Indicator
Central Bank Liquidity Gap IndicatorThis indicator measures the gap between global liquidity growth and stock market growth to identify potential buying opportunities.
Liquidity drives markets. When central banks print money, that liquidity eventually flows into stocks and other assets. If we spot when liquidity growth is outpacing market growth, we can spot moments when the market is "due" to catch up.
I like this quote:
Earnings don't move the overall market; it's the Federal Reserve Board... focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity."
- Stanley Druckenmiller
How Central Bank Liquidity Gap Indicator Works
The indicator calculates a simple divergence:
Divergence = Liquidity Growth % − S&P 500 Growth %
Green bars = Liquidity is growing faster than the market (bullish)
Red bars = Market is growing faster than liquidity (less bullish)
Multi-Country M2 Money Supply
Unlike basic M2 indicators, this one lets you combine money supply data from multiple economies, including US, UK, Canada, China, Eurozone, Switzerland and Japan.
Each country's M2 is automatically weighted by its actual size (converted to USD). Larger economies have more influence on the global liquidity picture.
I've added a discount for China. China's M2 weight is reduced by 50% to account for capital controls that limit how much Chinese liquidity flows into global markets and into the US market.
Fed Net Liquidity
You can also blend in Fed Net Liquidity for a more precise US liquidity measure:
Net Liquidity = Fed Balance Sheet − Treasury General Account − Reverse Repo
This captures the actual liquidity the Fed has injected into financial markets, not just the broad money supply.
How To Read It
The Buy Zone (5%+ Divergence)
When the divergence exceeds +5%, the indicator enters the "Buy Zone" (highlighted with green background). This means liquidity is significantly outpacing market growth — historically a good buy signal.
The Support Table
The info table shows:
Component weights: How much each country's M2 contributes
Corr w/ SPX: Current correlation between liquidity and SPX (are they moving together?)
Leads SPX by X: Does past liquidity predict future SPX moves? (higher = more predictive)
Divergence %: Current divergence value
Signal
Correlation Stats
Corr w/ SPX: Measures if liquidity and SPX are moving in sync right now
Leads SPX: Measures if liquidity changes predict future SPX moves. A positive value here suggests liquidity is a leading indicator.
Potential Use Cases
Long-term investing: Wait for 5%+ divergence (buy zone) to accumulate index funds, ETFs, or stocks
Leveraged ETFs: Use buy zone signals to time entries into UPRO, TQQQ, SSO (higher risk, higher reward)
Crypto: Bitcoin and crypto markets also correlate with global liquidity — use this for BTC accumulation timing
Risk management: Avoid adding positions when divergence is deeply negative
Important Notes
This is a long-term indicator and not for daytrading. It works best used on Daily/Weekly timeframes
It identifies accumulation zones and not precise bottoms
Truly yours, Henrique Centieiro
Inspired by the relationship between M2 money supply and market performance, enhanced with multi-country liquidity tracking and Fed balance sheet analysis.
Let me know if you have questions/suggestions.
Indicator
Blockcircle Global Central Bank Balance Sheet and Money SupplyOVERVIEW
This indicator aggregates money supply (M2) and central bank balance sheet data from the world's largest economies into a single, unified view of global liquidity conditions. Rather than manually tracking dozens of separate data feeds or building your own aggregation logic, you get a ready-to-use tool that pulls from FRED, PulseWire Economics, and real-time FX rates to convert everything into USD terms automatically.
Global liquidity has historically served as a leading indicator for risk assets. When central banks expand their balance sheets and the money supply grows, capital tends to flow into equities, crypto, and other risk-on assets. When liquidity contracts, markets often follow. This indicator gives you that macro context directly on your chart.
The global liquidity movement (expansionary or contractionary) often leads to asset price appreciation/depreciation in CRYPTOCAP:BTC , SP:SPX , etc
WHAT MAKES IT ORIGINAL AND DIFFERENT
Combines both M2 money supply AND central bank balance sheet data in one place, whereas most existing tools focus on only one metric
Aggregates 11 economies for M2 (USA, EU, China, Japan, UK, Canada, India, Russia, Brazil, Australia, Switzerland) and 10 central banks for balance sheet data
Automatically handles currency conversion using live FX rates so all values display in USD
Includes a dedicated US Net Liquidity calculation (Fed Balance Sheet minus Reverse Repo minus TGA) which filters out temporary distortions that other aggregate tools ignore
Provides granular country by country breakdown in the information table so you can identify which central banks are driving the aggregate trend
Offers four moving average types (SMA, EMA, WMA, RMA) for trend smoothing with configurable length
HOW IT WORKS
The indicator requests monthly M2 data from PulseWire's Economics feeds for each included country. Central bank balance sheet data is pulled the same way. All non-USD values are converted using daily FX rates from major currency pairs. The script then sums these converted values to produce the Global M2 and Global CBBS lines.
For US liquidity specifically, the script pulls weekly data for the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) and Treasury General Account (TGA) from FRED. Net Liquidity is calculated as: Fed Balance Sheet minus RRP minus TGA. This formula removes funds parked in reverse repos and Treasury cash balances, showing what is actually circulating in the financial system.
KEY FEATURES
Global M2 Money Supply line tracking 11 major economies with individual toggles for each country
Global Central Bank Balance Sheet line tracking 10 central banks with individual toggles
US-specific components, including Reverse Repo, TGA, and Net Liquidity as separate plot lines
Moving average overlays with selectable type and length for identifying trend direction
Fill the option between M2 and CBBS lines to visualize the gap between money supply and central bank assets
Value labels at line endpoints showing current readings and period-over-period percentage change
Comprehensive information table with optional country breakdown view
Full color customization for all lines, configurable line width, and style options
Alert conditions for significant M2 and CBBS changes plus MA crossover signals
HOW TO USE
Add to any chart and observe the overall direction of global liquidity. Rising lines generally support risk on positioning, while declining lines suggest caution
Watch for divergences between the M2 and CBBS lines. If money supply grows faster than central bank assets, private credit may be expanding. If CBBS rises faster, central banks are actively injecting liquidity
Use the US Net Liquidity line to understand short term dollar liquidity conditions separate from longer term global trends
Enable moving averages to filter noise and identify when liquidity trends are changing direction
Toggle individual countries on or off in the settings to see how specific regions contribute to the total
Reference the information table for exact values and percentage changes without leaving your chart
SETTINGS BREAKDOWN
Table Settings: position, text size, and whether to show the country breakdown
Display Settings: toggle visibility for each line, fill area, value labels, percent labels, and the info table
Line Styling: customize colors for each metric, adjust line width, and select solid, dashed, or dotted style
Moving Average: enable or disable MA overlays for M2 and CBBS, select MA type, and set length
Global M2 Countries: individually enable or disable each of the 11 economies
US Liquidity Components: toggle RRP and TGA data
Global CBBS Countries: individually enable or disable each of the 10 central banks
Alerts: set percentage threshold for change based alerts
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS
Data updates depend on the publication schedule of each source. M2 and CBBS data are typically monthly with some delay. US Fed Balance Sheet, US RRP and US TGA update weekly
FX conversion uses daily close rates which may introduce minor discrepancies during volatile currency periods
Some emerging market data may have longer reporting lags than developed market data
Hope you find it useful and impactful to your trading and investment decisions! If you have any questions at all, please just ask, happy to help Indicator
Liquidity Regime OscillatorThe Liquidity Signal Line is a macro-driven confirmation tool designed to capture the underlying global liquidity regime in a single, smoothed oscillator. It measures the combined directional flow of monetary and financial conditions using high-impact macro data: Federal Reserve assets (WALCL), Treasury General Account (TGA), and the Overnight Reverse Repo facility (RRP) – adjusted by key market proxies such as the U.S. Dollar Index, credit spreads (HYG/LQD), and equity risk appetite (SPHB/SPHQ). These components are normalized, weighted, and then double-smoothed into a stable signal that translates complex liquidity dynamics into a simple 0–100 scale.
Liquidity expansion provides fuel for risk assets, while contraction drains leverage and risk appetite. The Signal Line acts as a confirmation overlay for trend and allocation strategies, showing whether systemic liquidity is broadly supportive or restrictive. Readings above 50 indicate an expansionary environment (risk-on bias), below 50 a contractionary one (risk-off bias). Because the calculation uses higher-timeframe macro data, it can be displayed on any chart to give traders a consistent, regime-aware signal that bridges macro policy and technical execution. Indicator
[c3s] CWS - M2 Global Liquidity Index & BTC Correlation CWS - M2 Global Liquidity Index with Offset BTC Correlation
This custom indicator visualizes and analyzes the relationship between the global M2 money supply and Bitcoin (BTC) price movements. It calculates the correlation between these two variables to provide insights into how changes in global liquidity may impact Bitcoin’s price over time.
Key Features:
Global M2 Liquidity Index Calculation:
Fetches M2 money supply data from multiple economies (China, US, EU, Japan, UK) and normalizes using currency exchange rates (e.g., CNY/USD, EUR/USD).
Combines all M2 data points and normalizes by dividing by 1 trillion (1e12) for easier visualization.
Offset for M2 Data:
The offset parameter allows users to shift the M2 data by a specified number of days, helping track the influence of past global liquidity on Bitcoin.
BTC Price Correlation:
Computes the correlation between shifted global M2 liquidity and Bitcoin (BTC) price, using a 52-day lookback period by default.
Correlation Quality Display:
Categorizes correlation quality as:
Excellent : Correlation >= 0.8
Good : Correlation >= 0.6 and < 0.8
Weak : Correlation >= 0.4 and < 0.6
Very Weak : Correlation < 0.4
Displays correlation quality as a label on the chart for easy assessment.
Visual Enhancements:
Labels : Displays dynamic labels on the chart with metrics like M2 value and correlation.
Plot Shapes : Uses shapes to indicate data availability for global M2 and correlation.
Data Table : Optionally shows a data table in the top-right corner summarizing:
Global M2 value (in trillions)
The correlation between global M2 and BTC
The correlation quality
Optional Debugging:
Debug plots help identify when data is missing for M2 or correlation, ensuring transparency and accurate functionality.
Inputs:
Offset: Shift the M2 data (in days) to see past liquidity effects on Bitcoin.
Lookback Period: Number of periods (default 52) used to calculate the correlation.
Show Labels: Toggle to show or hide labels for M2 and correlation values.
Show Table: Toggle to show or hide the data table in the top-right corner.
Usage:
Ideal for traders and analysts seeking to understand the relationship between global liquidity and Bitcoin price. The offset and lookback period can be adjusted to explore different timeframes and correlation strengths, aiding more informed trading decisions. Indicator
SulLaLuna — HTF M2 x Ultimate BB (Fusion) 🌕 **SulLaLuna — HTF M2 x Ultimate BB (Fusion)** 🚀💵
**By SulLaLuna Trading**
(Portions of the Bollinger Band logic adapted with permission/credit from the *Ultimate Buy & Sell Indicator* by its original author — thank you for the brilliance!)
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🧭 **What This Is**
This is not just another price-following tool.
This is **a macro liquidity detector** — a **Daily Higher Timeframe Hull Moving Average of the Global M2 Money Supply**, smoothed via lower timeframe candles (default 5m, 48 Hull length), overlaid with **Ultimate-style double Bollinger Bands** to reveal *over-extension & mean reversion zones*.
It doesn’t chase candles.
It watches the tides beneath the market — the **money supply currents** that have a **direct correlation** to asset price behavior.
When liquidity expands → risk-on assets tend to rise.
When liquidity contracts → risk-off waves hit.
We ride those waves.
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🔍 **What It Does**
* **Tracks Global M2** across major economies, FX-adjusted, and scales it to your chart’s price.
* **HTF Hull MA** (Daily, smoothed via 5m base) → gives you the macro liquidity trend.
* **Ultimate BB logic** applied to the HTF M2 Hull → inner/outer bands for volatility envelopes.
* **Pivot Labels** → ideal entry/exit zones on macro turns.
* **Over-Extension Alerts** → when HTF M2 Hull pushes outside the outer bands.
* **Re-Entry Alerts** → mean reversion triggers when liquidity moves back inside the range.
* **Background Paint** from chart TF M2 slope → for confluence on your entry timeframe.
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📜 **Suggested How-To**
1. **Choose your execution chart** — e.g., 1–15m for scalps, 1H–4H for swings.
2. **Use the background paint** as your *local tide check* (chart TF M2 slope).
3. **Trade in the direction of the HTF M2 Hull** — green line = liquidity rising, red line = liquidity falling.
4. **Watch pivot labels** — these are potential “macro inflection” points.
5. **Confluence stack** — pair with ZLSMA, WaveTrend divergences, VWAP volume, or your favorite price-action setups.
6. **Size down** when HTF M2 Hull is flat/gray (chop zone).
7. **Scale in/out** on over-extension + re-entry alerts for higher probability swings.
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⚠️ **Important Note**
This indicator **does not predict price** — it tracks macro liquidity flows that *influence* price.
Think of it as your market’s **tide chart**: when the water’s coming in, you can swim out; when it’s going out, you’d better be ready for the undertow.
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📢 **Alerts Available**
* HTF Pivot HIGH / LOW
* Over-Extension (HTF Hull outside outer BB)
* Re-Entry (return from overbought/oversold)
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🤝 **Join the SulLaLuna Tribe**
If this indicator helps you capture better entries, follow & share so more traders can learn to trade *math, not emotion*.
We rise together — **and we’ll meet you on the Moon** 🌕🚀💵.
Indicator
DECODE Global Liquidity IndexDECODE Global Liquidity Index 🌊
The DECODE Global Liquidity Index is a powerful tool designed to track and aggregate global liquidity by combining data from the world's 13 largest economies. It offers a comprehensive view of financial liquidity, providing crucial insights into the underlying currents that can influence asset prices and market trends.
The economies covered are: United States, China, European Union, Japan, India, United Kingdom, Brazil, Canada, Russia, South Korea, Australia, Mexico, and Indonesia. The European Union accounts for major individual economies within the EU like Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, etc.
Key Features:
1. Customizable Liquidity Sources
Include Global M2: You can opt to include the M2 money supply from the 13 listed economies. M2 is a broad measure of money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, money market securities, mutual funds, and other time deposits. (Note: Australia uses M3 as its primary measure, which is included when M2 is selected for Australia).
Include Central Bank Balance Sheets (CBBS): Alternatively, or in addition, you can include the total assets held by the central banks of these economies. Central bank balance sheets expand or contract based on monetary policy operations like quantitative easing (QE) or tightening (QT).
Combined View: If you select both M2 and CBBS, and data is available for both, the indicator will display an average of the two aggregated values. If only one source type is selected, or if data for one type is unavailable despite both being selected, the indicator will display the single available and selected component. This provides flexibility in how you define and analyze global liquidity.
2. Lead/Lag Analysis (Forward Projection):
Lead Offset (Days): This feature allows you to project the liquidity index forward by a specified number of days.
Why it's useful: Global liquidity changes can often be a leading indicator for various asset classes, particularly those sensitive to risk appetite, like Bitcoin or growth stocks. These assets might lag shifts in liquidity. By applying a lead (e.g., 90 days), you can shift the liquidity data forward on your chart to more easily visualize potential correlations and identify if current asset price movements might be responding to past changes in liquidity.
3. Rate of Change (RoC) Oscillator:
Year-over-Year % View: Instead of viewing aggregate liquidity, you can switch to a Year-over-Year (YoY%) Rate of Change (ROC) oscillator.
Why it's useful:
Momentum Identification: The ROC highlights the speed and direction of liquidity changes. Positive values indicate liquidity is increasing compared to a year ago, while negative values show it's decreasing.
Turning Points: Oscillators make it easier to spot potential accelerations, decelerations, or reversals in liquidity trends. A cross above the zero line can signal strengthening liquidity momentum, while a cross below can signal weakening momentum.
Cycle Analysis: It helps in assessing the cyclical nature of liquidity provision and its potential impact on market cycles.
This indicator aims to provide a clear, customizable, and insightful measure of global liquidity to aid traders and investors in their market analysis. Indicator
Global M2 Money Supply Top20 + Offset & WaveThe M2 Top20 is a global aggregation of the M2 money supply from the 20 largest economies in the world , providing a comprehensive view of the total liquidity in the global financial system. It is expressed in trillions of USD.
This script calculates and visualizes the M2 Money Supply of the Top 20 Global Economies, adjusted to various timeframes (4H, 1D, 1W, 1M) with customizable offset adjustments (in days) from -1000 days to +1000 days. This indicator includes data from the Americas, Europe, Africa, and the Asia Middle East , offering a diverse and balanced representation of major economic regions. The M2 of each country has been converted to USD.
Additionally, the user can set a minimum and maximum offset to create a wave around the main offset and expand the comparison.
Combining these options, this indicator enables users to visualize a range of the global money supply, making it useful for market analysis, economic forecasting, and understanding macroeconomic trends. This indicator is particularly valuable for traders and analysts interested in understanding the dynamics of global monetary systems and their potential impact on financial markets.
Key Features:
Global M2 Money Supply calculation from the Top 20 Economies.
Adjustable Offset: Adjust the offset to align the indicator with the best bar. Adjustment in days, usable on different timeframes (1D, 1W, 4H, 1M).
Wave Projection: Displays a "probability cloud"—a smoothed area that shows the probable path of Bitcoin, derived from shifts in global liquidity.
Min/Max Offset Adjustments: Customizable offsets allow you to determine the range of future windows, helping to shape the wave and better identify liquidity-driven turning points.
Use Cases:
Economic Forecasting: Identify trends in global money supply and their potential market impact (e.g., historically leads Bitcoin price by +/- 78 days to +/-108 days).
Market Analysis: Track the growth or contraction of money supply across key economies.
Macro-Economic Analysis: Understand the relationship between monetary policies and market performance.
How to use:
Add the indicator to your chart.
Set the timeframe to 1D to customize the offset.
Set the Offset (in days).
Set the Offset Range Minimum and Maximum.
Show/Hide the Range Wave
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Use offset = 0 to have the indicator align directly with the current data, without any shift, providing a baseline for comparison with the most recent market conditions.
Countries included in the M2 Top20:
China (CN), Japan (JP), South Korea (KR), Hong Kong (HK), Taiwan (TW), India (IN), Saudi Arabia (SA), Thailand (TH), Vietnam (VN), United Arab Emirates (AE), Malawi (MW) – Africa, United States (US), Canada (CA), Brazil (BR), Mexico (MX), Eurozone (EU), United Kingdom (GB), Russia (RU), Poland (PL), Switzerland (CH).
These countries were selected from the ranking of the World Economy Indicator of Trading View . Indicator
My-Indicator - Global Liquidity & Money Supply M2 + Time OffsetThis script is designed to visualize a global liquidity and money supply index by combining data from various regions and, optionally, central bank activity. Visualizing this data on a chart allows you to see how central banks are intervening in the financial system and how the total amount of money in the economy is changing. Let’s take a look at how it works:
Central Bank Liquidity
Shows the actions of central banks (e.g. FED, ECB) providing short-term cash to commercial banks. If you see spikes or a steady increase in these indicators, it may suggest that liquidity is being increased through intervention, which often stimulates the market.
Money Supply
M2 money supply is a monetary aggregate that includes M1 (cash and current deposits) plus savings deposits, small term deposits, and other financial instruments that, while not as liquid as M1, can be quickly converted into cash. As a result, M2 provides a broader picture of the available money in the economy, which is useful for analyzing market conditions and potential economic trends.
How does it help investors?
It allows you to quickly see when central banks are injecting additional liquidity, which could signal higher prices.
It allows you to see trends in the money supply, which informs potential changes in inflation and the economic cycle.
Combining both sets of data provides a more complete picture – both in the short and long term – which makes it easier to predict upcoming price movements.
This allows investors to better respond to changes in central bank policy and broader monetary trends, increasing their chances of making better investment decisions.
Data Collection
The script retrieves money supply data for key markets such as the USA (USM2), Europe (EUM2), China (CNM2), and Japan (JPM2). It also offers additional money supply series for other markets—like Canada (CAM2), Great Britain (GBM2), Russia (RUM2), Brazil (BRM2), Mexico (MXM2), and New Zealand (NZM2)—with extra options (e.g., Australia, India, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sweden) disabled by default. Moreover, you can enable data for central bank liquidity (such as FED, RRP, TGA, ECB, PBC, BOJ, and other central banks), which are also disabled by default.
Index Calculation
The indicator calculates the index by adding together all the enabled money supply series (and the central bank data if activated) and then scales the sum by dividing it by 1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion). This scaling makes the resulting values more manageable and easier to read on the chart.
Time Offset Feature
A key feature of the script is the time offset. With the input parameter "Time Offset (days)", the user can shift the plotted index line by a specific number of days. The script converts the given offset in days into a number of bars based on the current chart's timeframe. This allows you to adjust for the delay between liquidity changes and their effect on asset prices.
Overall, the indicator plots a line on your chart representing the global liquidity and money supply index, allowing you to visually monitor trends and better understand how liquidity and central bank actions may influence market movements.
What makes this script different from others?
Every supported market—both major regions (USA, Eurozone, China, Japan, etc.) and additional ones—is available. You can toggle each series on or off, so you can view only Money Supply data, only Central Bank Liquidity, or any custom combination.
Separated Data Groups. Inputs are organized into clear groups (“Money Supply”, “Other Money Supply”, “Central Bank Liquidity”), making it easy to focus on just the data you need without clutter.
True Day‑Based Offset. This script converts your chosen “Time Offset (days)” into actual days regardless of timeframe. Whether you’re on a 5‑minute or daily chart, the index is always shifted by exactly the number of days you specify.
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M2 Liqudity WaveGlobal Liquidity Wave Indicator (M2-Based)
The Global Liquidity Wave Indicator is designed to track and visualize the impact of global M2 liquidity on risk assets—especially those highly correlated to monetary expansion, like Bitcoin, MSTR, and other macro-sensitive equities.
Key features include:
Leading Signal: Historically leads Bitcoin price action by approximately 70 days, offering traders and analysts a forward-looking edge.
Wave-Based Projection: Visualizes a "probability cloud"—a smoothed band representing the most likely trajectory for Bitcoin based on changes in global liquidity.
Min/Max Offset Controls: Adjustable offsets let you define the range of lookahead windows to shape the wave and better capture liquidity-driven inflection points.
Explicit Offset Visualization: Option to manually specify an exact offset to fine-tune the overlay, ideal for testing hypotheses or aligning with macro narratives.
Macro Alignment: Particularly effective for assets with high sensitivity to global monetary policy and liquidity cycles.
This tool is not just a chart overlay—it's a lens into the liquidity engine behind the market, helping anticipate directional bias in advance of price moves.
How to use?
- Enable the indicator for BTCUSD.
- Set Offset Range Start and End to 70 and 115 days
- Set Specific Offset to 78 days (this can change so you'll need to play around)
FAQ
Why a global liquidity wave?
The global liquidity wave accounts for variability in how much global liquidity affects an underlying asset. Think of the Global Liquidity Wave as an area that tracks the most probable path of Bitcoin, MSTR, etc. based on the total global liquidity.
Why the offset?
Global liquidity takes time to make its way into assets such as #Bitcoin, Strategy, etc. and there can be many reasons for that. It's never a specific number of days of offset, which is why a global liquidity wave is helpful in tracking probable paths for highly correlated risk assets. Indicator
M2 Global Liquidity Index [Extended + Offset]M2 Global Liquidity Index
This indicator visualizes global M2 money supply, weighted in USD, based on major economic regions.
Features:
Standard Mode: Includes M2 data from the USA, China, Eurozone, Japan, and the UK.
Extended Mode: Adds Switzerland, Canada, India, Russia, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, and South Africa.
Offset Function: Adjustable time lag (78 or 108 days) to analyze the delayed impact of liquidity on financial markets.
Use Case:
Designed to help identify global liquidity cycles and assess potential turning points in financial markets. Rising global liquidity generally supports risk assets like equities and crypto, while declining liquidity can put downward pressure on these markets.
Technical Details:
Non-USD M2 values are converted using real-time FX rates.
All values are displayed in trillions of USD (Tn).
Note:
Not all countries release M2 data in real-time or at the same frequency. Minor delays and discrepancies may occur.
Example:
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Global M2 Money Supply (USD) GrowthThe Global M2 Growth indicator evaluates the total liquid money supply, including cash, checking deposits, and assets that can be easily converted to cash. It reflects changes in global liquidity by tracking year-on-year (YoY) changes in the Global M2 money supply rather than its absolute value. This approach highlights the velocity of liquidity expansion or contraction, offering a clearer understanding of its correlation with asset performance, such as Bitcoin.
How It Works
When the Global M2 money supply expands, it reflects an increase in available liquidity. This often leads to an influx of capital into higher-yielding and riskier assets like Bitcoin, equities, and commodities. Conversely, when M2 contracts, liquidity tightens, leading to declines in the values of these assets.
An essential insight is that Bitcoin's price is not immediately affected by changes in M2. Research shows a lag of approximately 56-60 days (around two months) between liquidity changes and Bitcoin's price movements. Shifting the liquidity data forward by this period improves the correlation between Global M2 and Bitcoin performance.
How to Use
Track Global M2 YoY Change: Focus on liquidity's yearly change to identify trends. Rapid increases in liquidity often signify favorable conditions for Bitcoin and other risk assets to rise, while contractions often predict price declines or consolidation phases.
Account for the Lag Effect: Incorporate the two-month lag into your analysis to predict Bitcoin's potential moves more accurately. For instance, a recent resurgence in liquidity growth could signal a Bitcoin rally within the next two months.
Use as a Macro Indicator: Monitor liquidity trends alongside other economic indicators and asset performance metrics to build a more comprehensive investment framework.
By tracking these dynamics, traders and investors can better anticipate Bitcoin's trajectory and make informed decisions. Indicator
FinFluential Global M2 Money Supply // Days Offset =The "Global M2 Money Supply" indicator calculates and visualizes the combined M2 money supply from multiple countries and regions worldwide, expressed in trillions of USD.
M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets. This indicator aggregates daily M2 data from various economies, converts them into a common USD base using forex exchange rates, and plots the total as a single line on the chart.
It is designed as an overlay indicator aligned to the right scale, making it ideal for comparing global money supply trends with price action or other market data.
Key Features
Customizable Time Offset: Users can adjust the number of days to shift the M2 data forward or backward (from -1000 to +1000 days) via the indicator settings. This allows for alignment with historical events or forward-looking analysis.
Global Coverage Includes:
Eurozone: Eurozone M2 (converted via EUR/USD)
North America: United States, Canada
Non-EU Europe: Switzerland, United Kingdom, Finland, Russia
Pacific: New Zealand
Asia: China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Philippines, Singapore
Latin America: Brazil, Colombia, Mexico
Middle East: United Arab Emirates, Turkey
Africa: South Africa
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Forex Macro Metrics [MacroGlide]"Forex Macro Metrics " is a powerful tool for analyzing macroeconomic metrics, designed to help traders make more informed decisions in the forex market. This indicator displays key economic indicators such as interest rates, money supply (M1 and M2), unemployment rate, and government debt for various currencies and their pairs, allowing users to assess the macroeconomic differences between the base and quote currencies.
Key Features:
• Interest Rates Display: Includes interest rates for major world currencies with the ability to show the differential between the base and quote currencies.
• Money Supply Analysis (M1 and M2): Displays the money supply for both the base and quote currencies, including differential calculations.
• Unemployment Rate: Compares the unemployment rates between currencies, showing the differences on the chart.
• Government Debt: Shows government debt levels for the base and quote currencies with differential calculations.
• Customizable Options: Enable/disable specific metrics and adjust colors for better visual clarity.
How to Use:
• Select a Currency Pair: Apply the indicator to your chart and choose the desired currency pair. The indicator will automatically load the relevant data for the base and quote currencies.
• Adjust Display Settings: Use the indicator settings to enable or disable specific metrics and their differentials.
• Analyze the Data: Compare the economic conditions of the two currencies through the charts and identify potential trading opportunities based on macroeconomic differences.
Methodology:
The indicator uses economic data available through PulseWire tickers to calculate the values of the base and quote currencies. Differentials are calculated by subtracting the values of the quote currency from the base currency, allowing for a visual assessment of their differences. The displayed data includes historical changes, helping to identify trends and potential reversal points.
Originality and Usefulness:
"Forex Macro Metrics " is a unique tool that combines several key macroeconomic indicators into one comprehensive indicator. This simplifies the analysis process for traders looking to understand the fundamental differences between currencies. Using this approach provides an advantage in assessing long-term trends and potential shifts in currency pairs driven by changes in macroeconomic conditions.
Charts:
The indicator displays data in the form of lines and areas on the chart, with interest rates shown as lines for the base and quote currencies, accompanied by an area representing the differential. For money supply (M1 and M2), lines are drawn for each currency, with areas highlighting the differences. Similarly, the unemployment rate and government debt are displayed with clear visual separation of the data and their differentials, making it easy to compare and analyze the macroeconomic conditions of the currencies involved.
Enjoy the game! Indicator
Money Flow DivergenceThe Money Flow Divergence indicator is designed to help traders identify periods when there is a significant divergence between the growth of the U.S. M2 money supply and the S&P 500 index (SPX).
This divergence can provide insights into potential market turning points, making it a valuable tool for long-term investors and traders looking to capitalize on macroeconomic trends.
How It Works:
Data Sources:
S&P 500 Index (SPX) and U.S. M2 Money Supply.
Calculating Growth Rates:
SPX Growth: The script calculates the percentage growth of the S&P 500 index by comparing the current closing price with the previous period's closing price.
M2 Growth: Similarly, it calculates the percentage growth of the U.S. M2 money supply by comparing the current value with the previous period's value.
Growth Gap/Delta:
Growth Gap: The core of the indicator is the "growth gap" or "delta," which is the difference between the M2 money supply growth and the SPX growth. This gap indicates whether liquidity in the economy (represented by M2) is outpacing or lagging behind the performance of the stock market.
Interpretation:
Positive Gap (Green Bars): When the M2 growth outpaces SPX growth, the gap is positive, indicating that there is more liquidity in the system than what is being reflected in the stock market. This scenario often signals potential upward momentum in the market, making it a good time to consider buying.
Negative Gap (Red Bars): When the SPX growth outpaces M2 growth, the gap is negative, suggesting that the market may be overextended relative to the available liquidity. This can be a warning sign of potential market corrections or downturns.
Visualization:
The indicator plots the growth gap as a histogram with bars colored based on the gap value:
Green Bars: Indicate a positive gap where M2 growth is higher than SPX growth.
Red Bars: Indicate a negative gap where SPX growth is higher than M2 growth.
The bars are thickened for better visibility, and a horizontal line at zero is plotted to help users easily distinguish between positive and negative gaps.
How To Use It:
Time Frame Selection: Users can select the desired time frame (e.g., monthly, weekly) for the data. This flexibility allows traders to analyze the indicator over different periods, depending on their investment horizon.
Monthly time frames seem to work best.
Interpreting the Indicator:
Bullish Signals: Look for sustained periods of positive growth gaps (green bars), which may indicate a favorable environment for buying or holding long positions.
Bearish Signals: Be cautious during periods of negative growth gaps (red bars), which could signal overvaluation in the market or potential pullbacks.
Enjoy and let me know if you have any questions. Indicator
M2 Global Liquidity Index
The M2 Global Liquidity Index calculates a composite index reflecting the aggregate liquidity provided by the M2 money supply of five major currencies: Chinese Yuan (CNY), US Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), and British Pound (GBP). The M2 money supply includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. By incorporating exchange rates (CNY/USD, EUR/USD, JPY/USD, GBP/USD), the script adjusts each country's M2 supply to a common base (USD) and sums them up to produce a global liquidity metric. This metric, plotted on a daily timeframe, provides an overview of the total liquidity available in these five significant economies.
Understanding the M2 money supply is crucial for assessing liquidity because it represents the amount of money readily available in an economy for spending and investment. Higher M2 levels generally indicate more liquidity, suggesting easier access to capital for businesses and consumers, potentially leading to economic growth. Conversely, lower M2 levels can signify tighter liquidity conditions, possibly resulting in constrained spending and investment. Indicator
Central Banks Balance Sheets ROI% ChangeIntroducing the "Central Banks Balance Sheets ROI% Change" indicator, a tool designed to offer traders and analysts an understanding of global liquidity dynamics.
This indicator tracks the Return on Investment (ROI) percentage changes across major central banks' balance sheets, providing insights into shifts in global economic liquidity not tied to cumulative figures but through ROI calculations, capturing the pulse of overall economic dynamics.
Key Enhancements:
ROI Period Customization: Users can now adjust the ROI calculation period, offering flexibility to analyze short-term fluctuations or longer-term trends in central bank activities, aligning with their strategic time horizons.
Chart Offset Feature: This new functionality allows traders to shift the chart view, aiding in the alignment of data visualization with other indicators or specific analysis needs, enhancing interpretive clarity.
Central Bank Selection: With options to include or exclude data from specific central banks among the world's top 15 economies (with the exception of Mexico and the consolidation of the EU's central bank data), traders can tailor the analysis to their regional focus or diversification strategies.
US M2 Option: Recognizing the significance of the M2 money supply as a liquidity metric, this indicator offers an alternative view focusing solely on the US M2, allowing for a concentrated analysis of the US liquidity environment.
Comprehensive Coverage: The tool covers a wide array of central banks, including the Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, European Central Bank, and more, ensuring a broad and inclusive perspective on global liquidity.
Visualization Enhancements: A histogram plot vividly distinguishes between positive and negative ROI changes, offering an intuitive grasp of liquidity expansions or contractions at a glance.
This indicator is a strategic tool designed for traders who seek to understand the undercurrents of market liquidity and its implications on global markets.
Whether you're assessing the impact of central bank policies, gauging economic health, or identifying investment opportunities, the "Central Banks Balance Sheets ROI% Change" indicator offers a critical lens through which to view the complex interplay of global liquidity factors.
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