Machine Learning: Logistic RegressionMulti-timeframe Strategy based on Logistic Regression algorithm
Description:
This strategy uses a classic machine learning algorithm that came from statistics - Logistic Regression (LR).
The first and most important thing about logistic regression is that it is not a 'Regression' but a 'Classification' algorithm. The name itself is somewhat misleading. Regression gives a continuous numeric output but most of the time we need the output in classes (i.e. categorical, discrete). For example, we want to classify emails into “spam” or 'not spam', classify treatment into “success” or 'failure', classify statement into “right” or 'wrong', classify election data into 'fraudulent vote' or 'non-fraudulent vote', classify market move into 'long' or 'short' and so on. These are the examples of logistic regression having a binary output (also called dichotomous).
You can also think of logistic regression as a special case of linear regression when the outcome variable is categorical, where we are using log of odds as dependent variable. In simple words, it predicts the probability of occurrence of an event by fitting data to a logit function.
Basically, the theory behind Logistic Regression is very similar to the one from Linear Regression, where we seek to draw a best-fitting line over data points, but in Logistic Regression, we don’t directly fit a straight line to our data like in linear regression. Instead, we fit a S shaped curve, called Sigmoid, to our observations, that best SEPARATES data points. Technically speaking, the main goal of building the model is to find the parameters (weights) using gradient descent.
In this script the LR algorithm is retrained on each new bar trying to classify it into one of the two categories. This is done via the logistic_regression function by updating the weights w in the loop that continues for iterations number of times. In the end the weights are passed through the sigmoid function, yielding a prediction.
Mind that some assets require to modify the script's input parameters. For instance, when used with BTCUSD and USDJPY, the 'Normalization Lookback' parameter should be set down to 4 (2,...,5..), and optionally the 'Use Price Data for Signal Generation?' parameter should be checked. The defaults were tested with EURUSD.
Note: PulseWires's playback feature helps to see this strategy in action.
Warning: Signals ARE repainting.
Style tags: Trend Following, Trend Analysis
Asset class: Equities, Futures, ETFs, Currencies and Commodities
Dataset: FX Minutes/Hours/Days Indicator
Machine Learning: Perceptron-based strategyPerceptron-based strategy
Description:
The Learning Perceptron is the simplest possible artificial neural network (ANN), consisting of just a single neuron and capable of learning a certain class of binary classification problems. The idea behind ANNs is that by selecting good values for the weight parameters (and the bias), the ANN can model the relationships between the inputs and some target.
Generally, ANN neurons receive a number of inputs, weight each of those inputs, sum the weights, and then transform that sum using a special function called an activation function. The output of that activation function is then either used as the prediction (in a single neuron model) or is combined with the outputs of other neurons for further use in more complex models.
The purpose of the activation function is to take the input signal (that’s the weighted sum of the inputs and the bias) and turn it into an output signal. Think of this activation function as firing (activating) the neuron when it returns 1, and doing nothing when it returns 0. This sort of computation is accomplished with a function called step function: f(z) = {1 if z > 0 else 0}. This function then transforms any weighted sum of the inputs and converts it into a binary output (either 1 or 0). The trick to making this useful is finding (learning) a set of weights that lead to good predictions using this activation function.
Training our perceptron is simply a matter of initializing the weights to zero (or random value) and then implementing the perceptron learning rule, which just updates the weights based on the error of each observation with the current weights. This has the effect of moving the classifier’s decision boundary in the direction that would have helped it classify the last observation correctly. This is achieved via a for loop which iterates over each observation, making a prediction of each observation, calculating the error of that prediction and then updating the weights accordingly. In this way, weights are gradually updated until they converge. Each sweep through the training data is called an epoch.
In this script the perceptron is retrained on each new bar trying to classify this bar by drawing the moving average curve above or below the bar.
This script was tested with BTCUSD, USDJPY, and EURUSD.
Note: PulseWires's playback feature helps to see this strategy in action.
Warning: Signals ARE repainting.
Style tags: Trend Following, Trend Analysis
Asset class: Equities, Futures, ETFs, Currencies and Commodities
Dataset: FX Minutes/Hours+/Days Indicator
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Machine Learning: kNN-based StrategykNN-based Strategy (FX and Crypto)
Description:
This strategy uses a classic machine learning algorithm - k Nearest Neighbours (kNN) - to let you find a prediction for the next (tomorrow's, next month's, etc.) market move. Being an unsupervised machine learning algorithm, kNN is one of the most simple learning algorithms.
To do a prediction of the next market move, the kNN algorithm uses the historic data, collected in 3 arrays - feature1, feature2 and directions, - and finds the k-nearest
neighbours of the current indicator(s) values.
The two dimensional kNN algorithm just has a look on what has happened in the past when the two indicators had a similar level. It then looks at the k nearest neighbours,
sees their state and thus classifies the current point.
The kNN algorithm offers a framework to test all kinds of indicators easily to see if they have got any *predictive value*. One can easily add cog, wpr and others.
Note: PulseWires's playback feature helps to see this strategy in action.
Warning: Signals ARE repainting.
Style tags: Trend Following, Trend Analysis
Asset class: Equities, Futures, ETFs, Currencies and Commodities
Dataset: FX Minutes/Hours+++/Days Indicator
Candlesticks ANN for Stock Markets TF : 1WHello, this script consists of training candlesticks with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN).
In addition to the first series, candlesticks' bodies and wicks were also introduced as training inputs.
The inputs are individually trained to find the relationship between the subsequent historical value of all candlestick values 1.(High,Low,Close,Open)
The outputs are adapted to the current values with a simple forecast code.
Once the OHLC value is found, the exponential moving averages of 5 and 20 periods are used.
Reminder : OHLC = (Open + High + Close + Low ) / 4
First version :
Script is designed for S&P 500 Indices,Funds,ETFs, especially S&P 500 Stocks,and for all liquid Stocks all around the World.
NOTE: This script is only suitable for 1W time-frame for Stocks.
The average training error rates are less than 5 per thousand for each candlestick variable. (Average Error < 0.005 )
I've just finished it and haven't tested it in detail.
So let's use it carefully as a supporter.
Best regards !
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ANN GOLD WORLDWIDE This script consists of converting the value of 1 gram and / or 1 ounce of gold according to the national currencies into a system with artificial neural networks.
Why did I feel such a need?
Even though the printed products in the market are digitally circulated, only precious metals are available in full or near full.
Silver is difficult to carry because you have to buy too much because the unit price is low.
Platinum is very difficult to find and used in industry.
Gold is both practical and has less volatile movements, even more balanced than dollars, to preserve the value of money.
Uncertainty and tensions benefit gold.
Obviously this is my own opinion and is not worth the investment advice:
If there is to be an economic crisis, it is obvious that the dollar will rise against the emerging currencies, but I expect a crisis where gold and the dollar will rise together.
The world has been on a mercantilist line more than ever!
Spot gold can be bought from goldsmiths and banks.
I think this command will benefit people everywhere but in economies that are subject to developing currencies.
Now we can look at the details:
All you have to do is load the appropriate chart and select it from the menu.
Thus, the system will adjust itself to that instrument.
MENU and Tickers :
"GOLD" : XAUUSD or GC1! or GOLD (Average error = 0.0128)
"GOLDSILVER" : XAUXAG or GOLDSILVER (Gold Silver Ratio ) ( Average error : 0.01 )
"GOLD CZK " : XAUUSD/USDCZK ( 1 Ounce Gold Czech Koruna) ( Average error = 0.010879 )
"GOLD NZD " : XAUUSD/USDNZD ( 1 Ounce Gold New Zealand Dollar ) (Average error = 0.010736 )
"GOLD EURO" : XAUUSD/USDEUR ( 1 Ounce Gold Euro) ( Average error = 0.010000 )
"GOLD HUF " : XAUUSD/USDHUF ( 1 Ounce Gold Hungarian Forint ) ( Average error = 0.010000 )
"GOLD INR " : XAUUSD/USDINR (1 Ounce Gold Indian Rupee ) (Average error = 0.010458 )
"GOLD DKK" : XAUUSD/USDDKK (1 Ounce Gold Danish Krone) (Average error = 0.010671 )
"GOLD CHF" : XAUUSD/USDCHF (1 Ounce Gold Swiss Franc ) (Average error = 0.010967 )
"GOLD CNH" : XAUUSD/USDCNH(1 Ounce Gold Offshore RMB) (Average error = 0.012017 )
"GOLD MXN" : XAUUSD/USDMXN(1 Ounce Gold Mexican Peso) (Average error = 0.010000 )
"GOLD PLN" : XAUUSD/USDPLN (1 Ounce Gold Polish Zloty ) (Average error = 0.010173 )
"GOLD ZAR" : XAUUSD/USDZAR (1 Ounce Gold South African Rand (Average error = 0.010484 )
"GOLD NOK" : XAUUSD/USDNOK (1 Ounce Gold Norwegian Krone ) (Average error = 0.010842 )
"GOLD TRY" : XAUUSD/USDTRY (1 Ounce Gold Turkish Lira ) (Average error = 0.010000 )
"GOLD THB" : XAUUSD/USDTHB (1 Ounce Gold Thai Baht ) (Average error = 0.011747 )
Important note : XAUUSD/USDCUR = 1 Ounce Gold , XAUUSD/31.1*USDCUR = 1 gram Gold (CUR = Currency )
If you want to physically hold it, look gram value, because as far as I know, all goldsmiths and jewelleries in the world are selling gram gold.
I think that this command is the most useful and the concrete one that I have ever written.
I end my sentences with this anonymous proverb :
"Even if gold falls into the mud, it's still gold ! "
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ANN MACD : 25 IN 1 SCRIPTIn this script, I tried to fit deep learning series to 1 command system up to the maximum point.
After selecting the ticker, select the instrument from the menu and the system will automatically turn on the appropriate ann system.
Listed instruments with alternative tickers and error rates:
WTI : West Texas Intermediate (WTICOUSD , USOIL , CL1! ) Average error : 0.007593
BRENT : Brent Crude Oil (BCOUSD , UKOIL , BB1! ) Average error : 0.006591
GOLD : XAUUSD , GOLD , GC1! Average error : 0.012767
SP500 : S&P 500 Index (SPX500USD , SP1!) Average error : 0.011650
EURUSD : Eurodollar (EURUSD , 6E1! , FCEU1!) Average error : 0.005500
ETHUSD : Ethereum (ETHUSD , ETHUSDT ) Average error : 0.009378
BTCUSD : Bitcoin (BTCUSD , BTCUSDT , XBTUSD , BTC1!) Average error : 0.01050
GBPUSD : British Pound (GBPUSD,6B1! , GBP1!) Average error : 0.009999
USDJPY : US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USDJPY , FCUY1!) Average error : 0.009198
USDCHF : US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USDCHF , FCUF1! ) Average error : 0.009999
USDCAD : Us Dollar / Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) Average error : 0.012162
SOYBNUSD : Soybean (SOYBNUSD , ZS1!) Average error : 0.010000
CORNUSD : Corn (ZC1! ) Average error : 0.007574
NATGASUSD : Natural Gas (NATGASUSD , NG1!) Average error : 0.010000
SUGARUSD : Sugar (SUGARUSD , SB1! ) Average error : 0.011081
WHEATUSD : Wheat (WHEATUSD , ZW1!) Average error : 0.009980
XPTUSD : Platinum (XPTUSD , PL1! ) Average error : 0.009964
XU030 : Borsa Istanbul 30 Futures ( XU030 , XU030D1! ) Average error : 0.010727
VIX : S & P 500 Volatility Index (VX1! , VIX ) Average error : 0.009999
YM : E - Mini Dow Futures (YM1! ) Average error : 0.010819
ES : S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES1! ) Average error : 0.010709
GAZP : Gazprom Futures (GAZP , GZ1! ) Average error : 0.008442
SSE : Shangai Stock Exchange Composite (Index ) ( 000001 ) Average error : 0.011287
XRPUSD : Ripple (XRPUSD , XRPUSDT ) Average error : 0.009803
Note 1 : Australian Dollar (AUDUSD , AUD1! , FCAU1! ) : Instrument has been removed because it has an average error rate of over 0.13.
The average error rate is 0.1850.
I didn't delete it from the menu just because there was so much request,
You can use.
Note 2 : Friends have too many requests, it took me a week in total and 1 other script that I'll share in 2 days.
Reaching these error rates is a very difficult task, and when I keep at a low learning rate, they are trained for a very long time.
If I don't see the error rate at an average low, I increase the layers and go back into a longer process.
It takes me 45 minutes per instrument to command artificial neural networks, so I'll release one more open source, and then we'll be laying 70-80 percent of the world trade volume with artificial neural networks.
Note 3 :
I would like to thank wroclai for helping me with this script.
This script is subject to MIT License on behalf of both of us.
You can review my original idea scripts from my Github page.
You can use it free but if you are going to modify it, just quote this script .
I hope it will help everyone, after 1-2 days I will share another ann script that I think is of the same importance as this, stay tuned.
Regards , Noldo .
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ANN MACD BTC v2.0 This script is the 2nd version of the BTC Deep Learning (ANN) system.
Created with the following indicators and tools:
RSI
MACD
MOM
Bollinger Bands
Guppy Exponential Moving Averages:
(3,5,8,10,12,15,30,35,40,45,50,60)
Note: I was inspired by the CM Guppy Ema script.
Thank you very much to dear wroclai for his great help.
He has been a big help in the deep learning series.
That's why the licenses in this series are for both of us.
I'm sharing these series and thats the first. Stay tuned and regards!
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ANN MACD Future Forecast (SPY 1D) NOTE : Deep learning was conducted in a narrow sample set for testing purposes. So this script is Experimental .
This system is based on the following article and is inspired by an external program:
hackernoon.com
None of the artificial neural networks in Tradingview work and are not based on completely correct logic. Unlike others in this system:
IMPORTANT NOTE: If the tangent activation function is used, the input data must also have tangent values (compared to the previous values of 1 bar).
Inputs were prepared according to this judgment.
1. The tangent function which is the activation function is written correctly. (The tangent function in the article: ActivationFunctionTanh (v) => (1 - exp (-2 * v)) / (1 + exp (-2 * v)))
2. Missing bias parts in the formulas were added.
3. The output function is taken from the next day (historical), so that the next bar can be predicted, which is the truth.
4.The forecast value of the next bar is subtracted from the current bar change and the market direction is determined.
5.When the future forecast and the current close are added together, the resulting data is called seed.
The seed carries data both from the present and from yesterday and from the future.
6.And this seed was subjected to the MACD method.
Thus, due to exponential averages, more importance will be given to recent developments and
The acceleration situations will show us the direction.
However, a short position should be taken for crossover and a long position for crossunder .
Because the predicted values work in reverse.Even though we use the same period (9,12,26) it is much faster!
7. There is no future code that can cause Repaint.
However, the color after closing should be checked.
The system is completely correct.
However, a very narrow sample was selected.
100 data: Tangent diffs ; volume change, bollinger bands values changes (Upband , Midband , Lowband) and LazyBear's Squeeze Momentum Indicator (SQZMOM_LB) change and the next bar data (historical) price change were put into the deep learning test.
IMPORTANT NOTE : The larger the sample set and the more effective dependent variables, the higher the hit rate of the deep learning test!
EDIT : This code is open source under the MIT License. If you have any improvements or corrections to suggest, please send me a pull request via the github repository github.com
Stay tuned. Best regards!
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