Statistical and Financial MetricsGood morning traders!
This time I want to share with you a little script that, thanks to the use of arrays, allows you to have interesting statistical and financial insights taken from the symbol on chart and compared to those of another symbol you desire (in this case the metrics taken from the perpetual future ETHUSDT are compared to those taken from the perpetual future BTCUSDT, used as a proxy for the direction of cryptocurrency market)
By enabling "prevent repainting", the data retrieved from the compared symbol won't be on real time but they will static since they will belong to the previous closed candle
Here are the metrics you can have by storing data from a variable period of candles (by default 51):
✓ Variance (of the symbol on chart in GREEN; of the compared symbol in WHITE)
✓ Standard Deviation (of the symbol on chart in OLIVE; of the compared symbol in SILVER)
✓ Yelds (of the symbol on chart in LIME; of the compared symbol in GRAY) → yelds are referred to the previous close, so they would be calculated as the the difference between the current close and the previous one all divided by the previous close
✓ Covariance of the two datasets (in BLUE)
✓ Correlation coefficient of the two datasets (in AQUA)
✓ β (in RED) → this insight is calculated in three alternative ways for educational purpose (don't worry, the output would be the same).
WHAT IS BETA (β)?
The BETA of an asset can be interpretated as the representation (in relative terms) of the systematic risk of an asset: in other terms, it allows you to understand how big is the risk (not eliminable with portfolio diversification) of an asset based on the volatilty of its yelds.
We say that this representation is made in relative terms since it is expressed according to the market portfolio: this portfolio is hypothetically the portfolio which maximizes the diversification effects in order to kill all the specific risk of that portfolio; in this way the standard deviation calculated from the yelds of this portfolio will represent just the not-eliminable risk (the systematic risk), without including the eliminable risk (the specific risk).
The BETA of an asset is calculated as the volatilty of this asset around the volatilty of the market portfolio: being more precise, it is the covariance between the yelds of the current asset and those of the market portfolio all divided by the variance of the yelds of market portfolio.
Covariance is calculated as the product between correlation coefficient, standard deviation of the first dataset and standard deviation of the second asset.
So, as the correlation coefficient and the standard deviation of the yelds of our asset increase (it means that the yelds of our asset are very similiar to those of th market portfolio in terms of sign and intensity and that the volatility of these yelds is quite high), the value of BETA increases as well
According to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) promoted by William Sharpe (the guy of the "Sharpe Ratio") and Harry Markowitz, in efficient markets the yeld of an asset can be calculated as the sum between the risk-free interest rate and the risk premium. The risk premium of the specific asset would be the risk premium of the market portfolio multiplied with the value of beta. It is simple: if the volatility of the yelds of an asset around the yelds of market protfolio are particularly high, investors would ask for a higher risk premium that would be translated in a higher yeld.
In this way the expected yeld of an asset would be calculated from the linear expression of the "Security Market Line": r_i = r_f + β*(r_m-r_f)
where:
r_i = expected yeld of the asset
r_f = risk free interest rate
β = beta
r_m = yeld of market portfolio
I know that considering Bitcoin as a proxy of the market portfolio involved in the calculation of Beta would be an inaccuracy since it doesn't have the property of maximum diversification (since it is a single asset), but there's no doubt that it's tying the prices of altcoins (upward and downward) thanks to the relevance of its dominance in the capitalization of cryptocurrency market. So, in the lack of a good index of cryptocurrencies (as the FTSE MIB for the italian stock market), and as long the dominance of Bitcoin will persist with this intensity, we can use Bitcoin as a proxy of the market portfolio
Indicator
Bitcoin Bulls and Bears by @dbtrBitcoin 🔥 Bulls & Bears 🔥
v1.0
This free-of-charge BTC market analysis indicator helps you better understand what's going with Bitcoin from a high-level perspective. At a glance, it will give you an immediate understanding of Bitcoin’s historic price channel dating back to 2011, past and current market cycles, as well as current key support levels.
Usage
Use this indicator with any BTCUSD pairs , ideally with a long price history (such as BNC:BLX )
We recommend to use this indicator in log mode, combined with Weekly or Monthly timeframe.
Features
🕵🏻♂️ Historic price channel curve since 2011
🚨 Bull & bear market cycles (dynamic)
🔥 All-time highs (dynamic)
🌟 Weekly support (dynamic, based on 20 SMA )
💪 Long-term support (channel bottom)
🔝 Potential future price targets (dynamic)
❎ Overbought RSI coloring
📏 Log/non-log support
🌚 Dark mode support
Remarks
With exception of the price channel curve, anything in this indicator is calculated dynamically , including bull/bear market cycles (based on a tweaked 20SMA), ATHs, and so on. As a result, historic market cycles may not be 100% accurately reflected and may also differ slightly in between various time-frames (closest result: Monthly). The indicator may even consider periods of heavy ups/downs as their own market cycles, even though they weren’t. Due to its dynamic nature, this indicator can however adapt to the future and helps you quickly identify potential changes in market structure, even if the indicator is no longer updated.
On top of that bullmarket cycles (colored in green) feature an ingrained RSI: the darker the green color, the more the RSI is overbought and close to a correction (darkest color in the chart = 90 Weekly RSI). In comparison with past bull cycles, it helps you easily spot potential reversal zones.
Thanks
Thanks to @quantadelic and @mabonyi which both have worked on the BTC "growth zones" indicator including the price channel, of which I have used parts of the code as well as the actual price channel data.
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Enjoy & happy trading! Indicator
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Trend Reversal Indicator (EMA of slopes)Good morning Traders
Inspirated by lukescream EMA-slope strategy, today I want to share with you this simple indicator whose possible use-case would be for detecting in advance possible trend reversals, specially on higher timeframes.
Once that you've chosen the desired source (RSI, EMA or Stochastic k or d), the indicator will calculate its "slope" approximating its first order derivative by the division between the last variation of the series and its last value.
You can see the slope as a white line by enabling the relative checkmark (it's disabled by default since it simply messes up the the graph)
Then, the slope itself becomes the source for two exponential moving averages: the fast one (in blue) has a period of 20 while the slow one (in red, it becomes similiar to a horizontal line actually) has a period of 500
Why the slope? Since all the sources mentioned before are directly or indirectly calculated on the price action, a more aggressiveness in the price movement would be translated into a more (positive/negative) steepness of those indicator (of course this effect would be far more evident if the indicators are calculated on low periods, but really low periods could compromise the consistency of the signals).
In this way, the slope would mirror the decisiveness of price movements and a comparison between two averages calculated from it (the first one based on more recent values, the second one that conisders also older values) could tell you in advance what direction the market is possibly about to take
The usage is simple: once that the fast moving average crosses upward the slow one, this could be a sign of potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. On the contrary, if the fast EMA crosses downward the slow one, this could be a sign of potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
What I suggest you is to integrate this indicator with Exponential Moving Averages plotted on the price candles, in order to have a general bias for opening long or short positions, and with an oscillator as well such as the Stochastisc RSI in order to detect the overbought/oversold zones for opening/closing positions at the right moment.
Happy Trading! Indicator
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BTC Longs & Shorts Profile WHAT DOES THIS INDICATOR DO?
I started with the idea of creating another premium indicator with a bunch of features and add it to the bundle. However, the more complex the code was becoming, the less helpful the indicator actually was. So I started from scratch and made BTC Longs & Shorts Profile super simple (as you can see in the code).
The advantage over other similar indicators is that this one has a drop-down menu and allows you to select whether you want to see Longs, Shorts, Ratio, or Difference. Having Longs and Shorts at the same time is a bit confusing because Longs pretty much dwarf the Shorts and the ups and downs are not clearly visible. Also, you can configure the colors for each visible line.
My suggestion is to add this indicator to your BTC chart, save it as a template from the top menu on PulseWire and stop switching between BTC, Bitfinex Longs and Shorts. You have everything in one simple window (that's especially the case if you are not a pro or premium member and can't have more than 2 screens simultaneously).
ANYTHING ELSE ?
On a side note, if you are planning on working on a similar indicator, let me tell you what I've tried so far and it didn't work for me:
- RSI calculations including Longs and Shorts as a base
- Longs and Shorts in relation to BTC itself and a relationship with the volume
- Directional Movement Index, where Longs are DM+ and Shorts are DM-
- Smoothing both Longs and Shorts and trying to find a relationship (including some pseudo MACD lookalikes)
Anyway, if you have any ideas or suggestions on improving this indicator, please let me know. Thanks! Indicator
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CRYPTO HA Strategy money maker long termToday I bring you another amazing strategy.
Its made of 2 EMA in this case 50 and 100.
At the same time, internaly for candles we calculate the candles using the HA system ( while still using in live the normal candles). This way we can assure that even if we use HA candles, we avoid repainting, and its legit.
We first calculate the HA candles based on the EMA 50 values, and after that , we use that candle properties to apply to EMA 100.
Once we have that, for entries we have the next conditions :
sell = o2 > c2 and o2 < c2 and time_cond
buy = o2 < c2 and o2 > c2 and time_cond
For sell : Our open from HA 100 is bigger than Close from ha 100, and the previous open is smaller than previous close
For long : Our open from ha 100 is smaller than close from ha 100 and the previous open is bigger than previous close.
Then we have 2 options :
If we wnat to go only long , which is my prefered version ,or the original one where we go both long and short.
I found that the best results are in general around bigger timeframes, 1h+ , 3h works the best so far on my tests.
For exit we have 2 versions :
1 lets say we had a long signal, as soon as we have a short signal we close the trade. Viceversa for short.
2. Is based on price % movement. In this case I use 7.5% price movement of asset.
We have no TP in use for this system.
For the purpose of this test I use 10.000 $ account. For test I use 100% of it, without any leverage.
I use the SL based on price movement , which is a very risky tool, since it can fluctuate even at 20-30% of our capital.
For comission I used 0.1% for each deal, and a slippage of 5 points.
Be cautious with this system !
If you have any questions , message me. Strategy
Crypto MultiTrend multi timeframesHello, today I bring you another crypto strategy which can work with multiple timeframes and most of crypto currencies
Its made entirelly of multiple EMA , of different lengths : like super fast, fast, normal, slow and very slow
We also combine a little bit of price action together with the trend direction both for entry and for exits, to have a more precise control.
The rules for long close is above all EMA's, they are in ascending order and the at same time close is bigger than the previous high, and previous high > second previous high, close > 3rd previous high , close > 4th previous high, close > 5th previous high, 5th high > 6th high.
For short we have the same, but instead of high, we use lows, and instead of > we use < .
As exit we have 2 conditions for long and 2 for short
To exit long we have : super fast ema < fast ema and fast ema < normal and normal < slow ema. For short, they would be the opposite, using > sign.
The second exit for long is when our current low crosses below 4 of ours EMA during the same candle. For short, is when the high crosses above 4 of ours EMA during the same candle.
CAUTIOUS : Currently it uses not risk management system, so in this current condition is extremely risky . Be careful
If you have any questions lets me know Strategy
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