Strategy
Indicator
Strategy
Ultra Moving Average Rating Trend StrategyThis is a technical analysis strategy based initially on the rating strategy, but fully adapted and converted to moving average rating.
In this case we are using: Ichimoku, SMA, EMA, ALMA, SMMA, LSMA, VWMA, DEMA, HMA, KAMA FRAMA, VIDYA, JMA, TEMA, ZLEMA, TRIMA and T3 moving averages.
With all of them together I am making an index.
Rules for entry and exit:
If % percentage of all the moving averages is telling to go long , we go long or exit short. And viceversa for short.
If there are any questions, please let me know !
Strategy
Strategy
SUPPORT RESISTANCE STRATEGY [5MIN TF]A SUPPORT RESISTANCE BREAKOUT STRATEGY for 5 minute Time-Frame , that has the time condition for Indian Markets
The Timing can be changed to fit other markets, scroll down to "TIME CONDITION" to know more.
The commission is also included in the strategy .
The basic idea is when ,
1) Price crosses above Resistance Level ,indicated by Red Line, is a Long condition.
2) Price crosses below Support Level ,indicated by Green Line , is a Short condition.
3) Candle high crosses above ema1, is a part of the Long condition .
4) Candle low crosses below ema1, is a part of the Short condition .
5) Volume Threshold is an added confirmation for long/short positions.
6) Maximum Risk per trade for the intraday trade can be changed .
7) Default qty size is set to 50 contracts , which can be changed under settings → properties → order size.
8) ATR is used for trailing after entry, as mentioned in the inputs below.
// ═════════════════════════//
// ————————> INPUTS <————————— //
// ═════════════════════════//
→ L_Bars ———————————> Length of Resistance / Support Levels.
→ R_Bars ———————————> Length of Resistance / Support Levels.
→ Volume Break ———————> Volume Breakout from range to confirm Long/Short position.
→ Price Cross Ema —————> Added condition as explained above (3) and (4).
→ ATR LONG —————————> ATR stoploss trail for Long positions.
→ ATR SHORT ————————> ATR stoploss trail for Short positions.
→ RISK ————————————> Maximum Risk per trade intraday.
The strategy was back-tested on TCS ,the input values and the results are mentioned under "BACKTEST RESULTS" below.
// ═════════════════════════ //
// ————————> PROPERTIES<——————— //
// ═════════════════════════ //
Default_qty_size ————> 50 contracts , which can be changed under
Settings
↓
Properties
↓
Order size
// ═══════════════════════════════//
// ————————> TIME CONDITION <————————— //
// ═══════════════════════════════//
The time can be changed in the script , Add it → click on ' { } ' → Pine editor→ making it a copy [right top corner} → Edit the line 27.
The Indian Markets open at 9:15am and closes at 3:30pm.
The 'time_cond' specifies the time at which Entries should happen .
"Close All" function closes all the trades at 3pm , at the open of the next candle.
To change the time to close all trades , Go to Pine Editor → Edit the line 92 .
All open trades get closed at 3pm , because some brokers don't allow you to place fresh intraday orders after 3pm .
// ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ //
// ————————> BACKTEST RESULTS ( 100 CLOSED TRADES )<————————— //
// ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ //
INPUTS can be changed for better Back-Test results.
The strategy applied to NSE:TCS ( 5 min Time-Frame and contract size 50) gives us 60% profitability , as shown below
It was tested for a period a 6 months with a Profit Factor of 1.8 ,net Profit of 30,000 Rs profit .
Sharpe Ratio : 0.49
Sortino Ratio : 1.4
The graph has a Linear Curve with Consistent Profits.
The INPUTS are as follows,
1) L_Bars —————————> 4
2) R_Bars —————————> 4
3) Volume Break ————> 5
4) Price Cross Ema ——> 100
5) ATR LONG ——————> 2.4
6) ATR SHORT —————> 2.6
7) RISK —————————> 2000
8) Default qty size ——> 50
NSE:TCS
Save it to favorites.
Apply it to your charts Now !!
Thank You ☺ NSE:TCS Strategy
PIVOT STRATEGY [INDIAN MARKET TIMING]
A Back-tested Profitable Strategy for Free!!
A PIVOT INTRADAY STRATEGY for 5 minute Time-Frame , that also explains the time condition for Indian Markets
The Timing can be changed to fit other markets, scroll down to "TIME CONDITION" to know more.
The commission is also included in the strategy .
The basic idea is when ,
1) Price crosses above ema1 ,indicated by pivot highest line in green color .
2) Price crosses below ema1 ,indicated by pivot lowest line in red color .
3) Candle high crosses above pivot highest , is the Long condition .
4) Candle low crosses below pivot lowest , is the Short condition .
5) Maximum Risk per trade for the intraday trade can be changed .
6) Default_qty_size is set to 60 contracts , which can be changed under settings → properties → order size .
7) ATR is used for trailing after entry, as mentioned in the inputs below.
// ═════════════════════════//
// ————————> INPUTS <————————— //
// ═════════════════════════//
Leftbars —————> Length of pivot highs and lows
Rightbars —————> Length of pivot highs and lows
Price Cross Ema —————> Added condition
ATR LONG —————> ATR stoploss trail for Long positions
ATR SHORT —————> ATR stoploss trail for Short positions
RISK —————> Maximum Risk per trade for the day
The strategy was back-tested on RELIANCE ,the input values and the results are mentioned under "BACKTEST RESULTS" below .
// ═════════════════════════ //
// ————————> PROPERTIES<——————— //
// ═════════════════════════ //
Default_qty_size ————> 60 contracts , which can be changed under settings
↓
properties
↓
order size
// ═══════════════════════════════//
// ————————> TIME CONDITION <————————— //
// ═══════════════════════════════//
The time can be changed in the script , Add it → click on ' { } ' → Pine editor→ making it a copy [right top corner} → Edit the line 25 .
The Indian Markets open at 9:15am and closes at 3:30pm .
The 'time_cond' specifies the time at which Entries should happen .
"Close All" function closes all the trades at 3pm, at the open of the next candle.
To change the time to close all trades , Go to Pine Editor → Edit the line 103 .
All open trades get closed at 3pm , because some brokers don't allow you to place fresh intraday orders after 3pm .
NSE:RELIANCE
// ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ //
// ————————> BACKTEST RESULTS ( 128 CLOSED TRADES )<————————— //
// ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ //
INPUTS can be changed for better back-test results.
The strategy applied to NIFTY ( 5 min Time-Frame and contract size 60 ) gives us 60% profitability y , as shown below
It was tested for a period a 6 months with a Profit Factor of 1.45 ,net Profit of 21,500Rs profit .
Sharpe Ratio : 0.311
Sortino Ratio : 0.727
The graph has a Linear Curve with consistent profits .
The INPUTS are as follows,
1) Leftbars ————————> 3
2) Rightbars ————————> 5
3) Price Cross Ema ——————> 150
4) ATR LONG ————————> 2.7
5) ATR SHORT ———————> 2.9
6) RISK —————————> 2500
7) Default qty size ——————> 60
NSE:RELIANCE
Save it to favorites.
Apply it to your charts Now !!
↓
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Strategy
Strategy
Strategy
Strategy
Accumulation Stage Identifier and Strategy around for TradingIn the psychology of trading at any market condition, there are four stage usually occurs on any tickers.
Stage 1 -> Neglect phase or consolidation phase
It occurs when the company does not produce the expected result and waiting for next result.
It can extend for days, weeks, months and years. Never give entry at this stage though that blue-chip told to be cheaper in price.
Stage 2 -> Accumulation
It occurs when the company's earning and sales consistently grows.
It can extend for days, weeks, months but should not expect the continues increase in price, as there will be potential pull-back which can be considered as opportunity to accumulate.
If the company fundamental is good, just give some space at the time of pullback.
Most of the time, the pullback volume will be low to compare to volume at the time of increase.
Usually, the stock that is going through accumulation stage will definitely trade above 200SMA and short term MA will be greater than long term moving average.
Continues the highest high and highest low along with volume.
Stage 3 -> Distribution
It occurs when the company's earning and sales stagnated due to certain reason.
It can extend for days, weeks while the price and volume highly volatile.
High volume while the price low
Typically, the stock that is going through distribution stage will certainly trade below 200SMA and short term MA will be lesser than long term moving average.
Continues the lowest high and lowest low along with volume.
Stage 4 -> Capitalization
Price reaches the 52W low while volume spikes on big down.
In each stage, the price & volume are perfect indicator to highlight the situation and the trader with proper discipline and patients can certainly reap the fruitful outcome of accumulation stage.
Based on this explanation, here is the strategy that is created with 50,90 & 200 Simple moving average and price volume trends (PVT) indicator applied on MACD to signal whenever the PVT convergence and divergence.
Note:
As the indicator designed to signal on the ticker that trade above 200 moving average, it is good to use this strategy on companies that are fundamental strong.
Whenever, there is pull back happens, the strategy might signal for exit, however, here comes the traders patient based on the conviction on the particular chosen stocks.
White being patient is good, disciplinary in following the strategy also important. Hence, consider the action when the stock goes opposite direction from your expectation.
Hope this strategy would help you find the profit.
Happy investing. Strategy
Strategy
Strategy
X48 - Strategy | MA Type Cross + TPSL | Future&Spot | V.2Thank You For Open Source Code, This Strategy Ref. By 1.Simple Strategy Like MA Crossover For Long/Short or Spot Trade, 2. CDC Action Zone V.2 for BarPaint
This Strategy Mixing With MA Crossover Strategy and BarPaint By CDC Action Zone and TP/SL by Varbara
### How To Use Strategy : Setting EMA/SMA Crossover EMA/SMA, Any Value If You Want
For Long Position : Cross Up
For Short Position : Cross Down
Can Use With Spot Trade : Cross Up = Buy, Cross Down = Sell
TP/SL When Your OrderSize Change From any % Of Your TP/SL Value
### In Strategy Setting
Intitial Capital = Ex. 200
Order Size = Should Be Money Management Not Use 100% of Capital Ex. 10% of Capital (200$) = Order Size 20$
StopLoss and Take Profit = If You Run Trend TF 4H+ or 1D+ You Can Change TP% = 1,000% for nonlimit and Stop Loss 5 - 20% from your order size
Ex. Stoploss 15% = OrderSize / 100 x %SL = 20$/100 x 15% = 3$ Loss from order size 20$ (if you not set stop loss.)
Base Currency = (Your Currency) # Ex. USD
Commission = (Your Trading Fee) # Ex. Future Fee Can Check At Binance Fee Rate > www.binance.com > Choose Your Fee Type, Ex. USD M Future (Regular User) = 0.02 (Maker), 0.04 (Taker)
Commission Symbol Type = % # (Ref. By Binance Fee Rate)
### Notice ####
Default Setting It's Realistic From Normal Life Ex. Capital 200$ / Ordersize 20$ (10%)/ Commission 0.1% (Buy+Sell) / Slippage = 2 / TP = 1000% (nonlimit) / SL = 15%/OrderSize
Low Risk But High Return, Good Luck
### Bot Auto Trade by X4815162342 ###
if you wanna try my bot auto trade X48-3in1-bot : Contact My Line ID : x4815x
Full Command Alert For This Strategy If You Wanna See It's
'{"ex":"'+markettype+'","side": "'+longcommand+'", "amount": "@{{strategy.order.contracts}}", "symbol": "{{ticker}}", "passphrase": "'+passphrase+'","leverage":"'+str.tostring(leveragex)+'"}'
'{"ex":"'+markettype+'","side": "'+shortcommand+'", "amount": "@{{strategy.order.contracts}}", "symbol": "{{ticker}}", "passphrase": "'+passphrase+'","leverage":"'+str.tostring(leveragex)+'"}'
But Easy Than Full Command Just Use Thisssssss !! Strategy Be Manage Auto Long and Short or TPSL Position
You Don't Do Anything Just Use This Message to Alerts Message
{{strategy.order.alert_message}}
### If you don't use bot but just looking for strategy test ####
Just Pass Bot Setting Function It's Nothing Effect For Strategy !!!!!!
Let's Enjoy With Your Strategy BackTest 😁
Remember Beware Max drawdown%. I'm Recommend Lower Than 10% It's Very Good. Strategy
Strategy
Strategy
Fast v Slow Moving Averages Strategy (Variable) [divonn1994]This is a simple moving average based strategy that takes 2 moving averages, a Fast and a Slow one, plots them both, and then decides to enter a 'long' position or exit it based on whether the two lines have crossed each other. It goes 'long when the Fast Moving Average crosses above the Slow Moving Average. This could indicate upwards momentum in prices in the future. It then exits the position when the the Fast Moving Average crosses back below. This could indicate downwards momentum in prices in the future. This is only speculative, though, but sometimes it can be a very good indicator/strategy to predict future action.
I've tried some strategy settings and I found different promising strategies. Here are a few:
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : EMA, Fast length 25 bars, Slow length 62 bars => 28,792x net profit (default)
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : VWMA, Fast length 21 bars, Slow length 60 bars => 15,603x net profit
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : SMA, Fast length 18 bars, Slow length 51 bars => 19,507x net profit
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : RMA, Fast length 20 bars, Slow length 52 bars => 5,729x net profit
BTCUSD ( BitStamp ) 1 Day Timeframe : WMA, Fast length 29 bars, Slow length 60 bars => 19,869x net profit
Features:
-You can choose your preferred moving average: SMA , EMA , WMA , RMA & VWMA .
-You can change the length average for each moving average
-I made the background color Green when you're currently in a long position and Red when not. I made it so you can see when you'd be actively in a trade or not. The Red and Green background colors can be toggled on/off in order to see other indicators more clearly overlayed in the chart, or if you prefer a cleaner look on your charts.
-I also have a plot of the Fast moving average and Slow moving average together. The Opening moving average is Purple, the Closing moving average is White. White on top is a sign of a potential upswing and purple on top is a sign of a potential downswing. I've made this also able to be toggled on/off.
Let me know if you think I should change anything with my script, I'm always open to constructive criticism so feel free to comment below :) Strategy
Strategy
Close v Open Moving Averages Strategy (Variable) [divonn1994]This is a simple moving average based strategy that works well with a few different coin pairings. It takes the moving average 'opening' price and plots it, then takes the moving average 'closing' price and plots it, and then decides to enter a 'long' position or exit it based on whether the two lines have crossed each other. The reasoning is that it 'enters' a position when the average closing price is increasing. This could indicate upwards momentum in prices in the future. It then exits the position when the average closing price is decreasing. This could indicate downwards momentum in prices in the future. This is only speculative, though, but sometimes it can be a very good indicator/strategy to predict future action.
What I've found is that there are a lot of coins that respond very well when the appropriate combination of: 1) type of moving average is chosen (EMA, SMA, RMA, WMA or VWMA) & 2) number of previous bars averaged (typically 10 - 250 bars) are chosen.
Depending on the coin.. each combination of MA and Number of Bars averaged can have completely different levels of success.
Example of Usage:
An example would be that the VWMA works well for BTCUSD (BitStamp), but it has different successfulness based on the time frame. For the 12 hour bar timeframe, with the 66 bar average with the VWMA I found the most success. The next best successful combo I've found is for the 1 Day bar timeframe with the 35 bar average with the VWMA.. They both have a moving average that records about a month, but each have a different successfulness. Below are a few pair combos I think are noticeable because of the net profit, but there are also have a lot of potential coins with different combos:
It's interesting to see the strategy tester change as you change the settings. The below pairs are just some of the most interesting examples I've found, but there might be other combos I haven't even tried on different coin pairs..
Some strategy settings:
BTCUSD (BitStamp) 12 Hr Timeframe : 66 bars, VWMA=> 10,387x net profit
BTCUSD (BitStamp) 1 Day Timeframe : 35 bars, VWMA=> 7,805x net profit
BNBUSD (Binance) 12 Hr Timeframe : 27 bars, VWMA => 15,484x net profit
ETHUSD (BitStamp) 16 Hr Timeframe : 60 bars, SMA => 5,498x net profit
XRPUSD (BitStamp) 16 Hr Timeframe : 33 bars, SMA => 10,178x net profit
I only chose these coin/combos because of their insane net profit factors. There are far more coins with lower net profits but more reliable trade histories.
Also, usually when I want to see which of these strategies might work for a coin pairing I will check between the different Moving Average types, for example the EMA or the SMA, then I also check between the moving average lengths (the number of bars calculated) to see which is most profitable over time.
Features:
-You can choose your preferred moving average: SMA, EMA, WMA, RMA & VWMA.
-You can also adjust the previous number of calculated bars for each moving average.
-I made the background color Green when you're currently in a long position and Red when not. I made it so you can see when you'd be actively in a trade or not. The Red and Green background colors can be toggled on/off in order to see other indicators more clearly overlayed in the chart, or if you prefer a cleaner look on your charts.
-I also have a plot of the Open moving average and Close moving average together. The Opening moving average is Purple, the Closing moving average is White. White on top is a sign of a potential upswing and purple on top is a sign of a potential downswing. I've made this also able to be toggled on/off.
Please, comment interesting pairs below that you've found for everyone :) thank you!
I will post more pairs with my favorite settings as well. I'll also be considering the quality of the trades.. for example: net profit, total trades, percent profitable, profit factor, trade window and max drawdown.
*if anyone can figure out how to change the date range, I woul really appreciate the help. It confuses me -_- * Strategy
Inside Bar SetupScript Details
- This script plots Inside Bar for given day in selected time-frame (applicable only for Timeframes < Day)
- Basis plotted inside bar, relevant targets are marked on the chart
- Targets can be customised from script settings. Example, if range of mother candle is 10 points, then T1 is 10 * x above/below mother candle and T2 is 10 * y above/below mother candle. This x & y are configured via script settings
How to use this script ?
- This script works well on 10-15 mins timeframe for stocks, 15/30 mins timeframe for nifty index and 30/60 mins time frame for bank nifty index
- If mother candle high is broken, take long trade with SL of mother candle low and if low is broken, take short trade with SL of mother candle high
Remember:
1. Above logic is to be combined with support/resistances i.e. price action. This script is an add-on to price action analysis giving you more conviction.
2. If range of mother candle is very high, it is recommended to avoid the trade.
3. Basis inside bar formed on higher time frame, take trade on basis of lower time frame i.e if inside bar is formed on 60 mins, take trade on the basis of 10-15 mins time frame
Example:
1. As seen in the chart, Nifty is near it's resistance and we are seeing Inside Bar being formed, In such scenario, even if High of Mother Candle is broken, we should be more interested to short as we are near resistance and probability of getting our targets in long side is less.
2. So, if I see breakdown of mother candle i.e. price going below low of mother candle, we will short with SL of high of mother candle.
3. As seen in the chart, both the targets are achieved.
Additional Info:
1. Targets on Long/Short Side can be configured via settings. For indices 1 times/1.5 times the range works well.
2. This script plots targets basis the first inside bar formed in the day for selected time frame.
3. Inside bars formed through out the day are coloured separately but lines are plotted only on the basis of 1st formed inside bar as this strategy works well for the first formed inside bar)
4. Don't forget to check volume in case of breakout/breakdown.
Note:
1. Mother Candle - First Candle of Inside Bar
2. Child Candle - Candle formed inside Mother Candle (Second Candle of Inside Bar)
Happy Trading :) Indicator
TriexDev - SuperBuySellTrendMinimal but powerful.
Have been using this for myself, so thought it would be nice to share publicly. Of course no script is correct 100% of the time, but this is one of if not the best in my basic tools.
Two indicators will appear, the default ATR multipliers are already set for what I believe to be perfect for this particular (double indicator) strategy.
If you want to break it yourself (I couldn't find anything that tested more accurately myself), you can do so in the settings.
Basic rundown:
A single Buy/Sell indicator in the dim colour; may be setting a direction change, or just healthy movement.
When the brighter Buy/Sell indicator appears; it often means that a change in direction (uptrend or downtrend) is confirmed.
You can see here, there was a (brighter) green indicator which flipped down then up into a (brighter) red sell indicator which set the downtrend. Once you understand the basics of how it works - it can become a very useful tool in your trading arsenal.
Typically I will use this and other indicators to confirm likeliness of a direction change prior to the brighter/confirmation one appearing - but just going by the 2nd(brighter) indicators, have found it to be surprisingly accurate.
Tends to work well on virtually all timeframes, but personally prefer to use it on 5min,15min,1hr, 4hr, daily, weekly. Will still work for shorter/other timeframes, but may be more accurate on mid ones. Indicator
VIDYA Trend StrategyOne of the most common messages I get is people reaching out asking for quantitative strategies that trade cryptocurrency. This has compelled me to write this script and article, to help provide a quantitative/technical perspective on why I believe most strategies people write for crypto fail catastrophically, and how one might build measures within their strategies that help reduce the risk of that happening. For those that don't trade crypto, know that these approaches are applicable to any market.
I will start off by qualifying up that I mainly trade stocks and ETFs, and I believe that if you trade crypto, you should only be playing with money you are okay with losing. Most published crypto strategies I have seen "work" when the market is going up, and fail catastrophically when it is not. There are far more people trying to sell you a strategy than there are people providing 5-10+ year backtest results on their strategies, with slippage and commissions included, showing how they generated alpha and beat buy/hold. I understand that this community has some really talented people that can create some really awesome things, but I am saying that the vast majority of what you find on the internet will not be strategies that create alpha over the long term.
So, why do so many of these strategies fail?
There is an assumption many people make that cryptocurrency will act just like stocks and ETFs, and it does not. ETF returns have more of a Gaussian probability distribution. Because of this, ETFs have a short term mean reverting behavior that can be capitalized on consistently. Many technical indicators are built to take advantage of this on the equities market. Many people apply them to crypto. Many of those people are drawn down 60-70% right now while there are mean reversion strategies up YTD on equities, even though the equities market is down. Crypto has many more "tail events" that occur 3-4+ standard deviations from the mean.
There is a correlation in many equities and ETF markets for how long an asset continues to do well when it is currently doing well. This is known as momentum, and that correlation and time-horizon is different for different assets. Many technical indicators are built based on this behavior, and then people apply them to cryptocurrency with little risk management assuming they behave the same and and on the same time horizon, without pulling in the statistics to verify if that is actually the case. They do not.
People do not take into account the brokerage commissions and slippage. Brokerage commissions are particularly high with cryptocurrency. The irony here isn't lost to me. When you factor in trading costs, it blows up most short-term trading strategies that might otherwise look profitable.
There is an assumption that it will "always come back" and that you "HODL" through the crash and "buy more." This is why Three Arrows Capital, a $10 billion dollar crypto hedge fund is now in bankruptcy, and no one can find the owners. This is also why many that trade crypto are drawn down 60-70% right now. There are bad risk practices in place, like thinking the martingale gambling strategy is the same as dollar cost averaging while also using those terms interchangeably. They are not the same. The 1st will blow up your trade account, and the 2nd will reduce timing risk. Many people are systematically blowing up their trade accounts/strategies by using martingale and calling it dollar cost averaging. The more risk you are exposing yourself too, the more important your risk management strategy is.
There is an odd assumption some have that you can buy anything and win with technical/quantitative analysis. Technical analysis does not tell you what you should buy, it just tells you when. If you are running a strategy that is going long on an asset that lost 80% of its value in the last year, then your strategy is probably down. That same strategy might be up on a different asset. One might consider a different methodology on choosing assets to trade.
Lastly, most strategies are over-fit, or curve-fit. The more complicated and more parameters/settings you have in your model, the more likely it is just fit to historical data and will not perform similar in live trading. This is one of the reasons why I like simple models with few parameters. They are less likely to be over-fit to historical data. If the strategy only works with 1 set of parameters, and there isn't a range of parameters around it that create alpha, then your strategy is over-fit and is probably not suitable for live trading.
So, what can I do about all of this!?
I created the VIDYA Trend Strategy to provide an example of how one might create a basic model with a basic risk management strategy that might generate long term alpha on a volatile asset, like cryptocurrency. This is one (of many) risk management strategies that can reduce the volatility of your returns when trading any asset. I chose the Variable Index Dynamic Average (VIDYA) for this example because it's calculation filters out some market noise by taking into account the volatility of the underlying asset. I chose a trend following strategy because regressions are capturing behaviors that are not just specific to the equities market.
The more volatile an asset, the more you have to back-off the short term price movement to effectively trend-follow it. Otherwise, you are constantly buying into short term trends that don't represent the trend of the asset, then they reverse and loose money. This is why I am applying a trend following strategy to a 4 hour chart and not a 4 minute chart. It is also important to note that following these long term trends on a volatile asset exposes you to additional risk. So, how might one mitigate some of that risk?
One of the ways of reducing timing risk is scaling into a trade. This is different from "doubling down" or "trippling down." It is really a basic application of dollar cost averaging to reduce timing risk, although DCA would typically happen over a longer time period. If it is really a trend you are following, it will probably still be a trend tomorrow. Trend following strategies have lower win rates because the beginning of a trend often reverses. The more volatile the asset, the more likely that is to happen. However, we can reduce risk of buying into a reversal by slowly scaling into the trend with a small % of equity per trade.
Our example "VIDYA Trend Strategy" executes this by looking at a medium-term, volatility adjusted trend on a 4 hour chart. The script scales into it with 4% of the account equity every 4-hours that the trend is still up. This means you become fully invested after 25 trades/bars. It also means that early in the trade, when you might be more likely to experience a reversal, most of your account equity is not invested and those losses are much smaller. The script sells 100% of the position when it detects a trend reversal. The slower you scale into a trade, the less volatile your equity curve will be. This model also includes slippage and commissions that you can adjust under the "settings" menu.
This fundamental concept of reducing timing risk by scaling into a trade can be applied to any market.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas that can be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
Strategy
Breakout Probability (Expo)█ Overview
Breakout Probability is a valuable indicator that calculates the probability of a new high or low and displays it as a level with its percentage. The probability of a new high and low is backtested, and the results are shown in a table— a simple way to understand the next candle's likelihood of a new high or low. In addition, the indicator displays an additional four levels above and under the candle with the probability of hitting these levels.
The indicator helps traders to understand the likelihood of the next candle's direction, which can be used to set your trading bias.
█ Calculations
The algorithm calculates all the green and red candles separately depending on whether the previous candle was red or green and assigns scores if one or more lines were reached. The algorithm then calculates how many candles reached those levels in history and displays it as a percentage value on each line.
█ Example
In this example, the previous candlestick was green; we can see that a new high has been hit 72.82% of the time and the low only 28.29%. In this case, a new high was made.
█ Settings
Percentage Step
The space between the levels can be adjusted with a percentage step. 1% means that each level is located 1% above/under the previous one.
Disable 0.00% values
If a level got a 0% likelihood of being hit, the level is not displayed as default. Enable the option if you want to see all levels regardless of their values.
Number of Lines
Set the number of levels you want to display.
Show Statistic Panel
Enable this option if you want to display the backtest statistics for that a new high or low is made. (Only if the first levels have been reached or not)
█ Any Alert function call
An alert is sent on candle open, and you can select what should be included in the alert. You can enable the following options:
Ticker ID
Bias
Probability percentage
The first level high and low price
█ How to use
This indicator is a perfect tool for anyone that wants to understand the probability of a breakout and the likelihood that set levels are hit.
The indicator can be used for setting a stop loss based on where the price is most likely not to reach.
The indicator can help traders to set their bias based on probability. For example, look at the daily or a higher timeframe to get your trading bias, then go to a lower timeframe and look for setups in that direction.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Indicator
