Bitcoin Power-Law, Halvings & Wyckoff Model (Macro 1W/1M)An advanced Bitcoin macro analysis tool on weekly (1W) and monthly (1M) time frames. The script automatically maps global BTC cycles by combining the Power-Law mathematical model, Halving cyclicality, and precise institutional market geometry according to Richard Wyckoff's methodology.
How does the indicator work? (Key Pillars)
1. Bitcoin Power-Law Model
The script calculates the time elapsed since the birth of the Bitcoin network (the so-called Genesis Block – January 3, 2009). Based on a logarithmic scale, it marks four fixed long-term trend lines:
- Blue Line (Fair Value): Shows Bitcoin's mathematical fair value, around which the market has been fluctuating for over a decade.
- Purple Line (Medium-Term Ceiling): Marks historical market overheating zones and bull market bubble peaks.
- Green Line (Price Floor): Key macro support level, marking the ultimate market bottom during the greatest capitulation.
- Red Line: A safety band running deep below the chart, constituting the ultimate boundary of the uptrend.
2. Halving Cycles (Halving Counter)
The indicator automatically locates past and future miner reward events on the timeline (including the upcoming Halving in April 2028). It plots vertical orange dashed lines with labels on the chart, allowing you to instantly assess which phase of the 4-year cycle the price is currently in.
3. Wyckoff Pattern Detection Macro (Post-Fact Drawing)
This indicator operates in a highly secure and conservative manner. It doesn't guess patterns in real time to avoid false signals during trends. Instead, it scans the market for flat consolidations (sideways ranges) only in extreme regions:
- Accumulation (Bear Bottoms): Searched only when the price is deep below the central axis (in the area of the green line).
- Distribution (Bull Tops): Searched only when the price is high above the central axis (in the area of the 2024-2025 highs).
Trigger Moment: When the market is building a sideways trend and the price officially crosses the 10-period moving average (SMA 10) (an upside breakout for accumulation or a downside breakdown for distribution), the algorithm validates the structure. In this split second, the script moves back on the chart for the designated period and plots the complete Wyckoff Anatomy using the spread: It draws automatic, horizontal support and resistance lines of the trading range (Trading Range).
It sets vertical black lines dividing the structure into official market sub-phases. It marks precise turning points:
- institutional capital: PS/PSY (Initial Support/Resistance),
- SC/BC (Selling/Buying Climax),
- AR (Automatic Rebound),
- ST (Secondary Test),
- Spring/UTAD (Clearing Liquidity Lows/Highs),
- LPS/LPSY (Last Support/Resistance Points)
- and PHASE E – the moment of releasing a new, powerful macro trend.
User Manual Interval:
The indicator was designed and calibrated exclusively for high time frames: 1 Week (1W) or 1 Month (1M).
Logarithmic Scale: In order for the Power-Law lines and labels to perfectly match the Bitcoin price chart and not "float" when scrolling the screen, you must have the logarithmic scale enabled on the PulseWire chart (click the Log button in the lower right corner of the screen).
Application: The tool is used to identify global turning points (wealth generation) – it allows you to buy Bitcoin in Phase E of macro accumulation and safely implement profits as Phase E distribution heralds the arrival of a bear market. Indicator
NY 4H Wyckoff State Machine [CHE] NY 4H Wyckoff State Machine — Full (Re-Entry, Breakout, Wick, Re-Accum/Distrib, Dynamic Table) — One-Candle Wyckoff Re-Entry (OCWR)
Summary
OCWR operationalizes a one-candle session workflow: mark the first four-hour New York candle, fix its high and low as the session range when the window closes, and drive entries through a Wyckoff-style state machine on intraday bars. The script adds an ATR-scaled buffer around the range and requires multi-bar acceptance before treating breaks or re-entries as valid. Optional wick-cluster evidence, a proximity retest, and simple volume or RSI gates increase selectivity. Background tints expose regimes, shapes mark events, a dynamic table explains the current state, and hidden plots supply alert payloads. The design reduces random flips and makes state transitions auditable without higher-timeframe calls.
Origin and name
Method name: One-Candle Wyckoff Re-Entry (OCWR)
Transcript origin: The source idea is a “stupid simple one-candle scalping” routine: mark the first New York four-hour candle (commonly between one and five in the morning New York time), drop to five minutes, observe accumulation inside, wait for a manipulation move outside, then trade the re-entry back inside. Stops go beyond the excursion extreme; targets are either a fixed reward multiple or the opposite side of the range. Preference is given to several manipulation candles. This indicator codifies that workflow with explicit states, acceptance counters, buffers, and optional quality filters. Any external performance claims are not part of the code.
Motivation: Why this design?
Session levels are widely respected, yet single-bar breaches around them are noisy. OCWR separates range discovery from trade logic. It locks the range at the end of the window, applies an ATR-scaled buffer to ignore marginal oversteps, and requires acceptance over several bars for breaks and re-entries. Wick evidence and optional retest proximity help confirm that an excursion likely cleared liquidity rather than launched a trend. This yields cleaner transitions from test to commitment.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
Baseline: Static session lines or one-shot Wyckoff tags without process control.
Architecture: Dual long and short state machines; ATR-buffered edges; multi-bar acceptance for breaks and re-entries; optional wick dominance and cluster checks; optional retest tolerance; direct and opposite breakout paths; cooldown after fires; distribution timeout; dynamic table with highlighted row.
Practical effect: Fewer single-bar head-fakes, clearer hand-offs, and on-chart explanations of the machine’s view.
Wyckoff structure by example — OCWR on five minutes
One-candle setup:
On the four-hour chart, mark the first New York candle’s high and low, then switch to five minutes. Solid lines show the fixed range; dashed lines show ATR-buffered edges.
Long path (verbal mapping):
Phase A, Stopping Action: Price stabilizes inside the range.
Phase B, Consolidation: Sustained balance while the window is closed and after the range is fixed.
Phase C, Test (Spring): Excursion below the buffered low with preference for several outside bars and dominant lower wicks, then a return inside.
Re-entry acceptance: A required run of inside bars validates the test.
Phase D, Breakout to Markup: Long signal fires; stop beyond the excursion extreme; objective is the opposite range or a fixed reward multiple.
Phase E, Trend (Markup) and Re-Accumulation: Advance continues until target, stop, confirmation back against the box, or timeout. A pause inside trend may register as re-accumulation.
Short path mirrors the above: A UTAD-style move forms above the buffered high, then re-entry leads to Markdown and possible re-distribution.
Variant map (verbal):
Accumulation after a downtrend: with Spring and Test, or without Spring; both proceed to Markup and may pause in Re-Accumulation.
Distribution after an uptrend: with UTAD and Test, or without UTAD; both proceed to Markdown and may pause in Re-Distribution.
Note: Phases A through E occur within each variant and are not separate variants.
How it works (technical)
Session window: A configurable four-hour New York window records its high and low. At window end, the bounds are fixed for the session.
ATR buffer: A margin above and below the fixed range discourages triggers from tiny oversteps.
Inside and outside: Users choose close-based or wick-based detection. Overshoot requirements are expressed verbally as a fraction of the range with an optional absolute minimum.
Manipulation tracking: The machine counts bars spent outside and records the side extreme.
Re-entry acceptance: After a return inside, a specified number of inside bars must print before acceptance.
Direct and opposite breakouts: Direct breakouts from accumulation and opposite breakouts after manipulation are supported, subject to acceptance and optional filters.
Targets and exits: Choose the opposite boundary or a fixed reward multiple. Distribution ends on target, stop, confirmation back against the range, or timeout.
Context filters (optional): Volume above a scaled SMA, RSI thresholds, and a trend SMA for simple regime context.
Diagnostics: Background tints for regimes; arrows for re-entries; triangles for breakouts; table with row highlights; hidden plots for alert values.
Central table (Wyckoff console)
The table sits top-right and explains the machine’s stance. Columns: Structure label, plain-English description, active state pair for long and short, and human phase tags. Rows: Start and range building; accumulation branch with Spring and Test as well as direct breakout; Markup and re-accumulation; distribution branch with UTAD and Test as well as direct short breakout; Markdown and re-distribution. Only the active state cell is rewritten each last bar, for example “L_ACCUM slash S_ACCUM”. Row highlighting is context-aware: accumulation, Spring or UTAD, breakout, Markup or Markdown, and re-accumulation or re-distribution checks can highlight independently so users see simultaneous conditions. The table is created once, updated only on the last bar for efficiency, and functions as a read-only console to audit why a signal fired and where the path currently sits.
Parameter Guide
Session window and time zone: First four hours of New York by default; time zone “America/New_York”.
ATR length and buffer factor: Control buffer size; larger reduces sensitivity, smaller reacts faster.
Minimum overshoot (fraction and absolute): Demand meaningful extension beyond the buffer.
Break mode: Close-based is stricter; wick-based is more reactive.
Acceptance counts: Separate counts for break, re-entry, and opposite breakout; higher values reduce noise.
Minimum bars outside: Ensures manipulation is not a single spike.
Wick detection and clusters (optional): Dominance thresholds and cluster size within a short window.
Retest required and tolerance (optional): Gate re-entry by proximity to the buffered edge.
Volume and RSI filters (optional): Simple gates on activity and momentum.
TP mode and reward multiple: Opposite range or fixed multiple.
Cooldown and distribution timeout: Rate-limit signals and prevent endless distribution.
Visualization toggles: Background phases, labels, table, and helper lines.
Reading & Interpretation
Solid lines are the fixed session bounds; dashed lines are buffers. Backgrounds tint accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. Arrows show accepted re-entries; triangles show direct or opposite breakouts. Labels can summarize entry, stop, target, and risk. The table highlights the active row and the current state pair.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
OCWR baseline: Each morning, mark the New York four-hour candle, move to five minutes, prefer multi-bar manipulation outside, then wait for a qualified re-entry inside. Stop beyond the excursion extreme. Target the opposite range for conservative management or a fixed multiple for uniform sizing.
Trend following: Favor direct breakouts with trend alignment and no contradictory wick evidence.
Quality control: When noise rises, increase acceptance, raise the buffer factor, enable retest, and require wick clusters.
Discretionary confluences: Fair-value gaps and trend lines can be added by the user; they are not computed by this script.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Closed-bar confirmation is recommended when you require finality; live-bar conditions can change until close. The script does not call higher-timeframe data. It uses arrays, lines, labels, boxes, and a table; maximum bars back is five thousand; table updates are last-bar only. Known limits include compressed buffers in quiet sessions, unreliable wick evidence in thin markets, and session misalignment if the platform time zone is not New York.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Start with ATR length fourteen, buffer factor near zero point fifteen, overshoot fraction near zero point ten, acceptance counts of two, minimum outside duration three, retest required on.
Too many flips: increase acceptance, raise buffer, enable retest, and tighten wick thresholds.
Too slow: reduce acceptance, lower buffer, switch to wick-based breaks, disable retest.
Noisy wicks: increase minimum wick ratio and cluster size, or disable wick detection.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
A session-anchored visualization and signal layer that formalizes a Wyckoff-style re-entry and breakout workflow derived from a single four-hour New York candle. It is not predictive and not a complete trading system. Use with structure analysis, risk controls, and position management.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
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Keltner Center Of Gravity Channel ( KeltCOG )I have the ambition to create a ‘landscape’ which enables the user to see the ‘mood’ of the market about the price of an instrument, simply by looking where the candles go. Prices are a simple phenomenon , they go up or down or stay the same. This is represented quite well for the short term by a candle. I recommend to study candle patterns. Prices not only fluctuate but also trend up, down or go sideways. The user should analyze this by determining the COG (Center Of Gravity) and the ‘normal’ current range by using the historical data in a lookback period.
As a COG the center line of a Donchian Channel is often used. I.m.o. a COG should be a zone, in this channel I use the gray zone of my Donchian Fibonacci Channel, The ‘normal’ range is a multiple of Average True Range, as used in a Keltner Channel. Combining the two can give a cumbersome result, as one can see in my Keltner Fibonacci Channel. In this KeltCOG channel I solved this by not using all Fibonacci levels and by making the Keltner lines strictly parallel to the nearest COG line. To do this, I use the fact that the COG lines have horizontal stretches, there I make the Keltner lines horizontal too. Only where the COG lines change value, the Keltner lines are recalculated. This way the channel gets a very regular shape with three clear zones.
Interpretation of a chart by using the KeltCOG channel.
Overbought: If the candles go higher then the blue zone, the market is hyper enthusiast, creating an overbought situation. This is often followed by a reversion to the COG.
Uptrend: If the candles form in the blue zone, the market is enthusiast and willing to pay more.
Hopeful: If the candles form in or near the upper uncolored zone, the market is hopeful and is thinking about paying more. Sometimes prices go a little up.
Content: If the candles form in the gray zone, which represents COG, the market is happy with the current prices, so these move sideways
Disappointed: If the candles form in or near the lower uncolored zone, the market is disappointed and contemplates paying less, sometimes prices go a little down.
Downtrend: If the candles form in red zone, the market doesn’t like the instrument at all, rejects the current price and is only prepared to pay less.
Oversold: If the candles form below the red zone, the market overdoes its disgust, creating an oversold situation, often followed by a reversion to the COG.
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