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Tilson T3 and MavilimW Triple Combined StrategyInspired by truly greatful Kivanç Ozbilgic (www.pulsewire.com).
The strategy tries to combined three different moving average strategies into one.
Strategies covered are:
1. Tillson T3 Moving Average Strategy
Developed by Tim Tillson, the T3 Moving Average is considered superior to traditional moving averages as it is smoother, more responsive and thus performs better in ranging market conditions as well. However, it bears the disadvantage of overshooting the price as it attempts to realign itself to current market conditions.
It incorporates a smoothing technique which allows it to plot curves more gradual than ordinary moving averages and with a smaller lag. Its smoothness is derived from the fact that it is a weighted sum of a single EMA, double EMA, triple EMA and so on. When a trend is formed, the price action will stay above or below the trend during most of its progression and will hardly be touched by any swings. Thus, a confirmed penetration of the T3 MA and the lack of a following reversal often indicates the end of a trend. Here is what the calculation looks like:
T3 = c1*e6 + c2*e5 + c3*e4 + c4*e3, where:
– e1 = EMA (Close, Period)
– e2 = EMA (e1, Period)
– e3 = EMA (e2, Period)
– e4 = EMA (e3, Period)
– e5 = EMA (e4, Period)
– e6 = EMA (e5, Period)
– a is the volume factor, default value is 0.7 but 0.618 can also be used
– c1 = – a^3
– c2 = 3*a^2 + 3*a^3
– c3 = – 6*a^2 – 3*a – 3*a^3
– c4 = 1 + 3*a + a^3 + 3*a^2
T3 MovingThe T3 Moving Average generally produces entry signals similar to other moving averages and thus is traded largely in the same manner.
Strategy for Tillson T3 is if the close crossovers T3 line and for at least five bars the close was under the T3
2. Tillson T3 Fibonacci Cross
Kivanc Ozbilgic added a second T3 line with a volume factor of 0.618 (Fibonacci Ratio) and length of 3 (fibonacci number) which can be added by selecting the T3 Fibonacci Strategy input box.
Strategy for Tillson T3 Fibo is when the Fibo Line crossover the T3 it gives long signal vice versa.
3. MavilimW
MavilimW is originally a support and resistance indicator based on fibonacci injected weighted moving averages.
Strategy for MavilimW is is if the close crossovers T3 line and for at least five bars the close was under the T3
Hope you enjoy
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Stop-Loss order according to Average PenetrationAs a engineer, the view of signal and noise in the book of "Trading for a living"really interests me. For a trader the biggest issue is when should we enter and exit the market. The view of safety range stop loss may help to solve this problem for some beginner and give you a new idea of stoploss for you trade system
Here is the content from Trading for a Living
you may use the slope of a 22-day EMA to define the trend. You need to choose the length of the lookback period for measuring noise level. it has to be long enough to track recent behavior but short enough to be relevant for current trading. A period of 10 to 20 days works well, or we can make our lookback period 100 days or so if we want to average long-term market
if the trend is up, mark all downside penetrations during the look-back period, add their depths, and divide the sum by the number of penetrations。 This gives you the Average Downside Penetration for the selected look back
if today's low is lower than yesterday's, do not move your stop lower since we are only allowed to raise stops on long positions, not lower them
Reverse these rules in downtrends. When a 22-day EMA identifies a downtrend, count all the upside penetrations during the look-back period and find the Average Upside Penetration. Multiply it by a coefficient, starting with two. When you go short, place a stop twice he Average Upside Penetration above the previous day's high. Lower your stop whenever the market makes a lower high, but never raise it.
The important thing when you make an order is to hold your earning during a trending scenario. To avoid stopping loss by the variance in the market and to avoid big loss if the market shift to another direction in a short time.
From the graph there, I select the most recent trend up period in the Bitcoin and adjust the parameters according to this trend.
As you can see, the stop loss is away from the lowest price in bar, so that you will not be forced to exit the trade by small turbulence. You can hold your order and need to worry about missing the trend. But there are always sharp plunges in the uptrend. you can see two cursors on the graphic. The stop loss will help you avoid this plunge.
But in my opinion, this will be the hard stop loss in your trade. Help you to keep profit and avoid big loss. To maximize the profit, you had better to build you own strategy.
When I try to create this indicator, it is found that two rule for this indicator
1. you had better to use it in a clear trend range. Since the stop loss can only be higher in a long condition and lower in a short condition. If you use it in a volatile market., then stop loss doesn’t make any senses.
2. you need to adjust those parameters according to the market and the trend you are in. Some people like to avoid big loss, you can set them this depending on you experience
Last, this is getting from the view in the book, i didn’t do any back test for it. So please be careful to use it and let me know if you have any suggestions or ideas. Indicator
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Two Take Profits and Two Stop LossThis script is for research purposes only. I am not a financial advisor.
Entry Condition
This strategy is based on two take profit targets, two stop loss, and scaling out strategy. The entry rule is very simple. Whenever the EMA crossover WMA, the long trade is taken and vice versa.
Take Profit and Stop Loss
The first take profit is set at 20 pips above the long entry and the second take profit is set at 40 pips above the long entry. Meanwhile, the first stop loss is set at 20 pips below the long entry and the second stop loss is set at the long entry.
Money Management
When the first take profit is achieved, half of the position is closed and the first stop loss is moved to the entry-level. The rest of the position is open to achieve either second take profit or second stop loss.
There are three outcomes when using this strategy. Let's say you enter the trade with 200 lot size and you are risking 2% of your equity.
1. The first outcome is when the price hits stop loss, you lose the entire 2%.
2. The second outcome is when the price hits the first take profit and you close half of your position. Meaning that you have gained 1%. Then you let the trade running and eventually it hits the second stop loss. Remember your first stop loss has changed to the second stop loss when the first take profit is achieved. The total loss is 0% because the price is at your entry-level. You have gained the earlier 1% and then lost 0%. At this point, you are at 1% gained.
3. The third outcome is similar to the second out but instead of hitting the second stop loss, the trade is running to your favor and hits the second take profit.
Therefore, you gained 1% from the first take profit and you gained another 2% for the second take profit. Your total gained is 3%
Summary
The reason behind this strategy is to minimize risk. with normal strategy, you only have two outcomes which are either win or loss. With this strategy, you have three outcomes which win 3%, win 1%, or loss 2%.
This is my similar strategy but with single stop loss
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Two Take Profit StrategyThis script is for research purposes only. I am not a financial advisor.
Entry Condition
This strategy is based on two take profit targets and scaling out strategy. The entry rule is very simple. Whenever the EMA crossover WMA, the long trade is taken and vice versa.
Take Profit and Stop Loss
The first take profit is set at 20 pips above the long entry and the second take profit is set at 40 pips above the long entry. Meanwhile, the stop loss is set at 20 pips below the long entry.
Money Management
When the first take profit is achieved, half of the position is closed. The rest of the position is open to achieve either second take profit or stop loss.
There are three outcomes when using this strategy. Let's say you enter the trade with 200 lot size and you are risking 2% of your equity.
1. The first outcome is when the price hits stop loss, you lose the entire 2%.
2. The second outcome is when the price hits the first take profit and you close half of your position. Meaning that you have gained 1%. Then you let the trade running and eventually it hits stop loss. The total loss is 0% because the remaining lot size which is 200/2=100 times by 20pips is 1%. You have gained the earlier 1% and then loss 1%. At this point, you are at break even.
3. The third outcome is similar to the second out but instead of hiring stop loss, the trade is running to your favor and hits the second take profit.
Therefore, you gained 1% from the first take profit and you gained another 2% for the second take profit. Your total gained is 3%
Summary
The reason behind this strategy is to minimize risk. with normal strategy, you only have two outcomes which are either win or loss. With this strategy, you have three outcomes which are win, loss or break even. Strategy
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High/Low stopFirst of all let me quote some important points :
• You need stops; a trade without a stop is a gamble.
• You need to know where you’ll put your stop before you enter
a trade.
• Everybody needs hard stops.
• Whenever you change a stop, you may move it only in the direc-
tion of the trade.
There is a variety of techniques available to traders who like to use
trailing stops:
• You can use a multibar low as a trailing stop; for example, you
can keep moving your stop to the lowest low of the last three
bars (but never against your trade).
• You can trail prices with a very short moving average and use its
level for a trailing stop.
• You can use a Chandelier stop—every time the market makes a
new high, move the stop within a certain distance from the top—
either a specific price range or a number based on an ATR (aver-
age true range). Any time your stock makes a new high, you place
your stop within that distance from the top, like hanging a chan-
delier (this method is described in Come into My Trading Room).
• You can use a Parabolic stop .
• You can use a SafeZone stop .
• You can use a Volatility-Drop stop (described below, for the first
time in trading literature).
• You can use a Time Stop to get out of your trade if it does not
move within a certain time. For example, if you enter a day-trade
and the stock does not move within 10 or 15 minutes, it is clearly
not doing what you expected and it is best to scratch that trade.
If you put on a swing trade which you expect to last several
days, but then a week goes by and the stock is still flat, it is
clearly not confirming your analysis and the safest action would
be to get out.
This is a summary taken from Dr Elder book and this indicator i coded from one of his book where he briefly mention this trailing stop technique but don't dive a lot into it, but still i found to be very effective.
You can use even the short stop (the green dots) as an entry point. Indicator
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Moving Average profit targets with var sizeProfit target:
Profit targets are those scenarios where the system expects to be greater than the actual return at the end of the transaction: they may be short-term benefits, such as a favorable price shock model.
In short-term transactions, profit objectives are essential. Price fluctuations make any favorable event likely to turn around in an instant. Moreover, profit objectives are more difficult to integrate into the longer-term trading system, because they are afraid of losing larger profits at risk, so they will replace them with smaller but more frequent gains. As a follower of the trend, once you make a profit and stop earning, but the trend direction is still intact, you need to find a way to re-enter the transaction to avoid losing the rare but very large market situation.
Profit target is best calculated based on price volatility (V), and the most commonly used method:
For Long, the system buy point (E), needs to be multiplied by the average true volatility or annualized volatility :E+f×V.
The net value multiplier f used to calculate the profit level is usually obtained through data mining.
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