Indicator
Strategy
Welles Wilder MA [MX]The average of 34 periods I observe as a mobile S/R, but I usually observe it more when it is in strong trend, and the average of 72 and 89 as trend dictators, if the asset is above them = Bullish , below = Bearish , and the 144 average as the last moving S/R, and also as an S/R even stronger than all other MAs and when the asset loses that average, I see it as final confirmation of the other previous averages.
I give more importance to the average of 89 periods than to 72, because I see it as an extension to the average of 72, as if it were a trend range.
for those who prefer to observe the crossing of short and long averages as a way to see the trend, I also left this option, although I do not use
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A média de 34 periodos eu observo como um S/R móvel, mas eu costumo observar ela mais quando está em forte tendência, estando bem bearish ou jeffish, e a média de 72 e 89 como ditadoras de tendência, se o ativo está acima delas = Bullish , abaixo = Bearish , e a média de 144 como o último S/R móvel, e também como um S/R ainda mais forte que todas as outras MA's e quando o ativo perde essa média, eu vejo como confirmação final das outras médias anteriores.
Eu dou mais importância a média de 89 períodos do que a de 72, porque eu vejo ela como uma extensão a média de 72, como se fosse um range de tendência.
para quem prefere observar o cruzamento das médias curtas com as longas como forma de ver a tendência, eu deixei também essa opção, embora eu não use Indicator
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Volatility System by Wilder [LucF]The Volatility System was created by J. Welles Wilder, Jr. It first appeared in his seminal masterpiece, "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems" (1978). He describes the system on pp.23-26, in the chapter discussing the first presentation ever of the "Volatility Index", built using a novel way of calculating a value representing volatility that he named Average True Range (ATR). The latter stuck.
The system is a pure reversal system (it is always either long or short). One of its characteristics is that its stop strategy moves up and down during a trade, widening the gap from price when volatility (ATR) increases. Because of this, this strategy can suffer large drawdowns and is not for the faint of heart.
The strategy uses a length (n) to calculate an ATR. ATR(n) is then multiplied by a factor to calculate the Average Range Constant (ARC). The ARC is then added to the lowest close n bars back to form the high Stop and Reverse points (SAR), and subtracted from the highest close n bars back to calculate the low SAR. Reversals occur when price closes above the high SAR or below the low SAR.
The system is best suited to higher time frames: 12H and above. Its performance depends heavily on calibration of the length and ARC factor. Wilder proposes a length of 7 and a factor between 2.8 to 3.1. My summary tests at 12H, 1D and 3D on stocks and cryptos yield better results with values of approximately 9-10/1.8-2.5 for cryptos and 9-10/3.0-4.0 for stocks. Small changes in the values will sometimes yield large variations in results, which I don’t particularly like because it tends to imply fragility, whereas I’d expect more robustness from a system with such simple rules. Additionally, backtests at 1D on cryptos provide so little data that no solid conclusions can be drawn from them.
All in all, the system is not very useful in my opinion; I publish it more for completeness, since as far as I can tell, it did not exist on this platform before. I also publish it out of respect for Wilder’s work. His book laid the foundation for many of the building blocks used by system designers, even today. In less than a hundred pages he presented RSI, ATR, DMI, ADXR and the Parabolic SAR indicators, some of which have become built-in functions in programming languages. This is a colossal feat and has not been repeated. Wilder is a monument.
Some lesser-known facts about his book:
It sells for the exact same price it cost in 1978: 65$,
The book has always been published by Wilder himself,
The layout hasn’t changed in 40 years,
He sells >35K copies/year.
Gotta love the guy.
The strategy is shown here on BTC /USD with settings of 12/1.8 (the defaults are 9/1.8). It shows the system under its best light. Other markets will most not reproduce such results. Also, the drawdown is as scary as the results are impressive.
Features
The code is written as a strategy but can easily be converted to an indicator if you want to use the alerts it can produce. Instructions are in the code.
You can change the length and ARC factor.
You can choose to trade only long or short positions.
You can choose to display the SARs (the stops) in multiple ways.
You can show trigger markers.
A date range can be defined.
3 alerts: reversals (both long and short), longs, shorts. Remember that for the moment, strategies cannot generate alerts in PulseWire, so the strategy must be converted to an indicator in order to make the alerts available.
Strategy
VACPWelles Wilder (delta phenomenon) a 4-day rotation indicator
PVAC is the acronym Alan uses for a four-day rotation cycle. The cycle itself is circularly continuous every days of the week, forever, including every holiday. Thus if, for instance, Monday was a P, Tuesday is V, Wednesday is A, Thursday is C. At this point the cycle repeats, with Friday being P, Saturday being V, Sunday being A, and the following Monday being C.
Having started, the cycle never changes. While each day tends to have the characteristics shown below, like all cycle tools, there are inversions, which will last a cycle or at times even more, and have reasonable odds of inverting regularly.
A trader who wants to incorporate a four-day rotation cycle into their work is encouraged to study for themselves whether this adds value.
Day: V-day Color: Red Characteristics: Closes well for bulls; Use your fleece bars Bar8 and Bar11; Bar8 open often a V-day return target; 'V' return comes early in day in bear moves, late in day in bullish moves
Day: A-day Color: Blue Characteristics: Closes poorly for bulls; Use your fleece bars 8 and 11; Generally 'A' shaped, but may have a kick-leg after 3pm
Day: C-day Color: Orange Characteristics: Consolidation day, aka 'consoly' day. It may not chop, but it may have an
accumulation or distribution quality to the action; Trade often and trade fast; Pattern traders fade 4HHs and 4LLs with backfill/pullbacks 3 bars later; Apexes and angulars tend to have less importance; Numerical traders trade after Bar8 open and use support one horizontal below, resistance one horizontal above; C-day opens often at the 25%; The afternoon action tends to be opposite to the morning action
Day: P-day Color: Green Characteristics: Often a trend day. Find the trend and enter it; Often opens at the 75%; Trade P-days against a quartile; Watch for price to be above/below the first apex: buy above or sell below ; Do not fade dead zone, minimal trading Indicator
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