External Indicator Analysis Overlay | Buy/Sell | HTF Heikin-AshiThis chart overlay offers multiple candlestick display options. The Regular (Japanese) and the Heikin-Ashi candles are well known. The Mari-Ashi (or Renko) option is something special as it should be timeframe independent, so that sideways action should be represented in one candle. That is difficult to realize as an overlay on the normal candlestick structure, but perhaps the chosen implementation is useful nonetheless. The Velocity option is experimental and is designed to show if the price has accelerated too much in a trend direction. In this case, the highs and lows do not reflect the actual highs and lows, but indicate the overshooting velocity. The opening of the candle also depends on the inherent velocity, but the close of the candle is always the actual close. Anyway, it doesn't look very useful, but the option is there.
All options can be applied to higher timeframes. A usable setting is obtained by disabling only the body of the PulseWire candles in regular mode and enabling this overlay.
A large part of this overlay consists of buy/sell indication settings. For activation it is necessary to select an external source. For example the “Relative Bi-Directional Volatility Range”, specifically the Trend Shift Signal (TSS). This signal switches from 0 to 1, if the trend becomes bullish or from 0 to -1, if the trend becomes bearish. It will be automatically detected without specifying the Indication Type. Alternatively, the Volatility Moving Average (VMA) would meet the requirements for the Indication Type “Buy = positive | Sell = negative”. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also fulfills these conditions. Another example is to use any Moving Average with the Indication Type “Buy = rising | Sell = falling”. In the chart above the Hull Moving Average (HMA) is used. In addition, it is possible to reverse the signal, so that positive signals become negative and vice versa. The signals will be labeled as Buy or Sell on the chart.
The user can analyze whether the provided signals are good or bad indications for going long or short or simply for rebalancing a portfolio. Therefore, it is possible to set a starting point for the analysis and choose a weighting for the investments from 0% to 100% of the portfolio. To avoid sleepless nights, a very reliable (and conservative) setting seems to be Rebalancing with 50% (very similar to the well-known 60/40 portfolio). The calculation results are shown in a table.
As a small addition there is the possibility to label the peaks by setting the distance between the highs/lows. This will make the quality of the buy and sell signals even more clear.
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Bitcoin Limited Growth ModelThe Bitcoin Limeted Growth is a model proposed by QuantMario that offers an alternative approach to estimating Bitcoin's price based on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio. This model takes into account the limitations of the traditional S2F model and introduces refinements to enhance its analysis.
The S2F model is commonly used to analyze Bitcoin's price by considering the scarcity of the asset, measured by the stock (existing supply) relative to the flow (new supply). However, the LGS-S2F Bitcoin Price Formula recognizes the need for improvements and presents an updated perspective on Bitcoin's price dynamics.
Invalidation of the Normal S2F Model:
The normal S2F model has faced criticisms and challenges. One of the limitations is its assumption of a linear relationship between the S2F ratio and Bitcoin's price, overlooking potential nonlinearities and other market dynamics. Additionally, the normal S2F model does not account for external influences, such as market sentiment, regulatory developments, and technological advancements, which can significantly impact Bitcoin's price.
Addressing the Issues:
The LGS-S2F Bitcoin Price Formula introduces refinements to address the limitations of the traditional S2F model. These refinements aim to provide a more comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin's price dynamics:
Nonlinearity: The LGS-S2F model recognizes that the relationship between the S2F ratio and Bitcoin's price may not be linear. It incorporates a logistic growth function that considers the diminishing returns of scarcity and the saturation of market demand.
Data Analysis: The LGS-S2F model employs statistical analysis and data-driven techniques to validate its predictions. It leverages historical data and econometric modeling to support its analysis of Bitcoin's price.
Utility:
The LGS-S2F Bitcoin Price Formula offers insights for traders and investors in the cryptocurrency market. By incorporating a more refined approach to analyzing Bitcoin's price, this model provides an alternative perspective. It allows market participants to consider various factors beyond the S2F ratio alone, potentially aiding in their decision-making processes.
Key Features:
Adjustable Coefficients
Sigma calculation methods: Normal or Stdev
Credit:
The LGS-S2F Bitcoin Price Formula was developed by QuantMario, who has contributed to the field of cryptocurrency analysis through their research and modeling efforts. Indicator
The Z-score The Z-score, also known as the standard score, is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. It's measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. If a Z-score is 0, it indicates that the data point's score is identical to the mean score. Z-scores may be positive or negative, with a positive value indicating the score is above the mean and a negative score indicating it is below the mean.
The concept of Z-score was introduced by statistician Carl Friedrich Gauss as part of his "method of the least squares," which was an important step in the development of the normal distribution and Z-score tables. It's a key concept in statistics and is used in various statistical tests.
In financial analysis, Z-scores are used to determine whether a data point is usual or unusual. You can think of it as a measure of how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. For instance, a Z-score of 1.0 would denote a value that is one standard deviation from the mean. Z-scores are also used to predict probabilities, with Z-scores having a distribution that is expected to be normal.
In trading, a Z-score is used to determine how often a trading system may produce a string of winners or losers. It can help a trader to understand whether the losses or profits they see are something that the system would most likely produce, or if it's a once in a blue moon situation. This helps traders make decisions about when to start or stop a system.
I just wanted to play a bit with the Z-score I guess.
Feel free to share your findings if you discover additional applications for this strategy or identify timeframes where it appears to perform more optimally.
How it works:
This strategy is based on a statistical concept called Z-score, which measures the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean. In other words, it helps determine how unusual or usual a data point is.
In the context of this strategy, Z-score is applied to a 10-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of Heikin-Ashi candlestick close prices. The Z-score is calculated over a look-back period of 25 bars.
The EMA of the Z-score is then calculated over a 20-bar period, and the upper and lower thresholds (bounds for buy and sell signals) are defined using the 90th and 10th percentiles of this EMA score.
Long positions are taken when the Z-score crosses above the lower threshold or crosses above the mid-line (50th percentile). An additional long entry is made when the Z-score crosses above the highest value the EMA has been in the past 100 periods.
Short positions are initiated when the EMA crosses below the upper threshold, lower threshold or the highest value the EMA has been in the past 100 periods.
Positions are closed when opposing entry conditions are met, for example, a long position is closed when the short entry condition is true, and vice versa.
Set your desired start date for the strategy. This can be modified in the timestamp("YYYY MM DD") function at the top of the script. Strategy
MonkeyblackmailThis script consists of several sections. test it and tell me your concerns. a lot of more works will be done
Volume Accumulation : The first part of the script checks for a new 5-minute interval and accumulates the volume of the current interval. It separates the volume into buying volume and selling volume based on whether the closing price is closer to the high or low of the bar.
Volume Normalization and Pressure Calculation : The script then normalizes the volume with a 20-period EMA, and calculates buying pressure, selling pressure, and total pressure. These calculations provide insight into the underlying demand (buying pressure) and supply (selling pressure) conditions in the market.
RSI Calculation and Overbought/Oversold Conditions : The script calculates the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and checks whether it is in an overbought (RSI > 70) or oversold (RSI < 30) state. The RSI is a momentum indicator, providing insights into the speed and change of price movements.
Volume Condition Check and Wondertrend Indicator : The script checks if the volume is high for the past five bars. If it is, it applies the Wondertrend Indicator, which uses a combination of the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) and Keltner Channel to identify potential trends in the market.
Swing High/Low and Fibonacci Retracement : The script identifies swing high and swing low points using a specified pivot length. Then, it draws Fibonacci retracement levels between these swing high and swing low points.
he monkeyblackmail script works well in the 5 minutes chart and combines several elements of technical analysis, including volume analysis, momentum indicators, trend-following indicators, volatility channels, and Fibonacci retracements. It aims to provide a comprehensive view of the market condition, highlighting key levels and potential trends in an easily understandable format. Don’t be too quick to start trading with it, first study how it work and you will blackmail the market. Indicator
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Crypto Correlation MatrixA crypto correlation matrix or table is a tool that displays the correlation between different cryptocurrencies and other financial assets. The matrix provides an overview of the degree to which various cryptocurrencies move in tandem or independently of each other. Each cell represents the correlation between the row and column assets respectively.
The correlation matrix can be useful for traders and investors in several ways:
First, it allows them to identify trends and patterns in the behavior of different cryptocurrencies. By looking at the correlations between different assets, traders can gain insight into the intra-relationships of the crypto market and make more informed trading decisions. For example, if two cryptocurrencies have a high positive correlation, meaning that they tend to move in the same direction, a trader may want to diversify their portfolio by choosing to invest in only one of the two assets.
Additionally, the correlation matrix can help traders and investors to manage risk. By analyzing the correlations between different assets, traders can identify opportunities to hedge their positions or limit their exposure to particular risks. For example, if a trader holds a portfolio of cryptocurrencies that are highly correlated with each other, they may be at greater risk of losses if the market moves against them. By diversifying their portfolio with assets that are less correlated with each other, they can reduce their overall risk.
Some of the unique properties for this specific script are the correlation strength levels in conjunction with the color gradient of cells, intended for clearer readability.
Features:
Supports up to 64 different crypto assets.
Dark/Light mode.
Correlation strength levels and cell coloring.
Adjustable positioning on the chart.
Alerts at the close of a bar. (Daily timeframe or higher recommended)
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Days in rangeThis script is a little widget that I made to do some homework on the VIX.
As you can see in the chart I was analyzing the 2008 market crash and the stats that followed it after until the market started to recover.
You can see that theory in my "Ideas" tab.
This is an interactive set of lines that you can use to count the the bars inside and outside of your chosen range, and the percentage outside that range.
You should initially enter the price range of your product in the menu and set some arbitrary dates that you can easily see on your chart.
Drag and drop the lines around to suit what price and the dates you are analyzing.
The table will display the bar count inside and outside of the range, the total bars, and the percentage outside that range.
I personally used this as a tool to study the overall average of the product, compared with the behavior during major market events.
It is currently my opinion that post 2020 analysis needs to take into account the behavior of any given product prior to 2020 when the
VIX was in its comfort zone. Not to say that a price valuation hasn't been set, but that the movement to that price was outside of "Normal Market Conditions,"
and the time factor to return to that value might be skewed. Other factors would need to be considered at that point pertaining to your specific product or corelating indicator.
I could see this tool being useful to Forex and commodities traders. But that isn't my field so that that for what it is. I do think it would perform best on something that is more
pegged to a price range. I personally would use it on product's, like the VIX, that I use as an indicator product. That is what it was designed for.
But I suppose it could be used for Mean price and time related analysis, maybe with a Vwap, SMA or other breakout style indicators.
Volume analysis might be pretty sporty. Possibly time patterns... the possibilities could be endless. Or... limited.
I am publishing this for my trade group so that it can be tinkered with to find other helpful ways to use it.
If anyone finds something interesting with other indicators, please drop a comment below and I could consider creating a script to integrate with this tool.
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Hikkake Hunter 2.0This script serves as a successor to a previous script I wrote for identifying Hikkakes nearly two years ago.
The old version has been preserved here:
█ OVERVIEW
This script is a rework of an old script that identified the Hikkake candlestick pattern. While this pattern is not usually considered a part of the standard candlestick patterns set, I found a lot of value when finding a solution to identifying it. A Hikkake pattern is a 3-candle pattern where a middle candle is nested in between the range of the prior candle, and a candle that follows has a higher high and a higher low (bearish setup) or a lower high and a lower low (bullish setup). What makes this pattern unique is the "confirmation" status of the pattern; within 3 candles of this pattern's appearance, there must be a candle that closes above the high (bullish setup) or below the low (bearish setup) of the second candle. Additional flexibility has been added which allows the user to specify the number of candles (up to 5) that the pattern may have to confirm after its appearance.
█ CONCEPTS
This script will cover concepts mainly focusing on candlestick analysis, price analysis (with higher timeframes), and statistical analysis. I believe there is also educational value presented with the use of user-defined-types (UDTs) in accomplishing these concepts that I hope others will find useful.
Candlestick Analysis - Identification and confirmation of the patterns in the deprecated script were clunky and inefficient. While the previous script required the use of 6 candles to perform the confirmations of patterns (restricted solely to identifying patterns that confirmed in 3 candles or less), this script only requires 3 candles to identify and process patterns by utilizing a UDT representing a 'pattern object'. An object representing a pattern will be created when it has been identified, and fields within that object will be set for processing by the functions it is passed to. Pattern objects are held by a var array (values within the array persist between bars) and will be removed from this array once they have been confirmed or non-confirmed.
This is a significant deviation from the previous script's methods, as it prevents unnecessary re-evaluations of the confirmation status of patterns (i.e. Hikkakes confirmed on the first candle will no longer need to be checked for confirmations on the second or third; a pitfall of the deprecated version which required multiple booleans tracking prior confirmation statuses). This deviation is also what provides the flexibility in changing the number of candles that can pass before a pattern is deemed non-confirmed.
As multiple patterns can be confirmed simultaneously, this script uses another UDT representing a linked-list reduction of the pattern object used to process it. This liked-list object will then be used for Price Analysis.
Price Analysis - This script employs the use of a UDT which contains all the returns of confirmed patterns. The user specifies how many candles ahead of the confirmed pattern to calculate its return, as well as where this calculation begins. There are two settings: FROM APPEARANCE and FROM CONFIRMATION (default). Price differences are calculated from the open of the candle immediately following the candle which had confirmed the pattern to the close of the candle X candles ahead (default 10). ( SEE FEATURES )
Because of how Pine functions, this calculation necessitates a lookback on prior candles to identify when a pattern had been confirmed. This is accomplished with the following pseudo-code:
if not na(confirmed linked-list )
for all confirmed in list
GET MATRIX PLACEMENT
offset = FROM CONFIRMATION ? 0 : # of candles to confirm
openAtFind = open
percent return = ((close - openAtFind) / openAtFind) * 100
ADD percent return TO UDT IN MATRIX
All return UDTs are held in a matrix which breaks up these patterns into specific groups covered in the next section.
Higher Timeframes - This script makes a request.security call to a higher timeframe in order to identify a price range which breaks up these patterns into groups based on the 'partition' they had appeared in. The default values for this partitioning will break up the chart into three sections: upper, middle, and lower. The upper section represents the highest 20% of the yearly trading range that an asset has experienced. The lower section represents the trading range within a third (33%) of the yearly low. And the middle section represents the yearly high-low range between these two partitions.
The matrix containing all return UDTs will have these returns split up based on the number of candles required to confirm the pattern as well as the partition the pattern had appeared in. The underlying rationale is that patterns may perform better or worse at different parts of an asset's trading range.
Statistical Analysis - Once a pattern has been confirmed, the matrix containing all return UDTs will be queried to check if a 'returnArray' object has been created for that specific pattern. If not, one will be initialized and a confirmed linked-list object will be created that contains information pertinent to the matrix position of this object.
This matrix contains the returns of both the Bullish and Bearish Hikkake patterns, separated by the number of candles needed to confirm them, and by the partitions they had appeared in. For the standard 3 candles to confirm, this means the matrix will contain 18 elements (dependent on the number of candles allowed for confirmations; its size will range from 12 to 30).
When the required number of candles for Price Analysis passes, a percent return is calculated and added to the returnArray contained in the matrix at the location derived from the confirmed linked-list object's values. The return is added, and all values in the returnArray are updated using Pine's built in array.___ functions. This returnArray object contains the array of all returns, its size, its average, the median, the standard deviation of returns, and a separate 3-integer array which holds values that correspond to the types of returns experienced by this pattern (negative, neutral, and positive)*.
After a pattern has been confirmed, this script will place the partition and all of the aforementioned stats values (plus a 95% confidence interval of expected returns) related to that pattern onto the tooltip of the label that identifies it. This allows users to scroll over the label of a confirmed pattern to gauge its prior performance under specific conditions. The percent return of the specific pattern identified will later be placed onto the label tooltip as well. ( SEE LIMITATIONS )
The stats portion of this script also plays a significant role in how patterns are presented when using the Adaptive Coloring mode described in FEATURES .
*These values are incremented based on user-input related to what constitutes a 'negative' or 'positive' return. Default values would place any return by a pattern between -3% and 3% in the 'neutral' category, and values exceeding either end will be placed in the 'negative' or 'positive' categories.
█ FEATURES
This script contains numerous inputs for modifying its behavior and how patterns are presented/processed, separated into 5 groups.
Confirmation Setting - The most important input for this script's functioning. This input is a 'confirm=true' input and must be set by the user before the script is applied to the chart. It sets the number of candles that a pattern has to confirm once it has been identified.
Alert Settings - This group of booleans sets which types of alerts will fire during the scripts execution on the chart. If enabled, the four alerts will trigger when: a pattern has been identified, a pattern has been confirmed, a pattern has been non-confirmed, and show the return for that confirmed pattern in an alert. Because this script uses the 'alert' function and not 'alertcondition', these must be enabled before 'any alert() function call' is set in PulseWire's 'alerts' settings.
Partition Settings - This group of inputs are responsible for creating (and viewing) the partitions that breaks the returns of the patterns identified up into their respective groups. The user may set the resolution to grab the range from, the length back of this resolution the partitions get their values from, the thresholds which breaks the partitions up into their groups, and modify the visibility (if they're shown, the colors, opacity) of these partitions.
Stats Settings - These inputs will drastically alter how patterns are presented and the resulting information derived from them after their appearance. Because of this section's importance, some of these inputs will be described in more detail.
P/L Sample Length - Defines the number of candles after the starting point to grab values from in the % return calculation for that pattern.
P/L Starting Point - Defines the starting point where the P/L calculation will take place. 'FROM APPEARANCE' will set the starting point at the candle immediately following the pattern's appearance. 'FROM CONFIRMATION' will place the starting point immediately following the candle which had confirmed the pattern. ( SEE LIMITATIONS )
Min Returns Needed - Sets how many times a specific pattern must appear (both by number of candles needed to confirm and by partition) before the statistics for that pattern are displayed onto the tooltip (and for gradient coloration in Adaptive Coloring mode).
Enable Adaptive Coloring - Changes the coloration of the patterns based on the bullish/bearishness of the specified Gradient Reference value of that pattern compared to the Return Tolerance values OR the minimum and maximum values of that specified Gradient Reference value contained in the matrix of all returns. This creates a color from a gradient using the user-specified colors and alters how many of the patterns may appear if prior performance is taken into account.
Gradient Reference - Defines which stats measure of returns will be used in the gradient color generation. The two settings are 'AVG' and 'MEDIAN'.
Hard Limit - This boolean sets whether the Return Tolerance values will not be replaced by values that exceed them from the matrix of returns in color gradient generation. This changes the scale of the gradient where any Gradient Reference values of patterns that exceed these tolerances will be colored the full bullish or bearish gradient colors, and anything in between them will be given a color from the gradient.
Visibility Settings - This last section includes all settings associated with the overall visibility of patterns found with this script. This includes the position of the labels and their colors (+ pattern colors without Adaptive Coloring being enabled), and showing patterns that were non-confirmed.
Most of these inputs in the script have these kinds of descriptions to what they do provided by their tooltips.
█ HOW TO USE
I attempted to make this script much easier to use in terms of analyzing the patterns and displaying the information to the user. The previous script would have the user go to the 'data window' side bar on PulseWire to view the returns of a pattern after they had specified which pattern to analyze through the settings, needlessly convoluted. This aim at simplicity was achieved through the use of UDTs and specific code-design.
To use, simply apply the indicator to a chart, set the number of candles (between 2 and 5) for confirming this specific pattern and adjust the many settings described above at your leisure.
█ LIMITATIONS
Disclaimer - This is a tool created with the hopes of helping identify a specific pattern and provide an informative view about the performance of that pattern. Previous performance is not indicative of future results. None of this constitutes any form of financial advice, *use at your own risk*.
Statistical Analysis - This script assumes that all patterns will yield a NORMAL DISTRIBUTION regarding their returns which may not be reflective of reality. I personally have limited experience within the field of statistics apart from a few high school/college courses and make no guarantees that the calculation of the 95% confidence interval is correct. Please review the source code to verify for yourself that this interval calculation is correct (Function Name: f_DisplayStatsOnLabel).
P/L Starting Point - Because of when the object related to the confirmation status of a pattern is created (specifically the linked-list object) setting the 'P/L Starting Point' to 'FROM APPEARANCE' will yield the results of that P/L calculation at the same time as 'FROM CONFIRMATION'.
█ EXAMPLES
Default Settings:
Partition Background (default):
Partition Background (Resolution D : Length 30):
Adaptive Coloration:
Show Non-Confirmed:
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