Stock Intrinsic Value & MOS IndicatorStock Intrinsic Value and MOS Indicator is a powerful tool that can help investors to evaluate the potential value of a particular stock. By taking into account key financial metrics such as earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, and dividend yield, this indicator provides a comprehensive analysis of a company's fundamentals, and can be used to estimate its intrinsic value.
To use this indicator, simply input the relevant financial metrics for the stock you're interested in from Yahoo finance, including the P/E ratio, earnings per share, and dividend yield. The indicator will then calculate the stock's intrinsic value based on these inputs, taking into account the company's earnings potential and dividend payments.
In addition to calculating the intrinsic value, the Stock Intrinsic Value and MOS Indicator also allows investors to add a margin of safety to their analysis, which can help to account for unexpected market events or uncertainties. By adding a margin of safety of 20% - 30%, for example, investors can ensure that they are buying the stock at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, providing a cushion against potential losses.
Using the Stock Intrinsic Value and MOS Indicator can be a valuable tool for investors looking to make informed decisions about their investments. By taking into account key financial metrics and adding a margin of safety, investors can be more confident in their investment decisions, and can potentially maximize their returns over the long-term.
However, it's important to remember that the Stock Intrinsic Value and MOS Indicator is just one tool among many that investors can use to evaluate potential investments. As with any investment strategy, it's important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Additionally, it's important to keep in mind that no investment strategy is foolproof, and that even the most well-informed investment decisions can still result in losses.
Overall, the Stock Intrinsic Value and MOS Indicator can be a valuable tool for investors looking to evaluate potential investments and make informed decisions about their portfolio. By using this indicator in combination with other tools and strategies, investors can potentially maximize their returns and achieve their long-term investment goals.
Indicator
Price Distance RatioThis study plots the ratio between current price and the price N days ago.
With N input that is configurable, users can find optimal long/short entries when price is in an established trend and price has diverge far from a given local peak or all time high.
With many years of stock trading the analysis indicates a connection between the distance of price and subsequent returns.
Portfolios of stocks with lower price to local highes ratios generally underperformed portfolios of stocks with higher prices to peaks reached similar N days ago.
The highest returns to previous peak are recorded when buying at the biggest dip.
For example, the purchase at 20% drawdown could generate 25% when price returns to the peak. The purchase at 50% drawdown could generate bigger, i.e. 100% return, when price returns to the peak. And the purchase at 90% drawdown could generate much bigger, i.e. 900% return, in a case the price returns to the peak.
However, buying very far below local peaks on almost all holding periods produces lower CAGR returns because of "timing adjustment". In simple words, typically the drawdown takes less time vs. further recovery.
For example:
👉 The largest BTC drawdown in 2013-2015 took 410 days (Peak-to-Valley) . And the recovery of BTC to new highs took 771 days (Valley-to-Peak) after that.
👉 The 3rd longest drawdown in BTC took 363 days (observed from December 17, 2017 to December 15, 2018). And further recovery in BTC to its new high took almost two years - 716 days .
👉The 4th longest drawdown in BTC took 162 days (observed from June 08, 2011 to November 17, 2011). And further recovery in BTC to its new high took more than a year - 469 days .
The concept of this study could recognizes at least 4 different modes of action.
👉 In a clearly established upward trend traders should be buying (following the trend) when Ratio is above 100% and reducing the size when Ratio turns below 100%.
👉 Conversely, in a clearly established downward trend traders should be shorted when Ratio is below 100% and covering when the Ratio turns back to 100%.
👉 In a sideways movement traders are advised to wait carefully if the Ratio near 100% for a long time, and take a position the trend is clear.
👉 Chartists can analyze the dynamic of the indicator - both in terms of trends and overall level. For example as it shown at the chart.
The understading of the study and rules of "timing adjustments" could genarate the awesome opportunities for stock options traders also, with strategies of selling uncovered call options and vertical call spreads.
// Many thanks to @HPotter and @Wheeelman wizards for their continious support and assistance.
Indicator
world stage indexThis is an indicator that expresses the ratio of "stage1" and "stage4" of world index.
40 symbols are as follows
(JAPAN, US, EUROPE, and CANADA)
OSE:NK2251!, DJ:DJI, NASDAQ:IXIC, SP:SPX, XETR:DAX, TVC:CAC40, TVC:UKX, TSX:TSX
(ASIA)
TVC:SHCOMP, SZSE:399001, TVC:HSI, TWSE:TAIEX, BSE:SENSEX, OANDA:SG30SGD, INDEX:KSI, SET:SET
(EUROPE)
INDEX:SX5E, INDEX:FTSEMIB, SIX:SMI, BME:IBC, EURONEXT:BEL20, TVC:AEX, OMXCOP:OMXC25, XETR:0Q5X
(Pacific Ocean)
ASX:XJO, TVC:NZ50G, IDX:COMPOSITE, FTSEMYX:FBMKLCI, BMFBOVESPA:IBOV, BMV:ME, BVL:SPBLPGPT, BYMA:IMV
(Eastern Europe & Middle East)
MOEX:IMOEX, GPW:WIG20, OMXHEX:OMXH25, OMXSTO:OMXS30, DFM:DFMGI, TADAWUL:TASI, OSE:GNRI, EGX:EGX30
The criteria are as follows:
EMA5≧EMA20≧EMA40 : Stage1
EMA5≦EMA20≦EMA40 : Stage4
A.The sum of Stage1 was multiplied by 2.5 and drawn on a scale of 0 to 100, with yellow area
B.The Sum of Stage4 was multiplied by 2.5 and drawn on a scale of 0 to 100, with blue area.
C. The ratio of A/B was multiplied by 2.5 and drawn on a scale of 0 to 100, with red lines.
This idea is from Kojirou Kousi.
40 symbols of this script are partially different from Kojiro kousi's idea.
But he said the difference isn't matter.
「小次郎講師指数」に着想を得た、世界40カ国の株価指数stage状態です。
参考文献は、小次郎講師著書「世界一わかりやすい投資の勝ち方」です。
小次郎講師とは一部異なるシンボルを採用していますが、
多少の違いは余り大した問題では無いと御本人から教わった事があります。
先進国に関してはおそらくほとんど同じだと思います。
stage1の合計の%を黄色、stage4の合計の%を青色、stage1の合計/stage4の合計の%を赤で表示しています。
雰囲気で分かればいいので、正確な数字までは表示しませんでした。
個人的には現状分析以外にも、プラクティス時に世界情勢を把握するのに重宝しています。
Indicator
Divergence of Stocks Above MA50 v.s. US-Stock MarketEnglish:
This indicator has been developed as an early warning tool to estimate the probability of correction in the US stock market. It works best in the daily chart.
Function:
1.) "Index-line"
The underlying stock index is converted to a scale between 0% and 100% based on its 52-week highs and lows. Where 100% is closing price at 52-week high and 0% is closing price at 52-week low.
2nd) "Stocks Above MA50".
For each major stock index, there is an index that determines the percentage of stocks above its 50 moving average. For example, for the S&P 500, this is the S5FI.
3) "Divergence
In an efficient market, both lines (index and number of stocks above the 50 MA) would run more or less in sync. A new high in the index would also mean a new high in the stocks trading above the 50 moving average. Often, however, a correction in the index is announced when the number of stocks trading above their 50 MA do not make a new, or even a lower, high while the underlying index marks a new high. The divergence signal measures this divergence of the indices. The higher the bar, the more pronounced the divergence.
How to read the indicator?
If a divergence occurs, then the stops should be tightened. As with any indicator, false signals can occur because a divergence does not automatically lead to a correction. The higher the divergence is indicated, the higher the probability. The strength of a correction cannot be predicted with the indicator.
For which symbols does the indicator work?
The indicator works exclusively for the following symbols:
S&P500: SPX, SPY, ES1!, US500 Index above MA50: S5FI
Russel2000: IWM, US2000, RTY1!, RUT, IWO Index above MA50: R2FI
NASDAQ100: NDX, NAS100, NQ1!, US100, QQQ Index above MA50: NDFI
NASDAQ: IXIC, ONEQ, QCN1!, NDAQ Index above MA50: NCFI
NYSE: XAX, NYA Index above MA50: MMFI
DowJones100: DJX, DJI, DIA, MYM1!, YM1! Index above MA50: DIFI
DowJonesComp: DOW, IYY Index above MA50: DCFI
Deutsch:
Dieser Indikator ist als Frühwarninstrument zur Einschätzung der Korrekturwahrscheinlichkeit im US-Aktienmarkt entwickelt worden. Er funktioniert am besten im Tages-Chart.
Funktion:
1.) „Index-line“
Der zugrunde liegende Aktienindex wird bezogen auf seine 52Wochen Hochs und Tiefs in eine Skala zwischen 0% und 100% umgerechnet. Dabei sind 100% Schlusskurs auf 52-Wochen Hoch und 0% Schlusskurs auf 52-Wochen Tief.
2.) „Stocks Above MA50“
Zu jedem Hauptaktienindex gibt es einen Index, der den Prozentwert der Aktien über Ihrem 50 gleitenden Durchschnitt ermittelt. Beim S&P 500 ist das z.B. der S5FI.
3.) „Divergence“
In einem effizienten Markt würden beide Linien (Index und Anzahl Aktien über dem 50 MA) mehr oder weniger synchron laufen. Ein neues Hoch im Index würde auch ein neues Hoch bei den Aktien, die über dem 50 gleitenden Durchschnitt notieren, bedeuten. Oft jedoch kündigt sich eine Korrektur im Index an, wenn die Anzahl der Aktien, die über ihrem 50 MA notieren kein neues, oder sogar ein niedrigeres Hoch machen, während der zu Grunde liegende Index ein neues Hoch markiert. Das Divergenz-Signal misst diese auseinanderlaufen der Indices. Je höher der Balken, umso stärker ist die Divergenz ausgeprägt.
Wie ist der Indikator zu lesen?
Wenn eine Divergenz auftritt, dann sollten die Stopps enger herangezogen werden. Es kann wie bei jedem Indikator zu Fehlsignalen kommen, da eine Divergenz nicht automatisch zu einer Korrektur führen muss. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ist um so höher, je höher die Divergenz angezeigt wird. Die Stärke einer Korrektur kann mit dem Indikator nicht prognostiziert werden.
Für welche Symbole funktioniert der Indikator?
Der Indikator funktioniert ausschließlich für folgende Symbole:
S&P500: SPX, SPY, ES1!, US500 Index über MA50: S5FI
Russel2000: IWM, US2000, RTY1!, RUT, IWO Index über MA50: R2FI
NASDAQ100: NDX, NAS100, NQ1!, US100, QQQ Index über MA50: NDFI
NASDAQ: IXIC, ONEQ, QCN1!, NDAQ Index über MA50: NCFI
NYSE: XAX, NYA Index über MA50: MMFI
DowJones100: DJX, DJI, DIA, MYM1!, YM1! Index über MA50: DIFI
DowJonesComp: DOW, IYY Index über MA50: DCFI
Indicator
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