BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin ?
Bitcoin continues to trade within a broader bearish structure, with price still below the well-defined descending trendline.
However, over the past two months, price has mainly been moving within a trading range, experiencing several back-and-forth swings. After reaching the $58,000 area, Bitcoin found support and rebounded from this zone.
At the moment, this corrective move is expected to continue toward the key resistance zone highlighted on the chart. This area contains several important technical resistance factors, with the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels located within the zone and the descending trendline also converging around the same area.
This technical confluence could turn the zone into a strong supply and resistance zone. As Bitcoin reaches this zone, we expect a rejection and the development of the next bearish leg, potentially pushing price toward the $48,000 target area.
As long as price fails to break and hold above the descending trendline and the key resistance zone, the bearish scenario remains the dominant outlook.
If you found this analysis helpful, please support it with a like and share your thoughts in the comments! Good luck with your trades!❤️
Beyond Technical Analysis
EURUSD Weekly CLS Range - Model 1Hi Friends, New CLS Range has been created and Im looking for short Model 1 trade setup. As always after the manipulation in to the Key Level, below the CLS range and reaction, we need to see a confirmation switch from the manipulation phase - CIOD (change in order flow) in the the expansion.
⏳ Stay patient and enter only after candle close.
🎯 Target: 50% of the CLS range.
🎯 COT data shows how big players added shorts recently on the highs
🎥 CLS Model 1 Video Explanation 📚 Bearish CLS Strategy Structure ⚠️ Risk Control is Key to Long Term Success
📍 Always place a proper stop loss
📍 Manage your risk per trade
📍 Stay disciplined & avoid emotional trading
📍Take the Trade only if you understand logic behind it
📍 Protect Capital First
🚀Boost | 🔁 Share | 💬 Comment | ✅Follow for more CLS setups
Adapt useful, Reject useless and add what is specifically yours.
David Perk
🚀Boost | 🔁 Share | 💬 Comment | ✅Follow for more Education
GOLD Daily CLS Model 2 nested in the Weekly Model 1Hi Friends, New CLS Range has been created and Im looking for short Model 1 trade setup. As always after the manipulation in to the Key Level, below the CLS range and reaction, we need to see a confirmation switch from the manipulation phase - CIOD (change in order flow) in the the expansion
⏳ Stay patient and enter only after candle close.
🎯 Target: 50% of the CLS range.
🎥 CLS Model 1 Video Explanation 📚 Bearish CLS Strategy Structure ⚠️ Risk Control is Key to Long Term Success
📍 Always place a proper stop loss
📍 Manage your risk per trade
📍 Stay disciplined & avoid emotional trading
📍Take the Trade only if you understand logic behind it
📍 Protect Capital First
🚀Boost | 🔁 Share | 💬 Comment | ✅Follow for more CLS setups
Adapt useful, Reject useless and add what is specifically yours.
David Perk
🚀Boost | 🔁 Share | 💬 Comment | ✅Follow for more Education
Market Concepts · Lesson 08 — Structure Quality: Strong vs WeakLesson 8 - Structure Quality: Strong vs Weak Levels and Trend-Flip Signals
Difficulty: Advanced
Not every high and low on the chart carries the same weight. Some are landmarks the market defends fiercely. Others are just noise waiting to be swept. Learning to tell them apart is what turns a basic understanding of structure into a real trading edge.
🔵 WHY NOT ALL HIGHS AND LOWS ARE EQUAL
Every trader learns early on to mark swing highs and swing lows on their chart. What most traders never learn is that these levels don't all mean the same thing.
Some swing points get respected repeatedly, holding as support or resistance for weeks. Others get taken out within hours, barely leaving a trace. The difference between them isn't random — it comes down to what the market did around that level when it was forming, and what kind of protection it has built around it since.
Understanding this difference lets you focus your attention on the levels that actually matter, and skip the ones that are more likely to fail.
🔵 WHAT MAKES A HIGH OR LOW "STRONG"
A strong high or low is one the market has structurally defended. Here's what that looks like in practice:
- A strong high sits at the top of a decisive rejection — price approached the level, got firmly rejected, and the market never traded above it again since. Below it, there's a clear structural low that hasn't been broken
- A strong low is the mirror image — a decisive rejection at the bottom, followed by a clear structural high above it that's still holding
The key word is "protected." A strong level is one that has structure guarding it from being invalidated. If the market has to break through several layers of price action just to challenge it, that level is meaningful.
🔵 WHAT MAKES A HIGH OR LOW "WEAK"
A weak high or low is one that has already been technically compromised. The market hasn't respected the structure around it — either the previous structural low was broken before this high was made, or price is already trading in a way that suggests the level is vulnerable.
Weak highs and lows often form when:
- The market makes a new high, but the previous higher-low was already broken beforehand
- The rejection at the level is shallow or half-hearted — no strong candle, no follow-through
- Price is drifting toward the level rather than being decisively rejected from it
These levels are structurally exposed. They're much more likely to be swept for liquidity or taken out entirely, because there's nothing meaningful holding them up.
🔵 HOW STRONG AND WEAK LEVELS BEHAVE DIFFERENTLY
The practical difference between the two shows up in how price interacts with them:
Strong levels tend to produce clean, decisive reactions on the first test. Price approaches, gets rejected, and moves away with real momentum. Here's what that looks like when a strong high holds firm on its first test:
While the strong high is being respected, the weak low sitting below has none of the same protection — the market has already given clear signs it's structurally exposed:
And this is exactly what tends to happen next — the weak level gets swept for liquidity, price wicks below it to grab stops, and then the character of the move shifts:
Recognizing which type of level you're looking at changes how you approach it: do you fade the level (strong), or do you wait for the sweep and then trade the reversal (weak)?
🔵 TREND-FLIP SIGNALS: WHEN THE STORY CHANGES
The most important use of strong and weak level classification is spotting genuine trend reversals in real time.
Here's the sequence to watch for:
- A trend has been printing strong highs and lows in one direction — real conviction, protected structure
- Then a shift happens: the market prints a level in the opposite direction that gets protected. A new strong low appears in what was a downtrend, or a new strong high forms in what was an uptrend
- When that new level in the opposite direction becomes structurally defended, the trend hasn't just paused — the character of the market has genuinely flipped
This is different from just spotting a ChoCH. A ChoCH tells you something shifted. Watching for a new strong level in the opposite direction tells you whether that shift has real weight behind it.
🔵 COMMON MISTAKES TO AVOID
- Treating every swing high or low as equally important without checking whether structure protects it
- Fading weak levels expecting them to hold, when they were structurally exposed from the start
- Sweeping strong levels expecting a reversal, when the level was protected enough that a real break signals continuation, not reversal
- Ignoring the difference between "the market flipped" and "the market paused" — a ChoCH alone is a pause; a new strong level in the opposite direction is a real flip
🐳 PRO TIPS
- The cleanest reversal setups tend to combine a fresh strong level in the opposite direction with a higher-timeframe zone at the same area — structure and location aligning
- Weak highs and lows are often exactly where liquidity sits, which is useful when planning where the next sweep might happen
- Strong levels on higher timeframes carry disproportionate weight compared to strong levels on lower timeframes — a strong daily high is much more meaningful than a strong 15m high
- When a level classified as strong finally breaks, the trade often isn't the break itself, but the retest of that broken level as it flips roles
Being able to read the difference between strong and weak structure is one of the deeper skills in market structure, and it takes time to build the eye for it.
Market Concepts — All Lessons
Lesson 01 — What Order Blocks Are
Lesson 02 — Zone Strength Isn't About Size
Lesson 03 — Entering Trades With Order Blocks
Lesson 04 — Old Order Blocks As New S/R
Lesson 05 — Breaker Blocks
Lesson 06 — HTF Blocks With LTF Entries
Lesson 07 — BOS vs Change of Character
Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳
Never Trust Crypto Pumps Until You Check These SignalsEveryone wants to buy when the candles turn green, but what if that pump is exactly where the real danger begins?
Is this the start of a powerful new trend, or are late buyers simply providing the exit liquidity?
Short-Term BTC Analysis
Bitcoin has been ranging for several weeks and has now reached a very important weekly resistance. If it fails to break above this level, I expect at least an 8% drop, with a target of $58,000.
When a strong crypto pump starts, most traders only see the green candles and immediately think about buying, but the real question is whether the move is backed by real buying pressure or simply driven by hype and FOMO . Before rushing into a trade, check the volume behind the move, the price location, and whether the previous market structure has actually changed. If price moves up quickly while volume stays weak, the real strength behind the pump may be much lower than it looks . On PulseWire, start by marking the key support and resistance levels, then watch the trendline, price action, and volume together. A strong pump is not automatically a strong trade, especially when price is already close to a major resistance. The goal is not to catch every pump, but to understand whether you are buying real strength or simply chasing a green candle that has already made most of its move.
Volume is one of the most useful tools for checking a pump because it can show whether real market participation is behind the move, while RSI can help you judge momentum and see when the move may be getting overheated . Fibonacci Retracement can also help after a strong move by showing possible pullback areas, allowing traders to wait for a better setup instead of chasing price higher. When an important resistance level breaks, do not immediately assume the breakout is real; watch whether price can stay above that level and turn the old resistance into new support . Combining price action, volume, and a successful retest can give you much more information than simply looking at one large green candle. Long upper wicks, weakening momentum, falling volume, or a quick move back below broken resistance can all be warning signs of a possible fakeout . No indicator can predict the future alone, but several signals confirming the same idea can make your decision much stronger.
The most dangerous moment is often when a trader feels there is no time left and believes the pump will continue without them, because this is exactly where FOMO can take control of the analysis . If a strong move makes you chase price without knowing your entry, stop loss, or the level that would invalidate your setup, it may be better to step back and wait for more information. A good trader does not need to catch every pump; the goal is to find setups where the risk and reward make sense and the decision is based on evidence . Sometimes the best decision after a strong pump is simply not buying and waiting for a retest or confirmation, because missing one trade is far better than entering because of FOMO. Before chasing any pump, check volume, momentum, price action, support, and resistance , and never let a few green candles make the final decision for you. The market will always offer another opportunity, but money lost because of one emotional entry can take away many opportunities that come later.
B T C : ($63 886 Buy Limit Trade)On Bitcoin today we will be looking to having a (Buy Limit Trade) strictly focusing on the (1H Time Frame) and we can expect to see the simple and straightforward (Candlestick Patterns) such as the (3 White Soldiers Candlestick Pattern)
For the (Buy Limit Trade) we will be entering at the price of ($63 886) and the (Take Profit of $65 304) and place the (Stop Loss at $62 707) this is because we expect and analyze that the (Long Term Trend Direction) is still (Bullish) and would be best and valid to (Capitalize) on the (Bullish Momentum) that will be created.
Do remember to follow your (Trading Plan) accordingly and respect all (Risk Parameters) as this will help in getting the best quality possible in terms of (Results) and (Profits) make sure to adjust the (Stop Loss) to (Entry) whenever there's an opportunity to do so and it is also recommended to always (Secure Partial Profits) as the market can be unpredictable and spike around due to factors as (Fundamentals)
The previous (Buy Trade) is still active and running smoothly as it has not hit (Stop Loss) yet.
⬇️ Pervious Trade Below ⬇️
USOIL 4H Structure: Breakdown Retest Targets $76.50 SupportHi!
Market Structure & Trend: Price experienced a major bullish run, peaking near $93.00 before breaking down below the long-term descending trendline. The recent drop below the Simple Moving Average signals a shift back toward a bearish market structure.
Resistance Zone: The highlighted blue box between $80.00 – $82.50 serves as a strong key resistance area. This zone aligns with previous price gap structural levels and the 100 SMA acting as dynamic resistance.
Bearish Scenario: The visual projection anticipates price retesting the lower resistance zone around $80.00 – $81.50, followed by a bearish rejection downward toward the $76.50 level or further down into the major Demand/Support zone around $73.50 – $75.00.
Bullish Invalidation: A sustained 4-hour candle close above $82.50 invalidates the immediate bearish setup, potentially re-opening the door for a retest of the higher gap resistance level at $86.00 – $88.00.
Bitcoin Consolidation wedge breakdown bears watching Bitcoin is showing clear signs of rejection from the 65,000–65,600 resistance area, with sellers repeatedly stepping in whenever price attempts to recover BTC has formed a bearish wedge structure, while the latest sharp rejection has pushed price back toward the lower part of the range.
The key reason for the repeated downside pressure is a combination of technical resistance + cautious macro sentiment. BTC is currently trading around the 64K area, while the market is waiting for upcoming U.S. inflation data (CPI), which can strongly influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and risk assets.
Resistance Level ; 65K / 66K
Support Level ; 63K / 62K
Another factor adding short-term pressure is Strategy selling roughly 104.7M worth of Bitcoin near the 64K region, which can reinforce bearish sentiment and liquidity pressure around current levels as long as BTC remains below the 64,500 / 66,000 resistance zone, sellers may continue to control the short-term structure however, if BTC reclaims 65,000–65,600 with strong candle confirmation, the bearish setup would weaken and a recovery could develop.
Hope you found this analysis helpful. 👍
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GOLD Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationGold is approaching an important decision area ahead of today’s CPI release, where volatility can increase significantly and price may move quickly in either direction. The current chart structure shows that buyers are still defending the lower support region, while price has recovered back above the 4,380 key level and is now trading around the 4,400 area.
The recent price action shows buyers stepping in around the 4,364–4,368 strong support zone. This area has acted as an important reaction point, and the recovery from support suggests that demand is still present.
Technically Price has also moved back above the 4,380 key level, which is important for the bullish scenario. If buyers continue to hold above this area and price confirms strength after the CPI volatility, the next major resistance zone comes around 4,420 a clean break and sustained move above 4,420 could create room for a continuation toward the higher resistance area around 4,440–4,460, as higher target Point.
CPI NEWS WARNING
CPI can create sudden spikes, fake breakouts, liquidity sweeps, and rapid reversals. The first move after the announcement is not always the real direction. For that reason, waiting for price confirmation around the marked levels can be more disciplined than chasing the initial candle.
Your support means a lot! If you found this analysis useful, leave a Like and tell me your thoughts in the comments. Best of luck with your trading journey! 🚀
GOLD Bulls VS Bears GOLD ready for the next big moveGold is still showing a strong overall bullish structure, but the latest price action is facing repeated rejection from the 4,400 / 4,435 resistance/psychological zone.
The key reason for this repeated downside reaction is not necessarily a confirmed bearish reversal. Gold has rallied strongly following weaker U.S. jobs data, which reduced expectations for aggressive Fed tightening. However, with U.S. CPI due Wednesday, August 12, traders are becoming cautious and locking in profits before the next major catalyst.
🔥 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
Resistance: 4,400 / 4,435/4,440
Support: 4,316 / 4,300
If price continues to reject 4,400–4,440, another correction toward 4,316–4,300 remains possible However, if Gold successfully breaks and closes above 4,440, the current selling pressure could weaken significantly and open the way for another bullish continuation.
The market is currently focused heavily on U.S. CPI inflation data. A hotter-than-expected CPI could strengthen the USD/yields and put additional pressure on non-yielding gold. A softer CPI could weaken the dollar and Treasury yields, potentially supporting another Gold rally.
Hope you found this analysis helpful. 👍
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EURUSD Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationEUR/USD is currently trading under short-term bearish pressure, but price is approaching a major key support zone around 1.1528–1.1532, where buyers could step back into the market.
The current structure suggests that this area is important for the next directional move. If price respects the key level and forms a bullish rejection, we could see a recovery toward the 1.1550–1.1560 area, followed by a possible continuation toward the 1.1570–1.1578 resistance zone.
A deeper pullback toward the 1.1500–1.1505 support/reversal zone is also possible before the bullish move develops. This area has previously acted as a strong reaction zone, so traders should watch price action carefully there.
Technically a strong rejection from support followed by a break and close above nearby resistance would strengthen the bullish scenario a decisive 2H close below the 1.1500 support zone could weaken the reversal setup and expose lower levels.
Your support means a lot! If you found this analysis useful, leave a Like and tell me your thoughts in the comments. Best of luck with your trading journey! 🚀
US100 Consolidation bearish below the key reaction zoneUS100 is reacting near the key 29,800–30,000 resistance zone after a strong bullish move. Price has entered a trading range, showing hesitation as buying momentum slows and sellers begin to react around this important area.
Tecnically market previously rallied strongly from the consolidation zone, but the current price action suggests that profit-taking and selling pressure may be increasing near the highs a strong rejection below 30,000 could push US100 toward the first support and target zone around 29,245–29,179. If bearish momentum continues, price may extend the move toward the lower target zone at 29,005–28,862.
If buyers break and hold above the 30,000 key reaction zone, the current consolidation may only be temporary and US100 could continue its bullish momentum.
Resistance level: 29,800 – 30,000
Support level: 29,245 – 29,000
Hope you found this analysis helpful. 👍
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BTCUSDTBitcoin has recently dropped into the 63,200–63,350 Demand Zone, where buyers have started showing strength. Instead of continuing lower, price formed a Higher Low (HL) and began recovering — an early sign that selling pressure may be weakening.
The next important step is for BTC to move back through the Fair Value Gap around 64,150–64,400. If price reclaims this area and holds above it, buyers could gain more control and push BTC toward 64,200 first, followed by 64,820.
Above that, the 65,200–65,350 Buy-Side Liquidity becomes an important area because price may be attracted toward those resting orders If BTC breaks and holds below the 63,200 Demand Zone, this bullish idea becomes weaker and traders should reassess the structure.
If you found this XAUUSD analysis useful, support the idea with a 👍 and share your market view in the comments — your feedback is appreciated!
EURUSD EUR/USD is showing signs of bearish pressure after failing to sustain the recent recovery. Price is trading below the descending trendline, while the lower-high structure continues to suggest that sellers remain active. The recent pullback toward the supply/resistance area could attract fresh selling if price faces another rejection.
A sustained move below the key support zone would strengthen the bearish structure and could open the way toward the next downside support levels. However, a clean breakout above resistance would weaken the bearish setup, so confirmation is important before expecting further continuation.
SELL Setup
1st Support: Key downside support
2nd Support: Next major support
Resistance Zone: Recent supply/rejection area
📉 Bias: Bearish below resistance
🎯 Targets: Next support zones after confirmed breakdown
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always use proper risk management and confirm the setup before taking any trade.
GOLD Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationGold is currently consolidating beneath a major resistance zone after a strong bullish advance. Price has shown some rejection around the 4,350–4,360 area, leading to a short-term pullback. ]
Technically recent selling pressure appears to be profit-taking rather than a confirmed bearish reversal. As long as buyers continue to defend the current support area, this pullback could provide an opportunity for the next bullish expansion. Traders should closely monitor price action for a strong rejection from support and renewed buying momentum.
From a technical perspective, a decisive break and close above 4,350–4,360 could further bullish strength. Such a breakout may open the path toward 4,380, followed by the major psychological resistance around 4,400–4,405. a successful breakout and retest of the key level would provide stronger confirmation for continuation.
On the downside, caution is warranted if gold loses its immediate support and breaks below the rising trendline. A confirmed bearish breakdown could trigger a deeper correction toward 4,320, followed by 4,300 and 4,280. Until the bullish structure is decisively broken, the broader bias remains positive, with buyers maintaining control above key support levels.
Your support means a lot! If you found this analysis useful, leave a Like and tell me your thoughts in the comments. Best of luck with your trading journey! 🚀
XAUUSD / GOLD Gold is showing strong rejection from the major resistance zone around 4,420–4,432, followed by a sharp bearish move. Price failed to maintain the bullish structure and broke back below the rising trendline, indicating that selling pressure is increasing.
The recent recovery from the 4,355–4,360 area looks corrective so far. If price reaches the nearby 4,390–4,400 resistance/supply area and gets rejected again, sellers could regain control and push Gold toward the marked downside targets.
A confirmed break and close below the key support zone around 4,348–4,355 would strengthen the bearish setup and could open the way toward the next support levels. However, if Gold successfully reclaims 4,400+, the bearish scenario may weaken and a retest of the major resistance zone could become possible.
🔴 SELL Setup
🔴 Entry / Sell Zone: 4,390 – 4,400
🔴 1st Target: 4,338
🔴 2nd Target: 4,320
🔴 3rd Target: 4,305
🟢 Major Resistance: 4,420 – 4,432
🟡 Key Support: 4,348 – 4,355
📌 Confirmation: A bearish rejection from the 4,390–4,400 area or a confirmed breakdown below the key support would provide stronger downside confirmation.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always use proper risk management and wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
EURUSD: Your checklist should trade before your moodEURUSD: Your checklist should trade before your mood
Duck Psychology
🦆 The hardest trade is often the one you do not take.
📈 EURUSD already made the easy emotional move: price climbed from the 1.1375–1.1400 area and reached the 1.1560–1.1580 resistance zone.
👀 Now price is hovering around 1.1530–1.1545, close to the 9 EMA.
The impulse is no longer fresh.
The chart is quieter.
And this is where many traders start making trades not because they see a setup — but because they want to feel involved.
Emotional Trap
🧠 After a strong move, the brain wants continuation.
The trader starts thinking:
“I missed the first move.”
“Maybe I should still enter.”
“What if the next candle breaks higher?”
“I need to do something.”
But needing action is not the same as having a signal.
⚠️ A quiet market can be dangerous because it gives the trader time to invent reasons. The chart stops shouting, so the mind starts talking.
That is why emotional control is not only about panic and FOMO.
It is also about boredom.
Trading Journal
✍️ Before entering a trade, write down the real reason.
Not the pretty reason.
The real one.
Ask:
Am I entering because price is at my planned level?
Do I have confirmation?
What cancels this idea?
Is this setup in my system?
Or am I entering because I missed the first move?
🦆 If the journal says “I just do not want to miss it,” that is not analysis.
That is emotion wearing a trading costume.
System Checklist
✅ EURUSD is now in the 1.1530–1.1545 checklist zone.
A disciplined trader does not need to predict every candle.
A disciplined trader needs a condition.
For example:
- a clean breakout and hold above 1.1560–1.1580;
- or a pullback toward 1.1520–1.1530 with reaction;
- while a move back below 1.1520 would weaken the bullish structure.
⏳ If none of these exists, the trade can wait.
The market will print another candle.
Your job is not to click every time it does.
Psytrader Lesson
📓 The trading journal shows your motive.
✅ The checklist filters your impulse.
If the trade is real, it will survive a few questions.
If it disappears after the checklist, it was probably just mood.
🦆 A calm duck does not trade boredom.
A calm duck waits until the setup can swim on its own.
Question for traders:
Are you trading your system — or just trying to feel involved?
Personal market commentary, not financial advice.
GOLD BEARISH REVERSAL & SELLER CONTROLGold bullish rally pushed price into a premium area, but buyers failed to maintain momentum above the resistance, creating a clear reaction from the supply zone.
📊 MARKET STRUCTURE:
The chart shows that Gold previously developed a strong bullish structure with multiple Higher Lows (HL) and consecutive Breaks of Structure (BOS). However, after reaching the major resistance area, momentum started to weaken. The latest rejection indicates that sellers are now attempting to take control and establish a short-term bearish structure.
🔴 STRONG RESISTANCE / SUPPLY:
The 4,440–4,460 region remains the most important resistance zone on this setup. Any recovery toward this area could attract fresh selling interest if price continues to show rejection. A clean breakout and sustained 1H close above this zone would weaken the bearish scenario.
⚠️ BEARISH CONFIRMATION:
The key confirmation comes from the downside. If Gold breaks and holds below the 4,335–4,340 support area, it could confirm further bearish continuation. Sellers may then target the next liquidity/support region around 4,300–4,305.
DOWNSIDE TARGETS:
TP1 → 4,335–4,340
TP2 → 4,300–4,305
📉 FAIR VALUE GAP:
The marked Fair Value Gap below price is another important area to monitor. If bearish momentum increases, price may retrace into this imbalance to fill part or all of the gap before deciding its next major direction.
🟢 DEMAND ZONE:
The lower demand area remains an important reaction zone. If price reaches this region and buyers step back in, Gold could attempt another recovery. Therefore, traders should watch the reaction carefully rather than assuming every move lower will continue indefinitely.
your support means a lot! Drop a ❤️ Like & 💬 Comment if you’re enjoying the analysis — let’s grow together! 🚀📊
3 Key Bitcoin Signals That Could Indicate a Cycle BottomHello everyone,
Before you review the analysis, please pay close attention to the educational section first.
1. What Is an Inverted Hammer?
An inverted hammer is a candlestick that forms at the end of a downtrend and can signal a potential trend reversal.
2. What Is Miner Capitulation?
Miner capitulation refers to a situation where major Bitcoin miners are forced to surrender or sell their Bitcoin holdings, often due to financial pressure.
3. What Is Strategy Capitulation?
Strategy capitulation refers to Bitcoin sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) near a cycle bottom, potentially due to financial pressure, the need to cover expenses, prevent bankruptcy, or meet dividend obligations.
---
First, Let’s Start With the Inverted Hammer
At the bottoms of the three Bitcoin cycles in 2019, 2022, and 2026, an inverted hammer pattern appeared on the monthly timeframe.
This pattern can signal a potential trend reversal, especially if we are approaching the end of a four-year cycle and a bear market, and particularly when it is combined with miner capitulation.
Now, if next month begins with a bullish candle, it could be a positive sign for the beginning of the next bullish cycle.
Second: Miner Capitulation and Strategy Capitulation
Let’s look at some examples.
December 2018
Miner Capitulation | Severe selling pressure from miners and a sharp decline in hashrate
December 2022
Miners were selling BTC to survive; approximately 40,300 out of 40,700 BTC produced by the 10 largest miners had been sold by the end of November.
We also witnessed miner selling in 2026.
Now, let’s take a look at Strategy.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold Bitcoin once in December 2022.
In August 2026, both Strategy and MARA Digital began selling some of their Bitcoin holdings.
So, let’s answer the important question:
Should We Be Afraid and Run?
We need to look at why they are selling:
🔴 Selling to survive, repay debt, cover expenses, or avoid bankruptcy → this can be a sign of capitulation.
🟠 Selling due to treasury management or profit-taking → this does not necessarily indicate a cycle bottom.
🟢 A large company selling without financial pressure → by itself, this is not a reliable signal that the bear market is ending.
When Strategy and miners are selling Bitcoin because they need to cover expenses or avoid bankruptcy, it can often be a clear sign that we are approaching a Bitcoin cycle bottom.
Putting Everything Together
So, friends, when we put all these factors together — miner capitulation, Strategy capitulation, the monthly inverted hammer, the proximity to day 373 after the market top, and the beginning of the next cycle — they collectively give us an important warning:
Either we are already at the Bitcoin cycle bottom, or we are very close to it.
Don't forget that this is not financial advice.
I am simply presenting a broader idea for you to consider, based on the chart, on-chain data, and historical cycles.
Best regards,
Amir Ghasemi
Why Support and Resistance Still Work in 2026You mark a level. Price arrives at it. You take the trade. Price goes straight through, stops you out, and then reverses back in the direction you originally wanted.
So you conclude the level was wrong. Or worse, you conclude that support and resistance no longer work, that the market has changed, that everyone is watching the same lines so the lines have stopped mattering.
None of that is what happened. The level was probably fine. The problem was that you were looking at it through the wrong lens, on the wrong timeframe, with no sense of what surrounded it.
🔵 A Level Is Not a Line. It Is a Zone With a Timeframe Attached.
Here is the first thing that goes wrong. Traders draw a level as if it were a fixed price. One line, one number, absolute. Price either respects it or it does not.
But a level is a region where participation changed. It is where enough orders were placed, filled, or trapped that the balance shifted. That does not happen at a single price. It happens across a small band, and the width of that band is determined by the timeframe that produced it.
A level formed on a weekly chart is a wide area. It might be worth a substantial move on its own. A level formed on a five-minute chart is narrow and short-lived, because the participation that created it was small and quickly absorbed.
🔵 Higher Timeframes Do Not Just Matter More — They Overrule
This is the part that changes how people trade once they genuinely accept it. Levels are not equal. They exist in a hierarchy, and the higher one always wins.
A strong daily resistance does not care that you found neat support on the fifteen-minute chart just underneath it. The lower level will get taken. Not because your analysis was bad, but because the larger participation sitting above it is simply heavier.
Most losing trades taken at "good" levels are this exact mistake. The level was real. It was just standing directly in the path of something much bigger.
If a higher timeframe level sits close by, your level is not a place to trade from. It is a place price passes through on the way to somewhere that matters more.
🔵 Collisions Are Where Accounts Die
Here is a pattern we see constantly. A trader finds support on the four-hour chart. They also notice resistance on the one-hour just above. They see two levels close together and interpret it as confirmation — the area is important, so it must be a strong zone.
It is the opposite. Two opposing levels in close proximity is not a strong zone. It is a compression, and compression resolves violently in one direction.
Trading into a collision means you are entering exactly where the market has the most disagreement and the least clarity. The move that follows will be fast, and it will usually take both levels before deciding anything.
The practical guidance here is simple and unglamorous. When your levels from different timeframes are stacked on top of each other in conflict, that is information telling you to wait, not information telling you to act.
🔵 The Mistake of Trading Every Level You Can See
Once you learn to mark levels, you will see them everywhere. That is the danger.
A chart with fifteen lines on it is not a well-analysed chart. It is a chart where the trader has lost the ability to distinguish between what matters and what is noise.
Most levels on most timeframes are irrelevant on any given day. They exist historically, but nothing is happening at them and nobody is defending them. Drawing them does not make them active.
🔵 Why Levels Get Broken and Then Respected Again
There is one more behaviour worth understanding, because it confuses almost everyone. Price breaks a level cleanly. Everyone sees the break. And then price returns to that same level and reacts to it perfectly.
This is not the level failing and then working. It is the level doing exactly what levels do. A level is a place where positions exist; when price breaks through, those positions do not vanish — they change hands. The people who were defending it are now trapped on the wrong side, and the people who pushed through now have exposure they want to protect.
That is why broken levels frequently matter more afterward than they did before. The participation did not leave. It relocated. Understanding this stops you from throwing away a level the moment it is breached, which is when most traders discard exactly the information that was about to become useful.
🔵 Final Take
Support and resistance did not stop working. They never stopped working, because they describe something structural about how markets behave rather than a pattern that can be arbitraged away.
What stops working is treating them as flat, timeless, interchangeable lines with no hierarchy and no surroundings.
Anchor every level to the timeframe that created it. Respect the fact that the bigger timeframe overrules the smaller one every time. Stay out of collisions. Trade fewer levels, and know why the one you chose is the one that matters today.
A level is not a signal. It is a location. What makes it tradable is everything around it.
Swallow Academy
EURUSD Bullish outlook upside targets aheadEUR/USD has entered a consolidation phase around 1.1520–1.1580, with buyers still maintaining control after the previous upside move.
The broader outlook is also being influenced by U.S. dollar weakness and changing Federal Reserve expectations. Traders are closely watching upcoming U.S. inflation data, as stronger-than-expected data could support the dollar and pressure EUR/USD, while softer inflation could increase expectations for Fed easing and provide additional upside momentum for the pair.
Resistance: 1.1580, 1.1600, 1.1640
Support: 1.1540, 1.1520, 1.1500
From a technical perspective, the key upside area is 1.1580–1.1600. A clean breakout and sustained 2H close above 1.1600 could confirm another bullish leg toward 1.1640. However, if price fails to break resistance and falls below 1.1540, the pair could retest 1.1520 and 1.1500. Therefore, the current trading range is important because the next confirmed breakout could determine the short-term direction.
Hope you found this analysis helpful. 👍
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Accumulation and price appreciation – around the 4,400 level.GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) trims a part of its intraday gains and trades below the $4,400 mark heading into the European session on Wednesday, still up 0.50% for the day. Nevertheless, the commodity remains within striking distance of the highest level since June 5, which was touched on Tuesday, as traders keenly await the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The crucial data would offer more cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path amid inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, which, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold prices are maintaining an upward trend, with buying interest accumulating around the 4400 level; investors are becoming optimistic about a potential recovery in gold prices.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 4498 - 4500 SL 4508
TP1: $4480
TP2: $4462
TP3: $4444
🔥BUY GOLD zone: 4317- 4315 SL 4307
TP1: $4330
TP2: $4344
TP3: $4360
⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
SP500S&P 500 is showing signs of rejection near a well-defined resistance zone around 7,840–7,880 after a strong bullish move. Price is currently consolidating below resistance, while the rising trend structure is showing signs of weakening.
As long as price remains below the major resistance zone, the bearish downside scenario remains valid. A strong breakout and close above resistance would invalidate the immediate bearish setup.
🎯 Key Levels (Must Watch)
Strong Support / Target: 7,520
Strong Resistance Zone: 7,840 – 7,880
📌 Bearish Trigger: Rejection from resistance + break below the 7,680–7,720 area.
📈 Bullish Invalidation: Sustained breakout and close above 7,880 could signal continuation toward higher levels.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Levels can change with market structure and volatility.
























