Sector Tag (ETF Mapper)The Sector Tag (ETF Mapper) is a PulseWire utility designed to instantly identify the most relevant sector ETF for a stock. The indicator displays the corresponding sector directly on the chart, helping traders evaluate sector alignment, market context, and relative strength opportunities.
Coverage
The current database contains approximately 1,300+ US-listed stocks, including:
S&P 500 constituents
Nasdaq 100 constituents
Russell 2000 constituents
Additional actively traded swing and day trading stocks
High-volume growth, momentum, and earnings candidates
The ticker database is manually curated and can be expanded at any time.
Sector Classification
Stocks are mapped to the following ETFs:
XLK – Technology
XLF – Financials
XLV – Health Care
XLY – Consumer Discretionary
XLP – Consumer Staples
XLI – Industrials
XLE – Energy
XLU – Utilities
XLB – Materials
XLC – Communication Services
XLRE – Real Estate
For selected small-cap stocks where a sector classification adds limited value, an IWM (Russell 2000) designation may be used instead.
Why Use It for Day Trading?
Sector participation is often a major driver of intraday performance.
Examples:
A stock gapping up while its sector ETF is also strong has a higher probability of follow-through.
Multiple stocks from the same sector moving together can indicate institutional sector rotation.
Gap scanners frequently produce stocks from leading sectors. Knowing the sector immediately provides valuable context.
The indicator helps traders quickly answer:
Is this stock moving with its sector?
Is the sector leading or lagging the market?
Are multiple opportunities coming from the same industry group?
Why Use It for Swing Trading?
Swing traders often focus on stocks that are aligned with:
Sector strength
Market direction
Institutional money flow
A bullish setup in a strong sector generally has a higher probability than the same setup in a weak sector.
The Sector Tag allows traders to:
Compare stocks against their sector ETF
Monitor sector rotation
Build watchlists around leading sectors
Avoid concentration risk by unintentionally taking multiple positions within the same sector
Typical Workflow
Gap Scanner
Run a pre-market gap scan.
Open the stock chart.
Instantly see the sector ETF.
Compare the stock to its sector ETF.
Prioritize stocks showing both stock-specific and sector-wide strength.
Swing Trading
Identify technical setups.
Check sector alignment.
Favor setups in sectors already showing momentum.
Reduce exposure to sectors showing relative weakness.
Performance and Design
The indicator uses a compressed sector-mapping architecture optimized for PulseWire Pine Script limitations.
Benefits:
Fast execution
Low resource usage
Large ticker coverage
Easy future expansion
No external data dependencies
Future Expansion
The ticker database is designed to be continuously updated.
Additional stocks, sectors, industry groups, or custom ETF mappings can be added without changing the core functionality of the indicator.
The goal is to provide a lightweight but highly practical tool that adds immediate market context to every chart. Indicator
Bitcoin Power Law FloorBitcoin Power Law Floor
This indicator plots a long-term Bitcoin Power Law Floor based on the empirical Bitcoin power-law framework associated with Giovanni Santostasi, Harold Christopher Burger, Andrei Perrenod, Bitcoin Observatory, and related Bitcoin power-law research.
The model uses days since Bitcoin’s genesis block as the time variable:
Trend(t) = 10^-16.493 × t^5.688
Floor(t) = Trend(t) × 10^-0.42
The default floor offset in this script is -0.42. For the commonly referenced ~0.40× trend floor, set “Floor log10 offset vs trend” to -0.40.
The plotted floor is intended to represent a historically observed lower-bound region in Bitcoin’s long-term price evolution. It is not a guarantee, not a prediction, and not a trading signal by itself. The model should be used as a long-term reference framework, ideally on BTCUSD or BTCUSDT charts with logarithmic price scale enabled.
The script includes:
- Bitcoin Power Law Floor plot
- Optional central power-law trend line
- Optional future floor projection
- Projection horizons of 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 years
Sources and further reading:
Bitcoin Observatory — BTC Power Law Floor:
btcpowerlaw.nl
Giovanni Santostasi — The Bitcoin Power Law Theory:
giovannisantostasi.medium.com
Scientific Bitcoin Institute:
scientificbitcoininstitute.org
Special thanks to the scientists, researchers, explorers, data analysts, builders, educators, and content writers who study, test, explain, challenge, and share Bitcoin power-law models. This script exists because of the open work of people exploring Bitcoin with curiosity, rigor, and imagination.
This indicator is for educational and research purposes only. It is not financial advice. Historical model fit does not guarantee future performance. Indicator
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RSI Trap [XWiseTrade]RSI Trap
Most traders read RSI the textbook way: above 70 means overbought, expect a pullback; below 30 means oversold, expect a bounce. RSI Trap is built on the opposite read — and on the one thing the textbook ignores: volume.
The idea
When RSI is overbought and price keeps making new highs, but volume is fading, the conventional trader shorts the "overbought" market. They get trapped. Here's why: if price advances to new highs without volume, there is no one selling into it — no resistance, no defense above. A market that climbs on thin volume isn't exhausted; it's meeting no opposition, and tends to keep going. The trap is sprung on everyone who faded the extreme.
The mirror applies to the downside: oversold, new lows, fading volume — no buyers stepping in, no support below — and the dip-buyers get trapped.
What it shows
Bull Trap — overbought + new highs + fading volume → no resistance above, uptrend likely continues (traps shorts)
Bear Trap — oversold + new lows + fading volume → no support below, downtrend likely continues (traps dip-buyers)
Labels on the candle, with a cooldown to avoid clustering
Why three conditions, not one
RSI alone fires on every extreme and stays pinned in trends — pure noise.
This requires the extreme to coincide with (a) price still breaking to new highs/lows and (b) contracting volume, isolating the specific case where an "overbought/oversold" reading actually signals continuation rather than reversal.
Inputs
RSI length, overbought/oversold levels, volume average length, low-volume fraction, new-high/low lookback, cooldown.
Built-in alerts both directions. These are descriptive market-structure signals for discretionary use, not buy/sell recommendations.
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Ict Mmxm Frameworkict mmxm framework is a session-based market structure tool designed to organize intraday price delivery around fpi zones, macro windows, order blocks, imbalances, breakaway gap order blocks, opening ranges, and session range structure.
The script is built to help traders study how price behaves during the asian, london, new york morning, lunch, and new york afternoon sessions. It separates each major session into its own visual components so the user can compare pre-session ranges, active session ranges, macro windows, fpi areas, imbalance areas, order block zones, breakaway gap order blocks, and opening range levels.
Main components:
* pre-asian range from 7:00 pm to 9:00 pm new york time
* asian range from 9:00 pm to 12:00 am new york time
* asian macro windows at 6:50 pm to 7:10 pm, 8:50 pm to 9:10 pm, and 12:50 am to 1:10 am
* pre-london range from 2:00 am to 3:00 am new york time
* london range from 3:00 am to 5:00 am new york time
* london macro windows at 1:50 am to 2:10 am, 2:50 am to 3:10 am, and 4:50 am to 5:10 am
* new york morning, lunch, and afternoon session structure
* fpi visualization for asian, london, and new york sessions
* separate fpi detection for asian and london macro windows
* selected-bias imbalance mapping
* selected-bias order block mapping
* breakaway gap order block mapping
* high, midpoint, and low price labels for imbalance, order block, and breakaway gap order block zones
* opening range levels for the new york morning and afternoon sessions
* configurable session visibility and visual settings
The asian and london sections include range boxes, high and low references, midpoint references, macro windows, fpi areas, selected-bias imbalance zones, selected-bias order block zones, and breakaway gap order block context. These components are intended to help traders compare how price develops from one session into the next.
The selected expected bias controls how the main imbalance and order block zones are emphasized. When bearish bias is selected, the framework focuses on the highest relevant bullish order block and premium-side imbalance context. When bullish bias is selected, the framework focuses on the lowest relevant bearish order block and discount-side imbalance context.
The order block, imbalance, and breakaway gap order block zones use soft transparent colors based on the selected expected bias. Bearish bias uses red-toned zones, while bullish bias uses green-toned zones. This is intended to keep the chart visually aligned with the selected directional framework.
The purpose of this script is to provide a structured visual framework for studying session-based delivery, liquidity reference points, fpi behavior, macro timing, order blocks, imbalances, breakaway gap order blocks, and projected levels. It is intended for market context, discretionary planning, and research.
This script does not generate guaranteed trade signals, does not predict future price movement, and does not provide financial advice. It should be used together with independent analysis and proper risk management.
Asian Session:
London Session:
Ny Session:
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PO3 Mmxm PO3 Mmxm is a range-mapping and projection tool built around Power of 3 style price-delivery logic.
The script allows traders to select a PO3 value, such as 27, 81, 243, 729, and higher expansion values, then builds a source range and forward projection boxes from that selected range. The tool is designed to help study how price may expand from a defined dealing range and how projected levels can align with midpoint, premium, discount, rebalance, and range-extreme areas.
Main features:
* Selectable PO3 range values
* Bullish or bearish session bias setting
* Source range projection logic
* Optional half-range projection mode
* Adjustable source range shifting
* Forward projection boxes
* Source range subdivisions using quarter or eighth levels
* Optional range high and range low zones
* Optional rebalance zones using configurable premium and discount percentages
* Optional all-level GIP zone display
* Table showing selected PO3 value, projection reference levels, target, and range extreme
* Configurable session start and projection end time
The range high and range low zones are calculated from the selected PO3 framework and projected range structure. Rebalance zones are drawn from user-defined percentage bands inside the projection boxes, allowing traders to compare current price location against premium, discount, and equilibrium-style areas.
This script is intended as a visual research and chart-mapping tool. It does not predict future price movement, does not guarantee trade outcomes, and should be used together with independent market analysis and risk management.
GIP Levels Example(S/R)
Rebalance Levels Example (Rebalance/Retracement)
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SmartLevels Pro**SmartLevels Pro — HTF H/L, VWAP & Trade Box with Trend Strength**
SmartLevels Pro is a comprehensive all-in-one overlay indicator designed for active traders who need clean, high-timeframe structure, dynamic trade management, and real-time trend confirmation — all on a single chart.
**Higher Timeframe Levels**
Automatically plots the previous High and Low for the Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Yearly timeframes using `request.security()` with no repainting. Each timeframe is color-coded for instant visual clarity:
- Blue — Daily
- Purple — Weekly
- Orange — Monthly
- Red — Yearly
**VWAP**
Session Volume Weighted Average Price plotted in real time. Acts as the primary institutional reference level and feeds directly into the Trend Strength engine.
**Dynamic Trade Box**
Enable the Trade Box from settings to instantly visualize your trade plan on the chart. Set your Profit Target and Stop Loss in points, choose Long or Short direction, and the indicator draws two color-coded boxes — green for your target zone, red for your stop zone — anchored to your entry price and extending forward with every new bar. The target label displays your live Risk-to-Reward ratio automatically.
**Trend Strength Label**
A real-time label appears at the right edge of the chart scoring three confluence factors:
- Price position relative to VWAP
- Fast EMA vs Slow EMA cross (customizable lengths)
- RSI above or below 50
The label displays **Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral** direction, reinforced by ADX to distinguish **Strong** from **Weak** trend conditions. Live RSI and ADX values are shown so you always know exactly where momentum stands.
** Built-In Alerts**
Six alert conditions included:
- VWAP cross up / down
- EMA bullish / bearish cross
- Strong Bull / Bear trend confluence (ADX + multi-factor)
**Performance Optimized**
Built with `calc_on_every_tick = false` for clean bar-close calculations. All higher timeframe data is pulled efficiently via `request.security()` to minimize chart load.
*Designed for futures, forex, and equities traders. Ideal for prop firm evaluation accounts where precision entries and disciplined trade management are critical.* Indicator
AetherEdge - Volatility Forecast🖊️ Overview
ATR shows yesterday's volatility; AE-VOL forecasts the next move and states the uncertainty honestly. An adaptive EWMA variance model estimates forward volatility, drawn on price as a conformal-calibrated expected-range envelope, alongside a volatility regime and a vol-targeted position-size readout.
🔶 Key Features
Adaptive vol forecast — the EWMA decay λ is learned online and reacts to volatility clustering
Calibrated range envelope — the N-bar range is statistically calibrated to hit a target coverage
Forward cone — projects the forecast range into the future
Volatility regime — low/normal/high with expanding ↑ / contracting ↓
Expected move — next-bar ±% and N-bar ±%
Vol-targeted sizing — a multiple that shrinks when forecast vol is high, grows when low
Alerts on regime change; bar-close updates — no repaint
🧠 Technical Architecture
Vol model (adaptive EWMA): h_t = λ·h_{t-1} + (1-λ)·r² (RiskMetrics — a GARCH(1,1) special case with ω≈0; reactivity = 1-λ, persistence = λ). The single decay λ is learned online by quasi-likelihood (QLIKE) with a recursive derivative. A full 3-parameter GARCH has a flat, ill-conditioned likelihood that single-pass SGD won't recover, so AE-VOL adapts one well-conditioned parameter — robust and honest. Returns are in % for numerical stability.
Calibration (split-conformal): the forecast is wrapped in a distribution-free band — the (1-α) quantile of realized standardized moves rescales the envelope so coverage matches the target empirically (fat tails included). No lookahead: the standardizer is the forecast made N bars ago.
Sizing: multiple = clamp(target vol / forecast vol, min, max).
Honest scope: an EWMA variance recursion + one online-adapted parameter + nonparametric conformal calibration (this tool uses no RL). Not deep learning, not a guarantee.
⚙️ Recommended Settings & Tuning Guide (crypto 15m–4H)
Key parameters: decay learning rate, initial λ, horizon N, band significance (1-α), calibration window, target per-bar vol %.
Initial λ ≈ 0.94 is standard; it auto-adjusts (higher-vol assets converge to lower λ = more reactive)
N is how far ahead you care about; 5–20 bars for 15m–1H
Calibration window ≈ 200; longer is steadier, shorter tracks the recent regime
Target vol % is the per-bar vol you want per position; 0.5–1.5% for crypto 15m–1H
Band significance defaults to 0.90 (10% expected outside); the HUD shows realized coverage
💡 How to Use in Practice
Use the range envelope for take-profit/stop or range judgment (outside the band = statistically unusual)
Regime HIGH favors breakout/trend; LOW (squeeze) flags reversal/range setups
Use the size multiple for vol-targeted money management (auto-smaller in high vol)
The closer coverage is to target, the more trustworthy the band; if it drifts, adjust N or the window
Combine with AE-BPE (breakout probability) or AE-AVP (volume profile) to layer regime × level
⚠️ Important Notes
Needs a learning period (warmup); λ re-learns on timeframe/parameter change
The envelope is a probabilistic range, not a guarantee that price stays inside
The vol forecast gives magnitude, not direction
Probability, not a guarantee — always do your own due diligence and use risk management
🚨 Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. No method guarantees future profits; past performance does not indicate future results, and trading carries the risk of loss. All decisions are your own — use proper validation and disciplined risk management. Indicator
CTZ BTC ULTIMATE CYCLE [Fused+Simplified]
**CTZ BTC ULTIMATE CYCLE v3 — Description & How to Trade**
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**WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES**
CTZ BTC Ultimate Cycle v3 tracks Bitcoin's four natural market cycles simultaneously — the Daily Cycle Low (DCL), Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL), Yearly Cycle Low (YCL), and Four-Year Cycle Low (4YCL). Every BTC rally and correction follows rhythmic, repeating patterns. This script identifies those patterns in real time, marks where you currently are inside each cycle, projects where the next low is likely to land, and rates the quality of every signal with a confidence score.
Built on the Cycle Theory methodology (Loukas / CTZ framework), fused and simplified into a single overlay with one master sensitivity control instead of 20+ raw inputs.
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**THE FOUR CYCLES**
🟢 DCL — Daily Cycle Low (~20–30 bars)
The smallest repeating rhythm. Used for short-term entry timing. Buy near the expected low, exit toward the subsequent cycle high.
🔵 ICL — Intermediate Cycle Low (~60–80 bars)
The bread-and-butter swing cycle. Contains 2–4 DCLs. Entries near an ICL low typically produce 20–50% moves before the next ICL arrives.
🟡 YCL — Yearly Cycle Low (~250–365 bars)
The annual rhythm. Contains 3–5 ICLs. YCL lows are major accumulation zones — deeper drawdowns that shake out weak hands before sustained runs.
🟣 4YCL — Four-Year Cycle Low (~900–1458 bars)
Bitcoin's dominant macro cycle, aligned with the halving cadence. A confirmed 4YCL is the highest-conviction long entry the indicator produces.
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**WHAT YOU SEE ON THE CHART**
• Cycle low labels — DCL / ICL / YCL / 4YCL printed below each confirmed pivot, with a star rating (★★★★★) showing signal confidence
• Confidence stars — 1 to 5 stars based on RSI divergence, MACD divergence, above-average volume, cycle regularity, and right translation
• Projection boxes — shaded zones to the right showing the expected timing and price range of the next DCL and ICL low
• Invalidation lines — dotted lines at the prior cycle low price (DCL INV / ICL INV). A daily close below these levels means the cycle count has failed
• Translation label — LEFT / MID / RIGHT showing where the cycle high printed relative to the midpoint. Right = bullish. Left = bearish
• MA Breakout — a 10-bar MA re-cross confirmation after price dips below it. Confirms the cycle low is likely in
• ⚡ Cycle Sync — when a projected DCL and ICL converge within ±4 bars. These aligned lows tend to produce stronger reversals
• ⛔ Cycle Fail — printed in bull markets when a new low undercuts the prior cycle low (a genuine warning). In bear markets the same event prints a muted "Bear ↓" label instead — because undercutting is expected behaviour in a downtrend
• Status label — plain-English line on the chart: current cycle day, countdown to next low, translation, MA status, and zone alerts
• Dashboard (top right) — 3 sections: WHERE ARE WE (progress bars for all four cycles), WHAT TO WATCH (countdowns, zones, invalidation levels, sync), SIGNAL QUALITY (stars, divergence, regularity, failure risk)
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**CYCLE HEALTH TRAFFIC LIGHT**
The very first thing in the dashboard is a single traffic light — the overall Cycle Health.
🟢 HEALTHY — Right-translated, MA confirmed, no failure risk. Trend is with you.
🟡 NEUTRAL — Mixed signals or approaching a timing window. Reduce size, watch closely.
🔴 CAUTION — Left-translated, overdue cycle, or price near the invalidation level. Be defensive.
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**HOW TO TRADE IT**
Step 1 — Check the Regime
Read the Regime row in the dashboard. BULL = cycle failures are meaningful warnings. BEAR = lower lows are normal, don't buy Bear ↓ labels expecting a reversal.
Step 2 — Read the bigger cycles first
Check YCL and 4YCL progress. If either is overdue (progress bar over 100%, shown in red), a major low may be forming. Don't trade DCLs aggressively against an overdue YCL.
Step 3 — Wait for the projection zone
The dashboard shows ⚡ IN ZONE when price enters the expected timing window. This is not a buy signal on its own — it means the low could arrive now. Reduce size and start watching for confirmation.
Step 4 — Confirm with MA Breakout + stars
Once a cycle low label prints, wait for the 10-MA re-cross (dashboard shows ✓ MA Break). Only trade 4–5 star setups at ICL or YCL timeframes for highest-probability entries.
Step 5 — Place your stop below the invalidation line
The DCL INV and ICL INV dotted lines mark the price level that must hold. A daily close below either line means the cycle count is invalid — exit the trade.
Step 6 — Exit into the next projected high
Take partial profits when cycle progress approaches 80–90% of the expected length. Full exit before an ICL is due if translation is shifting left or a ⛔ Fail label appears on a smaller cycle within the current run.
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**SETTINGS**
Sensitivity — Low / Medium / High
• Low: fewer signals, stronger pivots only. Best for clean, rare setups.
• Medium (default): balanced. Works well on the daily BTC chart.
• High: catches more lows including early ones. More signals, more noise.
Individual cycle toggles let you show/hide DCL, ICL, YCL, and 4YCL independently. Colours, alerts, projection boxes, the phase ribbon, and the status label are all separately toggleable.
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**ALERTS INCLUDED**
• High-conviction DCL (RSI + MACD divergence confirmed)
• Cycle failure (bull market context only)
• Cycle sync imminent (DCL + ICL converging)
• Price entering projection zone
• MA breakout confirmed
• Webhook-ready alertconditions for DCL / ICL / YCL / 4YCL detection
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**RECOMMENDED TIMEFRAME**
Daily chart, BTCUSD or BTCUSDT. The cycle lengths are calibrated specifically for Bitcoin's daily rhythm. Lower timeframes will produce noise; weekly is too slow to catch DCLs meaningfully.
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**COMMON MISTAKES**
✖ Buying a Bear ↓ label as if it were a bullish entry — it is an expected continuation, not a reversal
✖ Entering before the MA breakout is confirmed — the low may not be in yet
✖ Trading DCLs when Cycle Health is red — you are fighting the dominant trend
✖ Holding through an ICL when translation has already shifted left — the cycle is weakening and lower lows are likely Indicator
MACD RSI Momentum Confluence[XWiseTrade]MACD RSI Momentum Confluence
This indicator generates Bull/Bear signals only when a MACD signal-line cross is confirmed by two independent momentum conditions, rather than firing on the cross alone. The goal is to reduce the false crosses that a plain MACD+RSI combination produces in ranging markets.
Why these components are combined
A MACD cross marks a potential shift in momentum, but on its own it triggers frequently during choppy, directionless price action. RSI relative to its midline is a common trend filter, but a value sitting just above or below 50 says little about whether momentum is actually building. Used separately, each gives signals the other would reject. This script requires them to agree and to be accelerating in the same direction.
How the components work together
A signal requires three conditions to align on the same bar:
Trigger — MACD line crosses its signal line (up for Bull, down for Bear).
Momentum confirmation — the MACD histogram is expanding in the cross direction, so flat or contracting crosses (typical of chop) are filtered out.
Direction confirmation — RSI is on the correct side of its midline and moving toward the signal direction over a configurable lookback, not merely resting there.
A cooldown prevents clustered repeat signals after a trigger.
How to use it
Add it to any chart and timeframe. "Bull Cross" / "Bear Cross" labels mark confirmed signals; alerts are available for both. The histogram-expansion filter and RSI slope lookback are adjustable, letting you tighten the filter on lower timeframes or loosen it on higher ones. These are descriptive signals for discretionary use, not buy/sell recommendations.
Inputs: RSI length & midline, RSI slope lookback, MACD fast/slow/signal, histogram-expansion toggle, signal cooldown. Indicator
Seasonal Radar (chiefwils0n)⚪️ Seasonal Radar — Monthly / Daily / Hourly
Three seasonality radars on one pane, each plotting the same metric — the percentage of periods that closed up — across a different cyclical bucket:
Monthly — by month of the year (Jan–Dec)
Day of week — by weekday, sized to whatever the symbol actually trades
Hour of day — by hour, pulled from intraday data
Reading outward from the center means a bucket closed up more often; a spoke pulled toward the middle means it closed up less often. At a glance you can see which months, weekdays, and hours have historically leaned bullish for the symbol on your chart.
Run this on a Daily chart. The indicator will prompt you if it's loaded on any other timeframe. The monthly radar samples a monthly context, the day-of-week radar counts the chart's own daily bars, and the hour-of-day radar reads 60-minute bars. Empty buckets — weekends for equities, off-session hours — are dropped automatically, so each radar only shows spokes for periods that have data.
⚪️ Inputs
Monthly start year — where the month-of-year count begins. Day and hour radars use all available history (note: PulseWire limits how far back intraday history goes).
Web width (bars) — horizontal size of each radar. Pine can't read the pane's pixel aspect ratio, so nudge this until the rings look circular.
Axis scaling — choose how the radial axis is fit:
Auto (per radar) — each web fits its own data range; best when month, day, and hour sit in different bands.
Auto (shared) — one range across all three so levels are directly comparable side by side.
Manual — fixed min (center) and max (outer ring).
Ring step % — spacing of the concentric gridlines.
Colors — plot line, fill, and grid/spokes.
⚪️ Notes
This is a descriptive, historical tool — it summarizes how often price has closed up in each bucket over the available sample. It is not predictive and makes no forward-looking claim. Smaller samples (especially limited intraday history) produce noisier readings, so weight the monthly and daily radars more heavily than the hourly one on symbols with shallow data. Indicator
IOFI Elite Options Engine v4 (Realtime Execution)Institutional Engine is an advanced market-structure and order-flow based indicator designed to help traders identify high-probability trading opportunities in stocks, indices, futures, and options. The indicator combines multiple institutional trading concepts into a single framework, including trend detection, liquidity zones, momentum analysis, breakout validation, support and resistance mapping, and smart money activity tracking.
Key Features
✅ Institutional Trend Detection
✅ Smart Money Entry & Exit Signals
✅ Dynamic Support & Resistance Levels
✅ Liquidity Grab Identification
✅ Breakout & Reversal Confirmation
✅ Momentum Strength Analysis
✅ Intraday, Swing & Positional Trading Support
✅ Suitable for Stocks, Futures & Options Markets Indicator
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IV Probability - OVNThis indicator builds an "implied move" box over each overnight (ETH) session by taking the prior day's volatility-index close, converting it to a single-day expectation, and projecting that 1σ move above and below the session open. It then subdivides each half of the box into range levels, draws standard-deviation expansion bands once price breaks out, and overlays the prior RTH session's closing VWAP with its own σ bands as a reference target.
As every completed overnight session finishes, it scores whether price reached each level, closed inside or breached the box, and after a breach returned to the box edge, midpoint, or VWAP, accumulating these outcomes over the last N sessions. The statistics table then reports the historical reach and reversion probabilities for each level, giving you an empirical read on how often the market actually fulfills or exceeds the volatility-implied overnight range.
IV is inherently forward looking, so I expect these probabilities to play out accurately over a long period of time. Indicator
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Daily Levels + EMA Clouds + ORB Arrows V2Daily Levels + EMA Clouds + ORB Arrows
This powerful intraday indicator combines key market structure levels with dynamic momentum visualization and Opening Range Breakout signals.
Key Features:
Previous Day High & Low — Solid, bold green (high) and red (low) lines for clear reference to the prior session's extremes.
Pre-Market High & Low — Lighter green/red dashed lines showing today's pre-market (4:00–9:30 ET) range.
Current Day Live High & Low (HOD/LOD) — Very light green/red dotted lines that update in real-time with the developing high and low of the current session.
EMA 9 & 20 Cloud — Plots the 9-period and 20-period Exponential Moving Averages with a filled cloud between them. The cloud turns green when EMA 9 is above EMA 20 (bullish bias) and red when below (bearish bias).
Opening Range Breakout (ORB) Arrows — Automatically detects your chosen opening range (default 30 minutes after 9:30 ET) and plots clear green ↑ arrows below candles on bullish breakouts and red ↓ arrows above candles on bearish breakouts.
Customization Options:
Toggle each level group on/off (Previous Day, Pre-Market, Current Day)
Adjust line extension length
Change EMA lengths and cloud opacity
Set custom Opening Range duration (5–120+ minutes)
Enable/disable ORB arrows and OR level plots
Best Used On:
1min, 3min, 5min, 15min charts (intraday)
US equities, futures, and forex during RTH (Regular Trading Hours)
Perfect for day traders, scalpers, and momentum traders who rely on daily levels, pre-market structure, and opening range breakouts for high-probability setups.
Time Zone: Built for America/New_York (standard US market hours). Lines and sessions automatically reset on new trading days. Indicator
Risk-Neutral Probability Cone [v1]The Risk-Neutral Probability Cone is a forward-looking volatility projection tool designed to help traders estimate probable future price ranges over a selected number of bars.
The indicator projects a probability cone from the current anchor price using a lognormal price-process framework. It plots expected path, ±1σ, ±2σ, and ±3σ forward price bands based on the selected volatility model, drift model, and projection horizon.
This is not a buy or sell signal indicator.
It is a scenario-planning, risk-management, and probability-mapping tool.
The goal is to help traders answer:
“How far could price reasonably move over my selected horizon?”
and
“Is my price target inside or outside the expected probability range?”
The indicator can be used across FX, crypto, equities, indices, commodities, futures, and other liquid markets.
WHAT THE INDICATOR DOES
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The indicator starts from an anchor price and projects a forward probability cone.
The cone is based on:
• Anchor price
• Selected volatility model
• Selected drift model
• Projection horizon
• Bars per year
• Lognormal price dynamics
• Standard deviation bands
The main output is a forward cone showing possible future price ranges.
The cone expands over time because uncertainty increases as the projection horizon becomes longer.
A short projection horizon will produce a narrower cone.
A long projection horizon will produce a wider cone.
CORE IDEA
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The indicator assumes that future price movement can be approximated using a lognormal distribution.
This is similar to the framework used in many derivatives and option-pricing models.
The projected price level is calculated using:
Expected price movement over time
plus
Volatility-adjusted standard deviation bands
The indicator then plots the following paths:
• Expected path
• +1σ and -1σ bands
• +2σ and -2σ bands
• +3σ and -3σ bands
These bands help traders visualize a probability-based forward range.
WHAT THE CONE LEVELS MEAN
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Expected Path
The expected path is the central projection line.
It reflects the selected drift model and the volatility adjustment used in the lognormal framework.
It should not be treated as a forecast.
It is a model-based expected reference path.
1σ Cone
The ±1σ cone shows the normal expected range around the projected path.
This is the most practical zone for ordinary price movement.
If price remains inside the 1σ cone, it is generally moving within a normal volatility-adjusted range.
2σ Cone
The ±2σ cone shows a more extended move.
Price moving toward or beyond the 2σ cone suggests a larger-than-normal move relative to the selected volatility model.
This may indicate:
• Momentum expansion
• Event-driven repricing
• Trend acceleration
• Liquidity shock
• Mispriced volatility assumption
3σ Cone
The ±3σ cone shows an extreme move zone.
This is useful for stress testing, event-risk planning, and identifying unusually large price moves.
A move toward the 3σ cone should not automatically be treated as a reversal signal.
Strong markets can remain outside expected ranges when volatility expands or when the original volatility input becomes stale.
MAIN COMPONENTS
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1. Anchor Price
The anchor price is the starting point of the probability cone.
The script supports four anchor modes:
• Close
• Manual
• EMA
• VWAP
Close uses the latest closing price.
Manual allows the trader to enter a specific price level.
EMA uses a moving average as the anchor.
VWAP uses volume-weighted average price as the anchor.
For live projection, Close is usually the easiest setting.
For scenario planning, Manual is useful because it allows the trader to anchor the cone from a specific entry price, event level, or key market level.
2. Projection Horizon
The projection horizon determines how far into the future the cone extends.
It is measured in bars.
For example:
• On a 1-hour chart, 24 bars means approximately 24 trading hours
• On a daily chart, 20 bars means approximately 20 trading days
• On a 5-minute chart, 48 bars means approximately 4 trading hours
The longer the horizon, the wider the cone becomes.
3. Cone Drawing Step
Cone Drawing Step controls how frequently the cone lines are drawn.
A smaller step makes the cone smoother.
A larger step makes the cone lighter and less visually crowded.
For shorter horizons, a smaller step can be used.
For longer horizons, a larger step can help keep the chart clean.
4. Volatility Model
The indicator includes three volatility model options:
• Realized Volatility
• ATR Proxy
• Composite
Realized Volatility uses log returns and rolling standard deviation.
ATR Proxy uses average true range as a percentage of price.
Composite blends realized volatility and ATR volatility.
Realized Volatility is more statistically direct.
ATR Proxy is more sensitive to intrabar range.
Composite is often the most practical default because it captures both close-to-close movement and range-based movement.
5. Drift Model
The indicator includes three drift models:
• Risk-Neutral
• Zero Drift
• Historical Drift
Risk-Neutral uses risk-free rate minus carry or dividend yield.
Zero Drift assumes no directional drift.
Historical Drift estimates drift from past log returns.
For short-term trading, Zero Drift or Risk-Neutral usually provides cleaner projections.
Historical Drift can be unstable and may overfit recent trends.
6. Risk-Free Rate and Carry / Dividend Yield
These inputs are used when the Drift Model is set to Risk-Neutral.
For equities, carry or dividend yield can represent dividend assumptions.
For FX, the difference between domestic and foreign rates may be relevant.
For crypto, users may prefer Zero Drift unless they have a clear carry assumption.
7. Probability to Target
The script includes an optional probability-to-target feature.
When enabled, the user can enter a target price.
The indicator estimates the model-based probability that price will finish above that target by the end of the projection horizon.
This is useful for scenario planning and target evaluation.
It should not be treated as a guaranteed forecast.
HOW TO READ THE INDICATOR
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The indicator plots a forward cone on the price chart.
General visual guide:
• White path = expected path
• Green cone = ±1σ range
• Orange cone = ±2σ range
• Red cone = ±3σ range
The dashboard shows:
• Anchor price
• Volatility model
• Annualized volatility
• Drift model
• Annual drift
• Horizon bars
• Expected terminal price
• +1σ and -1σ terminal levels
• +2σ and -2σ terminal levels
• +3σ and -3σ terminal levels
• Probability above target if enabled
The cone should be read as a forward probability range, not as support and resistance.
HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
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Use the Risk-Neutral Probability Cone as a forward scenario tool.
The main workflow is:
1. Choose the market and timeframe.
The indicator can be used on intraday or daily charts.
The timeframe should match the trader’s holding period.
2. Choose the anchor mode.
Use Close for live projection.
Use Manual for trade planning.
Use EMA for smoother trend-based projections.
Use VWAP for intraday execution context.
3. Select the projection horizon.
Match the horizon to the trade idea.
A scalp should use fewer bars.
A swing trade should use more bars.
4. Select the volatility model.
Use Realized Volatility for a cleaner statistical model.
Use ATR Proxy for a more range-sensitive model.
Use Composite for a balanced approach.
5. Select the drift model.
Use Risk-Neutral for derivatives-style scenario mapping.
Use Zero Drift for clean short-term projections.
Use Historical Drift only when you intentionally want recent trend behaviour included.
6. Read the cone.
If price is inside the 1σ cone, the move is relatively normal.
If price approaches the 2σ cone, the move is becoming extended.
If price approaches the 3σ cone, the move is extreme relative to the selected assumptions.
7. Compare price targets to the cone.
Targets inside the 1σ cone are more conservative.
Targets near the 2σ cone are more aggressive.
Targets near or beyond the 3σ cone require a much stronger volatility or trend justification.
PRACTICAL TRADING USE CASES
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1. Trade Target Planning
The cone helps traders assess whether a target is realistic for the selected holding period.
If a target is far beyond the 2σ or 3σ cone, the trader should question whether the target is realistic without a major catalyst.
2. Stop-Loss Planning
The cone can help traders understand normal adverse movement.
A stop placed too close inside the normal 1σ range may be vulnerable to ordinary volatility.
A stop placed outside the expected range may require smaller position size.
3. Event-Risk Planning
The cone can be used before major events such as:
• CPI
• NFP
• FOMC
• ECB decisions
• Earnings
• Crypto unlocks
• Geopolitical events
• Major macro data
The trader can compare expected event movement against the cone.
If price moves outside the 2σ or 3σ cone after the event, it may indicate that the market is repricing beyond normal volatility assumptions.
4. Breakout Assessment
If price breaks above the 1σ cone and volatility is also expanding, the breakout may have more momentum support.
If price breaks the 1σ cone but immediately returns inside the cone, the breakout may be weaker.
5. Mean-Reversion Monitoring
Price near the 2σ or 3σ cone may be extended.
However, the cone should not be used to fade price blindly.
A better mean-reversion setup requires confirmation such as:
• Failed continuation
• Re-entry inside the cone
• Break of short-term structure
• Volatility cooling
• Reclaim of a key moving average
• Liquidity sweep and rejection
6. Scenario Analysis
The cone can be used to frame bull, base, and bear scenarios.
The upper cone levels represent upside scenarios.
The lower cone levels represent downside scenarios.
The expected path represents the model’s central scenario.
SUGGESTED SETTINGS
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FX 1-Hour
• Anchor Mode: Close or Manual
• Volatility Model: Realized Volatility or Composite
• Realized Volatility Lookback: 30 to 50
• ATR Lookback: 14
• Horizon Bars: 24 to 72
• Cone Drawing Step: 4 to 8
• Bars Per Year: 6240
• Drift Model: Risk-Neutral or Zero Drift
Crypto 1-Hour
• Anchor Mode: Close or Manual
• Volatility Model: Composite
• Realized Volatility Lookback: 50
• ATR Lookback: 14 to 21
• Horizon Bars: 24 to 168
• Cone Drawing Step: 6 to 12
• Bars Per Year: 8760
• Drift Model: Zero Drift or Risk-Neutral
Daily Equities / Indices
• Anchor Mode: Close or EMA
• Volatility Model: Composite
• Realized Volatility Lookback: 20 to 30
• ATR Lookback: 14
• Horizon Bars: 10 to 30
• Cone Drawing Step: 2 to 5
• Bars Per Year: 252
• Drift Model: Risk-Neutral
Intraday Indices
• Anchor Mode: Close, Manual, or VWAP
• Volatility Model: Composite
• Realized Volatility Lookback: 30 to 50
• ATR Lookback: 14
• Horizon Bars: 24 to 96
• Cone Drawing Step: 4 to 8
• Bars Per Year: adjust to the timeframe
• Drift Model: Zero Drift or Risk-Neutral
DRIFT MODEL GUIDE
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Risk-Neutral Drift
Risk-Neutral drift uses:
Risk-Free Rate minus Carry / Dividend Yield
This is useful for a derivatives-style probability framework.
For FX, this may approximate the interest rate differential.
For equities, the carry input may represent dividend yield.
For crypto, this is often less relevant unless there is a specific funding or carry assumption.
Zero Drift
Zero Drift assumes no expected directional drift.
This is often useful for short-term trading because drift is usually small relative to volatility over short horizons.
Zero Drift is a clean default for intraday analysis.
Historical Drift
Historical Drift estimates drift from recent average log returns.
This can make the cone follow recent trend behaviour, but it is also more prone to overfitting.
Historical Drift should be used carefully.
VOLATILITY MODEL GUIDE
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Realized Volatility
Realized Volatility uses close-to-close log returns.
This is statistically clean and works well for probability-based modelling.
ATR Proxy
ATR Proxy uses range-based volatility.
It is more sensitive to intrabar movement and can be useful for instruments with large wicks or wide trading ranges.
Composite
Composite blends realized volatility and ATR volatility.
This is often the best practical default because it captures both return-based and range-based volatility.
PROBABILITY TO TARGET
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The probability-to-target feature estimates the probability that price will finish above the selected target price by the end of the projection horizon.
This can be useful for:
• Checking whether a target is realistic
• Comparing upside and downside scenarios
• Evaluating trade targets before entry
• Stress testing expectations
• Avoiding overly ambitious targets
Important note:
The probability is model-based.
It depends heavily on the selected volatility, drift, anchor, and horizon inputs.
It should not be treated as a guaranteed probability.
HOW TO COMBINE WITH OTHER INDICATORS
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This indicator works best as part of a broader volatility and market-structure framework.
Useful combinations:
• Expected Move Bands
• Realized Volatility Regime Indicator
• Implied Volatility Proxy
• Delta-Hedging Pressure Proxy
• Dynamic Stop-Loss Using Expected Move
• VWAP
• Moving averages
• Support and resistance
• Liquidity zones
• Market structure breaks
• Macro and event calendars
Suggested framework:
Expected Move Bands show near-term projected levels.
Realized Volatility Regime shows whether volatility is low, normal, high, or extreme.
IV Proxy shows whether broader uncertainty is rising or cooling.
Delta-Hedging Pressure Proxy shows whether directional pressure is positive or negative.
Dynamic Stop-Loss Using Expected Move converts volatility into stop and target levels.
Risk-Neutral Probability Cone maps a full forward probability range.
Together, these tools help answer:
• How far can price move?
• What is the probable forward range?
• Is the target realistic?
• Is volatility expanding or cooling?
• Is directional pressure aligned?
• Where should stops and targets be placed?
• Should position size be reduced?
TRADING EXAMPLES
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Example 1: Target Planning
A trader is long EUR/USD on the 1-hour chart.
The trader sets the cone horizon to 24 bars.
The upside target is close to the +1σ terminal level.
This suggests the target is within a normal expected range.
If the target is above +2σ, the trader may need stronger confirmation from trend, momentum, or event risk.
Example 2: Breakout Confirmation
Price breaks above a key resistance level and moves outside the +1σ cone.
If volatility is expanding and the IV Proxy is rising, the breakout may have stronger continuation potential.
If price quickly returns inside the cone, the breakout may be weaker.
Example 3: Event Risk
Before a central bank decision, a trader anchors the cone from the pre-event price.
After the event, price moves beyond the 2σ cone.
This suggests the event caused a larger-than-normal repricing relative to the volatility assumptions used before the event.
Example 4: Mean-Reversion Watch
Price trades near the +3σ cone.
This is an extreme move relative to the model.
However, the trader should not automatically short.
A better setup would require failed continuation, volatility cooling, and price re-entry inside the cone.
Example 5: Stop Placement Context
A trader wants to place a stop inside the 1σ cone.
The cone suggests that ordinary volatility could reach that level.
The trader may choose to reduce size and place the stop beyond a more meaningful structure level, or avoid the trade if reward-to-risk is poor.
RISK MANAGEMENT NOTES
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The cone is most useful when combined with position sizing and trade invalidation logic.
Practical risk rules:
• Do not treat cone levels as guaranteed support or resistance
• Do not fade 2σ or 3σ moves without confirmation
• Reduce size when volatility is high and the cone is wide
• Avoid unrealistic targets far outside the cone without a catalyst
• Use the cone to judge whether stops and targets are reasonable
• Re-anchor the cone after major events or regime shifts
• Treat the cone as a scenario map, not a forecast
A wider cone means uncertainty is higher.
Higher uncertainty should generally mean smaller position size.
WHAT THIS INDICATOR IS BEST FOR
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This indicator is best used for:
• Forward probability mapping
• Scenario analysis
• Target evaluation
• Event-risk planning
• Stop and target context
• Volatility-adjusted range projection
• Identifying normal versus extreme price movement
• Trade planning
• Risk management
It is useful for traders who want to frame markets probabilistically instead of relying only on static support and resistance.
WHAT THIS INDICATOR IS NOT
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This indicator is not:
• A buy or sell signal generator
• A standalone trading strategy
• A guarantee that price will stay inside the cone
• A Monte Carlo simulation
• A true options-implied probability model
• A replacement for risk management
• A replacement for market structure
• A complete trading system
The cone describes a model-based forward distribution.
It does not predict the future with certainty.
IMPORTANT LIMITATIONS
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The indicator depends on model assumptions.
Key assumptions include:
• Volatility estimate is relevant for the future horizon
• Price movement can be approximated by a lognormal process
• Drift input is reasonable
• Market conditions remain broadly comparable
• No sudden structural break occurs
These assumptions can fail.
The cone may become inaccurate during:
• Economic data shocks
• Central bank decisions
• Earnings surprises
• Geopolitical events
• Liquidity gaps
• Crypto liquidation cascades
• Market opens and closes
• Sudden volatility regime shifts
The indicator does not include:
• Options implied volatility
• Options skew
• Volatility term structure
• Dealer positioning
• Order flow
• Market depth
• News sentiment
• Fundamental data
• Liquidity conditions
The cone should be used as a decision-support tool, not as a standalone trading system.
FINAL NOTES
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The Risk-Neutral Probability Cone helps traders convert volatility, drift, and time into a forward probability map.
Instead of asking only whether price is bullish or bearish, this tool helps answer:
• What is the probable forward range?
• Is the current move normal or extended?
• Is my target realistic?
• Is my stop too close?
• Is the market moving beyond expected assumptions?
• Should I reduce size because uncertainty is high?
• Has the market repriced beyond the cone after an event?
The indicator is designed to improve scenario planning, risk discipline, and volatility-aware decision making.
Indicator
