Anchored VWAP Reversion ChannelAnchored VWAP Reversion Channel — Regime-Gated Fade Framework
## What this script does
This is an **analytical study** that frames mean-reversion ("fade") setups around an **anchored, volume-weighted regression channel**, then **gates** those setups by a statistical market-state test and **scores** them against their own forward outcomes. It does not place orders and it is not a signal service — its purpose is to let you see, on your own instrument and timeframe, whether fading a stretched move actually has an edge, instead of assuming it does.
It plots one channel (a centre line plus inner/outer residual-σ bands), marks fade setups at the outer band, draws supporting context (volume-profile POC / value area, untested prior-session POCs, momentum divergences, liquidity sweeps, and multi-timeframe trend lines), and reports a compact validation panel.
## Why these components are combined (mashup rationale)
Fading an extreme is really three separate questions, and no single classic indicator answers all three. Stacking look-alike indicators just echoes one input, so this tool deliberately combines **three non-redundant lenses and makes them check each other**:
1. **WHERE is price stretched?** — A **volume-weighted polynomial regression** anchored at the most recent swing pivot, with **residual-σ bands**. Because the curve tilts with the active leg, an outer-band tag stays meaningful even inside a trend, where a flat cumulative VWAP would not. A **volume profile** anchored to the *same* window supplies POC and value area, and prior-session POCs that have never since been traded through become **reversion targets**.
2. **Is a reversion actually firing here?** — Three orthogonal **tells** evaluated only at the band: a **close-back rejection**, a **band-confluent momentum divergence**, and an **equal-high/low liquidity sweep** (stop-run). Crucially, all three are derived from the same stretch, so their agreement is shrunk by a **design-effect correction** (effective-sample-size): three correlated echoes are not allowed to masquerade as three independent confirmations.
3. **Is the market in a reverting state at all?** — A **regime gate** combining a **variance-ratio test** and a **reversion-trust correlation** only lets a fade through when recent increments are offsetting (mean-reverting) rather than compounding (trending).
The pieces are not bolted together side by side: they share **one geometry** (the anchored channel) and **one volatility unit** (residual σ / ATR), and each can veto the others. A band tag with no tell does nothing; a tell with no reverting regime does nothing. The design goal is to **suppress** low-quality fades — into a trend, mid-range, or backed by a single echoed tell — more than to generate them.
## The honesty layer (what makes this more than a drawing)
Every fade that fires is logged and, a fixed horizon later, **resolved**: its forward return is measured in ATR units and tabulated **with the regime gate ON versus OFF**, reporting follow-through %, whipsaw %, a Wilson 95% confidence interval, and the **mean return per fade**. A per-fade series also exports to the Data Window so you can study the full return distribution offline. The gate has to **beat its own ungated baseline** to justify itself — the framework is built to be tested, not trusted blindly.
## How to use it
1. Set the **Price source** (group 01). It works on any symbol and any market; volume-based parts need a real volume feed.
2. A fade **arms** when price tags the outer band **and** at least one tell prints, then **passes** only if the regime gate reports a reverting state. Solid triangles are gated fades; the target is the centre line or the nearest untested POC.
3. Read the panel top-down: does **Gate ON** beat **Gate OFF** on both follow-through and mean R, with non-overlapping intervals and a reasonable sample size? If not, the edge is not present on this symbol/timeframe — change them rather than forcing the trade.
4. The signal lives on **higher intraday timeframes**; one-minute data is mostly noise.
## Defaults
Shipped tuned for **NSE:NIFTY** index futures on intraday timeframes (sources, pivot lengths, value-area %, and the Tuesday-style weekly session context reflect that instrument). Every value is exposed as an input — change the **Price source** and the relevant lengths to run the framework on any other instrument or market.
## What is original
The original work is the **coordination**, not any single formula: an anchored polynomial-regression channel used as a reversion frame, three decorrelated band tells fused by a design-effect shrink, a statistical regime gate, and a built-in A/B + forward-return validation harness — combined so each lens can veto the others and the whole thing reports its own hit rate. It is not a re-skin of one indicator.
## Concept credits (techniques are standard; this implementation is original)
Anchored VWAP (standard); volume-weighted least-squares / polynomial regression (standard); residual-σ channel (standard); Volume Profile, Value Area and POC — Market Profile, Steidlmayer / CBOT; Variance-Ratio test — Lo & MacKinlay (1988); design effect / effective sample size — Kish (1965); proportion confidence interval — Wilson (1927); ATR trailing stop / Supertrend (classic, used for the multi-timeframe context lines); RSI — Wilder; Stochastic — Lane.
## Disclaimer
For research and education only. This is an analytical study, **not** financial advice, **not** a recommendation, and **not** a guarantee of future results. All statistics shown are **in-sample** on loaded history, close-to-close, without costs or slippage — a study aid, not a backtest. Mean reversion fails in trends and through regime breaks. Do your own research and manage your own risk.
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Volatility Pressure & Regime AnalyzerVolatility Pressure & Regime Analyzer
## What this script does
VPRA estimates **when a market is loading energy for an outsized move, how large that move could be, and whether the current regime favors chasing or fading the breakout**. It condenses this into one on-chart verdict panel, directional signal markers, a regime ribbon, and a forecast of the expected move in ATR and points.
It works on **any symbol, any market, any timeframe**. A related volatility index and a companion symbol (the underlying if you chart a derivative, or vice versa) are optional inputs that sharpen the analysis; both can be disabled and the model renormalizes to price-only mode automatically.
## Why these components are combined (mashup justification)
Each module answers a question the others cannot, and the signal only fires when their answers agree. None of them is a stock indicator pasted alongside another — they are inputs to a single pressure model:
1. **Compression (ATR percentile)** answers *"is energy being stored?"* Quiet ranges precede expansion, but compression alone says nothing about direction or timing.
2. **Implied-vs-realized volatility dislocation** (optional vol index) answers *"is the options market mispricing the calm?"* A large gap between implied and realized volatility marks complacency or stress that compression alone cannot see.
3. **Basis tension** (optional companion symbol) answers *"is positioning leaning?"* Momentum in the derivative-to-underlying spread, and outright backwardation, reveal funding pressure and de-risking invisible in a single price series.
4. **Convexity and trend inefficiency** (return acceleration, efficiency ratio) answer *"is price behavior becoming unstable?"*
These four are blended into one **Pressure score (0–100)**, percent-ranked against its own history so thresholds adapt to every symbol and timeframe.
5. **A variance-ratio regime filter** answers *"will the break run or get faded?"* The ratio of k-bar to 1-bar return variance classifies the tape as mean-reverting (pinning) or trending (amplifying). Breakouts in a pinning regime are statistically more likely to fail, so the script can label or skip them.
6. **A multi-timeframe trend filter (Ichimoku cloud bias on the chart TF + three higher TFs)** answers *"is the release direction supported by structure?"* It grades signals rather than generating them. Higher-timeframe values are taken from **closed bars by default, so the confluence grade does not repaint**.
7. **Session, expiry, gap and event context** scale the expected-move forecast: an expiry-afternoon release during a volatility spike forecasts a larger move than a sleepy mid-session one.
Removing any module degrades a specific, named capability — that is the test the combination was built to pass.
## How a signal is generated
A marker prints only when **all** of the following align: pressure has reached a high percentile of its own history within a short lookback ("loaded"), the current bar shows a genuine range expansion ("release"), the condition persists for a confirmation bar count, a debounce gap has passed, and (optionally) the regime and trend filters pass. Direction is scored from **trigger-break** (close beyond the prior N-bar extreme), **close location** within the bar, and short momentum.
Marker color encodes the inferred event type: expiry-session releases, volatility-co-movement squeezes (price and vol index moving together — a short-covering tell), or plain expansions. The glow ring encodes how many higher timeframes agree. An ⓘ label stores a full diagnostic snapshot (pressure, regime, instability, basis, energy, session, expected move) in its tooltip for every signal.
## How to use it
- Apply to a liquid symbol; set "This chart is" to Derivative or Underlying, point the companion and volatility-index inputs at your market's related symbols (or disable them), and set your session hours and expiry weekday.
- Read the panel top-down: **Regime** (chase vs fade), **Pressure/Energy** (how loaded), **Move size** (forecast), **Trend align / HTF** (structure), **Triggers** (the price levels that confirm).
- Use the "Filter" modes to suppress signals against regime or higher-timeframe structure, or leave them as badges and judge manually.
- The advanced rows show per-type follow-through statistics (hit rate, average favorable and adverse excursion in ATR) and an early-vs-late history split as a coarse robustness check. **These are in-sample descriptive statistics, not a backtest.** A companion strategy script with identical logic is available for proper backtesting with costs.
- Alerts: per-signal dynamic alert with all values (webhook-ready), plus static conditions for expiry signals, releases, critical pressure, and vol shocks.
## Originality
The pressure blend (compression x vol-dislocation x basis tension x convexity x inefficiency, percent-rank normalized), the variance-ratio regime gate applied to breakout qualification, the compression-energy budget, and the per-type MFE/MAE statistics with an early/late split are original constructions written from first principles for this script. The only classical components used are public-domain building blocks (ATR, Bollinger/Keltner-style compression logic via ATR percentile, Ichimoku cloud bias as a trend filter, Kaufman efficiency ratio), each justified above.
## Limitations (please read)
- Dealer-positioning effects (often discussed as gamma/vanna/charm) are **inferred from price, volatility and basis behavior**. This script does not and cannot read option-chain open interest. Labels such as "gamma blast" describe an expiry-session release pattern, not a measured dealer position.
- All on-panel statistics are computed on the loaded chart history and will differ across symbols, timeframes and history length.
- Higher-timeframe confluence uses closed HTF bars by default (no repaint); the current chart bar still forms in real time, as with any script.
- Expected-move figures are model estimates, not guarantees.
This script is for education and analysis. It is **not financial advice**; trade at your own risk and test before use.
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Statistical Mean-Reversion Engine [SMRE]## Statistical Mean-Reversion Engine (SMRE)
SMRE is an open-source mean-reversion indicator that combines a rigorous statistical core with up to eight optional confirmation layers, designed primarily for index-futures trading on intraday timeframes (1-minute through 1-hour).
### What it does
For every bar, SMRE fits an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process to the recent price series via linear regression on lag-1 prices, yielding four outputs:
- **μ (the mean)** — the equilibrium price the series is reverting to
- **θ (mean-reversion speed)** — how strongly the series pulls back to μ
- **HL (half-life)** — how many bars it takes to revert halfway
- **σ_eq (stationary residual variance)** — used to z-score the current price
The current price's z-score against μ (the "OU Z") is the primary signal. When |OU Z| exceeds a configurable threshold, a mean-reversion entry is considered — but only after the script also confirms that the recent price series is genuinely stationary using three orthogonal statistical tests:
- **Hurst exponent** must be below 0.55 (i.e., the series is not persistently trending)
- **Augmented Dickey-Fuller** t-statistic must be below -2.86 (rejects unit root)
- **Variance Ratio** test at q=4 must be below 1.0 (variance grows sub-linearly with horizon)
If all four conditions pass, the L1 (statistical core) signal fires.
### Why the multi-layer structure (mashup justification)
A single OU-based mean-reversion signal works well in stationary regimes but degrades in trending or volatile conditions. SMRE addresses this by validating each potential entry through up to eight orthogonal confirmation channels, each measuring something the others do not:
- **L2 — Volatility Regime (6-state):** Classifies market state via VIX, ADX, and realized volatility. Suppresses signals during high-trend conditions (regime 6, "Spike") where mean-reversion historically fails.
- **L3 — Spot-Futures Basis (Kalman filter):** Tracks the deviation between actual and theoretical futures pricing. Statistically significant basis dislocations often resolve via mean-reversion.
- **L4 — Options Surface:** Computes ATM implied volatility from straddle pricing and a skew z-score from OTM put/call ratio. Optional; requires user to provide option symbols.
- **L5 — Microstructure:** Blends rolling VWAP and session-anchored VWAP z-scores with VPIN (a volume-clock toxicity proxy) and order-flow imbalance. Captures flow-based exhaustion.
- **L6 — Gamma Walls (GEX) OR Put-Call Ratio:** Two mutually exclusive options. GEX requires OI symbols at five strikes; PCR requires a single broker-published PCR feed. Both detect option-driven price magnets.
- **L7 — Dispersion:** Rolling correlation of index returns with its top 5 constituent stocks' returns. High dispersion (low correlation) penalizes signals; high cohesion boosts them.
- **L7b — Residual Dispersion:** Idiosyncratic residual z-scores (β-adjusted) per constituent. If 3 of 5 stocks show same-sign extreme residuals, the index is detached from constituents — strong mean-reversion candidate.
- **L9 — Cross-Asset Stress:** Sigma-normalized stress across USD/INR, DXY, and crude oil. Penalizes signals during cross-asset hedging cascades.
Each layer outputs a {direction, strength} pair. The Layer 8 fusion engine combines these via a weighted composite score (default weights: L1=0.28, L5=0.22, L3=0.18, L4=0.12, L6/L7b=0.10), then applies a regime multiplier (L2 × L7 × VRP × cross-asset × expiry), clamped to to prevent extreme compounding.
If the absolute composite score crosses one of three thresholds (0.25 / 0.40 / 0.45 by default), a signal is fired at Scalp / Swing / Session horizon respectively. A TCA cost filter then validates that the expected move (distance to μ) exceeds estimated round-trip transaction cost; otherwise the signal is suppressed.
### Originality
The author is not aware of any other public Pine script that implements the full OU-fit chain (mean, mean-reversion speed, half-life, stationary variance) together with all three stationarity tests (Hurst, ADF, Variance Ratio) directly in Pine v6 — every step is computed natively, no external library calls. Additionally, the session-anchored VWAP with running volume-weighted sigma bands, the rolling-beta residual dispersion across multiple constituents, and the Kalman-filtered futures-basis residual are original Pine implementations. The signal telemetry module (a 200-signal FIFO ring buffer with horizon × composite-magnitude bucket attribution) is also an original diagnostic tool.
### How to use
1. **Apply to an index futures chart.** Defaults are pre-configured for NSE NIFTY1! futures, but inputs allow any index — change the VIX symbol, spot/futures symbols, constituent symbols, and currency pairs.
2. **Read the compact dashboard.** It's a single 9-row table (default position: middle-right) showing only what you need to evaluate a setup:
| Row | What it shows | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Title | Profile + OU window in use | Confirms which calibration is active |
| OU Z-Score | Z-score with half-life (HL) | How extended price is + how long mean-reversion typically takes |
| Stat Validity | H / ADF / VR pass-fail | Whether the recent series is actually stationary (all 3 must pass) |
| Regime | Volatility state + VIX value | Whether market conditions favor mean-reversion |
| Composite | Fused score × regime multiplier | The unified signal strength |
| Confluence | Layers agreeing (out of 6) | How many orthogonal signals support the direction |
| TCA Edge | Expected move in bps + PASS/FAIL | Whether the trade clears transaction costs |
| E / SL / TP | Entry, Stop, Target + Risk:Reward | The trade levels if a signal fires |
| **DECISION** | Direction · Horizon · Side | The actionable output (green=long, red=short, gray=neutral) |
3. **Trade levels and markers.** When a signal fires, entry/stop/target lines auto-plot on the chart. Stop is ATR-based (default 1.2× ATR); target is min(OU mean μ, entry + 2× ATR). Triangle markers plot below (long) or above (short) the bar — small for Scalp, medium for Swing, large for Session.
4. **Optional diagnostic.** A separate Signal Telemetry table (disabled by default; enable via the "Show Telemetry Dashboard" input) tracks the last 200 signals' outcomes (win = price touched μ, loss = stop hit, expired = timeout) and reports hit rate by horizon × composite-magnitude bucket. This is a backward-looking diagnostic, not a backtest.
### Recommended chart and timeframe
This indicator was developed and parameter-tested primarily on NIFTY1! futures. The OU window auto-mapping (1m→32, 2m→20, 5m→12, 15m→32, 30m→20, 1h→24) was selected empirically through parameter sweeps. Users on other instruments should expect to tune the OU window manually or accept the auto-mapped default as a starting point.
The indicator works on any timeframe between 1 minute and daily, though intraday timeframes (1m through 1h) are where the multi-layer confluence adds the most value.
### Important notes
- This is an **indicator**, not a strategy — no backtest equity curve is produced. The telemetry table is a descriptive measure of recent signal outcomes only.
- Many layers are **optional**. If you don't have symbols for options OI, just leave those inputs blank; the script will redistribute composite weight naturally across the active layers.
- Signals can fluctuate intra-bar before bar close, especially in real-time mode. For consistent behavior, evaluate signals on closed bars only.
- The default constituents (top-5 NIFTY weights) need to be changed in the L7 inputs to use this on a different index.
### Disclaimer
This indicator is published for educational and research purposes only. It is not financial advice, not an investment recommendation, and not a solicitation to trade. Past behavior of signals does not guarantee future results. Trading futures, options, and equities carries substantial risk of loss. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions. The author makes no representations about the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this indicator for any particular purpose. Use at your own risk, and always consult a qualified financial professional before trading.
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