Credit Stress Composite V2 Credit Stress Composite 2
Credit Stress Composite 2 is a macro-credit regime oscillator designed to identify shifts between easing credit conditions, tightening pressure, stress, and extreme credit dislocation.
The indicator combines multiple credit and macro-confirmation inputs into a single normalized composite, then maps that composite into clear regime zones. The goal is not to call exact tops or bottoms, but to identify when credit conditions are improving, deteriorating, or reaching historically elevated stress levels.
**Core Features**
- Composite credit stress oscillator
- Signal line and histogram for momentum confirmation
- Regime thresholds for calm, tightening, stress, and extreme stress
- Background shading by credit regime
- Early deterioration, confirmed tightening, easing reversal, and extreme stress markers
- Regime table for quick state reading
- Export plots for use in broader dashboard or stack systems
**How I Use It**
Rising readings suggest credit stress is increasing. Falling readings suggest credit conditions are easing. The most useful signals often occur when the oscillator begins reversing from elevated stress zones, especially when price structure confirms the shift.
In the BTC example shown, prior easing reversal signals appeared near major Phase 2 bull-market transitions, where credit stress began cooling while price started reclaiming upside momentum.
**Signal Types**
- `ED` Early Deterioration: first signs of tightening pressure
- `CT` Confirmed Tightening: stronger confirmation of rising stress
- `ER` Easing Reversal: stress begins easing from elevated conditions
- `XS` Extreme Stress: composite reaches extreme stress territory
**Important Notes**
This tool is intended for macro context and regime awareness. It should be used with price structure, trend, liquidity, and risk-management tools. It is not a standalone buy or sell signal.
Credit conditions can lead, lag, or diverge from price depending on the asset and cycle stage.
**Disclaimer**
This script is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately. Indicator
Indicator
10Y Yield Spread - Auto FX Pair10Y Yield Spread — Auto FX Pair
Automatically displays the 10-year government bond yield spread for the FX pair currently on your chart. Switch from EURUSD to USDJPY to GBPAUD and the indicator instantly recalculates — no manual reconfiguration needed.
What it shows
The spread between the base currency's 10Y yield and the quote currency's 10Y yield, expressed in basis points. For example:
USD/JPY → US10Y minus JP10Y
EUR/USD → DE10Y (Bund) minus US10Y
GBP/AUD → GB10Y minus AU10Y
A positive spread (green) means the base currency offers a yield premium — historically a tailwind for the pair. A negative spread (red) means the opposite. The wider the spread, the stronger the rates differential pushing the pair.
Why it matters
Yield differentials are one of the most reliable medium-term drivers of major FX pairs. When the spread trends one way and the pair trends the other, you're often looking at a setup waiting to resolve — either the pair catches up, or the spread breaks. Particularly powerful for:
Carry trade decisions (positive spreads = positive carry on the long side)
Filtering FX trades against the macro backdrop
Spotting divergences between price and rates
Anticipating central bank repricing impact across pairs
Confirming or fading reactions to CPI, NFP, and rate decisions
Supported pairs
All combinations of the 8 majors: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF. Auto-detection works on standard naming (EURUSD, EUR/USD, OANDA:USDJPY, FX:GBPJPY, etc.). For exotic symbols or futures, switch to Manual mode and pick base/quote from the dropdowns.
Yield benchmarks used
USD → US10Y (US Treasury)
EUR → DE10Y (German Bund, eurozone benchmark)
JPY → JP10Y (JGB)
GBP → GB10Y (Gilt)
AUD → AU10Y
NZD → NZ10Y
CAD → CA10Y
CHF → CH10Y
Settings
Moving average : configurable SMA overlay (default 50) to smooth the spread trend
Zero line : visual reference for spread sign change
Background fill : green above zero, red below — instant regime read
End label : shows current pair and live spread value in bps
Pair detection : Auto (reads chart ticker) or Manual (override with dropdowns)
Recommended setup
Works on any FX chart timeframe from 15m to daily. For best results, pair this with my companion indicator Bond Yield Strength — 10Y Majors to see the full rates landscape alongside the specific spread of your pair.
Notes
DE10Y (German Bund) is used as the EUR proxy — it's the de facto eurozone benchmark used by rates desks globally. Data availability for some symbols depends on your PulseWire plan; if a yield doesn't render, your plan may not include that exchange.
Feedback and suggestions welcome. Indicator
Bond Yield Strength - 10Y MajorsBond Yield Strength — 10Y Majors
Track intraday momentum across the 8 major bond markets in a single panel. This indicator plots the change in 10-year government bond yields for USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD and CHF, normalized to a common starting point so you can instantly see which currencies are catching a bid in the rates market — and which are getting sold.
What it shows
Each line represents how far a country's 10Y yield has moved (in basis points or %) since the start of the current period. All 8 lines start at zero on each reset, making relative strength immediately readable. A line climbing above zero means yields are rising in that country (typically bullish for the currency); a line falling below zero means yields are dropping.
The eight benchmarks tracked:
USD → US10Y (US Treasury)
EUR → DE10Y (German Bund, the eurozone benchmark)
JPY → JP10Y (JGB)
GBP → GB10Y (Gilt)
AUD → AU10Y
NZD → NZ10Y
CAD → CA10Y
CHF → CH10Y
Why it's useful
Rate differentials drive FX. When US yields rip while Bunds stay flat, EUR/USD usually feels it. This indicator gives you that read at a glance, without flipping between 8 separate charts. Particularly useful for:
Spotting which currencies have a yield tailwind heading into a session
Confirming or fading FX moves against the rates backdrop
Watching the reaction to central bank decisions, CPI releases, and bond auctions across all majors simultaneously
Identifying outliers (one yield diverging from the pack often precedes an FX move)
Settings
Display unit : basis points (default, the standard rates unit) or percent
Reset period : Daily, Weekly, or Monthly — choose your lookback horizon
Line thickness : 1 to 4
End-of-line labels : toggle currency tags with live values at the right edge of the chart
Day separators : optional dashed verticals at each session boundary
Recommended setup
Apply on a 24-hour symbol (e.g. FX:EURUSD or any major forex pair) on a 15m to 1h timeframe — bond symbols themselves don't trade overnight, so the chart's time axis needs to come from a continuously-quoted instrument. You can hide the underlying price plot via the chart's visibility toggle to keep only the yield indicator on screen.
Notes
DE10Y (German Bund) is used as the EUR proxy — it's the de facto eurozone benchmark used by rates desks globally. Data availability for some symbols depends on your PulseWire plan; if a yield doesn't render, your plan may not include that exchange.
Feedback and suggestions welcome. Indicator
Yield Curve Regime Yield Curve Regime – Pro Edition
=== WHAT IT DOES ===
This indicator classifies the U.S. Treasury yield curve into six canonical
regimes by comparing the current behavior of a short-maturity yield
(default 2Y) and a long-maturity yield (default 10Y) against their values
N bars ago. It paints the chart background (or bar color) with the
regime color and renders a modular on-chart dashboard showing the active
regime, a curve-delta trend arrow, live yield snapshots, a quantitative
strength score, multi-horizon confluence, dwell-time, rolling regime
frequencies, and a transition log.
=== WHY IT IS DIFFERENT ===
Most public yield-curve scripts plot the 10Y-2Y spread or flag a single
inversion event. This script decomposes every curve move into the two
dimensions that actually matter for fixed-income interpretation:
1) Curve direction : did the spread steepen or flatten?
2) Yield direction : did short and long yields rise or fall?
Crossing these dimensions produces six distinct regimes, each with a
different macro meaning. A +10 bp move in the 2s10s spread can be a
"Bull Steepener" (Fed easing – risk-on friendly) or a "Bear Steepener"
(inflation / term-premium driven – risk-off friendly). Flagging only
the spread hides that distinction; the six-regime framework exposes it.
On top of that six-regime base, this indicator adds four analytical
layers that, to the best of our knowledge, are not combined in any
existing public yield-curve script:
• A Z-score-based Strength score (0–100) that quantifies *how
convincing* each regime is instead of treating it as a binary flag.
Calibrated so |Z| = 2.0 (the 95 % confidence band) maps to 100.
• A Multi-Horizon Confluence score (0/3, 1/3, 2/3, 3/3) computed by
running the same regime detection on three independent offsets
(fast / mid / slow) and measuring agreement across horizons.
• A Dwell-Time counter plus a rolling history of the last N regime
transitions, so the viewer can see not just the current regime
but its persistence and transition path.
• A rolling Regime-Frequency statistic showing what percentage of
the last freqLen bars each regime occupied, rendered as an inline
bar and a precise percentage in a dedicated dashboard block.
These are genuine additions to the calculation – not cosmetics.
All of them are visualized in the on-chart dashboard so the reader
can consume the extra information at a glance.
=== THE SIX REGIMES (core logic) ===
Let curve = longRate - shortRate, compared against its value "offset"
bars ago. A regime fires when all three conditions hold simultaneously:
Bull Steepener : curve widens, short falls, long falls
(short falls faster – classic early easing cycle)
Bear Steepener : curve widens, short rises, long rises
(long rises faster – inflation / term premium / supply)
Steepener Twist : curve widens, short falls, long rises
(reflation pivot / policy-vs-inflation divergence)
Bull Flattener : curve narrows, short falls, long falls
(long falls faster – flight to quality / recession bid)
Bear Flattener : curve narrows, short rises, long rises
(short rises faster – aggressive Fed tightening)
Flattener Twist : curve narrows, short rises, long falls
(stagflation signal / tightening into weakness)
Exactly one regime fires per bar (the six conditions are mutually
exclusive by construction). When none triggers, the background stays
clean.
=== HOW TO READ THE DASHBOARD ===
• Header row – ticker + timeframe context.
• Active row – the regime currently firing, tinted in its own
color, with a ▲ / ▼ / ▬ arrow showing the signed
change of the curve over the fast offset window.
• Strength bar – █-fill from 0 to 100 plus the exact score.
• Confluence row – ●●● / ●●○ / ●○○ / ○○○ plus score 0/3 … 3/3.
• Dwell row – bars elapsed inside the current regime.
• Yields block – live short, long, and curve values.
• Legend block – every enabled regime with a colored dot and a
live "● aktiv" / "○ ruhend" status.
• Frequency block – each regime's share of the last freqLen bars,
shown as a 10-step bar plus exact percentage.
• Transitions – a log of the most recent regime changes
(newest first).
• Background/bars – tinted in the active regime's color, optionally
dimmed when Strength is low.
=== HOW TO READ THE ANALYTICAL LAYERS ===
• Strength bar (█████░░░░░ 65 / 100) – the farther right it fills,
the more statistically significant the regime move is relative to
its rolling volatility. Calibrated so a Z-aggregate of 2.0 (roughly
the 95 % band of a normal distribution) maps to a score of 100.
• Confluence (●●○ 2/3) – how many of the three horizons confirm the
fast-horizon regime. 3/3 is a strong multi-timeframe signal; 1/3 is
fast-only; 0/3 means no active regime on any horizon.
• Dwell – bars elapsed inside the current regime. Useful for spotting
exhausted vs. freshly-started regimes.
• Frequency – every regime's rolling share of the freqLen window,
letting you see at a glance which regime has dominated the current
macro cycle.
• Transitions – a compact log of the most recent regime changes.
=== SETTINGS (all inputs are grouped and collapsible) ===
• Symbols & Offset – pick any two yield tickers plus three lookback
windows (fast / mid / slow) for confluence.
• Detection – rolling window for frequency statistics,
maximum stored transitions.
• Display – background vs. bar coloring, transparency,
optional strength-coupled transparency.
• Regime selection– enable/disable any subset of the six regimes.
• Color palette – fully user-overridable regime colors.
• Dashboard – master toggle, compact mode (active regime only),
independent per-section toggles for header,
active+strength, confluence, dwell, yields,
legend, frequency, and transitions, plus
configurable position and text size.
=== HOW TO USE IT ===
• As a macro / risk-regime filter on SPX, NDX, DXY, TLT, HYG, BTC,
gold or any risk-sensitive instrument: the regime in force often
explains why cross-asset correlations are behaving the way they are.
• To disambiguate yield-curve headlines: a "curve is steepening"
print means something very different if it is a Bull Steepener vs.
a Bear Steepener; this indicator answers that question at a glance.
• To study historical regime transitions: switch background mode on
and scroll back through past cycles to see how regimes clustered
around recessions, pivots, and inflation shocks.
• The offset inputs let you tune sensitivity: 1 bar for intraday
regime nowcasting, 5–20 bars for swing and macro framing.
=== NOTES & LIMITATIONS ===
• Defaults to US02Y and US10Y but accepts any two yield symbols –
not hard-coded to U.S. Treasuries; works on Bund, Gilt, JGB curves
if the data is available on your plan.
• Regimes are evaluated on bar-close comparisons and can flip
intrabar on lower timeframes; use daily or weekly for stable macro
readings.
• The Strength score relies on rolling standard deviations over a
50-bar window. On low-liquidity / low-frequency data the σ estimate
can be unstable for the first 50 bars after loading.
• Multi-Horizon Confluence runs the raw regime detection on mid and
slow offsets, so slower horizons can confirm a faster signal even
when their Δcurve is small – this is by design, not a bug.
• The Steepener Twist and Flattener Twist cases are structurally
rarer than the four main regimes and often mark transitions rather
than trends – treat them as context, not as standalone signals.
• This is an analytical / visual tool, not a buy/sell system. It does
not generate entries, exits, or forecasts.
Indicator
Fair Interest Rate Ladder (Auto + Info)Description:
The Fair Interest Rate Ladder indicator is designed to visualize the "fair value" of interest rate instruments (bond futures, rate swaps, etc.), accounting for accrued interest or carry costs. It plots a step-line that converges toward a target base point as the expiration date approaches.
Key Features:
Auto-Spread Detection: The indicator automatically detects if you are using a spread formula (e.g., ZN1!-100). If detected, the anchor point automatically shifts from 100 to 0.
Adjustable Rate & Direction: Easily set the annual percentage rate and choose the price convergence direction (upward or downward toward expiration).
Leap Year Accuracy: Mathematically precise calculations based on the actual number of days in the current year (365 or 366).
Dashboard: A real-time table in the top-right corner displays the exact Fair Value and the countdown of days remaining until expiration.
Expiration Tracking: A distinct red "zero line" and a visual label marking the contract's end date.
How to use:
Input the start and expiration dates of your contract, set the current interest rate, and the indicator will show where the price should theoretically be trading today.
Russian (Русский)
Описание:
Индикатор Fair Interest Rate Ladder предназначен для визуализации «справедливой стоимости» процентных инструментов (фьючерсов на облигации, ставки) с учетом накопленного купона или процентного дохода. Он строит ступенчатую линию, которая стремится к целевой точке (базе) по мере приближения даты экспирации.
Основные возможности:
Автоматика для спредов: Индикатор автоматически определяет, используете ли вы формулу спреда (например, ZN1!-100). В этом случае точка нуля автоматически смещается со 100 на 0.
Гибкая настройка ставки: Возможность задать годовую процентную ставку и направление движения цены (вверх или вниз к экспирации).
Учет високосных лет: Математически точный расчет на базе количества дней в текущем году (365 или 366).
Инфо-панель: В правом верхнем углу отображается таблица с текущим расчетным значением Fair Value и счетчиком дней до экспирации.
Визуализация экспирации: Четкая красная линия «горизонта» и метка даты окончания контракта.
Как использовать:
Введите дату начала и дату экспирации вашего контракта, укажите актуальную ставку, и индикатор покажет, где должна находиться цена сегодня относительно её теоретического идеала. Indicator
Global Bond Yields Monitor [MarktQuant]Global Bond Yields Monitor
The Global Bond Yields Monitor is designed to help users track and compare government bond yields across major economies. It provides an at-a-glance view of short- and long-term interest rates for multiple countries, enabling users to observe shifts in global fixed-income markets.
Key Features:
Multi-Country Coverage: Includes major advanced and emerging economies such as the United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and more.
Multiple Maturities: Displays yields for the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year maturities (20-year for Russia).
Dynamic Yield Data: Plots real-time yields for the selected country directly from PulseWire’s data sources.
Weekly Change Tracking: Calculates and displays the yield change from one week ago ( ) for each maturity.
Table Visualization: Option to display a compact data table showing current yields and weekly changes, color-coded for easier interpretation.
Visual Yield Curve Comparison: Plots yield lines for short- and long-term maturities, with shaded areas between curves for visual clarity.
Customizable Display: Choose table placement and whether to show or hide the weekly change table.
Use Cases
This script is intended for analysts, traders, and investors who want to monitor shifts in sovereign bond markets. Changes in yields can reflect adjustments in monetary policy expectations, inflation outlook, or broader macroeconomic trends.
❗Important Note❗
This indicator is for market monitoring and educational purposes only. It does not generate trading signals, and it should not be interpreted as financial advice. All data is sourced from PulseWire’s available market feeds, and accuracy may depend on the source data. Indicator
OverUnder Yield Spread🗺️ OverUnder is a structural regime visualizer , engineered to diagnose the shape, tone, and trajectory of the yield curve. Rather than signaling trades directly, it informs traders of the world they’re operating in. Yield curve steepening or flattening, normalizing or inverting — each regime reflects a macro pressure zone that impacts duration demand, liquidity conditions, and systemic risk appetite. OverUnder abstracts that complexity into a color-coded compression map, helping traders orient themselves before making risk decisions. Whether you’re in bonds, currencies, crypto, or equities, the regime matters — and OverUnder makes it visible.
🧠 Core Logic
Built to show the slope and intent of a selected rate pair, the OverUnder Yield Spread defaults to 🇺🇸US10Y-US2Y, but can just as easily compare global sovereign curves or even dislocated monetary systems. This value is continuously monitored and passed through a debounce filter to determine whether the curve is:
• Inverted, or
• Steepening
If the curve is flattening below zero: the world is bracing for contraction. Policy lags. Risk appetite deteriorates. Duration gets bid, but only as protection. Stocks and speculative assets suffer, regardless of positioning.
📍 Curve Regimes in Bull and Bear Contexts
• Flattening occurs when the short and long ends compress . In a bull regime, flattening may reflect long-end demand or fading growth expectations. In a bear regime, flattening often precedes or confirms central bank tightening.
• Steepening indicates expanding spread . In a bull context, this may signal healthy risk appetite or early expansion. In a bear or crisis context, it may reflect aggressive front-end cuts and dislocation between short- and long-term expectations.
• If the curve is steepening above zero: the world is rotating into early expansion. Risk assets behave constructively. Bond traders position for normalization. Equities and crypto begin trending higher on rising forward expectations.
🖐️ Dynamically Colored Spread Line Reflects 1 of 4 Regime States
• 🟢 Normal / Steepening — early expansion or reflation
• 🔵 Normal / Flattening — late-cycle or neutral slowdown
• 🟠 Inverted / Steepening — policy reversal or soft landing attempt
• 🔴 Inverted / Flattening — hard contraction, credit stress, policy lag
🍋 The Lemon Label
At every bar, an anchored label floats directly on the spread line. It displays the active regime (in plain English) and the precise spread in percent (or basis points, depending on resolution). Colored lemon yellow, neither green nor red, the label is always legible — a design choice to de-emphasize bias and center the data .
🎨 Fill Zones
These bands offer spatial, persistent views of macro compression or inversion depth.
• Blue fill appears above the zero line in normal (non-inverted) conditions
• Red fill appears below the zero line during inversion
🧪 Sample Reading: 1W chart of TLT
OverUnder reveals a multi-year arc of structural inversion and regime transition. From mid-2021 through late 2023, the spread remains decisively inverted, signaling persistent flattening and credit stress as bond prices trended sharply lower. This prolonged inversion aligns with a high-volatility phase in TLT, marked by lower highs and an accelerating downtrend, confirming policy lag and macro tightening conditions.
As of early 2025, the spread has crossed back above the zero baseline into a “Normal / Steepening” regime (annotated at +0.56%), suggesting a macro inflection point. Price action remains subdued, but the shift in yield structure may foreshadow a change in trend context — particularly if follow-through in steepening persists.
🎭 Different Traders Respond Differently:
• Bond traders monitor slope change to anticipate policy pivots or recession signals.
• Equity traders use regime shifts to time rotations, from growth into defense, or from contraction into reflation.
• Currency traders interpret curve steepening as yield compression or divergence depending on region.
• Crypto traders treat inversion as a liquidity vacuum — and steepening as an early-phase risk unlock.
🛡️ Can It Compare Different Bond Markets?
Yes — with caveats. The indicator can be used to compare distinct sovereign yield instruments, for example:
• 🇫🇷FR10Y vs 🇩🇪DE10Y - France vs Germany
• 🇯🇵JP10Y vs 🇺🇸US10Y - BoJ vs Fed policy curves
However:
🙈 This no longer visualizes the domestic yield curve, but rather the differential between rate expectations across regions
🙉 The interpretation of “inversion” changes — it reflects spread compression across nations , not within a domestic yield structure
🙊 Color regimes should then be viewed as relative rate positioning , not absolute curve health
🙋🏻 Example: OverUnder compares French vs German 10Y yields
1. 🇫🇷 Change the long-duration ticker to FR10Y
2. 🇩🇪 Set the short-duration ticker to DE10Y
3. 🤔 Interpret the result as: “How much higher is France’s long-term borrowing cost vs Germany’s?”
You’ll see steepening when the spread rises (France decoupling), flattening when the spread compresses (convergence), and inversions when Germany yields rise above France’s — historically rare and meaningful.
🧐 Suggested Use
OverUnder is not a signal engine — it’s a context map. Its value comes from situating any trade idea within the prevailing yield regime. Use it before entries, not after them.
• On the 1W timeframe, OverUnder excels as a macro overlay. Yield regime shifts unfold over quarters, not days. Weekly structure smooths out rate volatility and reveals the true curvature of policy response and liquidity pressure. Use this view to orient your portfolio, define directional bias, or confirm long-duration trend turns in assets like TLT, SPX, or BTC.
• On the 1D timeframe, the indicator becomes tactically useful — especially when aligning breakout setups or trend continuations with steepening or flattening transitions. Daily views can also identify early-stage regime cracks that may not yet be visible on the weekly.
• Avoid sub-daily use unless you’re anchoring a thesis already built on higher timeframe structure. The yield curve is a macro construct — it doesn’t oscillate cleanly at intraday speeds. Shorter views may offer clarity during event-driven spikes (like FOMC reactions), but they do not replace weekly context.
Ultimately, OverUnder helps you decide: What kind of world am I trading in? Use it to confirm macro context, avoid fighting the curve, and lean into trades aligned with the broader pressure regime.
Indicator
Indicator
Strategy
Indicator
Bond Yield SpreadThe Bond Yield Spread Script is developed for forex traders, offering an automated tool to calculate the bond yield spread between two countries associated with the forex pair displayed on the chart.
Functionality:
The script starts by identifying the base and quote currencies of the current forex pair and aligns them with their corresponding national bond symbols based on user-selected maturity, with options ranging from 01Y to 30Y. It calculates the yield spread by subtracting the bond yield associated with the quote country from that of the base country, following the formula:
Yield Spread = Yield(Base Country) − Yield(Quote Country)
which is then displayed as a plot line on the chart.
This script relies solely on PulseWire's internal yield symbols, with the following calculation:
"currency" => "first two letters" + maturity
And maturity, in this case, is the value that is configured in the indicator settings, for example:
"EUR" => "EU" + "02Y" will result in EU02Y -> which will be used in the formula, depending on the quote or base currency.
Application in Trading:
This indicator is invaluable for traders employing carry trading strategies or assessing currency strength based on traded interest rates as an indicator. A higher yield spread typically indicates a stronger currency, because the return obtained for holding the currency is higher.
Originality and Practicality:
This script is self-developed, aiming to fill the gap in automatic bond yield comparisons within the PulseWire environment. It is particularly beneficial for traders focusing on macroeconomic factors affecting forex markets. Unlike other scripts, it integrates various bond maturities into one tool, enhancing its utility and application range.
Conclusion:
Designed for traders incorporating macroeconomics in their strategy, this script will be useful to calculate the bond yield differences automatically without having to enter a new formula for every new currency pair.
Compliance and Limitations:
The script complies with PulseWire scripting standards, ensuring no lookahead bias and maintaining real-time data integrity. However, its utility depends on the comprehensive availability of bond yield data within PulseWire. As not all countries issue bonds for each listed maturity, this may limit the script’s application for certain currency pairs or specific maturities. Indicator
Indicator
CE - 42MACRO Fixed Income and Macro This is Part 2 of 2 from the 42MACRO Recreation Series
However, there will be a bonus Indicator coming soon!
The CE - 42MACRO Fixed Income and Macro Table is a next level Macroeconomic and market analysis indicator.
It aims to provide a probabilistic insight into the market realized GRID Macro regimes,
track a multiplex of important Assets, Indices, Bonds and ETF's to derive extra market insights by showing the most important aggregates and their performance over multiple timeframes... and what that might mean for the whole market direction.
For traders and especially investors, the unique functionalities will be of high value.
Quick guide on how to use it:
docs.google.com
WARNING
By the nature of the macro regimes, the outcomes are more accurate over longer Chart Timeframes (Week to Months).
However, it is also a valuable tool to form an advanced,
market realized, short to medium term bias.
NOTE
This Indicator is intended to be used alongside the 1nd part "CE - 42MACRO Equity Factor"
for a more wholistic approach and higher accuracy.
Methodology:
The Equity Factor Table tracks specifically chosen Assets to identify their performance and add the combined performances together to visualize 42MACRO's GRID Equity Model.
For this it uses the below Assets:
Convertibles ( AMEX:CWB )
Leveraged Loans ( AMEX:BKLN )
High Yield Credit ( AMEX:HYG )
Preferreds ( NASDAQ:PFF )
Emerging Market US$ Bonds ( NASDAQ:EMB )
Long Bond ( NASDAQ:TLT )
5-10yr Treasurys ( NASDAQ:IEF )
5-10yr TIPS ( AMEX:TIP )
0-5yr TIPS ( AMEX:STIP )
EM Local Currency Bonds ( AMEX:EMLC )
BDCs ( AMEX:BIZD )
Barclays Agg ( AMEX:AGG )
Investment Grade Credit ( AMEX:LQD )
MBS ( NASDAQ:MBB )
1-3yr Treasurys ( NASDAQ:SHY )
Bitcoin ( AMEX:BITO )
Industrial Metals ( AMEX:DBB )
Commodities ( AMEX:DBC )
Gold ( AMEX:GLD )
Equity Volatility ( AMEX:VIXM )
Interest Rate Volatility ( AMEX:PFIX )
Energy ( AMEX:USO )
Precious Metals ( AMEX:DBP )
Agriculture ( AMEX:DBA )
US Dollar ( AMEX:UUP )
Inverse US Dollar ( AMEX:UDN )
Functionalities:
Fixed Income and Macro Table
Shows relative market Asset performance
Comes with different Calculation options like RoC,
Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Omega ratio and Normalization
Allows for advanced market (health) performance
Provides the calculated, realized GRID market regimes
Informs about "Risk ON" and "Risk OFF" market states
Visuals - for your best experience only use one (+ BarColoring) at a time:
You can visualize all important metrics:
- GRID regimes of the currently chosen calculation type
- Risk On/Risk Off with background colouring and additional +1/-1 values
- a smoother GRID model
- a smoother Risk On/ Risk Off metric
- Barcoloring for enabled metric of the above
If you have more suggestions, please write me
Fixed Income and Macro:
The visualisation of the relative performance of the different assets provides valuable information about the current market environment and the actual market performance.
It furthermore makes it possible to obtain a deeper understanding of how the interconnected market works and makes it simple to identify the actual market direction,
thus also providing all the information to derive overall market health, market strength or weakness.
Utility:
The Fixed Income and Macro Table is divided in 4 Columns which are the GRID regimes:
Economic Growth:
Goldilocks
Reflation
Economic Contraction:
Inflation
Deflation
Top 5 Fixed Income/ Macro Factors:
Are the values green for a specific Column?
If so then the market reflects the corresponding GRID behavior.
Bottom 5 Fixed Income/ Macro Factors:
Are the values red for a specific Column?
If so then the market reflects the corresponding GRID behavior.
So if we have Goldilocks as current regime we would see green values in the Top 5 Goldilocks Cells and red values in the Bottom 5 Goldilocks Cells.
You will find that Reflation will look similar, as it is also a sign of Economic Growth.
Same is the case for the two Contraction regimes.
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This Indicator again is based to a majority on 42MACRO's models.
I only brought them into TV and added things on top of it.
If you have questions or need a more in-depth guide DM me.
GM
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Market Relative Candle Ratio ComparatorIntroducing the Market Relative Candle Ratio Comparator, a visually captivating script that eases the way you compare two financial assets, such as cryptocurrencies and market indices. Leveraging a distinctive calculation method based on percentage changes and their averages, this tool presents a crystal-clear view of how your chosen assets perform in relation to each other, both for individual candles and over a range of previous candles.
Tailoring the script to your preferences is a walk in the park, as it allows you to easily adjust input symbols, moving average lengths, and other parameters to match your analytical approach. The visually arresting column chart it creates employs vivid red and green colors to underscore the differences between the two assets on each candle. Simultaneously, the lower-opacity columns depict the accumulated differences over a specified lookback period. This vibrant blend of colors and opacities results in a dynamic visual experience, enabling you to better grasp market trends relative to each other.
The reverse bool input is a handy feature that lets you invert the effect of the input symbol (DXY by default) in the comparison. When you set the reverse input to true, the script multiplies the calculated DXY percentage change by -1, effectively reversing the comparison. This is particularly useful when examining assets with an inverse relationship or when you'd like to analyze the input symbol's impact in the opposite direction.
For instance, if the input symbol represents a market index that generally moves in the opposite direction of the selected cryptocurrency, enabling the reverse input will help you better visualize and understand the relationship between the two assets by inverting the input symbol's effect on the comparison.
In the accompanying chart, you can observe the comparison of Bitcoin's movement relative to the Dollar, Gold, Bonds, and the S&P 500. The indicator reveals that in the last day, Bitcoin outperformed Bonds, Gold, and the Dollar but not the S&P 500! Indicator
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10-Year Bond Yields (Interest Rate Differential)With this little script, I have attempted to incorporate fundamental data (in this case, 10-year bond yields) into technical analysis . When pairing two currencies, the one with a higher bond interest rate usually appreciates when the interest rate differential widens, or, to use a simple example: in a currency pair A vs. B, with A showing a higher bond yield than B, a widening interest rate gap is likely to help A and create a buying opportunity (shown as a blue square at the bottom of the chart), while the opposite is true when the gap tightens (sell signal, red square).
While long-term investors know about and make use of the importance of bond yield fluctuations, most short-term traders tend to dismiss the idea of using fundamental data, mostly for lack of quantifiability and limited impact in an intraday environment. After extensive backtesting on daily and intraday charts (6-12 hours), however, I realized this indicator still managed to produce useful results (less useful than on monthly and yearly charts, to be fair, but still useful enough), especially when paired with simple price-driven indicators, such as Heikin Ashi or linear regression .
My personal (and thus subjective) thoughts: worth a try. Buy and sell signals frequently contradicted both more popular indicators and my gut feeling and managed to take out losing trades that I had considered trades with a high winning probability. In other words, when the market lures traders into seemingly promising trading decisions, this indicator might give you an early warning, especially when you manage to adjust period and continuity parameters to your trading strategy.
Currency pairs used in this script are all possible combinations of the eight majors. Each security has been assigned a name ("inst01" to "inst08" in the code) and a broker; if you make changes to the code, be sure not to mess with currency and broker names as this would render the entire script useless. Good luck trading, and feel free to suggest improvements! Indicator
Multi Yield CurveAn inversion between the 2 year and 10 year US treasury yield generally means a recession within 2 years. But the yield curve has more to it than that. This script helps analysis of the current and past yield curve (not limited to US treasury) and is very configurable.
"A yield curve is a line that plots yields (interest rates) of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. The slope of the yield curve gives an idea of future interest rate changes and economic activity." (Investopedia)
When the slope is upward (longer maturity bonds have a higher interest rate than shorter maturity bonds), it generally means the economy is doing well and is expanding. When the slope is downward it generally means that there is more downside risk in the future.
The more inverted the curve is, and the more the inversion moves to the front, the more market participants are hedging against downside risk in the future.
The script draws up to 4 moments of a yield curve, which makes it easy to compare the current yield curve with past yield curves. It also draws lines in red when that part of the curve is inverted.
The script draws the lines with proper length between maturity (which most scripts do not) in order to make it more representative of the real maturity duration. The width cannot be scaled because PulseWire does not allow drawing based on pixels.
This script is the only free script at time of writing with proper lengths, showing multiple yield curves, and being able to show yield curves other than the US treasury.
█ CONFIGURATION
(The following can be configured by clicking "Settings" when the script is added to a chart)
By default the script is configured to show the US treasury (government bond) yields of all maturities, but it can be configured for any yield curve.
A ticker represents yield data for a specific maturity of a bond.
To configure different tickers, go to the "TICKERS" section. Tickers in this section must be ordered from low maturity to high maturity.
• Enable: draw the ticker on the chart.
• Ticker: ticker symbol on PulseWire to fetch data for.
• Months: amount of months of bond maturity the ticker represents.
To configure general settings, go to the "GENERAL" section.
• Period: used for calculating how far back to look for data for past yield curve lines. See "Times back" further in this description for more info.
• Min spacing: minimum amount of spacing between labels. Depending on the size of the screen, value labels can overlap. This setting sets how much empty space there must be between labels.
• Value format: how the value at that part of the line should be written on the label. For example, 0.000 means the value will have 3 digits precision.
To configure line settings per yield curve, each has its own "LINE" section with the line number after it.
• Enable: whether to enable drawing of this line.
• Times back: how many times period to go back in time. When period is D, and times value is 2, the line will be of data from 2 days ago.
• Color: color of the line when not inverted.
• Style: style of the line. Possible values: sol, dsh, dot
• Inversion color: color of the line when the curve inverses between the two maturities at that part of the curve.
• Thickness: thickness of the line in pixels.
• Labels: whether to draw value labels above the line. By default, this is only enabled for the first line.
• Label text color: text color of value label.
• Label background color: background color of value label.
To configure the durations axis at the bottom of the chart, go to the "DURATIONS" section.
• Durations: whether to show maturity term duration labels below the chart.
• Offset: amount to offset durations label to be below chart.
█ MISC
Script originally inspired by the US Treasury Yield Curve script by @longfiat but has been completely rewritten and changed. Indicator
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