Volatility Pressure & Regime AnalyzerVolatility Pressure & Regime Analyzer
## What this script does
VPRA estimates **when a market is loading energy for an outsized move, how large that move could be, and whether the current regime favors chasing or fading the breakout**. It condenses this into one on-chart verdict panel, directional signal markers, a regime ribbon, and a forecast of the expected move in ATR and points.
It works on **any symbol, any market, any timeframe**. A related volatility index and a companion symbol (the underlying if you chart a derivative, or vice versa) are optional inputs that sharpen the analysis; both can be disabled and the model renormalizes to price-only mode automatically.
## Why these components are combined (mashup justification)
Each module answers a question the others cannot, and the signal only fires when their answers agree. None of them is a stock indicator pasted alongside another — they are inputs to a single pressure model:
1. **Compression (ATR percentile)** answers *"is energy being stored?"* Quiet ranges precede expansion, but compression alone says nothing about direction or timing.
2. **Implied-vs-realized volatility dislocation** (optional vol index) answers *"is the options market mispricing the calm?"* A large gap between implied and realized volatility marks complacency or stress that compression alone cannot see.
3. **Basis tension** (optional companion symbol) answers *"is positioning leaning?"* Momentum in the derivative-to-underlying spread, and outright backwardation, reveal funding pressure and de-risking invisible in a single price series.
4. **Convexity and trend inefficiency** (return acceleration, efficiency ratio) answer *"is price behavior becoming unstable?"*
These four are blended into one **Pressure score (0–100)**, percent-ranked against its own history so thresholds adapt to every symbol and timeframe.
5. **A variance-ratio regime filter** answers *"will the break run or get faded?"* The ratio of k-bar to 1-bar return variance classifies the tape as mean-reverting (pinning) or trending (amplifying). Breakouts in a pinning regime are statistically more likely to fail, so the script can label or skip them.
6. **A multi-timeframe trend filter (Ichimoku cloud bias on the chart TF + three higher TFs)** answers *"is the release direction supported by structure?"* It grades signals rather than generating them. Higher-timeframe values are taken from **closed bars by default, so the confluence grade does not repaint**.
7. **Session, expiry, gap and event context** scale the expected-move forecast: an expiry-afternoon release during a volatility spike forecasts a larger move than a sleepy mid-session one.
Removing any module degrades a specific, named capability — that is the test the combination was built to pass.
## How a signal is generated
A marker prints only when **all** of the following align: pressure has reached a high percentile of its own history within a short lookback ("loaded"), the current bar shows a genuine range expansion ("release"), the condition persists for a confirmation bar count, a debounce gap has passed, and (optionally) the regime and trend filters pass. Direction is scored from **trigger-break** (close beyond the prior N-bar extreme), **close location** within the bar, and short momentum.
Marker color encodes the inferred event type: expiry-session releases, volatility-co-movement squeezes (price and vol index moving together — a short-covering tell), or plain expansions. The glow ring encodes how many higher timeframes agree. An ⓘ label stores a full diagnostic snapshot (pressure, regime, instability, basis, energy, session, expected move) in its tooltip for every signal.
## How to use it
- Apply to a liquid symbol; set "This chart is" to Derivative or Underlying, point the companion and volatility-index inputs at your market's related symbols (or disable them), and set your session hours and expiry weekday.
- Read the panel top-down: **Regime** (chase vs fade), **Pressure/Energy** (how loaded), **Move size** (forecast), **Trend align / HTF** (structure), **Triggers** (the price levels that confirm).
- Use the "Filter" modes to suppress signals against regime or higher-timeframe structure, or leave them as badges and judge manually.
- The advanced rows show per-type follow-through statistics (hit rate, average favorable and adverse excursion in ATR) and an early-vs-late history split as a coarse robustness check. **These are in-sample descriptive statistics, not a backtest.** A companion strategy script with identical logic is available for proper backtesting with costs.
- Alerts: per-signal dynamic alert with all values (webhook-ready), plus static conditions for expiry signals, releases, critical pressure, and vol shocks.
## Originality
The pressure blend (compression x vol-dislocation x basis tension x convexity x inefficiency, percent-rank normalized), the variance-ratio regime gate applied to breakout qualification, the compression-energy budget, and the per-type MFE/MAE statistics with an early/late split are original constructions written from first principles for this script. The only classical components used are public-domain building blocks (ATR, Bollinger/Keltner-style compression logic via ATR percentile, Ichimoku cloud bias as a trend filter, Kaufman efficiency ratio), each justified above.
## Limitations (please read)
- Dealer-positioning effects (often discussed as gamma/vanna/charm) are **inferred from price, volatility and basis behavior**. This script does not and cannot read option-chain open interest. Labels such as "gamma blast" describe an expiry-session release pattern, not a measured dealer position.
- All on-panel statistics are computed on the loaded chart history and will differ across symbols, timeframes and history length.
- Higher-timeframe confluence uses closed HTF bars by default (no repaint); the current chart bar still forms in real time, as with any script.
- Expected-move figures are model estimates, not guarantees.
This script is for education and analysis. It is **not financial advice**; trade at your own risk and test before use.
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