Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Bar StatisticsThis script calculates and displays some bar statistics.
For the bar length statistics, it takes every length of upper or lower movements and calculates their average (with SD), median, and max. That way, you can see whether there is a bias in the market or not.
Eg.: If for 10 bars, the market moved 2 up, then 1 down, then 3 up, then 2 down, and 2 up, the average up bars length would be at 2.33, while the average for the down length would be at 1.5, showing that upper movements last longer than down movements.
For the range statistics, it takes the true range of each bar and calculates where the close of the bar is in relation to the true low of it. So if the closing of the bar is at 10.0, the low is at 9.0, and the high is at 10.2, the candle closed in the upper third of the bar. This process is calculated for every bar and for both closing prices and open prices. It is very useful to locate biasses, and they can you a better view of the market, since for most of the time a bar will open on an extreme and close on another extreme.
Eg.: Here on the DJI, we can see that for most of the time, a month opens at the lower third (near the low) and closes at the upper third (near the high). We can also see that it is very difficult for a month to open or close on the middle of the candle, showing how important the first and the last day are for determining the trend of the rest of the month. Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Strategy
Indicator
Indicator
pricing_tableThis script helps you evaluate the fair value of an option. It poses the question "if I bought or sold an option under these circumstances in the past, would it have expired in the money, or worthless? What would be its expected value, at expiration, if I opened a position at N standard deviations, given the volatility forecast, with M days to expiration at the close of every previous trading day?"
The default (and only) "hv" volatility forecast is based on the assumption that today's volatility will hold for the next M days.
To use this script, only one step is mandatory. You must first select days to expiration. The script will not do anything until this value is changed from the default (-1). These should be CALENDAR days. The script will convert to these to business days for forecasting and valuation, as trading in most contracts occurs over ~250 business days per year.
Adjust any other variables as desired:
model: the volatility forecasting model
window: the number of periods for a lagged model (e.g. hv)
filter: a filter to remove forecasts from the sample
filter type: "none" (do not use the filter), "less than" (keep forecasts when filter < volatility), "greater than" (keep forecasts when filter > volatility)
filter value: a whole number percentage. see example below
discount rate: to discount the expected value to present value
precision: number of decimals in output
trim outliers: omit upper N % of (generally itm) contracts
The theoretical values are based on history. For example, suppose days to expiration is 30. On every bar, the 30 days ago N deviation forecast value is compared to the present price. If the price is above the forecast value, the contract has expired in the money; otherwise, it has expired worthless. The theoretical value is the average of every such sample. The itm probabilities are calculated the same way.
The default (and only) volatility model is a 20 period EWMA derived historical (realized) volatility. Feel free to extend the script by adding your own.
The filter parameters can be used to remove some forecasts from the sample.
Example A:
filter:
filter type: none
filter value:
Default: the filter is not used; all forecasts are included in the the sample.
Example B:
filter: model
filter type: less than
filter value: 50
If the model is "hv", this will remove all forecasts when the historical volatility is greater than fifty.
Example C:
filter: rank
filter type: greater than
filter value: 75
If the model volatility is in the top 25% of the previous year's range, the forecast will be included in the sample apart from "model" there are some common volatility indexes to choose from, such as Nasdaq (VXN), crude oil (OVX), emerging markets (VXFXI), S&P; (VIX) etc.
Refer to the middle-right table to see the current forecast value, its rank among the last 252 days, and the number of business days until
expiration.
NOTE: This script is meant for the daily chart only. Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Probability Distribution HistogramProbability Distribution Histogram
During data exploration it is often useful to plot the distribution of the data one is exploring. This indicator plots the distribution of data between different bins.
Essentially, what we do is we look at the min and max of the entire data set to determine its range. When we have the range of the data, we decide how many bins we want to divide this range into, so that the more bins we get, the smaller the range (a.k.a. width) for each bin becomes. We then place each data point in its corresponding bin, to see how many of the data points end up in each bin. For instance, if we have a data set where the smallest number is 5 and the biggest number is 105, we get a range of 100. If we then decide on 20 bins, each bin will have a width of 5. So the left-most bin would therefore correspond to values between 5 and 10, and the bin to the right would correspond to values between 10 and 15, and so on.
Once we have distributed all the data points into their corresponding bins, we compare the count in each bin to the total number of data points, to get a percentage of the total for each bin. So if we have 100 data points, and the left-most bin has 2 data points in it, that would equal 2%. This is also known as probability mass (or well, an approximation of it at least, since we're dealing with a bin, and not an exact number).
Usage
This is not an indicator that will give you any trading signals. This indicator is made to help you examine data. It can take any input you give it and plot how that data is distributed.
The indicator can transform the data in a few ways to help you get the most out of your data exploration. For instance, it is usually more accurate to use logarithmic data than raw data, so there is an option to transform the data using the natural logarithmic function. There is also an option to transform the data into %-Change form or by using data differencing.
Another option that the indicator has is the ability to trim data from the data set before plotting the distribution. This can help if you know there are outliers that are made up of corrupted data or data that is not relevant to your research.
I also included the option to plot the normal distribution as well, for comparison. This can be useful when the data is made up of residuals from a prediction model, to see if the residuals seem to be normally distributed or not.
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Risk Position Sizing tool using Coefficient of VariationA way to manage portfolio risk using relative standard deviation, also known as coefficient of variation. This tool tells you how much of each stock in shares and in value to buy adjusted for their volatility risk for a given starting account capital. A problem many people have is how to diversify an account and adjusting it for the risk involved in each equity. Many would put in an equal amount of capital value into each share but is it really equal if some equities have more risk than others? A solution is to adjust the portfolio by giving less weight to those that are more volatile or risky. It's done by using a starting percent of the account, preferably a small percent of it, and buying up shares with that same amount for each equity. Each equity will also be divided by the COV to risk adjust the portfolio by giving less weight to the more volatile stocks. This is done until as much of the initial capital in the account as possible is spent.
COV is how far away the price is from the mean or average. The further the price is from the mean the more risk or volatility there is. It uses standard deviation in its calculation. The problem with SD and ATR is that they are not relative to the past or to other equities to compare to. An application where COV can be used is risk portfolio management formulas. This does not take into account correlation or other equation parts in some portfolio management formulas but only the risk or volatility, the default volatility length is mostly arbitrary, and the lower risk stocks may end up being the slowest in performance.
The text label will show how many shares will be bought and how much value each equity will have. At the end it will show the initial capital that was started off with, the total shares bought, the total value of all the shares, and the amount of capital left over. If the sources are not blank then they will be used, to blank them you will need to reset the settings to default otherwise they might still be read. If you want to add more than the given 10 equity spaces to the portfolio then you will need to add in the code manually and add it to the chart. The denominator is perhaps the important part in these types of risk position sizing tools, you can change to other things such as risk-reward ratio instead of volatility or change the volatility type, etc. Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
[KL] Bollinger Bands Consolidation StrategyThis strategy will enter into long position based on the volatility of prices implied by indicators of (a) Bollinger bands, and (b) ATR.
Application of Bollinger bands ("BOLL")
Using plain vanilla settings for BOLL (i.e. 20 period moving average, and 2 standard deviations of closing prices), we are interested to know about the shape of the area that is bounded by the upper and lower bands.
In theory, consolidation happens when volatility of price decreases. Visually speaking, this is represented by the narrowing of the upper/lower bands. This strategy considers the narrowing of BOLL bands as the primary indicator for long-entry.
Application of ATRs (as confirmations)
Firstly, to confirm that BOLL bands are narrowing (as mentioned above), the ATR at a potential point of entry is compared against the standard deviation of prices over BOLL's lookback periods. Once again, visualizing the shape of BOLL bands during consolidation, we assume the lines begin to squeeze when the distance between the center line and upper/lower band is less than two current ATRs.
Secondly, this strategy looks into the moving average of ATRs to assure that prices are not too choppy when entering into market. If the moving average of ATR decreases at a point in time such that all the above conditions are met, then we can assert that the volatility of price is decreasing.
Thirdly, ATR is used for determining the size of our trailing stop loss. We will keep the multiplier fixed at two. Strategy
