The Signal - Hunt Bitcoin CoT Buy/SellThe Signal - Hunt Bitcoin CoT Buy/Sell
Why Bother with another CoT signal?
Its different & focused on the Insider's. The Largest 4 Open Interest Seller and the Largest 4 open Interest Longs, plus the distance they are apart, the Delta, what does high percentage of Largest 4 sellers mean with a low 4 OI Buyers. , what when the usually higher Sellers are low and the largest 4 buyers almost the same value , Time to track the insiders Delta..
Performance -
This Indicator provided a
1. Signal 1 = 26th March 2019 = SUPER LONG at $4,500 that saw a near $14,000 run up
2. Signal 2 = 18th & 24th June 2019 = SHORT at the second & final level $11,700 after repeated attempts & failure in the $13K range, the mini Echo Bitcoin Bull of 2019
3. Signal 3 = 17th December 2019 = LONG $6,900, Bitcoin rallied to Mid $10,500's
4. Signal 4 = 18th Feb 2020 = SUPER SHORT from $9,700's to a final extreme Low of $3,000, calling the CV-19 collapse
5. Signal 5 = 17th March 2020 = LONG from $5,400 no closure point yet
6. Signal 6 = 29th June 2020 = SUPER LONG reiterate from $10,700 no closure sell signal yet
7. Signal 7 = 17th May 2020 = LONG another accumulate LONG with no sell signal yet generated at Post H&S's low of $33,000
Note - This indicator only commences March 2019, as Bitcoin futures were a recent introduction and needed to settle for 6 months in both use and data, no signals were meaningful prior & data was light.
What is Provided. - Please note the need to also add the Hunt Bitcoin Historical Volatility Indicator for full understanding.
We provide 3 things with the 3 indicators.
'Insider' indications from Largest players in the futures market.
1. Bitcoin Macro Buy Signals.
a) The Bitcoin Commitment of Traders results see us focus solely on Largest 4 Short Open Interest & Largest 4 Long Open Interest aspects of the CoT Release data.
When the difference - is tight, a kind of pinch, these have been great Buy signals in Bitcoin.
We call this difference the Delta & When Delta is 5% or less Bitcoin is a Buy.
2. Bitcoin Macro Sells.
a) A sell signal is Triggered in Bitcoin at any point the Largest 4 short OI > or = to 70
3. AMPLIFIER Trade signals 'Super' Longs or Shorts -
Extreme low volatility events leads to highly impulsive & volatile subsequent moves, if either of 1 or 2 above occur, combined with extreme low volatility
a 'Super Long' or 'SUPER SELL' is generated. In the case of the short side, given Bitcoins general expansive and MACRO Bull trend since inception, we seek an additional component
that is an extreme differential/Delta reading between 4 biggest Longs & Shorts OI.
Namely CoT Delta also must be > 47.5%
We also have a Cautionary level, where it is not necessarily a good idea to accumulate Bitcon, as a better opportunity lower may avail itself, see conditions below.
So the required logic explicitly stated below for all Signals.
1. Long - Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta < or = 5
2. SUPER Long - Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta < or = 5; and 2 Day Historical Bitcoin Volatility = or < 20
3. Short - Largest 4 Sellers OI = or > 70
4. SUPER Short - Largest 4 Sellers OI = or > 70; AND..
Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta = or > 47.5 AND 2 Day Historical BTC Volatility = or < 20
5. Caution - Largest 4 Sellers OI = or > 67.5 AND Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta = or > 45
WARNING SEE Notes Below
Note 1 - = Largest 4 Open Interest Shorts
Note 2 - = Largest 4 Open Interest Longs
Note 3 - = Hunt Cot Delta = (Largest 4 sellers OI) -( Largest 4 Buyers OI)
Caution = Avoid new Bitcoin Accumulation Right Now, A sell signal might follow Enter on next Long
Note 4 - The Hunt Bitcoin COT Delta signal is a Largest 'Insider' Tracking tool based on a segment of Commitment of Traders data on Bitcoin Futures, released once a week on a Friday.
It is a Macro Timeframe signal , and should not be used for Day trading and Short Timeframe analysis , Entries may be optimised after a Hunt Bitcoin CoT Signal is generated by separate shorter Timeframe analysis.
Note 5 - The Historical Bitcoin Volatility is an additional 'Amplifier' component to the 'Hunt Bitcoin Cot Delta' Insider Signal
Note 6 - The Historical Bitcoin Volatility criteria varies by timeframe, the above levels are those applying on a Two Day TF Chart, select this custom timeframe in Trading View.
if additional criteria are met for LONG & SHORT insider signals, they may become 'Super Longs/Shorts', see conditions box above.
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INDICES against BTC & ETHThe idea is the following; you can easily chart the FTX perp indices against (currently) two baselines, ETH & BTC.
I always choose ETH since it is way harder to outperform ETH at the moment. Doing this helps me see certain trends and/or fractal that might happen again in the future.
Since I already made D.A.M (Defi against Majors / Pricing Defi categories against BTC & ETH: ) I came across the idea of doing the same thing but with the perp indices that FTX offer. At first, I wanted to add this to D.A.M but it has no place in this indicator since this will not only look at Defi but the macro market as a whole.
The indicator currently only looks at the following indexes (weighting can be found here: https:// help. ftx. com/hc/en-us/articles/360027668812-Index-Calculation) :
DRGN: THE DRAGON INDEX
ARPA, BTM, IOST, NEO, NULS, ONT, QTUM, TRX, VET
ALT: ALTCOIN INDEX
BCH, BNB, EOS, ETH, LTC, XRP, TRX, DOT, LINK, ADA
MID: THE MID CAP INDEX
ALGO, ATOM, BAT, CRO, DASH, DCR, DOGE, HT, IOTA, LEO, NEO, OKB, ONT, QTUM, VET, XEM, XLM, XMR, XTZ, ZEC, ZRX, OMG, COMP, BSV, FTT, YFI, UNI, SNX, MKR, AAVE
SHIT: THE SHITCOIN INDEX
AE, AION, ARDR, ARPA, BCD, BEAM, BTG, BTM, BTS, BTT, CHZ, CKB, DGB, ELF, ENJ, GNT, GRIN, GT, HBAR, HC, ICX, IOST, KMD, KNC, LAMB, LRC, LSK, MANA, MATIC, MCO, NANO, NULS, OMG, POWR, PUNDIX, REN, REP, RVN, SC, SNT, STEEM, THETA, TOMO, VSYS, WAVES, XVG, XZC, ZEN, ZIL, ZRX
PRIV: THE PRIVACY INDEX
BEAM, DCR, GRIN, KMD, XMR, XVG, XZC, ZEC, ZEN
DEFI: THE DECENTRALIZED FINANCE INDEX
KNC, MKR, ZRX, REN, REP, SNX, COMP, TOMO, RUNE, CRV, DOT, LINK, MTA, SOL, CREAM, BAND, SRM, SUSHI, SWRV, AVAX, YFI, UNI, WNXM, AAVE, BAL
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Maximized Moving Average Crossing (by Coinrule)Using the crossings of two Moving Averages to trade in a trading strategy is a Trend-Following approach. As the name would suggest, to be successful, it requires the asset to be on-trend.
The general limit of a common strategy based on Moving Averages is that they underperform when the market is less volatile or trading sideways. When volatility compresses, the indicators get very close one to another, crossing each other very often. That's exactly the condition when trend-following strategies underperform.
To improve this strategy, it's useful to filter the buy signal using the RSI. When the RSI is close to overbought conditions, that means that the coin is likely trading in an uptrend. Strong uptrends usually come with RSI values that stay overbought for long periods, creating interesting opportunities.
Setup
Buy condition: the MA9 crosses above the MA50, and at the same time, the RSI has a value greater than 55.
Sell condition: the MA9 crosses below the MA50.
The strategy is optimized to provide better results on the 1-hr time frame, but it could work well also on higher time frames, such as the 4-hrs.
The strategy assumes each order to trade 30% of the available capital and opens a trade at a time. A trading fee of 0.1% is taken into account.
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BTC and ETH Long strategy - version 2I wrote my first article in May 2020. See below
BTC and ETH Long strategy - version1
After 6 months, it is now time to check the result of my script for the last 6 months.
XBTUSD (4H): 14/05/2020 --> 22/11/2020 = +78% in 4 trades
ETHXBT (4H): 14/05/2020 --> 22/11/2020 = +21% in 9 trades
ETHUSD (4H): 14/05/2020 --> 22/11/2020 = +90% in 6 trades
Using the signals from this strategy to trade manually has shown that this was a bit frustrating because of the low rate of winning trades.
If you have to enter 100 trades and see 75% of them failing and 25% winning, this is frustrating. For sure the strategy makes good money but it is difficult to hold this mentality.
So, I have reviewed and modified it to get a higher winning rate.
After few days of work, tests and validation, I managed to get a wining rate close to 60%.
The key element was also to decrease the number of trades by using a higher time frame. (4H candles instead of 2H candles).
- Entry in position is based on
MACD, EMA (20), SMA (100), SMA (200) moving up
AND EMA (20) > SMA (100)
AND SMA (100) > SMA (200)
- Exit the position if: Stoploss is reached OR EMA (20) crossUnder SMA (100)
The goal of this new script is to be able to follow the signals manually and only make few trades per years.
I have also validated it against some other altcoins where some are giving very good results.
Here are some results for 2020 (from 01/01/2020 until now (22/11/2020). Those results are the one I get when using 4H candles.
ETH/USD: +144% in 8 trades.
BTC/USD: +120% in 7 trades.
ETH/BTC: +33% in 9 trades.
ICX/USD: +123% in 10 trades.
LINK/USD: +155% in 11 trades.
MLN/USD: +388% in 8 trades.
ADA/USD: +180% in 7 trades.
LINK/BTC: +97% in 10 trades.
The best is that above results are without considering compound effect. If you re-invest all gains done in each new trade, this will give you the below results :)
ETH/USD: +189% in 8 trades.
BTC/USD: +260% in 7 trades.
ETH/BTC: +29% in 9 trades.
ICX/USD: +112% in 10 trades.
LINK/USD: +222% in 11 trades.
MLN/USD: +793% in 8 trades.
ADA/USD: +319% in 7 trades.
LINK/BTC: +103% in 10 trades.
As you can see, the results are good and the number of trades for 11 months is not big, which allows the trader to place orders manually.
But still, I'm lazy :), so, I have also coded this strategy in HaasScript language which allows you to automate this strategy using the HaasOnline software specialized in automated crypto trading.
I hope that this strategy will give you ideas or will be the starting point for your own strategy.
Let me know if you need more details.
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Crypto USD VolumeOften times I need to check the volume in cryptocurrency exchanges and I find myself checking which type of volume I am looking at, I need to manually make sense what the data is and converting it into USD volume which I end up going to CoinMarketCap website to verify whether my calculation is right.
Today I thought it was about time I created an automatic way to find the volume in USD Dollars. This is what this script does.
1 - It removes the base currency from the symbol (e.g., "BTCUSD", it would remove "BTC", leaving us with the "USD" part.). This is important because it helps us identify the currency the pair uses.
2 - It has different pair's variables, each is given a specific currency that the final volume is calculated from. (BTC, ETH, BNB and USD are the default currencies, for other ones, it must be added manually).
This works with all crypto symbols that include BTC, ETH, BNB and USD as currencies. If you modify it, please make sure to compare data with the exchange's one. Indicator

KINSKI RSI Short/LongExtends the display of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) by shorts and longs from Bitmex and shows them as a diagram.
How to interpret the display?
- blue line is the default Relative Strength Index
- red line means "oversold
- green line "overbought"
- grey dotted line up/down indicates the optimal range for up and down movements 30 to 70
- in general, the reaching or crossing of the thresholds in the direction of the mid-range is seen as a possible buy or sell signal
- RSI values (blue line) of over 70 percent are considered "overbought", values below 30 percent "oversold
Which settings can be made?
- Selection for the "Currency". Default value is "BTCUSD". Currently only the following currencies are supported "BTCUSD", "ETHUSD", "ETCUSD", "OMGUSD", "XLMUSD", "XTZUSD".
- Selection for calculation formula ("Calculation"). The default value is "hlc3".
- Field for the moving average value ("RSI Length"). The default value is 14, but values of 7, 9 or 25 are also common. The shorter the period under consideration, the more volatile the indicator is, but with longer periods, fewer signals are triggered.
- furthermore you can make layout adjustments via the "Style" menu Indicator
