Indicator
Silen's Financials Fair ValueIt is finally here! 🔥 My 3rd and most important script in my Financial series! 🚀
Ever imagined to see all fundamentals (or many that is) combined into one indicator that is right on your chart, showing you how your favorite stock is trading compared to its fundamentals?
Well, here is your answer! 📡
____________________________________________________________________________________________
This script shows you my own personal interpretation of fair value, based solely on the financial fundamentals of a company compared to market averages.
I don't believe that certain sectors of the market should be priced higher than others. If you look at historical data you'll see that favored sectors always rotate - placing insanely high P/E multiples on some sectors. Once they are "out" and people rotate away from those sectors you're left with nothing but the naked fundamentals that matter. So, you'll see many companies, that have been doing well on paper, see their share price decline by 70-90% for no other reasons than people favoring other sectors.
That's why it's even more important to focus on fair value that is solely fundamentals-based. Know when your stock gets to expensive. 🤯
____________________________________________________________________________________________
To give you some examples:
- Most Megacaps trade at historically high valuations, several times my fair value. Those include AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, JPM, TSM, V and so on. And no, in the past they partially traded below (my) fair value.
- Most Cybersecurity / Cloud companies are trading at truly massive multiples of my fair value. (NET, DDOG, etc)
- Many Smallcaps & Midcaps are trading several multiples (OESX, CODX, QFIN) below my fair value. And no, in the past they partially traded above (my) fair value.
Ok, so much about the market. You ultimately decide how much you want to orientate on fair value. 👨🏫
____________________________________________________________________________________________
This fair value indicator (purple line):
Takes the P/E rate of the company and compares it to the market (50% weight)
Takes the P/S rate of the company and compares it to the market (50% weight)
Then adds boni and mali f or debt/equity rates and debt and equity itself
Also looks at past growth and calculates future P/E and P/S rates which adds , in some cases, value to the fair value (green line)
Also compares how historical valuations have behaved compared to fair value and simulates a fair value guideline (dark blue line)
____________________________________________________________________________________________
This script is part 3️⃣ of a series of indicators that work well together.
Script 1️⃣ of the series is:
P/E & P/S Rates
Script 2️⃣ of the series is:
Debt & Equity
If you use all 3 scripts together it will look like this, giving you truly deep and simple information about the fundamentals of a company:
Example 1 - AMD
Example 2 - HZO
Example 3 - APPS
I hope this script makes your investing and stock picks a lot easier! 🔆💹🕗
Disclaimer: Fair value is always subjective. There are many different approaches to fair value. This one is only my personal interpretation.
Disclaimer 2: This script works only for the Day-Timeframe.
Disclaimer 3: This script uses 17,5 P/E and 3,0 P/S as market averages. The actual average keeps changing but, historically speaking, these seemed to be good numbers.
Feel free to share your thoughts and feedback! 🙃
Indicator
Indicator
FX Profit CalculatorWith this indicator, you will be able to see how much you earn in forex in dollar terms.
It asks you 3 things when adding the indicator.
TP point
SL point
Position Entry point
If you have selected the TP point above, the entry zone below it, and the SL point below it, the indicator will automatically understand that there is a BUY order and will make the calculations accordingly.
The same is true for the opposite.
When you use the indicator in any parity, you will have problems switching to other parities.
So either use it only in one parity, or update your targets from the indicator settings at every parity change.
You will get the same error if:
Your trading entry point should be between your TP and SL points. If you do not set it this way, the indicator will warn that please fix it.
If you are in the trade, tick the settings and show the dollar-based profit of your position according to the instant closing price.
The percentage variable works like this:
When you adjust for one parity, shifts occur in the chart when you switch to the other parity. When switching to non-circulating graphics at the same prices, the user is prompted to re-enter so that the graphic does not deteriorate.
BONUS : You can move these lines up and down with your mouse on the graphic :)
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Silen's Financials P/E & P/S[x10] RatesThis script aims to give a better visualization of P/E and P/S rates compared to the build-in "Price to earnings ratio" and "Price to sales ratio" in the "Financials" Section of Tradingview. For those of you don't know, those rates compare earnings and sales with your share price in regard to market cap and outstanding shares.
The scripts differs to the build-in versions in the following points:
- P/E & P/S rates are combined in one indicator
- Negative P/E rates are displayed better: Positive P/E rates are green, Negative P/E rates are red
- For visualization reasons, the indicator will cap positive and negative P/E rates at 100. (P/E rates above those levels are not siginificant either way)
- P/E & P/S rate are directly displayed on the graph
- Both P/E and P/S rates are combined on one left scale
- For visualization reasons, P/S rate is showing 10x the actual P/S rate. Using the standard P/S rate would result in hard-to-recognize changes of the P/S line.
To sum up:
- Positive P/E rates are green
- Negative P/E rate are red
- P/S rates are multiplied by 1 0
- P/S rates are yellow
How to use P/E and P/S rates:
The US market average for P/E rates is roughly ~18 in the US right now (10/2022) while the market average for P/S rates is roughly ~3 in the US. Note that average P/E and P/S can change when the market situation changes.
P/E and P/S rates help you value your stock better and help you decide whether your stock is undervalued or overvalued compared to the market or the industry when it comes to earnings and sales. If you compare to Market averages, a positive P/E of less than 18 means that your stock is likely unvervalued. A P/S rate below 3 (30 in the chart!) means that your stock is likely undervalued as well. If your stock shows rates above those, it is likely that it is overvalued compared to market averages.
Please note that P/E and P/S rates are not the only factors that make up a stock valuation. Valuations are complex and subjective.
A positive P/E rate also means that your company is profitable.
A Negative P/E rate means that your company is unprofitable.
If you have any questions or feedback let me know!
Disclaimer: This script doesn't show the actual P/S rate. It shows the P/S rate multiplied by 10, due to visualization issues. Positive P/E Rates above 100 are displayed as 100. Positive P/E rates are green, Negative P/E rates are red and multiplied by -1.
Disclaimer2: @Tradingview_Team: I couldn't find the right category for this script but categories are mandatory. I assume that "Breadth Indicators" is still the closest there is. Please let me know if you want me to change the category.
Disclaimer3: For visualization, the opacity of the displayed image is 70%. The standard opacity for the P/E and P/S lines is 50% and can be changed in the indicator settings. I found this setting more useful when working together with other indicators on the same chart
Disclaimer4: Earnings Per Share, Total Revenue used are TTM. Total Shares Outstanding used are FQ. Indicator
Indicator
Harmonic Trading Ratios Educational (Source Code)This table indicator was intended as educational purpose only for Harmonic Trading Ratios.
The ratios are used for Harmonic AB=CD and XAB=CD.
Ratio calculation are shown for Retracement and Projection based Primary, Primary Derived, Secondary Derived and Secondary Derived Extreme.
Primary Retracement : 0.618
Primary Projection : 1.618
Please take note that Secondary Derived Extreme is only available for Projection.
Indikator berjadual bertujuan sebagai pendidikan sahaja untuk Harmonic Trading Ratios.
Ratio digunakan untuk Harmonic AB=CD and XAB=CD.
Pengiraan ratio untuk Retracement and Projection adalah berdasarkan Primary, Primary Derived, Secondary Derived dan Secondary Derived Extreme.
Primary Retracement : 0.618
Primary Projection : 1.618
Sila ambil perhatian bahawa Secondary Derived Extreme adalah untuk Projection sahaja.
The values shown in table was based on Harmonic Trading: Volume One, Page 18 written by Scott M Carney.
Nilai yang ditunjukkan dalam jadual adalah berdasarkan buku Harmonic Trading: Volume One, Page 18 ditulis oleh Scott M Carney.
Indicator features :
1. List Harmonic Trading Ratios including calculation.
2. Show and draw individual Harmonic Trading Ratio.
3. For desktop display only, not for mobile.
Kemampuan indikator :
1. Senarai Harmonic Trading Ratios termasuk pengiraan.
2. Memapar dan melukis Harmonic Trading Ratio secara berasingan.
3. Untuk paparan desktop sahaja, bukan untuk mobile.
FAQ
1. Credits / Kredit
Scott M Carney,
Scott M Carney, Harmonic Trading: Volume One
2. Code Usage / Penggunaan Kod
Free to use for personal usage but credits are most welcomed especially for credits to Scott M Carney.
Bebas untuk kegunaan peribadi tetapi kredit adalah amat dialu-alukan terutamanya kredit kepada Scott M Carney.
Display for Bullish / Bearish Retracement
Paparan untuk Bullish / Bearish Retracement
Display for Primary Retracement and Primary Projection
Paparan untuk Primary Retracement and Primary Projection
Display for Secondary Derived Extreme Retracement and Secondary Derived Extreme Projection
Paparan untuk Secondary Derived Extreme Retracement and Secondary Derived Extreme Projection
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
SPX Excess CAPE YieldHere we are looking at the Excess CAPE yield for the SPX500 over the last 100+ years
"A higher CAPE meant a lower subsequent 10-year return, and vice versa. The R-squared was a phenomenally high 0.9 — the CAPE on its own was enough to explain 90% of stocks’ subsequent performance over a decade. The standard deviation was 1.37% — in other words, two-thirds of the time the prediction was within 1.37 percentage points of the eventual outcome: this over a quarter-century that included an equity bubble, a credit bubble, two epic bear markets, and a decade-long bull market."
assets.bwbx.io
In December of 2020 Dr. Robert Shiller the Yale Nobel Laurate suggested that an improvement on CAPE could be made by taking its inverse (the CAPE earnings yield) and subtracting the us10 year treasury yield.
"His model plainly suggests that stocks will do badly over the next 10 years, and that bonds will do even worse. This was the way Shiller put it in a research piece for Barclays Plc in October, (which can be found on SSRN Below):
In summary, investors expect a certain return in equities as compensation for investing in a riskier asset class, and as interest rates have declined, the relative expected return for equities has increased dramatically. We believe this may quantitatively help to explain investors current preference for equities over bonds, and as such the quick recoveries we are observing (with the exception of the UK), whilst still in the midst of a pandemic. In the US in particular, we are once again observing stretched valuations and high CAPE ratios compared to history."
Sources:
papers.ssrn.com
www.bloomberg.com
The standard trading view disclaimer applies to this post -- please consult your own investment advisor before making investment decisions. This post is for observation only and has no warranty etc. www.pulsewire.com
Best,
JM Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
Indicator
