Indicator
Indicator
EQma - Adaptive Smoothing Based On Optimal Markets DetectionIntroduction
"You don’t put sunscreen when there is no sun, you don’t use an umbrella when there is no rain, you don’t use a kite when there is no wind, so why would you use a trend following strategy when there is no trend ?"
This is how i start my 4th paper "A New Technical Indicator For Optimal Markets Detection" where i present two new technical indicators. We talked about the first one, running equity, which aim to detect the best moment to enter trades, based on this new metric i made an adaptive moving average.
You can see the full paper here figshare.com
The Indicator
The moving average is based on exponential averaging and use a smoothing variable alpha based on the running equity metric, in order to calculate alpha the running equity is divided by the optimal equity which show the best returns possible for the conditions used. Basically the indicator work as follow :
When the running equity is close to the optimal equity it means that the price need no/little filtering since it does not contain information that need to be filtered, therefore alpha is high, however when the running equity is far from the optimal equity this mean that the price posses malign information that need to be removed.
This is why the indicator will be closer to the price when length is high :
See the full paper for an explanation on how this work.
I added various options for the indicator, one will reduce the lag by squaring alpha, thus giving for length = 14 :
The efficient option will make use of recursion to provide a more efficient indicator :
In green the efficient version, note how this option can allow a better fit with the price.
Conclusion
This is an indicator but at its core its rather a framework, if you have read the paper you'll see that the conditions are just 1 and -1 that changes with time, basically its like making a strategy with :
Condition = if buy then 1 else if sell then -1 else Precedent value of condition.
So those two indicators allow to give useful and usable information about your strategy. I hope it can be of use for anyone here, if so don't hesitate to send me what you made using the proposed indicator (and with all my indicators in general). If you are writing a paper and you think this indicator could fit in your work then let me know so i can be aware of it :)
Thanks for reading !
Acknowledgement
My papers are quite ridiculous but they still manage to get some views, some researchers don't even reach those number in so little time which is quite unfortunate but also really motivating for me, so thanks to those who take time to read them and give me some feedback :)
Indicator
Running Equity - A New Indicator For Optimal Markets DetectionIntroduction
Winning trades and gaining profits in trading is not impossible, however having gross profits superior to gross losses is what make trading challenging, it is logical to think that it is better to open a position when the probability of winning the trade is high, such probability can’t be measured with accuracy but a lot of metrics have been proposed in order to help determining when to open positions, technical analysis support the fact that a trending market is the best market condition for opening a position, which is logical when using a trend following strategy, therefore a long-term positive auto-correlated market is optimal for trading, this is why this paper present a new method for detecting optimal markets conditions in order to open a position.
The Indicator
The proposed indicator is based on the assumption that positive returns using a trend following strategy are a strong indication of trend strength, the proposed indicator is built from the conditions of a simple SMA cross trend following strategy, which are to go long when price > SMA and to go short when price < SMA. Then the equity from those conditions is built, in order to provide a more flexible indicator, length control the period of the sum.
When the indicator is positive it means that the market allow for potential returns, it can thus be considered being trending. Else a negative value of the indicator indicate a ranging market that won't allow for returns.
Filtering Bad Trades
The indicator can be used to filter bad trades entries, in this example a Bollinger band breakout strategy is used, without any changes the strategy return the following equity on EURUSD
The proposed indicator is then applied with the following conditions : buy and sell only if Req > 0
With an indicator period = 100 we filtered unprofitable trades.
Conclusion
I presented a new indicator for the detection of optimal markets based on a running equity. I hope both indicators may find applications in technical analysis and help investors get pertinent outputs from them.
it would mean a lot if you could read the original paper : figshare.com
Indicator
Understanding order sizestype: properties manipulation, no programming needed
time required: 15minutes, at least
level: medium (need to know contracts, trading pairs)
A strategy can "appear" to work or be broken depending on the pile of cash that is working on. This amount is defined in the strat properties, under "order size".
For noobs (like me) this is very confusing at first :)
A strat opens/closes positions using units, a generic measure for the chart being operated on. Thes "units" can be a fixed amount of cash, a fixed amount of contracts, or a floating amount based on the last profits made. I recommend checking my previous strat to figure the case of contracts .
So, any trading price is the amount of "things" you get for some "cash". The things are the first unit, the "cash" is the second. Some examples:
XAU/USD - 1 xau oz is worth x dollars
BTC/USD - 1 bitcoin is worth x dollars
GBP/EUR - 1 pound is worth x euros
To add to confusion, a lot of markets the "unit size" is different from what the strat thinks it is. An options contract is 100 shares(the unit), 1 xau contract is 10 oz(units), 1 eur/usd contract is 100k euros and so on... so, after figuring out how the sizes work in a strat, then the sizes must be adapted for the specific market in question.
The choice os using the ETHUSD pair is because:
1 - you can buy 1eth, unlike a gold contract for example, so 1 "unit" = 1 eth, easier to get
2 - ETH is around 12 bucks, wich gives round numbers on the math, easier to wrap the brains around :)
3- is an unusual pair, so the regular contract sizes don't apply, and the brain is not conditioned to work inside the box ;)
You will have to access the script properties, to change the values. As these values are changed you will see exactly the differences in the values of the strat.
Text is too long, check the comments for all the cases
Strategy
Strategy
