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[BCT] Can BTC be predicted or is it purely random?Variance Ratio**This indicator can be applied to the ticker of your choice (not just BTC)**
Markets are said to be "efficient". An efficient market is by definition unpredictable - no matter the amount of ML, computation, or indicators thrown at it. In particular, in an efficient market, TA will not be of help.
An illustration of efficient markets is the WSJ's longstanding monkey vs. human contest:Blindfolded Monkey Beats Humans With Stock Picks, granted there are several flaws to it.
BTC is a relatively new market. New markets are typically highly inefficient (easier to make money) and become more and more efficient over time (harder to make money). How much more efficient is BTC becoming?
We apply the Variance Ratio method and apply it to BTC.
BACKGROUND ON THE VARIANCE RATIO METHOD
Based on 1988 MacKinlay's seminal paper "Stock Market Prices do not Follow a Random Walk", the idea is to exploit a phenomenon called "variance scaling".
For those keen on looking into the math, the short version of it is under the assumption of iid (random walk) we have the following:
H0: Var(Sum(returns over K bars))=Sum(Var(returns over 1 bar))=k*Var(return over 1 bar)
We look to reject or not H0 depending on the observations.
In this script, we compare the variance of the (log) returns for the chart selected between:
(1) The (average) variance over k bars (call this Vk)
(2) The (average) variance over 1 bar (call this V1)
H0 simply says that Vk=k*V1 if the stock follows a random walk.
We compute the Variance Ratio VR(k)=Variance(returns over k bar)/(Sum(Var(returns over 1 bar)))-1
We then compute the associated Z-score which we chart out for a configurable k number of bars.
HOW TO INTERPRET THE CHART
The line drawn is the Z-Score for VR(k). It represents the number of standard deviations of VR(k) from 0 - the further out, the less random.
- If the line is close / hovers around 0, the ticker appears to follow a random walk (i.e. may not be predictable)
- If the line is consistently > 2 or <-2, the ticker likely does not follow a random walk (i.e. may have predictable features)
- If the line is positive, it means that the Variance on the k bars is larger than the variance on 1 bar (more variance on longer timeframes)
- If the line is negative, it means that the Variance on the k bars is smaller than the variance on 1 bar (more variance on smaller timeframes)
USE CASES
- Identify timeframes where you won't be able to make money
- Identify whether a stock cannot be predicted (forget about TA, indicators etc. -- a random walk is not predictable)
- Identify whether a stock is becoming less and less predictable (Z-score amplitude will decrease over time)
FEATURES
- select the number of K bar to compare vs. 1 bar (default = 16) - ideally a power of 2 but any other number will work. The chart is based off this selection
- select the lookback period for the analysis (500 bars by default)
- select the source to analyze (default = close, but you may select other inputs to calculate the returns from)
- results form the statistical tests on different K's in the table on the right/bottom side of the chart (H0 rejected = not random walk; H0 not rejected = it essentially looks rather random and we can't conclude that it's not a random walk)
COMMENTARY ON BTC
- It appears BTC's absolute value of the ZScore on the Variance Ratio is declining year after year - corroborating an increasingly efficient market as new participants join.
- However, we can still detect a fair amount of potential inefficiency using this simple test.
As usual, this is not investment advice. DYOR.
With love,
🐵BCT🐵
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Risk Metrics: beta 'β', correl 'ρxy', stdev 'σ', variance 'σ²'Portfolio Risk Metrics (Part I):
beta 'β'
The beta coefficient can be interpreted as follows:
β =1 exactly as volatile as the market
β >1 more volatile than the market
β <1>0 less volatile than the market
β =0 uncorrelated to the market
β <0 negatively correlated to the market
excerpt from the Corporate Finance Institute
correlation coefficient 'ρxy'
The correlation coefficient is a value that indicates the strength of the relationship between variables.
The coefficient can take any values from -1 to 1. The interpretations of the values are:
-1: Perfect negative correlation. The variables tend to move in opposite directions
(i.e., when one variable increases, the other variable decreases).
0: No correlation. The variables do not have a relationship with each other.
1: Perfect positive correlation. The variables tend to move in the same direction
(i.e., when one variable increases, the other variable also increases).
excerpt from the Corporate Finance Institute
standard deviation 'σ'
68% of returns will fall within 1 standard deviation of the arithmetic mean
95% of returns will fall within 2 standard deviations of the arithmetic mean
99% of returns will fall within 3 standard deviations of the arithmetic mean
excerpt from Corporate Finance Institute
variance 'σ²'
In investing, variance is used to compare the relative performance of each asset in a portfolio.
Because the results can be difficult to analyze, standard deviation is often used instead of variance.
In either case, the goal for the investor is to improve asset allocation.
excerpt from Investopedia
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Alpha Performance of PeriodAlpha Performance of Period (PoP) produces a visualization of returns (gains and losses) over a quarterly, monthly, or annual period. It also displays the total % gain and loss over any length of days, months, and years as defined by the user.
Performance of Period (PoP) can be used to understand the performance of an asset over multiple periods using a single chart layout, and to compare the performance of different assets by using a multi-chart layout.
This can, for example, be used to compare the NASDAQ, S&P, and DJI over the past 20 years to create a dow vs. nasdaq vs. s&p performance chart. This can help you understand a comparison of historical returns by showing which performs the best month-over-month, quarter-to-quarter, year-to-year, throughout any custom period of days/months/years.
The ability to get a visualization of the % gain/loss can help to better understand how markets have performed over time and which markets have historically performed the best.
Check out the up and coming Educational Idea we will be releasing soon after this is live to see an example of how we use this tool.
Current Period Label
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Current Period : This label shows the current period's performance only when you hover over it.
(This label is located to the left of the current period's open candle and at the current candles close price)
TICKER "Time Period" Performance Label
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Total Period Gain : The total of all % gain periods from the start to end date.
Largest Period Gain : The biggest % gain period from the start to end date.
Total Period Loss : The total of all % loss periods from the start to end date.
Largest Period Loss : The biggest % loss period from the start to end date.
Total period Performance : The total % performance, the difference between the total gain and total loss.
NOTE : The "Current Period" performance is excluded from ALL five of the above-mentioned figures. This was done to avoid giving inaccurate comparison figures due to the period not being finished yet.
Inputs
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Current Script Version + Info : A drop-down list of instructions for the user to refer to.
Dark Mode Labels : Toggle on for Dark Mode. This is done since Labels text and background color can not be adjusted separately within the visual inputs so this is the best fit solution.
Time Period of Returns : Pick the period of performance you would like to emulate monthly/quarterly/annual.
Start Date : The day to start tracking performance.
Start Month : The month to start tracking performance.
Start Year : The year to start tracking performance.
End Date : The day to stop tracking performance.
End Month : The month to stop tracking performance.
End Year : The year to stop tracking performance.
As always if you have any feedback let us know in the comments and leave a like if you enjoy this tool :)
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