Expectation Breakers [QuantVue]In technical analysis, an "Expectation Breaker" refers to a market event where price action defies typical patterns and anticipated movements, signaling potential shifts in market sentiment and direction.
This indicator looks to take advantage of these opportunities by identifying 2 types of Expectation Breakers: Downside Reversal Buybacks and Upside Reversal Sellbacks.
Downside Reversal
A downside reversals occur when a stock reaches a new high for the user defined lookback period (65 bars by default), and then experiences a larger-than-average drop and closes near its lows. This usually indicates that the market has overextended itself. The expectation is that there will be 2-3 bars of significant selling, following the downside reversal.
However, a notable sign of strength is if the stock rebounds and closes above the downside reversal bar's high within 1-3 bars. This is known as a Downside Reversal Buyback. A rapid recovery following a downside reversal is a powerful bullish indicator, breaking the expectation of lower prices. The quicker price recovers from a downside reversal, the more meaningful it is. Such a swift rebound suggests that the market's strength was underestimated, as downside reversals typically signal a short-term decline.
Upside Reversal
An upside reversal occurs when a stock reaches a new low for the user-defined lookback period (65 bars by default), and then experiences a larger-than-average rise and closes near its highs. This usually indicates that the market has overextended itself to the downside. The expectation is that there will be 2-3 bars of significant buying, following the upside reversal.
However, a notable sign of weakness is if the stock falls back and closes below the upside reversal bar's low within 1-3 bars. This is known as a Upside Reversal Sellback. A rapid fallback following an upside reversal is a powerful bearish indicator, breaking the expectation of higher prices. The quicker price falls back from an upside reversal, the more meaningful it is. Such a swift fallback suggests that the market's weakness was underestimated, as upside reversals typically signal a short-term rally.
The Expectation Breakers indicator identifies these opportunities by first identifying new highs and lows within a defined lookback period. It then compares the true range (TR), average true range (ATR), and closing range to confirm the significance of these reversals. The use of TR and ATR ensures that the reversals are substantial enough to indicate a genuine shift in market sentiment, helping to identify when price action breaks expectations.
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pricing_tableThis script helps you evaluate the fair value of an option. It poses the question "if I bought or sold an option under these circumstances in the past, would it have expired in the money, or worthless? What would be its expected value, at expiration, if I opened a position at N standard deviations, given the volatility forecast, with M days to expiration at the close of every previous trading day?"
The default (and only) "hv" volatility forecast is based on the assumption that today's volatility will hold for the next M days.
To use this script, only one step is mandatory. You must first select days to expiration. The script will not do anything until this value is changed from the default (-1). These should be CALENDAR days. The script will convert to these to business days for forecasting and valuation, as trading in most contracts occurs over ~250 business days per year.
Adjust any other variables as desired:
model: the volatility forecasting model
window: the number of periods for a lagged model (e.g. hv)
filter: a filter to remove forecasts from the sample
filter type: "none" (do not use the filter), "less than" (keep forecasts when filter < volatility), "greater than" (keep forecasts when filter > volatility)
filter value: a whole number percentage. see example below
discount rate: to discount the expected value to present value
precision: number of decimals in output
trim outliers: omit upper N % of (generally itm) contracts
The theoretical values are based on history. For example, suppose days to expiration is 30. On every bar, the 30 days ago N deviation forecast value is compared to the present price. If the price is above the forecast value, the contract has expired in the money; otherwise, it has expired worthless. The theoretical value is the average of every such sample. The itm probabilities are calculated the same way.
The default (and only) volatility model is a 20 period EWMA derived historical (realized) volatility. Feel free to extend the script by adding your own.
The filter parameters can be used to remove some forecasts from the sample.
Example A:
filter:
filter type: none
filter value:
Default: the filter is not used; all forecasts are included in the the sample.
Example B:
filter: model
filter type: less than
filter value: 50
If the model is "hv", this will remove all forecasts when the historical volatility is greater than fifty.
Example C:
filter: rank
filter type: greater than
filter value: 75
If the model volatility is in the top 25% of the previous year's range, the forecast will be included in the sample apart from "model" there are some common volatility indexes to choose from, such as Nasdaq (VXN), crude oil (OVX), emerging markets (VXFXI), S&P; (VIX) etc.
Refer to the middle-right table to see the current forecast value, its rank among the last 252 days, and the number of business days until
expiration.
NOTE: This script is meant for the daily chart only. Indicator
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