BTC/USDT: Lower High Rejection Signals Potential Retest of MajorHi!
Bitcoin continues to trade within a broad consolidation structure, but recent price action points to growing downside pressure on the lower timeframes.
Resistance Defense: The major resistance zone between $67,000 – $67,200 held firm, capping recent bullish attempts. The subsequent lower high near $65,600 confirms that buyers are struggling to build upward momentum.
Moving Average Loss: BTC has lost support at the 4-hour 100 SMA ($64,188), shifting short-term control back toward the sellers.
Structural Weakness: The prior reaction near $62,700 marked a failed attempt to sustain higher ground, leaving the chart vulnerable to a deeper pullback.
Outlook & Targets:
As long as price trades below $65,600, the path of least resistance remains tilted to the downside. The primary target for this move is the key Supply & Demand (S&D) zone at $59,800 – $60,400, where significant buy liquidity rests. A sustained breakdown below this box would open the door for a deeper liquidity sweep toward the $57,400 – $58,300 level.
Invalidation: A clean breakout and 4H candle close back above $67,600 invalidates the immediate bearish setup. 
Short
Dell May Be Trending HigherDell Technologies had a big surge in the spring, and some traders may see further upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the rally in late May after strong numbers from Lenovo highlighted AI demand for computers. DELL has held a 50 percent retracement of that advance, which may confirm it’s trending higher.
Second, prices have held the rising 50-day simple moving average. That may reflect a positive intermediate-term trend.
Next, Wilder’s relative strength index (RSI) has started rising after a steady decline.
Finally, prices have returned above the 8- and 21-day exponential moving averages. That may reflect a bullish short-term trend.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
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Short
Pre-earnings, SEOnline retail is a steady leader, with different ETFs registering as a steady leader for 5-7 weeks now. It's a mature theme, and sometimes that's OK. I've seen mature leaders last for longer.
We've also see individual leadership in names like AMZN, BABA, and GCT.
Those last two are important because they've benefitted from China strength. Today, we see five weeks steady leadership from Singapore names.
Earnings is tomorrow, so it's an intriguing time to watch it.
Here's the sequence:
This name formed a length base, consolidating since earnings in March until a breakout on July 1
SE met resistance right at the 200-day moving average
Then price retested the consolidation box and bounced
Price recovered the short-term moving averages in white and green, and finally broke out from the 200-day
Price is now right at previous resistance, and with earnings on tap
Trading this here could be risky, but fun too.
Semis are improving and LRCX is an early watch candidateThis idea is a play on improvement in semis. I'm not going to pretend to understand exactly what Lam Research does, but they provide semiconductor equipment. Their website has all kinds of cool machines that chipmakers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) use to build chips. It's a pick and shovel play in semis.
Chip stocks have been the story of 2026 and they became overbought and crashed hard in July. Lam fell nearly 42% last month. Right now, my internal dashboard shows that chips are recovering and this relative strength could indicate an early turnaround. And with earnings out of the way, Lam doesn't have major gap risk from that.
But I reiterate: It's early in the turnaround and unconfirmed, and as of today, chips are still lagging with selective improvement.
Stocks always pull back to the 200-day moving average and Lam came within striking distance of it (red line in chart) before recovering. I do like to see overbought conditions wash out and reset, so it has that going.
In its turnaround, LRCX has recovered the short-term moving averages in the 10 day sma and 21 day ema. A necessity for early trend development. it's still under the 50 day though (almost 9% away from it).
The usual stochastic and MACD checks are just so-so right now. Stochastics on the MACD did not reach the full oversold so there's a case to be made for waiting for that to happen though it doesn't need to. For MACD weekly, there's not much to offer as it reflects the recent pullback.
All in all, this is an early watch. Entry points could be on the breakout from the blue line or on breakout and flag. I will update if I see anything.
Long
65K — one more attack!Hi traders!🌴☀️
The 65–65.5K zone, first identified in the 20s of June, has successfully continued to cap every attempt by the bulls to establish a foothold above it throughout July and the first 11 days of August❗️
Every approach to the zone has ended with an aggressive pullback, while every breakout has been followed by an even more aggressive sell-off🪓🔪⚰️
At this point, the strength of the 65K level is no longer in question. What matters much more is the depth of the pullback from it or the structure of the breakout when it finally happens.
So far, the support provided by the moving averages and the local 64K level has prevented the correction from accelerating, which means we are likely to see another attempt at 65K.
Given the above, the bullish scenario remains unchanged:
65K is the key level🏋🏽✊🏼
🦬🚀 “The bullish scenario, with upside targets at 67K and 67.6K, will only come back into play if Bitcoin manages to reclaim 65K and, more importantly, hold above it.”
The bearish scenario has been adjusted.
🐻🪓A break below the 1H/4H EMA 100 and EMA 200 cluster around 64.2–64.4K would likely accelerate the move toward the next major support level at 62.5K.
Peace!🌄 
Long
Long
Australian Dollar Rises as RBA Keeps Hike Risk AliveAUD/USD moved higher on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.35% and kept a hawkish bias in place. The pause was expected, but the message was not dovish. Governor Michele Bullock made clear that another hike remains possible if inflation does not keep moving in the right direction. That gave the Australian Dollar support, with traders treating the decision as a hold with teeth rather than a step toward easing.
The U.S. side is now the next test. The U.S. Dollar was steady as markets waited for July CPI, with Fed hike odds cooling after the weaker jobs report but not disappearing. Oil remains a complication after renewed Strait of Hormuz tension, because higher energy prices can keep inflation risk alive for both the Fed and the RBA. For AUD/USD, the setup is straightforward: the Australian Dollar has support from an RBA that is still worried about inflation, but follow-through depends on whether U.S. CPI gives the U.S. Dollar a fresh reason to push back.
AUD/USD is in better shape than it was in late-June and early-July. The pair has rebuilt from the 0.6880 area, reclaimed the 0.7000 handle, and is now holding above the moving-average cluster. That is constructive. The rising trendline from the late-2025 low is still intact, and the July pullback held well above that longer-term support. The chart has repaired enough to shift the short-term bias from “sell the bounce” to “respect the recovery.”
The issue is overhead supply. Price is trading near 0.7065, right into the lower end of the old breakdown zone from June. The next real test is 0.7100/30. That area is where prior support turned into resistance, and it is where the Australian Dollar needs follow-through to prove this is more than a relief rally. Momentum is supportive but not explosive. MACD has turned higher and is back above the zero line, while Slow Stochastics are near the upper end of the range and starting to flatten. That says buyers have control, but the easiest part of the bounce may have already happened. AbbVie Pulls Back After Breaking OutAbbVie broke out to new highs in June and now it’s pulled back.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the October 1 high of $244.71. ABBV bounced at that level in mid-July and has recently held it again. Has old resistance become new support?
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA last month. That may suggest its long-term trend has turned positive again.
Third, prices are trying to stabilize near the rising 50-day SMA. That may be consistent with intermediate-term bullishness.
Finally, stochastics are turning up from an oversold condition.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. Learn more here about PulseWire’s Broker of the Year!
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means. 
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Short
Can Bulls Finally Reclaim 65K?Hi traders!☀️
Bitcoin continues to press against the 65K level from below, with multiple attempts to break above it. The situation on the chart, which I discussed in detail on Friday, is still playing out. So far, however, Bitcoin has failed to establish itself above 65K.
At the same time, price is not dropping back toward the moving averages on either the 1H or 4H timeframes, which remains a positive signal for the bulls🛡️🛡️🛡️
As a reminder:
“The cluster of EMA 100 and 200 on the 1H and 4H initially acted as resistance during the move up from 62,500. However, now that price has confidently moved above them, they have started to act as solid support.” 🏋🏽
The main scenarios remain unchanged.
The 65K level remains the key:
🦬🚀 “The bullish scenario, with upside targets at 67K and 67.6K, will only come back into play if Bitcoin manages to reclaim 65K and, more importantly, hold above it.”
🐻🪓The bearish scenario comes into play if Bitcoin gets rejected from 65K. ”Such a rejection could send price first toward the cluster of moving averages around 64K. If that area fails to hold, the next major support remains at 62,500.”
Peace! 🌄 ARM: The AI Architecture Breakout📋 ARM (Arm Holdings plc)
Price: ~$281 | August 8, 2026
Just a month ago, it looked as though the ARM story had ended in a sharp disappointment — the stock had fallen 46% from its June highs to around $199. However, the company’s July 29 earnings report was strong enough to reverse almost the entire decline within days, with the stock surging 18–24%.
The question now is no longer whether the business is growing — it clearly is, and at a rapid pace — but whether that growth is sufficient to justify a P/E multiple of roughly 250x, especially with an FTC investigation and the long-running dispute surrounding its Chinese subsidiary still hanging over the company.
🏛️ FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
🏢 Business Overview
ARM does not manufacture chips itself. Instead, it licenses processor architecture and intellectual property (IP) that underpin the vast majority of smartphones worldwide. The company generates revenue primarily through royalties — a percentage of each chip sold — as well as licensing fees paid by customers for the right to use its architecture.
One of the most important recent shifts has been the migration of customers from older architectures to Armv9 and Compute Subsystems (CSS), which carry significantly higher pricing and structurally improve ARM’s margins.
On top of this, the company has launched a new business initiative: its own AGI CPU for AI data centers. The order pipeline for this product has already exceeded $2 billion.
This potentially changes ARM’s positioning fundamentally. The company is moving from being a pure IP licensor toward becoming a player that competes with some of its own chipmaking customers. This shift is also one of the reasons behind increased regulatory scrutiny.
💰 Financial Position
ARM’s Q1 FY2027 results, released on July 29, were record-breaking. Revenue reached $1.29 billion, up 22% year over year and above the $1.27 billion consensus estimate.
Royalty revenue from the data-center segment doubled, while total royalty revenue increased 22% to $715 million.
For FY2026 as a whole, revenue reached $4.92 billion, up 23% year over year, while net income increased 14% to $904 million. Operating margin declined slightly to 18% from 20% a year earlier, primarily due to higher R&D spending and investment in the AGI business.
Full-year EPS stood at approximately $0.85, while consensus estimates for the following year are around $0.92.
ARM also has a very strong balance sheet. The company has essentially no meaningful debt burden and holds nearly $4 billion in net cash. There are currently no significant liquidity or solvency concerns.
Traditional valuation metrics such as P/E are difficult to apply here. At a share price of around $281, the trailing P/E is approximately 245–285x, depending on the data source.
This means that a substantial portion of ARM’s current valuation is based not on current earnings, but on expectations for AI data centers and the AGI CPU opportunity several years into the future — essentially a classic "paying for the future" story.
📰 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
Record Earnings and Trend Reversal
Following the 46% decline from its June highs, ARM surged above $280 on August 4 after reporting strong results and raising its guidance.
On August 6, the stock gained another 5%, as investors continued to respond positively to strong demand for the v9 architecture and Neoverse chips across cloud and AI infrastructure.
Diverging Analyst Views
Wall Street’s reaction to the earnings report has been far from unanimous.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target from $202 to $212 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating. RBC Capital, on the other hand, cut its target from $475 to $340. New Street initiated coverage with a Buy rating.
The wide range of opinions highlights how difficult it is to determine what ARM is actually worth following its recent rally.
Negative Developments
ARM currently faces three separate sources of legal and regulatory pressure.
First, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has opened an investigation into ARM over potential anticompetitive behavior. Regulators are examining the company’s licensing model and whether its move into its own AGI CPU could allow it to restrict competitors’ access to its architecture.
Second, there is the long-running dispute surrounding Arm China. Former CEO Allen Wu has refused to leave his position and continues to litigate against executives appointed to replace him. This creates additional corporate-governance uncertainty in one of ARM’s most strategically important markets.
Third, ARM previously lost its legal battle against Qualcomm over the Nuvia licensing dispute. The ruling weakened ARM’s position regarding its licensing model and was followed by antitrust complaints from Qualcomm in multiple jurisdictions, including a regulatory inspection of ARM’s Seoul office by Korean authorities.
⚖️ VALUATION
The market is currently pricing in the assumption that ARM will continue aggressively increasing royalty revenue through the migration of customers toward v9 and CSS, while its AGI CPU becomes a meaningful long-term business rather than simply an announced product.
That is a demanding set of assumptions.
Some analysts, including those cited by Seeking Alpha, estimate fair value at around $240, below the current market price. Simply Wall St’s valuation is even lower, at approximately $167.
At the same time, ARM is growing faster than the broader semiconductor sector, with projected revenue growth of roughly 27% annually versus around 22% for the semiconductor industry. This faster growth provides some justification for ARM’s premium valuation.
The average analyst price target is approximately $287, implying only around 2–4% upside from the current price. However, the range is extremely wide, with estimates spanning roughly $125 to $500.
Such a wide range does not represent a strong consensus — it shows that the market remains deeply divided over how much ARM’s future growth is worth today.
Verdict
ARM is objectively expensive by conventional valuation standards. The premium reflects the company’s AI optionality, strategic position in processor architecture, and expectations for continued royalty growth rather than its current earnings power.
At current levels, ARM cannot be described as conventionally undervalued. Instead, the stock represents a "growth continuation" bet — investors are effectively betting that ARM’s growth will remain stronger and last longer than the market currently expects.
💵 DIVIDENDS
ARM does not pay a dividend and has never paid a dividend as a Nasdaq-listed ADR.
For a growth company at this stage, reinvesting available capital into R&D, AI infrastructure, and the AGI initiative is a reasonable capital-allocation strategy.
⚠️ TOP 3 RISKS
1. FTC Investigation
U.S. regulators are investigating whether ARM’s business practices could restrict competitors’ access to its architecture following the company’s entry into the AGI CPU market.
This risk is particularly important because it directly affects the licensing model that underpins ARM’s royalty economics.
2. Arm China Governance Dispute
The ongoing conflict involving former Arm China CEO Allen Wu creates additional corporate-governance uncertainty.
China remains one of the most important markets for semiconductor IP licensing, meaning any deterioration in ARM’s ability to effectively manage its Chinese operations could create a material risk to future revenue.
3. Elevated Valuation and AI Cyclicality
With a P/E of roughly 250–285x, ARM is highly sensitive to any disappointment surrounding AI investment, data-center spending, or future earnings growth.
A slowdown in AI capital expenditure could trigger a much sharper multiple contraction than in many other semiconductor stocks. This risk was already demonstrated during the June–July sell-off, when ARM lost approximately 46% before rebounding sharply following its latest earnings report.
📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On the daily timeframe, ARM has formed a falling wedge pattern as the stock declined into a broader consolidation zone.
During this move, the price tested both the 150-day and 200-day SMAs, from which it rebounded strongly. The reaction from these major moving averages is technically constructive and suggests that the longer-term trend structure remains intact.
The current setup provides a potential entry around the gap and Point of Control (POC) zone, which is expected to act as a key support area. If the price successfully holds this zone, it could provide the basis for another upward move.
The primary upside targets are:
Target 1: $339.40
Target 2: $452.60
The RSI remains neutral, leaving room for further upside without the stock currently being in an obviously overbought condition.
At the same time, the ADX is beginning to strengthen, indicating that directional momentum may be developing and that the market could be transitioning from consolidation into a more defined trend.
Trade Invalidation
The bullish setup is invalidated if ARM breaks below and establishes itself beneath the 200-day SMA.
A sustained close below the 200 SMA would weaken the current bullish structure and invalidate the thesis for the anticipated upward move.
🧠 OVERALL VIEW
ARM remains one of the most strategically important companies in the semiconductor ecosystem, with strong exposure to smartphones, cloud computing, AI infrastructure, and the broader transition toward Arm-based computing.
Long
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