Bitcoin Logarithmic MACD Risk Metric (W, M)Description
The Bitcoin Logarithmic MACD Risk Metric (W, M) is a long-term macro analysis tool designed to identify generational buying and selling opportunities for Bitcoin. By applying logarithmic and linear regression models to the Logarithmic MACD (LMACD), this indicator normalizes price momentum relative to historical market cycle extremes.
Unlike standard MACD, the logarithmic version used here accounts for Bitcoin's exponential growth over time, allowing for a consistent comparison of momentum across different cycles.
IMPORTANT: Timeframe Compatibility
Note: This indicator is strictly designed for Weekly (W) and Monthly (M) timeframes. The regression lines won't show on other timeframes.
The regression lines (Log and Linear fits) were calculated using data points from these high-level timeframes because they contain less "noise" and are far more reliable for predicting global cyclical tops and bottoms.
It is highly recommended to wait for the candle close on the respective timeframe to confirm any signal, as mid-candle fluctuations can significantly alter the Risk Metric value.
How to Use It
The metric provides a "Risk" score between 0 and 1, visualizing where Bitcoin sits within its historical growth channel.
Sell Zone (Red): When the LMACD line enters the red zone, it indicates that Bitcoin is overbought and potentially nearing a cyclical peak.
Buy Zone (Green): When the LMACD drops into the green zone, it suggests the asset is oversold and approaching a cyclical bottom.
Confluence: While these zones have historically marked major reversals, this indicator should not be used in isolation. Always seek confluence with other technical or fundamental indicators.
Customizable Settings
Line Fits: You can choose between "Log Fit" and "Linear Fit" for both Top and Bottom lines to see which model best aligns with your current analysis.
View Mode: Switch between Fit Lines (seeing the MACD inside the channel) or Normalized (viewing the risk as a 0-1 oscillator).
Risk Levels: Adjust the thresholds for the Buy and Sell zones to fit your risk tolerance.
Price Overlay: Toggle the candle coloring on the main chart to see risk levels directly on the price action.
VIsualization Tip
If the price overlay makes the chart look too cluttered, you can hide the Bitcoin price bars in the main chart settings to focus purely on the colored risk overlay. Alternatively, you can disable the "Plot on Main Pane" option in the indicator settings if you only want to see the metric in its own separate pane below.
Limitations
Asset Focus: This indicator is specifically calibrated for Bitcoin. While you can apply it to other charts, the indicator pane will always display Bitcoin's MACD risk, whereas the price overlay will color the candles of the currently selected instrument.
Fixed Parameters: The LMACD settings (12, 26, Close) are hardcoded. This is intentional, as the regression fitting was performed specifically using these values; changing them would make the historical bands irrelevant.
Hardcoded Coefficients: The regression lines are based on historical tops and bottoms up to 2023. Future market cycles may require new approximations if Bitcoin's volatility profile shifts significantly.
Regression Specifics: The Linear Fit model treats the early 2011 peaks/bottoms as outliers. On the Monthly timeframe, the bottom line is available only as a linear fit due to the limited number of historical macro data points. The upper linear boundary is guaranteed to be broken by future price action, but it can serve as a "conservative" macro target in the meantime.
No Guarantees: Past performance does not guarantee future results. There is no certainty that the metric will reach the boundaries in every cycle or remain within them indefinitely.
Indicator
