Alien The Bayesian Follower [by Oberlunar] Alien The Bayesian Follower 👁⭐
— Bayesian Gating Filter by Oberlunar
Alien The Bayesian Follower by Oberlunar is a permission layer for execution engines. At its core sits a conjugate Bayesian update that continuously revises the expected edge of each trading cell as live evidence accumulates, and automatically disables cells whose edge has decayed. Empirically, for most of the time, when a long/short gate is active, the price goes in the opposite direction or straight in the trend. Use it at 30 m, with lower TF at 15 m and trade on pullbacks.
The state space is built by crossing three fixed methodologies: a 5-class daily Regime Classifier built on Kaufman Efficiency Ratio, lag-1 autocorrelation of returns, and ATR ratio; a Dragon momentum composite aggregating EMA, RSI, MACD, and TRIX into 5 buckets; and a Pulsar flow composite aggregating OBV, CVD, and price-vs-flow divergences into 5 buckets. The full 5×5 Dragon × Pulsar grid is evaluated only inside the MIXED regime, where four specific bucket combinations carry a statistically significant edge after Bonferroni correction across all 25 cells.
The four surviving cells correspond to two long setups and two short setups. The strongest long edge sits at the intersection of strong bullish momentum and still-neutral flow — the pre-alignment phase where price has turned but order flow hasn't fully confirmed. Full alignment between momentum and flow tends to mark exhaustion. The same asymmetry holds in reverse for the short cells.
Each surviving cell carries a Normal prior representing its expected edge and the uncertainty around it. The Bayesian engine is the heart of the indicator: as the script runs, every walk-forward observation matching a cell updates that cell's prior through a conjugate Normal-Normal step, producing a posterior that shrinks prior and live evidence together via precision weighting. When live samples are few, the posterior stays close to the prior, and the cell relies on its original estimate. When live samples accumulate, the posterior tracks reality and the original prior fades.
Each cell is then assigned a status based on its posterior credible interval. **BORN** means not enough live data yet. **OK** means the credible interval excludes zero with the expected sign and the magnitude remains close to the prior. **DRIFT** means the sign is still correct, but the edge has weakened substantially. **DEAD** means the credible interval includes zero, or the sign has inverted — the cell has lost its edge and is automatically blocked from firing. This is the core defensive feature: strategies decay, and when one of the four cells decays, the Bayesian engine stops trusting it without any manual intervention.
Alerts in strict mode restrict firing to primary cells only (±2).
Permissive mode allows secondary cells (±1) as well.
The dashboard shows the live state of all four cells side by side: prior, posterior with credible interval, sample count, and status. Everything else — the cyberpunk palette, the segmented trend wedges in stay-out zones, the optional alien mascot rotating to follow the local trend — is visual feedback layered on top of the same Bayesian rule.
Enjoy,
By Oberlunar 👁⭐
Indicator
