CE - 42MACRO Equity Factor Table This is Part 1 of 2 from the 42MACRO Recreation Series
The CE - 42MACRO Equity Factor Table is a whole toolbox packaged in a single indicator.
It aims to provide a probabilistic insight into the market realized GRID Macro Regime, use a multiplex of important Assets and Indices to form a high probability Implied Correlation expectation and allows to derive extra market insights by showing the most important aggregates and their performance over multiple timeframes... and what that might mean for the whole market direction, as well as the underlying asset.
WARNING
By the nature of the macro regimes, the outcomes are more accurate over longer Chart Timeframes (Week to Months).
However, it is also a valuable tool to form a proper,
market realized, short to medium term bias.
NOTE
This Indicator is intended to be used alongside the 2nd part "CE - 42MACRO Yield and Macro"
for a more wholistic approach and higher accuracy.
Due to coding limitations they can not be merged into one Indicator.
Methodology:
The Equity Factor Table tracks specifically chosen Assets to identify their performance and add the combined performances together to visualize 42MACRO's GRID Equity Model.
For this it uses the below Assets, with more to come:
Dividend Compounders ( AMEX:SPHD )
Mid Caps ( AMEX:VO )
Emerging Markets ( AMEX:EEM )
Small Caps ( AMEX:IWM )
Mega Cap Growth ( NASDAQ:QQQ )
Brazil ( AMEX:EWZ )
United Kingdom ( AMEX:EWU )
Growth ( AMEX:IWF )
United States ( AMEX:SPY )
Japan ( AMEX:DXJ )
Momentum ( AMEX:MTUM )
China ( AMEX:FXI )
Low Beta ( AMEX:SPLV )
International ex-US ( NASDAQ:ACWX )
India ( AMEX:INDA )
Eurozone ( AMEX:EZU )
Quality ( AMEX:QUAL )
Size ( AMEX:OEF )
Functionalities:
1. Correlations
Takes a measure of Cross Market Correlations
2. Implied Trend
Calculates the trend for each Asset and uses the Correlation to obtain the Implied Trend for the underlying Asset
There are multiple functionalities to enhance Signal Speed and precision...
Reading a signal only over a certain threshold, otherwise being colored in gray to signal noise or unclear market behavior
Normalization of Signal
Double Normalization of Signal for more Speed... ideal for the Crypto Market
Using an additional Hull Moving Average to enhance Signal Speed
Additional simple Background coloring to get a Signal from the HMA
Barcoloring based on the Implied Correlation
3. Equity Factor Table
Shows market realized Asset performance
Provides the approximate realized GRID market regimes
Informs about "Risk ON" and "Risk OFF" market states
Now into the juicy stuff...
Visuals:
There is a variety of options to change visual settings of what is plotted and where
+ additional considerations.
Everything that is relevant in the underlying logic which can improve comprehension can be visualized with these options.
More to come
Market Correlation:
The Market Correlation Table takes the Correlation of all the Assets to the Asset on the Chart,
it furthermore uses the Normalized KAMA Oscillator by IkkeOmar to analyse the current trend of every single Asset.
(To enhance the Signal you can apply the mentioned Indicator on the relevant Assets to find your target Asset movements that you intend to capture...
and then change the length of the Indicator in here)
It then Implies a Correlation based on the Trend and the Correlation to give a probabilistically adjusted expectation for the future Chart Asset Movement.
This is strengthened by taking the average of all Implied Trends.
Thus the Correlation Table provides valuable insights about probabilistically likely Movement of the Asset over the defined time duration,
providing alpha for Traders and Investors alike.
Equity Factors:
The table provides valuable information about the current market environment (whether it's risk on or risk off),
the rough GRID models from 42MACRO and the actual market performance.
This allows you to obtain a deeper understanding of how the market works and makes it simple to identify the actual market direction,
makes it possible to derive overall market Health and shows market strength or weakness.
Utility:
The Equity Factor Table is divided in 4 Sections which are the GRID regimes:
Economic Growth:
Goldilocks
Reflation
Economic Contraction:
Inflation
Deflation
Top 5 Equity Factors:
Are the values green for a specific Column?
If so then the market reflects the corresponding GRID behavior.
Bottom 5 Equity Factors:
Are the values red for a specific Column?
If so then the market reflects the corresponding GRID behavior.
So if we have Goldilocks as current regime we would see green values in the Top 5 Goldilocks Cells and red values in the Bottom 5 Goldilocks Cells.
You will find that Reflation will look similar, as it is also a sign of Economic Growth.
Same is the case for the two Contraction regimes.
This whole Indicator, as well as the second part, is based to a majority on 42MACRO's models.
I only brought them into TV and added things on top of it.
If you have questions or need a more in-depth guide DM me.
Will make a guide to all functionalities if necessity becomes apparent.
GM Indicator
Indicator
Rule Of 20 - Fair Value Estimation by Inflation & Earnings (TG)The Rule Of 20 is a heuristic calculation to find the fair value of an asset or market given its earnings and current inflation.
Its calculation is straightforward: the fair multiple of the price or price-to-earnings ratio of a stock should be 20 minus the rate of inflation.
In math terms: fair_price-to-earnings_ratio = (20 - inflation) ; fair_value = current_price * fair_price-to-earnings_ratio / real_price-to-earnings_ratio
For example, if a stock or index was trading on 11 times earnings and inflation was 2%, then the theory would be that the fair price-to-earnings ratio would be 20-2 = 18, which is much higher than the real price-to-earnings ratio of 11, and hence the asset would be undervalued.
Conversely, a market or company that was trading on 18 times price-to-earnings ration when inflation was 8% was seen as overvalued, because of the fair price-to-earnings ratio being 20-8=12, hence much lower than the real price-to-earnings ratio of 18.
We can then project the delta between the fair PE and real PE onto the asset's value to obtain the projected fair value, which may be a target of future value the asset may reach or hover around.
For example, as of 1st November 2022, SPX stood at 3871.97, with a PE ratio of 20.14 and an inflation in the US of 7.70. Using the Rule Of 20, we find that the fair PE ratio is 20-7.7=12.3, which is much lower than the current PE ratio of 20.14 by 39%! This may indicate a future possibility of a further downside risk by 39% from current valuation levels.
The origins of this rule are unknown, although the legendary US fund manager Peter Lynch is said to have been an active proponent when he was directing the Fidelity’s Magellan fund from 1977 to 1990.
For more infos about the Rule Of 20, reading this article is recommended: www.sharesmagazine.co.uk
This indicator implements the Rule Of 20 on any asset where the Financials are availble to PulseWire, and also for the entire SP:SPX index as a way to assess the wider US stock market. Technically, the calculation is a bit different for the latter, as we cannot access earnings of SPX through Financials on PulseWire, so we access it using the QUANDL:MULTPL/SP500_PE_RATIO_MONTH ticker instead.
By default are displayed:
current asset value in red
fair asset value according to the Rule Of 20 in white for SPX, or different shades of purple/maroon for other assets. Note that for SPX there is only one calculation, whereas for other assets there are multiple different ways to calculate earnings, so different fair values can be computed.
fair price-to-earnings ratio (PE ratio) in light grey.
real price-to-earnings ratio in darker grey.
This indicator can be used on SP:SPX ticker, and on most NASDAQ:* tickers, since they have Financials integrated in PulseWire. Stocks tickers from other exchanges may not provide Financials data, so this indicator won't work then. If this happens, try to find the same ticker on NASDAQ instead.
Note that by default, only the US stock market is considered. If you want to consider stocks or assets in other regions of the world, please change the inflation ticker to a ticker that reflect the target region's inflation.
Also adding a table to ease interpretation was considered, but then the Timeframe MTF parameter would not work, and since the big advantage of this indicator is to allow for historical comparisons, the table was dropped.
Enjoy, and keep in mind that all models are wrong, but some are useful.
Trade safely!
TG Indicator
Strategy
Annualizer: New Indicator + CPI AnalysisThis indicator calculates the annualized month-over-month percent change of a cumulative index and plots it alongside the year-over-year percent change for comparison. It was developed for the purpose of analyzing the inflation rate of CPI indexes such as “CPIAUCSL.” It can also be used on M2 money supply and pretty much any cumulative index. It will not produce useful outputs on percent change indexes such as “USCCPI” because it performs percent change calculations which are already applied to those indexes.
This indicator takes data from the monthly chart, regardless of how often the data is reported or what the timeframe of the current chart is. Doing so allows it to work on all timeframes while displaying only monthly data outputs but limits it from recognizing data which might be released more often than once per month. This limitation should be suitable for macroeconomic data such as CPI and M2 money supply which are usually analyzed on a month-to-month basis.
If the ticker symbol is "M2SL" which is M2 money supply, annualized percent change is plotted in green, otherwise, it’s plotted in blue.
CPI analysis:
Upon deploying this indicator, it was observed that the year-over-year (YoY) inflation rate (red) is a lagging indicator of the annualized month-over-month (MoM) inflation rate (blue) and that it appears to almost be a moving average of it. A moving average plot was temporarily added for comparison to the YoY and it was found that the difference between the two plots is negligible and that for the purposes of high-level analysis of inflation, the two plots can be considered to be no different from one another. Below is a screenshot for demonstration. Notice how closely the white 12-month SMA of the annualized rate tracks the YoY rate.
For other indexes which may see more dramatic changes month-over-month such as M2 money supply, the difference between the two signals becomes more pronounced but they are still comparable. The conclusion is that the YoY inflation rate can be considered to be a 12-month simple moving average of the annualized MoM rate.
12-month SMA:
It’s easy to see and stands to reason that if the annualized MoM inflation rate (blue) remains where it has been for the previous 2 months YoY inflation (red) will begin falling and eventually reach similar levels due to its moving-average-like behavior. This will bring us back to the 2% YoY inflation target of the Fed within no more than 10 months. There may be a perception that deflation is required to bring prices back down to the purple channel of CPI to make prices pre-Covid "normal" again. We were headed in that direction in July with a slightly negative MoM CPI read. What may have freaked investors out about the August report (most recent as of this writing) is that the inflation rate, rather than continuing into negative deflationary territory, has bounced back into positive territory.
M2 money supply isn’t an integral part of this analysis, but it helps demonstrate the indicator. It can be observed that CPI growth lags M2 money supply growth which seems to have leveled off.
I’m not a macroeconomist so I’m probably missing some things, but I do not see a lagging indicator such as YoY inflation being at 8.25% while annualized MoM inflation is at 1.42% as something to freak out about as investors have seemingly done. I’m a stock market bear as of last week, but I do not feel this CPI analysis strongly supports a bearish thesis, nor is it bullish. Next month’s annualized MoM % change may begin to sway me one way or the other depending on what this chart looks like when it’s updated. Indicator
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EFTENG: Inflation Price Forecast indicator
With this indicator, when you add monthly and annual positive inflation rates, the price of the parity is estimated according to inflation. You can enter inflation rates as either positive or negative. You can write positive inflation rates as they are, but when writing negative inflation rates, the rate must be preceded by a negative phrase. A (-) sign should be placed in front of the negative inflation rate. Their codes are open and anyone can develop these codes. In the use of indicators, it is useful to look at the monthly chart because inflation rates are given on a monthly basis. As a result of these data, you can see the most accurate results on the monthly chart. The green line shows the positive inflation, the red line the negative inflation, and the gray line shows the annual positive and negative inflation. You can arrange the colors and line formats according to your desire.
TR: Enflasyon Fiyat Tahmini indikatörü
Bu indikatör ile aylık, yıllık pozitif enflasyon oranları eklediğinizde paritenin fiyatını enflasyona göre fiyat tahminde bulunmaktadır. Enflasyon oranlarını isterseniz pozitif isterseniz negatif olarak giriş yapabilirsiniz. Pozitif enflasyon oranlarını olduğu gibi yazabilirsiniz ancak negatif enflasyon oranını yazarken oranın başında negatif ibaresi bulunmalıdır. Negatif enflasyon girişini oranın önüne (-) işareti konulmalıdır. Kodları açık ve herkes bu kodları geliştirebilir. İndikatör kullanımında ise Aylık grafikte bakmanızda fayda var çünkü enflasyon oranları aylık bazda verilmektedir. Bu veriler neticesinde en doğru sonuçları aylık grafikte görebilirisiniz. Yeşil çizgi pozitif enflasyonu kırmızı çizgi negatif enflasyonu gri çizgi yıllık pozitif ve negatif enflasyonu göstermektedir. Renkleri, çizgi biçimleri isteğinize göre düzenleyebilirsiniz. Indicator
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Many Inflation RateThis is a assortment of countries' inflation rates, sourced by Quandl. The countries are represented by their ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 codes in the options, and at the moment include:
ARG, AUS, CAN, CHE, DEU, EUR, FRA, GBR, ITA, JPN, NZL, RUS, USA
Included is a correlation to the current chart and the selected inflation rate. The correlation compares the monthly moving averages of YOY inflation and the chart closes over a period of two years. At the moment this doesn't seem to be the most efficient method of correlation/comparison, should there be one to begin with.
More information:
www.ons.gov.uk
www.bls.gov
voxeu.org
en.wikipedia.org
See here for a different version:
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