY SETTINGS
⚙️ Cycle Model:
— Anchor — cycle bottom (default 07 Nov 2022): date all phases are projected from; alternative 21 Nov 2022 documented in the tooltip
— Bull phase length (default 1064 days) / Bear phase length (default 364 days): ≈ averages of the 3 completed cycles
— Cycles to draw back (default 3) / forward (default 1): how many turn lines and labels are drawn
— Show 2nd projected cycle (default off): one extra bottom/top pair with doubled uncertainty
🎨 Visual Settings:
— Theme (Auto / Dark / Light): Auto detects from the chart background; all text colors adapt
— Phase background , Cycle turn lines , Turn labels , Watermark : independent toggles with color inputs
📊 Dashboard:
— Position (4 corners), font size (Small–Huge; dividers render one step smaller), and per-section switches: Cycle / Projection / Corrections / Ranges
📈 Hyperbola — Lows:
— 3 main cycle lows (2015 / 2018 / 2022, on by default) + 3 optional early-history lows (2011 / 2013 / 2015) — each is a checkbox + date + price
— Dashed extension (default 10 years), curve color, anchor-point markers
📉 Hyperbola — Highs:
— 4 cycle highs (2013 / 2017 / 2021 / 2025, on by default) + a spare projected slot (off), extension (default 5 years), curve color
🔢 Fibonacci Grids:
— Bull grids (default on) / Bear grids (default off) with separate colors
— Levels (default "0, 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786, 0.836, 0.886, 1"; values > 1 = extensions)
— Highlight 0.786–0.836 zone (default on), Log-scale levels (default off), Reverse (default on), level labels
⛏ Halvings: lines + labels toggles, color
🟡 Sell Zones: toggle, color, Zone size % from high (default 5%)
🔮 Price Projection: toggle, Path shape (Replay last bull / Log-linear), color
🔔 Alerts: master switch, Webhook JSON Format (default off), Pre-alert days (default 30)
🔔 ALERTS
— 🟢 CYCLE FLIP → BULL — model bottom date reached; payload: ticker, timeframe, price, next projected top date
— 🔴 CYCLE FLIP → BEAR — model top date reached; payload: ticker, timeframe, price, next projected bottom date
— ⏳ CYCLE TURN APPROACHING — fires once, N days (default 30) before the next projected turn; payload: turn type (TOP/BOTTOM), days left, date
All alerts fire on confirmed bars only (once per bar close) and support both human-readable text and JSON webhook payloads for bot integration. Create a single alert with condition "Any alert() function call".
⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
— 🚫 No repainting. The cycle phase is pure calendar-time math against a fixed anchor; the curves are fitted once from user-defined historical pivots; the reference bull shape is recorded from confirmed bars only; all alerts use bar-close frequency. Nothing in the model reads unconfirmed real-time data, so no line, zone or label moves after the fact.
— 📐 Sample size: 3 completed cycles. Every statistical claim in this model rests on three observations. The hyperbolic fits are geometry/regression over 3–6 points. Treat all projected dates and prices as reference scenarios with wide error bars — the dashboard says "Rhythm ≠ law" for a reason.
— 📏 Calibrated chart: INDEX:BTCUSD, Weekly, regular (linear) price scale. Exchange charts start later and distort early-history fits. Keep the fib "Log-scale levels" input OFF on a linear chart. The dashboard's ✓ confirms symbol and timeframe; the scale must be checked manually.
— ⚖️ Scope: this is a macro-cycle framework for Bitcoin. It produces no intraday entry signals, no stop placement, and no position sizing. The projected path is explicitly hypothetical.
— 🛠️ This is a cycle-analysis and scenario-visualization tool, not an automated trading bot. It provides projected turn dates, curve-based price references, and accumulation/distribution zones — trade decisions remain yours.
— 🌐 The script runs on any symbol and timeframe, but the model is designed for Bitcoin on Daily/Weekly charts — a dashboard warning appears on intraday timeframes.
Bitcoin Almanac · v1.5.2 Indicator
Bitcoin Halving Cycle Strategy [Gabremoku]This script is a Bitcoin cycle timing indicator built around the historical halving structure.
The core idea is simple:
- define a Buy window a fixed number of days before each halving,
- define a Sell window a fixed number of days after each halving,
- project the next key dates directly on the chart.
The indicator does not try to predict price with oscillators, momentum formulas, or future-looking data. Instead, it focuses on a structural market rhythm that many Bitcoin traders monitor: the recurring supply shock created by halvings.
How it works
- The script uses known historical Bitcoin halving dates.
- It calculates a Buy date at halving minus N days.
- It calculates a Sell date at halving plus N days.
- It draws vertical reference lines for Buy, Halving, and Sell events.
- It plots historical labels on the actual event bars.
- It projects the upcoming Buy, Sell, and Halving labels forward to their own future dates on the chart.
- A dashboard summarizes the active cycle, next key date, and remaining days.
What makes this script useful
Most halving tools only mark the halving date itself. This script expands the concept into a complete cycle timeline by transforming each halving into three practical timing landmarks:
1. accumulation window before halving,
2. halving anchor point,
3. distribution window after halving.
This makes the script more useful for traders and investors who want a visual cycle map instead of a single event marker.
How to use it
- Apply it on BTCUSD or BTCUSDT.
- Daily and weekly charts are the most readable timeframes for this model.
- Use "Buy Days Before Halving" to control how early the accumulation window begins.
- Use "Sell Days After Halving" to control how long the post-halving window extends.
- Use the projected labels to monitor the next cycle dates in advance.
- Use the dashboard to read the current phase quickly.
Included features
- Historical halving timeline
- Buy and Sell event mapping
- Future projected labels positioned on future dates
- Optional cycle range highlighting
- Dashboard with next Buy, next Sell, next Halving, and countdown
- Custom colors and label controls
Important notes
- This script is a cycle visualization tool, not financial advice.
- It does not guarantee future market behavior.
- The projected future halving date is used as a timeline estimate for planning and visualization only.
- Past cycle behavior does not guarantee similar future performance.
- For clarity and to avoid misleading output, this script should be used on standard candlestick charts.
This publication is intended to provide a clean and practical timing framework for Bitcoin traders who study halving-driven market cycles rather than signal-based entry systems. Indicator
Indicator
Bitcoin Statistical Forecaster + Power Law [Gabremoku]Bitcoin Statistical Forecaster + Power Law combines two analytical layers into a single BTC-focused overlay.
The first layer is a statistical analog forecaster. It scans historical Bitcoin data and searches for the closest matches to the most recent pattern using a weighted multi-feature distance model based on candle structure, volatility, momentum, trend distance, and structural position relative to the Bitcoin power-law range.
The second layer is a long-term Bitcoin power-law framework built from three structural curves: Floor, Mid-Stair, and Fair Value. These curves are plotted directly from the power-law formula and are not altered by the forecasting engine.
The script is not a simple mashup of two unrelated tools. The power-law layer is used as structural context inside the forecaster itself: it contributes to analog selection, regime comparison, optional forecast anchoring, and optional probability adjustment. The goal is to make historical pattern matching more aware of where price is located inside Bitcoin’s broader long-term structure.
How the forecast works:
The script compares the latest pattern against historical BTC windows.
It keeps the best analogs according to the selected similarity method.
These analogs are separated into Bull, Central, and Bear groups using the final return at the selected forecast horizon.
For each step in the projection, each scenario path is built from the weighted average of its own analog group, so the paths remain internally coherent instead of mixing bullish and bearish trajectories.
An optional structural bias can softly pull projected prices toward the power-law range over time. This effect fades in progressively across the forecast horizon, so near-term projections are not abruptly distorted.
Scenario probabilities are derived from the same percentile thresholds used to build the Bull, Central, and Bear paths. This keeps the displayed percentages aligned with the projected paths shown on the chart.
The script is designed for daily Bitcoin charts and works best when enough historical data is available. It is a probabilistic context tool, not a prediction guarantee, and it should be used together with risk management and independent market analysis.
Suggested usage:
Use the power-law curves to identify long-term structural position.
Use the forecast paths to estimate how similar historical BTC conditions evolved.
Compare current price location, structural regime, and scenario probabilities before forming a directional bias.
Treat the output as a contextual model, not as a standalone trading signal. Indicator
Crypto: Macro Heatmap [invincible3]Crypto Macro Heatmap is an automatic market-regime dashboard designed to summarize crypto macro conditions using liquidity, leverage, breadth, and risk-participation metrics.
The indicator converts multiple market data sources into normalized 0–100 scores and displays them in a structured heatmap table. It is built to help traders quickly understand whether the broader crypto environment is risk-on, neutral, or risk-off.
Main dashboard sections:
1. Liquidity
Tracks Global M2, total crypto market cap, USDT dominance, and BTC volume confirmation. Higher liquidity scores generally suggest stronger macro support for crypto markets.
2. Leverage
Tracks open interest pressure, funding-risk proxy, liquidation-risk proxy, and OI acceleration. Higher leverage scores mean higher stress or crowding risk.
3. Breadth
Tracks TOTAL2, TOTAL3, BTC dominance, ETH dominance, and altcoin participation. This section helps identify whether market strength is broad or concentrated.
Key features:
* Fully automatic scoring
* No manual market-score inputs
* Dashboard show/hide checkbox
* Light/dark chart theme detection
* Composite regime score
* Regime meter
* Market phase detection
* Risk-state classification
* Confidence score
* Section delta versus 7 days ago
* Fixed-width heatmap layout for cleaner visual alignment
The composite score combines liquidity support, market breadth, and leverage-adjusted risk into one regime reading. The dashboard is intended for macro context and regime analysis, not direct buy or sell signals.
Use this tool as a higher-timeframe market filter together with your own technical analysis, risk management, and trading system.
Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not provide financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully.
Indicator
Indicator
CDC Action Zone+TrueMarket Mean (BTC Focus) By Beckte## Overview
This indicator is a macro-focused trend following and cyclical value tracking tool, specifically designed for Bitcoin (BTC) long-term investors. It combines the momentum logic of the well-known **CDC Action Zone** with a mathematical simulation of the On-Chain **Realized Price** model.
The main purpose of this script is to identify high-probability, macro-generational accumulation zones while filtering out early or false bottom signals during aggressive downtrends.
---
## Key Components
### 1. CDC Action Zone (Trend & Momentum)
Based on the classic EMA 12 and EMA 26 crossover logic, this component colors the candlesticks to reflect the market's current momentum:
- 🟢 **Bright Green:** Strong Bullish Momentum (Hold / Trend is up)
- 🔵 **Blue:** Early Bullish Sign / Potential Reversal (Watch closely or start accumulation)
- 🔴 **Bright Red:** Strong Bearish Momentum (Stay in cash / Wait)
- 🟠 **Orange:** Early Bearish Sign / Technical Rebound in Bear Market
### 2. Realized Price Proxy (The Cyclical Floor)
In on-chain analysis, the **Realized Price** represents the average cost basis of all aggregate Bitcoin supply moving on-network, without omitting lost or dormant coins.
Since native on-chain data requires external API subscriptions on PulseWire, this script utilizes a specialized long-term statistical proxy (**730-day SMA with custom logarithmic offsets**) to simulate this ultimate cyclical floor. Historically, major bear market bottoms (2015, 2018, 2022) have strictly formed near or slightly below this baseline.
---
## How it Works & Entry Strategy (The Anti-Doi Mechanism)
To avoid catching falling knives during a capitulation event, this script enforces a strict double-confirmation rule:
1. **Value Zone Check:** The current market price must correct down to within **10% of the Realized Price Proxy** (the light blue line). This ensures you are buying Bitcoin at an extreme discount relative to historical network value.
2. **Momentum Trigger:** Once inside the Value Zone, the script waits for the **CDC Action Zone to flip from Red/Orange to Blue or Green**.
When both conditions are met, a **"REALIZED BUY"** label will plot beneath the candlestick, signaling a safe, low-risk entry spot with a highly compressed downside.
---
## Disclaimer & Credits
- **Credits:** The trend-following logic is inspired by the legendary "CDC Action Zone" concept popularized by Piriya Sambandaraksa. The valuation floor is based on the Realized Price on-chain metric conceptualized by the crypto-asset research community.
- **Disclaimer:** This indicator is designed for high-timeframe spot accumulation (recommended: 1D or 4H charts). It is not a financial advisory tool or a guarantee of future profits. Past performance does not indicate future results. Always practice proper risk management. Indicator
Bitcoin Compressing Power Law ChannelBitcoin Compressing Power Law Channel
Most Bitcoin power-law channels draw bands of a fixed width around a long-term trendline. This one is different: the channel width is not constant. It starts wide and compresses exponentially as Bitcoin matures, modeling the idea that long-term volatility around the trend tends to shrink over time. That decaying width is the core idea of this indicator.
Why a compressing channel
A standard power-law channel assumes the spread between its upper and lower bounds stays the same across Bitcoin's entire history. In practice, an asset's relative volatility tends to fall as it grows larger and more liquid. This indicator captures that by letting the channel narrow over time toward a configurable floor, so the bounds reflect a maturing market rather than a permanently fixed range.
How it works
The model assumes log(price) scales linearly with log(days since the genesis block), producing a fair-value trendline: logFair = intercept + slope * log10(days). A lower bound is offset below that line, and the upper bound is placed above the lower bound at a distance set by the channel width.
The width itself is the original part: width = minWidth + startWidth * exp(-decaySpeed * yearsSinceGenesis). Early in Bitcoin's history the exponential term is large and the channel is wide. As years pass, that term shrinks toward zero and the width converges to a minimum floor (minWidth). The result is a channel whose envelope tightens over time instead of staying fixed.
What it plots
Three lines in price space (upper, middle, lower) with a shaded fill between the upper and lower bounds. Optionally, a 200 SMA of the current timeframe and a 200 SMA from the weekly timeframe, each toggleable. The weekly SMA is requested from a higher timeframe with lookahead disabled, so it does not repaint using future data. A normalized "Decay Channel Oscillator" is exposed in the Data Window, showing where the current close sits within the channel on a 0 to 1 scale (0 = lower bound, 1 = upper bound).
Inputs
Every model parameter is adjustable: the genesis date, the power-law intercept and slope, the lower offset, the initial and minimum channel widths, and the decay speed that controls how fast the channel compresses. Colors for each line, the fill, and both SMAs are configurable.
How to use it
Apply it to a Bitcoin chart on a longer timeframe such as Daily or Weekly, where a power-law model is most meaningful. The middle line is the model's central estimate; the upper and lower lines describe the expected long-term range, narrowing as time goes on. The Data Window oscillator lets you read how stretched price is within the channel numerically.
Parameters and calibration
The default intercept and slope are starting values that approximate Bitcoin's historical power-law fit. They are not fixed truths. You should re-evaluate them and adjust them, along with the offset, widths, and decay speed, to suit your own analysis and the data range you are studying. Different calibrations will move the channel and change how aggressively it compresses.
Limitations and cautions
This is a model, not a prediction. The power-law relationship is an empirical observation that may break down at any time, and the decay parameters are assumptions, not facts. The compressing width is a hypothesis about volatility maturing over time; it may not hold. This indicator is built for Bitcoin and is not intended for other assets. Nothing here forecasts future prices, and the past behavior of the channel does not guarantee anything about how price will behave going forward.
The code is open-source under the Mozilla Public License 2.0. You are welcome to study it and build on it. Indicator
Indicator
inan al sat pro v1.0Bu indikatör inan dağ tarafından hazırlanmıştır ve ücretsiz kullanabilirsiniz telefon numaram whatsaaptan yada telegramdan soru sorabilirsiniz mutlaka dönerim
trend yönünü,
destek/direnç bölgelerini,
olası giriş noktalarını,
riskli bölgeleri
göstermeye çalışıyor.
1) Yeşil Çizgi (Hareketli Ortalama / Trend Çizgisi)
Bu çizgi kısa vadeli trendi gösteriyor.
Fiyat yeşil çizginin üstündeyse:
kısa vadede bullish güç artar
long işlemler daha güvenli olur
Altındaysa:
bearish baskı vardır
short daha mantıklı olabilir
Şu an:
fiyat tekrar yeşil çizginin üstüne çıkmaya çalışıyor.
bu pozitif bir sinyal.
2) Turuncu / Kırmızı Kalın Çizgi
Bu büyük trend desteği gibi çalışıyor.
Bunu:
“ana savunma hattı”
gibi düşünebilirsin.
Fiyat bunun üstünde kaldıkça:
market tamamen çökmedi demektir.
Altına sert kırarsa:
satış baskısı artabilir.
3) Kırmızı Kutular
Bunlar:
SELL / RESISTANCE bölgeleri
Yani:
fiyat oralarda zorlanabilir,
satış yiyebilir.
Şunu yaparsın:
kırmızı kutunun içine girince dikkatli olursun,
long kovalamazsın,
breakout beklenir.
4) Yeşil Kutular
Bunlar:
BUY / SUPPORT bölgeleri
Yani:
alıcıların geldiği alanlar.
En mantıklı long girişleri genelde:
yeşil kutu yakınında,
destekten tepki alınca olur.
5) Mavi Noktalar
Bunlar:
dip dönüş sinyali
Yani:
satış zayıflıyor olabilir,
tepki yükselişi gelebilir.
Tek başına yeterli değil ama:
destekle birleşirse güçlü olur.
6) Turuncu Nokta
Bu:
tepe / satış baskısı
uyarısı gibi çalışıyor.
Genelde:
yükseliş yoruluyor olabilir demektir.
ŞU AN GRAFİKTE NE GÖRÜYORUM?
Şu an:
dipten tepki alınmış,
fiyat toparlanıyor,
küçük bullish yapı oluşuyor.
Ama:
hâlâ üstte kırmızı direnç bölgesi var.
Yani:
tam güçlü breakout henüz yok.
NEREDE LONG AÇARDIM?
Daha güvenli giriş:
yeşil kutu üstünde tutunursa
ve kırmızı kutuyu kırarsa
long düşünürdüm.
Yani mantık:
destekte tutun
direnç kır
breakout al
NEREDE LONG AÇMAZDIM?
Şuralarda dikkat:
uzun yeşil mumdan sonra
kırmızı kutunun tam altında
RSI aşırı şişmişken
Çünkü:
fake breakout olabilir.
STOP NEREYE KOYULUR?
En mantıklı yer:
yeşil kutunun biraz altı
Çünkü:
destek kırılırsa
senaryo bozulmuş olur.
Profesyoneller:
“işlem fikri bozulduğu yere”
stop koyar.
TP (Kâr Alma) Neresi?
İlk hedef:
bir sonraki kırmızı kutu
Çünkü:
market orada satış yiyebilir.
Basit Kullanım Mantığı
Long için:
✅ yeşil kutu
✅ trend üstü
✅ breakout
✅ hacim
Short için:
✅ kırmızı kutu reddi
✅ trend altı
✅ destek kırılımı
Bu indikatör inan dağ tarafından hazırlanmıştır ve ücretsiz kullanabilirsiniz telefon numaram whatsaaptan yada telegramdan soru sorabilirsiniz mutlaka dönerim
trend yönünü,
destek/direnç bölgelerini,
olası giriş noktalarını,
riskli bölgeleri
göstermeye çalışıyor.
1) Yeşil Çizgi (Hareketli Ortalama / Trend Çizgisi)
Bu çizgi kısa vadeli trendi gösteriyor.
Fiyat yeşil çizginin üstündeyse:
kısa vadede bullish güç artar
long işlemler daha güvenli olur
Altındaysa:
bearish baskı vardır
short daha mantıklı olabilir
Şu an:
fiyat tekrar yeşil çizginin üstüne çıkmaya çalışıyor.
bu pozitif bir sinyal.
2) Turuncu / Kırmızı Kalın Çizgi
Bu büyük trend desteği gibi çalışıyor.
Bunu:
“ana savunma hattı”
gibi düşünebilirsin.
Fiyat bunun üstünde kaldıkça:
market tamamen çökmedi demektir.
Altına sert kırarsa:
satış baskısı artabilir.
3) Kırmızı Kutular
Bunlar:
SELL / RESISTANCE bölgeleri
Yani:
fiyat oralarda zorlanabilir,
satış yiyebilir.
Şunu yaparsın:
kırmızı kutunun içine girince dikkatli olursun,
long kovalamazsın,
breakout beklenir.
4) Yeşil Kutular
Bunlar:
BUY / SUPPORT bölgeleri
Yani:
alıcıların geldiği alanlar.
En mantıklı long girişleri genelde:
yeşil kutu yakınında,
destekten tepki alınca olur.
5) Mavi Noktalar
Bunlar:
dip dönüş sinyali
Yani:
satış zayıflıyor olabilir,
tepki yükselişi gelebilir.
Tek başına yeterli değil ama:
destekle birleşirse güçlü olur.
6) Turuncu Nokta
Bu:
tepe / satış baskısı
uyarısı gibi çalışıyor.
Genelde:
yükseliş yoruluyor olabilir demektir.
ŞU AN GRAFİKTE NE GÖRÜYORUM?
Şu an:
dipten tepki alınmış,
fiyat toparlanıyor,
küçük bullish yapı oluşuyor.
Ama:
hâlâ üstte kırmızı direnç bölgesi var.
Yani:
tam güçlü breakout henüz yok.
NEREDE LONG AÇARDIM?
Daha güvenli giriş:
yeşil kutu üstünde tutunursa
ve kırmızı kutuyu kırarsa
long düşünürdüm.
Yani mantık:
destekte tutun
direnç kır
breakout al
NEREDE LONG AÇMAZDIM?
Şuralarda dikkat:
uzun yeşil mumdan sonra
kırmızı kutunun tam altında
RSI aşırı şişmişken
Çünkü:
fake breakout olabilir.
STOP NEREYE KOYULUR?
En mantıklı yer:
yeşil kutunun biraz altı
Çünkü:
destek kırılırsa
senaryo bozulmuş olur.
Profesyoneller:
“işlem fikri bozulduğu yere”
stop koyar.
TP (Kâr Alma) Neresi?
İlk hedef:
bir sonraki kırmızı kutu
Çünkü:
market orada satış yiyebilir.
Basit Kullanım Mantığı
Long için:
✅ yeşil kutu
✅ trend üstü
✅ breakout
✅ hacim
Short için:
✅ kırmızı kutu reddi
✅ trend altı
✅ destek kırılımı
Indicator
Bitcoin Logarithmic MACD Risk Metric (W, M)Description
The Bitcoin Logarithmic MACD Risk Metric (W, M) is a long-term macro analysis tool designed to identify generational buying and selling opportunities for Bitcoin. By applying logarithmic and linear regression models to the Logarithmic MACD (LMACD), this indicator normalizes price momentum relative to historical market cycle extremes.
Unlike standard MACD, the logarithmic version used here accounts for Bitcoin's exponential growth over time, allowing for a consistent comparison of momentum across different cycles.
IMPORTANT: Timeframe Compatibility
Note: This indicator is strictly designed for Weekly (W) and Monthly (M) timeframes. The regression lines won't show on other timeframes.
The regression lines (Log and Linear fits) were calculated using data points from these high-level timeframes because they contain less "noise" and are far more reliable for predicting global cyclical tops and bottoms.
It is highly recommended to wait for the candle close on the respective timeframe to confirm any signal, as mid-candle fluctuations can significantly alter the Risk Metric value.
How to Use It
The metric provides a "Risk" score between 0 and 1, visualizing where Bitcoin sits within its historical growth channel.
Sell Zone (Red): When the LMACD line enters the red zone, it indicates that Bitcoin is overbought and potentially nearing a cyclical peak.
Buy Zone (Green): When the LMACD drops into the green zone, it suggests the asset is oversold and approaching a cyclical bottom.
Confluence: While these zones have historically marked major reversals, this indicator should not be used in isolation. Always seek confluence with other technical or fundamental indicators.
Customizable Settings
Line Fits: You can choose between "Log Fit" and "Linear Fit" for both Top and Bottom lines to see which model best aligns with your current analysis.
View Mode: Switch between Fit Lines (seeing the MACD inside the channel) or Normalized (viewing the risk as a 0-1 oscillator).
Risk Levels: Adjust the thresholds for the Buy and Sell zones to fit your risk tolerance.
Price Overlay: Toggle the candle coloring on the main chart to see risk levels directly on the price action.
VIsualization Tip
If the price overlay makes the chart look too cluttered, you can hide the Bitcoin price bars in the main chart settings to focus purely on the colored risk overlay. Alternatively, you can disable the "Plot on Main Pane" option in the indicator settings if you only want to see the metric in its own separate pane below.
Limitations
Asset Focus: This indicator is specifically calibrated for Bitcoin. While you can apply it to other charts, the indicator pane will always display Bitcoin's MACD risk, whereas the price overlay will color the candles of the currently selected instrument.
Fixed Parameters: The LMACD settings (12, 26, Close) are hardcoded. This is intentional, as the regression fitting was performed specifically using these values; changing them would make the historical bands irrelevant.
Hardcoded Coefficients: The regression lines are based on historical tops and bottoms up to 2023. Future market cycles may require new approximations if Bitcoin's volatility profile shifts significantly.
Regression Specifics: The Linear Fit model treats the early 2011 peaks/bottoms as outliers. On the Monthly timeframe, the bottom line is available only as a linear fit due to the limited number of historical macro data points. The upper linear boundary is guaranteed to be broken by future price action, but it can serve as a "conservative" macro target in the meantime.
No Guarantees: Past performance does not guarantee future results. There is no certainty that the metric will reach the boundaries in every cycle or remain within them indefinitely.
Indicator
Crypto Dominance Rotation Map [AGPro Series]Crypto Dominance Rotation Map
🧠 Core Idea
Is crypto capital rotating toward Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, or defensive stablecoin exposure?
📌 Overview / What it does
Crypto Dominance Rotation Map is a crypto market regime tool built to read capital rotation through Bitcoin dominance, Ethereum dominance, broad altcoin participation, and stablecoin defensive pressure.
The script produces a four-lane rotation map, a 0-100 Risk Participation Score, curated regime labels, right-side lane tags, alert conditions, and an AG Pro panel that summarizes the active crypto capital-flow state.
It does not predict price direction, automate trades, or claim that dominance rotation will always lead to a specific outcome. It is designed as a structured market context and visualization tool.
🎯 Purpose & Design Philosophy
This script was built to fill the gap between single-symbol price indicators and broader crypto market context.
Many crypto traders watch BTC dominance, ETH dominance, altcoin market capitalization, and stablecoin dominance separately. This script brings those references into one readable rotation map so the trader can understand the current capital-flow environment faster.
The mindset is context-first: identify where attention and capital may be concentrating before interpreting individual chart setups.
⚡ Why This Script Is Different
Most tools focus on the active chart symbol or on a basket of crypto assets.
This script does NOT try to call buys or sells on one coin.
Instead, it maps dominance rotation across Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, and stablecoin defense so the trader can read the broader crypto regime behind the chart.
⚙️ Methodology
1. Dominance Mapping
The script reads Bitcoin dominance, Ethereum dominance, altcoin market-cap participation, and stablecoin dominance.
2. Rotation Scoring
Each reference is converted into a normalized 0-100 lane score using configurable momentum and smoothing.
3. Regime Classification
The model classifies the active state as BTC Lead, ETH Lead, Alt Risk-On, Defensive, Rotation Watch, or Neutral.
4. Visual Output
The script plots four rotation lanes, a Risk Participation Score, event labels, right-side tags, and a compact panel.
🗺️ How to Read the Chart
BTC Lane shows whether Bitcoin dominance is gaining leadership.
ETH Lane shows whether Ethereum dominance is improving versus the broader crypto market.
Altcoin Lane shows whether broad non-Bitcoin participation is improving.
Stable Lane shows whether stablecoin dominance is rising, which may reflect defensive positioning.
The Risk Participation Score summarizes whether crypto rotation is constructive, defensive, or undecided.
🚦 Signals & States
• BTC LEAD → Bitcoin dominance is the active leadership lane.
• ETH LEAD → Ethereum dominance is leading rotation.
• ALT RISK-ON → altcoin participation is constructive and broad risk appetite is stronger.
• DEFENSIVE → stablecoin dominance pressure is elevated.
• ROTATION WATCH → no clean leader yet, but participation is improving.
• NEUTRAL → no strong capital-flow leader is confirmed.
🔔 Alerts Logic
Alerts trigger when the active rotation state changes into a major regime.
Available alert states:
• BTC Dominance Leadership
• ETH Dominance Leadership
• Altcoin Risk-On Rotation
• Defensive Stablecoin Rotation
Alerts are attention markers only. They are not trade instructions.
🧩 Confluence Logic
Context becomes stronger when the active rotation state aligns with the trader’s chart setup.
For example, an altcoin breakout may carry stronger context when the map shows Alt Risk-On. A defensive state may encourage more caution around aggressive long setups.
📊 When to Use
• Crypto market regime review
• Altcoin season / Bitcoin dominance monitoring
• Risk-on and risk-off context checks
• Higher-timeframe crypto market preparation
• Comparing individual setups with broader market rotation
⚠️ When NOT to Use
• Very low-liquidity crypto assets
• Symbols that do not respond to broader crypto conditions
• Extremely short-term scalping where dominance data is too slow
• Periods where dominance symbols are unavailable or delayed
🎛️ Key Inputs
• BTC Dominance Symbol → Bitcoin dominance reference.
• ETH Dominance Symbol → Ethereum dominance reference.
• Altcoin Market Cap Symbol → broad altcoin participation proxy.
• Stablecoin Dominance Symbol → defensive crypto positioning proxy.
• Rotation Momentum Length → how far back rotation pressure is measured.
• Rotation Smoothing → how smooth or reactive the lane map becomes.
• Risk-On / Defensive Thresholds → state classification sensitivity.
🖥️ Interface & Visual Design
The interface is designed around a four-lane map. Each lane has a clear role: BTC, ETH, ALT, and STABLE.
Event labels highlight regime changes without turning the chart into a signal board.
The panel summarizes state, risk score, lane values, dominance readings, next context, and timeframe.
🧪 Practical Usage Workflow
1. Read the panel state.
2. Check which lane is leading.
3. Compare the Risk Participation Score with the active chart idea.
4. Use labels and alerts as context markers.
5. Confirm with price structure, volume, and your own risk plan.
🔍 Interpretation Guidelines
The script should be interpreted as market context.
BTC leadership may indicate capital concentration in Bitcoin. Alt Risk-On may suggest broader participation. Defensive stablecoin rotation may indicate caution.
No state is automatically bullish or bearish for every asset.
🚫 What This Script Is NOT
This script is not a prediction engine.
It is not financial advice.
It is not an auto-trading system.
It does not provide guaranteed signals.
⚠️ Limitations & Transparency
Dominance symbols may update differently from exchange-traded instruments.
Timeframe selection can materially change the rotation read.
Crypto market conditions can shift quickly during volatility events.
The script depends on the availability and quality of the selected reference symbols.
🧠 Market Context Notes
Dominance rotation is often more useful as a background regime filter than as a direct entry signal.
The strongest use case is comparing an individual crypto setup against the broader flow of capital across Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, and defensive stable exposure.
🧾 Use Case Examples
When an altcoin setup appears while the map shows Alt Risk-On, the broader participation context may be more supportive.
When Bitcoin dominance leads while altcoin participation weakens, altcoin setups may require more selectivity.
When stablecoin dominance becomes defensive, aggressive risk-on interpretations should be handled more carefully.
🔐 Non-Promise Statement
No script can provide certainty.
This tool provides structured context, not guaranteed outcomes.
📉 Risk Disclosure
Trading involves risk.
Users remain responsible for their own decisions.
This script does not provide financial advice.
📚 Educational Note
Use this script to study how crypto capital rotation changes across market regimes and how that context interacts with individual chart setups.
Indicator
Bitcoin RSI Channel (2W, M)Bitcoin RSI Channel (2W, M)
The Bitcoin RSI Channel is a macro-analytical tool designed to identify long-term cyclical tops and bottoms of Bitcoin by applying linear regression modeling to the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Traditionally, RSI levels like 70 and 30 are used as static markers for overbought and oversold conditions. However, as Bitcoin matures and its volatility dampens, its cyclical RSI peaks and troughs have historically followed a descending trajectory. This script accounts for that "fading" volatility by using mathematically fitted trendlines that track the actual historical extremes of Bitcoin’s momentum.
Main Objectives
Curve Fitting: Plots mathematically modeled linear regression lines through historical RSI peaks and bottoms, ensuring the channel remains as close as possible to the actual turning points of previous cycles.
Normalized View: Provides an optional "Normalized" mode where the dynamic channel is flattened into a 0-1 "Risk Metric" for easier comparison between cycles.
Main Chart Visualization: Directly projects overbought and oversold zones onto the price chart via plot coloring, allowing for a seamless confluence of price action and momentum analysis.
Cycle Forecasting: Designed as a high-timeframe tool to assist in predicting global market tops and generational buying opportunities.
IMPORTANT: Timeframe & Methodology
Please note that the regression lines in this script are specifically modeled for the 2-Week (2W) and Monthly (1M) timeframes.
These high timeframes were chosen because they significantly reduce market noise, making them superior for identifying global cycle shifts. The coefficients used in the code were derived from an approximation (fitting) of data points from 2011 through 2023.
Recommendation: Always wait for the candle to close on the 2W or Monthly timeframe to confirm a signal. Intra-candle fluctuations can be volatile and may provide premature signals before the period is finalized.
How to Use
Identifying Extremes: When the RSI enters the green "Buy Zone" or the red "Sell Zone," it historically indicates that Bitcoin has reached extreme oversold or overbought levels. These periods suggest the proximity of a potential cyclical bottom or top.
Visualizing on Price: These macro shifts are intuitively reflected through the price overlay on the main chart, providing immediate visual feedback on the current stage of the market cycle.
Strategic Caution: These zones have not been infallible in the past, and this indicator should not be used in isolation. Always seek confluence with other technical or fundamental analysis before making trading decisions.
User Tips
Clean View: You can hide the Bitcoin price bars on your main chart (via the Chart Settings) to focus entirely on the risk-based coloring provided by the indicator overlay.
Overlay Toggle: If you prefer to keep the indicator purely in its own pane, you can disable the "Plot on Main Pane" option in the script settings.
Settings & Parameters
View Mode: Switch between "Fit Lines" (standard RSI inside a diagonal channel) and "Normalized" (RSI converted into a Risk Metric).
Sell/Buy Zone Levels: Adjustable thresholds (default 0.90 and 0.10) to define your personal risk appetite for overbought and oversold conditions.
Plot on Main Pane: Toggle to enable/disable price bar colorization based on the current Risk Metric.
Limitations & Disclaimer
BTC Specificity: This indicator is purpose-built for Bitcoin. While you can load it on other symbols, the indicator pane will always calculate based on INDEX:BTCUSD data to maintain its cyclical logic. The main chart overlay, however, will color the plot of whatever instrument you are currently viewing.
Fixed RSI Optimization: The regression model is strictly optimized using the default RSI settings (14-period, Source: Close). The linear regression lines were fitted specifically to these values; therefore, the ability to modify the RSI length or source has been intentionally omitted from the settings. Changing these parameters would render the channel irrelevant, as the trendlines would no longer align with historical market extremes.
Static Modeling: The regression coefficients are "hardcoded" based on historical peaks and troughs up to 2023. As the market evolves, future cycles may require new approximations to account for shifting volatility.
No Guarantees: Mathematical models describe the past but do not guarantee the future. There is no guarantee that Bitcoin will reach the upper or lower boundaries in any given cycle, or that it will stay within them. Use this tool as one part of a comprehensive trading strategy.
Indicator
Indicator
BTC Valuation Cycle [Alpha Extract]A sophisticated multi-metric Bitcoin valuation framework that synthesizes on-chain analytics including SOPR, MVRV, Price-to-Realized, and Mayer Multiple into a unified 0-100 cycle oscillator with six-tier zone classification for market cycle identification. Utilizing logistic transformation with configurable weighting and z-score normalization, this indicator delivers institutional-grade Bitcoin-specific valuation assessment with pivot-based extreme detection and comprehensive alert system. The system's weighted composite architecture combined with adaptive curve intensity enables precise calibration of cycle sensitivity while maintaining statistical validity across Bitcoin's multi-year market cycles.
🔶 Advanced Multi-Metric Synthesis Engine
Implements sophisticated composite calculation combining four distinct Bitcoin valuation metrics with configurable weighting and normalization framework. The system retrieves SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), Price-to-Realized ratio, and Mayer Multiple from on-chain sources, applies z-score normalization to each metric over configurable periods, transforms via logistic function for 0-100 scaling, and generates weighted average creating unified cycle score.
// Component Score Calculation
SOPR_Centered = SOPR - 1.0
SOPR_Z = z_score(SOPR_Centered, Normalization_Length)
SOPR_Score = logistic_100(SOPR_Z, Curve_Intensity)
Price_to_Realized_Z = z_score(Price / Realized_Price, Normalization_Length)
PR_Score = logistic_100(Price_to_Realized_Z, Curve_Intensity)
MVRV_Z = z_score(Market_Cap / Realized_Cap, Normalization_Length)
MVRV_Score = logistic_100(MVRV_Z, Curve_Intensity)
Mayer_Z = z_score(Mayer_Multiple, Normalization_Length)
Mayer_Score = logistic_100(Mayer_Z, Curve_Intensity)
// Weighted Composite
Cycle = (SOPR_Score × W_SOPR + PR_Score × W_PR + MVRV_Score × W_MVRV + Mayer_Score × W_Mayer) / (W_SOPR + W_PR + W_MVRV + W_Mayer)
🔶 Understanding Bitcoin Valuation Metrics
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the degree of profit for coins moved on-chain, calculated as value sold divided by value paid. Values above 1.0 indicate profitable selling (distribution), below 1.0 indicate loss-taking (capitulation). The system centers SOPR around 1.0 for normalization.
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) compares current market cap to realized cap (aggregate cost basis). High MVRV signals overvaluation as price exceeds average acquisition cost; low
MVRV suggests undervaluation. The system offers Ratio mode (raw MVRV), Z-Score mode (statistical deviation), or Blend mode (average of both).
Price-to-Realized Ratio directly compares current BTC price to realized price (realized cap divided by circulating supply), providing cleaner valuation signal than MVRV by removing market cap distortions.
Mayer Multiple measures price relative to 200-day moving average. Values above 2.4 historically mark tops; values near or below 1.0 mark bottoms. The system normalizes this classic technical indicator alongside on-chain metrics.
🔶 Logistic Transformation Framework
Features sophisticated logistic function application converting unbounded z-scores into bounded 0-100 range with configurable curve intensity controlling sensitivity. The system applies formula: 100 / (1 + exp(-z × k)) where z is z-score and k is curve intensity (default 0.90), creates S-curve transformation preserving relative relationships while preventing extreme outliers, and enables smooth gradient visualization across entire cycle range.
🔶 Six-Tier Cycle Zone Classification
Implements comprehensive market cycle framework dividing 0-100 range into six distinct zones with configurable thresholds representing Bitcoin's characteristic bubble and bust patterns. The system defines Bottom Extreme (default <10, accumulation zone), Cold Zone (10-25, early recovery), Lower Mid (25-40, neutral to bullish), Upper Mid (40-60, bullish), Hot Zone (60-75, late bull market), and Top Extreme (>75, euphoria/distribution) with dynamic color coding.
🔶 Pivot-Based Extreme Detection System
Provides intelligent local extreme identification using pivot high/low detection with zone threshold filtering and visual capsule markers. The system detects pivot highs above Hot Zone threshold and pivot lows below Cold Zone threshold using configurable left/right bars, creates horizontal capsule visualizations at exact extreme values with color-coded centers (red for tops, cyan for bottoms), and maintains rolling array limited to maximum capsule count for clean chart presentation.
🔶 MVRV Calculation Mode Selection
Offers three distinct MVRV calculation approaches optimizing for different market conditions and analytical preferences. Ratio mode uses raw Market Cap / Realized Cap for direct valuation comparison, Z-Score mode applies statistical normalization emphasizing deviations from historical mean, and Blend mode (default) averages both approaches balancing absolute valuation with statistical context for robust signal generation.
🔶 Configurable Metric Weighting System
Features flexible weight allocation enabling traders to emphasize preferred metrics or disable unreliable components during specific market regimes. The system accepts 0.0-N weight values for each metric (default 1.0 all equal), automatically handles missing data by excluding NA metrics from composite, recalculates weighted average dynamically, and enables custom cycle calibration based on trader's confidence in different on-chain signals.
🔶 Confirmed HTF Data Integration
Implements rigorous anti-repaint methodology using confirmed higher-timeframe values with offset preventing live bar distortion. The system retrieves all on-chain metrics from daily timeframe with 1-bar offset ensuring only completed daily candle data influences cycle score, applies identical offset to Mayer Multiple calculation, and maintains signal stability across real-time updates preventing false extreme alerts.
🔶 Comprehensive Alert Framework
Provides five distinct alert conditions covering critical cycle events and threshold breaches with descriptive messages. The system triggers Top Extreme alert on crossover above top threshold (default 90), Bottom Extreme alert on crossunder below bottom threshold (default 10), Hot Rejection alert when cycle falls from Hot Zone, Cold Reclaim alert when cycle rises from Cold Zone, and Mayer Threshold breach alert for traditional technical confirmation.
🔶 Gradient Zone Visualization Architecture
Creates intuitive color-coded area plot with six distinct color zones reflecting current cycle position through visual spectrum from cyan (extreme bottom) through purple/orange to red (extreme top). The system applies dynamic zone coloring to both area fill and cycle value display, implements configurable area transparency (default opaque), and maintains consistent color scheme across oscillator pane, table values, and capsule markers.
🔶 Real-Time Diagnostics System
Features comprehensive data availability monitoring with missing metric labels and detailed value table showing all component metrics. The system detects NA values in SOPR, Realized Price, MVRV, or Mayer Multiple, displays warning label listing unavailable metrics, and provides table overlay showing current values for Cycle score, all four components, MVRV-Z, Mayer MA, and threshold with color-coded formatting.
🔶 Performance Optimization Framework
Employs efficient calculation methods with null-safe division functions, optimized array management for capsule storage, and conditional plotting minimizing unnecessary rendering. The system includes streamlined weighted average calculation skipping NA metrics, smart capsule cleanup maintaining maximum limit through oldest-first deletion, and minimal recalculation overhead through var declarations and confirmed bar logic.
This indicator delivers sophisticated Bitcoin-specific valuation analysis through multi-metric on-chain synthesis unavailable in traditional technical indicators. By combining SOPR (profit/loss behavior), MVRV (cost basis valuation), Price-to-Realized (pure valuation), and Mayer Multiple (technical context) into unified cycle framework with statistical normalization, it provides comprehensive market cycle assessment grounded in blockchain fundamentals. The six-tier zone system maps directly to Bitcoin's characteristic 4-year halving cycles with Bottom Extreme zones historically marking generational buying opportunities and Top Extreme zones marking distribution phases. Perfect for long-term Bitcoin investors seeking data-driven cycle timing, position sizing based on valuation extremes (increase allocation in Cold/Bottom zones, reduce in Hot/Top zones), and objective framework for navigating Bitcoin's volatile multi-year cycles with alerts providing advance warning of major cycle transitions requiring portfolio reassessment. Indicator
BTC Potential EnergyBTC Potential Energy is a macro-cycle oscillator that tracks how much "dry powder" is sitting in Tether (USDT) relative to its structural baseline — and translates that into a 0–100 potential energy score for Bitcoin. The core idea is simple: when investors are parking abnormal amounts of capital in stablecoins, that capital isn't gone — it's coiled. The higher the stablecoin accumulation above its own historical trend, the greater the potential for a violent rotation back into Bitcoin when sentiment shifts.
The indicator displays as a sub-pane oscillator beneath your BTC chart and is designed primarily for use on the Weekly or Daily timeframe , where macro cycle analysis is most meaningful.
The Concept: Stablecoins as a Coiled Spring
In crypto markets, Tether Dominance (USDT.D) is the percentage of total crypto market cap held in USDT. It rises when investors flee risk — selling Bitcoin and altcoins into stablecoins — and falls when investors deploy that capital back into the market.
This creates a physics-like analogy:
Compression phase — USDT.D rises as capital moves to safety. Like compressing a spring, potential energy builds.
Release phase — USDT.D begins to fall. The spring releases. Capital rotates into BTC, historically preceding or coinciding with the early stages of bull runs.
The further above normal USDT.D is, and the more abruptly it starts declining, the more powerful that rotation tends to be.
The Problem With Naive USDT.D Analysis
The most obvious approach — ranking the raw USDT.D value over history — fails in practice. Why? Because the stablecoin market has grown enormously since 2017. USDT.D in 2021 was structurally higher in absolute percentage terms than in 2018, simply because more stablecoins exist and are used as a base layer across DeFi and centralised exchanges. This secular uptrend means that if you rank raw USDT.D, the indicator reads "high energy" throughout the 2021 bull market — precisely when energy was already deployed and Bitcoin was already running. That is the opposite of useful.
The Solution: Detrended Potential Energy
BTC Potential Energy solves this by ranking the deviation of USDT.D from its own long-term moving average , not the raw level itself. This strips out the structural growth of the stablecoin market and isolates only the anomalous accumulation — the excess fear-driven or cycle-driven flight to safety that goes beyond what the baseline trend would predict.
Step 1 — Establish the Baseline
A long Simple Moving Average (default: 100 bars) is computed on USDT.D. On the weekly chart, this represents approximately 2 years — roughly one full Bitcoin market cycle. This MA acts as the "expected" or structural level of stablecoin dominance for any given period. It rises gradually over time as the stablecoin ecosystem matures, automatically adjusting the baseline to the era.
Step 2 — Compute the Deviation
The deviation is calculated as:
Deviation = USDT.D − Baseline MA
A positive deviation means USDT.D is elevated above its own trend — investors are accumulating stablecoins beyond what the baseline predicts. This is abnormal stablecoin hoarding, and it represents genuine potential energy.
A negative deviation means USDT.D is below trend — capital has already been deployed into risk assets. Energy has been discharged.
Step 3 — Percentile Rank the Deviation
The current deviation is ranked as a percentile against all deviation values in a rolling lookback window (default: 200 bars). This produces the final Potential Energy score on a 0–100 scale:
100 = The current stablecoin accumulation anomaly is the most extreme it has been in the entire lookback window. Maximum coiled energy.
50 = Deviation is average. Neutral state.
0 = USDT.D is at its most suppressed relative to trend. Capital is fully deployed. Energy is discharged.
This approach is robust across all market eras and does not require re-calibration as the stablecoin ecosystem grows.
The Four Energy States
The indicator identifies one of four states on every bar, displayed in the live info table and used to determine histogram colour.
ACCUMULATING (Blue)
PE is below 40. USDT.D is near or below its structural baseline. Capital is deployed or neutral. The market is in an active risk-on phase or the bear market has not yet produced meaningful stablecoin accumulation. No elevated potential energy.
BUILDING (Amber)
PE is between 40 and the Charge Threshold, and is rising. Stablecoin accumulation is growing above the baseline. Investors are beginning to retreat from risk. Potential energy is loading. Worth monitoring but not yet at an actionable level.
CHARGED (Orange/Red)
PE is above the Charge Threshold (default: 65). USDT.D is historically elevated relative to its own trend. A significant amount of capital is sitting in stablecoins beyond what the baseline predicts. The spring is fully coiled. Bitcoin's potential energy is at its most loaded.
RELEASING (Green)
PE is above the Charge Threshold AND USDT.D deviation has been declining for N consecutive bars (default: 3). This is the critical state — energy that was compressed is now actively unwinding. Capital is rotating out of stablecoins. Historically, this condition — high stablecoin accumulation followed by a structural reversal — has preceded or coincided with meaningful Bitcoin bull moves.
Release Signal Logic
The release signal is intentionally conservative. Two conditions must be met simultaneously:
1. Armed: The Potential Energy score must be at or above the Charge Threshold. The spring must actually be compressed before a "release" means anything. A declining USDT.D from a low base is not a release — it's just noise.
2. Declining: USDT.D deviation must have been falling for at least N consecutive bars (configurable). This filters out single-bar blips and requires a structural turn, not just a one-week dip.
When both conditions are met, the histogram turns green for the duration of the release phase, and an alert can be triggered on the first bar the signal fires.
Visual Guide
Histogram colour
Deep Blue → Sky Blue: Low energy (PE 0–50), capital deployed
Gold: Moderate energy (PE 50–threshold), building phase
Amber/Orange: High energy (PE above threshold), fully charged
Green: Release phase active — deviation unwinding from a high base
Background glow: Subtly tints the pane background to reflect the current energy state — deep blue at low energy, warming to amber and orange as energy builds.
Dashed orange line: The Charge Threshold. PE crossing above this line arms the release detector.
Dotted grey line: The 50 midpoint. PE above 50 means the deviation is in the upper half of its historical range.
Fast MA (blue) / Slow MA (pink): Moving averages of the USDT.D deviation, projected into the 0–100 PE space. When fast crosses above slow, deviation is accelerating upward — energy building faster. When fast crosses below slow from above the threshold, it can precede a release signal.
Info Table (top right):
Energy Level — Current PE score out of 100
USDT.D — Raw live Tether Dominance reading
Baseline — The long MA value, the structural floor
Deviation — How many percentage points USDT.D is above or below baseline (+ is elevated, − is deployed)
State — Current energy state in plain text
Trend MA — The baseline length setting in use
Settings Reference
Percentile Lookback (default: 200)
The rolling window used to rank the current deviation. Longer lookbacks give more historical context but are slower to respond to structural shifts. 200 bars on the weekly is approximately 4 years — long enough to capture a full bull/bear cycle.
Trend Baseline MA (default: 100)
The most important parameter. This defines the structural floor. On the weekly chart, 100 bars is roughly 2 years — approximately one Bitcoin market cycle. Shorter values (e.g. 52 bars = 1 year) make the baseline more responsive, which can be useful on the daily chart. Longer values (130–150 bars) create a smoother, slower-moving baseline that irons out mid-cycle noise.
Signal Smoothing (default: 3)
EMA applied to raw USDT.D before any calculations. Reduces candle-to-candle noise in the source data. Higher values produce a cleaner but more lagged signal.
Charge Threshold (default: 65)
The PE level that must be reached before the release detector is armed. Raising this to 70–80 produces fewer, higher-conviction signals. Lowering it to 55–60 will trigger signals more frequently but with potentially lower reliability.
Consecutive Bars Declining (default: 3)
The number of consecutive bars that the deviation must be falling before a release is confirmed. Increasing this requires a more sustained reversal and reduces false positives. On the weekly chart, 3 bars is already meaningful — that is 3 weeks of sustained stablecoin outflows.
Fast MA / Slow MA Length (defaults: 14 / 50)
Moving averages of the deviation plotted in PE space. The crossover of fast above slow while PE is below threshold is worth watching as early warning of building energy. A crossover of fast below slow from above the threshold can precede a release signal.
Recommended Usage
Timeframe: Weekly or Daily. This is a macro cycle indicator. Do not use it to time intraday entries — it is not designed for that.
Combine with price structure: The release signal is most powerful when it aligns with Bitcoin reclaiming a key level, a breakout of a multi-month range, or a bullish divergence on a momentum indicator. The Potential Energy score tells you the setup is primed — price action confirmation tells you it is firing.
Watch the Deviation column: The live table shows the raw deviation in percentage points. A deviation of +1.5% means USDT.D is 1.5 percentage points above its 2-year average — that is a meaningful anomaly. Watching this number decline from a peak as the state transitions from CHARGED to RELEASING gives an intuitive real-time read of the rotation.
Baseline MA tuning: On the weekly chart, start with the default 100. On the daily chart, consider reducing the Trend Baseline MA to around 52 bars to keep the baseline responsive to faster-moving daily USDT.D data.
Alerts
Three alert conditions are available:
BTC PE — Energy Release: Fires on the first bar the release condition is met. The most actionable alert. USDT.D deviation is actively unwinding from an elevated zone.
BTC PE — Fully Charged: Fires when PE crosses above the Charge Threshold from below. Signals that potential energy has entered the high zone.
BTC PE — Energy Exiting High Zone: Fires when PE crosses below the Charge Threshold from above. Useful as a heads-up that the setup may be resolving.
Notes
This indicator uses request.security("CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D") to pull Tether Dominance data sourced from CoinMarketCap's crypto market cap feed via PulseWire.
This indicator is a research and analysis tool. It does not constitute financial advice. Past correlations between Tether Dominance behaviour and Bitcoin price movements do not guarantee future results. Always combine macro oscillator readings with your own price analysis, risk management framework, and market context. Indicator
Bitcoin 1-Year Running ROI Risk MetricOverview
The Bitcoin 1-Year Running ROI Risk Metric is a macro-analysis oscillator designed to evaluate the current stage of Bitcoin's market cycle. By analyzing the 1-year rolling Return on Investment (ROI) and applying regression models to historical peaks and troughs, it translates raw market data into a normalized Risk score ranging from 0 to 1.
How it Works
Historically, due to the law of diminishing returns, Bitcoin's cycle peaks yield a progressively lower ROI each macro cycle. This indicator accounts for this phenomenon by fitting bounding regression curves to historical cycle extremes.
The script calculates the natural logarithm of the 1-year ROI. It then normalizes this value between a fitted bottom line (representing historical bear market bottoms) and a fitted top line (representing historical bull market peaks).
A Risk value near 0 (or inside the Buy Zone) indicates historical bear market lows, representing minimal macro risk and potential accumulation zones.
A Risk value near 1 (or inside the Sell Zone) suggests the market is approaching the historical limits of diminishing returns, indicating maximum macro risk and potential cycle tops.
Settings & Customization
Users can customize the indicator's behavior and visuals through the settings menu:
Top Line: Select the mathematical model used for the upper boundary of the market cycle. Choose between a Log Fit (logarithmic regression, which best captures all historical tops) or a Linear Fit (a more conservative straight line that excludes the 2011 peak).
View: Switch between the Normalized mode (displays the Risk metric as a clean 0 to 1 oscillator) and the Fit Lines mode (displays the raw logarithmic ROI values along with the upper, middle, and lower regression bands).
Sell / Buy Zone Levels: Adjust the thresholds that define the extreme risk areas. By default, the Sell Zone starts at 0.90 and the Buy Zone at 0.10. These values dictate when the oscillator and the main chart price line change colors.
Plot on the Main Pane: A simple toggle to turn the colored price line overlay on your main chart on or off.
💡 Visualization Tip
The script projects a colored price line directly onto your main chart (Green for Buy Zone, Red for Sell Zone).
To see this colored indicator line clearly without visual clutter, you can hide the standard Bitcoin price candles using the chart's object tree or settings.
Conversely, if you prefer a clean main chart and only want to view the risk oscillator in the lower pane, simply uncheck the "Plot on the Main Pane" option in the indicator's settings.
Limitations & Disclaimers
Please keep the following points in mind when using this tool:
Asset Specific: This indicator is strictly designed for Bitcoin. It internally fetches data using the INDEX:BTCUSD ticker. While you can load it on any other asset's chart, the oscillator in the lower pane will always display Bitcoin's data.
Timeframe Dependency: Although the indicator will calculate on any timeframe, it is highly recommended to use the Weekly (1W) chart. The regression curve fitting was performed using weekly closes. On other timeframes, the regression boundaries may not align perfectly with the exact global tops and bottoms.
Hardcoded Coefficients: The curve fitting was calculated based on Bitcoin's global tops and bottoms up to the year 2023. The resulting mathematical coefficients are hardcoded into the script. Future macro cycles may require a new approximation and an update to these coefficients.
Linear Fit Outlier: If you select the "Linear Fit" option for the Top Line in the settings, note that this model intentionally ignores the 2011 global top, treating it as a statistical outlier. This linear boundary is guaranteed to be broken by future price action, but it can serve as a "conservative" macro target in the meantime.
No Guarantees: There is no guarantee that Bitcoin's price or ROI will reach the upper or lower boundaries in the future, nor is it guaranteed to remain within them. This indicator is for educational and macro-analysis purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Indicator
Indicator
AG Pro Correlation Breakdown Map [AGPro Series]AG Pro Correlation Breakdown Map
Overview / What it does
AG Pro Correlation Breakdown Map is an overlay indicator designed to monitor whether a chart symbol is maintaining, weakening, breaking, or repairing its relationship with a benchmark symbol.
The default benchmark in this version is Bitcoin via BINANCE:BTCUSDT, which makes the tool especially useful for crypto traders who want to understand whether an altcoin is still moving in line with BTC or beginning to decouple from it.
This script does not attempt to answer whether correlation is simply high or low in isolation. Its purpose is more specific: it first checks whether a meaningful benchmark relationship existed, then evaluates whether that relationship is starting to deteriorate, whether the deterioration is becoming a confirmed breakdown, and whether the relationship is later stabilizing again.
The result is a regime-style map that helps users read benchmark dependency through distinct states such as coupled, strained, breaking, broken, repairing, and recoupled. This makes the script useful for contextual analysis, benchmark-relative behavior studies, and chart review workflows where users want more than a single rolling-correlation number.
Unique Edge
The main difference of this script is that it is not a generic correlation line, not a spread-trading engine, and not a simple benchmark overlay.
Its focus is the structure of relationship failure.
Instead of only plotting short-term correlation, the script combines four layers:
1. prior relationship validation,
2. short-vs-long correlation deterioration,
3. independent price behavior,
4. persistence and repair logic.
That combination is what separates a temporary wobble from a more meaningful benchmark breakdown event.
This also makes the script distinct from tools that measure correlation pressure or synchronized stress. Correlation Breakdown Map is built around the question: “A relationship existed before, but is it now failing, and if so, how cleanly?”
Methodology
The script starts by selecting a benchmark series and transforming price data into returns. Users can choose between log returns and percent returns.
A short correlation window and a long correlation window are then calculated between the chart symbol and the benchmark. The long window is used to judge whether a stable benchmark relationship has existed, while the short window is used to detect more recent deterioration.
The model then evaluates the gap between long and short correlation, along with short-correlation slope behavior. A benchmark relationship is considered more vulnerable when the short window weakens materially relative to the long window and the short-correlation slope also softens.
To avoid treating every statistical wobble as a true event, the script also checks for independent price behavior. This layer measures whether the chart symbol is beginning to move in a way that is meaningfully different from the benchmark over a configurable lookback period.
Finally, persistence and repair conditions are applied. This allows the script to separate brief instability from a more durable breakdown state, and later identify whether the relationship is beginning to normalize again.
Signals & Alerts / States
This script is primarily a state-mapping tool rather than a directional buy/sell engine.
The core states are:
Coupled
The chart symbol remains meaningfully aligned with the benchmark relationship structure.
Strained
The prior relationship still exists, but weakness is starting to appear.
Breaking
The relationship is under active deterioration and may be transitioning into a more meaningful failure.
Broken
The chart symbol is behaving as if benchmark linkage has materially weakened.
Repairing
The breakdown is no longer cleanly expanding, and the relationship may be stabilizing.
Recoupled
The benchmark relationship has improved enough to suggest that the prior structure is functioning again.
The Breakdown Score is used as a compact summary value. It is not intended to be interpreted as a trade signal on its own. It is a regime-strength readout that helps users compare the current condition of the relationship with the underlying state labels.
Key Inputs
Benchmark Symbol
Sets the comparison symbol. The default is BINANCE:BTCUSDT.
Benchmark Timeframe
Allows users to keep the benchmark on chart timeframe or compare against another timeframe.
Source
Selects Close, HLC3, or OHLC4 for the benchmark study.
Short Correlation Length / Long Correlation Length
Define the fast and slow windows used to evaluate current deterioration versus prior relationship structure.
Stable Relationship Threshold
Controls how strong the historical relationship must be before the script treats later weakness as a true breakdown candidate.
Breakdown Threshold / Repair Threshold
Control how strict the transition logic is for deterioration and recovery.
Min Long/Short Correlation Gap
Requires a meaningful difference between longer-term and shorter-term correlation before escalation.
Independent Move Threshold
Defines how much benchmark-relative price independence is required before the script treats the event as more than a statistical fluctuation.
Breakdown Confirmation Bars / Repair Confirmation Bars
Control persistence and confirmation sensitivity.
Visual Settings
Users can customize theme, visual intensity, panel font size, panel position, event visibility, trail visibility, and chart context density.
Limitations & Transparency
Correlation is a descriptive relationship metric, not a causal model.
A relationship breakdown does not automatically imply immediate continuation, reversal, trend acceleration, or trade opportunity. It only means the chart symbol is no longer behaving as consistently relative to the selected benchmark under the current settings.
Different assets, timeframes, and volatility regimes can produce different correlation behavior. A benchmark relationship that looks stable on one timeframe may be much less stable on another.
Short lookbacks can react faster but may create more noise. Longer lookbacks can be more stable but slower to react.
This script should be interpreted in the context of market structure, volatility, liquidity, and the chosen benchmark. It is a framework for reading relationship quality, not a guarantee engine.
Risk Disclosure
This indicator is for analytical and educational use.
It does not provide financial advice, does not predict future price direction, and should not be used in isolation for trading decisions. Users should perform their own analysis, validate settings on the markets they follow, and apply appropriate risk management. Indicator
