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Overnight Gap AnalysisThere is a wide range of opinion on holding positions overnight due to gap risk. So, out of curiosity, I coded this analysis as a strategy to see what the result of only holding a position overnight on an asset would be. The results really surprised me. The script backtests 10+ years, and here are the findings:
Holding a position for 1 hour bar overnight on QQQ since January 2010 results in a 545% return. QQQ's entire return holding through the same period is 643%
The max equity drawdown on holding that position overnight is lower then the buy/hold drawdown on the underlying asset.
It doesn't matter if the last bar of the day is green or red, the results are similar.
It doesn't matter if it is a bull or bear market. Filtering the script to only trade when the price is above the 200-day moving average actually reduces its return from 545% to 301%, though it does also reduce drawdown.
I see similar patterns when applying the script to other index ETFs. Applying it to leveraged index ETFs can end up beating buy/hold of the underlying index.
Since this script holds through the 1st bar of the day, this could also speak to a day-opening price pattern
The default inputs are for the script to be applied to 1 hour charts only that have 7 bars on the chart per day. You can apply it to other chart types, but must follow the instructions below for it to work properly.
What the script is doing :
This script is buying the close of the last bar of the day and closing the trade at the close of the next bar. So, all trades are being held for 1 bar. By default, the script is setup for use on a 1hr chart that has 7 bars per day. If you try to apply it to a different timeframe, you will need to adjust the count of the last bar of the day with the script input. I.e. There are 7 bars per day on an hour chart on US Stocks/ETFs, so the input is set to 7 by default.
Other ways this script can be used :
This script can also test the result of holding a position over any 1 bar in the day using that same input. For instance, on an hour chart you can input 6 on the script input, and it will model buying the close of the 6th bar of the day while selling on the close of the next bar. I used this out of curiosity to model what only holding the last bar of the day would result in. On average, you lose money on the last bar every day.
The irony here is that the root cause of this last bar of the day losing may be people selling their positions at the end of day so that they aren't exposed to overnight gap risk.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas that can be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
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Daily GAP StatsI did not write the script from scratch but rather started editing code of an existing one. The original code came from a script called GAP DETECTOR by @Asch-
First up: I am a trader, not a programmer and therefore my code most likely is inefficient. If someone with more expertise would like to help and optimize it - feel free to get in touch, I am always happy to learn some new tricks. :)
This script does 2 things:
- It shows daily gaps stats based on user inputs
- It shows color coded labels on gap days with additional information in tooltips ( important: make sure to read 'known issues/limitations' at the end )
User Inputs
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Although the input dialog is pretty straight forward, I do a quick rundown:
- Length: max lookback time
- Gap Direction: self explanatory
- Show All Gaps | Cont Only | Reversal Only | Off:
This refers to the way labels are displayed on gap days (again: make sure to read known issues/limitations!)
- Show All Gaps: does what it says
- Cont Only: only shows gaps where price continued in the gap direction. If you filter for gap ups and chose 'Cont only' you will only see labels on gap days where price closed above the open (and vice versa if you scan for gap downs).
- Reversal Only: you will only see labels for closes below the open on gap up days (and the opposite on gap down days)
- Off: self explanatory
- Gap Measure in ATR/PCT: self explanatory, ATR is calculated over a 10d period
- Gap Size (Abs Values): no negative values allowed here. If you filter for gap downs and enter 3 it means it will show gaps where the stock fell more than 3 ATR/PCT on the open.
- RVOL Factor: along with significant gaps should come significant volume. RVOL = volume of the gap day / 20d average volume
- Viewing Options: Placing the stats label in the window is a bit tricky (see knonw issues/limitations) and I was not sure which way I liked better. See for yourself what works best for you.
Known Isusses/Limitations:
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- Positioning of the stats table:
As to my knowledge, Tradingview only allows label positioning relative to price and not relative to the chart window. I tried to always display the gap stats table in the upper right corner, using 52wk high as y-coordinate. This works ok most of the time, but is not pretty. If anybody has some fancy way to tag the label in a fixed position, please get in touch.
- Max number of labels per script:
PulseWire has a limitation that allows a maxium of ~50 labels per script. If there are more labels, PulseWire will automatically cut the oldest ones, without any notification. I have found this behaviour to be rather inconsistent - sometimes it'll dump labels even if there are a lot fewer than 50. Hopefully PulseWire will drop this limitation at one point in the future.
Important: The inconsistent display of the gap day labels has NO INFLUENCE on the calculations in the gap stats table - the count and the calculations are complete and correct! Indicator
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