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Gold at $4,355: Breakout or Pullback?
Gold remains structurally bullish on H1, but price is now trading directly beneath a major external high at 4,370.607.
That makes the current area interesting — but not necessarily attractive for chasing longs.
📊 H1 Structure
The bullish structure remains intact:
Higher highs + higher lows
Price holding above the rising support trendline
Previous bullish displacement remains valid
Price is approaching external buy-side liquidity
Current location = premium
The key level is 4,370.607.
A clean H1 close above this level would confirm that buyers are still in control and could trigger a liquidity expansion toward 4,400–4,410.
But there is another possibility.
⚠️ The Pullback Scenario
If Gold sweeps or rejects 4,370.607, the first area I would watch is:
Decision Zone: 4,300–4,310
This is the critical H1 reaction area.
If buyers defend it → bullish continuation remains the preferred scenario.
If price loses it → the market could rebalance toward:
Internal Support: 4,225–4,240
And if the correction becomes deeper:
Discount Zone: 4,185–4,200
This would actually create a much cleaner location for looking for bullish confirmation.
📰 Macro Catalyst
The latest US labor report showed -23K payroll growth in July, with unemployment at 4.1%. Wage growth was 3.2% YoY. The softer labor backdrop has helped keep the Gold bid alive.
But the next major test comes quickly:
CPI — Aug 12
PPI — Aug 13
Both releases can significantly change USD/yield expectations and therefore Gold volatility.
🎯 Trading Map
Bullish Scenario
H1 closes above 4,370.607
→ BSL taken
→ Momentum expansion
→ 4,400–4,410
Pullback Scenario
Rejection from 4,370.607
→ retracement into 4,300–4,310
→ bullish reaction
→ continuation toward 4,370 → 4,400
Bearish Shift
H1 loses 4,300–4,310
→ 4,225–4,240
→ deeper discount 4,185–4,200
What do you think — 4,370 breakout first, or 4,200 retracement first? 
Short
Gold Rejects Key Moving Averages: Is a Deeper Correction?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) has successfully broken below the Support Lines and recently tested the 100_SMA(Daily) and 21_SMA(Weekly).
However, the price failed to break above these key moving averages and started to decline with strong bearish momentum.
Can gold reclaim $4,400, or is a deeper corrective move already underway?
Technical Analysis
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed its Primary Wave 5, suggesting that a broader corrective phase to the downside may now be beginning.
The rejection from the 100_SMA(Daily) and 21_SMA(Weekly), combined with the breakdown of the Support Lines, further strengthens the bearish scenario.
💡 Educational Note: After the completion of a Five-Wave Impulsive Structure, Elliott Wave theory typically expects a corrective phase, often developing in an A-B-C structure.
I expect gold to decline at least toward $4,341. If bearish momentum increases, the correction could extend toward $4,315.
Trade Setup
First Take Profit(TP): $4,341
Second Take Profit(TP): $4,320
Third Take Profit(TP): $4,299
Stop Loss(SL): $4,410(Worst)
Key Trading Level: $4,342
Which level do you think gold will reach first?
🔴 $4,299
🟢 $4,410
📌 Gold Analysis(XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame
🛑 Always use proper risk management and set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position.
🚀 If this analysis helps your trading plan, a BOOST would help more traders discover it. Short 
GOLD - Retest of 4400. Waiting for a false breakout ICMARKETS:XAUUSD is showing local bullish momentum, but price is approaching a major resistance zone at 4382–4400. At the same time, the U.S. dollar remains weak, although its current consolidation continues to create pressure across the markets
The fundamental backdrop remains unstable. Geopolitical risks continue to support the dollar, while expectations for further Fed rate hikes have weakened. Against this mixed backdrop, gold remains within a broader bearish trend.
Gold is consolidating inside the 4300–4382 range while preparing for a potential retest of the recent high. Technically, continued dollar weakness could allow gold to rebound from 4330 toward 4400. However, profit-taking around 4380–4400, followed by a false breakout, could trigger a reversal.
Bullish drivers: Weaker-than-expected inflation data, Continued U.S. dollar weakness, Lower rate expectations
Bearish drivers: U.S. dollar strengthening, Rising oil prices and inflation expectations, Profit-taking ahead of the CPI report
Resistance levels: 4371, 4382, 4400
Support levels: 4327, 4313, 4302
A short squeeze through the resistance zone followed by a bearish reversal pattern could trigger a pullback or even reverse the current local bullish momentum.
However, an unexpected fundamental catalyst or a sustained close above 4400 could invalidate the bearish setup and open the way toward 4450–4475.
Best regards,
R. Linda Short 
XAUUSD: Bullish Trend Continues After BreakoutGold is showing a strong bullish continuation after breaking away from the previous downtrend structure. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD has already formed a clean 5-wave recovery pattern on the H4 timeframe, and the market may continue higher if the next correction stays controlled.
The key idea is simple: gold is bullish, but after a strong rally, a short-term ABC pullback may create a cleaner continuation setup.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold broke above the downtrend line and pushed strongly into the 4,346 area. This breakout is important because it confirms that sellers are no longer controlling the short-term structure.
Price is now trading near the end point of the bullish wave structure around 4,358. This area may create short-term hesitation, so a correction from here would be normal.
The main support to watch is 4,235. This is marked as the short-term ABC correction zone. If gold pulls back into this area and buyers defend it, the next bullish wave may continue towards the weekly liquidity resistance around 4,455.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,346: current price reaction area
◌ 4,358: end point of current bullish wave structure
◌ 4,235: short-term ABC correction / main buy reaction zone
◌ 4,162: contested price acceptance zone
◌ 4,455: weekly resistance and liquidity target
◌ Below 4,162: area where the bullish setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a strong bullish 5-wave move after breaking the old downtrend.
Wave 1 started the first recovery from the lower base.
Wave 2 created a controlled correction.
Wave 3 pushed strongly higher and confirmed bullish momentum.
Wave 4 held structure before the next expansion.
Wave 5 is now reaching the 4,346–4,358 area.
After wave 5, an ABC correction is normal. If wave C finishes around 4,235 and buyers protect this area, gold may prepare for another bullish continuation towards 4,455.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to correct into support and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,235–4,250 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed ABC low or below 4,162
Take profit 1: 4,346–4,358
Take profit 2: 4,400
Take profit 3: 4,455
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,358 without a deep pullback and holds strongly, price may continue directly towards 4,455. In that case, waiting for a retest of 4,358 as support would be the cleaner continuation setup.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the main trend is still bullish after the downtrend breakout. Gold has already shown strong buying pressure, but the market is now near an important reaction zone.
The best plan is patience. If gold corrects into 4,235 and buyers defend the zone, the next bullish move may continue towards the weekly liquidity target.
Gold remains in a bullish continuation structure.
If the ABC correction holds, the next upside target is 4,455. Long 
Long
Long
Amazon Stock Analysis: AMZN Elliott Wave OutlookAmazon Stock Analysis: Long-Term Structure, Elliott Wave and Key Price Zones
Amazon stock has just made a new higher high, while the larger AMZN technical structure remains inside a rising channel that has guided price for almost two decades.
In this analysis, I will start with the monthly chart, then move down to the weekly and daily timeframes. The goal is to understand where Amazon may be inside its larger Elliott Wave structure, where the current advance could extend, and which price areas become important if a correction begins.
The Long-Term Amazon Stock Structure
Amazon has been moving inside a large rising channel since around 2007.
Price is still trading inside this structure, so at this stage I do not see evidence of a confirmed long-term reversal.
The Elliott Wave count also suggests that the larger bullish structure is still developing.
For readers who are new to Elliott Wave, an impulse consists of five waves, and each of those waves can contain a smaller five-wave structure of its own. This is why several different wave degrees and colors appear on the chart.
The important point is simple: the completion of one smaller wave does not automatically mean the entire long-term Amazon advance is complete.
Where Is AMZN in the Larger Elliott Wave Count?
On the larger count, Amazon is still developing wave three of the highest-degree structure shown on my chart.
Inside it, the smaller orange structure is also developing wave three, while the yellow and green degrees are further along in their respective impulses.
There is therefore still a considerable amount of structure that can develop before the entire long-term sequence is complete.
The upper part of the long-term channel is currently much higher than the market, around the $560–600 area on this projection.
I do not treat that channel boundary as a price target. It simply shows that the larger technical structure still leaves substantial room above the current price.
Amazon Has Made a New Higher High
The current price action is still constructive.
AMZN recently moved above its previous high and reached a new high around $287.
The latest advance is not especially aggressive, but the breakout keeps further upside development possible.
At the smaller Elliott Wave degree, I am currently following a fifth wave. The exact length of a fifth wave cannot be known in advance, so Fibonacci gives us a useful reference rather than an exact target.
Fibonacci Projection: $300–400
For the current fifth wave, the Fibonacci projection zone around 38% to 62% gives an approximate area of $300–400 .
This is the first major upside area I am watching.
It should be treated as a potential wave-completion zone rather than a fixed ceiling. An extended fifth wave can continue beyond it, and the much larger rising channel still leaves room for higher prices.
Key Amazon Support Areas if a Correction Begins
If the current advance eventually moves into a larger correction, I would focus on a sequence of price areas rather than one exact downside target.
The main zones on my chart are:
$200–250 , first major support cluster
$150–180 , next lower structural area
$110–130 , deeper support cluster
$85–100 , major lower historical area
These are not predictions that Amazon must fall to each level.
They are reference areas where I would reassess the price structure if a larger decline develops. If price remains above the higher zones, there is no reason to automatically focus on the much lower ones.
A Small Daily Gap Below Price
There is also a shorter-term detail on the daily chart.
The latest move left a small gap below the current price.
Amazon could return into this area during a pullback and test the recent breakout region before another move higher.
The gap does not have to close, so I would treat it simply as another nearby area to monitor.
The Bigger Structure Has Changed Very Little
I mapped this larger Amazon structure approximately a year ago.
Since then, price has continued to move and several smaller waves have developed, but the main higher-timeframe interpretation has not required a major change.
That is one reason I prefer to begin with monthly and weekly charts. Short-term price movement can be substantial while the larger market structure develops much more slowly.
What Could Happen Later?
The larger Elliott Wave structure can continue through several additional advances and corrections.
Eventually, a much larger fourth-wave correction can develop on the higher degree.
On a monthly chart, that type of correction may appear as a broad sideways structure.
But "sideways" does not mean low volatility.
Price can decline sharply, recover strongly, decline again and continue moving through a very wide range for several years.
Tesla Shows What a Large Sideways Structure Can Look Like
I recently discussed a similar concept in my Tesla analysis.
Tesla is already further along in this type of large corrective structure. Since 2022, the stock has moved through an extremely wide range while making relatively little progress on the larger chart.
If you want a visual example of what I mean by a multi-year sideways correction, you can watch that analysis here:
Amazon Stock Outlook: What Matters Now
For now, the long-term Amazon stock structure remains upward.
AMZN is still trading inside its rising channel and has recently made a new higher high.
The main areas I am watching are:
$300–400 , current Fibonacci projection zone for the developing fifth wave
$560–600 , approximate upper region of the larger long-term channel, not a fixed target
$200–250 , first major support area if a larger correction develops
$150–180 , next lower structural zone
$110–130 and $85–100 , deeper support areas if the correction becomes substantially larger
The current higher high keeps the upside structure active, while the Fibonacci projection and support zones give us a map for monitoring what develops next. 
Long
Wave III?Crude Oil: Wave III?
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the move from the 70.225 low to approximately 96.128 appears to have developed as a complete five-wave Impulse, which can be considered Wave (1) of a higher degree.
The market then entered a corrective phase that appears to have completed around the 77–80 area, with the structure remaining consistent with a Classic Zigzag. From this point, the primary focus shifts toward the developing bullish structure.
The recent advance from the corrective low also appears to have formed an internal five-wave Impulse, strengthening the bullish interpretation.
Aggressive Scenario
Under the first scenario, the recent advance may represent Wave (1) of a larger Wave III, with the current correction developing as Wave (2).
If this interpretation is correct, the market could enter an Expanded Wave Three, where Wave III may extend significantly in both price and momentum.
A break above the Base Channel and the relevant structural resistance would provide the first important confirmation of this scenario.
The current extended target is around 109.722.
However, there is another structural possibility.
The market may develop a nested 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 structure across different degrees within this area. Such a development could require more time to complete and may produce several smaller corrective phases before the larger Wave III begins to accelerate.
Conservative Scenario
The second scenario remains valid.
If the current structure fails to break higher and develops into a deeper correction, the market could still be forming a larger Zigzag.
In that case, the current movement would represent only part of a larger correction, meaning Wave (2) would not yet be complete.
Therefore, as long as price remains above the key invalidation levels, the bullish scenario remains favored. However, a break below 77.715 would provide an important warning that the structure may be changing, while a break below 70.225 would seriously challenge the broader bullish interpretation.
Conclusion
At this stage, the aggressive scenario appears more compelling, because the initial advance from the low has developed as a five-wave Impulse and could be the beginning of a larger Wave III.
However, the market may first develop additional nested 1-2 structures, requiring more time before the primary advance accelerates.
The objective is not to predict the market with certainty, but to identify the structures that remain valid and allow price action to confirm or invalidate them.
If the Base Channel breaks and the bullish structure continues to develop, the probability of the aggressive scenario will increase.
Conversely, a break of the key invalidation levels would shift attention toward the conservative scenario and the possibility of a larger Zigzag.
Ultimately, the structure that the market develops from here will determine the correct scenario.
Price comes first; the wave count comes second.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
CFDs on Crude Oil (Brent)
4 days ago
Is Wave 3 Beginning, or Is One More Correction Still Ahead?
Long
RBOB Gasoline | Is Wave III About to Begin?Under the aggressive scenario, we consider Waves (I) and (II) to represent the largest degree in the current count. Following a major correction in the previous cycle, the market entered a new bullish phase. From our perspective, the price action at the beginning of 2026 can be interpreted as a sharp and fast Classic Impulse, potentially forming Wave I of this new degree.
At present, Wave II has reached the vicinity of Wave 4 of the initial impulse. This is an important structural area and could mark the end of the correction. However, we cannot rule out further downside. The market may develop a sideways structure to consume more time, or even make a deeper retracement before revealing its next direction.
On the other hand, if Wave II has already completed in this area, the next move could mark the beginning of Wave III. We would expect this wave to display a meaningful increase in strength and momentum compared with the previous corrective phases. During its early development, the market could form nested 1s and 2s across multiple degrees, potentially creating the foundation for a powerful third wave.
Therefore, we are currently watching two primary possibilities: either Wave III is beginning, or Wave II still requires a more complex structure to complete its correction. Future price action and the quality of the next move will be critical in distinguishing between these scenarios.
The behavior of crude oil is also particularly important when analyzing gasoline. Since gasoline is one of crude oil's primary refined products, it would be difficult to expect crude oil to enter a sustained bullish advance while gasoline simultaneously develops a significant independent bearish trend. This does not mean they must move identically; rather, we expect their structural relationship and correlation to become evident during larger market movements.
If crude oil begins a new bullish advance, gasoline may follow—perhaps at the same time, slightly earlier, or with a modest delay. Even if their timing differs, continued strength in crude oil could increase the probability of further upside in gasoline. This is our interpretation based on the observed behavior and structure of these two markets, not an absolute rule without exceptions.
From our perspective, crude oil and gasoline show considerable structural similarities throughout the current cycle. However, gasoline appears to move with greater acceleration during certain phases and may sometimes respond more aggressively after the initial move appears in crude oil. This may simply reflect the structural characteristics and correlation between the two markets.
Ultimately, what matters now is price action. We do not want to force a structure onto the market. The scenarios are derived from the structure currently visible, and the market itself must determine which one will be validated.
If Wave II completes around this area, our focus shifts toward the beginning and development of Wave III. If the correction continues, we will follow the possibility of a more complex Wave II structure.
Waves are not merely labels on a chart; they are the language of market structure. Sometimes, within the noise and fluctuations, a fractal pattern emerges—and if we listen carefully, the market itself begins to reveal its potential path through the language of waves.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 
Long
Crude Oil: Is a Larger Wave III Beginning?From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current structure suggests that Waves I and II of the current degree may be complete, placing the market at a critical stage.
Wave I developed as a five-wave Impulse, followed by Wave II unfolding as a corrective structure. Therefore, under the aggressive scenario, the current structure may be preparing to enter Wave III, which, if confirmed, would be expected to develop with greater strength and momentum than the initial wave.
The initial advance from the recent low appears to have formed a five-wave Impulse. This is one of the main reasons why, at this stage, the aggressive scenario appears more likely.
If the initial invalidation level holds, we would expect price to continue higher and, by breaking above the corrective channel and the nearby structural resistance, provide confirmation that Wave III is developing.
However, the market may also develop a nested 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 structure across different degrees within this area. Such a structure could require more time to complete and may create several smaller corrective phases before the larger Wave III begins to accelerate.
Another possibility is that the initial wave from the recent low is actually part of a larger extended Wave III. If so, the bullish advance could continue with significantly greater strength.
Therefore, the initial invalidation level remains important. As long as it holds, the aggressive scenario remains the more likely interpretation.
However, if the highlighted invalidation levels are broken, the conservative scenario becomes active. Under this interpretation, the current structure may represent part of a larger-degree Wave (II), which, as discussed in my previous Daily Crude Oil analysis, could be unfolding as a Classic Zigzag and may require additional time and price movement to complete.
For those who have followed my previous long-term Crude Oil analysis, this is the same black Conservative Scenario presented in that Daily analysis, and it remains valid until invalidated.
At the end of this analysis, I have shared both scenarios together so that the market can determine which structure is actually developing. I have also included my previous Daily Crude Oil analysis for additional context.
At this stage, there is no need to force either scenario onto the market.
Ultimately, it will be the structure that the market develops from here that determines the correct scenario.
Price comes first; the wave count comes second.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
CFDs on Crude Oil (Brent)
Jul 29
Is Wave 3 Beginning, or Is One More Zigzag Still Ahead?
4 days ago
Is Wave 3 Beginning, or Is One More Correction Still Ahead?
Long
Long 
DXY | The Diagonal Test DXY | The Diagonal Test 🌀
In this update, our focus remains on the Aggressive Scenario—a higher-degree interpretation in which the recent structure may represent either Wave (C) or Wave (III).
A closer examination of the 4-hour chart suggests that the current structure could initially be interpreted as a Double Zigzag. However, the ongoing price development also raises the possibility that the market is building a Leading Diagonal.
At this stage, the more compelling structural interpretation is a Leading Diagonal with a 3-3-3-3-3 subdivision. The recent decline also appears internally impulsive and could represent part of Wave (C) or Wave (III) at a higher degree.
If this structure continues to develop as expected, we should see the Leading Diagonal complete, followed by a distinct corrective phase. The market's behavior during that correction will be critical, as its depth and structure may provide valuable information about the true degree and position of the pattern within the larger count.
Once the diagonal is complete, the following correction could develop at least as a Simple Zigzag for Wave (IV). There is also a possibility that a Double Zigzag could function as Wave (X) at a higher degree. Therefore, we are not forcing the market into a predefined pattern; we are allowing price action to reveal the structure.
The Conservative Scenario has not been invalidated, but for now it is no longer our primary focus. Our analytical priority remains the Aggressive Scenario and the behavior of price within the current structure.
The major invalidation level remains critical. If price breaks through that area and subsequently develops a valid motive structure, it could provide the first meaningful green light for the Conservative Scenario.
Even then, however, a price break alone will not be sufficient. We must examine the corrective structure that follows the motive move and determine whether it conforms to the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle.
For now, the Conservative Scenario is being set aside through Wave (B), while the Aggressive Scenario remains under active observation.
We are not trying to force the market to fit our count.
We observe the structure, maintain the valid alternatives, and allow price action to determine what pattern the market is actually building.
Ultimately, everything comes back to one principle:
Structure First — Scenario Second.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🌀📊
U.S. Dollar Currency Index
Jun 5
The DXY Time Paradox: Monday Engineering & Elliott Wave Dissecti
Jun 7
DXY Structural Analysis: Navigating the Diagonal
Long
Long 
Elliott wave analysis for NAS100.I wanted to focus on the corrective structures that have occurred after the October 2022 bottom.
Liberation Day gave us a zigzag, truncated C wave and sharp reversal to the upside.
5 months of price action from October 2025-March 2026 gave us a regular flat, ending diagonal C wave, and sharp reversal upward.
June-July 2026 could be interpreted as another regular flat, but I am suspicious of two flats in a row. With the law of alternation, two flats would need to be interpreted as a 1/2, 1/2 rather than a 1/2/3/4. This would be very bullish, and price above 30758.3 and then 32711.1 would certainly go a long way to confirm that, and the bull market would then have many months left to it.
As long as price remains below the ATH of 30758.3, I remain suspicious that the top is in, and short positions entered near ATHs have an excellent risk/reward ratio. The anticipated structure would still be a flat, just of higher degree and with a large C down. Bears see a complete impulsive wave off of October 2022 low, 1>3>5, and bearish target towards Liberation day low of 16324.1 to complete the corrective structure. 
Short
Long
