Volume-Supported Linear Regression Trend TableThe "Volume-Supported Linear Regression Trend Table" (VSLRT Table) script helps traders identify buy and sell opportunities by analyzing price trends and volume dynamics across multiple timeframes. It uses linear regression to calculate the trend direction and volume strength, visually representing this data with color-coded signals on the chart and in a table. Green signals indicate buying opportunities, while red signals suggest selling, with volume acting as confirmation of trend strength. Traders can use these signals for both short and long positions, with additional risk management and multi-timeframe validation to enhance the strategy.
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To use the "Volume-Supported Linear Regression Trend Table" (VSLRT Table) script in a trading strategy, you would incorporate it into your decision-making process to identify potential buy and sell opportunities based on the trend and volume dynamics. Here’s how you could apply it for trading:
1. Understanding the Key Elements:
Trend Direction (Slope of Price): The script uses linear regression to assess the trend direction of the price. If the price slope is positive, the asset is likely in an uptrend; if it's negative, the asset is in a downtrend.
Volume-Backed Signals: The buy or sell signal is not only based on the price trend but also on volume. Volume is crucial in validating the strength of a trend; large volume often indicates strong interest in a direction.
2. Interpreting the Table and Signals:
The table displayed at the bottom-right of your PulseWire chart gives you a clear overview of the trends across different timeframes:
Trend Colors:
Green hues (e.g., ccol11, ccol12, etc.): Indicate a buying trend supported by volume.
Red hues (e.g., ccol21, ccol22, etc.): Indicate a selling trend supported by volume.
Gray: Indicates weak or unclear trends where no decisive direction is present.
Buy/Sell Signals:
The script plots triangles on the chart:
Upward triangle below the bar signals a potential buy.
Downward triangle above the bar signals a potential sell.
3. Building a Trading Strategy:
Here’s how you can incorporate the script’s information into a trading strategy:
Buy Signal (Long Entry):
Look for green triangles (indicating a buy signal) below a bar.
Confirm that the trend color in the table for the relevant timeframe is green, which shows that the buy signal is supported by strong volume.
Ensure that the price is in an uptrend (positive slope) and that volume is increasing on upward moves, as this indicates buying interest.
Execute a long position when these conditions align.
Sell Signal (Short Entry):
Look for red triangles (indicating a sell signal) above a bar.
Confirm that the trend color in the table for the relevant timeframe is red, which shows that the sell signal is supported by strong volume.
Ensure that the price is in a downtrend (negative slope) and that volume is increasing on downward moves, indicating selling pressure.
Execute a short position when these conditions align.
Exiting the Trade:
Exit a long position when a sell signal (red triangle) appears, or when the trend color in the table shifts to red.
Exit a short position when a buy signal (green triangle) appears, or when the trend color in the table shifts to green.
4. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation:
The script provides trends across multiple timeframes (tf1, tf2, tf3), which can help in validating your trade:
Short-Term Trading: Use shorter timeframes (e.g., 3, 5 minutes) for intraday trades. If both short and medium timeframes align in trend direction (e.g., both showing green), it strengthens the signal.
Longer-Term Trading: If you are trading on a higher timeframe (e.g., daily or weekly), confirm that the lower timeframes align with your intended trade direction.
5. Adding Risk Management:
Stop-Loss: Place stop-losses below recent lows (for long trades) or above recent highs (for short trades) to minimize risk.
Take Profit: Consider taking profit at key support/resistance levels or based on a fixed risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., 2:1).
Example Strategy Flow:
For Long (Buy) Trade:
Signal: A green triangle appears below a candle (Buy signal).
Trend Confirmation: Check that the color in the table for your selected timeframe is green, confirming the trend is supported by volume.
Execute Long: Enter a long trade if the price is trending upward (positive price slope).
Exit Long: Exit when a red triangle appears above a candle (Sell signal) or if the trend color shifts to red in the table.
For Short (Sell) Trade:
Signal: A red triangle appears above a candle (Sell signal).
Trend Confirmation: Check that the color in the table for your selected timeframe is red, confirming the trend is supported by volume.
Execute Short: Enter a short trade if the price is trending downward (negative price slope).
Exit Short: Exit when a green triangle appears below a candle (Buy signal) or if the trend color shifts to green in the table.
6. Fine-Tuning:
Backtesting: Before trading live, use PulseWire’s backtesting features to test the strategy on historical data and optimize the settings (e.g., length of linear regression, timeframe).
Combine with Other Indicators: Use this strategy alongside other technical indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) for better confirmation.
In summary, the script helps identify trends with volume support, giving more confidence in buy/sell decisions. Combining these signals with risk management and multi-timeframe analysis can create a solid trading strategy. Indicator
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Absolute Momentum (Time Series Momentum)Absolute momentum , also known as time series momentum , focuses on the trend of an asset's own past performance to predict its future performance. It involves analyzing an asset's own historical performance, rather than comparing it to other assets.
The strategy determines whether an asset's price is exhibiting an upward (positive momentum) or downward (negative momentum) trend by assessing the asset's return over a given period (standard look-back period: 12 months or approximately 250 trading days). Some studies recommend calculating momentum by deducting the corresponding Treasury bill rate from the measured performance.
Absolute Momentum Indicator
The Absolute Momentum Indicator displays the rolling 12-month performance (measured over 250 trading days) and plots it against a horizontal line representing 0%. If the indicator crosses above this line, it signifies positive absolute momentum, and conversely, crossing below indicates negative momentum. An additional, optional look-back period input field can be accessed through the settings.
Hint: This indicator is a simplified version, as some academic approaches measure absolute momentum by subtracting risk-free rates from the 12-month performance. However, even with higher rates, the values will still remain close to the 0% line.
Benefits of Absolute Momentum
Absolute momentum, which should not be confused with relative momentum or the momentum indicator, serves as a timing instrument for both individual assets and entire markets.
Gary Antonacci , a key contributor to the absolute momentum strategy (find study below), emphasizes its effectiveness in multi-asset portfolios and its importance in long-only investing. This is particularly evident in a) reducing downside volatility and b) mitigating behavioral biases.
Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen document significant 'time series momentum' across various asset classes, including equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures, in 58 liquid instruments (find study below). There's a notable persistence in returns ranging from one to 12 months, which tends to partially reverse over longer periods. This pattern aligns with sentiment theories suggesting initial under-reaction followed by delayed over-reaction.
Despite its surprising ease of implementation, the academic community has successfully measured the effects of absolute momentum across decades and in every major asset class, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange (FX).
Strategies for Implementing Absolute Momentum:
To Buy a Stock:
Select a Look-Back Period: Choose a historical period to analyze the stock's performance. A common period is 12 months, but this can vary based on your investment strategy.
Calculate Excess Return: Determine the stock's excess return over this period. You can also assume a risk-free rate of "0" to simplify the process.
Evaluate Momentum:
If the excess return is positive, it indicates positive absolute momentum. This suggests the stock is in an upward trend and could be a good buying opportunity.
If the excess return is negative, it suggests negative momentum, and you might want to delay buying.
Consider further conditions: Align your decision with broader market trends, economic indicators, or fundamental analysis, for additional context.
To Sell a Stock You Own:
Regularly Monitor Performance: Use the same look-back period as for buying (e.g., 12 months) to regularly assess the stock's performance.
Check for Negative Momentum: Calculate the excess return for the look-back period. Again, you can assume a risk-free rate of "0" to simplify the process. If the stock shows negative momentum, it might be time to consider selling.
Consider further conditions:Align your decision with broader market trends, economic indicators, or fundamental analysis, for additional context.
Important note: Note: Entering a position (i.e., buying) based on positive absolute momentum doesn't necessarily mean you must sell it if it later exhibits negative absolute momentum. You can initiate a position using positive absolute momentum as an entry indicator and then continue holding it based on other criteria, such as fundamental analysis.
General Tips:
Reassessment Frequency: Decide how often you will reassess the momentum (monthly, quarterly, etc.).
Remember, while absolute momentum provides a systematic approach, it's recommendable to consider it as part of a broader investment strategy that includes diversification, risk management, fundamental analysis, etc.
Relevant Capital Market Studies:
Antonacci, Gary. "Absolute momentum: A simple rule-based strategy and universal trend-following overlay." Available at SSRN 2244633 (2013)
Moskowitz, Tobias J., Yao Hua Ooi, and Lasse Heje Pedersen. "Time series momentum." Journal of financial economics 104.2 (2012): 228-250
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Trend Oscillatorwhat is "Trend Oscillator"?
it is an indicator for determining the trend.
what it does?
analyzes the price action by reducing it to 4 different situations. Red means strong bear, orange means bearish, yellow means weak bull and green means strong bull. It was developed to help traders who trade in the direction of the trend and its biggest promise is to simplify price action.
how it does it?
He defines 4 different situations as follows. If the velocity of the price is positive and the acceleration is positive, it is a strong bull, if the velocity is positive and the acceleration is negative, it is a weak bull, if the velocity is negative and the acceleration is positive, it is a weak bear, if both velocity and acceleration are negative, it is a strong bear.
2 for strong bull
1 for the weak bull
-1 for weak bear
Creates a function that takes values of -2 for the strong bear. this function is the velocity of the principal indicator, and then the integral of this function forms the principal indicator.
how to use it?
"source" is used to change the source of the indicator,
"length" makes the indicator give a later but less signal.
you can use it to follow or analyze the trend. colors make it easy to use. learns about current or past trends by looking at colors. Like any trend indicator, it can give unsuccessful signals in a horizontal trend. Indicator
