Stochastic Moving AverageHi all,
This Strategy script combines the power of EMAs along with the Stochastic Oscillator in a trend following / continuation manner, along with some cool functionalities.
I designed this script especially for trading altcoins, but it works just as good on Bitcoin itself and on some Forex pairs.
______ SIGNALS ______
The script has 4 mandatory conditions to unlock a trading signal. Find these conditions for a long trade below (works the exact other way round for shorts)
- Fast EMA must be higher than Slow EMA
- Stochastic K% line must be in oversold territory
- Stochastic K% line must cross over Stochastic D% line
- Price as to close between slow EMA and fast EMA
Once all the conditions are true, a trade will start at the opening of the next
______ SETTINGS ______
- Trade Setup:
Here you can choose to trade only longs or shorts and change your Risk:Reward.
You can also decide to adjust your volume per position according to your risk tolerance. With “% of Equity” your stop loss will always be equal to a fixed percentage of your initial capital (will “compound” overtime) and with “$ Amount” your stop loss will always be 'x' amount of the base currency (ex: USD, will not compound)
Stop Loss:
The ATR is used to create a stop loss that matches current volatility. The multiplier corresponds to how many times the ATR stop losses and take profits will be away from closing price.
- Stochastic:
Here you can find the usual K% & D% length and overbought (OB) and oversold (OS) levels.
The “Stochastic OB/OS lookback” increase the tolerance towards OB/OS territories. It allows to look 'x' bars back for a value of the Stochastic K line to be overbought or oversold when detecting an entry signal.
The “All must be OB/OS” refers to the previous “Stochastic OB/OS lookback” parameter. If this option is ticked, instead of needing only 1 OB/OS value within the lookback period to get a valid signal, now, all bars looked back must be OB/OS.
The color gradient drawn between the fast and slow EMAs is a representation of the Stochastic K% line position. With default setting colors, when fast EMA > slow EMA, gradient will become solid blue when Stochastic is oversold and when slow EMA > fast EMA, gradient will become solid blue when Stochastic is overbought
- EMAs:
Just pick your favorite ones
- Reference Market:
An additional filter to be certain to stay aligned with the current a market index trend (in our case: Bitcoin). If selected reference market (and timeframe) is trading above selected EMA, this strategy will only take long trades (vice-versa for shorts) Because, let’s face it… even if this filter isn’t bulletproof, you know for sure that when Bitcoin tanks, there won’t be many Alts going north simultaneously. Once again, this is a trend following strategy.
A few tips for increased performance: fast EMA and D% Line can be real fast… 😉
As always, my scripts evolve greatly with your ideas and suggestions, keep them coming! I will gladly incorporate more functionalities as I go.
All my script are tradable when published but remain work in progress, looking for further improvements.
Hope you like it!
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BTC and ETH Long strategy - version 2I wrote my first article in May 2020. See below
BTC and ETH Long strategy - version1
After 6 months, it is now time to check the result of my script for the last 6 months.
XBTUSD (4H): 14/05/2020 --> 22/11/2020 = +78% in 4 trades
ETHXBT (4H): 14/05/2020 --> 22/11/2020 = +21% in 9 trades
ETHUSD (4H): 14/05/2020 --> 22/11/2020 = +90% in 6 trades
Using the signals from this strategy to trade manually has shown that this was a bit frustrating because of the low rate of winning trades.
If you have to enter 100 trades and see 75% of them failing and 25% winning, this is frustrating. For sure the strategy makes good money but it is difficult to hold this mentality.
So, I have reviewed and modified it to get a higher winning rate.
After few days of work, tests and validation, I managed to get a wining rate close to 60%.
The key element was also to decrease the number of trades by using a higher time frame. (4H candles instead of 2H candles).
- Entry in position is based on
MACD, EMA (20), SMA (100), SMA (200) moving up
AND EMA (20) > SMA (100)
AND SMA (100) > SMA (200)
- Exit the position if: Stoploss is reached OR EMA (20) crossUnder SMA (100)
The goal of this new script is to be able to follow the signals manually and only make few trades per years.
I have also validated it against some other altcoins where some are giving very good results.
Here are some results for 2020 (from 01/01/2020 until now (22/11/2020). Those results are the one I get when using 4H candles.
ETH/USD: +144% in 8 trades.
BTC/USD: +120% in 7 trades.
ETH/BTC: +33% in 9 trades.
ICX/USD: +123% in 10 trades.
LINK/USD: +155% in 11 trades.
MLN/USD: +388% in 8 trades.
ADA/USD: +180% in 7 trades.
LINK/BTC: +97% in 10 trades.
The best is that above results are without considering compound effect. If you re-invest all gains done in each new trade, this will give you the below results :)
ETH/USD: +189% in 8 trades.
BTC/USD: +260% in 7 trades.
ETH/BTC: +29% in 9 trades.
ICX/USD: +112% in 10 trades.
LINK/USD: +222% in 11 trades.
MLN/USD: +793% in 8 trades.
ADA/USD: +319% in 7 trades.
LINK/BTC: +103% in 10 trades.
As you can see, the results are good and the number of trades for 11 months is not big, which allows the trader to place orders manually.
But still, I'm lazy :), so, I have also coded this strategy in HaasScript language which allows you to automate this strategy using the HaasOnline software specialized in automated crypto trading.
I hope that this strategy will give you ideas or will be the starting point for your own strategy.
Let me know if you need more details.
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Altcoins capitalization histogram [peregringlk]This script superseeds "Other altcoins BTC capitalization histogram". The previous versions was a bit confusing in my opinion and lacked some generalization, so I'm now publishing this improved version.
It shows 6 pieces of info:
- Green columns: BTC price change for that day.
- Red bars: Altcoins capitalization change for that day, measured in bitcoins (altcoins_USD_capitalization / BTCUSD)
- Green/red background: green if that day the USD capitalization change was a gain, and red if it was a loss.
- Green line: accum BTC price change for the selected last days.
- Red line: accum altcoin capitalization change measured in BTC for the selected days.
- Dotted blue sequence: accum altcoin USD capitalization change for the selected days.
The base line of the histogram is 1 instead of 0, because I'm showing the price changes as multipliers (price change rates), so if there have been a +20% market movement, the calculated value will be 1.2, and if there have been a -20% market movement, then the value will be 0.8. 1 means no movement (preserved price/capitalization). Price and capitalization changes will be calculated using candle closes.
About the accumulated price changes, it will calculate the accumulated multiplication of the corresponding price change multipliers. For example, if you have set you want 3 days for the accumulation rates, and the last three days saw a -20%, +10% and +15% price/capitalization changes, the current value for the line will be 0.8*1.1*1.15 = 1.0120, or a +1.2% price change respect to the day before yesterday.
By default, if you are looking any ALTBTC market (for example, ETHBTC), instead of showing the USD and BTC capitalization of all alts, it will take the BTC and USD prices of the current market (the USD price will be calculated as ALTBTC * BTCUSD; and the BTCUSD price will be taken from BITSTAMP, the one with the longest BTC history I know in pulsewire). If you are looking any other markets that is not paired with BTC, then it will take the USD capitalization of all altcoins, and the BTC capitalization will be calculated as altcoins_USD_capitalization / BTCUSD (from BITSTAMP as well).
Also, remember that, in both cases (alts capitalization or price), the graph will consistently respect the following rule:
- btc_usd_price_change * alt/capitalization_btc_price_change = alt_usd_price_change.
That applies for both the green/red bars respect to the background, and the green/red line respect to the blue dotted sequence.
Lastly, you may want to know if, in case btc price and altbtc price or capitalization go in opposite directions, who gain the battle? For example, if BTCUSD moved +20%, and an ALTBTC price moved -20%, the result is a loss, because 1.2*0.8 = 0.96, so the ALTUSD price or capitalization moved -4% (remember that, for preserving the USD value, if today's bitcoin change rate is x, the altbtc change rate must be 1/x; so for a -20% BTCUSD price movement, there must be at least a +25% ALTBTC price change to don't loss USD value, because 1/0.8 = 1.25). The background is what shows you that: if the background is green, it means that for that day there was a total USD gain of value, and when it's red, then it was a loss of USD value.
You can customize the following things:
- Accum change rate interval: the "selected days". By default 7.
- Take alts-capitalization?: By default unmarked. The effect when is unmarked is what I have explained in the previous paragraph. If you mark it, then it will use the USD_capitalization of all alts no matter what market you are looking right now.
- Which capitalization do you want? There are three options, that applies when "Take alts-capitalization?" is marked, or otherwise, when you are not looking a BTC-paired market.
- - - All-alts (default option): take CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 security as reference Alts-capitalization, which represents all altcoins.
- - - Other-alts: take CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS security as reference Alts-capitalization, which represents all altcoin except the 9 most capitalized alts.
- - - Big-alts: take CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 - CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS as reference Alts-capitalization, which represenst only the 9 most capitalized alts.
The idea of this script is:
A) Figuring out what is causing a USD value gain or loss, the alts market movements, or the BTC price change. So you can spot if some altcoin, or all altcoins combined, are gaining or loosing value by themselves or because of bitcoin.
B) Trying to spot or discover some patterns that allows you to identify altseasons. Once an altseason has been developed, the chart will show it in a pretty obvious way (massive red line bells and dotted blue lines with very high values during a period of various weeks). The hard problem is to spot it in advance, and maybe this graph can help.
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Other altcoins BTC capitalization histogram [peregringlk]Introduction
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This study is intented to be used in combination with my other study "Other alts compensated cap". Read its description, in particular, it's rationale, to understand why I have removed the big capitalized altcoins from these studies.
The middle indicator in the image is that other study, while the indicator in the buttom of the image is that one.
It shows, in form of histogram, the BTC capitalization change rate (per candle, using closes) of the "OTHERS" altcoins together with the inverse of the BTCUSD price change rate per candle.
NOTE: I call the change rate to the multiplier factor of price from bar to bar. For example, a change rate of 1.20 means +20% respect to "yesterday", and a change rate of 0.80 means -20%.
The idea is to know what are altcoin markets (against BTC) doing after each BTC price change.
Definitions
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I will use ALT from now one as the name of an index or fictional coin that represents the average price of all other altcoins combined. I'll use then ALTUSD to represent the price against USD of such fictional coin (= the OTHERS capitalization, as if the USD capitalization of altcoins were the USD price of ALT), and ALTBTC to represent the same price but against BTC (calculated by taking ALTUSD/BITSTAMP:BTCUSD; the choosing of BITSTAMP is because it's the market with a longer history in pulsewire).
Since I use the "OTHERS" security, I cannot know the real altcoin index so I can only estimate by using the capitalization. CIX100 could be a solution, but it is too recent in time as to inspect past price actions.
Description
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For example, let's assume BTCUSD decreases by 20% today. It would cause a fall in ALTUSD of 20% (just maths). So, what should it happen in ALTBTC to preserve the original ALTUSD price? People should buy alts in BTC markets by a factor of 1/0.8 = 1.25. Or in other words, unless there are a +25% grow in ALTBTC, ALTUSD would see a decrease in value.
This is what the histogram shows. The red columns shows the ALTBTC change rate per candle, while each green column shows what is the required change rate in ALTBTC required to preserve its ALTUSD value (capitalization). In other words, the green columns are the "targets" to preserve USD capitalization in ALTBTC, while the red histogram shows the actual changes.
Also, it shows two curves. There are just the change rate accumulation during some customizable interval (the same for both lines, and 7 by default; or the "week" for daily candles).
The green line is the accumulated "target" change rate within that period of time (the accumulated product of the last `interval` change rates), and the red line is the actual change rate for the same `interval` candles.
Interpretation
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If red column values are bigger than the green ones (green column is negative, and red column is positive; or both are positives but the red one "put outs", or both are negative but the red column doesn't "put out"), OTHERS USD capitalization has increased.
If red column values are lower than the green ones (green column is positive and red column is negative; or both are positives but the red one doesn't "put out"; or both are negative but the red column "put outs"), OTHERS USD capitalization has decreased.
The same for the continuous lines: if the red line is above the green one, OTHERS USD capitalization has increased during "the past week". Otherwise, it has decreased.
The added value of this indicator is that it allows you to know "why". For example, if a green column is positive, and its corresponding red column is positive as well, but below the green one, the capitalization has decreased but BECAUSE the btc price has fallen, not because there was a sellof in alts. Actually, there was some buys (the ALTBTC price increased); it just it was not enough to counteract the btc fall.
That can be clearly seen in the remarked candle in the plot, the "coronavirus" sellof. The BTCUSD fall was huge (the hugest in BTC history), and the green column is telling you that to preserve the capitalization a lot of buys were required. However, that didn't happen. Actually, the OTHER alts were pretty quiet (the red column is tiny), causing a massive indirect loss of capitalization.
Also, with the curves, you can know if there was a total gainning or loss of capitalization during the past few days or candles. Also you can try to spot the beginning of alts seasons by crosses between red and green lines: if the red lines crosses above the green one (because there was a continuous sequence of red columns above green ones), it means that, potentially, were are at the beginning of an alt season because people are accumulating.
Table of cases
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- if the green column is positive (BTCUSD is down)
- if the red column is positive (ALTBTC is up)
- bigger than the green column: ALTBTC buys are stronger than required by arbitrage and have counteracted and overcome the BTC fall.
- shorter than the green column: there have been some buys but not enough, so the BTCUSD fall has not been fully counteracted.
- if the red column is negative (ALTBTC is down): the loss is double: BTCUSD have lost value + ALTBTC is bleeding.
- If the green column is negative (BTCUSD is up)
- if the red column is negative (ALTBTC is down)
- bigger than the green column: ALTBTC sells are so strong that have counteracted the BTC increase in value, causing a loss of USD value.
- shorter than the green column: there have been sells but overall the ALTUSD price has increased.
- if the red column is positive (ALTBTC is up): the gain is double: BTCUSD has gain value + ALTBTC is also growing.
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