Fed

SPX Fair Value Bands WSHOSHO This is a variation of the SPX Fair Value Bands indicator which uses WSHOSHO instead of WALCL. WSHOSHO only includes the 'Securities Held Outright' portion of the Fed balance sheet. This effectively eliminates the portions related to BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program).

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USD Liquidity Index This USD Liquidity Index composed of 2 parts, total assets and major liabilities of the Federal Reserve . There is a certain positive correlation between USD liquidity and risk asset price changes in history. Suggested that USD Liquidity is mostly determined by the Federal Reserve balance (without leveraged), this index deducts three major liabilities from the total assets (in green color line) of the Federal Reserve . They are the currency in circulation (WCURCIR) in gold color, the Treasury General Account (WTREGEN) in blue color, the Reverse Repo (RRPONTSYD) in red color. The grey line is the calculation result of the USD Liquidity Index. With it goes up, liquidity increases, vice versa.

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by DanielGrey0x

[WRx450] FED net liquidity This indicator show the net liquidity of the FED. Net Liquidity = FED balance sheet (total asset) - Treasury General Account - Reverse Repo Net liquidity and Net liquidity changes are shown on wednesday. Total asset and TGA report are on weekly basis, thus a daily basis would be inacurate. it is possible to add this indicator twice and move one of them in another graphic below and show the change. It gives a clear view of the liquidity.

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[WRx450] FED net liquidity This indicator show the net liquidity of the FED. Net liquidity = Fed balance sheet (total asset) - Treasury General Account - Reverse Repo All sources can be select otherwise in parameter. It is possible to show only the weekly changes in Net liquidity. Net liquidity and Net liquidity changes are shown only on wednesday because Total asset and TGA reports are updated only on Wednesday. (updating the Net liquidity on a daily basis would be inacurate)

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Economic Calendar (Import from Spreadsheet)This script draws vertical lines to mark Economic Calendar Events. Datetime of events is defined by user in Settings via a standardized line of text. Motivation for coding this script: All traders should be aware of economic calendar events. At times, when you really need to pay attention to an upcoming major event, you might even decide to use the vertical-line drawing tool to mark it. However, this takes manual effort. This script provides a solution to performing mundane tasks such as drawing vertical lines and dragging them ever so slightly, just to have them approximately aligned with exact time. Parameters: (1) Source data - String representation of collection of datetime referencing to Economic Calendar Events (2) Line color, & (3) Width of line - For displaying vertical lines drawn by script. Standardized format for Source Data : Example: If 'GMT;2022,6,1,14,0,0;2022,6,2,12,15,0;' is provided to PineScript, then two vertical lines will be drawn on June 6, 2022 according to the exact time in 'YYYY,MM,DD,hh,mm,ss' format at the specified timezone (GMT in this case). Template for Source Data : Included here, link below, is a shared Google Sheet that systematically processes Economic Calendar data provided in the 'Raw Data' tab. drive.google.com Users are advised to use their preferred methods* to format the string (for source data param.), and apply their own criteria to sort down the Events. (ie. only include Events of High Impact, etc.) * Preferred methods (as mentioned above) does not mean being limited to using the template as provided in this post.

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SPX Fair Value Bands V2 An updated version of the SPX Fair Value Bands script from dharmatech and based on the net liquidity concept by MaxJAnderson . Now with full customization of parameters through the settings (Dialog Box) and allowing the options to the use of 1) Standard Bands based on Offsets of the Fair Value 2) Bollinger Bands 3) Keltner Channels to better capture buy/sell areas rather than relying on noisy unreliably (and unevenly) updated data from the Treasury/Fed. ================================== Net Liquidity's importance in the new post-COVID QE to QT regime as described MaxJAnderson ---------------- " In past cycles, size of Fed's balance sheet changed a lot, while TGA and RRP changed relatively little. So size of balance sheet roughly equated Net Liquidity. (The Treasury General Account) TGA and (Reverse Repo) RRP didn't matter. They were rounding errors by comparison. But starting in 2020, relative changes in TGA and RRP have been THREE TIMES LARGER than the change in size of the Fed's balance sheet. As result, changes in TGA and RRP have taken over as the primary drivers Net Liquidity. This is new, and changes the game significantly. Again - the size of the Fed's balance sheet doesn't matter. What matters is the portion of it that's available to circulate in the economy (Net Liquidity). And ever since 2020, the Treasury and Reverse Repo have become what controls that. Not the size of Fed's balance sheet. ---------------- The idea that follows is simple,short when $SPX reaches extreme levels of overvaluation, and close out when SPX returns to being undervalued. Here's the formulas I currently use to determine fair value: Fair Value = (Fed Bal Sheet - TGA - RRP)/1.1 - 1625 And here's the trading rules I currently follow: Short when diff of $SPX - Fair Value > 350 Close when diff of $SPX - Fair Value < 150 When one of these rules is triggered upon market close on a given day, trades are entered at open of the following day "

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by TraderLeibniz

Fed Net Liquidity Indicator v2 Updated script for jlb05013's original Fed Net Liquidity Indicator. PulseWire was bringing in the FRED data in different units than they used to. This code fixes it. This indicator aims to present a "Net Liquidity" indicator comprised of the Fed Balance sheet , less the TGA account and Overnight Reverse REPO agreements. Net Liquidity = Fed Balance Sheet - ( TGA + Reverse REPO) This is an overlay that can be added to stock or other charts (like SPY ) to see how the market may appear correlated to Net Liquidity - injection of liquidity into the markets. This was hypothesized by Max Anderson, this is just a script realizing that posting. New updates include a resolution feature, and an option to offset backwards by 2 days per original intent.

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USD Liquidity Conditions Index Swing Stock Strategy Original credits goes to @ElDoggo22 www.pulsewire.com I looked in the post created by him, of USD liquidity and I have noticed that if you are going to apply a percentile top and bottom to it, can become an interesting swing strategy for US Stocks. So in this case I decided to create a 99th percentile for top and 4th percentile for bot with a big length, preferably 100+ candles, for this example i took 150. Rules for entry : Long : either bot or top lines are ascending We exit long either the top line is descending, or we have sudden cross of the moving average with both top and bot within the same candle Short: we enter short when we have a sudden cross down of the moving average with both top and bot within the same candle We exit short when we have a cross over of the moving average with both top and bot within the same candle ( or we have a long entry condition) If there are qny questions, please let me know !

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Fed Funds Rate Projections This script makes projections via drawing boxes based upon changes in the fed funds rate (FRED:EFFR). It works by turning the change in the fed funds rate into a user defined percentage (using a multiplier, by default a 1% rate of change implies a 10% change in the chart) and then drawing a box that distance away depending on the direction of the rate of change. The size of the multiplier should depend on the duration of the asset which this is being applied to, for example, a long duration asset such as a high beta growth stock should use a larger multiplier.

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by barnabygraham

Fed Net Liquidity Indicator This indicator aims to present a "Net Liquidity" indicator comprised of the Fed Balance sheet , less the TGA account and Overnight Reverse REPO agreements. Net Liquidity = Fed Balance Sheet - ( TGA + Reverse REPO) This is an overlay that can be added to stock or other charts (like SPY ) to see how the market may appear correlated to Net Liquidity - injection of liquidity into the markets. This was hypothesized by Max Anderson, this is just a script realizing that posting. New updates include a resolution feature, and an option to offset backwards by 2 days per original intent.

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FOMC Announcements This indicator plots vertical lines at the scheduled times of US Federal Reserve's FOMC Meeting Announcements. Usually, that time or the 24 hours before and after could see big moves in markets. You can change those dates and times in the settings, and could use the indicator option "Add this indicator to entire layout" if you want to easily reflect that across all panes of a layout. Those lines will show on any symbol you switch to, saving you time and effort of drawing them manually.

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Fed and ECB Calendar by Kzi Hello traders, Here is a script that i've done for testing the timestamp and the input.time fonction. You can see verticals lines blue and yellow. The blue are the ECB meeting date (7 dates) The yellow are the FED meeting date. (10 Dates) // In the parameter you can enter the next rolling month date for ECB and FED // I don't figure out how to add label / Txt on the lines // And be carreful i don't put the real hours of the meeting.

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Taylor Rule The Taylor rule is a simple formula that John Taylor devised to guide policymakers. It calculates what the federal funds rate should be, as a function of the output gap and current inflation. Here, we measure the output gap as the difference between potential output and real GDP. Inflation is measured by changes in the CPI, and we use a target inflation rate of 2%. We also assume a steady-state real interest rate of 2%.

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by Pinnacle_Investor

Federal Funds Rate and Overnight Bank Fund Rate AMEX:SPY Comparison of the Overnight Bank Fund Rate and the Effective Federal Funds Rate. The Fed sets a discount rate of 100 basis points above the effective federal funds rate to discourage ("penalize") banks from borrowing from its reserves. If lending banks have excess in their reserves, the borrowing banks have ease in negotiating a lower rate overnight to maintain its requirements. For this reason its a good indicator of the economy. If it becomes more difficult for banks to maintain the required reserve amount they may charge borrowing banks higher rates. Both the Effective Federal Funds Rate and Overnight Bank Fund Rate use the same data. Except, the OBFR includes overnight Eurodollar transaction data and certain overnight “selected deposit” transactions that are placed at domestic bank branches controlled by a U.S. banking office. The indicator includes the lower and upper bound target rate set by the Federal Reserve. An interesting note: Notice the jump in the Overnight Bank Rate followed by Fed buying to provide liquidity and lower rates in Sept 2019.

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Gov Bonds Real Rates 10/05Y, FED RATEs, CPI Gov Bonds Real Rates 10/05Y, FED RATEs, CPI。美国经济数据10年债和5年债实际收益率，美国目标利率和实际利率，CPI消费者物价指数

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FED System Open Market Operations FED System Open Market Operations，美联储公开持仓操作

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US Inflation Rate [nb]This is the United States inflation rate, based on the total Consumer Price Index published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Option to toggle: A line to display the inflation rate in December. It does not change until the next December. What the color change to red is indicative of: According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding inflation rate, "2% is a bae number to be around". This does not imply a strict 2% inflation for success and allows room for federal rate cuts should they be needed. Although FOMC declared 2% to be "bae" in 2012, James Bullard, of federal banking fame, claims that started to become the norm in 1995. Therefore the inflation rate line will only turn red 1995 onwards, and serves as a friendly reminder that inflation has been over at or over 2% for more than one month. Sources: www.bls.gov www.federalreserve.gov www.stlouisfed.org

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Macroeconomic Artificial Neural Networks This script was created by training 20 selected macroeconomic data to construct artificial neural networks on the S&P 500 index. No technical analysis data were used. The average error rate is 0.01. In this respect, there is a strong relationship between the index and macroeconomic data. Although it affects the whole world,I personally recommend using it under the following conditions: S&P 500 and related ETFs in 1W time-frame (TF = 1W SPX500USD, SP1!, SPY, SPX etc. ) Macroeconomic Parameters Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) Initial Claims (ICSA) Civilian Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 10 Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS10) Gross Domestic Product , 1 Decimal (GDP) Trade Weighted US Dollar Index : Major Currencies (DTWEXM) Consumer Price Index For All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL) M1 Money Stock (M1) M2 Money Stock (M2) 2 - Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS2) 30 Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS30) Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (FRED : DGS5) Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks (ALTSALES) Civilian Employment Population Ratio (EMRATIO) Capacity Utilization (TOTAL INDUSTRY) (TCU) Average (Mean) Duration Of Unemployment (UEMPMEAN) Manufacturing Employment Index (MAN_EMPL) Manufacturers' New Orders (NEWORDER) ISM Manufacturing Index (MAN : PMI) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Training Details : Learning cycles: 16231 AutoSave cycles: 100 Grid Input columns: 19 Output columns: 1 Excluded columns: 0 Training example rows: 998 Validating example rows: 0 Querying example rows: 0 Excluded example rows: 0 Duplicated example rows: 0 Network Input nodes connected: 19 Hidden layer 1 nodes: 2 Hidden layer 2 nodes: 0 Hidden layer 3 nodes: 0 Output nodes: 1 Controls Learning rate: 0.1000 Momentum: 0.8000 (Optimized) Target error: 0.0100 Training error: 0.010000 NOTE : Alerts added . The red histogram represents the bear market and the green histogram represents the bull market. Bars subject to region changes are shown as background colors. (Teal = Bull , Maroon = Bear Market ) I hope it will be useful in your studies and analysis, regards.

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[STRATEGY] Follow the Janet Yellen In the era of central bank's helicopter money, the market will always be skyrocketing up and up given enough time. What's the strategy to profit from indices? Only short the market when its in a state of euphoria /irrational exuberance bubble, or sell when it is confirmed (20% drawdown). Otherwise, you really have no reason not to long at every chance. Conclusion: Follow the printing press like a sheep.

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