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MACD including 6-period Forecast and Divergences█ OVERVIEW
This is my personal interpretation of the classic MACD Indicator. I am using the MACD as part of my analysis, and often I was wondering when I can expect the next signal (e.g. a Histogram cross). As I had come across some EMA forecast logics on pulsewire, my goal was to use the EMA forecast calculation as basis to come to a complete MACD forecast. Here is the result.
Starting point is the classic MACD which is then plotted with MACD-Line, Signal Line and Histogram. In addition to the classic MACD, a 6 period Forecast for MACD, Signal and Histogram is available and divergences can be displayed on either the Histogram or the MACD Line.
Important:
As I am considering the closing price of the current candle as the basis for the calculation, the forecast values will REPAINT. But in my opinion this is fine as this indicator will not provide direct trading signals, but more an outlook into a potential future.
█ CALCULATION LOGIC
Below some details regarding the additional functionalities:
MACD Forecast:
The MACD Forecast is mainly based on a combination of EMA Forecasts. The inspiration for this basic forecast calculation is taken from the below pulsewire members:
--> EMA Forecast input taken from "Triple MA Forecast" by yatrader2
--> Forecast Bias input taken from "Fancy Bollinger Bands" by BigBitsIO
When showing the forecast, the following options are available:
- Forecast Type: Determines if the Forecast is assuming a Flat price (last values of the MA calculation are replaced by current value) or if a Linear Regression is taken
- Number of candles taken for Linear Regression Calculation
- Bias of Forecast (Based on the recent Average True Range, the forecast values are either more bullish or more bearish calculated. "Neutral" turns off this function)
- Number of ATR Periods used to calculate Bias adjustment value
- Possibility to weight the Bias via a Multiplier - Default value is 1
Based on the above inputs, the forecasted values for MACD, Signal Line and Histogram are calculated and plotted for the next 6 periods.
Divergence Detection:
Based on the default pulsewire divergence script with some adjustments:
- User can select to use either Histogram or MACD Line as basis for Divergence detection (Histogram by default)
- User can select if Divergence detection should be based on the candles including Wicks or only the Candle Bodies (Wicks by default)
█ DISCLAIMER
This is an experimental indicator and I do not know if my theory works in real life. So treat this not as financial advise, but purely for entertainment and educational purposes.
I publish this code open so that everyone can re-use it or hopefully even improve it.
Let me know if you have any ideas for improvement and if it is within my coding capabilities (which to be honest are quite limited), I will try to accomodate it.
Have fun. Indicator
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Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & MACD Crossover with Trail and Stop
This is a modification of @HPotter "Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & MACD Crossover" script.
I've added a trail stop, basic leverage simulation and stop loss.
Below is HPotter's explanation of the script principals.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
MACD – Moving Average Convergence Divergence. The MACD is calculated
by subtracting a 26-day moving average of a security's price from a
12-day moving average of its price. The result is an indicator that
oscillates above and below zero. When the MACD is above zero, it means
the 12-day moving average is higher than the 26-day moving average.
This is bullish as it shows that current expectations (i.e., the 12-day
moving average) are more bullish than previous expectations (i.e., the
26-day average). This implies a bullish , or upward, shift in the supply/demand
lines. When the MACD falls below zero, it means that the 12-day moving average
is less than the 26-day moving average, implying a bearish shift in the
supply/demand lines.
A 9-day moving average of the MACD (not of the security's price) is usually
plotted on top of the MACD indicator. This line is referred to as the "signal"
line. The signal line anticipates the convergence of the two moving averages
(i.e., the movement of the MACD toward the zero line).
Let's consider the rational behind this technique. The MACD is the difference
between two moving averages of price. When the shorter-term moving average rises
above the longer-term moving average (i.e., the MACD rises above zero), it means
that investor expectations are becoming more bullish (i.e., there has been an
upward shift in the supply/demand lines). By plotting a 9-day moving average of
the MACD , we can see the changing of expectations (i.e., the shifting of the
supply/demand lines) as they occur.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors. Strategy
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CT Reverse MACD CrossIntroducing the Reverse MACD Cross
MACD.... short for moving average convergence/divergence, is a trading indicator used in technical analysis of stock prices, created by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s.
It is designed to reveal changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock's price.
Prior work by Johny Dough showed how we can compute the price level required to make the MACD stay at its current level,
and also how to compute the price level required for the MACD to cross the zero line.
I have brought that idea to it logical conclusion for the MACD by creating a new function which also computes the price level required to cross the MACD with its signal line.
This allows the user to quickly see all of the most relevant information from the MACD and the actual price levels where the indicator will change its posture.
The MACD indicator (or "oscillator") is a collection of three time series calculated from historical price data, most often the closing price.
These three series are:
the MACD series proper shown here in blue
the "Signal Line" or "average" series shown here in red
the "Divergence" series which is the difference between the two shown here as a histogram.
There is also usually a baseline set at zero.
The MACD series is the difference between a "fast" (short period) exponential moving average (EMA), and a "slow" (longer period) EMA of the price series.
The average series (signal line) is an EMA of the MACD series itself.
The MACD indicator thus depends on three parameters, namely the time periods of the three EMAs.
The notation "MACD ( a, b, c )" usually denotes the standard indicator where the MACD series is the difference of EMAs with characteristic times a and b, and the average series is an EMA of the MACD series with characteristic time c.
There is an infobox which displays...
Whether the MACD is falling or rising
the price level which will make the MACD to change from rising to falling or vice versa
the price level which will cause the MACD to cross the signal line
the price level which will cause the MACD to cross the zero line
The most commonly used values are 12 for the fast, 26 for the slow, and 9 for the signal line, that is, MACD ( 12, 26, 9 ) .
The MACD and average series are customarily displayed as continuous lines in a plot whose horizontal axis is time oscillating above and below a zero line, whereas the divergence is commonly shown as a bar graph / histogram.
A fast EMA responds more quickly than a slow EMA to recent changes in a stock's price.
By comparing EMAs of different periods, the MACD series can indicate changes in the trend of a stock.
It is claimed that the divergence series can reveal subtle shifts in the stock's trend.
Since the MACD is based on moving averages, it is a lagging indicator. As a future metric of price trends, the MACD is less useful for stocks that are not trending (trading in a range) or are trading with unpredictable price action.
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