Reactive Curvature Smoother Moving Average IndicatorSummary in one paragraph
RCS MA is a reactive curvature smoother for any liquid instrument on intraday through swing timeframes. It helps you act only when context strengthens by adapting its window length with a normalized path energy score and by smoothing with robust residual weights over a quadratic fit, then optionally blending a capped one step forecast. Add it to a clean chart and watch the single colored line. Shapes can shift while a bar forms and settle on close. For conservative use, judge on bar close.
Scope and intent
• Markets: major FX pairs, index futures, large cap equities, liquid crypto
• Timeframes: one minute to daily
• Purpose: reduce lag in trends while resisting chop and outliers
• Limits: indicator only, no orders
Originality and usefulness
• Novelty: adaptive window selection by minimizing normalized path energy with directionality bias, plus Huber weighted residuals and curvature aware penalty, finished with a mintick capped forecast blend
• Failure modes addressed: whipsaws from fixed length MAs and outlier spikes that pull means
• Testable: Inputs expose all components and optional diagnostics show chosen length, directionality, and energy
• Portable yardstick: forecast cap uses mintick to stay symbol aware
Method overview in plain language
Base measures
• Range span of the tested window and a path energy defined as the sum of squared price increments, normalized by span
Components
Adaptive window chooser: scans L between Min and Max using an energy over trend score and picks the lowest score
Robust smoother: fits a quadratic to the last L bars, computes residuals, applies Huber weights and an exponential residual penalty scaled down when curvature is high
Forecast blend: projects one step ahead from the quadratic, caps displacement by a multiple of mintick, blends by user weight
Fusion rule
• Final line equals robust mean plus optional capped forecast blend
Signal rule
• Visual bias only: color turns lime when close is above the line, red otherwise
What you will see on the chart
• One colored line that tightens in trends and relaxes in chop
• Optional debug overlays for core value, chosen L, directionality, and energy
• Optional last bar label with L, directionality, and energy
• Reminder: drawings can move intrabar and settle on close
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Source: price series to smooth
Logic
• Min window l_min. Typical 5 to 21. Higher increases stability, adds lag
• Max window l_max. Typical 40 to 128. Higher reduces noise, adds lag ceiling
• Length step grid_step. Typical 1 to 8. Smaller is finer and heavier
• Trend bias trend_bias. Typical 0.50 to 0.80. Higher favors trend persistence
• Residual penalty lambda_base. Typical 0.8 to 2.0. Higher downweights large residuals more
• Huber threshold huber_k. Typical 1.5 to 3.0. Higher admits more outliers
• Curvature guard curv_guard. Typical 0.3 to 1.0. Higher reduces influence when curve is tight
• Forecast blend lead_blend. 0 disables. Typical 0.10 to 0.40
• Forecast cap lead_limit. Typical 1 to 5 minticks
• Show chosen L and metrics show_debug. Diagnostics toggle
Optional: enable diagnostics to see length, direction, and energy
Realism and responsible publication
• No performance claims. Past results never guarantee future outcomes
• Shapes can move while bars are open and settle on close
• Use on standard candles for analysis and combine with your own risk process
Honest limitations and failure modes
• Very quiet regimes can reduce energy contrast, length selection may hover near the bounds
• Gap heavy symbols can disrupt quadratic fit on the window edges
• Excessive forecast blend may look anticipatory; use low values and the cap Indicator
Fair Value Lead-Lag Model [BackQuant]Fair Value Lead-Lag Model
A cross-asset model that estimates where price "should" be relative to a chosen reference series, then tracks the deviation as a normalized oscillator. It helps you answer two questions: 1) is the asset rich or cheap vs its driver, and 2) is the driver leading or lagging price over the next N bars.
Concept in one paragraph
Many assets co-move with a macro or sector driver. Think BTC vs DXY, gold vs real yields, a stock vs its sector ETF. This tool builds a rolling fair value of the charted asset from a reference series and shows how far price is above or below that fair value in standard deviation units. You can shift the reference forward or backward to test who leads whom, then use the deviation and its bands to structure mean-reversion or trend-following ideas.
What the model does
Reference mapping : Pulls a reference symbol at a chosen timeframe, with an optional lead or lag in bars to test causality.
Fair value engine : Converts the reference into a synthetic fair value of the chart using one of four methods:
Ratio : price/ref with a rolling average ratio. Good when the relationship is proportional.
Spread : price minus ref with a rolling average spread. Good when the relationship is additive.
Z-Score : normalizes both series, aligns on standardized units, then re-projects to price space. Good when scale drifts.
Beta-Adjusted : rolling regression style. Uses covariance and variance to compute beta, then builds a fair value = mean(price) + beta * (ref − mean(ref)).
Deviation and bands : Computes a z-scored deviation of price vs fair value and plots sigma bands (±1, ±2, ±3) around the fair value line on the chart.
Correlation context : Shows rolling correlation so you can judge if deviations are meaningful or just noise when co-movement is weak.
Visuals :
Fair value line on price chart with sigma envelopes.
Deviation as a column oscillator and optional line.
Threshold shading beyond user-set upper and lower levels.
Summary table with reference, deviation, status, correlation, and method.
Why this is useful
Mean reversion framework : When correlation is healthy and deviation stretches beyond your sigma threshold, probability favors reversion toward fair value. This is classic pairs logic adapted to a driver and a target.
Trend confirmation : If price rides the fair value line and deviation stays modest while correlation is positive, it supports trend persistence. Pullbacks to negative deviation in an uptrend can be buyable.
Lead-lag discovery : Shift the reference forward by +N bars. If correlation improves, the reference tends to lead. Shift backward for the reverse. Use the best setting for planning early entries or hedges.
Regime detection : Large persistent deviations with falling correlation hint at regime change. The relationship you relied on may be breaking down, so reduce confidence or switch methods.
How to use it step by step
Pick a sensible reference : Choose a macro, index, currency, or sector driver that logically explains the asset’s moves. Example: gold with DXY, a semiconductor stock with SOXX.
Test lead-lag : Nudge Lead/Lag Periods to small positive values like +1 to +5 to see if the reference leads. If correlation improves, keep that offset. If correlation worsens, try a small negative value or zero.
Select a method :
Start with Beta-Adjusted when the relationship is approximately linear with drift.
Use Ratio if the assets usually move in proportional terms.
Use Spread when they trade around a level difference.
Use Z-Score when scales wander or volatility regimes shift.
Tune windows :
Rolling Window controls how quickly fair value adapts. Shorter equals faster but noisier.
Normalization Period controls how deviations are standardized. Longer equals stabler sigma sizing.
Correlation Length controls how co-movement is measured. Keep it near the fair value window.
Trade the edges :
Mean reversion idea : Wait for deviation beyond your Upper or Lower Threshold with positive correlation. Fade back toward fair value. Exit at the fair value line or the next inner sigma band.
Trend idea : In an uptrend, buy pullbacks when deviation dips negative but correlation remains healthy. In a downtrend, sell bounces when deviation spikes positive.
Read the table : Deviation shows how many sigmas you are from fair value. Status tells you overvalued or undervalued. Correlation color hints confidence. Method tells you the projection style used.
Reading the display
Fair value line on price chart: the model’s estimate of where price should trade given the reference, updated each bar.
Sigma bands around fair value: a quick sense of residual volatility. Reversions often target inner bands first.
Deviation oscillator : above zero means rich vs fair value, below zero means cheap. Color bins intensify with distance.
Correlation line (optional): scale is folded to match thresholds. Higher values increase trust in deviations.
Parameter tips
Start with Rolling Window 20 to 30, Normalization Period 100, Correlation Length 50.
Upper and Lower Threshold at ±2.0 are classic. Tighten to ±1.5 for more signals or widen to ±2.5 to focus on outliers.
When correlation drifts below about 0.3, treat deviations with caution. Consider switching method or reference.
If the fair value line whipsaws, increase Rolling Window or move to Beta-Adjusted which tends to be smoother.
Playbook examples
Pairs-style reversion : Asset is +2.3 sigma rich vs reference, correlation 0.65, trend flat. Short the deviation back toward fair value. Cover near the fair value line or +1 sigma.
Pro-trend pullback : Uptrend with correlation 0.7. Deviation dips to −1.2 sigma while price sits near the −1 sigma band. Buy the dip, target the fair value line, trail if the line is rising.
Lead-lag timing : Reference leads by +3 bars with improved correlation. Use reference swings as early cues to anticipate deviation turns on the target.
Caveats
The model assumes a stable relationship over the chosen windows. Structural breaks, policy shocks, and index rebalances can invalidate recent history.
Correlation is descriptive, not causal. A strong correlation does not guarantee future convergence.
Do not force trades when the reference has low liquidity or mismatched hours. Use a reference timeframe that captures real overlap.
Bottom line
This tool turns a loose cross-asset intuition into a quantified, visual fair value map. It gives you a consistent way to find rich or cheap conditions, time mean-reversion toward a statistically grounded target, and confirm or fade trends when the driver agrees. Indicator
Leading T3Hello Fellas,
Here, I applied a special technique of John F. Ehlers to make lagging indicators leading. The T3 itself is usually not realling the classic lagging indicator, so it is not really needed, but I still publish this indicator to demonstrate this technique of Ehlers applied on a simple indicator.
The indicator does not repaint.
In the following picture you can see a comparison of normal T3 (purple) compared to a 2-bar "leading" T3 (gradient):
The range of the gradient is:
Bottom Value: the lowest slope of the last 100 bars -> green
Top Value: the highest slope of the last 100 bars -> purple
Ehlers Special Technique
John Ehlers did develop methods to make lagging indicators leading or predictive. One of these methods is the Predictive Moving Average, which he introduced in his book “Rocket Science for Traders”. The concept is to take a difference of a lagging line from the original function to produce a leading function.
The idea is to extend this concept to moving averages. If you take a 7-bar Weighted Moving Average (WMA) of prices, that average lags the prices by 2 bars. If you take a 7-bar WMA of the first average, this second average is delayed another 2 bars. If you take the difference between the two averages and add that difference to the first average, the result should be a smoothed line of the original price function with no lag.
T3
To compute the T3 moving average, it involves a triple smoothing process using exponential moving averages. Here's how it works:
Calculate the first exponential moving average (EMA1) of the price data over a specific period 'n.'
Calculate the second exponential moving average (EMA2) of EMA1 using the same period 'n.'
Calculate the third exponential moving average (EMA3) of EMA2 using the same period 'n.'
The formula for the T3 moving average is as follows:
T3 = 3 * (EMA1) - 3 * (EMA2) + (EMA3)
By applying this triple smoothing process, the T3 moving average is intended to offer reduced noise and improved responsiveness to price trends. It achieves this by incorporating multiple time frames of the exponential moving averages, resulting in a more accurate representation of the underlying price action.
Thanks for checking this out and give a boost, if you enjoyed the content.
Best regards,
simwai
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Credits to @loxx Indicator
Indicator
Leading Economic Indicator (LEI)The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is a groundbreaking technical indicator designed to serve as a comprehensive measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the United States. This unique index combines two key economic indicators: the Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is a globally recognized indicator that assesses the future direction of economic trends by analyzing various leading economic factors. The ISM PMI, on the other hand, provides insights into the business activities of both the manufacturing and services sectors. LEI merges these critical indicators into a single, holistic indicator that empowers traders and investors to grasp the broader economic outlook and the performance of essential economic sectors simultaneously.
By taking into account the CLI and PMI, LEI offers a distinctive perspective, enabling a more accurate assessment of the potential direction of US financial markets.
Usage:
To utilize LEI effectively, it is recommended to apply it on a monthly timeframe (TF Monthly). This extended timeframe is particularly beneficial for investors with a medium to long-term horizon. By focusing on longer-term trends and market stability, LEI becomes an invaluable tool in your investment strategy.
One of the primary applications of LEI is to gauge the risk of market corrections in US financial markets, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices. Analysts often observe the crossing of the 5-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) with the 10-period SMA. When the 5-period SMA falls below the 10-period SMA, it serves as a potential warning signal for an impending market correction. This feature provides traders with an opportunity to exercise caution and make well-informed investment decisions.
LEI, with its unique blend of the OECD CLI and ISM PMI, provides a reliable tool for assessing the US economic climate, identifying trends, and making informed decisions in the financial markets. It stands as a reference indicator, capturing the essence of economic trends and providing valuable insights to traders and investors.
Sources:
- OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI): www.data.oecd.org
- Purchasing Managers' Index: ISM Report on Business (PMI) www.ismworld.org Indicator
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a widely recognized economic indicator that provides crucial insights into the health and performance of an economy's manufacturing and services sectors. This index is a vital tool for anticipating economic developments and trends, offering an early warning system for changes in these sectors.
The PMI is calculated based on surveys conducted among purchasing managers in various businesses and organizations. These managers are asked about their perceptions of current business conditions and their expectations for future economic activity within their sectors. The responses are then compiled and used to calculate the PMI value.
A PMI value above 50 typically indicates that the manufacturing or services sector is expanding, suggesting a positive economic outlook. Conversely, a PMI value below 50 suggests contraction, which may be an early indication of economic challenges or a potential recession.
In summary, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an essential economic indicator that assesses the health of manufacturing and services sectors by surveying purchasing managers' opinions. It serves as an early warning system for changes in economic activity and is a valuable tool for forecasting economic trends and potential crises.
This code combines the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data with two Simple Moving Averages (SMA) and some visual elements.
Let's break down how this indicator works:
1. Loading PMI Data:
The indicator loads data for the "USBCOI" symbol, which represents the PMI data. It fetches the monthly closing prices of this symbol.
2. Calculating Moving Averages:
Two Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are calculated based on the PMI data. The first SMA, sma_usbcoi, has a length defined by the input parameter (default: 2). The second SMA, sma2_usbcoi, has a different length defined by the second input parameter (default: 14).
3. Color Coding and Thresholds:
The line color of the PMI plot is determined based on the value of the PMI. If the PMI is above 52, the color is teal; if it's below 48, the color is red; otherwise, it's gray. These threshold values are often used to identify specific conditions in the PMI data.
4. Crossing Indicator:
A key feature of this indicator is to determine if the PMI crosses the first SMA (sma_usbcoi) from top to bottom while also being above the value of 52. This is indicated by the crossedUp variable. This condition suggests a specific situation where the PMI crosses a short-term moving average while indicating strength (above 52).
5. Visual Elements:
A "💀" skull emoji is defined as skullEmoji.
The PMI is plotted on the chart with color coding based on its value, as described earlier.
The two SMAs are also plotted on the chart.
When the crossedUp condition is met (PMI crosses the first SMA from top to bottom while above 52), a skull emoji (indicating potential danger) is plotted at the top of the indicator window. Indicator
US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI)The US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), normalized for the United States, closely mirrors the Conference Board "Leading Economic Index" (LEI). It offers unique insights into economic and financial dynamics.
The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is an economic tool designed to anticipate economic developments. It is created by aggregating and normalizing a wide range of economic and financial data from various sources.
The normalized data is then aggregated, and a composite indicator is calculated by taking a weighted average of individual indicators.
The CLI is used to provide early insights into the state of the economy and to anticipate future economic trends. It is particularly valuable for predicting economic downturns, including recessions.
The CLI is an essential tool for economists, governments, businesses, and investors seeking to understand economic trends and make informed decisions.
Key Features:
1. Early Warning: Just like its counterpart, the CLI indicator excels at offering early warnings about significant economic events, particularly economic crises. This makes it an indispensable asset for analysts and investors.
2. Recession Indicators: The moving average serves as an early warning system for potential economic recessions. When it crosses the indicator line from the bottom to the top while surpassing a predefined threshold (e.g., 101), it signals a potential crisis.
3. Market Impact: The CLI indicator provides valuable insights into the performance of financial markets, offering cues about indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and more.
Why It Matters:
Understanding the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) indicator, normalized for the United States, is crucial for anticipating economic shifts and preparing for changes in financial markets. By analyzing a diverse array of economic factors, it provides a holistic view of economic well-being. Whether you're an investor or economist, this indicator can be an invaluable resource for staying informed about market trends and major economic developments.
Source:
www.data.oecd.org Indicator
Munich GuppyWELCOME to the Munich Guppy!
This is a simple moving average indicator that will help you determine the trend of your chart using historical moving averages.
The indicator consists of 3 EMA's and one ALMA moving average. Using these 4 moving averages I have programmed the relationship between the moving averages to color the background of your chart.
If your background is red, this means that the alma moving average has fallen below the EMA's (EMA1 and EMA 2) as well as (EMA 1 and EMA 2) are postured in a down trending/up trending fashion
For example, the 21EMA is greater than the 55EMA, this signals that the chart has been outperforming its intermediate averages. Now if the ALMA is below both the 21ema and 55ema, in this instance, your chart background will become green.
The ALMA has color options '+CoC' and '-Coc', this simply means if the candle closes below the alma, it will turn red, if closure above it will turn green.
EMA 3 which is default set to 200, has no affect on the color of the background.
Now I hope I have thoroughly explained the simplicity of this indicator, if you have any questions leave them below or private message me for any other requests,
Good Trading!
-CheatCode1 Indicator
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Strategy
[blackcat] L2 Ehlers Leading IndicatorLevel: 2
Background
John F. Ehlers introuced Leading Indicator in his "Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures" chapter 16 on 2004.
Function
The leading characteristic is present in the net filte.As predicted, the lead is one bar at very low frequencies. That is, the trend indication will lead by one bar. However, the net filter has a lag of approximately 2.5 bars for cycle components near 20-bar cycles. Also, higher-frequency lag settles down to be about half a bar. The interpretation of the lag response is that the filter predicts a continuation of a trend by 1 bar, lags abrupt changes by about 0.5 bars, and lags smooth changes that can be fitted by segments of a 20-bar sinewave by as much as 2.5 bars. That’s the law of physics—you cannot get something for nothing. Causal filters can have a predictive capability over some portion of the frequency response, but not at all frequencies. There is no magic predictor.
Key Signal
NetLead ---> Leading Indicator fast line
EMA ---> Leading Indicator slow line
Pros and Cons
100% John F. Ehlers definition translation of original work, even variable names are the same. This help readers who would like to use pine to read his book. If you had read his works, then you will be quite familiar with my code style.
Remarks
The 35th script for Blackcat1402 John F. Ehlers Week publication.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy. Indicator
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