Endogenous Macro Heatmap [invincible3] Endogenous Macro Heatmap
The Endogenous Macro Heatmap is a multi-factor macroeconomic dashboard designed to show the internal economic condition of a selected country in a compact table format directly on the chart.
Unlike cross-country or exogenous comparison models, this indicator focuses on domestic macro conditions : growth, production, demand, liquidity, rates, inflation, employment, fiscal position, debt pressure, and central bank balance sheet behavior.
The goal is to help traders, investors, and macro analysts quickly assess whether a country’s internal economic backdrop is improving, neutral, weakening, or entering a stress phase.
The indicator uses a heatmap structure so that changes in the macro environment can be understood visually. Stronger readings are shown through the positive color gradient, weaker readings through the negative color gradient, and balanced or transition zones through the neutral color.
What This Indicator Measures
The heatmap tracks a broad set of endogenous macro variables, including:
GDP year-over-year growth
Manufacturing production / manufacturing index
New orders or capacity utilization
Building permits, construction output, construction orders, or housing starts depending on the selected country
Retail sales year-over-year
Money supply
10-year government bond yield
Interest rate
Inflation year-over-year
Employment-related data
Debt-to-GDP
Government budget
Central bank balance sheet
Because macro data availability differs across countries, the script automatically substitutes certain fields where required. For example, some countries may use construction output, construction orders, housing starts, or capacity utilization depending on what is available in the PulseWire economic database.
Supported Countries
The dashboard currently supports:
United States
United Kingdom
Euro Area
Germany
France
Italy
Canada
Japan
China
Australia
South Korea
New Zealand
Each country uses its corresponding PulseWire economic code where available.
Composite Macro Score
The final Score column converts multiple macro readings into a single composite score from 0 to 100.
The score is grouped into four macro blocks:
1. Growth Block
Includes GDP, manufacturing, new orders, construction/building activity, retail sales, and employment.
This block has the largest weight because real economic momentum is the primary driver of macro regime strength.
2. Liquidity Block
Includes money supply and central bank balance sheet data.
This block helps identify whether domestic liquidity conditions are expanding or contracting.
3. Tightness Block
Includes 10-year yield and interest rate conditions.
This block helps measure whether financial conditions are becoming easier or tighter.
4. Stability Block
Includes inflation, debt/GDP, and government budget data.
This block helps detect macro pressure from inflation, fiscal stress, or excessive debt burden.
The composite score is weighted as follows:
Growth: 45%
Liquidity: 20%
Tightness: 20%
Stability: 15%
Score Interpretation
The score is displayed as a clean numeric value without extra symbols, making the table easier to read.
General interpretation:
70–100: Strong macro condition
55–69: Positive / improving condition
45–54: Neutral / transition condition
30–44: Weak condition
Below 30: Stress condition
The score should not be interpreted as a direct buy or sell signal. It is a macro regime filter designed to provide context.
Heatmap Color Logic
The table uses a simple and consistent three-color structure:
Positive color: stronger or favorable macro readings
Neutral color: balanced or mid-range readings
Negative color: weaker or unfavorable macro readings
The color system is intentionally matched with the Exogenous Heatmap style, allowing both dashboards to be used together with a consistent visual language.
Each macro field also includes an **Up Good** setting. This allows the user to define whether higher values are favorable or unfavorable for each metric.
For example:
Higher GDP growth is generally positive.
Higher manufacturing activity is generally positive.
Higher liquidity can be positive.
Higher inflation, debt, or rates may be interpreted differently depending on the user’s macro framework.
This flexibility allows the heatmap to be adapted for different economic regimes and analytical preferences.
Auto and Manual Scaling
The indicator includes an automatic macro gradient scale.
When auto scaling is enabled, the heatmap normalizes each metric based on the visible historical table range. This makes the table visually adaptive and easier to compare across different periods.
Manual scaling is also available for users who prefer fixed macro ranges.
This is useful when comparing the same country across different time periods or when the user wants a stable visual reference.
Timeframe and History Controls
Users can select the table period:
Yearly
Quarterly
Monthly
Weekly
Daily
The data can be fetched by:
A fixed number of periods
A selected start date
This gives flexibility for short-term macro monitoring as well as longer-term economic cycle analysis.
Table Customization
The dashboard includes several table display settings:
Show or hide table
Select table position
Select table size
Customize positive, neutral, and negative colors
The table automatically adapts to the chart background and foreground colors for better readability on both dark and light chart themes.
How to Use
This indicator is best used as a macro context tool.
A practical workflow:
1. Select the country you want to analyze.
2. Choose the table period, such as monthly or quarterly.
3. Review the color trend across the macro fields.
4. Watch whether growth, liquidity, tightness, and stability are improving or deteriorating together.
5. Use the composite score as a broad internal macro regime filter.
6. Combine the macro backdrop with price action, trend, liquidity, sector rotation, and risk management.
For example:
A rising score with improving growth and liquidity may support a risk-on environment.
A falling score with weakening growth and tightening conditions may warn of macro deterioration.
A neutral score may indicate a transition period where markets can become more sensitive to new economic data.
Suggested Use Cases
This heatmap can be useful for:
Macro regime analysis
Country-level economic monitoring
Risk-on / risk-off context
Equity index analysis
Bond market context
Currency market macro background
Sector rotation research
Long-term investment cycle analysis
Comparing domestic conditions with external macro pressure when used together with an exogenous heatmap
Important Notes
Economic data can be revised, delayed, or unavailable depending on the country and PulseWire’s data coverage.
Some fields may not exist for every country, so the script uses alternative fields where possible.
The heatmap is designed for macro analysis and educational research. It does not predict price direction by itself and should not be used as a standalone trading system.
Always combine macro signals with technical analysis, market structure, liquidity conditions, and proper risk management.
Disclaimer
This script is for educational and analytical purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.
Markets are influenced by many factors beyond macroeconomic data, including positioning, liquidity, earnings, policy changes, geopolitical events, and sentiment. Use this tool as one layer of a broader decision-making process.
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Exogenous Heatmap [invincible3]Exogenous Heatmap
The Exogenous Heatmap is a multi-country macro and market-performance dashboard designed to help traders and investors monitor external economic forces that may influence currencies, equities, commodities, and broader risk sentiment.
Instead of focusing only on price action from the current chart, this indicator visualizes key exogenous variables across major economies in a clean historical heatmap format. Users can compare countries by interest rates, GDP growth, balance of trade, foreign exchange reserves, and major stock index performance.
The indicator supports two calculation modes:
1. Raw Value
Displays the actual macroeconomic value or stock index performance for each country.
2. Differential vs Base
Compares each country against a selected base country. This is useful for identifying relative macro strength or weakness. For example, if the base country is set to the USA, the indicator shows how Australia, Japan, the UK, Europe, China, and other countries compare against the United States.
The heatmap includes the following datasets:
Interest Rates and Differentials
Displays policy interest rates or interest-rate differentials between countries. This is especially useful for forex analysis because higher relative interest rates can influence capital flows and currency strength.
GDP and Differentials
Displays GDP year-over-year growth or GDP growth differentials. This helps identify which economies are expanding faster or slower relative to the selected base country.
Balance of Trade and Differentials
Displays trade balance data. A stronger trade surplus may indicate external demand strength, while a deficit may reflect import pressure or weaker export competitiveness.
Reserves and Differentials
Displays foreign exchange reserve levels. This can help assess external liquidity strength and a country’s ability to manage currency or balance-of-payment stress.
Stock Index Performance and Differentials
Displays the performance of major stock indexes from leading economies. This adds a global risk-on/risk-off component to the indicator. Strong equity index performance may reflect improving investor sentiment, while weak performance may signal risk aversion.
The default stock index symbols include:
Australia: ASX 200
Canada: TSX Composite
China: Shanghai Composite
Europe: Euro Stoxx 50
Japan: Nikkei 225
New Zealand: NZX 50
Switzerland: SMI
United Kingdom: FTSE 100
United States: S&P 500
Users can manually change these symbols from the settings panel if they prefer alternative benchmarks.
Example 1: Interest Rate Differential
Suppose the selected dataset is Interest Rates and Differentials and the base country is set to USA .
If:
USA interest rate = 5.50%
Japan interest rate = 0.50%
Then Japan’s differential versus the USA is:
0.50% - 5.50% = -5.00 pp
This means Japan’s policy rate is 5.00 percentage points lower than the USA. In the heatmap, this would appear as a negative differential and would be colored toward the negative side of the gradient.
Example 2: Stock Index Performance Differential
Suppose the selected dataset is Stock Index Performance and Differentials and the timeframe is set to Monthly .
If:
USA S&P 500 monthly return = +4.20%
Japan Nikkei 225 monthly return = +2.10%
Then Japan’s stock index performance differential versus the USA is:
2.10% - 4.20% = -2.10 pp
This means Japan’s equity market underperformed the USA by 2.10 percentage points during that monthly period.
Example 3: Raw Stock Index Performance
If the calculation mode is set to Raw Value , the indicator displays each country’s own index return for the selected period.
For example:
USA: +4.20%
Japan: +2.10%
UK: -1.30%
Europe: +0.80%
This allows users to quickly identify which regions are leading or lagging in global equity performance.
Color Interpretation
Positive values are shown using the positive color gradient.
Negative values are shown using the negative color gradient.
Neutral or near-zero values are shown near the neutral color.
The indicator includes both automatic and manual color scaling. Auto Scale adjusts the heatmap based on the strongest visible value, while Manual Scale lets the user set a fixed range for more consistent comparisons.
How Traders Can Use It
Forex traders can use interest-rate and GDP differentials to evaluate relative currency strength.
Macro traders can use trade balance and reserve data to identify external economic pressure or resilience.
Equity and index traders can use global stock index performance to track international risk sentiment.
Commodity traders can use the dashboard as a macro backdrop because global growth, rates, and risk appetite often influence commodity demand and capital flows.
Important Notes
For percentage-based datasets such as interest rates, GDP growth, and stock index returns, differential values are displayed in percentage points, abbreviated as “pp.”
For balance of trade and reserves, raw values may often be more meaningful than differentials because countries may report values in different scales or currencies.
This indicator is designed as a macro and risk-sentiment visualization tool. It should be used together with technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and proper risk management.
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The Investment Clock Orbital GraphThe Investment Clock Orbital Graph is an advanced visualization tool designed to help traders and investors track economic cycles using a dynamic scatter plot of GDP growth vs. CPI inflation rates.
This indicator is a fusion of two powerful PulseWire indicators:
LuxAlgo ’s Relative Strength Scatter Plot – A robust scatter plot for tracking relative strength.
The Investment Clock Indicator – A cycle-based approach to market rotation. This indicator contains more information regarding The Investment Clock.
By combining these approaches, the Investment Clock Orbital Graph enables traders to visualize economic momentum and inflationary trends in a unique, orbital-style scatter plot.
Key Features & Improvements
Orbital Graph Representation – Displays GDP growth and CPI inflation as a dynamic, evolving scatter plot, showing how the economy moves through different phases.
Quadrant-Based Market Regimes – Identifies four key economic phases:
1)🔥 Overheating (High Growth, High Inflation)
2)📉 Stagflation (Low Growth, High Inflation)
3)🤒 Recovery (High Growth, Low Inflation)
4)🎈 Reflation (Low Growth, Low Inflation)
Data-Driven Analysis – Utilizes FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) for accurate real-world GDP & CPI data.
Trailing Path of Economic Evolution – Tracks historical economic cycles over time to show momentum and cyclical movements.
Customizable Parameters – Set sustainable GDP growth and inflation thresholds, adjust trail length, and fine-tune scatter plot resolution.
Auto-Labeled Quadrants & Revised Accurate Market Guidance – Each quadrant includes newly updated tooltips and annotations (like ETF suggestions) to help traders make informed decisions.
Live Macro Forecasting Tool – Helps traders anticipate future market conditions, rate hikes/cuts, and sector rotations.
How to Use for Trading Decisions
The Investment Clock Orbital Graph helps traders and macro investors by identifying market phases and providing insights into asset class performance during different economic conditions.
📌 Step 1: Identify the Current Quadrant
Locate the most recent point on the orbital graph to see if the economy is in Overheating, Stagflation, Recovery, or Reflation.
📌 Step 2: Forecast Market Trends
The trajectory of the points can predict upcoming economic shifts:
Overheating → Stagflation ➡️ Expect economic slowdowns, bearish stock markets.
Stagflation → Reflation ➡️ Interest rate cuts likely, bonds and defensive stocks perform well.
Reflation → Recovery ➡️ Risk-on rally, technology and cyclicals perform best.
Recovery → Overheating ➡️ Commodities surge, inflation rises, and central banks intervene.
📌 Step 3: Align Trading & Investing Strategies
🔥 Overheating – Favor commodities & energy (Oil, Industrial Stocks, Materials).
📉 Stagflation – Favor defensive assets (Cash, Utilities, Healthcare).
🤒 Recovery – Favor growth stocks (Technology, Consumer Discretionary).
🎈 Reflation – Favor bonds, value stocks, and financials.
📌 Step 4: Monitor Trends Over Time
The indicator visualizes economic movement over multiple months, allowing traders to confirm long-term trends vs. short-term noise.
The Investment Clock Orbital Graph is an essential macro trading tool, providing a real-time visualization of economic conditions. By tracking GDP growth vs. CPI inflation, traders and investors can align their portfolios with major macroeconomic shifts, predict sector rotations, and anticipate central bank policy changes. Indicator
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Market Health MonitorThe Market Health Monitor is a comprehensive tool designed to assess and visualize the economic health of a market, providing traders with vital insights into both current and future market conditions. This script integrates a range of critical economic indicators, including unemployment rates, inflation, Federal Reserve funds rates, consumer confidence, and housing market indices, to form a robust understanding of the overall economic landscape.
Drawing on a variety of data sources, the Market Health Monitor employs moving averages over periods of 3, 12, 36, and 120 months, corresponding to quarterly, annual, three-year, and ten-year economic cycles. This selection of timeframes is specifically chosen to capture the nuances of economic movements across different phases, providing a balanced view that is sensitive to both immediate changes and long-term trends.
Key Features:
Economic Indicators Integration: The script synthesizes crucial economic data such as unemployment rates, inflation levels, and housing market trends, offering a multi-dimensional perspective on market health.
Adaptability to Market Conditions: The inclusion of both short-term and long-term moving averages allows the Market Health Monitor to adapt to varying market conditions, making it a versatile tool for different trading strategies.
Oscillator Thresholds for Recession and Growth: The script sets specific thresholds that, when crossed, indicate either potential economic downturns (recessions) or periods of growth (expansions), allowing traders to anticipate and react to changing market conditions proactively.
Color-Coded Visualization: The Market Health Monitor employs a color-coding system for ease of interpretation:
-- A red background signals unhealthy economic conditions, cautioning traders about potential risks.
-- A bright red background indicates a confirmed recession, as declared by the NBER, signaling a critical time for traders to reassess risk exposure.
-- A green background suggests a healthy market with expected economic expansion, pointing towards growth-oriented opportunities.
Comprehensive Market Analysis: By combining various economic indicators, the script offers a holistic view of the market, enabling traders to make well-informed decisions based on a thorough understanding of the economic environment.
Key Criteria and Parameters:
Economic Indicators:
Labor Market: The unemployment rate is a critical indicator of economic health.
High or rising unemployment indicates reduced consumer spending and economic stress.
Inflation: Key for understanding monetary policy and consumer purchasing power.
Persistent high inflation can lead to economic instability, while deflation can signal weak
demand.
Monetary Policy: Reflected by the Federal Reserve funds rate.
Changes in the rate can influence economic activity, borrowing costs, and investor
sentiment.
Consumer Confidence: A predictor of consumer spending and economic activity.
Reflects the public’s perception of the economy
Housing Market: The housing market often leads the economy into recession and recovery.
Weakness here can signal broader economic problems.
Market Data:
Stock Market Indices: Reflect overall investor sentiment and economic
expectations. No gains in a stock market could potentially indicate that economy is
slowing down.
Credit Conditions: Indicated by the tightness of bank lending, signaling risk
perception.
Commodity Insight:
Crude Oil Prices: A proxy for global economic activity.
Indicator Timeframe:
A default monthly timeframe is chosen to align with the release frequency of many economic indicators, offering a balanced view between timely data and avoiding too much noise from short-term fluctuations. Surely, it can be chosen by trader / analyst.
The Market Health Monitor is more than just a trading tool—it's a comprehensive economic guide. It's designed for traders who value an in-depth understanding of the economic climate. By offering insights into both current conditions and future trends, it encourages traders to navigate the markets with confidence, whether through turbulent times or in periods of growth. This tool doesn't just help you follow the market—it helps you understand it.
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Recession Warning Traffic LightThis is an indicator that uses 6 different metrics to determine the combined probability of a recession and compares the high probability warning periods against actual historical periods of recession.
GREEN tells us that the referenced recession indicators are not exhibiting any warning. Observe the long stretches of “all-green” in between recessionary periods in the chart above.
RED will show a full-on warning level for that particular recession indicator, signaling that monitoring of this sector is clearly showing a problem – which has in the past, reliably exhibited itself as a forewarning of recessions.
Adding green and red together can help determine a combined probability of recession.
IMPORTANT: Your chart should be on 1d and set to SPX , DJI ,or NDQ indices
Precious metals: This indicator calculates the relative prices of Gold & rhodium. Gold is a flight-to-quality asset. Rhodium is the rarest of precious industrial metals and prices spike when the economy is heating up. In front of a recession, the upper relative movement of rhodium precedes gold.
Stock markets: This indicator compares closing prices to growth rate curves of the SPX. This indication is the noisiest but tells us very well when the recession has ended. Stock market indices, which respond to “smart money” moving out of markets when the other indicators begin to warn of recession, or when markets become overheated and rise to historically unsustainable levels.
Yield curve: This indicator compares the 3m & 10y treasuries and detects yield curve inversions. Interest rates are controlled by the Federal Reserve and by the purchasers in the Federal Treasury auction markets, which together create the treasury yield curve. This inversion is the most reliable recession indicator. These happen during a flight to quality.
Federal Reserve: This indicator measures GDP and detects contraction which is technically a recession. This is usually one of the last indicators to enter a Warning state, and it could be 6 months delayed simply confirming what may have already been projected.
Money Supply. This indicator measures the M2 money supply, which typically grows about 1% per calendar quarter. When this shrinks, it's tapping the brakes on the economy. This can also lead to yield curve inversion. This is also a measure of inflation and its effects on the aggregate money supply (liquid capital) available for short-term economic activity, or which can be directed into the purchase of long-term, less liquid assets.
Leading Economic factors: There is a whole basket of leading economic indicators that, as collections, reflect overall growth or contraction of economic activity. These indicators include measures of level and growth in productivity, employment, housing, consumer confidence, industrial purchasing confidence, and much more. These indicators may or may not be detached from the broader economy, and often provide up to 6 months of foresight. For more information please visit www.conference-board.org
Actual Recession: Central Bank indicators are published by the Federal Reserve and reflect their own analysis of national and regional economic health, as well as their calculations of the likelihood of a recession. The Federal Reserve has a recession ticker which is used to plot periods of actual recessions on this indicator for comparison. Indicator
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