Exogenous Heatmap [invincible3]Exogenous Heatmap
The Exogenous Heatmap is a multi-country macro and market-performance dashboard designed to help traders and investors monitor external economic forces that may influence currencies, equities, commodities, and broader risk sentiment.
Instead of focusing only on price action from the current chart, this indicator visualizes key exogenous variables across major economies in a clean historical heatmap format. Users can compare countries by interest rates, GDP growth, balance of trade, foreign exchange reserves, and major stock index performance.
The indicator supports two calculation modes:
1. Raw Value
Displays the actual macroeconomic value or stock index performance for each country.
2. Differential vs Base
Compares each country against a selected base country. This is useful for identifying relative macro strength or weakness. For example, if the base country is set to the USA, the indicator shows how Australia, Japan, the UK, Europe, China, and other countries compare against the United States.
The heatmap includes the following datasets:
Interest Rates and Differentials
Displays policy interest rates or interest-rate differentials between countries. This is especially useful for forex analysis because higher relative interest rates can influence capital flows and currency strength.
GDP and Differentials
Displays GDP year-over-year growth or GDP growth differentials. This helps identify which economies are expanding faster or slower relative to the selected base country.
Balance of Trade and Differentials
Displays trade balance data. A stronger trade surplus may indicate external demand strength, while a deficit may reflect import pressure or weaker export competitiveness.
Reserves and Differentials
Displays foreign exchange reserve levels. This can help assess external liquidity strength and a country’s ability to manage currency or balance-of-payment stress.
Stock Index Performance and Differentials
Displays the performance of major stock indexes from leading economies. This adds a global risk-on/risk-off component to the indicator. Strong equity index performance may reflect improving investor sentiment, while weak performance may signal risk aversion.
The default stock index symbols include:
Australia: ASX 200
Canada: TSX Composite
China: Shanghai Composite
Europe: Euro Stoxx 50
Japan: Nikkei 225
New Zealand: NZX 50
Switzerland: SMI
United Kingdom: FTSE 100
United States: S&P 500
Users can manually change these symbols from the settings panel if they prefer alternative benchmarks.
Example 1: Interest Rate Differential
Suppose the selected dataset is Interest Rates and Differentials and the base country is set to USA .
If:
USA interest rate = 5.50%
Japan interest rate = 0.50%
Then Japan’s differential versus the USA is:
0.50% - 5.50% = -5.00 pp
This means Japan’s policy rate is 5.00 percentage points lower than the USA. In the heatmap, this would appear as a negative differential and would be colored toward the negative side of the gradient.
Example 2: Stock Index Performance Differential
Suppose the selected dataset is Stock Index Performance and Differentials and the timeframe is set to Monthly .
If:
USA S&P 500 monthly return = +4.20%
Japan Nikkei 225 monthly return = +2.10%
Then Japan’s stock index performance differential versus the USA is:
2.10% - 4.20% = -2.10 pp
This means Japan’s equity market underperformed the USA by 2.10 percentage points during that monthly period.
Example 3: Raw Stock Index Performance
If the calculation mode is set to Raw Value , the indicator displays each country’s own index return for the selected period.
For example:
USA: +4.20%
Japan: +2.10%
UK: -1.30%
Europe: +0.80%
This allows users to quickly identify which regions are leading or lagging in global equity performance.
Color Interpretation
Positive values are shown using the positive color gradient.
Negative values are shown using the negative color gradient.
Neutral or near-zero values are shown near the neutral color.
The indicator includes both automatic and manual color scaling. Auto Scale adjusts the heatmap based on the strongest visible value, while Manual Scale lets the user set a fixed range for more consistent comparisons.
How Traders Can Use It
Forex traders can use interest-rate and GDP differentials to evaluate relative currency strength.
Macro traders can use trade balance and reserve data to identify external economic pressure or resilience.
Equity and index traders can use global stock index performance to track international risk sentiment.
Commodity traders can use the dashboard as a macro backdrop because global growth, rates, and risk appetite often influence commodity demand and capital flows.
Important Notes
For percentage-based datasets such as interest rates, GDP growth, and stock index returns, differential values are displayed in percentage points, abbreviated as “pp.”
For balance of trade and reserves, raw values may often be more meaningful than differentials because countries may report values in different scales or currencies.
This indicator is designed as a macro and risk-sentiment visualization tool. It should be used together with technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and proper risk management.
Indicator
10Y Yield Spread - Auto FX Pair10Y Yield Spread — Auto FX Pair
Automatically displays the 10-year government bond yield spread for the FX pair currently on your chart. Switch from EURUSD to USDJPY to GBPAUD and the indicator instantly recalculates — no manual reconfiguration needed.
What it shows
The spread between the base currency's 10Y yield and the quote currency's 10Y yield, expressed in basis points. For example:
USD/JPY → US10Y minus JP10Y
EUR/USD → DE10Y (Bund) minus US10Y
GBP/AUD → GB10Y minus AU10Y
A positive spread (green) means the base currency offers a yield premium — historically a tailwind for the pair. A negative spread (red) means the opposite. The wider the spread, the stronger the rates differential pushing the pair.
Why it matters
Yield differentials are one of the most reliable medium-term drivers of major FX pairs. When the spread trends one way and the pair trends the other, you're often looking at a setup waiting to resolve — either the pair catches up, or the spread breaks. Particularly powerful for:
Carry trade decisions (positive spreads = positive carry on the long side)
Filtering FX trades against the macro backdrop
Spotting divergences between price and rates
Anticipating central bank repricing impact across pairs
Confirming or fading reactions to CPI, NFP, and rate decisions
Supported pairs
All combinations of the 8 majors: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF. Auto-detection works on standard naming (EURUSD, EUR/USD, OANDA:USDJPY, FX:GBPJPY, etc.). For exotic symbols or futures, switch to Manual mode and pick base/quote from the dropdowns.
Yield benchmarks used
USD → US10Y (US Treasury)
EUR → DE10Y (German Bund, eurozone benchmark)
JPY → JP10Y (JGB)
GBP → GB10Y (Gilt)
AUD → AU10Y
NZD → NZ10Y
CAD → CA10Y
CHF → CH10Y
Settings
Moving average : configurable SMA overlay (default 50) to smooth the spread trend
Zero line : visual reference for spread sign change
Background fill : green above zero, red below — instant regime read
End label : shows current pair and live spread value in bps
Pair detection : Auto (reads chart ticker) or Manual (override with dropdowns)
Recommended setup
Works on any FX chart timeframe from 15m to daily. For best results, pair this with my companion indicator Bond Yield Strength — 10Y Majors to see the full rates landscape alongside the specific spread of your pair.
Notes
DE10Y (German Bund) is used as the EUR proxy — it's the de facto eurozone benchmark used by rates desks globally. Data availability for some symbols depends on your PulseWire plan; if a yield doesn't render, your plan may not include that exchange.
Feedback and suggestions welcome. Indicator
Bond Yield Strength - 10Y MajorsBond Yield Strength — 10Y Majors
Track intraday momentum across the 8 major bond markets in a single panel. This indicator plots the change in 10-year government bond yields for USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD and CHF, normalized to a common starting point so you can instantly see which currencies are catching a bid in the rates market — and which are getting sold.
What it shows
Each line represents how far a country's 10Y yield has moved (in basis points or %) since the start of the current period. All 8 lines start at zero on each reset, making relative strength immediately readable. A line climbing above zero means yields are rising in that country (typically bullish for the currency); a line falling below zero means yields are dropping.
The eight benchmarks tracked:
USD → US10Y (US Treasury)
EUR → DE10Y (German Bund, the eurozone benchmark)
JPY → JP10Y (JGB)
GBP → GB10Y (Gilt)
AUD → AU10Y
NZD → NZ10Y
CAD → CA10Y
CHF → CH10Y
Why it's useful
Rate differentials drive FX. When US yields rip while Bunds stay flat, EUR/USD usually feels it. This indicator gives you that read at a glance, without flipping between 8 separate charts. Particularly useful for:
Spotting which currencies have a yield tailwind heading into a session
Confirming or fading FX moves against the rates backdrop
Watching the reaction to central bank decisions, CPI releases, and bond auctions across all majors simultaneously
Identifying outliers (one yield diverging from the pack often precedes an FX move)
Settings
Display unit : basis points (default, the standard rates unit) or percent
Reset period : Daily, Weekly, or Monthly — choose your lookback horizon
Line thickness : 1 to 4
End-of-line labels : toggle currency tags with live values at the right edge of the chart
Day separators : optional dashed verticals at each session boundary
Recommended setup
Apply on a 24-hour symbol (e.g. FX:EURUSD or any major forex pair) on a 15m to 1h timeframe — bond symbols themselves don't trade overnight, so the chart's time axis needs to come from a continuously-quoted instrument. You can hide the underlying price plot via the chart's visibility toggle to keep only the yield indicator on screen.
Notes
DE10Y (German Bund) is used as the EUR proxy — it's the de facto eurozone benchmark used by rates desks globally. Data availability for some symbols depends on your PulseWire plan; if a yield doesn't render, your plan may not include that exchange.
Feedback and suggestions welcome. Indicator
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[KF] Multi-Duration Rate Expectations IndicatorAfter last fed cut in Oct then following jump in rates, I was frustrated at not having access to good rate expectations vs actual because the market usually prices in prior to fed action. This indicator was developed to make futures market rate expectations accessible and interpretable without requiring professional bond analytics systems.
Summary
This Pine Script indicator reveals what the futures market expects for interest rates across three key durations: Fed Funds (overnight), 2-Year, and 10-Year Treasury yields. By comparing futures-implied rates against current spot yields, it provides a clear visual signal of whether the market expects rates to rise, fall, or remain steady.
Understanding Rate Futures
Fed Funds futures (ZQ1!) use a simple design where the expected rate equals 100 minus the futures price. If ZQ1! trades at 96.12, the market expects a 3.88% Fed Funds rate. Treasury futures work differently - they trade as bond prices (typically 102-115) that move inversely to yields. Converting Treasury futures to implied yields requires complex bond mathematics involving duration and conversion factors.
This indicator solves the Treasury futures complexity by implementing a self-calibrating sensitivity model. It observes the historical relationship between futures prices and yields, then uses this to project rate expectations. The model also compares front-month to next-month contracts to detect expected rate direction, automatically adapting as market conditions change.
How to Use
Add the indicator to any chart and select your desired duration in the settings. The display shows the futures-implied rate, current yield, and the difference between them. Green indicates the market expects higher rates, red means lower expectations, and gray shows expectations in line with current rates.
The indicator excels at identifying divergences between market expectations and current rates, which often precede rate movements or futures repricing. Comparing expectations across different durations reveals insights about yield curve positioning and Fed policy anticipation.
Technical Note
While Fed Funds futures provide exact rate expectations, Treasury futures conversions are sophisticated approximations that provide reliable directional signals and reasonable magnitude estimates sufficient for most trading applications. Indicator
US/SPY- Financial Regime Index Swing Strategy Credits: concept inspired by EdgeTools Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index (Proxy)
Improvements: eight component basket, inverse volatility weights, winsorization option( statistical technique used to limit the influence of outliers in a dataset by replacing extreme values with less extreme ones, rather than removing them entirely), slope and price gates, exit guards, table and gradients.
Summary in one paragraph
A macro regime swing strategy for index ETFs, futures, FX majors, and large cap equities on daily calculation with optional lower time execution. It acts only when a composite Financial Conditions proxy plus slope and an optional price filter align. Originality comes from an eight component macro basket with inverse volatility weights and winsorized return z scores that produce a portable yardstick.
Scope and intent
Markets: SPY and peers, ES futures, ACWI, liquid FX majors, BTC, large cap equities.
Timeframes: calculation daily by default, trade on any chart.
Default demo: SPY on Daily.
Purpose: convert broad financial conditions into clear swing bias and exits.
Originality and usefulness
Unique fusion: return z scores for eight liquid proxies with inverse volatility weighting and optional winsorization, then slope and price gates.
Failure mode addressed: false starts in chop and early shorts during easy liquidity.
Testability: all knobs are inputs and the table shows components and weights.
Portable yardstick: z scores center at zero so thresholds transfer across symbols.
Method overview in plain language
Base measures
Return basis: natural log return over a configurable window, standardized to a z score. Winsorization optional to cap extremes.
Components
EQ US and EQ GLB measure equity tone.
CREDIT uses LQD over HYG. Higher credit quality outperformance is risk off so sign is flipped after z score.
RATES2Y uses two year yield, sign flipped.
SLOPE uses ten minus two year yield spread.
USD uses DXY, sign flipped.
VOL uses VIX, sign flipped.
LIQ uses BIL over SPY, sign flipped.
Each component is smoothed by the composite EMA.
Fusion rule
Weighted sum where weights are equal or inverse volatility with exponent gamma, normalized to percent so they sum to one.
Signal rule
Long when composite crosses up the long threshold and its slope is positive and price is above the SMA filter, or when composite is above the configured always long floor.
Short when composite crosses down the short threshold and its slope is negative and price is below the SMA filter.
Long exit on cross down of the long exit line or on a fresh short signal.
Short exit on cross up of the short exit line or on a fresh long signal, or when composite falls below the force short exit guard.
What you will see on the chart
Markers on suggestion bars: L for long, S for short, LX and SX for exits.
Reference lines at zero and soft regime bands at plus one and minus one.
Optional background gradient by regime intensity.
Compact table with component z, weight percent, and composite readout.
Table fields and quick reading guide
Component: EQ US, EQ GLB, CREDIT, RATES2Y, SLOPE, USD, VOL, LIQ.
Z: current standardized value, green for positive risk tone where applicable.
Weight: contribution percent after normalization.
Composite: current index value.
Reading tip: a broadly green Z column with slope positive often precedes better long context.
Inputs with guidance
Setup
Calc timeframe: default Daily. Leave blank to inherit chart.
Lookback: 50 to 1500. Larger length stabilizes regimes and delays turns.
EMA smoothing: 1 to 200. Higher smooths noise and delays signals.
Normalization
Winsorize z at ±3: caps extremes to reduce one off shocks.
Return window for equities: 5 to 260. Shorter reacts faster.
Weighting
Weight lookback: 20 to 520.
Weight mode: Equal or InvVol.
InvVol exponent gamma: 0.1 to 3. Higher compresses noisy components more.
Signals
Trade side: Long Short or Both.
Entry threshold long and short: portable z thresholds.
Exit line long and short: soft exits that give back less.
Slope lookback bars: 1 to 20.
Always long floor bfci ≥ X: macro easy mode keep long.
Force short exit when bfci < Y: macro stress guard.
Confirm
Use price trend filter and Price SMA length.
View
Glow line and Show component table.
Symbols
SPY ACWI HYG LQD VIX DXY US02Y US10Y BIL are defaults and can be changed.
Realism and responsible publication
No performance claims. Past is not future.
Shapes can move intrabar and settle on close.
Execution is on standard candles only.
Honest limitations and failure modes
Major economic releases and illiquid sessions can break assumptions.
Very quiet regimes reduce contrast. Use longer windows or higher thresholds.
Component proxies are ETFs and indexes and cannot match a proprietary FCI exactly.
Strategy notice
Orders are simulated on standard candles. All security calls use lookahead off. Nonstandard chart types are not supported for strategies.
Entries and exits
Long rule: bfci cross above long threshold with positive slope and optional price filter OR bfci above the always long floor.
Short rule: bfci cross below short threshold with negative slope and optional price filter.
Exit rules: long exit on bfci cross below long exit or on a short signal. Short exit on bfci cross above short exit or on a long signal or on force close guard.
Position sizing
Percent of equity by default. Keep target risk per trade low. One percent is a sensible starting point. For this example we used 3% of the total capital
Commisions
We used a 0.05% comission and 5 tick slippage
Legal
Education and research only. Not investment advice. Test in simulation first. Use realistic costs.
Strategy
Fed Rate Change Impact📊 Fed Rate Change Impact — Macro Event-Driven Indicator
Fed Rate Change Impact is an advanced indicator designed to analyze the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate changes on financial markets. It integrates event-driven logic with dynamic visualization, percentage diagnostics, and multi-asset selection, offering a clear and customizable view of post-event effects.
🔍 Key Features 📅 Preloaded Fed Events : Includes over 30 historical rate cut (↓) and hike (↑) dates from 2008 to 2024.
📈 Post-Event Analysis : Calculates the percentage change of the selected asset 5, 10, and 30 days after each event.
📌 Vertical Chart Lines : Visually highlights each event directly on the chart, with dynamic coloring (red for hikes, green for cuts).
📋 Diagnostic Table : Displays real-time impact for each event, with color-coded values and a compact layout.
🧠 Interactive Filter: Choose to display only hikes, only cuts, or both.
🧭 Flexible Asset Selection : Analyze the current chart asset, pick from a predefined list, or manually input any ticker via input.symbol().
🎯 Contextual Highlighting : The table highlights the analyzed asset if it matches the active chart symbol.
⚙️ Customizable Parameters lookahead5, lookahead10, lookahead30: Define the time horizon for measuring post-event impact.
eventFilter : Choose which type of events to display.
presetAsset / customAsset : Select or input the asset to analyze.
🧪 Recommended Use Cases Macroeconomic analysis on indices, commodities, crypto, and forex
Studying delayed effects of rate changes on sensitive assets
Building event-driven strategies or diagnostic overlays
Visual backtesting and cross-asset comparison
🧠 Technical Notes The indicator is compatible with overlay=true and works best on Daily timeframe.
The table automatically adapts to the number of events and includes visual padding for improved readability.
All calculations are performed in real time and require no external data. Indicator
Inflation IndicatorThis script provides a great view of Year-over-Year (YoY) inflation rates for key countries.
The inflation data used per default are PulseWire Tickers, but you can change them to anything you want from the settings.
There is no calculation in this script, all it does is providing a overview of inflation rates in a single indicator.
Inflation data for the USA, European Union, Australia, Canada, Switzerland, Japan, United Kingdom, and New Zealand (Inflation Symbols editable in the settings)
Customizable static line to indicate a specific threshold value (default: 2.0).
Table displaying country flags, names, and the latest inflation rates.
Country-representative colors for easy identification.
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Central Bank Interest RatesThis indicator will show central bank interest rates on any major currency pairs.
I included the last 10 values for the study and will update them with future changes.
Major currencies: USD, CAD, NZD, AUD, JPY, EUR, CHF, GBP
I might add CZK, TRY, ZAR, and Yuan in the future. Indicator
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