OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Updated QSX Crypto Bottom & Top Risk Radar
QSX Crypto Bottom & Top Risk Radar
An open-source risk-state radar for crypto. It answers one question: is the crowd at an exhaustion extreme right now — near a washed-out bottom, or a crowded top? It is a market-context tool, not a trading system, and it does not size positions.
HOW IT WORKS
All logic is visible in the source. Three building blocks:
1. Crowd gauge (the core). Binance BTC perpetual Long/Short Ratio (accounts), pulled via PulseWire's Request library, ranked as a percentile over the past 365 daily bars. The absolute ratio drifts across market regimes, so the radar always reads it relative to its own trailing year:
- below the 10th percentile — the long crowd is washed out (capitulation pressure, historically a bottoming condition);
- above the 80th percentile — longs are crowded;
- above the 90th percentile — crowding is extreme.
2. Chart context filter. A 0-100 trend/volatility gauge built from the SMA200 trend state (price above/below + slope) blended with a normalized ATR(14) volatility rank over the last 100 bars, smoothed over 5 days. Its 3-day direction decides whether conditions are improving or fading. Top-risk states additionally require ADX(14) >= 20, so the radar stays quiet in directionless chop instead of calling tops in flat markets.
3. States. Crowd extremes and chart context combine into: BOTTOM (crowd washed out, or washed out and already recovering), CALM (no extreme), TOP RISK (crowded longs plus fading trend), and HIGH RISK (extreme crowding plus fading trend and momentum). A marker cooldown collapses each episode into sparse markers so one episode prints one readable signal instead of a cluster.
DASHBOARD
The panel shows a 0-100 crowd-exhaustion score (distance from neutral positioning, direction-aware), the current state, a heat bar, a one-line conclusion, and the raw BTC crowd percentile so you can see how close conditions are to the thresholds before anything fires.
HISTORICAL CASE LABELS
"Bottom-to-high +X%" and "Risk-off case -X% DD" labels annotate what actually followed past radar states, measured to the best/worst extreme reached afterwards. They keep updating while an episode is running, so treat them as retrospective illustrations of past cases — not performance claims, probabilities, or expectations.
HOW TO USE IT
- Daily charts only; the radar checks the timeframe and asks you to switch if needed. States are confirmed at the daily close — set alerts to "Once Per Bar Close".
- The crowd gauge always comes from BTC perp Long/Short accounts, even on an altcoin chart; only the trend/volatility context comes from the chart symbol. Read states as BTC-market-wide conditions.
- Typical use: as a regime filter on top of your own process — e.g. tighten risk when TOP/HIGH RISK is active, and treat BOTTOM states as environments where capitulation is historically present, not as automatic buy signals.
LIMITATIONS
- Long/Short Ratio history starts around 2020 and the percentile needs about a year of warm-up, so states begin printing from roughly 2021.
- Bottom states can appear early in extended downtrends and persist while price keeps falling; crowd exhaustion marks conditions, not exact turning points.
- No position sizing, no portfolio advice, no guarantees. Educational information only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile — never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
An open-source risk-state radar for crypto. It answers one question: is the crowd at an exhaustion extreme right now — near a washed-out bottom, or a crowded top? It is a market-context tool, not a trading system, and it does not size positions.
HOW IT WORKS
All logic is visible in the source. Three building blocks:
1. Crowd gauge (the core). Binance BTC perpetual Long/Short Ratio (accounts), pulled via PulseWire's Request library, ranked as a percentile over the past 365 daily bars. The absolute ratio drifts across market regimes, so the radar always reads it relative to its own trailing year:
- below the 10th percentile — the long crowd is washed out (capitulation pressure, historically a bottoming condition);
- above the 80th percentile — longs are crowded;
- above the 90th percentile — crowding is extreme.
2. Chart context filter. A 0-100 trend/volatility gauge built from the SMA200 trend state (price above/below + slope) blended with a normalized ATR(14) volatility rank over the last 100 bars, smoothed over 5 days. Its 3-day direction decides whether conditions are improving or fading. Top-risk states additionally require ADX(14) >= 20, so the radar stays quiet in directionless chop instead of calling tops in flat markets.
3. States. Crowd extremes and chart context combine into: BOTTOM (crowd washed out, or washed out and already recovering), CALM (no extreme), TOP RISK (crowded longs plus fading trend), and HIGH RISK (extreme crowding plus fading trend and momentum). A marker cooldown collapses each episode into sparse markers so one episode prints one readable signal instead of a cluster.
DASHBOARD
The panel shows a 0-100 crowd-exhaustion score (distance from neutral positioning, direction-aware), the current state, a heat bar, a one-line conclusion, and the raw BTC crowd percentile so you can see how close conditions are to the thresholds before anything fires.
HISTORICAL CASE LABELS
"Bottom-to-high +X%" and "Risk-off case -X% DD" labels annotate what actually followed past radar states, measured to the best/worst extreme reached afterwards. They keep updating while an episode is running, so treat them as retrospective illustrations of past cases — not performance claims, probabilities, or expectations.
HOW TO USE IT
- Daily charts only; the radar checks the timeframe and asks you to switch if needed. States are confirmed at the daily close — set alerts to "Once Per Bar Close".
- The crowd gauge always comes from BTC perp Long/Short accounts, even on an altcoin chart; only the trend/volatility context comes from the chart symbol. Read states as BTC-market-wide conditions.
- Typical use: as a regime filter on top of your own process — e.g. tighten risk when TOP/HIGH RISK is active, and treat BOTTOM states as environments where capitulation is historically present, not as automatic buy signals.
LIMITATIONS
- Long/Short Ratio history starts around 2020 and the percentile needs about a year of warm-up, so states begin printing from roughly 2021.
- Bottom states can appear early in extended downtrends and persist while price keeps falling; crowd exhaustion marks conditions, not exact turning points.
- No position sizing, no portfolio advice, no guarantees. Educational information only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile — never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Release Notes
# QSX Crypto Bottom & Top Risk Radar — PulseWire Publish PackVersion: `1.4`
Pine: `pine_scripts/top_bottom/QSX_CRYPTO_BOTTOM_TOP_RISK_RADAR_1_4.pine`
Recommended visibility: `Public + Protected`
## Title
`QSX Crypto Bottom & Top Risk Radar`
## Short Description
Clean crypto crowd-exhaustion dashboard using BTC perp positioning and trend
turns.
## Full Description
### What This Indicator Does
QSX Crypto Bottom & Top Risk Radar is a free risk dashboard for crypto
crowd extremes.
It does not try to predict every candle. It answers one simpler question:
> Is the market near a crowd bottom, a top-risk zone, or neither?
The dashboard shows three simple states:
- **BOTTOM** — crowd positioning is washed out.
- **RECOVERY** — crowd positioning remains washed out and the chart's existing
trend pulse has turned up.
- **TOP RISK** — longs are crowded while the chart is fading.
- **CALM** — no active top/bottom crowd extreme.
It also shows the current BTC crowd percentile, chart ADX, and the source of
the underlying data.
### Core Logic
The radar combines two independent ideas:
1. **BTC perpetual positioning pressure**
BTC long/short account ratio is used as a proxy for retail crowding.
When positioning reaches a 1-year extreme, the market is more likely
to be stretched.
2. **Chart trend turn**
The coin you are viewing must also show trend improvement or trend
decay. This keeps the radar from being a generic BTC-only signal.
In plain English:
- A **BOTTOM** state needs washed-out positioning.
- A **TOP RISK** state needs crowded longs plus trend fading.
- A **CALM** state means neither side is extreme right now.
The exact Pine implementation is protected to preserve QuantScopeX
research IP, but the logic is intentionally disclosed here so users know
what the tool is measuring.
### Data Availability
The public Pine script uses PulseWire's native `BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P`
`Long/Short Ratio Accounts` metric. The chart explicitly shows whether this
feed is ready, warming up its 365-day rank, or unavailable.
The script does not silently replace a missing TV metric with another
exchange or vendor. When the feed is unavailable or its 365-day history is
not ready, it emits no marker or alert. The maintained website daily radar
uses a separate, monitored Coinglass-primary/Binance-fallback data pipeline;
that external source is not callable from Pine.
The panel also displays the viewed chart's trend state and ADX so users can
see why a TOP RISK state is, or is not, eligible.
### Optional Historical Case Labels
The optional Historical case labels setting keeps sparse examples:
- `Bottom-to-high +X%`
- `Risk-off case -X% DD`
These labels are off by default and show what happened after previous radar
states. Turn them on only when reviewing past charts.
They are **case studies**, not promises. They help you visually inspect
whether the radar reacted around meaningful crowd extremes.
### How To Use
Use it on the **daily chart**.
Read the dashboard first:
- **BOTTOM**: the market may be near a washed-out zone. Do not treat it
as an automatic buy signal; use it as a risk-state input.
- **RECOVERY**: the existing Bottom condition has gained trend confirmation.
It is a confirmed state update, not a new entry rule or sizing instruction.
- **TOP RISK**: crowding is elevated while trend is fading. Avoid chasing
and review exposure.
- **CALM**: no active top/bottom extreme.
The panel score is a 0-100 exhaustion gauge:
- Low score = calm / no crowd extreme.
- High score = stronger crowd exhaustion.
### What It Is Not
This script is not:
- a buy/sell signal,
- a position sizing engine,
- a guaranteed top or bottom caller,
- a probability forecast,
- the full QuantScopeX paid overlay.
### Why It Exists
Most crypto top/bottom indicators focus on price overextension alone.
This radar focuses on **crowd exhaustion**:
- retail positioning gets one-sided,
- the chart starts confirming a turn or fade,
- the radar marks the state clearly.
That makes it useful as a free risk layer, especially for traders who
already have their own strategy and want a simple top/bottom risk gauge.
### Scope Boundary
This free radar answers the current crowd-exhaustion risk state. It does not
provide position sizing, a full-market scan, or a portfolio overlay.
## Tags
crypto, bitcoin, top, bottom, risk, long short ratio, crowding,
exhaustion, sentiment, overlay, market structure, risk management
## Screenshot Checklist
Use 3 screenshots when publishing:
1. A clean current dashboard: circle the `BTC crowd`, `Chart`, and feed-status
rows and caption it “crowd + context in one glance”.
2. A `TOP RISK` screenshot with `Crowded long`, fading trend and ADX visible.
3. A `BOTTOM` screenshot with `Washed out` crowd context visible.
Avoid screenshots where the dashboard covers the main candle action.
## What's New in 1.4
- Signal engine unchanged: the established L/S percentile, trend turn, ADX
environment, thresholds, and marker cooldown are preserved.
- Added explicit data-source, crowd-percentile, trend and ADX readouts.
- Added fail-closed feed status: ready, 365-day warm-up, or signal paused.
- Markers and alerts now require the daily candle to be confirmed.
- Added a separate `RECOVERY CONFIRMED` daily-close alert from the existing
Bottom-plus-improving-trend state. Its optional chart marker is off by
default to preserve the sparse chart surface.
- Historical case labels are opt-in rather than enabled by default.
## Internal Notes
- Publish as `Public + Protected`.
- Do not publish full Pine source.
- Description must explain logic clearly enough to avoid black-box
marketing.
- Do not claim win rate, guaranteed prediction, or position advice.
- Before publishing, confirm PulseWire access to
`BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P` Long/Short Ratio Accounts and its 365-day rank history.
Open-source script
In true PulseWire spirit, the creator of this script has made it open-source, so that traders can review and verify its functionality. Kudos to the author! While you can use it for free, remember that republishing the code is subject to our House Rules.
📊 Crypto & Macro Quant Research
🛠️ Free Strategy Scorer: github.com/jianweiweng05/qsx-strategy-score
🌐 Advanced Overlays:
🔬 More Research:
🛠️ Free Strategy Scorer: github.com/jianweiweng05/qsx-strategy-score
🌐 Advanced Overlays:
🔬 More Research:
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by PulseWire. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Open-source script
In true PulseWire spirit, the creator of this script has made it open-source, so that traders can review and verify its functionality. Kudos to the author! While you can use it for free, remember that republishing the code is subject to our House Rules.
📊 Crypto & Macro Quant Research
🛠️ Free Strategy Scorer: github.com/jianweiweng05/qsx-strategy-score
🌐 Advanced Overlays:
🔬 More Research:
🛠️ Free Strategy Scorer: github.com/jianweiweng05/qsx-strategy-score
🌐 Advanced Overlays:
🔬 More Research:
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by PulseWire. Read more in the Terms of Use.