Daily Levels + EMA Clouds + ORB Arrows V2Daily Levels + EMA Clouds + ORB Arrows
This powerful intraday indicator combines key market structure levels with dynamic momentum visualization and Opening Range Breakout signals.
Key Features:
Previous Day High & Low — Solid, bold green (high) and red (low) lines for clear reference to the prior session's extremes.
Pre-Market High & Low — Lighter green/red dashed lines showing today's pre-market (4:00–9:30 ET) range.
Current Day Live High & Low (HOD/LOD) — Very light green/red dotted lines that update in real-time with the developing high and low of the current session.
EMA 9 & 20 Cloud — Plots the 9-period and 20-period Exponential Moving Averages with a filled cloud between them. The cloud turns green when EMA 9 is above EMA 20 (bullish bias) and red when below (bearish bias).
Opening Range Breakout (ORB) Arrows — Automatically detects your chosen opening range (default 30 minutes after 9:30 ET) and plots clear green ↑ arrows below candles on bullish breakouts and red ↓ arrows above candles on bearish breakouts.
Customization Options:
Toggle each level group on/off (Previous Day, Pre-Market, Current Day)
Adjust line extension length
Change EMA lengths and cloud opacity
Set custom Opening Range duration (5–120+ minutes)
Enable/disable ORB arrows and OR level plots
Best Used On:
1min, 3min, 5min, 15min charts (intraday)
US equities, futures, and forex during RTH (Regular Trading Hours)
Perfect for day traders, scalpers, and momentum traders who rely on daily levels, pre-market structure, and opening range breakouts for high-probability setups.
Time Zone: Built for America/New_York (standard US market hours). Lines and sessions automatically reset on new trading days. Indicator
Risk-Neutral Probability Cone [v1]The Risk-Neutral Probability Cone is a forward-looking volatility projection tool designed to help traders estimate probable future price ranges over a selected number of bars.
The indicator projects a probability cone from the current anchor price using a lognormal price-process framework. It plots expected path, ±1σ, ±2σ, and ±3σ forward price bands based on the selected volatility model, drift model, and projection horizon.
This is not a buy or sell signal indicator.
It is a scenario-planning, risk-management, and probability-mapping tool.
The goal is to help traders answer:
“How far could price reasonably move over my selected horizon?”
and
“Is my price target inside or outside the expected probability range?”
The indicator can be used across FX, crypto, equities, indices, commodities, futures, and other liquid markets.
WHAT THE INDICATOR DOES
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The indicator starts from an anchor price and projects a forward probability cone.
The cone is based on:
• Anchor price
• Selected volatility model
• Selected drift model
• Projection horizon
• Bars per year
• Lognormal price dynamics
• Standard deviation bands
The main output is a forward cone showing possible future price ranges.
The cone expands over time because uncertainty increases as the projection horizon becomes longer.
A short projection horizon will produce a narrower cone.
A long projection horizon will produce a wider cone.
CORE IDEA
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The indicator assumes that future price movement can be approximated using a lognormal distribution.
This is similar to the framework used in many derivatives and option-pricing models.
The projected price level is calculated using:
Expected price movement over time
plus
Volatility-adjusted standard deviation bands
The indicator then plots the following paths:
• Expected path
• +1σ and -1σ bands
• +2σ and -2σ bands
• +3σ and -3σ bands
These bands help traders visualize a probability-based forward range.
WHAT THE CONE LEVELS MEAN
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Expected Path
The expected path is the central projection line.
It reflects the selected drift model and the volatility adjustment used in the lognormal framework.
It should not be treated as a forecast.
It is a model-based expected reference path.
1σ Cone
The ±1σ cone shows the normal expected range around the projected path.
This is the most practical zone for ordinary price movement.
If price remains inside the 1σ cone, it is generally moving within a normal volatility-adjusted range.
2σ Cone
The ±2σ cone shows a more extended move.
Price moving toward or beyond the 2σ cone suggests a larger-than-normal move relative to the selected volatility model.
This may indicate:
• Momentum expansion
• Event-driven repricing
• Trend acceleration
• Liquidity shock
• Mispriced volatility assumption
3σ Cone
The ±3σ cone shows an extreme move zone.
This is useful for stress testing, event-risk planning, and identifying unusually large price moves.
A move toward the 3σ cone should not automatically be treated as a reversal signal.
Strong markets can remain outside expected ranges when volatility expands or when the original volatility input becomes stale.
MAIN COMPONENTS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. Anchor Price
The anchor price is the starting point of the probability cone.
The script supports four anchor modes:
• Close
• Manual
• EMA
• VWAP
Close uses the latest closing price.
Manual allows the trader to enter a specific price level.
EMA uses a moving average as the anchor.
VWAP uses volume-weighted average price as the anchor.
For live projection, Close is usually the easiest setting.
For scenario planning, Manual is useful because it allows the trader to anchor the cone from a specific entry price, event level, or key market level.
2. Projection Horizon
The projection horizon determines how far into the future the cone extends.
It is measured in bars.
For example:
• On a 1-hour chart, 24 bars means approximately 24 trading hours
• On a daily chart, 20 bars means approximately 20 trading days
• On a 5-minute chart, 48 bars means approximately 4 trading hours
The longer the horizon, the wider the cone becomes.
3. Cone Drawing Step
Cone Drawing Step controls how frequently the cone lines are drawn.
A smaller step makes the cone smoother.
A larger step makes the cone lighter and less visually crowded.
For shorter horizons, a smaller step can be used.
For longer horizons, a larger step can help keep the chart clean.
4. Volatility Model
The indicator includes three volatility model options:
• Realized Volatility
• ATR Proxy
• Composite
Realized Volatility uses log returns and rolling standard deviation.
ATR Proxy uses average true range as a percentage of price.
Composite blends realized volatility and ATR volatility.
Realized Volatility is more statistically direct.
ATR Proxy is more sensitive to intrabar range.
Composite is often the most practical default because it captures both close-to-close movement and range-based movement.
5. Drift Model
The indicator includes three drift models:
• Risk-Neutral
• Zero Drift
• Historical Drift
Risk-Neutral uses risk-free rate minus carry or dividend yield.
Zero Drift assumes no directional drift.
Historical Drift estimates drift from past log returns.
For short-term trading, Zero Drift or Risk-Neutral usually provides cleaner projections.
Historical Drift can be unstable and may overfit recent trends.
6. Risk-Free Rate and Carry / Dividend Yield
These inputs are used when the Drift Model is set to Risk-Neutral.
For equities, carry or dividend yield can represent dividend assumptions.
For FX, the difference between domestic and foreign rates may be relevant.
For crypto, users may prefer Zero Drift unless they have a clear carry assumption.
7. Probability to Target
The script includes an optional probability-to-target feature.
When enabled, the user can enter a target price.
The indicator estimates the model-based probability that price will finish above that target by the end of the projection horizon.
This is useful for scenario planning and target evaluation.
It should not be treated as a guaranteed forecast.
HOW TO READ THE INDICATOR
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The indicator plots a forward cone on the price chart.
General visual guide:
• White path = expected path
• Green cone = ±1σ range
• Orange cone = ±2σ range
• Red cone = ±3σ range
The dashboard shows:
• Anchor price
• Volatility model
• Annualized volatility
• Drift model
• Annual drift
• Horizon bars
• Expected terminal price
• +1σ and -1σ terminal levels
• +2σ and -2σ terminal levels
• +3σ and -3σ terminal levels
• Probability above target if enabled
The cone should be read as a forward probability range, not as support and resistance.
HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Use the Risk-Neutral Probability Cone as a forward scenario tool.
The main workflow is:
1. Choose the market and timeframe.
The indicator can be used on intraday or daily charts.
The timeframe should match the trader’s holding period.
2. Choose the anchor mode.
Use Close for live projection.
Use Manual for trade planning.
Use EMA for smoother trend-based projections.
Use VWAP for intraday execution context.
3. Select the projection horizon.
Match the horizon to the trade idea.
A scalp should use fewer bars.
A swing trade should use more bars.
4. Select the volatility model.
Use Realized Volatility for a cleaner statistical model.
Use ATR Proxy for a more range-sensitive model.
Use Composite for a balanced approach.
5. Select the drift model.
Use Risk-Neutral for derivatives-style scenario mapping.
Use Zero Drift for clean short-term projections.
Use Historical Drift only when you intentionally want recent trend behaviour included.
6. Read the cone.
If price is inside the 1σ cone, the move is relatively normal.
If price approaches the 2σ cone, the move is becoming extended.
If price approaches the 3σ cone, the move is extreme relative to the selected assumptions.
7. Compare price targets to the cone.
Targets inside the 1σ cone are more conservative.
Targets near the 2σ cone are more aggressive.
Targets near or beyond the 3σ cone require a much stronger volatility or trend justification.
PRACTICAL TRADING USE CASES
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. Trade Target Planning
The cone helps traders assess whether a target is realistic for the selected holding period.
If a target is far beyond the 2σ or 3σ cone, the trader should question whether the target is realistic without a major catalyst.
2. Stop-Loss Planning
The cone can help traders understand normal adverse movement.
A stop placed too close inside the normal 1σ range may be vulnerable to ordinary volatility.
A stop placed outside the expected range may require smaller position size.
3. Event-Risk Planning
The cone can be used before major events such as:
• CPI
• NFP
• FOMC
• ECB decisions
• Earnings
• Crypto unlocks
• Geopolitical events
• Major macro data
The trader can compare expected event movement against the cone.
If price moves outside the 2σ or 3σ cone after the event, it may indicate that the market is repricing beyond normal volatility assumptions.
4. Breakout Assessment
If price breaks above the 1σ cone and volatility is also expanding, the breakout may have more momentum support.
If price breaks the 1σ cone but immediately returns inside the cone, the breakout may be weaker.
5. Mean-Reversion Monitoring
Price near the 2σ or 3σ cone may be extended.
However, the cone should not be used to fade price blindly.
A better mean-reversion setup requires confirmation such as:
• Failed continuation
• Re-entry inside the cone
• Break of short-term structure
• Volatility cooling
• Reclaim of a key moving average
• Liquidity sweep and rejection
6. Scenario Analysis
The cone can be used to frame bull, base, and bear scenarios.
The upper cone levels represent upside scenarios.
The lower cone levels represent downside scenarios.
The expected path represents the model’s central scenario.
SUGGESTED SETTINGS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
FX 1-Hour
• Anchor Mode: Close or Manual
• Volatility Model: Realized Volatility or Composite
• Realized Volatility Lookback: 30 to 50
• ATR Lookback: 14
• Horizon Bars: 24 to 72
• Cone Drawing Step: 4 to 8
• Bars Per Year: 6240
• Drift Model: Risk-Neutral or Zero Drift
Crypto 1-Hour
• Anchor Mode: Close or Manual
• Volatility Model: Composite
• Realized Volatility Lookback: 50
• ATR Lookback: 14 to 21
• Horizon Bars: 24 to 168
• Cone Drawing Step: 6 to 12
• Bars Per Year: 8760
• Drift Model: Zero Drift or Risk-Neutral
Daily Equities / Indices
• Anchor Mode: Close or EMA
• Volatility Model: Composite
• Realized Volatility Lookback: 20 to 30
• ATR Lookback: 14
• Horizon Bars: 10 to 30
• Cone Drawing Step: 2 to 5
• Bars Per Year: 252
• Drift Model: Risk-Neutral
Intraday Indices
• Anchor Mode: Close, Manual, or VWAP
• Volatility Model: Composite
• Realized Volatility Lookback: 30 to 50
• ATR Lookback: 14
• Horizon Bars: 24 to 96
• Cone Drawing Step: 4 to 8
• Bars Per Year: adjust to the timeframe
• Drift Model: Zero Drift or Risk-Neutral
DRIFT MODEL GUIDE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Risk-Neutral Drift
Risk-Neutral drift uses:
Risk-Free Rate minus Carry / Dividend Yield
This is useful for a derivatives-style probability framework.
For FX, this may approximate the interest rate differential.
For equities, the carry input may represent dividend yield.
For crypto, this is often less relevant unless there is a specific funding or carry assumption.
Zero Drift
Zero Drift assumes no expected directional drift.
This is often useful for short-term trading because drift is usually small relative to volatility over short horizons.
Zero Drift is a clean default for intraday analysis.
Historical Drift
Historical Drift estimates drift from recent average log returns.
This can make the cone follow recent trend behaviour, but it is also more prone to overfitting.
Historical Drift should be used carefully.
VOLATILITY MODEL GUIDE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Realized Volatility
Realized Volatility uses close-to-close log returns.
This is statistically clean and works well for probability-based modelling.
ATR Proxy
ATR Proxy uses range-based volatility.
It is more sensitive to intrabar movement and can be useful for instruments with large wicks or wide trading ranges.
Composite
Composite blends realized volatility and ATR volatility.
This is often the best practical default because it captures both return-based and range-based volatility.
PROBABILITY TO TARGET
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The probability-to-target feature estimates the probability that price will finish above the selected target price by the end of the projection horizon.
This can be useful for:
• Checking whether a target is realistic
• Comparing upside and downside scenarios
• Evaluating trade targets before entry
• Stress testing expectations
• Avoiding overly ambitious targets
Important note:
The probability is model-based.
It depends heavily on the selected volatility, drift, anchor, and horizon inputs.
It should not be treated as a guaranteed probability.
HOW TO COMBINE WITH OTHER INDICATORS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This indicator works best as part of a broader volatility and market-structure framework.
Useful combinations:
• Expected Move Bands
• Realized Volatility Regime Indicator
• Implied Volatility Proxy
• Delta-Hedging Pressure Proxy
• Dynamic Stop-Loss Using Expected Move
• VWAP
• Moving averages
• Support and resistance
• Liquidity zones
• Market structure breaks
• Macro and event calendars
Suggested framework:
Expected Move Bands show near-term projected levels.
Realized Volatility Regime shows whether volatility is low, normal, high, or extreme.
IV Proxy shows whether broader uncertainty is rising or cooling.
Delta-Hedging Pressure Proxy shows whether directional pressure is positive or negative.
Dynamic Stop-Loss Using Expected Move converts volatility into stop and target levels.
Risk-Neutral Probability Cone maps a full forward probability range.
Together, these tools help answer:
• How far can price move?
• What is the probable forward range?
• Is the target realistic?
• Is volatility expanding or cooling?
• Is directional pressure aligned?
• Where should stops and targets be placed?
• Should position size be reduced?
TRADING EXAMPLES
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Example 1: Target Planning
A trader is long EUR/USD on the 1-hour chart.
The trader sets the cone horizon to 24 bars.
The upside target is close to the +1σ terminal level.
This suggests the target is within a normal expected range.
If the target is above +2σ, the trader may need stronger confirmation from trend, momentum, or event risk.
Example 2: Breakout Confirmation
Price breaks above a key resistance level and moves outside the +1σ cone.
If volatility is expanding and the IV Proxy is rising, the breakout may have stronger continuation potential.
If price quickly returns inside the cone, the breakout may be weaker.
Example 3: Event Risk
Before a central bank decision, a trader anchors the cone from the pre-event price.
After the event, price moves beyond the 2σ cone.
This suggests the event caused a larger-than-normal repricing relative to the volatility assumptions used before the event.
Example 4: Mean-Reversion Watch
Price trades near the +3σ cone.
This is an extreme move relative to the model.
However, the trader should not automatically short.
A better setup would require failed continuation, volatility cooling, and price re-entry inside the cone.
Example 5: Stop Placement Context
A trader wants to place a stop inside the 1σ cone.
The cone suggests that ordinary volatility could reach that level.
The trader may choose to reduce size and place the stop beyond a more meaningful structure level, or avoid the trade if reward-to-risk is poor.
RISK MANAGEMENT NOTES
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The cone is most useful when combined with position sizing and trade invalidation logic.
Practical risk rules:
• Do not treat cone levels as guaranteed support or resistance
• Do not fade 2σ or 3σ moves without confirmation
• Reduce size when volatility is high and the cone is wide
• Avoid unrealistic targets far outside the cone without a catalyst
• Use the cone to judge whether stops and targets are reasonable
• Re-anchor the cone after major events or regime shifts
• Treat the cone as a scenario map, not a forecast
A wider cone means uncertainty is higher.
Higher uncertainty should generally mean smaller position size.
WHAT THIS INDICATOR IS BEST FOR
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This indicator is best used for:
• Forward probability mapping
• Scenario analysis
• Target evaluation
• Event-risk planning
• Stop and target context
• Volatility-adjusted range projection
• Identifying normal versus extreme price movement
• Trade planning
• Risk management
It is useful for traders who want to frame markets probabilistically instead of relying only on static support and resistance.
WHAT THIS INDICATOR IS NOT
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This indicator is not:
• A buy or sell signal generator
• A standalone trading strategy
• A guarantee that price will stay inside the cone
• A Monte Carlo simulation
• A true options-implied probability model
• A replacement for risk management
• A replacement for market structure
• A complete trading system
The cone describes a model-based forward distribution.
It does not predict the future with certainty.
IMPORTANT LIMITATIONS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The indicator depends on model assumptions.
Key assumptions include:
• Volatility estimate is relevant for the future horizon
• Price movement can be approximated by a lognormal process
• Drift input is reasonable
• Market conditions remain broadly comparable
• No sudden structural break occurs
These assumptions can fail.
The cone may become inaccurate during:
• Economic data shocks
• Central bank decisions
• Earnings surprises
• Geopolitical events
• Liquidity gaps
• Crypto liquidation cascades
• Market opens and closes
• Sudden volatility regime shifts
The indicator does not include:
• Options implied volatility
• Options skew
• Volatility term structure
• Dealer positioning
• Order flow
• Market depth
• News sentiment
• Fundamental data
• Liquidity conditions
The cone should be used as a decision-support tool, not as a standalone trading system.
FINAL NOTES
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The Risk-Neutral Probability Cone helps traders convert volatility, drift, and time into a forward probability map.
Instead of asking only whether price is bullish or bearish, this tool helps answer:
• What is the probable forward range?
• Is the current move normal or extended?
• Is my target realistic?
• Is my stop too close?
• Is the market moving beyond expected assumptions?
• Should I reduce size because uncertainty is high?
• Has the market repriced beyond the cone after an event?
The indicator is designed to improve scenario planning, risk discipline, and volatility-aware decision making.
Indicator
Dynamic Stop-Loss Using Expected Move [v1]Dynamic Stop-Loss Using Expected Move
The Dynamic Stop-Loss Using Expected Move indicator is a volatility-aware risk management tool designed to help traders place adaptive stop-loss levels based on the expected price movement of the market.
Instead of using a fixed pip, point, or percentage stop, this indicator estimates how far price could reasonably move over a selected holding period and then converts that expected move into dynamic long and short stop levels.
This is not a buy or sell signal indicator.
It is a risk-management framework designed to answer:
“How far can price reasonably move against my position before the trade thesis is likely invalidated?”
The indicator can be used across FX, crypto, indices, commodities, futures, and liquid stocks.
WHAT THE INDICATOR DOES
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The indicator calculates a volatility-based expected move over a selected holding period.
It then uses that expected move to build adaptive stop-loss levels for long and short positions.
The basic logic is:
Expected Move = Entry Anchor × Volatility × Square Root of Holding Period
The stop distance is then calculated as:
Stop Distance = Expected Move × Stop Sigma × Volatility Regime Multiplier
For a long position:
Long Stop = Entry Anchor - Stop Distance
For a short position:
Short Stop = Entry Anchor + Stop Distance
This means the stop automatically responds to volatility.
When volatility rises, the stop becomes wider.
When volatility falls, the stop becomes tighter.
WHY THIS INDICATOR IS USEFUL
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Static stops can be too tight during volatile regimes and too wide during compressed regimes.
This indicator tries to solve that problem by adjusting the stop distance according to current market volatility.
The goal is not to avoid every losing trade.
The goal is to place stops that are more consistent with the current volatility environment.
This can help traders:
• Avoid stops that are too tight during high volatility
• Avoid unnecessarily wide stops during low volatility
• Plan trade risk before entry
• Compare stop distance to expected reward
• Adjust stop logic across different markets and timeframes
• Use volatility as part of position sizing and trade management
MAIN COMPONENTS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. Entry Anchor
The entry anchor is the reference price used to calculate the stop and target levels.
The script allows four anchor modes:
• Close
• Manual
• EMA
• VWAP
Close uses the latest closing price.
Manual allows the trader to enter a specific entry price.
EMA uses a moving average as the anchor.
VWAP uses volume-weighted average price as the anchor.
For pre-trade planning, Manual is often the most precise because it lets the trader set the actual intended entry level.
For live chart context, Close or EMA may be easier to use.
2. Volatility Model
The indicator supports three volatility models:
• Realized Volatility
• ATR Proxy
• Composite
Realized Volatility uses log returns and rolling standard deviation.
ATR Proxy uses average true range as a percentage of price.
Composite blends realized volatility and ATR volatility.
Realized Volatility is cleaner from a statistical perspective.
ATR Proxy is more range-sensitive.
Composite is usually the most practical default because it captures both close-to-close volatility and intrabar range behaviour.
3. Expected Holding Period
The holding period is the number of bars the trader expects to hold the trade.
For example:
• On a 1-hour chart, 20 bars means roughly 20 trading hours
• On a daily chart, 10 bars means roughly 10 trading days
• On a 5-minute chart, 24 bars means roughly 2 trading hours
The holding period matters because expected move increases with time.
Longer holding periods create wider expected moves.
Shorter holding periods create tighter expected moves.
4. Bars Per Year
Bars Per Year is used to annualize and de-annualize volatility correctly.
Suggested settings:
• Daily FX / indices: 252
• Daily crypto: 365
• 1-hour FX: approximately 6240
• 1-hour crypto: approximately 8760
The correct value depends on the asset class and timeframe.
5. Stop Sigma
Stop Sigma controls how much of the expected move is used for the stop distance.
For example:
• 1.0σ means the stop is placed around one expected move away
• 1.5σ means the stop is wider
• 2.0σ means the stop is more defensive
Lower sigma creates tighter stops.
Higher sigma creates wider stops.
6. Volatility Regime Multiplier
The indicator can adjust the stop distance based on the volatility regime.
Default logic:
• Low Vol: tighter stop multiplier
• Normal Vol: standard stop multiplier
• High Vol: wider stop multiplier
• Extreme Vol: widest stop multiplier
This helps prevent the stop from being too tight when volatility is elevated.
7. Stop Mode
The script includes three stop modes:
• Static From Anchor
• Trailing
• Ratchet Only
Static From Anchor keeps the stop based on the selected anchor.
Trailing moves the stop based on the latest price or high/low reference.
Ratchet Only only moves the stop in a favourable direction.
For live trade management, Ratchet Only is usually the most practical because it avoids loosening the stop after it has already tightened.
8. Break-Even Rule
The script includes an optional break-even rule.
When enabled, the stop can move to the entry anchor after price moves a selected number of sigma in favour of the trade.
For example, if the break-even trigger is 1.0σ, the stop will move to break-even after price moves one expected move in the trader’s favour.
This can help protect trades after the market confirms the initial direction.
9. Expected Move Targets
The indicator can also plot expected move targets.
Targets are calculated using the same expected move logic as the stop.
For long positions:
• Long Target 1 is above the entry anchor
• Long Target 2 is further above the entry anchor
For short positions:
• Short Target 1 is below the entry anchor
• Short Target 2 is further below the entry anchor
These targets are not predictions.
They are volatility-adjusted reference levels for planning reward-to-risk.
HOW TO READ THE INDICATOR
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The indicator plots the following on the price chart:
• Entry Anchor
• Long Dynamic Stop
• Short Dynamic Stop
• Long Target 1
• Long Target 2
• Short Target 1
• Short Target 2
• Forward projected stop and target lines
• Dashboard with volatility and risk metrics
Colour guide:
• White line = Entry Anchor
• Red line = Long Stop
• Green line = Short Stop
• Green upper lines = Long targets
• Red lower lines = Short targets
The dashboard shows:
• Volatility Model
• Volatility Regime
• Volatility Percentile
• Expected Move
• Stop Sigma
• Stop Distance
• Long Stop
• Short Stop
• Long Risk %
• Short Risk %
VOLATILITY REGIME INTERPRETATION
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The indicator classifies volatility into four regimes:
Low Vol
Low volatility means the market is compressed relative to recent history.
In this environment, stops may be tighter because price movement is currently smaller.
However, traders should be aware that low volatility can sometimes precede a breakout.
Normal Vol
Normal volatility means price movement is close to its recent historical range.
This is usually the cleanest environment for standard stop logic.
High Vol
High volatility means price movement is elevated.
In this environment, stops generally need to be wider and position size should usually be smaller.
Tight stops are more likely to be hit during high volatility.
Extreme Vol
Extreme volatility means the market is in a stress or shock regime.
This can happen during economic data releases, central bank decisions, earnings shocks, crypto liquidations, geopolitical events, or major breakouts.
In this environment, traders should be careful with leverage and avoid using normal-volatility stop assumptions.
HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Use the indicator as a risk engine.
It is designed to help with stop placement, target planning, and trade management.
It should not be used as a standalone entry signal.
The main workflow is:
1. Choose the position mode.
Select Long, Short, or Both.
Use Long if planning a long trade.
Use Short if planning a short trade.
Use Both if comparing both sides.
2. Choose the entry anchor.
Use Manual if you know your exact planned entry price.
Use Close for live chart reference.
Use EMA for a smoother trend-based anchor.
Use VWAP for intraday execution context.
3. Choose the volatility model.
Use Realized Volatility for statistically cleaner expected move calculations.
Use ATR Proxy for a more range-sensitive stop.
Use Composite for a balanced model.
4. Set the expected holding period.
Match this to your trade horizon.
A scalp should use fewer bars.
A swing trade should use more bars.
5. Set the stop sigma.
Use a lower sigma for tighter stops.
Use a higher sigma for wider stops.
Common starting points:
• 1.0σ for tighter tactical stops
• 1.25σ to 1.5σ for balanced stops
• 2.0σ for wider defensive stops
6. Check the volatility regime.
If volatility is high or extreme, the stop will widen if the regime multiplier is enabled.
This helps the stop adapt to the current environment.
7. Compare stop distance to target distance.
Do not only ask whether the stop looks reasonable.
Ask whether the trade still has acceptable reward-to-risk.
8. Use price structure for execution.
The indicator helps with stop placement.
It does not decide trade direction.
Entries should still be based on price action, market structure, trend, support/resistance, liquidity, or macro context.
STOP MODE GUIDE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Static From Anchor
This mode keeps the stop based on the selected entry anchor.
Best for:
• Pre-trade planning
• Fixed trade thesis invalidation
• Manual entry planning
• Swing trade risk planning
This mode is clean and stable.
Trailing
This mode recalculates the stop based on the latest price movement.
Best for:
• Active trade management
• Fast-moving markets
• Short-term trading
However, this mode can move the stop both tighter and looser depending on price and volatility.
Ratchet Only
This mode only moves the stop in the trader’s favour.
For long positions, the stop can move higher but not lower.
For short positions, the stop can move lower but not higher.
Best for:
• Live trade management
• Trend-following
• Protecting open profits
• Reducing discretionary stop movement
Ratchet Only is usually the best mode for managing trades after entry.
BREAK-EVEN RULE GUIDE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The break-even rule moves the stop to the entry anchor after price has moved a selected number of sigma in favour of the position.
Example:
If Break-Even Trigger is 1.0σ:
• A long trade moves to break-even after price rises by one expected move
• A short trade moves to break-even after price falls by one expected move
This is useful when the trader wants to reduce downside risk after the trade has started working.
However, moving to break-even too early can also stop out good trades before continuation.
A practical setting is usually between 1.0σ and 1.5σ.
SUGGESTED SETTINGS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
FX 1-Hour
• Position Mode: Long, Short, or Both
• Entry Anchor Mode: Manual or Close
• Volatility Model: Realized Volatility or Composite
• Realized Volatility Lookback: 30 to 50
• ATR Lookback: 14
• Expected Holding Period: 20 to 24
• Bars Per Year: 6240
• Base Stop Sigma: 1.0 to 1.5
• Stop Mode: Static From Anchor or Ratchet Only
Crypto 1-Hour
• Position Mode: Long, Short, or Both
• Entry Anchor Mode: Manual or Close
• Volatility Model: Composite
• Realized Volatility Lookback: 50
• ATR Lookback: 14 to 21
• Expected Holding Period: 24
• Bars Per Year: 8760
• Base Stop Sigma: 1.25 to 2.0
• Stop Mode: Ratchet Only
Daily Equities / Indices
• Position Mode: Long, Short, or Both
• Entry Anchor Mode: Manual or EMA
• EMA Length: 20 or 50
• Volatility Model: Composite
• Realized Volatility Lookback: 20 to 30
• ATR Lookback: 14
• Expected Holding Period: 10 to 20
• Bars Per Year: 252
• Base Stop Sigma: 1.0 to 1.5
• Stop Mode: Ratchet Only
Intraday Indices
• Position Mode: Long, Short, or Both
• Entry Anchor Mode: VWAP, Close, or Manual
• Volatility Model: Composite
• Realized Volatility Lookback: 30 to 50
• ATR Lookback: 14
• Expected Holding Period: 12 to 48
• Bars Per Year: adjust to timeframe
• Base Stop Sigma: 1.25 to 2.0
• Stop Mode: Ratchet Only
PRACTICAL EXAMPLES
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Example 1: Long Trade Planning
A trader is planning a long EUR/USD trade on the 1-hour chart.
The intended entry is 1.1500.
The indicator estimates a 20-bar expected move of 0.40%.
The stop sigma is set to 1.25σ.
The model calculates a long stop below the entry anchor.
The trader can now compare:
• Entry price
• Dynamic stop
• Long Target 1
• Long Target 2
• Volatility regime
• Risk percentage
If the stop is too wide relative to the target, the trade may not offer attractive reward-to-risk.
Example 2: Short Trade Planning
A trader is planning a short trade after price breaks support.
The trader sets Position Mode to Short.
The script plots a short stop above the entry anchor and downside targets below it.
If volatility is high, the stop will be wider.
This helps avoid placing the stop too close during a fast market.
Example 3: High Volatility Regime
The dashboard shows Extreme Vol.
The model widens the stop using the extreme volatility multiplier.
This does not mean the trade is good or bad.
It means the market requires more room because price movement is elevated.
The trader may respond by:
• Reducing position size
• Waiting for volatility to cool
• Using wider stops
• Avoiding over-leverage
• Reassessing whether the reward justifies the risk
Example 4: Ratchet Stop Management
A trader enters a long position and selects Ratchet Only mode.
As price rises, the stop moves higher.
If price falls, the stop does not move lower.
This allows the trader to protect open profits while still using volatility-adjusted stop logic.
RISK MANAGEMENT NOTES
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This indicator is most useful when combined with disciplined position sizing.
A wider volatility stop does not mean taking more risk.
It usually means reducing position size so that the cash risk remains controlled.
For example:
If the stop distance doubles, position size should generally be reduced by half to keep the same account risk.
Practical risk rules:
• Define account risk before using the stop
• Do not widen stops without reducing size
• Avoid using tight stops in high-volatility regimes
• Avoid using very wide stops without sufficient reward potential
• Use the stop as invalidation, not as a random distance
• Do not treat target levels as guaranteed price forecasts
HOW TO COMBINE WITH OTHER INDICATORS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This indicator works best as part of a broader volatility and market-structure framework.
Useful combinations:
• Expected Move Bands
• Realized Volatility Regime Indicator
• Implied Volatility Proxy
• Delta-Hedging Pressure Proxy
• VWAP
• Moving averages
• Support and resistance
• Liquidity zones
• Market structure breaks
• Macro and event calendars
Suggested framework:
Expected Move Bands show where price may reasonably move.
Realized Volatility Regime shows whether volatility is low, normal, high, or extreme.
IV Proxy shows whether broader uncertainty is rising or cooling.
Delta-Hedging Pressure Proxy shows whether directional pressure is positive or negative.
Dynamic Stop-Loss Using Expected Move converts volatility into actionable risk levels.
Together, these tools help answer:
• How far can price move?
• What volatility regime are we in?
• Is uncertainty rising or cooling?
• Is directional pressure positive or negative?
• Where should the stop be placed?
• Is the reward-to-risk acceptable?
• Should position size be reduced?
WHAT THIS INDICATOR IS BEST FOR
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This indicator is best used for:
• Volatility-adjusted stop placement
• Trade risk planning
• Expected move-based target planning
• Position management
• Stop distance calibration
• Risk percentage monitoring
• High-volatility regime adjustment
• Avoiding random stop placement
• Improving reward-to-risk discipline
It is useful for traders who want stop placement to be linked to market conditions instead of fixed distances.
WHAT THIS INDICATOR IS NOT
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This indicator is not:
• A buy or sell signal generator
• A standalone trading strategy
• A guarantee that the stop will not be hit
• A prediction model
• A replacement for position sizing
• A replacement for market structure
• A complete trading system
The indicator tells you where a volatility-adjusted stop may be placed.
It does not tell you whether the trade should be entered.
IMPORTANT LIMITATIONS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The indicator uses historical volatility and range behaviour.
It does not know future volatility.
Volatility can change rapidly after:
• Economic data releases
• Central bank decisions
• Earnings reports
• Geopolitical events
• Liquidity shocks
• Market opens and closes
• Crypto liquidation cascades
• Sudden order-flow imbalance
The indicator does not include:
• Options implied volatility
• Order flow
• Market depth
• Positioning data
• News sentiment
• Fundamental data
• Liquidity conditions
A volatility-based stop can still be hit during a normal adverse move.
It should be used with position sizing, trade invalidation logic, and market structure.
FINAL NOTES
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The Dynamic Stop-Loss Using Expected Move indicator helps traders convert volatility into practical risk levels.
Instead of asking only where support or resistance is, this tool helps answer:
• How far can price reasonably move against me?
• Is my stop too tight for current volatility?
• Is my stop too wide for the expected reward?
• Should my position size be reduced?
• Should the stop trail or stay fixed?
• Has volatility changed enough to alter my risk assumptions?
The indicator is designed to improve trade planning, stop discipline, and volatility-aware risk management.
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Event HorizonEvent Horizon is a historical analog projection fan designed to answer one practical question:
What has price tended to do after market conditions similar to the current one?
Instead of using a fixed crossover, oscillator threshold, or trend flip, this indicator builds a market fingerprint from the current chart, searches historical bars for similar conditions, and projects how those past analogs moved forward. The result is a visual forward fan showing possible path behavior, consensus direction, dispersion, confidence, and the closest historical analog path.
The goal is not to predict the future with certainty. The goal is to give traders a structured way to compare the current setup against similar historical environments and quickly see whether the analogs are aligned, scattered, bullish, bearish, or not useful.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
What makes this script different
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Most projection tools draw a channel, regression, moving average extension, or volatility cone from a fixed formula.
Event Horizon uses a historical analog engine. Each bar is converted into a multi-factor feature profile, then compared against prior market states using weighted Euclidean similarity. The closest historical analogs are used to create a forward projection fan.
The script combines:
• Historical analog matching
• Weighted Euclidean distance
• Regime-aware scoring
• Volatility and trend-state filtering
• Consensus projection logic
• Closest historical path overlay
• Agreement and confidence scoring
• Directional historical event dots
• A visual fan that shows uncertainty instead of one hard prediction
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
How it works
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. Market fingerprint
The script measures the current market using multiple dimensions, including:
• Recent price movement
• Trend slope
• ATR expansion and compression
• Candle range and body behavior
• Wick imbalance
• Position relative to recent structure
• Breakout distance
• Volume ratio and volume trend
• ATR percentile
• ADX / trend strength
• Historical shape samples
This creates a multi-dimensional profile of the current setup.
2. Historical analog search
The current profile is compared to historical profiles on the same chart. Similarity is calculated with weighted Euclidean distance, so higher-value features such as trend, volatility regime, and price-shape behavior can matter more than smaller candle details.
Closer historical examples receive stronger match scores.
3. Regime awareness
The script also classifies the current environment into regimes such as trend, compression, volatility expansion, volume shock, or range/chop. Historical examples from incompatible regimes are penalized, helping reduce weak comparisons.
4. Forward projection
Once the best analogs are selected, the script looks at what actually happened after those historical setups. Those forward moves are normalized and projected from the current anchor point.
5. Consensus and confidence
The indicator summarizes the analog group with:
• Directional bias
• Agreement percentage
• Dispersion
• Confidence score
• Edge state: TRADEABLE, CAUTION, or NO EDGE
• Historical self-test statistics
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
How to read the fan
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The colored fan shows the projected analog field.
The colored median shows the consensus path of the analog set.
The white line shows the closest visible historical analog path. It is not a guaranteed target. It is the path taken by the most similar past setup selected by the engine.
The wider the fan, the more disagreement there is between analogs.
The tighter the fan, the more historically aligned the analogs are.
The confidence and edge label are important. A bullish-looking fan with low confidence or high dispersion should be treated differently than a bullish fan with strong agreement and cleaner regime structure.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Historical dots
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Historical event dots help visually review where prior projection events occurred.
• Bullish projection dots appear below price
• Bearish projection dots appear above price
• Mixed or neutral readings are visually separated
This makes it easier to inspect whether the indicator has been identifying useful directional conditions on the current symbol and timeframe.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
How to use it
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
For newer traders:
1. Start on the Daily or 4H chart.
2. Look at the colored median.
3. Check whether the white analog path agrees with the median.
4. Check confidence and agreement.
5. Avoid forcing trades when the label says NO EDGE or when dispersion is high.
A stronger bullish read usually has:
• Median path rising
• White analog path also rising
• Agreement above roughly 65%
• Confidence above roughly 70
• Low or medium dispersion
• Edge state showing TRADEABLE or CAUTION, not NO EDGE
A weaker or avoidable read usually has:
• Median and white path disagreeing
• Agreement near 50%
• High dispersion
• Low confidence
• Range/chop regime
• NO EDGE label
For experienced traders:
Use the fan as an analog-based context layer. It is most useful when combined with your own structure, liquidity, trend, support/resistance, volume, or macro view. The script is designed to show whether historical analog behavior supports or conflicts with the trade idea you already see on the chart.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Suggested settings
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Balanced stocks / ETFs:
• Mode: Current Bar Projection
• Visual Mode: Cinematic
• Fan Style: Hybrid Swarm + Contours
• Horizon: 30
• Memory Lookback: 1800
• Max Analogs: 30
• Minimum Analogs: 6
• Pre-Event Window: 20
• Shape Samples: 6
• Path Scale: 1.0
Crypto:
• Horizon: 24
• Memory Lookback: 2000 to 2500
• Path Scale: 0.75 to 0.90
• Flexible direction matching
Intraday:
• Horizon: 20 to 24
• Minimum Analogs: 8
• Path Scale: 0.75 to 1.0
• Use liquid symbols only
Trend continuation:
• Direction Matching: Strict
• Mirror Opposite Direction: Off
• Path Scale: 1.0
Reversal / exhaustion:
• Direction Matching: Flexible
• Mirror Opposite Direction: On
• Path Scale: 0.75
• Shorter horizon preferred
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Best use cases
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Event Horizon is best suited for:
• Liquid stocks
• Major ETFs
• Index products
• Major crypto pairs
• Trend continuation setups
• Post-compression expansion
• Structure breaks
• Swing-trade context
• Daily and 4H analysis
It is less suitable for:
• Illiquid symbols
• Very new tickers with limited history
• Low-volume penny stocks
• Earnings gaps
• Binary news events
• Extremely short scalping timeframes
• Markets with sudden one-off catalysts
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Important notes
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This is an analog projection tool, not a standalone buy/sell system.
Historical similarity does not guarantee future behavior. Market structure, liquidity, volatility, news, and macro conditions can change quickly. The fan should be used as a decision-support layer, not as a guaranteed forecast.
The strongest readings occur when the median, white analog path, agreement, confidence, and regime state all point in the same direction.
The weakest readings occur when analogs are scattered, confidence is low, dispersion is high, or the script identifies a no-edge environment.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Summary
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Event Horizon turns historical market behavior into a forward analog projection fan.
It helps traders see:
• What similar past setups did next
• Whether those analogs agree or disagree
• Whether the current regime supports the projection
• Whether the projected path is tight or scattered
• Whether the setup has enough confidence to matter
Use it to add historical context, probability awareness, and regime-based discipline to your chart analysis.
Indicator
Indicator
Markov Regime 2.0 - Bull / Bear / SidewaysHere's a publish-ready description for the indicator — written to be honest about what it does and doesn't do (in the spirit of the method):
---
**Markov Regime 2.0 — Bull / Bear / Sideways**
A market-regime model that labels price history into Bull / Bear / Sideways states, builds the Markov transition matrix between them, and turns the regime's persistence into a directional signal. This is a corrected rebuild of the classic Markov regime indicator, with three statistical flaws fixed — so the numbers it shows are honest rather than flattering.
**How it works**
- Each bar is labelled by its rolling N-day return: ≥ +5% = Bull, ≤ −5% = Bear, otherwise Sideways (all configurable).
- It counts how often each state transitions to each other state and normalises into a 3×3 probability matrix. The diagonal is the regime "stickiness" — how likely a state is to persist.
- The signal is `P(bull next) − P(bear next)` from today's regime row: sign = direction, magnitude = conviction.
**The three corrections (what makes it 2.0)**
1. **Stride sampling (the autocorrelation fix).** The original counted a transition on *every* bar — but consecutive rolling windows share all but one bar, which manufactures fake persistence on the diagonal. 2.0 also counts transitions between *non-overlapping* windows (stride = lookback). Each matrix cell shows `honest stride % (legacy overlapping % in brackets)` so you can see the inflation directly.
2. **Label self-check.** Before displaying, it verifies that mean return of Bear < Sideways < Bull and flags a `✓`/`✗` next to the sample size — so a mislabelled state can't ship silently.
3. **Explicit signal + modes.** A real signal with a no-edge deadband (Standalone mode sizes a position by conviction; Filter mode just gates longs/shorts), instead of pure visualisation.
**On the chart**
- A compact dashboard: the transition matrix, current regime (TODAY), the live signal with a verdict (`stay flat` / `LONG x%` / `SHORT x%`), sample size and label-check.
- Optional regime ribbon and state-transition labels.
- **Edge markers:** ▲ LONG / ▼ SHORT print on the candle where the *walk-forward* signal first crosses the deadband. The per-bar signal uses only data available up to that bar (no look-ahead), so markers on closed bars don't repaint. Matching alerts are built in.
**How to read it**
Use it on a daily chart — the default is a ~20-*day* regime concept. Treat the honest (stride) column as the real one; if it sits near 33% (a 3-state coin flip) and the signal stays inside the deadband, the model is telling you there's **no edge — stay flat**, and that's a valid answer. The bracketed legacy values are shown only to expose how much the old overlapping method exaggerates persistence. Small-history assets will have a low transition count (`n=`) — the smaller that number, the less you should trust the matrix.
**Disclaimer**
This is a research and visualisation tool, not financial advice and not a strategy with a guaranteed edge. It reads regimes and reports what your own rules imply; it does not place trades. Past regime behaviour does not predict future returns. Always size and manage risk yourself.
Original framework: Roan (@RohOnChain). 2.0 corrections per the Markov 2.0 method.
---
Want a **short version** (2–3 lines for the script's one-liner subtitle), or should I drop this straight into the code as the top comment block / an `//@description` line? Indicator
Indicator
AetherEdge - Smart Money Flow🖊️ Overview
AE-SMF focuses on what smart-money price action is really about — liquidity. It maps the stop pools resting above swing highs (buyside) and below swing lows (sellside) and learns which liquidity price reaches for next (draw on liquidity). The liquidity, sweep, displacement/FVG and premium/discount concepts are re-implemented from public material, with a genuine learning core on top.
🔶 Key Features
Liquidity pool map — buyside/sellside pools, auto-removed once taken
Sweep detection — a grab of one side's liquidity followed by reclaim
ML: draw on liquidity — learns P(the buyside pool is reached before the sellside pool), turning the pull of price into a probability
RL: self-tuning bias threshold — a UCB bandit auto-tunes the firing threshold per structure regime
Sweep-origin signals — TP set to the targeted liquidity pool, SL beyond the swept extreme
Displacement/FVG and premium/discount included
Structure uses confirmed pivots; training and signals gate on bar close — no repaint
🧠 Technical Architecture
Liquidity engine: buyside/sellside pools from confirmed pivots are held in arrays; pools price trades through (taken liquidity) are removed; the nearest pools are drawn as lines.
Sweeps: piercing sellside then reclaiming up = bullish sweep; piercing buyside then closing down = bearish sweep.
ML (online logistic regression): eight features (trend, displacement tendency, premium/discount position, recent bullish/bearish sweep, distance to the buyside/sellside pools, structure direction) feed a model of the draw = P(buyside pool reached before sellside, within N bars). Each confirmed bar labels a pool-to-pool barrier — which of the nearest buyside target (above) and sellside target (below) is touched first — so the prediction uses no future data. If neither is reached in time, the sample is discarded (only clean draws train it).
RL (UCB contextual bandit): auto-tunes the bias firing threshold per structure regime (trend-strength terciles). Its reward is tied to the same draw resolution (a confident bias that proves correct = +1, wrong = −penalty, abstaining when neutral = a small reward) — so the ML training and the RL reward share one judgment loop.
Signals: long = bullish sweep + buyside draw ≥ threshold + discount; short = the mirror. TP is the targeted liquidity pool; SL is beyond the swept extreme.
Honest scope: a linear classifier + a UCB bandit over standard liquidity/structure features. Not deep learning, not a guarantee.
⚙️ Recommended Settings & Tuning Guide
Key parameters: swing lookback (pivots), pools per side, displacement multiple, barrier horizon N, learning rate, threshold search range, stop buffer.
Larger swing lookback → focus on major-structure pools; smaller → more detections
N is the window for deciding which liquidity is reached first (smaller for short-term, larger for swing)
Crypto starting points (tune on your chart):
BTC / ETH (15m–4H): defaults are the baseline (pivLen 10, N 20)
SOL / XRP and high-vol alts: a slightly longer swing lookback and a wider stop buffer to avoid wick-hunts
Scalping (1–15m): smaller pivot length and N
Swing (4H–daily): larger pivot length, N, and warmup
Bias, accuracy, and threshold are coarse until warmup plus enough draws accumulate
💡 How to Use in Practice
Read the draw bias for the liquidity price is likely to target next (buyside = up, sellside = down)
Enter on a sweep + agreeing-draw signal and use the drawn SL/TP (TP = the targeted pool)
Use premium/discount to favor advantageous pullbacks/rallies (buy discount, sell premium)
Leave the auto threshold to the learner by default
Combine with a higher-timeframe liquidity view or a precision-entry tool (AE-ACE)
⚠️ Important Notes
Needs a learning period (warmup); weights and the Q-table re-learn on input/symbol/timeframe change
Pools come from confirmed pivots, so the latest extreme confirms a few bars late (the trade-off for avoiding repaint)
A sweep does not guarantee a reversal (it can continue)
Probability, not a guarantee — always use stops and position sizing
🚨 Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. No method guarantees future profits; past performance does not indicate future results, and trading carries the risk of loss. All trading decisions are your own — use proper backtesting and disciplined risk management. Indicator
Indicator
INDEX Dashboard + Round Number Magnet**INDEX Dashboard + Round Number Magnet**
A dual-purpose indicator that displays a real-time index dashboard and alerts you when price is approaching or pinning a key round number level.
**Dashboard**
Shows a 4x3 grid of the major US indices across Cash, Futures, and ETF categories — DowJones, S&P500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000. Each cell is color-coded green/red based on the day's percentage change, with intensity scaling to the size of the move. The leading index in each row is marked with a ★. VIX is displayed in the top corner with color-coded risk levels (green below 15, orange below 20, red above).
**Round Number Magnet**
Active on SPX, SPY, QQQ, and US500.F only. Automatically detects the nearest round number level based on the instrument (25-point grid for SPX/ES, 5-point grid for SPY/QQQ) and draws a grid of levels above and below price. When price gets within the proximity threshold of a round number, a flashing banner appears at the top of the chart inside a table. If price stays near the level for several bars, it escalates to a PINNING alert — indicating dealers may be actively defending the strike.
**Alerts included**
- Approaching a round number
- PINNING detected at a round number Indicator
IC KEY LEVELS & ICEThis is the IC Key Levels indicator — a multi-timeframe price level plotting tool built around the concept that key opens, highs, lows, and midpoints from higher timeframes act as significant support/resistance levels on lower timeframe charts.
What it plots
It draws horizontal lines with labels for the following levels, each toggleable independently:
4H — Previous 4H open, high, low, and midpoint
Daily — Current day's open, previous day's high, low, and midpoint
Monday Range — Monday's high, low, and midpoint (resets each week)
Weekly — Current week's open, previous week's high, low, and midpoint
Monthly — Current month's open, previous month's high, low, and midpoint
Quarterly — Current quarter's open, previous quarter's high, low, and midpoint
Yearly — Current year's open, current year's high, low, and midpoint
FX Sessions — London, New York, and Asia session highs, lows, and opens (tracked in each city's local timezone)
Key features
Merge Levels — When two or more levels share the exact same price, their labels are combined into one (e.g. "WO / MO"), preventing label clutter at confluences.
Display Style — Lines can be drawn from where the period opened ("Standard") or anchored to a fixed distance from the right edge of the chart ("Right Anchored"), useful for keeping levels visible regardless of how far you've scrolled.
Global Coloring — A single master color can override all individual timeframe colors at once.
Shorthand Labels — Each group can be switched to abbreviated text (e.g. "PWH" instead of "Prev Week High") to reduce chart noise.
Line customisation — Width (Small/Medium/Large), style (Solid/Dashed/Dotted), and label size are all configurable globally.
The philosophy behind it
This is rooted in ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts — hence "IC" in the name. The idea is that institutional order flow tends to react at these periodic open/high/low prices because large participants reference the same levels. The Monday Range in particular is a key ICT concept, as Monday's price action is often considered a "draw" that the rest of the week either sweeps or respects. Session ranges (London, NY, Asia) are similarly used to identify where liquidity was taken and where price may return.
ICE CANDLE LOGIC INCLUDED
Indicator
Indicator
MACD RSI Stochastic Buy/Sell Timing TableBuy/Sell MACD RSI Stochastics v6
This Pine Script v6 oscillator-pane indicator focuses on timing signals using RSI, Stochastic, MACD, optional EMA trend confirmation, and optional volume confirmation.
The script combines RSI levels and threshold crosses, Stochastic %K / %D relationships and crosses, MACD line / signal / histogram logic, buy and sell setup markers, strong buy and strong sell markers, a compact oscillator decision table, alerts, and Data Window values.
It calculates a numeric oscillator score on every bar. Bullish confirmations add points, bearish confirmations subtract points, and the final score is converted into Strong Buy, Buy / Watch Long, Neutral / Wait, Sell / Watch Short, or Strong Sell.
Strong BUY markers appear when the score first reaches Strong Buy territory. Strong SELL markers appear when the score first reaches Strong Sell territory. Smaller Buy and Sell setup markers appear when the score first reaches watch-long or watch-short territory.
This tool is designed for timing context and trade planning. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee trade results.
Scoring Logic
Condition | Score
--- | ---
RSI is at or above the bull bias level | +2
RSI is at or below the bear bias level | -2
RSI crosses above the buy level | +1
RSI crosses below the sell level | -1
Stochastic K is above D and K is above 50 | +2
Stochastic K is below D and K is below 50 | -2
Stochastic K crosses above D before the sell level | +1
Stochastic K crosses below D after the buy level | -1
Stochastic crosses above the buy level | +1
Stochastic crosses below the sell level | -1
MACD is above signal and histogram is above 0 | +2
MACD is below signal and histogram is below 0 | -2
MACD bullish crossover | +1
MACD bearish crossover | -1
EMA trend filter is bullish when enabled | +1
EMA trend filter is bearish when enabled | -1
Volume confirmation is bullish when enabled | +1
Volume confirmation is bearish when enabled | -1
Decision Output
Score Range | Decision | Pane Background | Decision Table Background
--- | --- | --- | ---
>= 6 | Strong Buy | Bright green | Bright lime
3 to 5 | Buy / Watch Long | Light green | Green
-2 to 2 | Neutral / Wait | No background | Gray
-3 to -5 | Sell / Watch Short | Light maroon/red | Maroon
<= -6 | Strong Sell | Bright red | Bright red
The pane background and decision table background use the same oscillator score ranges. The pane background is more transparent so the oscillator lines remain readable.
RSI Logic
RSI Level | Meaning
--- | ---
30 | Buy threshold
45 | Bear bias threshold
55 | Bull bias threshold
70 | Sell threshold
RSI contributes bullish score when it is above the bull bias level and bearish score when it is below the bear bias level.
An RSI cross above the buy level adds a smaller bullish timing point. An RSI cross below the sell level adds a smaller bearish timing point.
Stochastic Logic
Stochastic is bullish when %K is above %D and %K is above 50.
Stochastic is bearish when %K is below %D and %K is below 50.
Stochastic Event | Meaning
--- | ---
%K crosses above %D before the sell level | Bullish timing confirmation
%K crosses below %D after the buy level | Bearish timing confirmation
Stochastic crosses above the buy level | Bullish threshold confirmation
Stochastic crosses below the sell level | Bearish threshold confirmation
MACD Logic
MACD is bullish when the MACD line is above the signal line and the histogram is positive.
MACD is bearish when the MACD line is below the signal line and the histogram is negative.
A MACD line crossover above the signal line adds a bullish timing point. A cross below the signal line adds a bearish timing point.
MACD can be normalized for display so it fits in the same oscillator pane as RSI and Stochastic. The raw MACD values remain available in the Data Window.
EMA Trend Filter Logic
When enabled, the EMA trend filter checks the fast EMA, slow EMA, and long trend EMA.
Filter State | Condition
--- | ---
Bullish | Fast EMA above slow EMA and price above long trend EMA
Bearish | Fast EMA below slow EMA and price below long trend EMA
Disabled | Does not affect the score
Volume Logic
When enabled, volume confirmation compares current volume against average volume.
Volume State | Condition
--- | ---
Bullish confirmation | Above-average volume with a bullish candle
Bearish confirmation | Above-average volume with a bearish candle
No confirmation | Normal or low-volume candle
Disabled | Does not affect the score
Visual Output
The oscillator pane can show RSI, Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, optional normalized MACD line and signal line, optional normalized MACD histogram, green or red background based on the decision score, Buy / Sell setup markers, and Strong BUY / SELL markers.
Green background means the oscillator score is bullish. Red background means the oscillator score is bearish. Stronger color appears when the score reaches strong buy or strong sell territory.
Decision Table Rows
Row | What It Shows | How To Read It
--- | --- | ---
Osc Decision | Final oscillator decision and oscillator score | Main timing summary. Strong Buy / Buy means momentum confirmations are bullish. Strong Sell / Sell means momentum confirmations are bearish. Neutral means timing is mixed.
Stoch K/D | Current Stochastic %K and %D relationship, plus both values | Bullish means %K is above %D and %K is above 50. Bearish means %K is below %D and %K is below 50. Mixed means the condition is not directional enough.
Stoch Signal | Whether Stochastic created a buy cross, sell cross, or no fresh cross | Buy Cross appears when %K crosses above %D or above the buy level. Sell Cross appears when %K crosses below %D or below the sell level. None means no fresh Stochastic cross is active.
RSI Signal | Whether RSI crossed the configured buy or sell threshold | Buy Cross appears when RSI crosses above the buy level. Sell Cross appears when RSI crosses below the sell level. None means no fresh RSI threshold cross is active.
MACD Cross | Whether MACD crossed its signal line, plus raw MACD and signal values | Bull Cross means MACD crossed above signal. Bear Cross means MACD crossed below signal. None means no fresh MACD crossover is active.
Setup | Trade-watch state produced by the oscillator score | Strong Buy and Strong Sell are the strongest timing states. Buy Watch and Sell Watch are earlier setup states. Wait means there is not enough directional agreement.
Use the table as a timing tool. It is strongest when the oscillator decision agrees with broader chart-level trend context.
Data Window Values
When enabled, the script exposes Decision Score, Decision Code, MACD Raw, MACD Signal Raw, and MACD Histogram Raw.
Code | Meaning
--- | ---
2 | Strong Buy
1 | Buy
0 | Neutral
-1 | Sell
-2 | Strong Sell
Alert Logic
The script includes alerts for Strong Buy Decision, Strong Sell Decision, Buy Setup, Sell Setup, RSI Buy Cross, RSI Sell Cross, Stochastic Buy Cross, Stochastic Sell Cross, MACD Bullish Cross, and MACD Bearish Cross.
Strong decision alerts come from the oscillator score entering strong buy or strong sell territory. Setup alerts come from the score entering watch-long or watch-short territory. Indicator cross alerts are based on their individual RSI, Stochastic, or MACD crossover conditions.
Reading The Output
This script is mainly a timing tool. Bullish output is strongest when RSI, Stochastic, MACD, trend filter, and volume all align. Bearish output is strongest when those same components align to the downside.
When used with the EMA MACD Decision Table script, the chart-level table gives broader trend context and this oscillator gives timing confirmation.
Indicator
Indicator
RSI Pattern Matcher & Forward ProjectionRSI Pattern Matcher & Forward Projection is an advanced RSI-based analysis tool
that combines historical pattern matching, statistical forward projection,
Bollinger Bands, and an EMA overlay — all applied directly on the RSI panel.
Instead of using RSI as a simple overbought/oversold indicator, this script
treats the RSI as a pattern signal. It scans hundreds of historical bars to find
past moments where RSI behavior and price direction closely matched the current
market structure, then statistically projects what RSI is most likely to do next.
### How It Works
The indicator builds a fingerprint of the current market using the last N bars
(Pattern Length), capturing:
- RSI value for each bar in the window
- Price direction per bar (rising, falling, or flat)
It then scans the full lookback window and marks a historical bar as a match when:
- Each RSI value falls within the defined tolerance (e.g. ±4 points per bar)
- At least 60% of the price direction steps align with the current pattern
Once matches are collected, the script averages what happened to RSI over the
following bars after each match. This averaged path is rendered as a step-by-step
dashed projection line extending to the right of the last bar.
Bollinger Bands (length 14, multiplier 2.0) and EMA 12 are computed on the RSI
itself — not on price. Both indicators are also extended forward by the same
projection length using linear slope extrapolation, giving a complete forward
context for the RSI forecast.
### What It Displays
RSI Line — main aqua line (standard RSI)
RSI EMA 12 — orange line tracking the short-term RSI average; crossovers
signal early momentum shifts
Bollinger Bands on RSI:
• Yellow middle band (SMA 14)
• Red upper band (overbought pressure zone)
• Green lower band (oversold pressure zone)
• Gray fill between bands
Forward Projection (dashed lines extending beyond last bar):
• RSI forecast path — averaged from historical analogs, color-coded by zone
• BB Upper extension — red dashed
• BB Lower extension — green dashed
• BB Basis extension — yellow dashed
• EMA 12 extension — orange dashed
Live RSI Label — current RSI value displayed next to the last bar,
color-coded in real time (red ≥ 70, green ≤ 30, aqua otherwise)
Forecast Label — projected RSI value shown at the end of the forward window
Info Table (top right):
• Matches found vs maximum
• Dominant directional bias (Up / Down / Flat)
• Direction distribution percentages
• Average, best-case, and worst-case price change across all matches
• Estimated RSI value N bars ahead
• Confidence score based on match count
### Confidence Score
≥ 10 matches → 90%
≥ 7 matches → 75%
≥ 5 matches → 60%
≥ 3 matches → 40%
< 3 matches → 20%
A warning is displayed on the table when fewer than 3 matches are found.
In this case, increase RSI Tolerance or Lookback to find more historical analogs.
### Inputs
RSI Period — RSI calculation length (default: 14)
RSI Source — price input for RSI (default: close)
Pattern Length — bars used to build the current pattern fingerprint (2–20, default: 3)
Projection Length — bars ahead to project all forward lines (1–20, default: 3)
RSI Tolerance — max RSI difference per bar allowed when matching (±0.5–10, default: ±4.0)
Lookback — historical bars to scan for matches (50–999, default: 500)
Max Matches — maximum historical matches to average (3–20, default: 10)
### How To Use
1. Add the indicator to any chart — it plots on a separate RSI panel
2. Check the info table for match count; if below 3, raise RSI Tolerance or Lookback
3. Read the dominant direction and confidence score for a quick bias assessment
4. Follow the dashed projection line to see where RSI is historically likely to go
5. Use the extended BB bands to anticipate whether RSI may reach overbought or
oversold territory within the projection window
6. Watch the EMA extension — if the projected RSI crosses above or below the
extended EMA, it can signal a momentum shift ahead
7. Compare the forecast RSI label against the 70 and 30 levels for reversal context
8. Use best-case and worst-case % change figures to frame risk/reward expectations
9. Higher timeframes (1H, 4H, Daily) generally produce cleaner RSI patterns
and more meaningful matches
### Best Used For
- Anticipating RSI direction before price confirms
- Identifying overbought/oversold exhaustion using historical analogs
- Spotting early momentum shifts via RSI EMA crossovers
- Using BB band position to contextualize RSI extremes
- Filtering trade entries with forward projection confluence
- Multi-layer RSI analysis combining pattern matching, bands, and trend
### Originality
This script combines four independent analytical layers into a single RSI panel:
a historical analog pattern matcher, a statistical forward projection engine,
Bollinger Bands applied to RSI (not price), and a linear slope extrapolation
system for all forward indicators. The specific combination — simultaneous RSI
and price direction fingerprinting, 60% direction alignment threshold, per-bar
averaged projection, and slope-based BB/EMA extension — represents the author's
own approach to making RSI forecasting both visual and statistically grounded.
### Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and analytical purposes only. Pattern matching
based on historical RSI behavior does not guarantee future results. Past analogs
may not repeat. Always apply proper risk management and combine this tool with
additional analysis before making any trading decisions.
Short Description:
Scans historical RSI and price direction patterns to project the most likely RSI
path forward. Includes Bollinger Bands and EMA on RSI, full forward extension of
all indicators, directional bias stats, and a confidence score. Indicator
Indicator
Strategy Forecast EngineThe Strategy Forecast Engine is a regime-based Monte Carlo forecasting tool that estimates the future return distribution of trend-following strategies across different market environments. The model identifies the current market regime, conditions forecasts on historical returns observed during comparable regimes, and generates thousands of potential future price paths using Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting return distribution is presented through percentile projections and a structured, color-coded table that provides a comprehensive assessment of the forecast.
First, the model identifies the current market regime using the selected trend-following strategy. Users can choose between a moving-average crossover strategy, a volatility-based trailing stop strategy, or a combined strategy that incorporates both approaches. Supported moving-average types include the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Simple Moving Average (SMA), Wilder’s Moving Average (RMA), and Weighted Moving Average (WMA). Supported volatility types include the Average True Range (ATR), Standard Deviation (SD), and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). By default, the model applies an asymmetric design in which conflicting signals default to bullish unless neutral regimes are enabled in the menu. Market regimes are determined as follows:
Bullish Trend Regime = (Fast MA – Slow MA) > (ATR × Trend Margin)
Bearish Trend Regime = (Fast MA – Slow MA) < –(ATR × Trend Margin)
Bullish Volatility Regime = Price > (Highest Price – (Volatility × Stop Factor))
Bearish Volatility Regime = Price < (Lowest Price + (Volatility × Stop Factor))
Bullish Combined Regime = Bullish Trend Regime and Bullish Volatility Regime
Bearish Combined Regime = Bearish Trend Regime and Bearish Volatility Regime
Once the current regime has been identified, the model collects all historical logarithmic returns that occurred during the same regime beginning from the selected start date. Only returns from the matching regime are used to generate the forecast, allowing projections to be conditioned on historically comparable market environments rather than treating all historical observations as equally relevant. If duration-adjusted forecast is enabled in the menu, the model further restricts the sample pool to returns from regimes that were at least as mature as the current regime.
The Monte Carlo simulation engine then generates thousands of possible future price paths over the selected forecast horizon. Each simulation randomly samples historical returns from the sample pool associated with the current regime and compounds them forward to generate a potential future price path. This process is repeated for the specified number of simulations to produce a broad range of possible future outcomes. The random seed controls reproducibility, ensuring that identical settings produce identical forecasts. Once all individual simulations have been completed, the resulting return distribution is summarized using percentile projections:
95% = 5% of simulations ended above this level and 95% ended below it.
75% = 25% of simulations ended above this level and 75% ended below it.
Median = 50% of simulations ended above this level and 50% ended below it.
25% = 25% of simulations ended below this level and 75% ended above it.
5% = 5% of simulations ended below this level and 95% ended above it.
The upper quartile (75%) and lower quartile (25%) define the Interquartile Range (IQR), which contains the middle 50% of all simulated outcomes and represents the central range of the projected outcome distribution. The upper and lower tail percentiles can be set to 10% (90% / 10%), 5% (95% / 5%), or 1% (99% / 1%). The default setting is 5%, which captures the middle 90% of simulated outcomes. At 10%, the range captures 80% of simulated outcomes, while at 1%, the range captures 98% of simulated outcomes. To further evaluate the risk/reward characteristics of the forecast, the model includes a built-in table with the following metrics:
Regime = Current market regime based on the selected strategy configuration.
Duration = Percentile rank of current regime duration relative to past regimes.
Forecast = Percentile rank of current duration including the forecast horizon.
Win Rate = Percentage of profitable simulations relative to total simulations.
Profit Factor = Ratio of total simulated profits to total simulated losses.
Expectancy = Average expected percentage return across all simulations.
Reward/Risk = Ratio of upper quartile return to lower quartile return.
Asymmetry = Ratio of selected upper tail return to selected lower tail return.
Skewness = Ratio of upside potential to downside risk relative to the median.
Sample Size = Number of historical returns available for the current regime.
Frequency = Percentage of historical returns belonging to the current regime.
In summary, the Strategy Forecast Engine is a comprehensive forecasting tool designed to help investors evaluate the return distribution of trend-following strategies based on the current market regime. By combining regime detection with Monte Carlo simulation, the model conditions forecasts on historical returns observed during comparable market regimes to estimate the distribution of potential outcomes and their associated risk/reward characteristics. While the model provides valuable insight into historical return patterns, investors should remain mindful that historical market behavior may not necessarily persist under future market conditions. Indicator
Nasan Stretch - Velocity Quadrant Plot# Stretch/Velocity Quadrant Plot
The **Stretch/Velocity Quadrant Plot** is a multi-asset market regime and momentum tool designed to track up to **11 symbols simultaneously**.
By plotting **Velocity** against **Stretch**, the indicator shows where each asset sits within the lifecycle of a trend and how it is moving between expansion, exhaustion, reversal, and recovery phases.
It is especially useful for:
* comparing several stocks on one chart,
* identifying leadership and rotation,
* spotting early momentum changes,
* distinguishing strong trends from overextended moves,
* and evaluating how likely a stock is to remain in or leave its current market phase.
## Core Concept
The model combines short-, medium-, and long-term behavior using:
* 13-period EMA
* 21-period EMA
* 34-period EMA
The three horizons are blended using customizable weights.
All values are normalized by ATR, allowing stocks with very different prices and volatility levels to be compared on the same scale.
## Velocity — X-Axis
Velocity measures the rate of change of the three EMAs.
Each EMA uses a separate lookback:
* EMA 13 velocity over 8 bars
* EMA 21 velocity over 13 bars
* EMA 34 velocity over 21 bars
The result represents the speed and direction of the underlying trend.
* Positive Velocity: trend momentum is improving
* Negative Velocity: trend momentum is weakening
## Stretch — Y-Axis
Stretch measures how far price has moved away from its EMA structure.
It is calculated as the ATR-normalized distance between price and the 13-, 21-, and 34-period EMAs.
* Positive Stretch: price is trading above its trend structure
* Negative Stretch: price is trading below its trend structure
* Larger absolute values: price is farther from equilibrium
## The Four Market Quadrants
### Q1 — Bullish Expansion
**Positive Velocity / Positive Stretch**
The asset is above its trend structure and momentum is accelerating.
This is typically associated with:
* strong uptrends,
* momentum continuation,
* leadership,
* and expanding price strength.
A stock moving from Q4 into Q1 may represent a developing recovery turning into a confirmed expansion phase.
### Q2 — Bearish Reversion
**Negative Velocity / Positive Stretch**
Price remains above its trend structure, but momentum is weakening.
This can indicate:
* an aging uptrend,
* loss of momentum,
* consolidation,
* profit-taking,
* or the beginning of a pullback.
Stocks that are highly stretched in Q1 and begin rotating into Q2 may be entering an exhaustion phase.
### Q3 — Bearish Expansion
**Negative Velocity / Negative Stretch**
Price is below its trend structure and downside momentum is increasing.
This is typically associated with:
* established downtrends,
* accelerating weakness,
* distribution,
* and bearish continuation.
### Q4 — Bullish Reversion
**Positive Velocity / Negative Stretch**
Price remains below its trend structure, but momentum has turned positive.
This can signal:
* improving conditions,
* mean reversion,
* early recovery,
* or a potential transition back into bullish expansion.
A rotation from Q4 into Q1 is one of the most important bullish transitions on the chart.
## Multi-Asset Tracking
The indicator supports up to **11 editable symbols**.
Each asset is displayed with:
* its own color,
* a historical trail,
* a current-position marker,
* and an automatically generated ticker label.
This makes it easy to compare:
* relative trend strength,
* market rotation,
* momentum leadership,
* and differences in trend maturity.
## Trailing Paths
Each ticker includes a configurable historical trail.
The trail shows how the asset arrived at its current position and whether it is:
* accelerating,
* slowing,
* rotating,
* reversing,
* or moving sideways near a quadrant boundary.
The direction of the trail is often as important as the current quadrant.
## True Range Variability Clouds
Optional ribbons are drawn around each asset’s trail using:
The calculation is blended over the same 8-, 13-, and 21-bar horizons used by the Velocity model.
Cloud thickness changes at every point along the trail:
* Narrow cloud: volatility is stable and movement is more orderly
* Wide cloud: volatility is inconsistent, noisy, or unstable
This provides an additional layer of information beyond direction and momentum.
The center trail shows where the asset is moving.
The surrounding cloud shows how reliable or disorderly that movement has been.
## Position-Sensitive Quadrant Statistics
A dedicated statistics table can be assigned to one requested ticker.
The table displays:
* current quadrant,
* current uninterrupted stay,
* average historical duration in each quadrant,
* number of completed quadrant runs,
* current Velocity and Stretch values,
* and transition probabilities over several forward horizons.
The transition model does not rely only on the quadrant name.
Each quadrant is divided into a 3 × 3 internal grid based on:
* Velocity magnitude: Low, Medium, or High
* Stretch magnitude: Low, Medium, or High
This creates 36 possible origin states:
The model therefore estimates probabilities such as:
> From Q1 with High Velocity and Medium Stretch, what is the probability of being in Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4 after 5, 10, 15, or 21 bars?
This provides a more detailed transition model than treating every point inside the same quadrant as identical.
## Customizable Smoothing
The Velocity, Stretch, and cloud calculations can be smoothed using:
* EMA
* RMA
* SMA
* WMA
* or no smoothing
An optional second smoothing pass is also available for users who prefer slower, cleaner trails.
## How to Use the Indicator
The indicator is best used to evaluate trend rotation rather than as a standalone buy or sell signal.
Examples:
* Multiple stocks rotating from Q4 into Q1 may indicate broad market recovery.
* A leader remaining in Q1 with a narrow cloud may indicate persistent, orderly momentum.
* A highly stretched stock in Q1 rotating toward Q2 may be losing momentum.
* A stock in Q4 with rising Velocity may be developing an early recovery setup.
* A widening cloud may warn that the apparent move is becoming less stable.
* A stock near a quadrant boundary may be more likely to switch states than one deep inside a quadrant.
The strongest interpretation comes from combining:
* current quadrant,
* trail direction,
* cloud width,
* distance from the quadrant boundaries,
* and the transition-probability table.
## Important Note
This indicator is intended as a visual and statistical market-analysis tool.
It does not predict future prices with certainty and should be used together with:
* trend confirmation,
* volume,
* support and resistance,
* fundamentals,
* earnings risk,
* and position-sizing rules.
Indicator
Indicator
OPEX Zone FrameworkOPEX Zone Framework
Description:
A weekly options expiration framework for QQQ that translates dealer gamma positioning into five actionable price zones. Updated every Sunday. Personally, I use Barchart's Max Pain and Gamma Exposure data. (This code is neither endorsed by Barchart, nor am I, in any way affiliated with them) Works on all timeframes — zone logic is governed by daily closes only, never intraday wicks.
Five zones:
Extended (above Call Res 3) — no edge, dealers selling every rally
Bullish (Pin → Call Res 3) — long bias, three upside targets labeled
Buy Dip (Gamma Flip → Pin) — dip entries, stop below gamma flip
Stand Aside (Put Floor → Gamma Flip) — no man's land, wait for daily close
Short (below Put Floor on daily close) — short framework active, target deep support
Eight inputs (update every Sunday):
Expiry date · Pin/Max Pain · Gamma Flip · Put Floor · Deep Support · Call Resistance 1/2/3
Alerts included:
· Daily close below gamma flip
· Daily close below put floor
· Daily close reclaims gamma flip
· Daily close above pin
Auto-disables after expiry Friday close with a stale notice. Applicable to any liquid ETF with options data — SPY gives the ES read using the same workflow.
My data source: Barchart Premier — Max Pain & Vol Skew (OI, not volume) + Gamma Exposure by expiry date. Indicator
Guapoxtrades - Risk PanelGuapoxTrades Risk Panel™
Lot Size Calculator • Risk Management • Trade Planning Framework
The GuapoxTrades Risk Panel™ is a professional risk-management calculator designed to help traders calculate position size, potential risk, expected reward, commission impact, and drawdown exposure directly on the chart.
Instead of manually calculating lot size outside of PulseWire, traders can input their account size, risk percentage, stop distance, reward target, commission estimate, and drawdown limit to receive a structured risk breakdown in real time.
The goal is simple:
Know the risk before entering the trade.
Core Features:
Account size input
Risk percentage calculator
Stop-distance-based lot sizing
Dynamic forex pip value engine
Suggested lot size output
Gross reward calculation
Estimated commission cost
Net reward after commission
Risk-to-reward target display
Break-even win-rate calculation
Max daily drawdown exposure
Max trades before drawdown limit
Valid / invalid risk status
Movable risk panel
Adjustable panel transparency
Why This Indicator Was Built
Many traders lose consistency not because they cannot find setups, but because they fail to properly size positions before entering the market.
The GuapoxTrades Risk Panel™ was created to help traders slow down and answer important questions before execution:
How much am I risking?
What lot size matches my risk plan?
What is the realistic reward?
How much does commission reduce the outcome?
What win rate do I need to break even?
How many losses would push me near my drawdown limit?
This turns risk management into a visible part of the trading process.
Visual Design Notice
This indicator was designed, tested, and optimized primarily for dark-theme chart backgrounds.
The panel colors, text contrast, and transparency settings were developed in a dark-mode trading environment for clean readability and minimal chart obstruction.
Users using light-theme charts may customize the appearance through:
Settings → Risk Panel Transparency
Settings → Risk Panel Position
Disclaimer - Educational Use Only.
GuapoxTrades Risk Panel™ is provided solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not provide financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or buy/sell recommendations.
Lot size calculations, pip value estimates, commission estimates, drawdown projections, reward targets, and break-even win-rate calculations are based on user-provided inputs and may not reflect actual broker execution, spread, slippage, swap fees, margin requirements, or account-specific conditions.
Trading forex, futures, stocks, crypto, and leveraged financial products involves substantial risk and may result in loss of capital.
Users are solely responsible for verifying all calculations with their broker and managing their own trading decisions, risk exposure, and financial outcomes.
© GuapoxTrades. All Rights Reserved. Indicator
