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Wavetrend in Dynamic Zones with Kumo Implied VolatilityI was asked to do one of those, so here we go...
As always free and open source as it should be. Do not pay for such indicators!
A WaveTrend Indicator or also widely known as "Market Cipher" is an Indicator that is based on Moving Averages, therefore its an "lagging indicator". Lagging indicators are best used in combination with leading indicators. In this script the "leading indicator" component are Daily, Weekly or Monthly Pivots . These Pivots can be used as dynamic Support and Resistance , Stoploss, Take Profit etc.
This indicator combination is best used in larger timeframes. For lower timeframes you might need to change settings to your liking.
The general Wavetrend settings are the same that are used in Market Cipher, Market Liberator and such popular indicators.
What are these circles?
-These are the WaveTrend Divergences. Red for Regular-Bearish. Orange for Hidden-Bearish. Green for Regular-Bullish. Aqua for Hidden-Bullish.
What are these white, orange and aqua triangles?
-These are the WaveTrend Pivots. A Pivot counter was added. Every time a pivot is lower than the previous one, an orange triangle is printed, every time a pivot is higher than the previous one an aqua triangle is printed. That mimics a very common way Wavetrend is being used for trading when using those other paid Wavetrend indicators.
What are these Orange and Aqua Zones?
-These are Dynamic Zones based on the indicator itself, they offer more information than static zones. Of course static lines are also included and can be adjusted.
What are the lines between the waves?
-This is a Kumo Cloud Implied Volatility indicator. It is color coded and can be used to indicate if a major market move/bottom/top happened.
What are those numbers on the right?
-The first number is a Bollinger Band indicator that shows if said Bollinger Band is in a state of Oversold/Overbought, the second number is the actual Bollinger Band Width that indicates if the Bollinger Band squeezes, normally that happens right before the market makes an explosive move.
Please keep in mind that this indicator is a tool and not a strategy, do not blindly trade signals, do your own research first! Use this indicator in conjunction with other indicators to get multiple confirmations. Indicator
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ER-Adaptive ATR, STD-Adaptive Damiani Volatmeter [Loxx]ER-Adaptive ATR, STD-Adaptive Damiani Volatmeter is a Damiani Volatmeter with both Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR, used in place of ATR, and Adaptive Deviation, used in place of Standard Deviation.
What is Adaptive Deviation?
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma σ or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility .
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA , we can call it EMA deviation. And added to that, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
The green line is the Adaptive Deviation, the white line is regular Standard Deviation. This concept will be used in future indicators to further reduce noise and adapt to price volatility .
See here for a comparison between Adaptive Deviation and Standard Deviation
What is Efficiency Ratio Adaptive ATR?
Average True Range (ATR) is widely used indicator in many occasions for technical analysis . It is calculated as the RMA of true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range
See here for a comparison between Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR, and ATR.
What is the Damiani Volatmeter?
Damiani Volatmeter uses ATR and Standard deviation to tease out ticker volatility so you can better understand when it's the ideal time to trade. The idea here is that you only take trades when volatility is high so this indicator is to be coupled with various other indicators to validate the other indicator's signals. This is also useful for detecting crabbing and chopping markets.
Shoutout to user @xinolia for the DV function used here.
Anything red means that volatility is low. Remember volatility doesn't have a direction. Anything green means volatility high despite the direction of price. The core signal line here is the green and red line that dips below two while threshold lines to "recharge". Maximum recharge happen when the core signal line shows a yellow ping. Soon after one or many yellow pings you should expect a massive upthrust of volatility . The idea here is you don't trade unless volatility is rising or green. This means that the Volatmeter has to dip into the recharge zone, recharge and then spike upward. You can also attempt to buy or sell reversals with confluence indicators when volatility is in the recharge zone, but I wouldn't recommend this. However, if you so choose to do this, then use the following indicator for confluence.
And last reminder, volatility doesn't have a direction! Red doesn't mean short, and green doesn't mean long, Red means don't trade period regardless of direction long/short, and green means trade no matter the direction long/short. This means you'll have to add an indicator that does show direction such as a mean reversion indicator like Fisher Transform or a Gaussian Filter. You can search my public scripts for various Fisher Transform and Gaussian Filter indicators.
Price-Filtered Spearman Rank Correl. w/ Floating Levels is considered the Mercedes Benz of reversal indicators
Comparison between this indicator, ER-Adaptive ATR, STD-Adaptive Damiani Volatmeter , and the regular Damiani Volatmeter . Notice that the adaptive version catches more volatility than the regular version.
How signals work
RV = Rising Volatility
VD = Volatility Dump
Plots
White line is signal
Thick red/green line is the Volatmeter line
The dotted lower lines are the zero line and minimum recharging line
Included
Bar coloring
Alerts
Signals
Related indicators
Variety Moving Average Waddah Attar Explosion (WAE)
Damiani Volatmeter
Indicator
+ Dynamic Fibo-Donchian ChannelsThis is my second Donchian Channels indicator (and will probably be my last because how many does one really need). This version is different from my other one in that, well, it's 'dynamic' which simply means that it self adjusts based on the same formula that my Ultimate Moving Average does. What does that mean? It just means that the script takes an average of 8 different length, in this case, highest highs and lowest lows. The user doesn't need to pick a lookback/length/period/what-have-you. The indicator does it all itself. This, I think, makes for a very nice baseline or bias indicator to fit within a system that utilizes something like that. I also think it makes for a more accurate gauge of higher highs and lower lows within a timeframe, because honestly what does it mean to make a lower low over 20 periods or 8 periods or 50 periods? I don't know. What I do know is that traditional Donchian Channels never made much sense to me, but this does.
Additionally, I've kept (I guess that's not 'additionally') the fibonacci retracement levels from my other Donchian Channels indicator. These are calculated off the high and the low of the Donchian Channels themselves. You will see that there are only three retracement levels (.786, .705, .382), one of which is not a fib level, but what some people call the 'OTE,' or 'optimal trade entry.'' If you want more info on the OTE just web search it. So, why no .618 or .236? Reason being that the .618 overlaps the .382, and the .236 is extremely close to the .786. This sounds confusing, but the retracement levels I'm using are derived from the high and low, so it was unnecessary to have all five levels from each. I could have just calculated from the high, or just from the low, and used all the levels, but I chose to just calculate three levels from the high and three from the low because that gives a sort of mirror image balance, and that appeals to me, and the utility of the indicator is the same.
The plot lines are all colored, and I've filled certain zones between them. There is a center zone filled between both .382 levels, an upper and lower zon filled between the .786 and either the high or the low, and a zone between the .705 and .785
If you like the colored zones, but don't like the plots because they cause screen compression, turn off the plots under the "style" tab, or much more simply right click on the price scale and click 'scale price chart only.' Voila! No more screen compression due to a moving average or some other annoyance.
Besides that basis being a nice baseline indicator the various fib bands (or just the high and low bands) make for excellent mean reversion extremes in ranging environments.
There are alerts for candle closes across every line.
Below is an image of the indicator at default settings.
Below is an image of the indicator with the center .382 channel turned off.
Below is an image of the indicator with just the .786/.705 channel showing .
Indicator
Stock Tech Bot One ViewTechnical indicators are not limited. Hence, here is another indicator with the combination of OBV, RSI, and MACD along with support, and resistance that follows the price while honoring the moving average of 200, 90 & 50.
The default lookback period of this indicator is 21 though it is changeable as per the user's desire.
The highest high and lowest low for the last 21 days lookback period proven to be the perfect Support & Resistance as the price of particular stock values are decided by market psychology. The support and resistance lines are very important to understand the market psychology which is very well proven with price action patterns and the lines are drawn based on,
Lower Extreme = 0.1 (Changeable)
Maximum Range = 21 days highest high - 21 days lowest low.
Support Line = 21 days lowest low + (Maximum Range * Lower Extreme)
Resistance Line = 21 days highest high - (Maximum Range * Lower Extreme)
RSI - Relative strength indicator is very famous to find the market momentum within the range of 0 - 100. Though the lookback period is changeable, the 14 days lookback period is the perfect match as the momentum of market movement for the last 3 weeks will always assist to identify the market regime. Here the momentum is just to highlight the indication (green up arrow under the candle for long and red down arrow above the candle for short) of market movement though it is not very important to consider if the price of the stock respect the support & resistance lines along with volume indicator (* = violet color).
OBV - Momentum:
The on-balance volume is always going indicator on any kind of tickers, which helps to identify the buying interest. Now, applying momentum on OBV with the positive movement for at least two consecutive days gives perfect confirmation for entry. A combination of the price along with this momentum(OBV) in the chart will help us to know the whipsaw in the price.
The Symbol "*" on top of each bar shows the market interest in that particular stock. If your ticker is fundamentally strong then you can see this "*" even when the market falls.
MACD:
One of the favorites and simple indicators widely used, where the thump of the rule is not to change the length even if it is allowed. It's OK to believe blindly in certain indicator and consider it while trading. That's why the indicator changes the bar color by following the MACD histogram.
Volume:
It may be the OBV works based on the open price and close price along with volume movement, it is wise to have the volume that is plotted along with price movement that should help you to decide whether the market is greedy or fearful.
The symbol "-" on top of each bar tells you a lot and don't ignore it.
Moving Average:
Moving average is a very good trend indicator as everyone considers seeing along with the price in the chart which is not omitted while we gauge the price movement alone with volume in this indicator. The 200, 90 & 50 MA's are everyone's favorite, and the same is plotted on the chart.
As explained above, the combination of all four indicators with price movement will give us very good confidence to take entry.
Candlestick Pattern:
You should admire the techniques of the candlestick pattern as you navigate the chart from right to left. Though there are a lot of patterns that exist, it is easy to enable and disable to view the signal as the label.
Further, last but not least, the exit always depends on individual conviction and how often the individual watch the price movement, if your conviction is strong then follow the down arrow red indication. If not, then exit with a trailing stop that indicates the bar with orange color.
Happy investing
Note: It is just a combination of multiple indicators and patterns to get one holistic view. So, the credit goes to all wise developers who publically published. Indicator
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LS Volatility Index█ OVERVIEW
This indicator serves to measure the volatility of the price in relation to the average.
It serves four purposes:
1. Identify abnormal prices, extremely stretched in relation to an average;
2. Identify acceptable prices in the context of the main trend;
3. Identify market crashes;
4. Identify divergences.
█ CONCEPTS
The LS Volatility Index was originally described by Brazilian traders Alexandre Wolwacz (Stormer) , Fabrício Lorenz , and Fábio Figueiredo (Vlad)
Basically, this indicator can be used in two ways:
1. In a mean reversion strategy , when there is an unusual distance from it;
2. In a trend following strategy , when the price is in an acceptable region.
Perhaps the version presented here may have some slight differences, but the core is the same.
The original indicator is presented with a 21-period moving average, but here this value is customizable.
I made some fine tuning available, namely:
1. The possibility of smoothing the indicator;
2. Choose the type of moving average;
3. Customizable period;
4. Possibility to show a moving average of the indicator;
5. Color customization.
█ CALCULATION
First, the distance of the price from a given average in percentage terms is measured.
Then, the historical average volatility is obtained.
Finally the indicator is calculated through the ratio between the distance and the historical volatility.
To facilitate visualization, the result is normalized in a range from 0 to 100.
When it reaches 0, it means the price is on average.
When it hits 100, it means the price is way off average (stretched).
█ HOW TO USE IT
Here are some examples:
1. In a return-to-average strategy
2. In a trend following strategy
3. Identification of crashes and divergences
█ THANKS AND CREDITS
- Alexandre Wolwacz (Stormer), Fabrício Lorenz, Fábio Figueiredo (Vlad)
- Feature scaler (for normalization)
- HPotter (for calc of Historical Volatility) Indicator
3EMA + Boullinger + PIVOTTRES EMAS + BANDAS DE BOLLINGER + PIVOTE
INDICADOR 1: TRES EMAS (MEDIA MOVIL EXPONENCIAL)
Con este indicador puede visualizar el promedio de precios con mayor peso a los datos mas recientes.
Se calculan y dibujan tres medias móviles exponenciales: 8, 20 y 200 últimas velas.
-Rápida EMA1 = 8
-Media EMA2 = 20
-Lenta EMA 3 = 200
INDICADOR 2: BANDAS DE BOLLINGER
Con este indicador podrá ver la fuerza y la tendencia del mercado, es decir la mide la volatilidad del precio del activo.
Si el precio sobrepasa la banda superior, el activo está sobrecomprado.
Si el precio sobrepasa la banda inferior, el activo está sobrevendido.
Longitud tendencia - BASE = 20, paso = 1
Desviación Estándar - Multiplicador = 2, paso = 0.2
INDICADOR 3: PIVOTE
Este indicador etiqueta los puntos donde el precio es mínimo y máximo, en un rango de velas determinado en el parámetro "Distancia para el Pivote".
Estos 3 indicadores sirven para todo tipo de activos: FOREX, CRIPTO, CFD´s, ETC.
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THREE EMAS + BOLLINGER BANDS + PIVOT
INDICATOR 1: THREE EMAS ( EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE )
With this indicator you can visualize the average of prices with greater weight to the most recent data.
Three exponential moving averages are calculated and drawn: 4, 20 and 200 last candles.
-Fast EMA1 = 8
-Average EMA2 = 20
-Slow EMA 3 = 200
INDICATOR 2: BOLLINGER BANDS
With this indicator you can see the strength and trend of the market, that is, it is measured by the volatility of the asset price.
If the price goes above the upper band, the asset is overbought.
If the price goes above the lower band, the asset is oversold.
Trend length - BASE = 20, step = 1
Standard Deviation - Multiplier = 2, step = 0.2
INDICATOR 3: PIVOT
This indicator labels the points where the price is minimum and maximum, in a range of candles determined in the parameter "Distance to Pivot".
These 3 indicators are used for all types of assets: FOREX, CRYPT, CFD's, ETC.
Indicator
Volatility Risk Premium GOLD & SILVER 1.0ENGLISH
This indicator (V-R-P) calculates the (one month) Volatility Risk Premium for GOLD and SILVER.
V-R-P is the premium hedgers pay for over Realized Volatility for GOLD and SILVER options.
The premium stems from hedgers paying to insure their portfolios, and manifests itself in the differential between the price at which options are sold (Implied Volatility) and the volatility GOLD and SILVER ultimately realize (Realized Volatility).
I am using 30-day Implied Volatility (IV) and 21-day Realized Volatility (HV) as the basis for my calculation, as one month of IV is based on 30 calendaristic days and one month of HV is based on 21 trading days.
At first, the indicator appears blank and a label instructs you to choose which index you want the V-R-P to plot on the chart. Use the indicator settings (the sprocket) to choose one of the precious metals (or both).
Together with the V-R-P line, the indicator will show its one year moving average within a range of +/- 15% (which you can change) for benchmarking purposes. We should consider this range the “normalized” V-R-P for the actual period.
The Zero Line is also marked on the indicator.
Interpretation
When V-R-P is within the “normalized” range, … well... volatility and uncertainty, as it’s seen by the option market, is “normal”. We have a “premium” of volatility which should be considered normal.
When V-R-P is above the “normalized” range, the volatility premium is high. This means that investors are willing to pay more for options because they see an increasing uncertainty in markets.
When V-R-P is below the “normalized” range but positive (above the Zero line), the premium investors are willing to pay for risk is low, meaning they see decreasing uncertainty and risks in the market, but not by much.
When V-R-P is negative (below the Zero line), we have COMPLACENCY. This means investors see upcoming risk as being lower than what happened in the market in the recent past (within the last 30 days).
CONCEPTS :
Volatility Risk Premium
The volatility risk premium (V-R-P) is the notion that implied volatility (IV) tends to be higher than realized volatility (HV) as market participants tend to overestimate the likelihood of a significant market crash.
This overestimation may account for an increase in demand for options as protection against an equity portfolio. Basically, this heightened perception of risk may lead to a higher willingness to pay for these options to hedge a portfolio.
In other words, investors are willing to pay a premium for options to have protection against significant market crashes even if statistically the probability of these crashes is lesser or even negligible.
Therefore, the tendency of implied volatility is to be higher than realized volatility, thus V-R-P being positive.
Realized/Historical Volatility
Historical Volatility (HV) is the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an index over a given period of time.
Historical volatility is a well-known concept in finance, but there is confusion in how exactly it is calculated. Different sources may use slightly different historical volatility formulas.
For calculating Historical Volatility I am using the most common approach: annualized standard deviation of logarithmic returns, based on daily closing prices.
Implied Volatility
Implied Volatility (IV) is the market's forecast of a likely movement in the price of the index and it is expressed annualized, using percentages and standard deviations over a specified time horizon (usually 30 days).
IV is used to price options contracts where high implied volatility results in options with higher premiums and vice versa. Also, options supply and demand and time value are major determining factors for calculating Implied Volatility.
Implied Volatility usually increases in bearish markets and decreases when the market is bullish.
For determining GOLD and SILVER implied volatility I used their volatility indices: GVZ and VXSLV (30-day IV) provided by CBOE.
Warning
Please be aware that because CBOE doesn’t provide real-time data in Tradingview, my V-R-P calculation is also delayed, so you shouldn’t use it in the first 15 minutes after the opening.
This indicator is calibrated for a daily time frame.
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ESPAŇOL
Este indicador (V-R-P) calcula la Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (de un mes) para GOLD y SILVER.
V-R-P es la prima que pagan los hedgers sobre la Volatilidad Realizada para las opciones de GOLD y SILVER.
La prima proviene de los hedgers que pagan para asegurar sus carteras y se manifiesta en el diferencial entre el precio al que se venden las opciones (Volatilidad Implícita) y la volatilidad que finalmente se realiza en el ORO y la PLATA (Volatilidad Realizada).
Estoy utilizando la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) de 30 días y la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) de 21 días como base para mi cálculo, ya que un mes de IV se basa en 30 días calendario y un mes de HV se basa en 21 días de negociación.
Al principio, el indicador aparece en blanco y una etiqueta le indica que elija qué índice desea que el V-R-P represente en el gráfico. Use la configuración del indicador (la rueda dentada) para elegir uno de los metales preciosos (o ambos).
Junto con la línea V-R-P, el indicador mostrará su promedio móvil de un año dentro de un rango de +/- 15% (que puede cambiar) con fines de evaluación comparativa. Deberíamos considerar este rango como el V-R-P "normalizado" para el período real.
La línea Cero también está marcada en el indicador.
Interpretación
Cuando el V-R-P está dentro del rango "normalizado",... bueno... la volatilidad y la incertidumbre, como las ve el mercado de opciones, es "normal". Tenemos una “prima” de volatilidad que debería considerarse normal.
Cuando V-R-P está por encima del rango "normalizado", la prima de volatilidad es alta. Esto significa que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar más por las opciones porque ven una creciente incertidumbre en los mercados.
Cuando el V-R-P está por debajo del rango "normalizado" pero es positivo (por encima de la línea Cero), la prima que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar por el riesgo es baja, lo que significa que ven una disminución, pero no pronunciada, de la incertidumbre y los riesgos en el mercado.
Cuando V-R-P es negativo (por debajo de la línea Cero), tenemos COMPLACENCIA. Esto significa que los inversores ven el riesgo próximo como menor que lo que sucedió en el mercado en el pasado reciente (en los últimos 30 días).
CONCEPTOS :
Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad
La Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (V-R-P) es la noción de que la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) tiende a ser más alta que la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) ya que los participantes del mercado tienden a sobrestimar la probabilidad de una caída significativa del mercado.
Esta sobreestimación puede explicar un aumento en la demanda de opciones como protección contra una cartera de acciones. Básicamente, esta mayor percepción de riesgo puede conducir a una mayor disposición a pagar por estas opciones para cubrir una cartera.
En otras palabras, los inversores están dispuestos a pagar una prima por las opciones para tener protección contra caídas significativas del mercado, incluso si estadísticamente la probabilidad de estas caídas es menor o insignificante.
Por lo tanto, la tendencia de la Volatilidad Implícita es de ser mayor que la Volatilidad Realizada, por lo cual el V-R-P es positivo.
Volatilidad Realizada/Histórica
La Volatilidad Histórica (HV) es la medida estadística de la dispersión de los rendimientos de un índice durante un período de tiempo determinado.
La Volatilidad Histórica es un concepto bien conocido en finanzas, pero existe confusión sobre cómo se calcula exactamente. Varias fuentes pueden usar fórmulas de Volatilidad Histórica ligeramente diferentes.
Para calcular la Volatilidad Histórica, utilicé el enfoque más común: desviación estándar anualizada de rendimientos logarítmicos, basada en los precios de cierre diarios.
Volatilidad Implícita
La Volatilidad Implícita (IV) es la previsión del mercado de un posible movimiento en el precio del índice y se expresa anualizada, utilizando porcentajes y desviaciones estándar en un horizonte de tiempo específico (generalmente 30 días).
IV se utiliza para cotizar contratos de opciones donde la alta Volatilidad Implícita da como resultado opciones con primas más altas y viceversa. Además, la oferta y la demanda de opciones y el valor temporal son factores determinantes importantes para calcular la Volatilidad Implícita.
La Volatilidad Implícita generalmente aumenta en los mercados bajistas y disminuye cuando el mercado es alcista.
Para determinar la Volatilidad Implícita de GOLD y SILVER utilicé sus índices de volatilidad: GVZ y VXSLV (30 días IV) proporcionados por CBOE.
Precaución
Tenga en cuenta que debido a que CBOE no proporciona datos en tiempo real en Tradingview, mi cálculo de V-R-P también se retrasa, y por este motivo no se recomienda usar en los primeros 15 minutos desde la apertura.
Este indicador está calibrado para un marco de tiempo diario.
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Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) 1.0ENGLISH
This indicator (V-R-P) calculates the (one month) Volatility Risk Premium for S&P500 and Nasdaq-100.
V-R-P is the premium hedgers pay for over Realized Volatility for S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 index options.
The premium stems from hedgers paying to insure their portfolios, and manifests itself in the differential between the price at which options are sold (Implied Volatility) and the volatility the S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 ultimately realize (Realized Volatility).
I am using 30-day Implied Volatility (IV) and 21-day Realized Volatility (HV) as the basis for my calculation, as one month of IV is based on 30 calendaristic days and one month of HV is based on 21 trading days.
At first, the indicator appears blank and a label instructs you to choose which index you want the V-R-P to plot on the chart. Use the indicator settings (the sprocket) to choose one of the indices (or both).
Together with the V-R-P line, the indicator will show its one year moving average within a range of +/- 15% (which you can change) for benchmarking purposes. We should consider this range the “normalized” V-R-P for the actual period.
The Zero Line is also marked on the indicator.
Interpretation
When V-R-P is within the “normalized” range, … well... volatility and uncertainty, as it’s seen by the option market, is “normal”. We have a “premium” of volatility which should be considered normal.
When V-R-P is above the “normalized” range, the volatility premium is high. This means that investors are willing to pay more for options because they see an increasing uncertainty in markets.
When V-R-P is below the “normalized” range but positive (above the Zero line), the premium investors are willing to pay for risk is low, meaning they see decreasing uncertainty and risks in the market, but not by much.
When V-R-P is negative (below the Zero line), we have COMPLACENCY. This means investors see upcoming risk as being lower than what happened in the market in the recent past (within the last 30 days).
CONCEPTS:
Volatility Risk Premium
The volatility risk premium (V-R-P) is the notion that implied volatility (IV) tends to be higher than realized volatility (HV) as market participants tend to overestimate the likelihood of a significant market crash.
This overestimation may account for an increase in demand for options as protection against an equity portfolio. Basically, this heightened perception of risk may lead to a higher willingness to pay for these options to hedge a portfolio.
In other words, investors are willing to pay a premium for options to have protection against significant market crashes even if statistically the probability of these crashes is lesser or even negligible.
Therefore, the tendency of implied volatility is to be higher than realized volatility, thus V-R-P being positive.
Realized/Historical Volatility
Historical Volatility (HV) is the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an index over a given period of time.
Historical volatility is a well-known concept in finance, but there is confusion in how exactly it is calculated. Different sources may use slightly different historical volatility formulas.
For calculating Historical Volatility I am using the most common approach: annualized standard deviation of logarithmic returns, based on daily closing prices.
Implied Volatility
Implied Volatility (IV) is the market's forecast of a likely movement in the price of the index and it is expressed annualized, using percentages and standard deviations over a specified time horizon (usually 30 days).
IV is used to price options contracts where high implied volatility results in options with higher premiums and vice versa. Also, options supply and demand and time value are major determining factors for calculating Implied Volatility.
Implied Volatility usually increases in bearish markets and decreases when the market is bullish.
For determining S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 implied volatility I used their volatility indices: VIX and VXN (30-day IV) provided by CBOE.
Warning
Please be aware that because CBOE doesn’t provide real-time data in Tradingview, my V-R-P calculation is also delayed, so you shouldn’t use it in the first 15 minutes after the opening.
This indicator is calibrated for a daily time frame.
ESPAŇOL
Este indicador (V-R-P) calcula la Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (de un mes) para S&P500 y Nasdaq-100.
V-R-P es la prima que pagan los hedgers sobre la Volatilidad Realizada para las opciones de los índices S&P500 y Nasdaq-100.
La prima proviene de los hedgers que pagan para asegurar sus carteras y se manifiesta en el diferencial entre el precio al que se venden las opciones (Volatilidad Implícita) y la volatilidad que finalmente se realiza en el S&P500 y el Nasdaq-100 (Volatilidad Realizada).
Estoy utilizando la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) de 30 días y la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) de 21 días como base para mi cálculo, ya que un mes de IV se basa en 30 días calendario y un mes de HV se basa en 21 días de negociación.
Al principio, el indicador aparece en blanco y una etiqueta le indica que elija qué índice desea que el V-R-P represente en el gráfico. Use la configuración del indicador (la rueda dentada) para elegir uno de los índices (o ambos).
Junto con la línea V-R-P, el indicador mostrará su promedio móvil de un año dentro de un rango de +/- 15% (que puede cambiar) con fines de evaluación comparativa. Deberíamos considerar este rango como el V-R-P "normalizado" para el período real.
La línea Cero también está marcada en el indicador.
Interpretación
Cuando el V-R-P está dentro del rango "normalizado",... bueno... la volatilidad y la incertidumbre, como las ve el mercado de opciones, es "normal". Tenemos una “prima” de volatilidad que debería considerarse normal.
Cuando V-R-P está por encima del rango "normalizado", la prima de volatilidad es alta. Esto significa que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar más por las opciones porque ven una creciente incertidumbre en los mercados.
Cuando el V-R-P está por debajo del rango "normalizado" pero es positivo (por encima de la línea Cero), la prima que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar por el riesgo es baja, lo que significa que ven una disminución, pero no pronunciada, de la incertidumbre y los riesgos en el mercado.
Cuando V-R-P es negativo (por debajo de la línea Cero), tenemos COMPLACENCIA. Esto significa que los inversores ven el riesgo próximo como menor que lo que sucedió en el mercado en el pasado reciente (en los últimos 30 días).
CONCEPTOS:
Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad
La Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (V-R-P) es la noción de que la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) tiende a ser más alta que la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) ya que los participantes del mercado tienden a sobrestimar la probabilidad de una caída significativa del mercado.
Esta sobreestimación puede explicar un aumento en la demanda de opciones como protección contra una cartera de acciones. Básicamente, esta mayor percepción de riesgo puede conducir a una mayor disposición a pagar por estas opciones para cubrir una cartera.
En otras palabras, los inversores están dispuestos a pagar una prima por las opciones para tener protección contra caídas significativas del mercado, incluso si estadísticamente la probabilidad de estas caídas es menor o insignificante.
Por lo tanto, la tendencia de la Volatilidad Implícita es de ser mayor que la Volatilidad Realizada, por lo cual el V-R-P es positivo.
Volatilidad Realizada/Histórica
La Volatilidad Histórica (HV) es la medida estadística de la dispersión de los rendimientos de un índice durante un período de tiempo determinado.
La Volatilidad Histórica es un concepto bien conocido en finanzas, pero existe confusión sobre cómo se calcula exactamente. Varias fuentes pueden usar fórmulas de Volatilidad Histórica ligeramente diferentes.
Para calcular la Volatilidad Histórica, utilicé el enfoque más común: desviación estándar anualizada de rendimientos logarítmicos, basada en los precios de cierre diarios.
Volatilidad Implícita
La Volatilidad Implícita (IV) es la previsión del mercado de un posible movimiento en el precio del índice y se expresa anualizada, utilizando porcentajes y desviaciones estándar en un horizonte de tiempo específico (generalmente 30 días).
IV se utiliza para cotizar contratos de opciones donde la alta Volatilidad Implícita da como resultado opciones con primas más altas y viceversa. Además, la oferta y la demanda de opciones y el valor temporal son factores determinantes importantes para calcular la Volatilidad Implícita.
La Volatilidad Implícita generalmente aumenta en los mercados bajistas y disminuye cuando el mercado es alcista.
Para determinar la Volatilidad Implícita de S&P500 y Nasdaq-100 utilicé sus índices de volatilidad: VIX y VXN (30 días IV) proporcionados por CBOE.
Precaución
Tenga en cuenta que debido a que CBOE no proporciona datos en tiempo real en Tradingview, mi cálculo de V-R-P también se retrasa, y por este motivo no se recomienda usar en los primeros 15 minutos desde la apertura.
Este indicador está calibrado para un marco de tiempo diario.
Indicator
+ Magic Carpet BandsFun name for an indicator, eh? Well, it is true, I think; they look like magic carpets. They're actually pretty simple actually. They're Keltner Channels smoothed with a moving average. If you go down to the lookback period for the bands and set it to 1, you'll recognize them immediately.
Digging a bit deeper you see there are four magic carpets on the chart. The inner ones are set to a multiplier of 2, and the outer to a multiplier of 4. Each "carpet" is composed of two smoothed upper or lower Keltner Channels bounds, both with an optional offset, one of which is set to 13, and the other to 0 by default; and an optional color fill between these. There is also a color fill between the outer and inner carpets which gives them an interesting 3-dimensional aspect at times. They can look a bit like tunnels by default.
My thinking around the idea of using an offset with the bands is that if we assume these things to provide a dynamic support and resistance, and previous support and resistance maintains status as support and resistance until proven otherwise, then by putting an offset to past data we are creating a more obvious visual indication of that support or resistance in the present. The default offset is set to 13 bars back, so if price found resistance at some point around 13 bars ago, and price is currently revisiting it we assume it is still resistance, and that offset band is there to give us a strong visual aid. Obviously it's not foolproof, but nothing is.
Beyond that most interesting part of the indicator you have a nice selection of moving averages which the bands are calculated off of. By default it's set to my UMA. The bands themselves also have a selection of moving averages for how the keltner channels are smoothed. And a note: because the UMA and RDMA are averages of different length MAs, they can not be adjusted other than via the multiplier that sets the distance from the moving average.
The indicator is multi-timeframe, and the moving average can be colored based on a higher timeframe as well.
I popped in the divergence indicator here too. You can choose from RSI and OBV, and the divergences will be plotted on the chart. Working on finding a way to be able to have the bands/MA set to a higher timeframe while plotting the divergences on the chart timeframe, but don't have an answer to that yet.
Alerts for moving average crosses, band touches, and divergences.
I like this one a lot. Enjoy!
Pictures below.
s3.pulsewire.com
One interesting thing about this indicator is that band twists often occur at areas of support or resistance. Simply drawing horizontal lines from previous twisted points can provide places from which you may look for strength or weakness to enter into a trade, or which you might use as targets for taking profits. The vertical lines are just showing the point on the chart when the cross occurred.
s3.pulsewire.com
Above is a Jurik MA with a bunch of adjustments made to the bands, and the moving average itself. Everything is super adjustable, so you can play around and have fun with them quite a bit.
s3.pulsewire.com
Just a different MA and bands.
s3.pulsewire.com
Indicator
TSI in Dynamic Zones with Divergence and Pivot PointsTrue Strength Index , or TSI is considered a "leading indicator" - in contrast to a "lagging indicator" just as Moving Averages it does not show a confirmation what already happened, but it shows what can happen in the future. For example: The chart is climbing while the TSI oscillator is slowly declining, gets weaker and weaker, maybe even prints bearish divergences? That means that a reversal might be occurring soon. Leading indicators are best paired with Stop and Resistance Lines, General Trendlines , Fib Retracements etc. Your chart is approaching a very important Resistance Trendline but the TSI shows a very positive signal? That means there is a high probability that the Resistance is going to be pushed through and becomes Support in the future.
What are those circles?
-These are Divergences. Red for Regular-Bearish. Orange for Hidden-Bearish. Green for Regular-Bullish. Aqua for Hidden-Bullish.
What are those triangles?
- These are Pivots . They show when the TSI oscillator might reverse, this is important to know because many times the price action follows this move.
What are these blue or orange areas?
- Those are dynamic zones. For the analysis of the TSI its important to know if the indicator is in a state of oversold or overbought to filter out ranging price movement. Normally those zones are static, in this version of the TSI oscillator dynamic zones were added to show a dynamic calculation whether the TSI oscillator is oversold, overbought or ranging.
Please keep in mind that this indicator is a tool and not a strategy, do not blindly trade signals, do your own research first! Use this indicator in conjunction with other indicators to get multiple confirmations. Indicator
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