Market Concepts · Lesson 08 — Structure Quality: Strong vs WeakLesson 8 - Structure Quality: Strong vs Weak Levels and Trend-Flip Signals
Difficulty: Advanced
Not every high and low on the chart carries the same weight. Some are landmarks the market defends fiercely. Others are just noise waiting to be swept. Learning to tell them apart is what turns a basic understanding of structure into a real trading edge.
🔵 WHY NOT ALL HIGHS AND LOWS ARE EQUAL
Every trader learns early on to mark swing highs and swing lows on their chart. What most traders never learn is that these levels don't all mean the same thing.
Some swing points get respected repeatedly, holding as support or resistance for weeks. Others get taken out within hours, barely leaving a trace. The difference between them isn't random — it comes down to what the market did around that level when it was forming, and what kind of protection it has built around it since.
Understanding this difference lets you focus your attention on the levels that actually matter, and skip the ones that are more likely to fail.
🔵 WHAT MAKES A HIGH OR LOW "STRONG"
A strong high or low is one the market has structurally defended. Here's what that looks like in practice:
- A strong high sits at the top of a decisive rejection — price approached the level, got firmly rejected, and the market never traded above it again since. Below it, there's a clear structural low that hasn't been broken
- A strong low is the mirror image — a decisive rejection at the bottom, followed by a clear structural high above it that's still holding
The key word is "protected." A strong level is one that has structure guarding it from being invalidated. If the market has to break through several layers of price action just to challenge it, that level is meaningful.
🔵 WHAT MAKES A HIGH OR LOW "WEAK"
A weak high or low is one that has already been technically compromised. The market hasn't respected the structure around it — either the previous structural low was broken before this high was made, or price is already trading in a way that suggests the level is vulnerable.
Weak highs and lows often form when:
- The market makes a new high, but the previous higher-low was already broken beforehand
- The rejection at the level is shallow or half-hearted — no strong candle, no follow-through
- Price is drifting toward the level rather than being decisively rejected from it
These levels are structurally exposed. They're much more likely to be swept for liquidity or taken out entirely, because there's nothing meaningful holding them up.
🔵 HOW STRONG AND WEAK LEVELS BEHAVE DIFFERENTLY
The practical difference between the two shows up in how price interacts with them:
Strong levels tend to produce clean, decisive reactions on the first test. Price approaches, gets rejected, and moves away with real momentum. Here's what that looks like when a strong high holds firm on its first test:
While the strong high is being respected, the weak low sitting below has none of the same protection — the market has already given clear signs it's structurally exposed:
And this is exactly what tends to happen next — the weak level gets swept for liquidity, price wicks below it to grab stops, and then the character of the move shifts:
Recognizing which type of level you're looking at changes how you approach it: do you fade the level (strong), or do you wait for the sweep and then trade the reversal (weak)?
🔵 TREND-FLIP SIGNALS: WHEN THE STORY CHANGES
The most important use of strong and weak level classification is spotting genuine trend reversals in real time.
Here's the sequence to watch for:
- A trend has been printing strong highs and lows in one direction — real conviction, protected structure
- Then a shift happens: the market prints a level in the opposite direction that gets protected. A new strong low appears in what was a downtrend, or a new strong high forms in what was an uptrend
- When that new level in the opposite direction becomes structurally defended, the trend hasn't just paused — the character of the market has genuinely flipped
This is different from just spotting a ChoCH. A ChoCH tells you something shifted. Watching for a new strong level in the opposite direction tells you whether that shift has real weight behind it.
🔵 COMMON MISTAKES TO AVOID
- Treating every swing high or low as equally important without checking whether structure protects it
- Fading weak levels expecting them to hold, when they were structurally exposed from the start
- Sweeping strong levels expecting a reversal, when the level was protected enough that a real break signals continuation, not reversal
- Ignoring the difference between "the market flipped" and "the market paused" — a ChoCH alone is a pause; a new strong level in the opposite direction is a real flip
🐳 PRO TIPS
- The cleanest reversal setups tend to combine a fresh strong level in the opposite direction with a higher-timeframe zone at the same area — structure and location aligning
- Weak highs and lows are often exactly where liquidity sits, which is useful when planning where the next sweep might happen
- Strong levels on higher timeframes carry disproportionate weight compared to strong levels on lower timeframes — a strong daily high is much more meaningful than a strong 15m high
- When a level classified as strong finally breaks, the trade often isn't the break itself, but the retest of that broken level as it flips roles
Being able to read the difference between strong and weak structure is one of the deeper skills in market structure, and it takes time to build the eye for it.
Market Concepts — All Lessons
Lesson 01 — What Order Blocks Are
Lesson 02 — Zone Strength Isn't About Size
Lesson 03 — Entering Trades With Order Blocks
Lesson 04 — Old Order Blocks As New S/R
Lesson 05 — Breaker Blocks
Lesson 06 — HTF Blocks With LTF Entries
Lesson 07 — BOS vs Change of Character
Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳 
Education
Gold Rejects Key Moving Averages: Is a Deeper Correction?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) has successfully broken below the Support Lines and recently tested the 100_SMA(Daily) and 21_SMA(Weekly).
However, the price failed to break above these key moving averages and started to decline with strong bearish momentum.
Can gold reclaim $4,400, or is a deeper corrective move already underway?
Technical Analysis
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed its Primary Wave 5, suggesting that a broader corrective phase to the downside may now be beginning.
The rejection from the 100_SMA(Daily) and 21_SMA(Weekly), combined with the breakdown of the Support Lines, further strengthens the bearish scenario.
💡 Educational Note: After the completion of a Five-Wave Impulsive Structure, Elliott Wave theory typically expects a corrective phase, often developing in an A-B-C structure.
I expect gold to decline at least toward $4,341. If bearish momentum increases, the correction could extend toward $4,315.
Trade Setup
First Take Profit(TP): $4,341
Second Take Profit(TP): $4,320
Third Take Profit(TP): $4,299
Stop Loss(SL): $4,410(Worst)
Key Trading Level: $4,342
Which level do you think gold will reach first?
🔴 $4,299
🟢 $4,410
📌 Gold Analysis(XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame
🛑 Always use proper risk management and set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position.
🚀 If this analysis helps your trading plan, a BOOST would help more traders discover it. 
Short
Long
GOLD - The news could trigger a long squeezeICMARKETS:XAUUSD is consolidating within the 4355–4435 range, while the U.S. dollar remains largely stagnant ahead of the upcoming CPI data. Until the release, the market may remain trapped inside the current range while preparing for a potential liquidity manipulation
The U.S. Dollar Index is also consolidating as traders wait for the CPI report. Gold has stalled ahead of this key inflation data, and the initial reaction to CPI could be short-lived as geopolitical risks remain elevated.
A weaker-than-expected CPI could open the door to new highs, while hotter inflation data could trigger a corrective move. The market is waiting for a clear catalyst.
Bullish drivers: Weaker CPI, A weaker U.S. dollar, Lower expectations for further rate hikes, Geopolitical de-escalation
Bearish drivers: Hotter-than-expected CPI, Hawkish Fed rhetoric, A stronger U.S. dollar, Geopolitical escalation
Gold remains in a bullish phase, but news-driven volatility could create a liquidity sweep / long squeeze before the next directional move
Resistance levels: 4435, 4481
Support levels: 4356, 4313, 4302
Gold remains in a bullish phase. However, news-driven volatility could create a liquidity sweep / long squeeze before the next continuation move.
The key zones to watch are 4350 and 4313. A false breakdown of either level, followed by consolidation back above it, could become the technical catalyst for another bullish impulse.
Best regards,
R. Linda Long 
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to the 4162.99 support area.Following the strong advance in GOLD, the current corrective structure appears to be approaching its final stage.
The price is developing within higher-degree wave "B". Inside it, intermediate wave "C" is nearing completion through the final stages of the smaller wave "5".
However, one more move higher cannot be ruled out. If the smaller wave "5" is not complete yet, GOLD may continue toward the resistance area around 4350.62. This is where the entire corrective structure could eventually form its top.
Once waves "B", "C", and "5" are complete, I expect GOLD to reverse and begin moving lower. My first target is the support area around 4162.99.
The key reference within this area is the smaller wave "1" high at 4168.50. The price previously broke decisively above this level, so the same zone may become the first significant support during a pullback.
This setup is not intended to capture the entire potential decline in advance. I first want to see how the price reacts around 4162.99 before evaluating the developing structure and any lower targets.
Gold is ending the week with strong gains, so taking a position against the current upward momentum requires particular caution. The upcoming U.S. employment report may also cause additional volatility by affecting expectations for Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. dollar, and Treasury yields.
Manage your capital properly and wisely! Enter trades only based on reliable patterns! Short 
XAUUSD: Bullish Trend Still Holds Above 4,280
Gold is still holding a strong bullish structure after the sharp recovery from the lower accumulation base. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be moving through a short-term ABC correction before continuing higher towards the Fibonacci resistance target.
The key idea is simple: gold remains bullish overall, but price may need a healthy pullback before the next upside wave becomes cleaner.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold made a strong impulsive move from the lower area and reached the 4,390–4,430 region. After that, price started to slow down near the Sell wave B zone, which is normal after a strong rally.
Current price is trading around 4,394. This area is close to short-term resistance, so Kelly would not chase buys directly here. A controlled correction into support would create a better setup.
The first reaction zone is around 4,340–4,360, marked as the Buy scalping area. If the correction becomes deeper, the stronger support is around 4,270–4,290, where the chart marks the Fibonacci buy zone and possible end of wave C.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,390–4,410: Sell wave B / current resistance reaction area
◌ 4,340–4,360: Buy scalping zone
◌ 4,270–4,290: Fibonacci buy zone / possible end wave C
◌ 4,520–4,540: Fibonacci 2.618 target resistance
◌ Below 4,270: area where the bullish setup starts to weaken
◌ Above 4,410: stronger bullish continuation confirmation
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a strong bullish impulse and may now be forming a corrective ABC structure.
Wave A may be the first pullback from the recent high.
Wave B is reacting near the 4,390–4,410 resistance area.
Wave C may still pull price lower towards 4,340–4,360 or deeper into 4,270–4,290.
If wave C ends inside the Fibonacci buy zone and buyers defend it, gold may continue into the next bullish wave towards the 4,520–4,540 Fibonacci resistance target.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to correct into support and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone 1: 4,340–4,360 if bullish reaction appears
Entry zone 2: 4,270–4,290 if deeper ABC correction happens
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave C low or below 4,250
Take profit 1: 4,410
Take profit 2: 4,450
Take profit 3: 4,520–4,540
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,270 with strong bearish pressure, the bullish ABC setup weakens. In that case, price may need more time to rebuild support before the next upward continuation.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the main trend is still bullish, but the market is now near a resistance zone after a strong rally. The better plan is patience.
If gold corrects into 4,340–4,360 or 4,270–4,290 and buyers defend the zone, the next bullish wave may continue towards the Fibonacci 2.618 target.
Gold remains in a bullish structure.
A clean ABC pullback may prepare the next move higher.
Share your view below.
Long 
Short
NAUFF - Is The Next Bullish Impulse Taking Shape?NAUFF remains within its broader bullish structure, although the stock has spent the past several months moving through a corrective phase.
What makes the current setup particularly interesting is that buyers have already reacted from a major technical intersection that previously acted as resistance and has now become an important support area. 🎯
Last month, NAUFF rejected the intersection of three major technical factors:
1️⃣ The historical support zone marked in blue
2️⃣ The psychological $1 round number
3️⃣ The 200 EMA acting as long-term dynamic support
📌 This confluence created an important decision zone, and so far, buyers have successfully defended it.
Momentum also started improving at the same time.
The RSI reached oversold territory and then crossed back above its signal line. Interestingly, the previous time a similar RSI setup developed earlier this year, OTC:NAUFF transitioned into a strong bullish impulse shortly afterward. 📊
The current crossover does not guarantee the same outcome, but it does suggest that bearish momentum has weakened and buyers are beginning to regain control.
From here, the next important level sits around the red structure near $1.50.
🎯 For the bulls to regain stronger control and confirm that a new bullish leg may be underway, NAUFF would need to break and hold above this resistance zone.
A confirmed breakout above $1.50 would strengthen the bullish structure and could open the door toward a retest of the previous major highs. 🐂
Meanwhile, if price pulls back again toward the blue support zone, we will continue watching for trend-following long setups as long as that support remains intact.
📌 Fundamentally, there has also been an important development since our previous analyses.
NevGold recently published its maiden Gold-Antimony Mineral Resource Estimate at the Limousine Butte Project in Nevada, defining:
• 29,600 tonnes of contained antimony Measured & Indicated at 0.26%
• 48,100 tonnes of contained antimony Inferred at 0.18%
• 181,400 ounces of gold Measured & Indicated
• 1,203,500 ounces of gold Inferred⛏️
This is an important project milestone because the market now has a defined resource base to evaluate rather than relying solely on exploration results.
NevGold also recently strengthened its board with the appointment of Scott Bensing, who brings extensive Nevada and U.S. federal government-relations experience as the company continues advancing strategic initiatives around Limo Butte.🌎
These developments do not guarantee a positive market outcome, but they provide a fresh fundamental backdrop while the technical structure begins showing signs of renewed strength.
In brief, NAUFF has already reacted from a major support intersection around $1, while RSI momentum is turning higher.
The next major technical confirmation would come from a break above the $1.50 resistance structure. Until then, the blue support zone remains the key area to watch for potential trend-following setups.📈
⚠️Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Technical conditions can change, and no outcome is guaranteed. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately.
📚Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr 
Long
XAUUSD – Gold Holds The Channel, But 4,438 Is The Next Real TestXAUUSD – Gold Holds The Channel, But 4,438 Is The Next Real Test
Gold is still holding a strong short-term bullish structure.
Price is currently trading around 4,388 after moving inside a clean rising channel. Buyers are still defending the trendline area, and the market has not shown a confirmed bearish break yet.
However, gold is now approaching an important resistance ladder. The next reaction around 4,438 and 4,487 will decide whether this bullish wave continues higher, or whether sellers start to create a deeper pullback.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains supported by strong demand from central banks and positive speculative positioning.
The latest market tone suggests that institutional demand is still active, while CTA and fund positioning remain supportive for precious metals. This shows that gold is not only moving from short-term technical momentum, but also from broader market confidence.
At the same time, inflation expectations, oil prices, and Fed policy remain important risks. If inflation data comes in hotter than expected or the Fed becomes more hawkish, gold may face pressure near resistance.
For now, the fundamental background still supports the bullish structure, but price is close to zones where reaction matters.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold is moving inside a rising channel with a clear higher-high and higher-low structure.
The current Buy Zone + trendline area around 4,389 is the key short-term support. As long as price holds this zone, buyers still have control.
The first upside level is the liquidity area around 4,416. If gold breaks and holds above this level, price may continue toward the Sell Scalping Resistance around 4,438.
Above that, the larger Fibonacci Sell Zone sits around 4,487. This is a stronger resistance area and may create a short-term reaction if buyers lose momentum there.
The structure is simple: gold is bullish while it holds the channel, but buying directly into resistance needs confirmation.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,388
Buy Zone + trendline: 4,389
Strong support: 4,356
Liquidity level: 4,416
Sell scalping resistance: 4,438
Fibonacci sell zone: 4,487
Bullish structure valid: Above 4,356
Short-term bullish confirmation: Above 4,416
Invalidation for bullish view: Below 4,356
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Priority View
Buy Zone: 4,356 – 4,389
Entry: Bullish reaction, trendline retest, liquidity sweep, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Below 4,356 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,416
TP2: 4,438
TP3: 4,487
Breakout Buy
Condition: Break and hold above 4,416
Target: 4,438 first, then 4,487 if momentum continues
Sell Scenario – Reaction From Resistance
Sell Zone: 4,438 – 4,487
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
SL: Above the rejection swing high
TP1: 4,416
TP2: 4,389
TP3: 4,356
Breakdown Sell
Condition: Clean break below 4,356
Target: Deeper correction below the rising channel
MY VIEW
Gold is still bullish, but the market is not in a perfect chasing area.
The rising channel is holding well, and buyers continue to defend the trendline. If gold stays above 4,356 – 4,389, the next upside path toward 4,416 and 4,438 remains open.
But I will watch carefully near 4,438 and 4,487. These are not small levels. They are resistance zones where sellers may try to react.
For now, gold still has bullish strength — but the next real confirmation is above 4,416.
If buyers break that level cleanly, 4,438 and 4,487 become the next targets. If price loses 4,356, the bullish channel becomes weaker.
Do you think gold can break above 4,416 and continue toward 4,487, or will sellers defend the Fibonacci resistance zone?
Long 
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD REBUILDS MOMENTUM AFTER PROFIT-TAKING BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD REBUILDS MOMENTUM AFTER PROFIT-TAKING
Gold has regained upside momentum after a mild pullback from profit-taking, following the recent 10-week high around 4,435. The market is still supported by the same fundamental story: US-Iran negotiations remain stuck, Hormuz reopening is still uncertain, and fresh attacks involving US-linked vessels and Iran-backed Houthi forces keep oil prices elevated.
Higher oil keeps inflation concerns alive, but buyers are not stepping away from gold. The reason is simple: after the weak July NFP report, traders are still hoping for a softer US inflation print, which could reduce expectations for another Fed rate hike in September.
So the chart is now showing a clear question:
Is gold only pausing after the rally, or preparing for another push into higher liquidity?
Technical structure
On the H1 chart, gold is still trading in a bullish recovery structure after reclaiming value from the lower Volume Profile base.
Price is currently around 4,387, above the main Buy zone POC at 4,347. This zone is the most important support for the current bullish structure. As long as gold holds above this level, buyers still have control.
Below that, the deeper Buy zone VAL around 4,310 is the larger value support. If price pulls back harder, this is the area where buyers may reload again.
Above current price, the weekly high at 4,435 is the first major upside test. If buyers break through that level with strong acceptance, gold can extend towards the Target zone around 4,460 - 4,470.
Important zones
Buy zone POC: 4,347
Main value support and preferred buy-reaction area.
Buy zone VAL: 4,310
Deeper support if gold needs a larger correction.
Weekly high: 4,435
First upside resistance and breakout level.
Target zone: 4,460 - 4,470
Next liquidity target if buyers continue momentum.
Trading scenario
Buy reaction from Buy zone POC 4,347
Entry:
Look for buy positions only if price pulls back into 4,340 - 4,350 and shows clear bullish rejection.
Stop Loss:
Below the Buy zone POC or below the local pullback structure.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,400
TP2: 4,435
TP3: 4,460 - 4,470 if buyers break the weekly high
This setup follows the current bullish value shift, but avoids chasing gold after the strong rebound.
Final view
Gold remains supported while price stays above 4,347.
The bullish structure is still alive, but the next confirmation comes from whether buyers can break the weekly high at 4,435.
If 4,347 holds, gold can continue towards 4,435 and possibly 4,460 - 4,470.
If 4,347 fails, the market may need a deeper reset towards 4,310 before the next clean reaction.
For now, the plan is simple: wait for value, watch the pullback, and follow the reaction.
Gold is bullish, but the best entry still comes from patience.
Long 
GOOGL | Deep Retrace Into A Stacked Buy Zone
By analyzing the #GOOGL (Alphabet) chart on the 1H timeframe, we can see a market in a healthy correction rather than a broken one. The higher timeframes remain firmly bullish, and price has pulled back into a region where three separate mechanisms overlap on the same prices. That is the setup, and the confirmation for it is specific.
Higher Timeframe Context
The larger trend is not in question. Price has printed bullish BOS on both the Daily and the 4H, and it continues to trade above the Protected Low at $314.32 . That level defines the entire structure and it has not been threatened.
What has happened is that the rally became extended, and the market is now correcting it. Corrections after impulsive advances tend to be deep, and this one has been. That depth is a function of how far price travelled, not a signal that the trend has failed.
1H Timeframe
On the hourly, the internal picture is where the detail sits. Price worked lower through a series of internal BOS, then printed a bullish iCHoCH — the first signal that the internal structure had turned back in favour of buyers.
Following that shift, price rallied into the buy-side liquidity at $384.35 and has since retraced. That retracement is what brought us here.
Price is currently trading around $343.77 , inside the region the chart marks as the Buy zone ($330.77 – $349.50) . This is the part worth pausing on. The zone is not a single mechanism — it is an FVG, an Order Block and a Flip zone occupying the same prices , running from the 0.236 retracement at $330.77 up to the 0.5 at $349.50 . When three independent reasons for demand overlap across the same band, the region carries far more weight than any one of them would alone.
Above price, the structure is laid out in clean steps: the 0.5 at $349.50 , then the 0.618 at $357.64 , then the 0.786, and above those the buy-side liquidity at $384.35 and $408.43 .
The Bias
Scenario A — the base case.
The structure suggests continuation higher from this region. Price is reacting from discount, inside a zone with three overlapping mechanisms, while the higher timeframe trend remains intact above the Protected Low. That is the profile of a correction being absorbed rather than a reversal forming.
The confirmation is specific, and it matters more than the zone itself. What I want to see is a candle close above the 0.618 at $357.64 on the 1H — and for that candle to leave a gap behind it. A close through the level tells us the level was taken. A gap left in the candle's wake tells us it was taken with force rather than drifted through. The two together are what separate a genuine reclaim from a slow grind that fails.
On that confirmation, the path opens toward the buy-side liquidity at $384.35 , and beyond it $408.43 . Each level cleared becomes the platform for the next — this is a sequence, and every stage depends on the one before it holding.
Scenario B — the invalidation.
The bullish case rests on this zone holding. If price loses the Buy zone and closes decisively beneath the 0.236 at $330.77 , the three mechanisms stacked there have failed rather than absorbed, and the correction becomes something deeper.
Structurally, the idea is only finished on a break of the Protected Low at $314.32 . That is the level that would end the higher timeframe trend, and price is not near it.
On execution.
The zone is where demand previously appeared. The 0.618 close is where the market proves it. Those are two different events, and treating them as one is how a good level turns into a bad entry.
And the rule that governs the whole idea: a break is a candle close, not a wick . A region this obvious is exactly where a spike through and an immediate reversal is most likely.
Fundamental Backdrop
The correction on this chart has a precise cause, and understanding it is what makes the structural case credible.
Alphabet reported Q2 on 22 July , and the quarter was genuinely strong. Revenue came in at $119.80bn, up 24% year-on-year , ahead of consensus near $117.02bn. Operating income rose 30% to $40.77bn at a 34% operating margin . The headline was Google Cloud, where revenue reached $24.8bn and accelerated to 82% growth on AI infrastructure demand, with nearly 90% of the Fortune 100 now using Gemini Enterprise. Management also disclosed that the Gemini app had reached 950 million monthly active users , processing roughly 22 billion API tokens per minute.
The stock fell anyway. The reason was spending: 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised to $195bn – $205bn , and the market repriced the cash flow implications immediately. Alphabet funded that programme aggressively, raising $49.6bn through a stock issuance in June and a further $20.3bn from senior unsecured notes during the quarter.
What matters for the technical read is what happened next. By early August the stock had recovered from that decline , which tells us the market worked through the capex concern rather than continuing to sell it. That recovery is the rally into $384.35 visible on this chart, and the pullback since is a retracement of it rather than a resumption of the earnings selloff.
The honest counterweight is that the spending question has not disappeared. A capex programme of that size funded partly by equity issuance and debt will keep pressure on free cash flow, and any quarter where Cloud growth decelerates while the bill keeps rising would be treated harshly. The bull case here depends on Cloud continuing to justify the investment, which makes the next earnings update the event that carries the most weight for the levels above.
This analysis will be updated as the market evolves.
Best Regards, BigBeluga XAUUSD: Bulls Hold 4,400, 4,500 Comes Into Focus XAUUSD: Bulls Hold 4,400, 4,500 Comes Into Focus
Market Context
Gold is trading around 4,399 as buyers continue to defend the short-term bullish structure. Price is now testing the 4,400 area again while the market waits for key US inflation data.
The US Dollar remains stuck in a narrow range as traders balance US-Iran uncertainty, elevated oil prices, and fading expectations for a September Fed rate hike. This mixed macro backdrop keeps gold supported, but also makes the next breakout highly dependent on confirmation.
The daily structure still points toward a possible test of the 200-day SMA near 4,500, with RSI supporting the bullish recovery. However, price is already close to short-term resistance, so execution matters.
Key point: gold remains bullish above 4,360 - 4,375, but buyers need to break 4,425 - 4,435 to unlock the next upside leg.
Technical Structure
Gold is moving inside a clean upward trend after a strong bullish expansion from the lower base. The chart shows higher highs, higher lows, BOS signals, and price still respecting the upper trendline structure.
The 4,400 level is now the psychological decision area. Staying above this level keeps bullish pressure active, but the real breakout zone is 4,425 - 4,435.
If buyers break through 4,425 - 4,435 with strength, gold may continue toward the next resistance at 4,450 - 4,470. Above that, the bigger market focus shifts toward 4,500.
The nearest support is 4,360 - 4,375. This is the Immediate Buy Reaction zone. If price pulls back and holds there, buyers may attempt another push higher.
Below that, 4,315 - 4,335 is the Main Reload Zone. Losing 4,360 would not fully break the trend, but it would increase the chance of a deeper pullback into this reload area.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,399
Nearest Peak / Breakout Zone: 4,425 - 4,435
Target Resistance: 4,450 - 4,470
Psychological Target: 4,500
Immediate Buy Reaction: 4,360 - 4,375
Main Reload Zone: 4,315 - 4,335
Structure Base Demand: 4,225 - 4,250
Bullish Continuation Trigger: Above 4,435
Correction Risk: Below 4,360
Trading Plan
Buy Pullback
Entry: 4,360 - 4,375
SL: Below 4,335
TP: 4,400 / 4,425 / 4,450
Condition: Price must pull back into the Immediate Buy Reaction zone and show clear bullish rejection. Buyers need to defend 4,360 to keep the short-term trend healthy.
Buy Breakout Continuation
Entry: Above 4,435 after breakout + retest
SL: Below 4,400
TP: 4,450 / 4,470 / 4,500
Condition: Price must break 4,425 - 4,435 with strength, retest successfully, and hold above the breakout zone. Avoid chasing the first candle into resistance without confirmation.
Deep Reload Buy
Entry: 4,315 - 4,335
SL: Below 4,250
TP: 4,360 / 4,400 / 4,435
Condition: If price loses 4,360 and corrects deeper, this becomes the cleaner re-entry zone. Look for strong bullish reaction before considering continuation.
Sell Reaction
Entry: 4,450 - 4,470
SL: Above 4,500
TP: 4,435 / 4,400 / 4,375
Condition: Price reaches target resistance and shows bearish rejection. This is only a reaction sell, not the main bias, unless gold later breaks below 4,360.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 4,360 after breakdown + retest
SL: Above 4,400
TP: 4,335 / 4,315 / 4,250
Condition: Price loses the Immediate Buy Reaction zone and fails to reclaim it. This would confirm a short-term correction toward the Main Reload Zone.
Overall Bias
Gold remains bullish while price holds above 4,360 - 4,375. The structure is still strong, but price is now close to the next breakout zone, so chasing the high is not ideal.
If buyers break 4,425 - 4,435, the next upside path opens toward 4,450 - 4,470 and possibly 4,500.
If 4,360 fails, gold may need a deeper reload toward 4,315 - 4,335 before the next bullish attempt.
Best approach: follow the trend, but wait for confirmation. Either buy a clean pullback into support or wait for a confirmed breakout above 4,435.
Will buyers break 4,435 and drive gold toward 4,500, or will CPI trigger one deeper pullback first?
Long 
XAUUSD H1: 4,370 Holds — Is 4,435 Next?Gold is trading around 4,392, and the H1 chart is approaching an important decision point.
The sharp rejection from 4,435 created a strong pullback, but sellers have not yet managed to break the underlying bullish structure. Price found support around 4,365–4,370 and has now recovered back into the 4,380–4,405 iFVG.
For me, this is less about predicting the next candle and more about watching how price reacts around these two boundaries.
4,370 is the defense.
4,405 is the trigger.
If buyers can maintain control above 4,370 and reclaim 4,405, I expect Gold to make another attempt at the 4,435 weak high.
The Setup
My preferred long area is:
Entry: 4,380–4,390
I don't want to chase Gold around 4,392 while price is sitting in the middle of the iFVG.
Instead, I want a pullback toward 4,380–4,390 and a clear bullish reaction.
Stop Loss: 4,360
This level is important because a decisive H1 move below it would tell me that the recent breakout area is no longer being defended.
For the upside:
TP1: 4,410
TP2: 4,435
TP3: 4,460
The first target is the nearby resistance.
The second target is the previous weak high.
If 4,435 is finally broken with strong H1 momentum, 4,460 becomes the next expansion target.
What Could Happen Next?
There are three important price reactions to watch.
1. Gold Pulls Back Into 4,380–4,390
This is the setup I prefer.
If price retraces into the zone, holds it, and buyers step back in, I would look for continuation toward 4,410 and then 4,435.
The key is that the pullback must remain controlled.
A healthy retracement followed by bullish rejection would keep the H1 structure intact.
2. Gold Breaks 4,405 Without Pulling Back
If an H1 candle closes firmly above 4,405, I would not immediately chase the breakout.
Instead, I would watch for a retest of 4,398–4,405.
If that area becomes support, the breakout setup becomes valid.
The targets remain:
4,435 → 4,460
This gives buyers a second opportunity even if the preferred 4,380–4,390 entry never appears.
3. Gold Loses 4,365
This is where my bullish idea is invalidated.
If H1 closes decisively below 4,365, I would cancel the long setup.
I would not immediately flip short simply because support failed.
The better decision would be to step aside and wait for a new market structure to develop.
Why 4,435 Matters
The 4,435 area is not just another target.
It is the previous weak high where sellers already appeared aggressively.
If Gold reaches this level again, I expect a reaction.
A rejection there could create another correction.
But if buyers break and hold above 4,435, the market would be showing that the previous supply has been absorbed.
That is where 4,460 becomes relevant.
My Current View
The H1 trend remains bullish as long as 4,365–4,370 continues to hold.
I am therefore looking for:
4,380–4,390 → bullish reaction → 4,405 reclaim → 4,410 → 4,435
And if the weak high finally breaks:
4,435 → 4,460
The opposite is equally clear:
H1 close below 4,365 = bullish setup cancelled.
No need to predict every move.
Let price reach the important levels and show which side is actually in control.
4,370 held once.
Now the question is whether buyers can take back 4,405.
Not financial advice. Always manage risk and position size appropriately.
Would you buy the 4,380–4,390 pullback, or wait for Gold to reclaim 4,405 first? Long 
Long
Gold at $4,355: Breakout or Pullback?
Gold remains structurally bullish on H1, but price is now trading directly beneath a major external high at 4,370.607.
That makes the current area interesting — but not necessarily attractive for chasing longs.
📊 H1 Structure
The bullish structure remains intact:
Higher highs + higher lows
Price holding above the rising support trendline
Previous bullish displacement remains valid
Price is approaching external buy-side liquidity
Current location = premium
The key level is 4,370.607.
A clean H1 close above this level would confirm that buyers are still in control and could trigger a liquidity expansion toward 4,400–4,410.
But there is another possibility.
⚠️ The Pullback Scenario
If Gold sweeps or rejects 4,370.607, the first area I would watch is:
Decision Zone: 4,300–4,310
This is the critical H1 reaction area.
If buyers defend it → bullish continuation remains the preferred scenario.
If price loses it → the market could rebalance toward:
Internal Support: 4,225–4,240
And if the correction becomes deeper:
Discount Zone: 4,185–4,200
This would actually create a much cleaner location for looking for bullish confirmation.
📰 Macro Catalyst
The latest US labor report showed -23K payroll growth in July, with unemployment at 4.1%. Wage growth was 3.2% YoY. The softer labor backdrop has helped keep the Gold bid alive.
But the next major test comes quickly:
CPI — Aug 12
PPI — Aug 13
Both releases can significantly change USD/yield expectations and therefore Gold volatility.
🎯 Trading Map
Bullish Scenario
H1 closes above 4,370.607
→ BSL taken
→ Momentum expansion
→ 4,400–4,410
Pullback Scenario
Rejection from 4,370.607
→ retracement into 4,300–4,310
→ bullish reaction
→ continuation toward 4,370 → 4,400
Bearish Shift
H1 loses 4,300–4,310
→ 4,225–4,240
→ deeper discount 4,185–4,200
What do you think — 4,370 breakout first, or 4,200 retracement first? Short 
Long
Long 
ETHUSDT: Next Sell Zone and Potential TargetsETHUSDT is trading around 1,886 USDT following a rebound from the 1,860 level, yet the price has not managed to reclaim the 1,885–1,905 USDT resistance zone.
Macro conditions currently favor a bearish or sideways scenario, as the crypto market maintains a cautious stance ahead of tonight's US CPI release, while the DXY has edged up to around 99.86. Reuters has also noted that Bitcoin and Ether remain relatively stable leading up to this critical inflation data.
On the 1-hour (H1) chart, ETH remains below the EMA89 (around 1,894). If the rebound continues to face rejection within the 1,890–1,905 range, I lean towards the likelihood of renewed selling pressure pushing the price back to the 1,855–1,865 USDT level. 
Short
Hellena | OIL (4H): LONG toward the unfilled gap area at 87.59.OIL continues to develop within a complex corrective structure. According to the current wave count, the larger wave "W" has already been completed, while the next part of the correction, wave "X", is now unfolding.
Within wave "X", the price is developing wave "B" of the higher degree. However, the intermediate bearish wave "C" is probably not complete yet.
For this reason, I allow for another decline toward the 72.21 support area before the main bullish move begins. This is where intermediate wave "C" may end and create a foundation for the next advance.
Nevertheless, the bullish scenario remains my priority. An unfilled gap is located around 87.59, and the price has not yet returned to close it completely. This provides an additional reason to expect another move toward this area.
My first bullish target is the 86.10-88.70 resistance area, with 87.59 as the main reference level. The unfilled gap coincides with a significant technical area from which the previous sharp decline began.
I am considering long positions only. An entry may be considered from current levels if a reliable bullish pattern appears, or after wave "C" completes around the 72.21 support area. The second option requires waiting for a clear price reaction within the support zone and using limit orders with strict risk control.
Uncertainty surrounding the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is currently supporting oil prices. At the same time, expectations of recovering supply flows and rising global inventories may limit the upside. The fundamental backdrop therefore remains volatile, although short-term supply risks currently favor higher prices.
Manage your capital properly and wisely! Enter trades only based on reliable patterns! 
Long
Pullback Before 4,460? | XAUUSD 12/08Gold is holding a strong H1 bullish structure after the expansion from the 4,230–4,245 Order Block. Price has reclaimed the 4,340–4,355 liquidity area and continues to form higher highs and higher lows.
With price currently around 4,396, I expect the main intraday path to be a pullback first, followed by another bullish expansion if the reaction is confirmed.
📊 Today's Market Outlook
My bias: Bullish
The path I am watching today:
4,396 → 4,360–4,375 → bullish reaction → 4,420 → 4,450–4,460
I do not want to chase the current price. The preferred opportunity is to wait for price to retrace into the 4,360–4,375 reaction zone.
🎯 Trading Plan
Potential Entry: 4,360–4,375
Confirmation: Lower-timeframe bullish MSS/CHoCH after the reaction
Stop Loss: 4,330
TP1: 4,420
TP2: 4,450
TP3: 4,460
Using the middle of the entry zone around 4,368:
TP1 ≈ 1:1.4 R
TP2 ≈ 1:2.2 R
TP3 ≈ 1:2.5 R
The idea is not to enter simply because price touches the zone. I want to see liquidity being taken and buyers regain short-term structure before considering the continuation setup.
🔎 Why 4,360–4,375?
This area sits below the current price and above the broader 4,340–4,355 liquidity zone.
If price pulls back into this area and holds, it would provide a cleaner location to look for bullish confirmation while keeping the invalidation clearly below the recent structure.
🎯 Upside Targets
4,420 is the first liquidity target.
If price accepts above this area, attention shifts toward 4,450–4,460, where the External BSL is located.
I would not automatically expect a reversal at 4,420 or 4,460. The reaction after the liquidity sweep is what matters.
⚠️ Invalidation & Bearish Scenario
The bullish setup is invalidated if price produces a sustained H1 close below 4,330.
In that case, the expected path changes:
4,330 breakdown → 4,300–4,320 → 4,230–4,245 H1 OB
A bearish MSS/CHoCH after the breakdown would provide additional confirmation for the downside scenario.
🧠 Key Insight
The structure is bullish, but the better location is below the current price.
For today, I am watching 4,360–4,375 as the main decision zone, 4,420 as the first liquidity target, and 4,450–4,460 as the major upside objective.
The key is simple:
Pullback → reaction → confirmation → continuation. Short 
Long
