Swing Trader's Buy Signal
A Buy or Strong Buy signal triggers when multiple independent technical factors align simultaneously. Instead of relying on a single indicator (which often produces false signals), this dashboard evaluates confluent technical layers: Macro Trend, Short-Term Momentum, Institutional Volume, and Relative Strength.
Breakdown of Dashboard Elements
Trend (Overall Structure)
What it checks: Confirms whether Price > SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200.
Why it triggers a Buy: Institutional traders trade in the direction of the macro trend. A bullish trend hierarchy ensures you are not buying into a falling knife or fighting a broader downtrend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
What it checks: Measures price momentum speed (RSI > 50 gives +1 pt, RSI > 60 gives +1 pt).
Why it triggers a Buy: An RSI above 50 indicates buyers are in control of momentum. Crossing above 60 signifies accelerating momentum without entering extreme overbought exhaustion.
Stoch RSI (Stochastic RSI Crossover)
What it checks: Evaluates if the Fast line %K is above %D (k > d) and recovering from oversold territory (k > 20).
Why it triggers a Buy: RSI provides the macro momentum, but Stoch RSI provides precise swing timing. A bullish %K > %D crossover pinpoints the exact moment a brief pullback ends and the upward swing resumes.
RS vs SPY (Relative Strength vs. Benchmark)
What it checks: Compares the asset's performance directly against the market index (AMEX:SPY).
Why it triggers a Buy: Outperforming stocks lead market rallies. Positive RS momentum (+1 to +2 pts) confirms that institutions are actively accumulating this specific asset faster than the broader market.
Price > SMA20 (Short-Term Trend Filter)
What it checks: Verifies if current price is trading above its 20-period Simple Moving Average.
Why it triggers a Buy: The 20 SMA represents the short-term swing baseline. Trading above it confirms immediate buyer control and validates short-term breakout momentum.
Price > SMA50 (Medium-Term Trend Filter)
What it checks: Verifies if current price is trading above its 50-period Simple Moving Average.
Why it triggers a Buy: The 50 SMA is the primary benchmark for institutional support. Staying above this level proves medium-term pullbacks are being bought rather than sold.
Volume (Institutional Participation)
What it checks: Compares current bar volume against its 20-period average (HIGH = >120%, VERY HIGH = >150%).
Why it triggers a Buy: Price moves without high volume lack conviction. Above-average volume confirms "smart money" accumulation, providing the fuel required for a sustained breakout.
Score (Confluence Aggregator)What it checks: Sums up the binary conditions across all indicators (Maximum score = 11).
Why it triggers a Buy: A BUY requires a score $\ge 7$ alongside an early bull trend, while a STRONG BUY requires a score $\ge 9$ with fully aligned trends, relative strength, and RSI momentum. This eliminates guesswork by requiring a strict mathematical majority of positive technical factors before triggering an entry.
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SMC V3 - OB FVG OTE - Institutional Move DetectoSMC V3 est un indicateur d'aide à l'analyse basé sur les concepts Smart Money Concepts (SMC), conçu principalement pour l'analyse de XAUUSD (Gold) en 15 minutes.
L'objectif est de filtrer les configurations et d'identifier des zones présentant plusieurs confluences avant de proposer un setup.
Le système combine :
Order Block (OB)
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Liquidity Sweep
Displacement / impulsion
OTE Fibonacci 61.8% - 78.6%
Retracement dans la zone
Score de validation strict 4/4
Lorsqu'un setup valide est détecté, l'indicateur construit automatiquement une zone BUY ou SELL et calcule les niveaux Entry, Stop Loss et Take Profit, avec un objectif basé sur un Risk/Reward de 1:2.
Le signal BUY ou SELL du tableau de bord n'est affiché que lorsque le prix revient suffisamment proche du niveau d'Entry. En dehors de cette zone, le statut reste sur WAIT, afin d'éviter d'afficher un signal lorsque le prix est déjà trop éloigné de l'entrée prévue.
L'indicateur comprend également un dashboard dynamique permettant de suivre le setup actif, le score, la validation OB/FVG, l'OTE, le niveau d'Entry, la distance du prix par rapport à l'Entry et le signal actuel.
Un journal statistique des dernières zones conservées permet de suivre les résultats historiques avec le nombre de WIN, LOSS, trades en cours, zones sans Entry et le Win Rate.
Les anciennes zones peuvent être conservées sur le graphique afin de faciliter le backtesting visuel et l'analyse des setups précédents.
Important : cet indicateur est un outil d'aide à l'analyse et ne constitue pas un conseil financier. Les signaux et performances historiques ne garantissent pas les résultats futurs. Indicator
TDVW Momentum Levels v3TDVW Momentum Levels v2 — Volume & Trend-Confirmed Trading Zones
A precision toolkit for momentum and scalping traders that filters out noise before it reaches your chart.
📊 WHAT IT SHOWS
✅ EMA Ribbon (9/21/50/100/200) — instant trend read at a glance
✅ VWAP — the institutional benchmark line
✅ Supply & Demand Zones — confirmed, not raw pivots
✅ Volatility-Adaptive Entry, Stop, Target 1 & Target 2
✅ Clean summary table — all key levels in one glance, top-right corner
🔍 ORIGINALITY — HOW THIS DIFFERS FROM A STANDARD PIVOT/ATR SCRIPT
Most zone-detection scripts plot every raw pivot high/low, producing dozens of levels most of which are noise. This script only confirms a zone when TWO independent conditions align: (1) the pivot bar's volume exceeds its rolling average by a configurable multiplier, and (2) the zone is not counter to the current EMA trend direction (e.g. a supply zone is discarded while the market is in a confirmed uptrend). This cross-filter removes low-conviction levels that a raw pivot detector would otherwise plot.
The Entry/Stop/Target system is volatility-adaptive rather than fixed: it compares the current ATR reading against its own historical average (50-bar baseline) and scales the stop/target multipliers up or down accordingly. In a high-volatility regime, target distances automatically widen; in a quiet market, they compress. The live "Volatility×" reading in the summary table shows this factor directly.
🎯 BUILT FOR MOMENTUM & SCALPING
Designed for traders working fast-moving, low-float stocks, where fixed-percentage or fixed-ATR tools often place targets too tight (choppy markets) or too far (quiet markets) because they don't adapt to changing volatility.
⚙️ HOW TO USE
1. Add to any chart, any timeframe
2. Watch for EMA alignment (9 > 21 > 50) confirming trend direction
3. Only confirmed Supply/Demand zones (labeled "Vol+Trend Confirmed") are plotted — raw unconfirmed pivots are filtered out
4. Use the Entry/Stop/Target table for a volatility-adjusted trade plan
5. Adjust Volume Multiplier, ATR Length, and Base ATR multipliers in settings to match your risk tolerance and the instrument's typical volatility
⚠️ Educational tool only. Not financial advice. Always manage your own risk. Indicator
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MTF SMC / ICT Market State Engine# MTF SMC / ICT Market State & Reversal Dashboard
A multi-timeframe market-structure dashboard designed for traders using **Smart Money Concepts (SMC), ICT, liquidity and price-action analysis**.
The indicator combines structural information across **1D, 4H, 15M and 1M** into a single compact dashboard, helping traders identify the current **directional bias, market stage, liquidity condition and potential reversals** without having to manually compare multiple timeframes.
### What the Dashboard Shows
For each timeframe, the dashboard displays:
* **Bias** — Bullish, Bearish or Neutral
* **Structure** — HH/HL, LH/LL, BOS, MSS or CHOCH
* **Market Stage** — Accumulation, Liquidity Build, Manipulation, Confirmed Shift, Expansion, Retracement, Continuation, Exhaustion, Distribution or Reversal
* **Liquidity** — BSL, SSL, EQH, EQL and recently swept liquidity
* **Reversal State** — Normal, Reversal Warning, Reversal Developing or Confirmed Reversal
* **Structural Confidence** — Low, Medium or High
### Multi-Timeframe Bias
The indicator treats each timeframe according to its role in the market hierarchy:
**1D → Macro Bias**
**4H → Primary/Intraday Bias**
**15M → Setup & Market Structure**
**1M → Execution Structure**
This allows the indicator to distinguish between a genuine trend reversal and a simple lower-timeframe retracement.
For example:
**1D Bullish → 4H Bullish → 15M Bearish → 1M Bearish**
may be classified as:
> **HTF BULLISH / LTF RETRACEMENT**
rather than incorrectly changing the overall bias to bearish.
### Reversal Detection
The indicator does not treat every liquidity sweep or MSS as a confirmed reversal.
Reversal conditions progress through four stages:
**Normal → Reversal Warning → Reversal Developing → Confirmed Reversal**
A stronger reversal requires multiple structural factors such as:
* Liquidity sweep
* Displacement
* MSS/CHOCH
* Protected high/low violation
* Structural follow-through
This helps separate **liquidity manipulation and retracement** from an actual change in market structure.
### Market-State Engine
Rather than displaying disconnected SMC signals, the indicator interprets them as part of a market cycle:
**Accumulation → Liquidity Build → Manipulation → Confirmed Shift → Expansion → Retracement → Continuation → Exhaustion → Reversal**
The purpose is to answer four key questions:
> **What is the market direction?**
> **What stage is the market currently in?**
> **Where is the relevant liquidity?**
> **Is the market continuing, retracing or beginning a reversal?**
### Designed for SMC / ICT Traders
The indicator is intended as a **market-analysis and decision-support tool**, not an automatic trading system.
It does not attempt to predict future price or provide guaranteed buy/sell signals. Instead, it organizes multi-timeframe structural information into a clear framework so traders can make more consistent discretionary decisions.
**Primary workflow:**
**1D Bias → 4H Structure → 15M Setup → 1M Confirmation → Liquidity → Market Stage → Reversal Status**
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Top Dog Energy Matrix Trading System// =============================================================================
// TOP DOG ENERGY MATRIX - TABLE GUIDE & METHODOLOGY
// =============================================================================
// Summarizes the Top Dog energies (Barry Burns method) across 5 timeframes at
// once: 1D / 4H / 1H / 15m / 5m. Each ROW is a timeframe and computes its own
// indicators in its own timeframe.
// READ IT: top -> bottom (slow/dominant -> fast/execution)
// left -> right (cycle -> entry signal)
// =============================================================================
//
// -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
// 1. COLUMNS (what each one means)
// -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
// TF Timeframe of the row (1D/4H/1H/15m/5m). Top rules: 1D & 4H set
// the bias, 1H & 15m fine-tune, 5m executes.
//
// Ciclos Cycle count within the trend: "previous / new" (e.g. 5 / 2).
// +1 each time %D crosses the 50 level. Resets to 0 when trend
// flips (15EMA vs 50SMA), saving the prior count.
// 1-2 = early (trade zone). 5-7 = extended (caution, near end).
// Teal bg = %D rising, red = falling.
//
// C.M "Cycle Momentum": live %D value vs 50 + direction (U/D/=).
// e.g. "62 U". Read the trajectory (50->55->60 = rising).
// Blue if %D>50, yellow at 50, red if <50.
//
// Momentum Momentum (MACD/MOM) direction: UP / DOWN / PLANO.
// PLANO = histogram below 70% of its own average.
// UP=teal (bullish), DOWN=red (bearish), PLANO=gray (no energy).
//
// ATR Relative volatility vs its own 50-bar avg: ALTA/NORM/BAJA.
// ALTA(orange)=big candles, more risk+range. BAJA(faint blue)=
// tight market. NORM(gray)=normal.
//
// Vol Volume vs its own 50-bar avg: ALTA/NORM/BAJA (same colors as
// ATR). ALTA=conviction behind the move. BAJA=few participating
// (suspicious, more likely to fail).
//
// Divergencias Stochastic divergence in that TF: direction + strength.
// UP FUERTE (solid lime) = %K AND %D diverge = most reliable.
// UP debil (faint lime) = %K only = early.
// DN debil (faint red) = bearish %K only.
// DN FUERTE (solid red) = bearish %K AND %D.
// "-" (gray) = none. UP=possible bottom, DN=possible top.
//
// Trend/ADX Trend (15EMA vs 50SMA): ALCISTA/BAJISTA + ADX value beside it
// (e.g. "ALCISTA 32"). Teal=bull, red=bear. ADX = STRENGTH only
// (>25 solid, <20 weak/ranging), NOT direction.
//
// Estado Do cycle & momentum of that TF agree?
// ALINEADO(green)=yes, onside. MIXTO(orange)=disagree.
// PLANO(gray)=no momentum.
//
// Gatillo Entry signal - only meaningful on the 5m row.
// ARMADO = hook fired, waiting for the break.
// LONG/SHORT (teal/red) = fired with 15m aligned.
// DEBIL (blue) = fired but 15m not backing it = lower quality.
// "-" = nothing.
//
// -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
// 2. COLORS AT A GLANCE (background tells you the state)
// -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Green/Teal bullish / TF aligned / LONG
// Red bearish / SHORT / strong bearish divergence
// Blue C.M %D>50 | Gatillo DEBIL
// Orange ATR/Vol ALTA | Estado MIXTO
// Yellow C.M right at 50 (decision zone)
// Faint gray neutral: NORM / PLANO / no signal
// (ATR and Vol share identical colors: same state = same color.)
//
// -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
// 3. METHODOLOGY (step by step)
// -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
// GOLDEN RULE: the higher timeframe rules. Never trade against 1D/4H just
// because the 5m looks good. This table is a CONFLUENCE MAP - it tells you
// WHETHER to trade, in WHICH direction, and if it's a good MOMENT.
//
// Step 1 BIAS (1D & 4H): read Trend/ADX + Estado. Both ALCISTA/ALINEADO ->
// longs only. Both BAJISTA -> shorts only. Contradicting or ADX<20 ->
// weak bias, wait. Lower TFs do NOT change this direction.
//
// Step 2 NOT LATE? (Ciclos on 1H & 4H): count 1-2 = early = ideal.
// Count 5-7 = extended -> caution, Indicator
TDVW Momentum Levels v2TDVW Momentum Levels v2 — Volume & Trend-Confirmed Trading Zones
A precision toolkit for momentum and scalping traders that filters out noise before it reaches your chart.
📊 WHAT IT SHOWS
✅ EMA Ribbon (9/21/50/100/200) — instant trend read at a glance
✅ VWAP — the institutional benchmark line
✅ Supply & Demand Zones — confirmed, not raw pivots
✅ Volatility-Adaptive Entry, Stop, Target 1 & Target 2
✅ Clean summary table — all key levels in one glance, top-right corner
🔍 ORIGINALITY — HOW THIS DIFFERS FROM A STANDARD PIVOT/ATR SCRIPT
Most zone-detection scripts plot every raw pivot high/low, producing dozens of levels most of which are noise. This script only confirms a zone when TWO independent conditions align: (1) the pivot bar's volume exceeds its rolling average by a configurable multiplier, and (2) the zone is not counter to the current EMA trend direction (e.g. a supply zone is discarded while the market is in a confirmed uptrend). This cross-filter removes low-conviction levels that a raw pivot detector would otherwise plot.
The Entry/Stop/Target system is volatility-adaptive rather than fixed: it compares the current ATR reading against its own historical average (50-bar baseline) and scales the stop/target multipliers up or down accordingly. In a high-volatility regime, target distances automatically widen; in a quiet market, they compress. The live "Volatility×" reading in the summary table shows this factor directly.
🎯 BUILT FOR MOMENTUM & SCALPING
Designed for traders working fast-moving, low-float stocks, where fixed-percentage or fixed-ATR tools often place targets too tight (choppy markets) or too far (quiet markets) because they don't adapt to changing volatility.
⚙️ HOW TO USE
1. Add to any chart, any timeframe
2. Watch for EMA alignment (9 > 21 > 50) confirming trend direction
3. Only confirmed Supply/Demand zones (labeled "Vol+Trend Confirmed") are plotted — raw unconfirmed pivots are filtered out
4. Use the Entry/Stop/Target table for a volatility-adjusted trade plan
5. Adjust Volume Multiplier, ATR Length, and Base ATR multipliers in settings to match your risk tolerance and the instrument's typical volatility
⚠️ Educational tool only. Not financial advice. Always manage your own risk. Indicator
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ROIC vs WACC (Value Creation)The Recommended Timeframe This indicator must be used on a Daily (1D) timeframe.
There are two primary reasons for this:
The Beta Calculation: The script calculates the stock's volatility (Beta) against the S&P 500 using a default 252-bar lookback. There are roughly 252 trading days in a year. If you drop to a 1-hour chart, the script will calculate Beta over the last 252 hours, which completely breaks the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) math used to find the Cost of Equity.
Fundamental Data Frequency: Corporate financial data (like debt, tax rates, and ROIC) is only reported quarterly. Viewing this on an intraday chart provides no extra data and just wastes computing resources.
How the Indicator Works At its core, this indicator visualizes the most important rule in corporate finance: A company only creates true wealth for shareholders if its Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is higher than its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).
If a company borrows money at 8% (WACC) to fund projects that only return 5% (ROIC), it is destroying value, even if its total revenue is growing.
Here is how the script breaks that down visually on your chart:
The Blue Line (ROIC) What it is: Return on Invested Capital. It measures how efficiently a company turns debt and equity into profit.
How it behaves: Because this data is pulled directly from the company's financial statements (Form 10-K or 10-Q), the line will look like a "staircase." It remains flat until a new earnings report is released, at which point it steps up or down.
The Orange Line (WACC) What it is: Weighted Average Cost of Capital. This is the "hurdle rate" the company must beat. It blends the cost of the company's debt (interest payments) and the cost of its equity (what shareholders expect to earn given the stock's risk).
How it behaves: Unlike ROIC, this line wiggles and waves every single day. This is because the script actively calculates WACC using live market data:
It checks the real-time US 10-Year Treasury yield to find the risk-free rate.
It calculates a live Beta to measure the stock's daily risk against the S&P 500.
It uses the live stock price to calculate the Market Cap, constantly shifting the weight between debt and equity.
The Histogram (Economic Spread) What it is: The visual difference between the Blue Line and the Orange Line (ROIC - WACC).
How to read it:
Teal Bars (Above Zero): The company is a Value Creator. It is earning more on its capital than that capital costs to acquire. These are typically high-quality businesses with strong competitive moats.
Red Bars (Below Zero): The company is a Value Destroyer. Its cost of funding is dragging down its actual returns.
A Note on the "Manual" Setting Because WACC relies heavily on a stock's historical volatility (Beta), extremely volatile tech stocks (like heavily shorted meme stocks) or highly leveraged Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) can temporarily cause the math to spit out absurd WACC numbers (like 40% or 50%).
If you are looking at an unusual stock and the Orange line looks broken, you can open the indicator settings and change the WACC Mode from "Estimated" to "Manual". This will lock the Orange line at a flat, sensible hurdle rate (default 8%) so you can still measure the company's ROIC against a standard benchmark. Indicator
Key Levels, Trading Sessions & Dynamic Long/Short SignalsThis all-in-one PulseWire indicator is designed to streamline your daily market analysis by automatically plotting critical higher-timeframe liquidity levels, tracking major trading sessions, and highlighting potential trade directional biases in real time.
✨ Key Features
1. Dynamic Key Levels (Daily & Weekly Liquidity)
Yesterday’s Daily High & Low: Automatic projection of yesterday's key liquidity boundaries.
Previous Day High & Low: Tracks the levels from two days ago for broader context.
Previous Week High & Low: Keeps major weekly extremes clear on your lower-timeframe charts.
Custom Projections: Lines extend cleanly without cluttering past historical price action.
2. Actionable Trade Direction (Long & Short Bias Signals)
Automatic Level Sweeps/Touches: Detects when price interacts with key liquidity zones.
Visual Directional Labels:
"Buscar Long" (Look for Longs): Appears below key support / Daily Low touches with precise visual spacing.
"Buscar Shorts" (Look for Shorts): Appears above key resistance / Daily High touches.
ATR-Based Spacing: Labels and arrows dynamically adjust using Average True Range (ATR) to avoid overlapping candles or arrows across any asset (Crypto, Forex, Indices, Stocks).
3. Session Shadings & On-Screen Legend
Session Background Highlights: Customizable session ranges for Asia, London, and New York (NYC).
Reference Table: An elegant, customizable on-screen legend displaying active session colors.
Day Separators: Optional vertical lines marking the start of each new trading day.
🔔 Work Smarter: Use Alerts to Avoid Screen Fatigue
You don't need to sit in front of your charts all day waiting for levels to get touched.
Recommended Workflow:
Set Up Alerts: Create custom PulseWire alerts on the indicator when price reaches key levels or when a signal triggers.
Step Away: Go about your day while the market moves.
Evaluate & Execute: When you receive an alert notification, it simply means price has reached a key decision zone. Open your chart, evaluate price action at that moment, and decide whether or not to take the trade.
⚙️ Fully Customizable
Adjust line colors, styles, and text offsets.
Enable or disable individual sessions, daily separators, and session tables according to your trading setup. Indicator
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Yield StrengthOANDA:NZDCHF Yield Strength — Bond Yield Spread Indicator Between Currencies
This indicator measures the relative strength of major currencies based on the yield differential (interest rates) of each country's government bonds, rather than price.
How it works:
Fetches the government bond yield (2Y, 5Y, or 10Y, selectable) for 8 economies: US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Switzerland.
Calculates the yield spread between the current chart pair (e.g., EURUSD = EUR yield − USD yield) and plots it alongside two EMAs (fast and slow) of that spread, signaling trend crossovers with a color change (green = bullish, red = bearish).
In parallel, calculates the yield spread for all 28 possible pairs among these 8 currencies and applies the same EMA-crossover logic to each.
Consolidates everything into a scoreboard in the corner of the screen: each currency gains or loses points depending on whether it's on the "strong" or "weak" side of the yield in each of the 28 pairs — producing a relative strength ranking of currencies based purely on implied monetary policy/interest rates, not price.
Why it's useful:
Yield differential is one of the main drivers of flow in forex (carry trade, rate expectations). This indicator translates that macro concept into a visual signal and an objective ranking, useful as a context/trend filter for swing trading, without relying on traditional price-based indicators.
How to use it:
Recommended timeframe: works best on higher timeframes — H1, H4, or D1. Since it's based on yield differentials (a slow-moving macro driver), it's not suited for scalping or very low timeframes, where price noise dominates and the interest-rate signal loses relevance.
Best used with the trend. Use it as a context filter, not a standalone entry trigger. When the spread and EMAs are aligned with the pair's price trend direction, it reinforces that the macro flow is "pushing" the pair in the same direction — giving more confidence to trade with that trend.
Scoreboard: use the strength ranking of the 8 currencies to spot "stretched" pairs (strong currency vs. weak currency) — usually the best candidates for trend-following entries backed by this macro driver.
Color crossovers (green/red) on the spread's EMAs signal a regime change — useful for confirming the yield trend is still active before entering, rather than already exhausted.
Technical: Pine Script v6. All 28 spreads are calculated locally from just 8 request.security calls (one per currency), working around PulseWire's 40-security limit even while analyzing 28 pairs. Indicator
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CTZ MVRV Z-Score & Realized CapHere's a PulseWire description for it. I've kept the emphasis where you asked — it's a stronger bottom-picker than top-picker — and stayed honest about what it is and its limits.
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**CTZ MVRV Z-Score & Realized Cap**
An on-chain valuation tool for Bitcoin that compares what the market is paying for BTC against what holders actually paid for it — and flags when price has fallen below the aggregate cost basis, which is historically where major bottoms form.
This pulls real on-chain data (CoinMetrics Market Cap and Realized Cap via PulseWire), not a price-based approximation. Run it on a BTCUSD chart for full history.
WHAT IT MEASURES
Market Cap is Bitcoin's price times circulating supply — what the network is worth right now. Realized Cap values every coin at the price it last moved on-chain, so it represents the aggregate cost basis of all holders — what the market actually paid.
From these two it builds:
MVRV Ratio — Market Cap divided by Realized Cap. Above 1, holders are in aggregate profit; below 1, the market is in aggregate loss, which is rare and historically a strong accumulation signal.
MVRV Z-Score — the orange line. It standardises the gap between market value and realized value against its own historical deviation, so extremes stand out clearly across cycles. A green accumulation band sits at the bottom, a red distribution band up top.
Below-Realized flag — when Market Cap drops below Realized Cap (price below the average cost basis of the whole market), the background shades green. This is the core bottom condition and the reason the tool leans the way it does.
BETTER FOR BOTTOMS THAN TOPS — READ THIS
Be clear on how to use this: it is a far more reliable bottom-picker than top-picker.
The bottom signal is grounded in something real and hard to fake — when price falls below the market's aggregate cost basis, the average holder is underwater, and that level of capitulation has marked every major Bitcoin bottom to date. It's a rare, high-conviction condition. When the Z-Score sinks into the green zone or the background flags below-realized, history says you are near a generational buying area.
The top signal is looser. Cycle tops have printed at very different Z-Score peaks as the asset has matured — each cycle tends to top at a lower Z-Score than the last as Bitcoin grows and volatility compresses. So the red band is a "getting expensive, take note" warning, not a precise sell trigger. Treat a green-zone reading as a strong signal to accumulate; treat a red-zone reading as a caution flag to pair with your own confirmation, never as a standalone exit.
In short: lean on it hard at the bottoms, lean on it lightly at the tops.
HOW TO USE IT
Run it on BTCUSD (or INDEX:BTCUSD / BLX for the longest history). Watch for the orange Z-Score entering the green band or the green background appearing — those are your accumulation windows. Use the red band as an overvaluation caution rather than a timed top. You can toggle between the Z-Score and the raw MVRV ratio, and adjust the zone thresholds to your own cycle read.
NOTES
This relies on PulseWire's on-chain data feed. If the on-chain series don't resolve on your plan, the tool shows a notice instead of plotting approximate data — it will never fake the metric. Because Realized Cap is Bitcoin-specific, this is a BTC-only tool.
Valuation extremes tell you when, roughly, not exactly. Bottoms are a zone, not a single day, and tops even more so. Use this as a cycle-position framework alongside your own analysis, not as a standalone buy/sell signal.
For educational and analytical purposes only. Not financial advice.
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