Federal Funds ForecastThe Federal Funds Forecast is an all-in-one, forward-looking interest rate monitoring tool that tracks market expectations for the federal funds rate. It provides a comprehensive view of the Federal Reserve’s policy structure, overnight funding markets, and future rate expectations within a single framework, enabling real-time monitoring of funding conditions and evolving policy expectations. It features adjustable parameters and a clear, color-coded table that allows users to quickly assess the current market outlook and how expectations have evolved over time.
At its core, the model displays the main rates that define the US overnight funding system. The Federal Reserve implements monetary policy by establishing a target range for the federal funds rate. This range is maintained through a policy corridor defined by the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) rate at the upper bound and the Reverse Repo (RRP) rate at the lower bound, which serve as a ceiling and floor for overnight funding rates. Within this corridor, the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR), Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), and Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) are plotted to show how market rates trade relative to the Federal Reserve’s target range:
SOFR = Volume-weighted average rate of overnight borrowing backed by US Treasury collateral in the repo market, representing the broadest measure of secured funding.
EFFR = Volume-weighted average rate of overnight unsecured lending between banks in the federal funds market, which the Federal Reserve targets to implement monetary policy.
IORB = Interest rate paid by the Federal Reserve on reserve balances held at the Fed, acting as the primary anchor for overnight rates, as eligible banks can earn this rate risk-free.
Stress in the overnight funding market is measured as the spread between SOFR and IORB. Negative spreads typically reflect ample liquidity, as cash-rich lenders without access to IORB compete to lend in the repo market, pushing SOFR below IORB. Positive spreads typically reflect tighter conditions, as strong demand for funding pushes SOFR above IORB, creating an incentive to lend reserves. Sustained positive spreads typically signal funding stress, as persistent demand for cash is not met by sufficient lending supply, reflecting constraints that prevent full arbitrage of the spread. Persistent stress conditions are highlighted using optional background shading.
In addition to current conditions, the indicator displays the market’s implied path for future policy rates based on the Fed funds futures market. This forward path is shown as a dotted projection line extending from the current EFFR over the selected horizon, providing a clear view of whether the market is pricing in rate cuts, hikes, or a relatively stable policy path. The projection label summarizes the expected move in basis points and translates it into an approximate number of cuts or hikes, while the table provides a more detailed breakdown across multiple time horizons.
The table is divided into two main sections following the first row, which displays the current SOFR–IORB spread in basis points. The first section displays the implied difference between expected future rates and the current EFFR across 3M, 6M, 9M, 12M, 15M, and 18M horizons. Green indicates lower implied future rates, while red indicates higher implied future rates. The second section displays the difference between current expectations and prior expectations 1W, 2W, 3W, or 4W ago, based on the repricing period selected in the menu. Green reflects a shift in expectations toward easier policy, while red reflects a shift in expectations toward tighter policy.
In summary, the Federal Funds Forecast is a comprehensive monetary policy tool designed to provide investors with a clear view of the current US policy rate environment, overnight funding conditions, and market expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. While the model offers valuable insight into expectations derived from trading activity in the Fed funds futures market, these expectations reflect conditions at a specific point in time and can change rapidly as incoming data and Federal Reserve communication reshape the US monetary policy outlook. Indicator
FOMC Federal Fund Rate Tracker [MHA Finverse]The FOMC Rate Tracker is a comprehensive indicator that visualizes Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and tracks market behavior during FOMC meeting periods. This tool helps traders analyze historical rate changes and anticipate market movements around Federal Open Market Committee announcements.
Key Features:
• Visual FOMC Periods - Automatically highlights each FOMC meeting period with colored boxes spanning from announcement to the next meeting
• Complete Rate Data - Displays actual rates, forecasts, previous rates, and rate differences for every meeting from 2021-2026
• Multiple Color Modes - Choose between cycle colors for visual distinction or rate difference colors (green for hikes, red for cuts, gray for holds)
• Smart Filtering - Filter periods by rate hikes only, cuts only, no change, or surprise moves to focus on specific market conditions
• Performance Metrics - Track average returns during rate hikes, cuts, and holds to identify historical patterns
• Volatility Analysis - Measure and compare price volatility across different FOMC periods
• Statistical Dashboard - View total hikes, cuts, holds, surprises, and longest hold streaks at a glance
• Built-in Alerts - Get notified 1 day before FOMC meetings, on meeting day, or when rates change
How It Works:
The indicator divides your chart into distinct periods between FOMC meetings, with each period showing a labeled box containing the meeting date, actual rate, forecast, previous rate, and rate difference. Future meetings are marked as "UPCOMING" to help you prepare for scheduled announcements.
Use Cases:
- Analyze how markets typically react to rate hikes vs. cuts
- Identify volatility patterns around FOMC announcements
- Backtest strategies based on monetary policy cycles
- Plan trades around upcoming Federal Reserve meetings
- Study the impact of surprise rate decisions on price action
Customization Options:
- Adjustable box transparency and outlines
- Customizable label sizes and colors
- Toggle individual dashboards on/off
- Filter specific types of rate decisions
- Configure alert preferences
This indicator is ideal for traders who incorporate fundamental analysis and monetary policy into their trading decisions. The historical data provides context for understanding market reactions to Federal Reserve actions. Indicator
PCE Inflation Monitor (Change YoY & MoM)📊 PCE Inflation Monitor - The Fed's Most Important Metric
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and THE metric they target for their 2% inflation goal. If you want to predict Fed policy, you need to watch PCE.
🎯 KEY FEATURES:
- Dual Perspective Analysis:
- Year-over-Year (YoY): Histogram bars showing annual PCE inflation
- Month-over-Month (MoM): Line overlay showing monthly consumption price changes
- Visual Reference System:
- Dashed line at 2% (Fed's official PCE inflation target)
- Dotted line at 0.17% (equivalent monthly target)
- Color-coded bars: Red above Fed target, Green below target
- Real-Time Data Table:
- Current PCE Index value
- YoY inflation rate vs. Fed's 2% target
- MoM inflation rate with color coding
- Exact deviation from Fed target (critical for policy predictions)
- Automated Alerts:
- PCE crosses Fed's 2% target (major policy signal!)
- MoM crosses monthly target
- Stay informed of Fed-relevant inflation changes
📈 WHY PCE IS DIFFERENT (AND MORE IMPORTANT):
PCE vs. CPI differences:
- Flexible basket: PCE adjusts for substitution (beef → chicken if prices rise)
- Broader coverage: Includes healthcare paid by insurance/government
- Lower readings: Typically 0.2-0.4% below CPI
- Fed's choice: Explicitly stated as their target metric
Most importantly: When Powell speaks about "our 2% target," he means PCE, not CPI!
🔍 TRADING IMPLICATIONS:
PCE Above 2% (Red Zone):
→ Fed under pressure to maintain/raise rates
→ Hawkish policy stance likely
→ Negative for growth stocks, crypto
→ Positive for USD, bearish for gold
PCE Below 2% (Green Zone):
→ Fed has flexibility to cut rates
→ Dovish policy stance possible
→ Positive for risk assets, growth stocks
→ Negative for USD, bullish for commodities
PCE Approaching 2% from Above:
→ Fed "mission accomplished" narrative
→ Rate cut cycle becomes possible
→ Major bullish signal for equities/crypto
💡 ADVANCED STRATEGIES:
1. Fed Meeting Preparation: Check PCE before FOMC meetings for policy clues
2. Dot Plot Predictions: PCE trend determines Fed's rate forecast updates
3. Pivot Timing: When PCE MoM turns negative, Fed pivot becomes realistic
4. Press Conference Analysis: Compare Powell's comments to PCE deviation
🎯 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
- 2.0% YoY: Fed's official target - crossing this level is major news
- 2.5% YoY: "Uncomfortably high" - Fed forced to stay restrictive
- 3.0% YoY: "Crisis mode" - Fed turns very hawkish
- 1.5% YoY: "Below target" - Rate cuts become likely
🔄 COMBINE WITH:
- CPI: Public perception vs. Fed's metric (often diverge)
- Core PCE: Even more important (excludes food/energy volatility)
- Fed Funds Rate: Is Fed responding appropriately to PCE?
📊 DATA SOURCE:
Official PCE data from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), updated monthly typically in the last week of each month (after CPI/PPI releases).
🎨 CUSTOMIZATION:
Fully customizable:
- Toggle YoY/MoM displays
- Adjust Fed target if needed
- Customize colors
- Show/hide absolute PCE values
Perfect for: Fed watchers, macro traders, policy analysts, and serious investors who want to predict monetary policy changes before they happen.
⚠️ CRITICAL INSIGHT: While media focuses on CPI, the Fed focuses on PCE. Trade what the Fed trades, not what the headlines say.
🎓 Pro Tip: Fed members often mention "Core PCE" (excluding food/energy). Consider adding that indicator alongside this one for complete Fed policy analysis. Indicator
Fed Rate Change Impact📊 Fed Rate Change Impact — Macro Event-Driven Indicator
Fed Rate Change Impact is an advanced indicator designed to analyze the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate changes on financial markets. It integrates event-driven logic with dynamic visualization, percentage diagnostics, and multi-asset selection, offering a clear and customizable view of post-event effects.
🔍 Key Features 📅 Preloaded Fed Events : Includes over 30 historical rate cut (↓) and hike (↑) dates from 2008 to 2024.
📈 Post-Event Analysis : Calculates the percentage change of the selected asset 5, 10, and 30 days after each event.
📌 Vertical Chart Lines : Visually highlights each event directly on the chart, with dynamic coloring (red for hikes, green for cuts).
📋 Diagnostic Table : Displays real-time impact for each event, with color-coded values and a compact layout.
🧠 Interactive Filter: Choose to display only hikes, only cuts, or both.
🧭 Flexible Asset Selection : Analyze the current chart asset, pick from a predefined list, or manually input any ticker via input.symbol().
🎯 Contextual Highlighting : The table highlights the analyzed asset if it matches the active chart symbol.
⚙️ Customizable Parameters lookahead5, lookahead10, lookahead30: Define the time horizon for measuring post-event impact.
eventFilter : Choose which type of events to display.
presetAsset / customAsset : Select or input the asset to analyze.
🧪 Recommended Use Cases Macroeconomic analysis on indices, commodities, crypto, and forex
Studying delayed effects of rate changes on sensitive assets
Building event-driven strategies or diagnostic overlays
Visual backtesting and cross-asset comparison
🧠 Technical Notes The indicator is compatible with overlay=true and works best on Daily timeframe.
The table automatically adapts to the number of events and includes visual padding for improved readability.
All calculations are performed in real time and require no external data. Indicator
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US CPIIntroducing "US CPI" Indicator
The "US CPI" indicator, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the United States, is a valuable tool for analyzing inflation trends in the U.S. economy. This indicator is derived from official data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is widely recognized as a key measure of inflationary pressures.
What is CPI?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services over time. It is an essential economic indicator used to gauge inflationary trends and assess changes in the cost of living.
How is "US CPI" Calculated?
The "US CPI" indicator in this script retrieves CPI data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) using the FRED:CPIAUCSL symbol. It calculates the rate of change in CPI over a specified period (typically 12 months) and applies technical analysis tools like moving averages (SMA and EMA) for trend analysis and smoothing.
Why Use "US CPI" Indicator?
1. Inflation Analysis: Monitoring CPI trends provides insights into the rate of inflation, which is crucial for understanding the overall economic health and potential impact on monetary policy.
2. Policy Implications: Changes in CPI influence decisions by policymakers, central banks, and investors regarding interest rates, fiscal policies, and asset allocation.
3. Market Sentiment: CPI data often impacts market sentiment, influencing trading strategies across various asset classes including currencies, bonds, and equities.
Key Features:
1. Customizable Smoothing: The indicator allows users to apply exponential moving average (EMA) smoothing to CPI data for clearer trend identification.
2. Visual Representation: The plotted line visually represents the inflation rate based on CPI data, helping traders and analysts assess inflationary pressures at a glance.
Sources and Data Integrity:
The CPI data used in this indicator is sourced directly from FRED, ensuring reliability and accuracy. The script incorporates robust security protocols to handle data requests and maintain data integrity in a trading environment.
In conclusion, the "US CPI" indicator offers a comprehensive view of inflation dynamics in the U.S. economy, providing traders, economists, and policymakers with valuable insights for informed decision-making and risk management.
Disclaimer: This indicator and accompanying analysis are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with professional advisors before making investment decisions. Indicator
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[Daveatt] BEST Quandl Federal Reserve Economic Dashboard 1.0Hello traders
I hope you're all doing well and the quarantine will soon be over in your respective countries.
We all have strong opinions on how it could have been handled by our respective governments but the facts cannot be contested.
And basically, they acted based on a lot of unknown data. Obviously, we can throw away some conspiracy theories but what's the point really?
Conspiracy theorists never ever ever ever made money - Permabulls did historically.
Fight only for what you can change, in other words, YOURSELF. Those 2 months were tremendous for me to adapt, learn, and pivot my different businesses.
I believe that humans are wired to one thing - transform themselves. You'll never be able to change our governments, the banks, the FED printing money (making it the dollar less and less valuable)
Transforming yourself and your life is the only (and the most powerful) hedge you have
Yes, you didn't ask for it, this is not fair. Life is not fair. Only YOU can make it fair for yourself
That's why I stopped listening to the media, social media and all the news related to COVID
Context
I wanted to play with the new Quandl utility function provided by PulseWire
With this dashboard, I tried to build a Quandl dashboard based on the Federal Reserve Economic Data data
I pulled out a few metrics from this Quandl page: www.quandl.com
"Federal Reserve Economic Data" or FRED is a project by the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.
FRED collects over 200,000 US and international economic time series, from 69 different sources, on a single website. Data coverage includes all major areas of macroeconomic analysis: growth, inflation, employment, interest rates, exchange rates, production and consumption, income and expenditure, savings and investment, and more.
What can you do with the indicator
First, kudos to Pinecoders . I used his color scale and f_print functions to display those labels at the right.
Script Reference:
You can change from the indicator settings:
- Labels horizontal position
- Labels size (tiny, normal, big, huge)
- Labels colors
Final words
Tough times are ahead as we can see from those numbers.
For those having an online business, it's a fantastic period despite the terrible events. Use it at your advantage to learn and share your vibes and knowledge with your audience
Stay brave,
Dave Indicator
