Bitcoin Halving Cycle Strategy [Gabremoku]This script is a Bitcoin cycle timing indicator built around the historical halving structure.
The core idea is simple:
- define a Buy window a fixed number of days before each halving,
- define a Sell window a fixed number of days after each halving,
- project the next key dates directly on the chart.
The indicator does not try to predict price with oscillators, momentum formulas, or future-looking data. Instead, it focuses on a structural market rhythm that many Bitcoin traders monitor: the recurring supply shock created by halvings.
How it works
- The script uses known historical Bitcoin halving dates.
- It calculates a Buy date at halving minus N days.
- It calculates a Sell date at halving plus N days.
- It draws vertical reference lines for Buy, Halving, and Sell events.
- It plots historical labels on the actual event bars.
- It projects the upcoming Buy, Sell, and Halving labels forward to their own future dates on the chart.
- A dashboard summarizes the active cycle, next key date, and remaining days.
What makes this script useful
Most halving tools only mark the halving date itself. This script expands the concept into a complete cycle timeline by transforming each halving into three practical timing landmarks:
1. accumulation window before halving,
2. halving anchor point,
3. distribution window after halving.
This makes the script more useful for traders and investors who want a visual cycle map instead of a single event marker.
How to use it
- Apply it on BTCUSD or BTCUSDT.
- Daily and weekly charts are the most readable timeframes for this model.
- Use "Buy Days Before Halving" to control how early the accumulation window begins.
- Use "Sell Days After Halving" to control how long the post-halving window extends.
- Use the projected labels to monitor the next cycle dates in advance.
- Use the dashboard to read the current phase quickly.
Included features
- Historical halving timeline
- Buy and Sell event mapping
- Future projected labels positioned on future dates
- Optional cycle range highlighting
- Dashboard with next Buy, next Sell, next Halving, and countdown
- Custom colors and label controls
Important notes
- This script is a cycle visualization tool, not financial advice.
- It does not guarantee future market behavior.
- The projected future halving date is used as a timeline estimate for planning and visualization only.
- Past cycle behavior does not guarantee similar future performance.
- For clarity and to avoid misleading output, this script should be used on standard candlestick charts.
This publication is intended to provide a clean and practical timing framework for Bitcoin traders who study halving-driven market cycles rather than signal-based entry systems. Indicator
Bitcoin Halving Cycle PhasesBitcoin Halving Cycle Phases is a calendar-based visual indicator that highlights approximate Bitcoin halving cycle phase zones directly on the chart.
The indicator uses historical Bitcoin halving dates and predefined calendar phase boundaries to display different cycle regions, including Halving, Bullish, Bearish, Recovery, and Pre-halving phases. Future zones are projected using an approximate cycle length and are intended only as visual calendar references.
This script does not calculate price targets, buy or sell signals, trading entries, exits, stop losses, take profits, backtest results, or financial advice. The displayed future zones are approximate calendar projections only and should not be interpreted as forecasts or guaranteed market outcomes.
The indicator is designed for educational cycle visualization and long-term market context.
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Bitcoin Statistical Forecaster + Power Law [Gabremoku]Bitcoin Statistical Forecaster + Power Law combines two analytical layers into a single BTC-focused overlay.
The first layer is a statistical analog forecaster. It scans historical Bitcoin data and searches for the closest matches to the most recent pattern using a weighted multi-feature distance model based on candle structure, volatility, momentum, trend distance, and structural position relative to the Bitcoin power-law range.
The second layer is a long-term Bitcoin power-law framework built from three structural curves: Floor, Mid-Stair, and Fair Value. These curves are plotted directly from the power-law formula and are not altered by the forecasting engine.
The script is not a simple mashup of two unrelated tools. The power-law layer is used as structural context inside the forecaster itself: it contributes to analog selection, regime comparison, optional forecast anchoring, and optional probability adjustment. The goal is to make historical pattern matching more aware of where price is located inside Bitcoin’s broader long-term structure.
How the forecast works:
The script compares the latest pattern against historical BTC windows.
It keeps the best analogs according to the selected similarity method.
These analogs are separated into Bull, Central, and Bear groups using the final return at the selected forecast horizon.
For each step in the projection, each scenario path is built from the weighted average of its own analog group, so the paths remain internally coherent instead of mixing bullish and bearish trajectories.
An optional structural bias can softly pull projected prices toward the power-law range over time. This effect fades in progressively across the forecast horizon, so near-term projections are not abruptly distorted.
Scenario probabilities are derived from the same percentile thresholds used to build the Bull, Central, and Bear paths. This keeps the displayed percentages aligned with the projected paths shown on the chart.
The script is designed for daily Bitcoin charts and works best when enough historical data is available. It is a probabilistic context tool, not a prediction guarantee, and it should be used together with risk management and independent market analysis.
Suggested usage:
Use the power-law curves to identify long-term structural position.
Use the forecast paths to estimate how similar historical BTC conditions evolved.
Compare current price location, structural regime, and scenario probabilities before forming a directional bias.
Treat the output as a contextual model, not as a standalone trading signal. Indicator
Macro Clock Overlap 166/186/208) Anchored (v6)Macro Clock Overlap is a time-based market structure overlay designed to visualize cyclical pressure zones created by the interaction of three independent macro clocks:
166 weeks — Momentum / expansion cycle (anchored to a major weekly RSI peak)
186 weeks — Capitulation / contraction cycle (anchored to a weekly RSI < 30 trough)
208 weeks — Bitcoin halving cycle (protocol-defined supply shock)
Rather than attempting to predict price, this indicator highlights periods of structural instability where multiple cycles overlap — conditions that historically coincide with increased volatility, regime shifts, and non-linear market behavior.
How it works
Each cycle is projected forward and backward from a fixed anchor date.
Around each projected event, a configurable time window (± weeks) is applied.
For every bar, the script computes an Overlap Score (0–3):
0 — No active macro cycles
1 — Single cycle influence
2 — Reinforced cycle overlap (heightened instability)
3 — Rare full convergence (maximum structural stress)
The background shading reflects the current overlap score, and optional vertical lines mark projected cycle events for each clock.
What this indicator is (and isn’t)
✔ A probabilistic timing framework
✔ A way to identify volatility expansion and transition zones
✔ Useful for risk management, position sizing, and expectation setting
✘ Not a price prediction tool
✘ Not a buy/sell signal generator
✘ Not curve-fitted to price action
This tool is best used in conjunction with price structure, trend, and momentum analysis.
Customization
Anchor dates can be adjusted from the settings panel
Cycle lengths and window sizes are fully configurable
Visuals (background shading, vertical lines, table) can be toggled on/off
Designed for weekly charts, but works on any timeframe with macro intent.
Philosophy
Markets are not governed by a single clock.
They evolve through the interaction of multiple rhythms — internal momentum, stress accumulation, and external shocks.
Macro Clock Overlap makes those rhythms visible. Indicator
Bitcoin Halving Cycles [DotGain]Halving Cycles
A lightweight, time-anchored Bitcoin halving cycle visualizer built for clean charting, repeatable process planning, and simple profit/DCA timing references.
This Code was heavily inspired by KevinSvenson_ who created Bitcoin Halving Cycle Profit .
What this indicator does
This script plots the key “cycle landmarks” relative to each halving date:
Halving (⛏) – the cycle anchor
Profit START – marks the beginning of the post-halving profit window (default: 40 weeks )
Profit END / Last Call – marks the final phase of the profit window (default: 77 weeks )
DCA START – marks the point where long-term accumulation becomes the focus again (default: 135 weeks )
How to read it
Vertical lines = the exact cycle milestones
Bottom labels = description of each milestone aligned to its line (keeps the chart clean)
Green background (optional) = active Profit Zone on existing bars
Red background (optional) = optional warning zone after Profit END
HUD Panel (top-right)
The HUD gives you a fast “where are we in the cycle?” view with two modes:
Current Cycle
Shows: Halving date, Weeks since, and time remaining to Profit START / Last Call / DCA START within the current cycle.
Next Halving (Projection)
Shows: Countdown to the next enabled future halving, plus the projected weeks from today to Profit START / Last Call / DCA START after that future halving.
Future Halvings (manual)
You can manually add up to 3 future halving dates (Halving #1–#3).
This is useful for forward planning and cycle projection even before the event happens.
Enable Halving #1 / #2 / #3
Set Year / Month / Day for each
Optional: show/hide future markers & projections
Note: background zones only shade existing bars . Future projections are shown via lines/labels.
Settings overview
Show all cycles – plots every enabled cycle (historical + optional future). If disabled, only the current cycle is drawn.
Show Profit Zone background – green shading during the active profit window (current cycle only).
Show vertical markers + labels – toggles all milestone lines + labels.
Show HUD – toggles the HUD panel.
HUD Mode – switch between Current Cycle and Next Halving (Projection).
Cycle Logic – edit offsets in weeks (Profit START / Profit END / DCA START).
Optional Warning Zone – show a post-profit warning shading for a chosen number of weeks.
Have fun :)
Disclaimer
This Halving Cycles indicator is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not, and should not be construed as, financial, investment, or trading advice.
This indicator is an independent implementation of a time-based Bitcoin halving cycle visualization tool and is not affiliated with, or endorsed by, any third-party trading systems, strategies, protocols, or trademarked methodologies. The cycle zones, milestone markers, and countdown values displayed by this indicator are generated by a predefined set of algorithmic rules based on historical halving dates and user-defined time offsets. They do not constitute a direct recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument or digital asset.
All trading and investing in financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss. You may lose part or all of your invested capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This indicator highlights historical and projected time-based market cycles and may produce false, lagging, incomplete, or misleading signals. Market behavior is influenced by many external factors and can deviate significantly from historical patterns or expectations.
The creator DotGain assumes no responsibility or liability for any financial losses, damages, or decisions made based on the use of this indicator or the information it provides. You are solely responsible for your own trading and investment decisions. Always conduct your own research (DYOR), use proper risk management, validate insights with additional tools or analysis, and consider your personal financial situation and risk tolerance before making any financial decision. Indicator
Economic Event DatesThis PulseWire indicator ("Economic Event Dates") plots significant economic event dates directly on your chart, helping you stay informed about potential market-moving announcements. It includes pre-configured dates for:
* **FOMC Meetings:** Key policy meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee.
* **CPI Releases:** Consumer Price Index data releases, a key measure of inflation.
* **Bitcoin Halvings:** Programmatic reductions in Bitcoin's new supply issuance.
**Features:**
* **Customizable Dates:** Easily input and manage dates for FOMC, CPI, and Halving events for current and future years (2025, 2026, and beyond for Halvings).
* **Visual Cues:** Displays vertical lines on the chart at the precise time of each event.
* **Event Labels:** Shows clear labels (e.g., "FOMC", "CPI", "Halving") for each event line.
* **Color Coding:** Distinct colors for FOMC (blue), CPI (orange), and Halving (purple) events for quick identification.
* **Future Events Focus:** Option to display only upcoming events relative to the current real time.
* **Morning Alerts:** (Optional) Triggers an alert on the morning of a scheduled event, providing a timely reminder.
* **Customizable Appearance:** Adjust line width and toggle label visibility.
**How to Use:**
1. Add the indicator to your PulseWire chart.
2. Review and update the input dates for FOMC, CPI, and Halving events in the indicator settings. The script includes placeholders and notes for future dates that may require verification from official sources (e.g., federalreserve.gov, bls.gov).
3. Customize colors, line width, label visibility, and alert preferences as needed.
4. Observe the vertical lines on your chart indicating upcoming economic events.
This tool is designed for traders and investors who want to incorporate awareness of major economic events into their market analysis. Remember to verify future event dates as they are officially announced.
Created by YouNesta Indicator
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Intellect_city - Halvings Bitcoin CycleWhat is halving?
The halving timer shows when the next Bitcoin halving will occur, as well as the dates of past halvings. This event occurs every 210,000 blocks, which is approximately every 4 years. Halving reduces the emission reward by half. The original Bitcoin reward was 50 BTC per block found.
Why is halving necessary?
Halving allows you to maintain an algorithmically specified emission level. Anyone can verify that no more than 21 million bitcoins can be issued using this algorithm. Moreover, everyone can see how much was issued earlier, at what speed the emission is happening now, and how many bitcoins remain to be mined in the future. Even a sharp increase or decrease in mining capacity will not significantly affect this process. In this case, during the next difficulty recalculation, which occurs every 2014 blocks, the mining difficulty will be recalculated so that blocks are still found approximately once every ten minutes.
How does halving work in Bitcoin blocks?
The miner who collects the block adds a so-called coinbase transaction. This transaction has no entry, only exit with the receipt of emission coins to your address. If the miner's block wins, then the entire network will consider these coins to have been obtained through legitimate means. The maximum reward size is determined by the algorithm; the miner can specify the maximum reward size for the current period or less. If he puts the reward higher than possible, the network will reject such a block and the miner will not receive anything. After each halving, miners have to halve the reward they assign to themselves, otherwise their blocks will be rejected and will not make it to the main branch of the blockchain.
The impact of halving on the price of Bitcoin
It is believed that with constant demand, a halving of supply should double the value of the asset. In practice, the market knows when the halving will occur and prepares for this event in advance. Typically, the Bitcoin rate begins to rise about six months before the halving, and during the halving itself it does not change much. On average for past periods, the upper peak of the rate can be observed more than a year after the halving. It is almost impossible to predict future periods because, in addition to the reduction in emissions, many other factors influence the exchange rate. For example, major hacks or bankruptcies of crypto companies, the situation on the stock market, manipulation of “whales,” or changes in legislative regulation.
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Table - Past and future Bitcoin halvings:
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Date: Number of blocks: Award:
0 - 03-01-2009 - 0 block - 50 BTC
1 - 28-11-2012 - 210000 block - 25 BTC
2 - 09-07-2016 - 420000 block - 12.5 BTC
3 - 11-05-2020 - 630000 block - 6.25 BTC
4 - 20-04-2024 - 840000 block - 3.125 BTC
5 - 24-03-2028 - 1050000 block - 1.5625 BTC
6 - 26-02-2032 - 1260000 block - 0.78125 BTC
7 - 30-01-2036 - 1470000 block - 0.390625 BTC
8 - 03-01-2040 - 1680000 block - 0.1953125 BTC
9 - 07-12-2043 - 1890000 block - 0.09765625 BTC
10 - 10-11-2047 - 2100000 block - 0.04882813 BTC
11 - 14-10-2051 - 2310000 block - 0.02441406 BTC
12 - 17-09-2055 - 2520000 block - 0.01220703 BTC
13 - 21-08-2059 - 2730000 block - 0.00610352 BTC
14 - 25-07-2063 - 2940000 block - 0.00305176 BTC
15 - 28-06-2067 - 3150000 block - 0.00152588 BTC
16 - 01-06-2071 - 3360000 block - 0.00076294 BTC
17 - 05-05-2075 - 3570000 block - 0.00038147 BTC
18 - 08-04-2079 - 3780000 block - 0.00019073 BTC
19 - 12-03-2083 - 3990000 block - 0.00009537 BTC
20 - 13-02-2087 - 4200000 block - 0.00004768 BTC
21 - 17-01-2091 - 4410000 block - 0.00002384 BTC
22 - 21-12-2094 - 4620000 block - 0.00001192 BTC
23 - 24-11-2098 - 4830000 block - 0.00000596 BTC
24 - 29-10-2102 - 5040000 block - 0.00000298 BTC
25 - 02-10-2106 - 5250000 block - 0.00000149 BTC
26 - 05-09-2110 - 5460000 block - 0.00000075 BTC
27 - 09-08-2114 - 5670000 block - 0.00000037 BTC
28 - 13-07-2118 - 5880000 block - 0.00000019 BTC
29 - 16-06-2122 - 6090000 block - 0.00000009 BTC
30 - 20-05-2126 - 6300000 block - 0.00000005 BTC
31 - 23-04-2130 - 6510000 block - 0.00000002 BTC
32 - 27-03-2134 - 6720000 block - 0.00000001 BTC
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Ripple (XRP) Model PriceAn article titled Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model was published in March 2019 by "PlanB" with mathematical model used to calculate Bitcoin model price during the time. We know that Ripple has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. But does this correlation have a definite rule?
In this study, we examine the relationship between bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and the ripple(XRP) price.
The Halving and the stock-to-flow ratio
Stock-to-flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there.
SF = stock / flow
The term "halving" as it relates to Bitcoin has to do with how many Bitcoin tokens are found in a newly created block. Back in 2009, when Bitcoin launched, each block contained 50 BTC, but this amount was set to be reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years). Today, there have been three halving events, and a block now only contains 6.25 BTC. When the next halving occurs, a block will only contain 3.125 BTC. Halving events will continue until the reward for minors reaches 0 BTC.
With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio increased and Bitcoin experienced a huge bull market that absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But what exactly does this affect the price of Ripple?
Price Model
I have used Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and Ripple's price data from April 1, 2014 to November 3, 2021 (Daily Close-Price) as the statistical population.
Then I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the natural logarithm of the Ripple price and the natural logarithm of the Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF).
You can see the results in the image below:
Basic Equation : ln(Model Price) = 3.2977 * ln(BSF) - 12.13
The high R-Squared value (R2 = 0.83) indicates a large positive linear association.
Then I "winsorized" the statistical data to limit extreme values to reduce the effect of possibly spurious outliers (This process affected less than 4.5% of the total price data).
ln(Model Price) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214
If we raise the both sides of the equation to the power of e, we will have:
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Final Equation:
■ Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * BSF ^ 3.3297
Where BSF is Bitcoin's stock-to-flow
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If we put current Bitcoin's stock-to-flow value (54.2) into this equation we get value of 2.95USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model.
There is a power law relationship between the market price and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). Power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems.
I plotted XRP model price (black) over time on the chart.
Estimating the range of price movements
I also used several bands to estimate the range of price movements and used the residual standard deviation to determine the equation for those bands.
Residual STDEV = 0.82188
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 + Residual STDEV =>
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) – 11.392 =>
■ First-Upper-Band = Exp(-11.392) * BSF ^ 3.3297
In the same way:
■ First-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.036) * BSF ^ 3.3297
I also used twice the residual standard deviation to define two extra bands:
■ Second-Upper-Band = Exp(-10.570) * BSF ^ 3.3297
■ Second-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.858) * BSF ^ 3.3297
These bands can be used to determine overbought and oversold levels.
Estimating of the future price movements
Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future.
At the time of the next halving event, Bitcoins will be produced at a rate of 450 BTC / day. There will be around 19,900,000 coins in circulation by August 2025
It is estimated that during first year of Bitcoin (2009) Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin creator) mined around 1 million Bitcoins and did not move them until today. It can be debated if those coins might be lost or Satoshi is just waiting still to sell them but the fact is that they are not moving at all ever since. We simply decrease stock amount for 1 million BTC so stock to flow value would be:
BSF = (19,900,000 – 1.000.000) / (450 * 365) =115.07
Thus, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow will increase to around 115 until AUG 2025. If we put this number in the equation:
Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * 114 ^ 3.3297 = 36.06$
Ripple has a fixed supply rate. In AUG 2025, the total number of coins in circulation will be about 56,000,000,000. According to the equation, Ripple's market cap will reach $2 trillion.
Note that these studies have been conducted only to better understand price movements and are not a financial advice. Indicator
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Hashrate Mining of BiznesFilosofIn addition to technical analysis, you also need to pay attention to fundamental analysis. Bitcoin has one of these indicators, it is the network hashrate. And it’s important to know when mining becomes disadvantageous. Those. when network participants turn off the equipment. And there are critical points that depend on the price and number of miners in the network.
When the blue bars of the indicator grow, then you can stand in long. When stools are reduced, then it is time to close positions or hedge risks in the derivatives market.
The vertical line indicates halving.
A red flag indicates a dangerous moment, and a green flag indicates the time of purchase.
The oscillator is based on fundamental indicators and the intersection of moving averages.
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Кроме теханализа нужно ещё обращать внимание на фундаментальный анализ. У биткоина один из таких показателей, это хэшрейт сети. И важно зать, когда майнинг становится невыгоден. Т.е. когда участники сети отключают оборудование. И есть критические точки, зависящие от цены и количества майнеров в сети.
Когда синие столбики индикатора растут, тогда можно стоять в лонг. Когда столюики уменьшаются, тогда пора закрывать позиции или хеджировать риски на рынке деривативов.
Вертикальной линией обозначен халвинг.
Красный флаг показывает опасный момент, а зелёный флаг указывает на время покупок.
Осцилятор основан на фундаментальных показателях и пересечении скользящих средних. Indicator
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