Bitcoin Power-Law, Halvings & Wyckoff Model (Macro 1W/1M)An advanced Bitcoin macro analysis tool on weekly (1W) and monthly (1M) time frames. The script automatically maps global BTC cycles by combining the Power-Law mathematical model, Halving cyclicality, and precise institutional market geometry according to Richard Wyckoff's methodology.
How does the indicator work? (Key Pillars)
1. Bitcoin Power-Law Model
The script calculates the time elapsed since the birth of the Bitcoin network (the so-called Genesis Block – January 3, 2009). Based on a logarithmic scale, it marks four fixed long-term trend lines:
- Blue Line (Fair Value): Shows Bitcoin's mathematical fair value, around which the market has been fluctuating for over a decade.
- Purple Line (Medium-Term Ceiling): Marks historical market overheating zones and bull market bubble peaks.
- Green Line (Price Floor): Key macro support level, marking the ultimate market bottom during the greatest capitulation.
- Red Line: A safety band running deep below the chart, constituting the ultimate boundary of the uptrend.
2. Halving Cycles (Halving Counter)
The indicator automatically locates past and future miner reward events on the timeline (including the upcoming Halving in April 2028). It plots vertical orange dashed lines with labels on the chart, allowing you to instantly assess which phase of the 4-year cycle the price is currently in.
3. Wyckoff Pattern Detection Macro (Post-Fact Drawing)
This indicator operates in a highly secure and conservative manner. It doesn't guess patterns in real time to avoid false signals during trends. Instead, it scans the market for flat consolidations (sideways ranges) only in extreme regions:
- Accumulation (Bear Bottoms): Searched only when the price is deep below the central axis (in the area of the green line).
- Distribution (Bull Tops): Searched only when the price is high above the central axis (in the area of the 2024-2025 highs).
Trigger Moment: When the market is building a sideways trend and the price officially crosses the 10-period moving average (SMA 10) (an upside breakout for accumulation or a downside breakdown for distribution), the algorithm validates the structure. In this split second, the script moves back on the chart for the designated period and plots the complete Wyckoff Anatomy using the spread: It draws automatic, horizontal support and resistance lines of the trading range (Trading Range).
It sets vertical black lines dividing the structure into official market sub-phases. It marks precise turning points:
- institutional capital: PS/PSY (Initial Support/Resistance),
- SC/BC (Selling/Buying Climax),
- AR (Automatic Rebound),
- ST (Secondary Test),
- Spring/UTAD (Clearing Liquidity Lows/Highs),
- LPS/LPSY (Last Support/Resistance Points)
- and PHASE E – the moment of releasing a new, powerful macro trend.
User Manual Interval:
The indicator was designed and calibrated exclusively for high time frames: 1 Week (1W) or 1 Month (1M).
Logarithmic Scale: In order for the Power-Law lines and labels to perfectly match the Bitcoin price chart and not "float" when scrolling the screen, you must have the logarithmic scale enabled on the PulseWire chart (click the Log button in the lower right corner of the screen).
Application: The tool is used to identify global turning points (wealth generation) – it allows you to buy Bitcoin in Phase E of macro accumulation and safely implement profits as Phase E distribution heralds the arrival of a bear market. Indicator
Intellect_city - Halvings Bitcoin CycleWhat is halving?
The halving timer shows when the next Bitcoin halving will occur, as well as the dates of past halvings. This event occurs every 210,000 blocks, which is approximately every 4 years. Halving reduces the emission reward by half. The original Bitcoin reward was 50 BTC per block found.
Why is halving necessary?
Halving allows you to maintain an algorithmically specified emission level. Anyone can verify that no more than 21 million bitcoins can be issued using this algorithm. Moreover, everyone can see how much was issued earlier, at what speed the emission is happening now, and how many bitcoins remain to be mined in the future. Even a sharp increase or decrease in mining capacity will not significantly affect this process. In this case, during the next difficulty recalculation, which occurs every 2014 blocks, the mining difficulty will be recalculated so that blocks are still found approximately once every ten minutes.
How does halving work in Bitcoin blocks?
The miner who collects the block adds a so-called coinbase transaction. This transaction has no entry, only exit with the receipt of emission coins to your address. If the miner's block wins, then the entire network will consider these coins to have been obtained through legitimate means. The maximum reward size is determined by the algorithm; the miner can specify the maximum reward size for the current period or less. If he puts the reward higher than possible, the network will reject such a block and the miner will not receive anything. After each halving, miners have to halve the reward they assign to themselves, otherwise their blocks will be rejected and will not make it to the main branch of the blockchain.
The impact of halving on the price of Bitcoin
It is believed that with constant demand, a halving of supply should double the value of the asset. In practice, the market knows when the halving will occur and prepares for this event in advance. Typically, the Bitcoin rate begins to rise about six months before the halving, and during the halving itself it does not change much. On average for past periods, the upper peak of the rate can be observed more than a year after the halving. It is almost impossible to predict future periods because, in addition to the reduction in emissions, many other factors influence the exchange rate. For example, major hacks or bankruptcies of crypto companies, the situation on the stock market, manipulation of “whales,” or changes in legislative regulation.
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Table - Past and future Bitcoin halvings:
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Date: Number of blocks: Award:
0 - 03-01-2009 - 0 block - 50 BTC
1 - 28-11-2012 - 210000 block - 25 BTC
2 - 09-07-2016 - 420000 block - 12.5 BTC
3 - 11-05-2020 - 630000 block - 6.25 BTC
4 - 20-04-2024 - 840000 block - 3.125 BTC
5 - 24-03-2028 - 1050000 block - 1.5625 BTC
6 - 26-02-2032 - 1260000 block - 0.78125 BTC
7 - 30-01-2036 - 1470000 block - 0.390625 BTC
8 - 03-01-2040 - 1680000 block - 0.1953125 BTC
9 - 07-12-2043 - 1890000 block - 0.09765625 BTC
10 - 10-11-2047 - 2100000 block - 0.04882813 BTC
11 - 14-10-2051 - 2310000 block - 0.02441406 BTC
12 - 17-09-2055 - 2520000 block - 0.01220703 BTC
13 - 21-08-2059 - 2730000 block - 0.00610352 BTC
14 - 25-07-2063 - 2940000 block - 0.00305176 BTC
15 - 28-06-2067 - 3150000 block - 0.00152588 BTC
16 - 01-06-2071 - 3360000 block - 0.00076294 BTC
17 - 05-05-2075 - 3570000 block - 0.00038147 BTC
18 - 08-04-2079 - 3780000 block - 0.00019073 BTC
19 - 12-03-2083 - 3990000 block - 0.00009537 BTC
20 - 13-02-2087 - 4200000 block - 0.00004768 BTC
21 - 17-01-2091 - 4410000 block - 0.00002384 BTC
22 - 21-12-2094 - 4620000 block - 0.00001192 BTC
23 - 24-11-2098 - 4830000 block - 0.00000596 BTC
24 - 29-10-2102 - 5040000 block - 0.00000298 BTC
25 - 02-10-2106 - 5250000 block - 0.00000149 BTC
26 - 05-09-2110 - 5460000 block - 0.00000075 BTC
27 - 09-08-2114 - 5670000 block - 0.00000037 BTC
28 - 13-07-2118 - 5880000 block - 0.00000019 BTC
29 - 16-06-2122 - 6090000 block - 0.00000009 BTC
30 - 20-05-2126 - 6300000 block - 0.00000005 BTC
31 - 23-04-2130 - 6510000 block - 0.00000002 BTC
32 - 27-03-2134 - 6720000 block - 0.00000001 BTC
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