KRT Kalman Regime Tricolor# 📊 KRT — Kalman Regime · Tricolor
**Designed and statistically validated for 🥇 GOLD and Ξ ETHEREUM.** A regime compass, not a buy signal: KRT reads the market on three layers — background regime, trend, your candle — and shows you which way the wind blows at every moment: 🟢 long · 🔴 short · 🔵 wait.
**⚡ ZERO lookahead, ZERO repaint.** Every signal appears in real time using only the information available at that moment, and whatever is printed at a bar close never changes afterwards. Many indicators look perfect because they quietly redraw the past — KRT is built for the opposite: what you see in replay is exactly what you would have seen live.
## ⚡ Quick start (30 seconds)
The colored BACKGROUND = the underlying regime.
Green 🟢 = bull regime installed → longs carry. Red 🔴 = bear regime installed → shorts carry. No color = no regime → caution.
The CURVE trails price like a stop line: below the candles in an uptrend, above them in a downtrend. Price crossing the curve = the reversal.
The curve's intensity = the strength of the authorization.
BRIGHT = trend aligned with the regime. Pale = secondary bias only. Blue = wait.
THE MARKERS — one single rule:
SOLID green or red marker (big triangle OR diamond) = GO. Blue = wait. Small = provisional.
🟢▲ / 🔴▼ BIG triangle — GO: reversal confirmed AND regime aligned.
🟢◆ / 🔴◆ Diamond — Deferred GO: the regime installs while the trend already points that way (often follows a big blue triangle). Same strength as a big colored triangle.
🔵▲ / 🔵▼ BIG blue triangle — reversal confirmed but no regime behind it → wait (a diamond will tell you if it becomes a GO).
▵▿ Small triangles (any color) — early alerts on your chart, ahead of confirmation. Provisional.
No thinking required: solid + colored = apply your strategy · blue = patience · small = not yet.
Drop it on gold or Ethereum, chart timeframe 5m–15m. Run YOUR strategy on top: KRT gives the direction, you handle entries, stops and exits.
## ⚠️ Before you use it
This is an indicator, NOT a strategy: it provides no entry or exit points.
Validated with permutation tests on gold and Ethereum. On Bitcoin the detection displays but the statistical edge is not demonstrated; on major forex pairs it is absent. Test it yourself before using it elsewhere.
The background regime changes slowly (weeks): that is by design — it filters, it does not scalp.
## 🔍 Understanding the display (going deeper)
THE THREE LAYERS
Regime (background, default 8H) — a slow Kalman trend filter with hysteresis: the background only colors once the regime is installed (default 3 days, adjustable). Locked at its own bar close: it does not flicker and does not repaint.
Trend (curve, default 1H) — the exact price level that would flip the trend filter, computed in advance: the distance between price and curve measures the strength of the trend.
Your candle (the chart) — the curve is monitored at your chart's granularity: you see the flip before the 1H close (small triangles), the close confirms it (big triangles).
HOW TO READ IT
Green background + bright green curve + GO = every layer agrees: the most favorable long context. Mirror in red for shorts.
Pale green curve = uptrend without an installed regime — weak bias.
Pale red curve = intraday "breather" (recurring windows of weakness inside an uptrend) — a short-lived bias, not an invitation to swing short.
Blue = no statistical edge. The best trade is often no trade.
After a bullish GO, price often retests the curve before continuing: aim for the retest rather than the impulse.
TIMEFRAMES & SETTINGS
Chart from 1m to 1H (5m–15m recommended).
Trend TF / Regime TF: the only settings an advanced user may change (swing trading: 4H/D).
Regime installation age (default 72h): higher = rarer, more reliable background; lower = more reactive, more false regimes.
Everything else (q values, thresholds, windows): the calibrated and validated core of the model — keep the defaults.
---
KRT is a decision-support tool based on historical data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Manage your risk. Indicator
Indicator
Bot Webhook v8.4 [ETH]Bot Webhook v8.4 - Optimized Multi-Timeframe Signal Generator
Data-driven signal generation for ETH/USD with timeframe-specific filters (30S-20m), Keltner Squeeze Detection and Volatility Regime Recognition. Optimized from 136 signals + 9406 1m candles.
Datengetriebene Signalgenerierung fuer ETH/USD mit TF-spezifischen Filtern (30S-20m), Keltner-Squeeze-Detection und Volatility-Regime-Erkennung. Optimiert aus 136 Signalen + 9406 1m-Candles.
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OVERVIEW / UEBERBLICK
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This script is the ETH/USD-specific version of Bot Webhook v8.4. It generates Long and Short signals with a confidence score and sends them as JSON alerts to a webhook endpoint. The symbol "ETHUSD" is hardcoded in the alert - ideal for use with an automated trading bot.
Dieses Script ist die ETH/USD-spezifische Version des Bot Webhook v8.4. Es generiert Long- und Short-Signale mit Confidence-Score und sendet diese als JSON-Alert an einen Webhook-Endpunkt. Das Symbol "ETHUSD" ist fest im Alert eingebettet - ideal fuer den Einsatz mit einem automatisierten Trading-Bot.
Base: v7.3 TF-specific filters (proven) + v8.0 Keltner/Regime (Squeeze SHORT only)
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SIGNAL LOGIC / SIGNAL-LOGIK
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LONG Signals (v7.3 Base):
- RSI < TF-specific threshold (Oversold)
- Stochastic K < TF-specific threshold
- RSI Slope > TF-specific threshold (Momentum reversal / Momentum-Wende)
- ADX < TF-specific threshold (no excessive counter-trend / kein ueberstarker Gegentrend)
- Proven performance: 68.2% $20-rate, R/R 1.48x
SHORT Signals (v7.3 Base + Keltner Squeeze):
- RSI > TF-specific threshold (Overbought)
- Stochastic K > TF-specific threshold
- RSI Slope < TF-specific threshold (Momentum reversal / Momentum-Wende)
- Squeeze SHORT: Bollinger inside Keltner + bearish momentum
- Proven performance: 53.8% $20-rate, R/R 1.39x (Squeeze)
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INDICATORS / INDIKATOREN
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- EMA 20/50/200 (Trend detection + filter / Trend-Erkennung + Filter)
- RSI 14 + RSI Slope (Momentum + direction change / Richtungswechsel)
- Stochastic RSI (Overbought/Oversold conditions)
- MACD 12/26/9 (Momentum confirmation / Momentum-Bestaetigung)
- Bollinger Bands 20/2.0 (Volatility + Squeeze Detection)
- Keltner Channel 20/1.5 (Squeeze Detection)
- ADX 14 (Trend strength / Trendstaerke)
- ATR 14 (Stop Loss / Take Profit calculation)
- Volume SMA 20 (Volume confirmation / Volumen-Bestaetigung)
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REGIME DETECTION / REGIME-ERKENNUNG
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Trend Regime (EMA-based):
- STRONG_TREND_UP / STRONG_TREND_DOWN
- WEAK_TREND_UP (BLOCKED - 0% success rate! / BLOCKIERT - 0% Erfolgsrate!)
- WEAK_TREND_DOWN / NEUTRAL
Volatility Regime (ADX + ATR Percentile):
- TRENDING_HIGH_VOL / TRENDING_LOW_VOL
- SQUEEZE_BUILDING / BREAKOUT_IMMINENT
- RANGING_HIGH_VOL / RANGING_LOW_VOL
- TRANSITIONAL
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CONFIDENCE CALCULATION / CONFIDENCE-BERECHNUNG
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Base confidence from verified win rates per timeframe (0.72-0.92)
Modifiers / Modifikatoren:
+ Extreme RSI/StochK values (+0.03 to +0.05)
+ Trending High Vol Regime (+0.04)
- Ranging High Vol Regime (-0.08)
- Squeeze Building (-0.03)
- Counter-trend / Gegentrend (-0.10)
- Low Volume (-0.05)
Min. confidence for alert: 70% (adjustable / einstellbar)
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STOP LOSS / TAKE PROFIT
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Base trades: ATR x 1.5 (SL) / ATR x 2.5 (TP) = R/R 1:1.67
Squeeze trades: ATR x 1.2 (SL) / ATR x 3.0 (TP) = R/R 1:2.5
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TIMEFRAMES
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Supported / Unterstuetzt: 30S, 45S, 1m-20m (each with individually optimized thresholds / alle mit eigenen optimierten Schwellenwerten)
Best TFs / Beste TFs: 30S (47.1%), 45S (34.8%), 12m+ (33%+)
4m: LONG + SHORT disabled (no data / deaktiviert, keine Daten)
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WEBHOOK ALERT FORMAT (JSON)
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{"signal":"long/short", "symbol":"ETHUSD", "timeframe":"...", "price":..., "source":"Bot_Webhook_v84", "confidence":..., "metadata":{"entry":..., "stop_loss":..., "take_profit":..., "atr":..., "adx":..., "rsi":..., "rsi_slope":..., "stoch_k":..., "signal_type":"...", "strategy":"...", "regime":"...", "vol_regime":"...", "expected_wr":"..."}}
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SETUP
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1. Apply script to ETHUSDT/ETHUSD chart / Script auf ETHUSDT/ETHUSD Chart anwenden
2. Select desired timeframe (30S-20m) / Gewuenschten Timeframe waehlen
3. Create alert and enter webhook URL / Alert erstellen und Webhook-URL eintragen
4. Create a separate alert for each timeframe / Fuer jeden Timeframe einen separaten Alert erstellen
Other versions available / Weitere Versionen verfuegbar: BTC, SOL
DISCLAIMER: This strategy is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management. / Diese Strategie dient zu Bildungszwecken. Vergangene Performance garantiert keine zukuenftigen Ergebnisse. Nutze stets ein angemessenes Risikomanagement.
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AUTOMATED TRADING BOT / AUTOMATISIERTER TRADING-BOT
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Want to automate these signals? A fully automated trading bot is available that processes the webhook alerts from this script and executes trades on Kraken Futures - including risk management, position sizing, regime filtering and smart signal validation.
- Full bot with live trading or paper trading mode
- Processes all signals from this indicator automatically
- Built-in risk management with ATR-based SL/TP
- Multi-timeframe support (30S-20m)
More info: futuresbot.de
Or send me a direct message here on PulseWire!
Du moechtest diese Signale automatisieren? Es gibt einen vollautomatischen Trading-Bot, der die Webhook-Alerts dieses Scripts verarbeitet und Trades auf Kraken Futures ausfuehrt - inklusive Risikomanagement, Positionsgroesse, Regime-Filterung und smarter Signal-Validierung.
- Kompletter Bot mit Live-Trading oder Paper-Trading-Modus
- Verarbeitet alle Signale dieses Indikators automatisch
- Integriertes Risikomanagement mit ATR-basiertem SL/TP
- Multi-Timeframe-Unterstuetzung (30S-20m)
Mehr Infos: futuresbot.de
Oder schreib mir eine persoenliche Nachricht hier auf PulseWire!
Indicator
Indicator
Filter Wave1. Indicator Name
Filter Wave
2. One-line Introduction
A visually enhanced trend strength indicator that uses linear regression scoring to render smoothed, color-shifting waves synced to price action.
3. General Overview
Filter Wave+ is a trend analysis tool designed to provide an intuitive and visually dynamic representation of market momentum.
It uses a pairwise comparison algorithm on linear regression values over a lookback period to determine whether price action is consistently moving upward or downward.
The result is a trend score, which is normalized and translated into a color-coded wave that floats above or below the current price. The wave's opacity increases with trend strength, giving a visual cue for confidence in the trend.
The wave itself is not a raw line—it goes through a three-stage smoothing process, producing a natural, flowing curve that is aesthetically aligned with price movement.
This makes it ideal for traders who need a quick visual context before acting on signals from other tools.
While Filter Wave+ does not generate buy/sell signals directly, its secure and efficient design allows it to serve as a high-confidence trend filter in any trading system.
4. Key Advantages
🌊 Smooth, Dynamic Wave Output
3-stage smoothed curves give clean, flowing visual feedback on market conditions.
🎨 Trend Strength Visualized by Color Intensity
Stronger trends appear with more solid coloring, while weak/neutral trends fade visually.
🔍 Quantitative Trend Detection
Linear regression ordering delivers precise, math-based trend scoring for confidence assessment.
📊 Price-Synced Floating Wave
Wave is dynamically positioned based on ATR and price to align naturally with market structure.
🧩 Compatible with Any Strategy
No conflicting signals—Filter Wave+ serves as a directional overlay that enhances clarity.
🔒 Secure Core Logic
Core algorithm is lightweight and secure, with minimal code exposure and strong encapsulation.
📘 Indicator User Guide
📌 Basic Concept
Filter Wave+ calculates trend direction and intensity using linear regression alignment over time.
The resulting wave is rendered as a smoothed curve, colored based on trend direction (green for up, red for down, gray for neutral), and adjusted in transparency to reflect trend strength.
This allows for fast trend interpretation without overwhelming the chart with signals.
⚙️ Settings Explained
Lookback Period: Number of bars used for pairwise regression comparisons (higher = smoother detection)
Range Tolerance (%): Threshold to qualify as an up/down trend (lower = more sensitive)
Regression Source: The price input used in regression calculation (default: close)
Linear Regression Length: The period used for the core regression line
Bull/Bear Color: Customize the color for bullish and bearish waves
📈 Timing Example
Wave color changes to green and becomes more visible (less transparent)
Wave floats above price and aligns with an uptrend
Use as trend confirmation when other signals are present
📉 Timing Example
Wave shifts to red and darkens, floating below the price
Regression direction down; price continues beneath the wave
Acts as bearish confirmation for short trades or risk-off positioning
🧪 Recommended Use Cases
Use as a trend confidence overlay on your existing strategies
Especially useful in swing trading for detecting and confirming dominant market direction
Combine with RSI, MACD, or price action for high-accuracy setups
🔒 Precautions
This is not a signal generator—intended as a trend filter or directional guide
May respond slightly slower in volatile reversals; pair with responsive indicators
Wave position is influenced by ATR and price but does not represent exact entry/exit levels
Parameter optimization is recommended based on asset class and timeframe Indicator
Indicator
Mutanabby_AI __ OSC+ST+SQZMOMMutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM: Multi-Component Trading Analysis Tool
Overview
The Mutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM indicator combines three proven technical analysis components into a unified trading system, providing comprehensive market analysis through integrated oscillator signals, trend identification, and volatility assessment.
Core Components
Wave Trend Oscillator (OSC): Identifies overbought and oversold market conditions using exponential moving average calculations. Key threshold levels include overbought zones at 60 and 53, with oversold areas marked at -60 and -53. Crossover signals between the two oscillator lines generate entry opportunities, displayed as colored circles on the chart for easy identification.
Supertrend Indicator (ST): Determines overall market direction using Average True Range calculations with a 2.5 factor and 10-period ATR configuration. Green lines indicate confirmed uptrends while red lines signal downtrend conditions. The indicator automatically adapts to market volatility changes, providing reliable trend identification across different market environments.
Squeeze Momentum (SQZMOM): Compares Bollinger Bands with Keltner Channels to identify consolidation periods and potential breakout scenarios. Black squares indicate squeeze conditions representing low volatility periods, green triangles signal confirmed upward breakouts, and red triangles mark downward breakout confirmations.
Signal Generation Logic
Long Entry Conditions:
Green triangles from Squeeze Momentum component
Supertrend line transitioning to green
Bullish crossovers in Wave Trend Oscillator from oversold territory
Short Entry Conditions:
Red triangles from Squeeze Momentum component
Supertrend line transitioning to red
Bearish crossovers in Wave Trend Oscillator from overbought territory
Automated Risk Management
The indicator incorporates comprehensive risk management through ATR-based calculations. Stop losses are automatically positioned at 3x ATR distance from entry points, while three progressive take profit targets are established at 1x, 2x, and 3x ATR multiples respectively. All risk management levels are clearly displayed on the chart using colored lines and informative labels.
When trend direction changes, the system automatically clears previous risk levels and generates new calculations, ensuring all risk parameters remain current and relevant to existing market conditions.
Alert and Notification System
Comprehensive alert framework includes trend change notifications with complete trade setup details, squeeze release alerts for breakout opportunity identification, and trend weakness warnings for active position management. Alert messages contain specific trading pair information, timeframe specifications, and all relevant entry and exit level data.
Implementation Guidelines
Timeframe Selection: Higher timeframes including 4-hour and daily charts provide the most reliable signals for position trading strategies. One-hour charts demonstrate good performance for day trading applications, while 15-30 minute timeframes enable scalping approaches with enhanced risk management requirements.
Risk Management Integration: Limit individual trade risk to 1-2% of total capital using the automatically calculated stop loss levels for precise position sizing. Implement systematic profit-taking at each target level while adjusting stop loss positions to protect accumulated gains.
Market Volatility Adaptation: The indicator's ATR-based calculations automatically adjust to changing market volatility conditions. During high volatility periods, risk management levels appropriately widen, while low volatility conditions result in tighter risk parameters.
Optimization Techniques
Combine indicator signals with fundamental support and resistance level analysis for enhanced signal validation. Monitor volume patterns to confirm breakout strength, particularly when Squeeze Momentum signals develop. Maintain awareness of scheduled economic events that may influence market behavior independent of technical indicator signals.
The multi-component design provides internal signal confirmation through multiple alignment requirements, significantly reducing false signal occurrence while maintaining reasonable trade frequency for active trading strategies.
Technical Specifications
The Wave Trend Oscillator utilizes customizable channel length (default 10) and average length (default 21) parameters for optimal market sensitivity. Supertrend calculations employ ATR period of 10 with factor multiplier of 2.5 for balanced signal quality. Squeeze Momentum analysis uses Bollinger Band length of 20 periods with 2.0 multiplication factor, combined with Keltner Channel length of 20 periods and 1.5 multiplication factor.
Conclusion
The Mutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM indicator provides a systematic approach to technical market analysis through the integration of proven oscillator, trend, and momentum components. Success requires thorough understanding of each element's functionality and disciplined implementation of proper risk management principles.
Practice with demo trading accounts before live implementation to develop familiarity with signal interpretation and trade management procedures. The indicator's systematic approach effectively reduces emotional decision-making while providing clear, objective guidelines for trade entry, management, and exit strategies across various market conditions. Indicator
Reversal IndicatorWhat does this indicator do?
This indicator is designed to help traders spot potential reversal points in the market by combining multiple conditions:
✅ Multi-Timeframe RSI – Checks RSI on a lower timeframe (like 5m) to see if the market is oversold or overbought.
✅ Higher Timeframe SMA Filter – Uses a higher timeframe SMA (like 1h) as a trend filter, so signals only trigger in the direction of the bigger trend.
✅ Candle Pattern Confirmation – Looks for bullish or bearish engulfing candles to confirm price exhaustion before signaling a reversal.
When all these conditions align, the indicator plots a triangle under/above the candle to highlight a possible reversal.
Why is this useful?
Many traders struggle with false RSI signals or candle patterns that fail because they don’t respect the larger trend.
This indicator filters out weak setups by requiring alignment between:
A lower timeframe RSI oversold/overbought condition,
A higher timeframe trend filter (SMA),
And a strong candle reversal pattern.
This multi-layer approach helps avoid chasing every RSI dip and focuses only on high-probability reversal zones.
How does it work?
Bullish reversal signal → appears when RSI on the lower TF is oversold, price is still above the higher TF SMA (trend still intact), AND a bullish engulfing candle forms.
Bearish reversal signal → appears when RSI on the lower TF is overbought, price is below the higher TF SMA, AND a bearish engulfing candle forms.
When all conditions match, the indicator plots a triangle under the candle for bullish signals and above the candle for bearish signals.
How to use it?
Choose your timeframes:
A timeframe for trend filtering (e.g. 1h).
A timeframe for RSI (e.g. 4h).
NOTICE: THE RSI TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE GREATER THEN THE TIMEFRAME FOR THE SMA
Otherwise it will not generate that much signals.
Watch for signals ONLY in the direction of the higher trend.
Use the signals as potential reversal points, not as guaranteed entries. Combine with your own confluence.
Optionally set alerts for bullish or bearish reversal conditions so you never miss a setup.
Customization
✅ Choose your RSI length & overbought/oversold levels.
✅ Select which timeframes you want for SMA & RSI.
✅ Toggle the higher TF SMA display on/off.
✅ Adjust signal appearance (triangles).
Important Notes
⚠️ This is not a standalone trading system. It’s a tool to help spot possible reversal areas. Always confirm with price action, support/resistance, or your own strategy Indicator
Quatro SMA Strategy [4h]Hello, I would like to present to you The "Quatro SMA" strategy
Strategy is based on four simple moving averages of different lengths and monitoring trading volume. The key idea is to identify strong market trends by comparing short-term moving averages with the long-term SMA. The strategy generates buy signals when all short-term SMAs are above the SMA(200) and the volume confirms the strength of the move. Similarly, sell signals are generated when all short-term SMAs are below the SMA(200), and the volume is sufficiently high.
The strategy manages risk by applying a stop loss and three different Take Profit levels (TP1, TP2, TP3), with varying percentages of the position closed at each level.
Each Take Profit level is triggered at a specific percentage gain, with the position being closed gradually depending on the achieved targets. The percentage of the position closed at each TP level is also defined by the user.
Indicators and Parameters:
Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
The script utilizes four simple moving averages with different lengths (4, 16, 32, 200). The first three SMAs (SMA1, SMA2, SMA3) are used to determine the trend direction, while the fourth SMA (with a length of 200) serves as a support/resistance line.
Volume:
The script monitors trading volume and checks if the current volume exceeds 2.5 times the average volume of the last 40 candles. High volume is considered as confirmation of trend strength.
Entry Conditions:
- Long Position: Triggered when SMA1 > SMA2 > SMA3, the closing price is above SMA(200), and the volume condition is met.
- Short Position: Triggered when SMA1 < SMA2 < SMA3, the closing price is below SMA(200), and the volume condition is met.
Exit Conditions:
- Long Position: Closed when SMA1 < SMA2 < SMA3 and the closing price is above SMA(200).
- Short Position: Closed when SMA1 > SMA2 > SMA3 and the closing price is below SMA(200).
to determine the level of stop loss and target point I used a piece of code by RafaelZioni, here is the script from which a piece of code was taken
I hope the strategy will be helpful, as always, best regards and safe trades
;)
Strategy
Strategy
Aroon and ASH strategy - ETHERIUM [IkkeOmar]Intro:
This post introduces a Pine Script strategy, as an example if anyone needs a push to get started. This example is a strategy on ETH, obviously it isn't a good strategy, and I wouldn't share my own good strategies because of alpha decay. This strategy combines two technical indicators: Aroon and Absolute Strength Histogram (ASH).
Overview:
The strategy employs the Aroon indicator alongside the Absolute Strength Histogram (ASH) to determine market trends and potential trade setups. Aroon helps identify the strength and direction of a trend, while ASH provides insights into the strength of momentum. By combining these indicators, the strategy aims to capture profitable trading opportunities in Ethereum markets. Normally when developing strats using indicators, you want to find some good indicators, but you NEED to understand their strengths and weaknesses, other indicators can be incorporated to minimize the downs of another indicator. Try to look for synergy in your indicators!
Indicator settings:
Aroon Indicator:
- Two sets of parameters are used for the Aroon indicator:
- For Long Positions: Aroon periods are set to 56 (upper) and 20 (lower).
- For Short Positions: Aroon periods are set to 17 (upper) and 55 (lower).
Absolute Strength Histogram (ASH):
ASH is calculated with a length of 9 bars using the closing price as the data source.
Trading Conditions:
The strategy incorporates specific conditions to initiate and exit trades:
Start Date:
Traders can specify the start date for backtesting purposes.
Trade Direction:
Traders can select the desired trade direction: Long, Short, or Both.
Entry and Exit Conditions:
1. Long Position Entry: A long position is initiated when the Aroon indicator crosses over (crossover) the lower Aroon threshold, indicating a potential uptrend.
2. Long Position Exit: A long position is closed when the Aroon indicator crosses under (crossunder) the lower Aroon threshold.
3. Short Position Entry: A short position is initiated when the Aroon indicator crosses under (crossunder) the upper Aroon threshold, signaling a potential downtrend.
4. Short Position Exit: A short position is closed when the Aroon indicator crosses over (crossover) the upper Aroon threshold.
Disclaimer:
THIS ISN'T AN OPTIMAL STRATEGY AT ALL! It was just an old project from when I started learning pine script!
The backtest doesn't promise the same results in the future, always do both in-sample and out-of-sample testing when backtesting a strategy. And make sure you forward test it as well before implementing it! Strategy
Indicator
Crypto Trend IndicatorThe Crypto Trend Indicator is a trend-following indicator specifically designed to identify bullish and bearish trends in the price of Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies. This indicator doesn't provide explicit instructions on when to buy or sell, but rather offers an understanding of whether the trend is bullish or bearish. It's important to note that this indicator is only useful for trend trading.
The band is a visual representation of the 30-day and 60-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When the 30-day EMA is above the 60-day EMA, the trend is bullish and the band is green. When the 30-day EMA is below the 60-day EMA, the trend is bearish and the band is red. When the 30-day EMA starts to converge with the 60-day EMA, the trend is neutral and the band is grey.
The line is a visual representation of the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the daily timeframe. "Bull" and "Bear" signals are generated when the 20-day EMA is either above or below the 20-week SMA, in conjunction with a bullish or bearish trend. When the band is green and the 20-day EMA is above the 20-week SMA, a “Bull” signal emerges. When the band is red and the 20-day EMA is below the 20-week SMA, a “Bear” signal emerges. The 20-week SMA can potentially also function as a leading indicator, as substantial price deviations from the SMA typically indicate an overextended market.
While this indicator has traditionally identified bullish and bearish trends in various cryptocurrency assets, past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, it is advisable to supplement this indicator with other technical tools. For instance, range-bound indicators can greatly improve the decision-making process when planning for entries and exits points. Indicator
Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment v1.0Introduction:
Capable of observing the market sentiment of the cryptocurrency market
The relative status of BTC and altcoins
How it works:
1. The general uptrend process of the cryptocurrency market is BTC → ETH → high-cap altcoins → low-cap altcoins. When funds cannot push up BTC's market cap, funds gradually flow into smaller-cap altcoins until the upward trend ends.
2. Select ETH as the representative of altcoins, and understand the sentiment and current stage
3. Mathematical principle : divide the price of ETH by the price of BTC, and then apply it to the RSI formula .
How to use it:
1. Similar to the RSI indicator , when CMS enters the overbought zone, it represents an active altcoin market, a passionate market sentiment , and the end of the uptrend.
2. When CMS enters the oversold zone, it indicates the leading stage of BTC in the rising trend or the capital flow back to BTC in the declining process .
3. If CMS is at a low level, long positions should focus on altcoins, and short positions should focus on BTC, and vice versa.
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简单介绍：
能够观察加密市场市场情绪
BTC和寨币的相对状态
如何工作：
1、加密市场一般的上涨过程为 BTC → ETH → 大市值山寨 → 小市值山寨，当资金无法推动大市值的BTC上涨时，资金就会逐渐流向市值较小的山寨，直到一轮上涨结束。
2、选取ETH作为altcoins的代表，通过ETH与BTC的关系来了解加密市场的情绪和目前上涨的阶段。
3、数学原理：将ETH的价格/BTC的价格，随后将其带入RSI公式
如何使用：
1、与RSI指标类似，当cms进入超买时，代表寨币市场的活跃，市场情绪热烈，上涨进入尾声。
2、当cms进入超卖时，为上涨中BTC领涨的阶段或下降过程中资金回流BTC。
3、如果cms在低位，做多应关注altcoins，做空应关注btc，反之亦然。
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Price Distance RatioThis study plots the ratio between current price and the price N days ago.
With N input that is configurable, users can find optimal long/short entries when price is in an established trend and price has diverge far from a given local peak or all time high.
With many years of stock trading the analysis indicates a connection between the distance of price and subsequent returns.
Portfolios of stocks with lower price to local highes ratios generally underperformed portfolios of stocks with higher prices to peaks reached similar N days ago.
The highest returns to previous peak are recorded when buying at the biggest dip.
For example, the purchase at 20% drawdown could generate 25% when price returns to the peak. The purchase at 50% drawdown could generate bigger, i.e. 100% return, when price returns to the peak. And the purchase at 90% drawdown could generate much bigger, i.e. 900% return, in a case the price returns to the peak.
However, buying very far below local peaks on almost all holding periods produces lower CAGR returns because of "timing adjustment". In simple words, typically the drawdown takes less time vs. further recovery.
For example:
👉 The largest BTC drawdown in 2013-2015 took 410 days (Peak-to-Valley) . And the recovery of BTC to new highs took 771 days (Valley-to-Peak) after that.
👉 The 3rd longest drawdown in BTC took 363 days (observed from December 17, 2017 to December 15, 2018). And further recovery in BTC to its new high took almost two years - 716 days .
👉The 4th longest drawdown in BTC took 162 days (observed from June 08, 2011 to November 17, 2011). And further recovery in BTC to its new high took more than a year - 469 days .
The concept of this study could recognizes at least 4 different modes of action.
👉 In a clearly established upward trend traders should be buying (following the trend) when Ratio is above 100% and reducing the size when Ratio turns below 100%.
👉 Conversely, in a clearly established downward trend traders should be shorted when Ratio is below 100% and covering when the Ratio turns back to 100%.
👉 In a sideways movement traders are advised to wait carefully if the Ratio near 100% for a long time, and take a position the trend is clear.
👉 Chartists can analyze the dynamic of the indicator - both in terms of trends and overall level. For example as it shown at the chart.
The understading of the study and rules of "timing adjustments" could genarate the awesome opportunities for stock options traders also, with strategies of selling uncovered call options and vertical call spreads.
// Many thanks to @HPotter and @Wheeelman wizards for their continious support and assistance.
Indicator
Trend Following based on Trend ConfidenceThis is a Trend Following strategy based on the Trend Confidence indicator.
The goal of this strategy is to be a simple Trend Following strategy, but also to be as precise as possible when it comes to the question 'how confident are we that a linear trend is ongoing?'. For this we calculate the 'confidence' of a linear trend in the past number of closing prices. The idea of this strategy is that past a certain confidence, the ongoing linear trend is more likely to continue than not.
Trend Confidence:
The Trend Confidence shows us how strong of a linear trend the price has made in the past number (given by Length parameter) of closing prices. The steepness of the price change makes the Trend Confidence more extreme (more positive for an uptrend or more negative for a downtrend), and the deviation from a straight line makes the Trend Confidence less extreme (brings the confidence closer to 0). This way we can filter out signals by wild/sudden price moves that don't follow a clear linear trend.
Math behind the Trend Confidence:
A linear fit is made on the past number of closing prices, using Ordinary Linear Regression. We have the steepness of the linear fit: b in y=a+bx . And we have the standard deviation of the distances from the closing prices to the linear fit: sd . The Trend Confidence is the ratio b/sd .
Entries and Exits:
For entry and exit points we look at how extreme the Trend Confidence is. The strategy is based on the assumption that past a certain confidence level, the ongoing linear trend is more likely to continue than not.
So when the Trend Confidence passes above the 'Long entry" threshold, we go Long. After that when the Trend Confidence passes under the 'Long exit' threshold, we exit. The Long entry should be a positive value so that we go Long once a linear uptrend with enough confidence has been detected.
When the Trend Confidence passes below the 'Short entry' threshold, we go Short. After that when the Trend Confidence passes above the 'Short exit' threshold, we exit. The Short entry should be a negative value so that we go Short once a linear downtrend with enough confidence has been detected.
Default Parameters:
The strategy is intended for BTC-USD market, 4 hour timeframe. The strategy also works on ETH-USD with similar parameters.
The Length is arbitrarily set at 30, this means we look at the past 30 closing prices to determine a linear trend. Note that changing the length will change the range of Trend Confidence values encountered.
The default entry and exit thresholds for Longs and Shorts do not mirror each other. This is because the BTC-USD market goes up more heavily and more often than it goes down. So the ideal parameters for Longs and Shorts are not the same.
The positive results of the strategy remain when the parameters are slightly changed (robustness check).
The strategy uses 100% equity per trade, but has a 10% stop loss so that a maximum of 10% is risked per trade.
Commission is set at 0.1% as is the highest commission for most crypto exchanges.
Slippage is set at 5 ticks, source for this is theblock.co.
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