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Fair Value Gap (FVG) UnderlayBy analyzing the size and characteristics of candlestick patterns, the Fair Value Gap indicator helps traders spot potential opportunities where the price of a currency or financial asset deviates from its fair value. The FVG is represented as a percentage and displayed as columns in an underlay on the chart.
Calculation and Interpretation:
The calculation of the FVG involves evaluating the body-to-wick ratio of a candlestick. This ratio compares the size of the body (the difference between the open and close prices) to the length of the wicks (the high and low prices). A high body-to-wick ratio indicates a significant price move within the candlestick, potentially signaling a strong market sentiment. The FVG indicator compares the size of the current candlestick with the previous candlesticks over a specified lookback period, typically the last 20 to 40 candlesticks. If the current candlestick meets the criteria for a fair value gap, it is classified as either a Bearish FVG or Bullish FVG, depending on the direction of the price movement.
Interpreting the FVG is relatively straightforward. When a Bearish FVG is detected, it suggests that the price is currently lower than its fair value, indicating a potential upward price movement in the future. This could be an opportunity to consider long positions or buying opportunities. On the other hand, when a Bullish FVG is identified, it implies that the price is higher than its fair value, signaling a possible downward price correction. Traders may consider short-selling or taking profits on long positions in such scenarios.
Coloration:
The coloration of the Fair Value Gap (FVG) indicator plays a crucial role in enhancing its visual representation and aiding interpretation. When a Bearish FVG is identified, the indicator utilizes the color scheme of lime green. This color signifies the potential for an upward price movement as the current price is considered lower than its fair value. On the other hand, a Bullish FVG is represented by the vibrant color of fuchsia, indicating a potential downward price correction as the price exceeds its fair value. The coloration serves as a visual cue, making it easier for traders to quickly identify and differentiate between different types of fair value gaps on the chart. Additionally, the barcolor is aligned with the respective FVG color, providing a comprehensive view of price inefficiencies and aiding traders in their decision-making process.
Potential Applications/Strategies:
The FVG indicator can be applied in various trading strategies and situations. One possible application is in price reversion strategies. Traders can use the FVG to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the market. When a Bullish FVG occurs, it may indicate an opportunity to consider short-selling or taking profits on long positions. Similarly, a Bearish FVG can suggest a potential buying opportunity, expecting the price to revert back to its fair value.
Another application is in confirming existing trends. The FVG can act as a confirmation tool for trends identified by other indicators or analysis techniques. When a Bullish FVG aligns with an uptrend, it may strengthen the bullish bias and provide more confidence in the upward momentum. Conversely, a Bearish FVG in conjunction with a downtrend may reinforce the bearish sentiment and support the idea of further downside potential.
Parameters:
Adjusting the parameters of the FVG indicator can be beneficial based on the trader's trading style and time frame. The body-to-wick ratio threshold and lookback period can be modified to capture different types of fair value gaps and adapt to different market conditions. Shorter lookback periods may help identify more recent FVGs, which could be suitable for short-term traders, while longer periods may capture larger price inefficiencies and cater to longer-term traders.
Limitations:
However, it's important to note that the FVG indicator, like any technical analysis tool, has its limitations. It relies on historical price patterns and may not always accurately predict future price movements. The interpretation of FVGs requires careful analysis and should be used in conjunction with other indicators, technical analysis tools, and fundamental factors to make well-informed trading decisions. Traders should also exercise proper risk management and consider the overall market context when using the FVG indicator.
In conclusion, the Fair Value Gap (FVG) indicator provides traders with valuable insights into price inefficiencies and deviations from fair value. By identifying Bearish and Bullish FVGs, traders can potentially uncover trading opportunities and make more informed decisions. However, it is crucial to combine the FVG indicator with other analysis tools, conduct thorough analysis, and exercise proper risk management to achieve consistent trading success. Indicator
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Fair value bands / Flowly Indicators— Overview
Fair value bands, like other band tools, depict dynamic points in price where price behaviour is normal or abnormal, i.e. trading at/around mean (price at fair value) or deviating from mean (price outside fair value). Unlike constantly readjusting standard deviation based bands, fair value bands are designed to be smooth and constant, based on typical historical deviations. The script calculates pivots that take place above/below fair value basis and forms median deviation bands based on this information. These points are then multiplied up to 3, representing more extreme deviations.
By default, the script uses OHLC4 and SMA 20 as basis for the bands. Users can form their preferred fair value basis using following options:
Price source
- Standard OHLC values
- HL2 (High + low / 2)
- OHLC4 (Open + high + low + close / 4)
- HLC3 (High + low + close / 3)
- HLCC4 (High + low + close + close / 4)
Smoothing
- SMA
- EMA
- HMA
- RMA
- WMA
- VWMA
- Median
Once fair value basis is established, some additional customization options can be employed:
Trend mode
Direction based
Cross based
Trend modes affect fair value basis color that indicates trend direction. Direction based trend considers only the direction of the defined fair value basis, i.e. pointing up is considered an uptrend, vice versa for downtrend. Cross based trends activate when selected source (same options as price source) crosses fair value basis. These sources can be set individually for uptrend/downtrend cross conditions. By default, the script uses cross based trend mode with low and high as sources.
Cross based (downtrend not triggered) vs. direction based (downtrend triggered):
Threshold band
Threshold band is calculated using typical deviations when price is trading at fair value basis. In other words, a little bit of "wiggle room" is added around the mean based on expected deviation. This feature is useful for cross based trends, as it allows filtering insignificant crosses that are more likely just noise. By default, threshold band is calculated based on 1x median deviation from mean. Users can increase/decrease threshold band width via input menu for more/less noise filtering, e.g. 2x threshold band width would require price to cross wiggle room that is 2x wider than typical, 0x erases threshold band altogether.
Deviation bands
Width of deviation bands by default is based on 1x median deviations and can be increased/decreased in a similar manner to threshold bands.
Each combination of customization options produces varying behaviour in the bands. To measure the behaviour and finding fairest representation of fair and unfair value, some data is gathered.
— Fair value metrics
Space between each band is considered a lot, named +3, +2, +1, -1, -2, -3. For each lot, time spent and volume relative to volume moving average (SMA 20) is recorded each time price is trading in a given lot:
Depending on the asset, timeframe and chosen fair value basis, shape of the distributions vary. However, practically always time is distributed in a normal bell curve shape, being highest at lots +1 to -1, gradually decreasing the further price is from the mean. This is hardly surprising, but it allows accurately determining dynamic areas of normal and abnormal price behaviour (i.e. low risk area between +1 and -1, high risk area between +-2 to +-3). Volume on the other hand is typically distributed the other way around, being lowest at lots +1 to -1 and highest at +-2 to +-3. When time and volume are distributed like so, we can conclude that 1) price being outside fair value is a rare event and 2) the more price is outside fair value, the more anomaly behaviour in volume we tend to find.
Viewing metric calculations
Metric calculation highlights can be enabled from the input menu, resulting in a lot based coloring and visibility of each lot counter (time, cumulative relative volume and average relative volume) in data window:
— Alerts
Available alerts are the following:
Individual
- High crossing deviation band (bands +1 to +3 )
- Low crossing deviation band (bands -1 to -3 )
- Low at threshold band in an uptrend
- High at threshold band in a downtrend
- New uptrend
- New downtrend
Grouped
- New uptrend or downtrend
- Deviation band cross (+1 or -1)
- Deviation band cross (+2 or -2)
- Deviation band cross (+3 or -3)
— Practical guide
Example #1 : Risk on/risk off trend following
Ideal trend stays inside fair value and provides sufficient cool offs between the moves. When this is the case, fair value bands can be used for sensible entry/exit levels within the trend.
Example #2 : Mean reversions
When price shows exuberance into an extreme deviation, followed by a stall and signs of exhaustion (wicks), an opportunity for mean reversion emerges. The higher the deviation, the more volatility in the move, the more signalling of exhaustion, the better.
Example #3 : Tweaking bands for desired behaviour
The faster the length of fair value basis, the more momentum price needs to hit extreme deviation levels, as bands too are moving faster alongside price. Decreasing fair value basis length typically leads to more quick and aggressive deviations and less steady trends outside fair value.
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Silen's Financials Fair ValueIt is finally here! 🔥 My 3rd and most important script in my Financial series! 🚀
Ever imagined to see all fundamentals (or many that is) combined into one indicator that is right on your chart, showing you how your favorite stock is trading compared to its fundamentals?
Well, here is your answer! 📡
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This script shows you my own personal interpretation of fair value, based solely on the financial fundamentals of a company compared to market averages.
I don't believe that certain sectors of the market should be priced higher than others. If you look at historical data you'll see that favored sectors always rotate - placing insanely high P/E multiples on some sectors. Once they are "out" and people rotate away from those sectors you're left with nothing but the naked fundamentals that matter. So, you'll see many companies, that have been doing well on paper, see their share price decline by 70-90% for no other reasons than people favoring other sectors.
That's why it's even more important to focus on fair value that is solely fundamentals-based. Know when your stock gets to expensive. 🤯
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To give you some examples:
- Most Megacaps trade at historically high valuations, several times my fair value. Those include AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, JPM, TSM, V and so on. And no, in the past they partially traded below (my) fair value.
- Most Cybersecurity / Cloud companies are trading at truly massive multiples of my fair value. (NET, DDOG, etc)
- Many Smallcaps & Midcaps are trading several multiples (OESX, CODX, QFIN) below my fair value. And no, in the past they partially traded above (my) fair value.
Ok, so much about the market. You ultimately decide how much you want to orientate on fair value. 👨🏫
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This fair value indicator (purple line):
Takes the P/E rate of the company and compares it to the market (50% weight)
Takes the P/S rate of the company and compares it to the market (50% weight)
Then adds boni and mali f or debt/equity rates and debt and equity itself
Also looks at past growth and calculates future P/E and P/S rates which adds , in some cases, value to the fair value (green line)
Also compares how historical valuations have behaved compared to fair value and simulates a fair value guideline (dark blue line)
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This script is part 3️⃣ of a series of indicators that work well together.
Script 1️⃣ of the series is:
P/E & P/S Rates
Script 2️⃣ of the series is:
Debt & Equity
If you use all 3 scripts together it will look like this, giving you truly deep and simple information about the fundamentals of a company:
Example 1 - AMD
Example 2 - HZO
Example 3 - APPS
I hope this script makes your investing and stock picks a lot easier! 🔆💹🕗
Disclaimer: Fair value is always subjective. There are many different approaches to fair value. This one is only my personal interpretation.
Disclaimer 2: This script works only for the Day-Timeframe.
Disclaimer 3: This script uses 17,5 P/E and 3,0 P/S as market averages. The actual average keeps changing but, historically speaking, these seemed to be good numbers.
Feel free to share your thoughts and feedback! 🙃
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