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Kifier's MFI/STOCH Hidden Divergence/Trend BeaterMFI/STOCH Hidden Divergence/Trend Beater
General Idea:
My premise around this strategy was to make a general strategy for crypto that would help out with finding entry positions for when you’re bullish on a crypto and want to hold on for a while, and at the same time avoiding massive drops. Essentially a way to mix long term/ swing trading; I somewhat achieved my goal however it still requires a lot of logic tuning of the trend averages.
I’m a huge proponent of volume indicators and coupled with average closing price, I think this gives a really good idea of what is happening with the market. It gives an idea on the market and retail investor sentiment. This generally gives you logical entry positions (Although I don’t know how amazing that will work with all cryptos, there’s a fine line between a good strategy and one that just rides bubble market conditions, some would argue that’s still a success and others not)
How it works:
There are many components to the strategy that try to do different things:
First of all there are two types of entries, a MFI hidden divergence with a STOCH check, essentially it will only fire when a divergence is detected while STOCH is above 50%, however this might be changed in the future as due to the volatile nature of cryptos, the STOCH is not too effective. The second entry is a simple MFI/STOCH trend, if STOCH is above 50% and the trend is detected to be in a trending long, once a MFI crossover over the 50% line is detected an entry is placed, this is designed to get out profit where the divergence would otherwise be less accurate during strongly trending conditions.
-MFI is a great indicator, as a volume weighted momentum indicator I find it the most accurate of all, the STOCH however is a great indicator to get a general picture of simple market conditions and can filter out the emotional noise of retail investors.
-VWMA and an SMA (The bottom oscillator) gives an idea of the trend tacking into account of the volume, this serves as a more short term filter of the trend for filters.
-OBV checks are done between the OBV and an EMA of the OBV, to get the idea of a volume weighted long trend, which is important for crypto as there are massive rallies to go up due to retail greed, it’s great to jump onto it at the beginning, and get off before the stack of cards fall apart.
-ATR is used to detect when the market is relatively just ranging or moving sideways, which is where the hidden divergence entries are done, during predictable and profitable market conditions.
- Stop loss is based on the closest support of the entry, this is a nice medium of room to breath but also an actual stop loss.
Future plans and improvements:
Currently there’s a lot I want to improve, mostly the divergence detection and the overall sharpe ratio could be much better, but the current value of 0.5 gives me hope that the strategy is onto something. I also want to change TP from a percentage stop to something more dynamic but that might be too optimistic. The current plan is to paper trade test this either by manual or by a python bot, to see how it performs with some user input as well.
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Supertrend BandsSupertrend Bands
What is the Supertrend indicator?
"The Supertrend indicator is a trend following overlay on your trading chart, much like a moving average, that shows you the current trend direction.
The indicator works well in a trending market but can give false signals when a market is trading in a range.
It uses the ATR (average true range) as part of its calculation which takes into account the volatility of the market. The ATR is adjusted using the multiplier setting which determines how sensitive the indicator is."
"For the basic Supertrend settings, you can adjust period and factor:
- The period setting is the lookback for the ATR calculation
- Factor is the what the ATR is multiplied by to offset the bands from price"
How to use this indicator
This indicator is inspired by a strategy I found. It includes four Supertrend indicators, each with different settings that displays trend strength and support/resistance zones. The default settings are optimal for cryptocurrency but do work quite well for traditional also. I highly recommend you try experimenting with different settings, increasing them to suit the instrument.
The bands are set from low to high, Band 1 being the fastest and Band 4 being the slowest. Band 4 is the one that sets the overall trend so when price is above Band 4, the trend is bullish and vice versa. Trend is strongest when price is above/below Band 1 and gets weaker as it filters through each band. Band 4 provides the strongest support/resistance and if that breaks the trend flips.
In the menu, you will see an option called "Remove Anti Trend?". It is enabled by default and it removes any bearish/resistance bands when the trend is up and any bullish/support bands when the trend is down. When turned off, it will show all Supertrend Bands as they are by default.
Bar Colors
Bar colors are optional and they reflect the current trend strength based on the Supertrend bands.
Alternate ways of using this indicator
You could leave everything as default or you can display individual bands. For instance, because I use many overlay indicators, most of the time I turn off all the bands and only show bar colors:
You can also turn off Bands 1 and 2 and only show the two slowest lengths:
This removes the noise of the two faster Supertrends.
Or just show the two fastest bands:
Any suggestions to improve this indicator are most welcome :) Indicator
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RexDog Average with ATRBam-- look what Rex did. A RexDog Average with ATR bands-- he's going insane. Simple but powerful.
This indicator includes the RexDog average but provides you with the ability to plot (and customize) both above and below ATR calculated bands.
With this indicator you can display all 3 or any combination of the bands: the RexDog Avg, Adding ATR Upper or the Subtracting ATR Below.
To remove a plot or customize color and line size go to the style options.
Before we get detailed with this version you can customize the default average factor of the RexDog Avg (default is 6). More tips on this below.
How This Works
Just as with the RexDog Average we take the 6 ATR data points (200, 100, 50, 24, 9, 5). We then create an average by dividing by 6. But wait there's more...
With this indicator you can customize independently the above and below bands via a float value for precision. 6 is the default (you can customize by increments at 0.25 or input value you like 1-20).
Now this works opposite how you might think but you'll get it once you start changing the numbers. For instance, editing the above band lowering the ATR factor will raise the band.
RexDog Avg Factor
With this release you are able to change the default average factor (6) to anything you want. You'll find though going too high or low from the default won't get the best results. The default increment change is 0.1 but you can enter any float value you like between 1-20.
The Original RexDog Average Overview
Yes, simple—the RexDog Average is a bias moving average indicator. The purpose is to provide the overall momentum bias you should have when trading an instrument. It works across all markets and all timeframes.
Usage:
Price above the RexDog AVG = long momentum bias
Price below the RexDog AVG = short momentum bias
With the ATR addition most likely your usage will be similar to Bollinger Bands. While not the same as in deviations much of the same principles might apply, especially with customization.
*Note: we have banned the word “trend” in the RexDog Trading Method.
Additional Usage Advice:
If price rips through the average your momentum bias should probably change. 80% of the time when price moves through the RexDog Average it will come back and test the area around average within 1-2 bars. 20% of the time it does not. The momentum is so strong in that direction so look for a 50-70% tests of the bar that impulse through the RexDog Average.
If you are using the RexDog Trading Method by default if the price is above the average and you are short you are in a fade trade. The momentum trade would be long. Of course reverse if price is below.
On multiple time frames. Of course, one timeframe can be long bias and a lower timeframe can be short bias. Which one do you use? Both—if your in a short trade using lower timeframe and with the bias of the average your in a momentum trade—but on the higher timeframe your aware you are essential fading the overall momentum.
Background:
Rex and I searched high and low for one simple thing. A moving average (or combination of some) that we could use to form our momentum bias that worked for all timeframes and all markets we trade.
We tried and tested them all. Even went down the path of ribbons and various other types of hybrid EMA /MA derivatives. Nothing had a high enough accuracy or mathematically was reliable that we could say with a high probability that it was on the right side of the momentum.
We almost stopped and landed on using the true and tested 200 MA—but we found through extensive tests that using the 200MA or EMA you’re often late to the party. Look you don’t need to be the first one in the trade but having a heads up sure helps.
To quote one of the best financial movies of the modern era—Margin Call:
“There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat… it sure is a hell of a lot easier to be first”. The RexDog Average used properly enables you to be first or damn near close.
Under the Hood:
This is so simple most reading this will discount it. You might even scoff and berate Rex for wasting your time. But you would be wrong. The RexDog Average has been tested across all markets—FOREX, Crypto, Equities, Futures (even tick charts), and even the Penguin population in Antarctica.
The RexDog Average is an average of 6 simple moving averages: 200, 100, 50, 24, 9, 5.
Yes, that’s it. Indicator
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